The recent Bitcoin rally may be driven by real spot demand on Coinbase. Data indicating elevated spot activity on Coinbase suggests that this move higher is bolstered by direct purchases rather than leveraged positioning in derivatives markets. This distinction matters because Spot buying reflects a real capital commitment, not a temporary bet. Why Risk Management When Demand Is Structural The Bitcoin rally since Sunday’s Powell subpoena news has been largely linked to Coinbase spot buyers. Crypto trader Alex Krüger has highlighted on X that both the Adjusted Coinbase Premium and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) show steady spot accumulation, which is exactly why this has been a true hated rally even among bitcoiners. For over a month, the dominant narrative in every crypto chat room has been that BTC is lagging while equities and commodities are moving upward. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know However, the fun fact is that equities are not accurate, but 40% of the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor’s 500) stocks have actually closed red in 2025, (39.2% to be precise). Perception is doing a lot of work here, and the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) move on Powell represented a major macro litmus test for BTC. Kruger claims that the BTC long-term value proposition is about protecting against the tail risk of central bank profligacy. On Monday, BTC surged upward, although the move was just a little surge. According to Krüger, the BTC key battlefield remains the 50-week moving average (WMA), which is currently around $101,420. Meanwhile, the trader is looking to take some profits into short liquidations right above the $100,000 mark. Why Bitcoin Benefits First From Institutional Flows The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set for markup today, January 15th, 2026, in the Senate Banking Committee. According to the update by BTC_road_to200k on X (Formally Twitter), this is where the lawmakers will debate and shape the final version of the bill before it moves forward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Stays Pinned Above Support, Setting Up a Bigger Move This matters because the art aims to clear up the ongoing regulatory uncertainty between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has been a major source of hesitation for large institutional players looking to move into Bitcoin and other digital assets. Furthermore, the Clarity Act will be a turning point as it aims to clear rules that will bring more confidence to banks, pension funds, and large investors, which often translates into higher demand and stronger price momentum for BTC. As the regulatory clouds lift, the market might start experiencing a renewed wave of institutional money flowing in, and that’s obviously bullish for BTC. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Every recent Dogecoin recovery attempt has met overhead pressure, and this has kept the price action capped below $0.15. A look at the price chart shows the recent price action is part of a broader downtrend that has been playing out for the past three months, and the meme coin is about to end the year in red. However, a longer-term technical analysis suggests that the calm phase could be part of a much larger setup. According to the analysis, Dogecoin may be following a recurring fractal rhythm tied to the number seven. This repeating timing structure points to a much larger upside target for the meme coin over the coming years, stretching as high as $10. A Recurring Seven Rhythm Across Markets The foundation of the technical analysis is based on the idea that different assets tend to pivot in repeating time-based fractals of seven. This phenomenon has been observed in markets ranging from gold to the S&P 500, where important tops and bottoms often align around similar intervals of seven. Bitcoin’s historical behavior is highlighted as a key reference point, particularly the 2021 double top, which formed seven months apart and is an important transition in its cycle. Related Reading: The Dogecoin Cycle Fractal That Shows Where The Price Is Headed Next This same rhythm becomes apparent when mapped onto Dogecoin. Particularly, Dogecoin topped roughly seven months before Bitcoin during the last cycle, then lagged Bitcoin by another seven months during subsequent phases. Even Dogecoin’s rise from the start of its macro Elliott Wave 1 is framed within this same seven-month timing structure, showing that its major turning points have been surprisingly consistent. The chart shared alongside the analysis shows a sequence of price expansions and consolidations that unfold in roughly seven-month blocks since July 2023, each characterized by either uptrends or downtrends. Now that the traditional four-year crypto cycle shows signs of losing its influence, the analyst proposed that a transition may be happening toward a longer, seven-year rhythm from macro bottom to macro top. Under this lens, Dogecoin’s current position is more like a mid-cycle consolidation. How The Fractal Points To A $10 Target Using the same fractal spacing projected forward, the analysis extends Dogecoin’s long-term trajectory into the next major cycle window. The green projection box on the chart illustrates a future expansion phase that mirrors earlier rallies but on a larger scale, consistent with the idea of a bigger seven-year cycle. If Dogecoin continues to respect the same timing and channel structure, the projected upside region converges between the $7 to $10 zone over the next few years. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s 53,000% Surge Shows Renewed Interest, But Why Is DOGE Price Lagging? The first move in this case would be a return to bullish momentum over the coming months, and then a reclaim above the resistance trendline just below $0.4. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
