Crypto analyst Sherlock has revealed how a Bitcoin price crash to $63,000 could play out. He highlighted key levels to watch and zones where traders should look to short BTC in preparation for this potential downtrend. Key Levels To Watch With Bitcoin Price Crash To $63,000 On The Cards In an X post, Sherlock told traders to look for a short setup around $80,000 if the Bitcoin price only takes the equal highs around this range and then gets rejected. However, he added that if BTC breaks above April’s high at $79,485 before May 5, traders shouldn’t short immediately; instead, they should wait for breakout buyers to chase the pump. Related Reading: Bitcoin Closes 2 Green Monthly Candles: Here’s What Historical Data Says Is Coming Next The analyst further highlighted the $84,000 to $85,000 range as the ideal zone to short if the Bitcoin price reclaims the April high, as he expects a short squeeze to happen around that range. This suggests that BTC could still rally to around $85,000 before a decline, since the leading crypto has successfully broken above the April high. Sherlock’s accompanying chart showed that a Bitcoin price crash to around $63,000 could happen within a month after BTC taps the $85,000 level. The analyst also explained why he is confident the leading crypto could still crash despite its current bullish momentum. He noted that since 2020, BTC has always recorded a red monthly candle in May whenever the price failed to break above April’s high in the first five days of May. However, this trend broke last year when the Bitcoin price surpassed April’s high on May 1 and then recorded another 16.9% rally to a local high of $111,980 by May 22. This is notably why BTC could still rally to around $85,000 before the crash occurs. BTC Looks Ready For More Upside Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said in an X post that the Bitcoin price looks ready for more upside, with the potential to rally to as high as $93,000. He noted that BTC broke above $79,000, indicating a clearly upward trend, although intraday corrections are possible. The analyst alluded to flows into Bitcoin ETFs, with these funds recording over $1.6 billion in inflows since the start of this month. Related Reading: This Signal Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bottom, Here’s What It’s Saying Now Van de Poppe also mentioned that there is a lot of interest in BTC at the moment, which is why he believes that the rotation from gold to Bitcoin is definitely taking place. He added that the current uptrend is unlikely to stall anytime soon, with the current construction. This is why he believes there is room for a rally between $86,000 and $88,000, and most likely between $91,000 and $93,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,200, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A crypto analyst who previously warned traders and investors that the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price surge could be a fluke has shared a new update. Confirming that his earlier prediction was accurate, the analyst now provides insight on where Bitcoin is really headed as it continues to navigate the ongoing bear market. Where The Bitcoin Price Is Headed Next DeFi researcher and market analyst Sherlock has taken to X to share a fresh update on an analysis he published earlier last week. In this new report, Sherlock presented a rather foreboding Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is heading toward new lows around $53,000 soon. Related Reading: Pundit Shares Everything To Understand About Bitcoin, ‘This Cycle IS Different’ He emphasized that the $53,000 level was not a random bearish target but a point established after multiple data signals converged, which also corresponds to Bitcoin’s next weekly support level. According to Sherlock, Bitcoin’s record high last week near $76,000 was a deviation he had anticipated despite some traders hoping that the rebound could become a sustainable breakout. The analyst noted that the weekly candle on the chart is expected to confirm this deviation trend if it closes below $72,500. Sherlock also drew parallels to a January price movement, when the Bitcoin price climbed to $94,500 before crashing by approximately 38%. Usually, in crypto market terms, this type of action is called a “fakeout,” which is when the price briefly breaches key resistance levels, enticing traders to enter positions, before rapidly reversing in the opposite direction. Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $68,100, more than 10% below its previous high of $76,000 set last week. The cryptocurrency suffered a sharp, unexpected collapse in a single day following reports of a hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve (FED). After briefly dipping toward the $70,000 level that day, Bitcoin has continued on a downward trajectory. Data from CoinMarketCap also indicate that BTC’s decline was further accelerated by a surge in geopolitical tensions, after US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, triggering a broader sell-off across risk assets. A Look Back At BTC’s $76,000 Fluke In his previous analysis, Sherlock had cautioned traders not to get baited by short-term Bitcoin price spikes. He noted that during the last major deviation in January 2026, many traders went long, only to incur significant losses after Bitcoin’s price collapsed over the next five weeks. Related Reading: Is This The Bitcoin Price Bottom Or A Fakeout? Analyst Reveals When You Shouldn’t Be Excited The analyst had warned that if Bitcoin fails to close above $74,500 on the weekly chart, its brief rebound would be nothing more than a deviation, not a true breakout. Sherlock added that, with the FOMC meeting last week and market consensus expecting another interest-rate pause, the outlook for Bitcoin is far from bullish. He described Bitcoin’s previous rebound as a trap, likely engineered to lure investors and traders into long positions prematurely. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price action is struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands, Bitcoin is now moving in a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are undecided on its next direction. Some see the current structure as a base for another push higher, but others warn that any bounce could invite new selling. Crypto analyst Sherlock is among the cautious voices, arguing on X that a rally to between $72,000 and $76,000 may not be a recovery but a kill zone for Bitcoin bulls. The $76,000 Breakeven Wall Crypto analyst Sherlock is of the notion that any Bitcoin price recovery to $76,000 from here might not actually be a good thing. Sherlock’s argument is based on the Bitcoin holdings of Strategy. At the time of writing, the company holds 714,644 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,052. That stash represents roughly 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist. Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance Now that Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, Strategy’s position is significantly underwater, and the company is sitting at an estimated unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion at current prices. In the analyst’s view, every push to the $74,000 to $76,000 range brings this large concentration of supply closer to breakeven. Breakeven levels often act as selling zones. Based on that perspective, the $76,000 area could be risky because it brings Strategy’s position back to its average entry price, and many large holders might consider reducing exposure. That said, there is no indication that Strategy plans to sell. The company has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of offloading its Bitcoin and has even emphasized that its balance sheet could withstand a severe downturn, including a scenario where the Bitcoin price drops below $10,000. ETF Pressure And Bitcoin Cost Basis Sherlock also pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETFs as another source of pressure that might lead to a bull trap. As it stands, about 1.28 million BTC are currently held in these funds, with an estimated average entry price between $84,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Could A Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000 Wipe Out Strategy? Saylor Shares What To Expect Since late 2025, these ETFs have recorded more than $6 billion in net outflows, and the Bitcoin price might face another pressure even if it reaches the average entry price. He also noted that about 63% of invested Bitcoin wealth has a cost basis above $88,000, meaning a large share of buyers in 2025 are sitting on losses, and a rally to their entry levels could also be a bull trap. Therefore, a climb into the $72,000 to $76,000 range could be a bull trap. If it doesn’t, then the next trap could be around $88,000. That said, if every breakeven level triggered selling, then Bitcoin might never form a bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,980. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com