Amid the recent market recovery, Solana (SOL) has jumped roughly 10% from last week’s lows, reclaiming the $82 level and retesting a major resistance. However, some market observers have warned that the rally could be short-lived if the cryptocurrency doesn’t turn a key level into support in the coming days. Related Reading: Ethereum Reclaims $2,200, But Analyst Says It’s Not Time To Celebrate Yet – Here’s Why Solana Price In ‘Consolidation Trap’ On Thursday, Solana surged 2.5% to try to reclaim the $84 area after losing this area on Wednesday night. The altcoin has been trading between the $76-$92 levels since February, moving within the lower half of this range over the past two weeks. Ali Martinez highlighted a structural pattern that has been “remarkably consistent” since October 2025. Notably, the analyst explained that Solana has been repeating a three-step cycle every time it has lost momentum over the past six months. According to Martinez, the pattern begins with the reclaim of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is followed by the rapid failure to hold the 50-day SMA as support. Lastly, SOL enters the “consolidation trap”, a brief, sideways “complacency” period before the actual leg down starts. As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency recorded this pattern in November 2025 and January 2026, when it dropped below the 50-day SMA and consolidated for weeks before the next major sell-off, ultimately resolving lower and reaching a new local bottom. Solana moved above the 50-day SMA in mid-March, when it hit its local top of $97, and has since dropped below it. Now, the altcoin is in its consolidation phase, “drifting sideways” between $79-$81, and sitting below the key SMA near the $86 mark. “If this pattern holds, this sideways movement is not ‘stabilization’—it is the coiling of a new leg down. Based on previous instances, a failure to reclaim the $86 level quickly could project a move toward the $52,” Martinez asserted. SOL Breakdown Imminent? Market observer Leviathan noted that Solana has retested the lower area of its local range seven times since February, and every bounce has gotten weaker after each retest. At the time of writing, the price has been rejected from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that a retest and breakdown from the key $76-$80 support area could be next. “Historically, the more a support level gets tested, the weaker it becomes. Watch this level closely,” he asserted. Analyst Crypto Lens shared a similar outlook, pointing to a potential bearish formation on SOL’s chart. Per the post, the cryptocurrency has been trading in a bearish flag pattern since early February, and broke down from the formation when it dropped below the $81 area in late March. Related Reading: XRP Leads Crypto Funds $224M Rebound With Largest Weekly Inflows Since December This structure also developed in late 2025, leading to a 54% correction after Solana broke down from the pattern. After the recent bounce, the altcoin is retesting the pattern’s lower boundary from support, which could turn this level into resistance if momentum doesn’t hold. “This isn’t random price action, it’s a pattern,” the analyst warned, “If this continues, SOL could be heading toward the $45 zone.” Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As Solana’s (SOL) price attempts to hold a crucial support area, an analyst has warned investors that the highly anticipated “Solana season” might not happen as the altcoin risks a massive price crash. Related Reading: Has The Crypto Treasury Bubble Burst? Tom Lee Thinks So Solana Risks ‘Serious Downside’ On Friday, Solana followed the rest of the market and fell below the $180 support to retest the recent lows. The cryptocurrency started this week by recovering from last week’s correction to its two-month low of $168, briefly attempting to reclaim the $210 resistance on Tuesday. However, the recent market volatility has seen the altcoin lose the $200 level again and retest a crucial support area that could determine SOL’s next move. Amid this performance, analyst Crypto Bullet shared a bearish outlook for Solana, suggesting that a 75% crash from current prices might be coming. In Q2, the market watcher warned that the cryptocurrency’s bull market was “likely over,” highlighting its structure in the higher timeframe chart. Per the post, SOL “had a clear 5-wave Impulse to the upside that ended in January with $TRUMP coin blow off top,” when the altcoin hit its all-time high (ATH) of $293. Based on this, he forecasted that Solana would see an ABC corrective wave pattern in the coming months, with a potential bounce to the $240-$250 area for the B wave, before “the most painful wave down (C).” The analyst affirmed that the cryptocurrency has likely completed the B wave, although it could have a bounce to a new higher high before the breakdown. “The monthly candle still has 2 weeks to close green, but frankly speaking, Solana looks cooked (whether we get a higher high to trap more people or not),” he affirmed. Crypto Bullet cautioned SOL holders that if the C wave has started, they “should be prepared for some serious downside” in the mid-term toward the $40 target. Can SOL Retest $210? Analyst Ted Pillows also cast a warning for investors, asserting that “Solana treasury companies are in free fall right now.” He suggested that the recent dump is partially driven by the halt in institutional bidding. “Until these companies show some recovery, I think Solana’s price recovery will be difficult,” the post read. Despite the bearish predictions, some market watchers consider that SOL’s bullish outlook is still in play. Man of Bitcoin highlighted that Solana’s price is potentially forming a 1-2 setup, which could send its price back to the $200-$210 area. To the analyst, as long as the price holds above the $170 support level, the bullish scenario could continue to play out. Meanwhile, Crypto Yapper noted that Solana is currently retesting a double support in the daily chart, which could set the stage for a 15%-20% bounce. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For ‘Rapid Expansion’ As Price Holds $3,900 Support – 30% Rally Coming? Per the post, SOL’s price is retesting the lower boundary of a 2-month falling wedge formation and the crucial $170-$180 horizontal level, which has served as a major support and resistance level throughout the year. Holding these levels in the daily and weekly timeframe could spark a rebound and propel the price to retest the falling wedge’s upper boundary and the crucial horizontal resistance around the $210-220 mark, the analyst noted. As of this writing, SOL is trading at $182, a 12.6% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com