BlackRock has transferred a significant amount of BTC to the crypto exchange Coinbase, sparking concerns about a sell-off. This comes as the Bitcoin price continues to struggle to break above $90,000 successfully. Bitcoin Price At Risk as BlackRock Transfers BTC Arkham data shows that Blackrock deposited 2,201 BTC ($192.13 million) into Coinbase, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of further decline amid increasing selling pressure. The move followed the outflow recorded by BlackRock’s BTC ETF on December 26, with Bitcoin funds as a group seeing a net outflow of $275.88 million. Related Reading: Bitcoin News: Here’s How Much Was Liquidated In The Crypto Market In 2025 These Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a seven-day outflow streak, which also prompted BlackRock to deposit 6,174.39 BTC last week, likely to offload these coins and redeem shares of its BTC fund. The Bitcoin price has struggled to break above $90,000 amid these outflows from the BTC funds. Notably, the Bitcoin price had broken above $90,000 on December 28 but quickly lost those gains yesterday as BlackRock moved the coins to Coinbase. Crypto pundit Martini claimed that BlackRock wasn’t the only one putting significant selling pressure on the flagship crypto. He alleged that Binance, Wintermute, Coinbase, and Fidelity also sold a significant amount of BTC, collectively dumping $3.5 billion yesterday. Crypto pundit Bull Theory claimed that there was a weekend manipulation as the Bitcoin price pumped $3,000 and broke $90,000, liquidating $103 million worth of shorts this Sunday. He then noted that on Monday morning, BTC dumped $2,700 and liquidated $40 million worth of longs, erasing its entire pump in the process. With the current price action, BTC is heading for a red yearly close, as it is currently down over 6% year-to-date (YTD). BTC Could Bottom Out Soon Against Other Major Assets In an X post, crypto analyst Kevin Capital stated that most of the data continues to become more favorable for the Bitcoin price, putting in a bottom against the equity markets and gold in the coming weeks. He added that the data also points to the flagship crypto outperforming these assets. The analyst stated that this was based on just factual data and not emotions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bear Market, And This Data Backs It Up The Bitcoin price had notably outperformed these major assets at the start of the year but has since fallen behind, following the October 10 crypto crash. Gold is up 66% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 17% since the start of the year. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also predicted that BTC could soon rally, noting that the long-term holders have stopped selling for the first time since July 2025. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,300, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A time-honored Wall Street pattern could bring relief to battered BTC bulls as the year end nears.
In the volatile theatre of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing signs of a potential high-time-frame reversal. After weeks of stress and price compression, each of the top assets is now stabilizing at key structural support levels. The multiple leading cryptocurrencies are flashing similar recovery setups at the same time. The current crypto landscape may be setting up one of the most powerful high-time-frame reversals across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. An investor and trader known as MacroCRG on X highlighted that yesterday, all three assets printed a bullish engulfing candle, a strong signal that buyers are stepping back in with intent. Market Leaders Hint At A Shift Before Smaller Assets Follow On the weekly chart, each asset is showing the early stages of an inside-week breakout paired with a false breakdown. MacroCRG pointed out that a similar structure on the ES (S&P 500 futures) chart from April, where the breakdown of inside-week structure led to a breakout that never looked back when the bull secured the weekly close. Related Reading: Institutions Exit Bitcoin In Large Tranches, Ethereum, Solana And XRP See Massive Buy-Ins For this setup to take hold, these prices need to close the week above the key highlighted highs on the chart. However, there’s still a long way to go before the weekly close will confirm the breakout, and the bulls need to follow through with conviction and remove any doubt. The founder of the ProMintClub investment community, ProMint, has spotted a high-conviction whale trader aggressively building long positions across the crypto market. Currently, the trader is leading the Lighter leaderboard with over $64 million in profit and loss, while maintaining an 83% long bias. His Lighter account has the highest profit and loss with over $8 million. These are insane numbers compared to everyone else on the leaderboard. Data shows that the trader has made five deposits into his Lighter account, which total around $6 million in capital. His positions are spread across BTC, ETH, SOL, AAVE, along with smaller plays such as PAXG and PUMP, consistently entering at strong timing points and riding momentum higher. Even though funding costs have flipped heavily negative, he is not backing down. Presently, this is the top-performing account on Lighter, and this is serious capital deployed with conviction. How Increased Partners Drive Sustained Volume Demand According to Chainflip Labs, November marked one of the strongest performance months in the protocol’s history, clearing over $583 million in swap volume, which is the second-best month ever for the network. Related Reading: You Won’t Believe How Much Bitcoin Companies Now Hold, What % Of Supply Do They Control? Demand remained sustained across BTC, ETH, and SOL routes, and more partners are routing flow through the network than ever before. The trend clearly shows that Chainflip will continue to scale. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has spent the past year accumulating Bitcoin and gold at a pace that puts it on par with several sovereign treasuries. For context, the firm purchased more gold than every central bank combined over the last quarter alone, pushing its total holdings to 116 tons of physical bullion. […]
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On-chain analytics firm Santiment has explained how Bitcoin could currently be undervalued based on its 4-year correlation to Gold and S&P 500. Bitcoin Has Underperformed Against Gold & S&P 500 Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed about BTC’s recent trend relative to Gold and S&P 500. Historically, the cryptocurrency has shown some degree of correlation to these assets, but the pattern has shifted lately. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Demand Growing For First Time Since Early October: CryptoQuant Head Any two given assets are said to be “correlated” when one of them reacts to movements in the other by showing volatility of its own. As the chart shared by Santiment shows, Bitcoin has diverged from the traditional assets during the last few months. From the graph, it’s visible that Bitcoin has overall gone down 15% since August 11th. In the same window, the S&P 500 and Gold are up 7% and 21%, respectively. Gold has been the clear winner, but the S&P 500 has also at least managed a profit. The same is clearly not true for the number one cryptocurrency, which has gone the opposite way. The different trajectories of the assets would imply that they are no longer correlated or only have a negative correlation. Based on the fact that Bitcoin has shown tight correlation to the two over the last four years, however, the analytics firm has said, “BTC is arguably being undervalued.” It now remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency’s price will eventually close the gap to the others. In some other news, BTC is trading between two key on-chain price levels right now, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post. The levels in question are part of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which maps out various Bitcoin price levels according to the percentage of the supply that will be in profit if BTC were to trade at them. Bitcoin broke above the 0.95 quantile during its rally to the new all-time high (ATH), meaning more than 95% of the supply entered into a state of unrealized gain. With the drawdown that the coin has faced since then, its price has slipped not just under this level, but also the 0.85 quantile, corresponding to supply profitability of 85%. Related Reading: XRP To $10? Analyst Reveals What Could Be The Spark This level, currently situated at $108,500, could act as a barrier preventing upward breaks. In the down direction, the 0.75 quantile is present as a cushion around $100,600. “These levels have historically acted as support and resistance, with a break of either likely to define the next directional trend,” explained Glassnode. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $105,000, up 2.5% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is not just lagging gold in 2025, but its returns have also slipped below those of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000. Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000. Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000. The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle. Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market. According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs. Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market. US Stock Market’s Record-Breaking Momentum The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance. Related Reading: Analyst Says Understanding This Bitcoin Structure Is Like Having A Superpower The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact. However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength. Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000. When Bitcoin Finally Catches Up The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sees Sharp Decline With Market Crash – Here Are The Numbers Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
On CNBC, Tom Lee said Fed cuts and fading skepticism could lift U.S. stocks into year-end and that crypto may rebound as open interest resets and technicals improve.
For the first time in 2025, the United States Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates while the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs, and according to The Kobeissi Letter, the time has come for an important shift in markets that could usher in the next crypto market bull run. As it stands, record stock valuations, resilient GDP growth, sticky inflation, and cracks are forming in the labor market, leaving the stage open for volatility in traditional markets that could spill over into the next explosive altcoin season. Fed Rate Cuts At Record Valuations Expectations are also high that the Fed will keep lowering rates at the next interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 and through the end of this year. According to a lengthy thread that was posted on the social media platform X, this could have long-term bullish effects on the crypto industry. Related Reading: Altcoin Market Completes Highest Monthly Close Ever: What This Means For Alt Season The Federal Reserve usually cuts rates in the face of economic weakness and depressed equity markets, but this time is different. As noted by The Kobeissi Letter, valuation metrics tracked by Bloomberg show US stocks are more expensive than ever, having surpassed even the 1929 pre-Depression peak and the dot-com bubble. Furthermore, the S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio hit 5.3x in late August, its record level. Despite these extremes, policymakers are expected to cut by at least 25 basis points this week based on weakness in the labor market. History shows that when rate cuts occurred with stocks within 2% of all-time highs, as shown in 2019 and 2024, the S&P 500 delivered strong gains over the following year. This unusual mix could once again amplify capital flows into high-growth assets, including cryptocurrencies, in the last quarter of 2025. A Perfect Time For Altcoins Cutting rates into hot inflation adds liquidity fuel just as investors chase risk assets. That backdrop has always caused powerful surges for Gold, Bitcoin, and other major cryptocurrencies, as the return of these assets thrives when fiat returns come under question. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Sets New 2025 High, What This Means For The Crypto Market As The Kobeissi Letter framed it, the time has come. The Fed’s decision to cut rates with stocks at record highs, amid a 3% GDP growth and hot inflation 110 bps above the Fed’s long-term target, could be the driver of the next altcoin season. Gold and Bitcoin have already been priced in this new era of liquidity, as both are now up by 450% and 105%, respectively, since 2023. The setup is even better for altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Chainlink, and most especially cryptocurrencies involved in the growing AI niche. There could be more immediate-term volatility, but long-term asset owners will benefit the most from the rate cut. However, if the Federal Reserve opts for a slower pace of cuts than markets are currently pricing in, the disappointment could ripple through both equities and cryptocurrencies and cause short-term declines this week. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Financial markets keep rallying, but a look beneath the surface paints a much riskier picture for the months ahead. Many investors now warn that Wall Street is ignoring growing cracks in the U.S. job market and real economy, a disconnect that has led to major trouble before. Why Wall Street is so out of step […]
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The company's bid to join the S&P 500 index was rejected, despite meeting eligibility criteria, the report said.
The Bitcoin price has soared to historic highs this year, but not everyone believes the rally will last. A new warning from a crypto analyst suggests that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a dramatic price crash, with the possibility of erasing nearly all of its gains and tumbling back to levels not seen in years. Why A 90% Bitcoin Price Crash Could Be Ahead In a recent interview on the David Lin Report, a financial news channel on YouTube, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone issued a stark warning for Bitcoin holders. After years of accurately calling key price levels, including the surge to $100,000, McGlone now predicts that BTC could wipe out more than 90% of its gains, potentially falling back to $10,000 in this market cycle. Related Reading: Pundit Calls Bitcoin Price Crash Below $93,000, Reveals Bear Targets From Here The Bloomberg strategist explained that Bitcoin’s climb to six figures on December 6 marked a major psychological threshold. According to him, that milestone was less a sign of long-term strength and more a signal that the market had overheated. He described the surge as a textbook example of “selling when there’s yelling,” meaning that investors often get caught up in the euphoria at the top. Since Bitcoin crossed $100,000 on December 6, McGlone noted that gold has appreciated roughly 30%, while BTC has added only about 8%. Stock market benchmarks such as the S&P 500 have also posted modest returns in the same period, leaving digital assets struggling to show dominance. McGlone highlighted the growing connection between Bitcoin and broader equity markets, noting that its 48-month correlation with the S&P 500 now stands at 0.6. He suggested that this pattern underscores Bitcoin’s transformation into a risk-on asset, moving in tandem with stock market performance rather than acting as an independent store of value. Adding to his bearish stance, the Bloomberg strategist pointed out that volatility signals are shifting. In August, the Volatility Index (VIX) hit its lowest level of the year at around 14.2, while Bitcoin simultaneously reached new highs. By the end of the same month, volatility spiked again, suggesting that market sentiment may be changing. For McGlone, these signals indicate that investors should prepare for a potential correction phase, with gold likely to continue outperforming BTC and other speculative assets. Analyst Says Bitcoin To $1 Million Is Unlikely During the interview, Lin questioned whether Bitcoin could ever climb to $1 million, pointing to the same logic that took the asset naturally from $10,000 to $100,000. McGlone dismissed the idea, stressing that today’s market environment is fundamentally different and does not support such an outcome. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Price Bottom In? Here’s What Social Sentiment Says The Bloomberg strategist explained that when Bitcoin was trading near $10,000, market sentiment was profoundly negative, which created the ideal conditions for a long-term rally. By contrast, at a price above $100,000, the current market is crowded with long positions, making it harder for BTC to sustain upward momentum. In his view, the sheer weight of speculative exposure has left Bitcoin vulnerable to a potential retracement rather than setting the stage for exponential growth. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics platform Santiment has weighed in on whether the Bitcoin price has reached its bottom, following its drop to the $108,000 range. The platform alluded to the current social sentiment, suggesting that a further drawdown may be looming. Bitcoin Price Bottom Not Yet In Amid Spike In Social Dominance In a research report, Santiment indicated that the Bitcoin price bottom may not yet be in, considering the surge in the social dominance of ‘buy the dip’ mentions. The platform explained that a true bottom is often marked not by price but by a shift in social narrative from ‘buy the dip’ optimism to widespread fear. This creates a strong bearish case that discourages buying. Related Reading: Analyst Warns Investors To Avoid Bitcoin At All Cost As Price Is Going Below $60,000 Santiment suggested that the Bitcoin price typically rebounds when the sentiment is bearish and when investors least expect an uptrend. However, for now, market participants are still getting “antsy and trying to find some entry spots now that prices have cooled down a bit, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan explained. The analyst opined that the cooldown in the Bitcoin price so far is not a huge one, while noting that BTC has detached from the S&P 500. Quinlivan predicted that BTC and other crypto assets could play catch-up to the stock market when the crowd stops getting too optimistic about buying the dip. He added that the true ‘buy the dip’ opportunities happen when the crowd stops believing there is an opportunity. In the research report, Santiment noted that the current ‘buy the dip’ chatter needs to be suddenly replaced by discussion of the narrative that supports the bearish case. In line with this, the platform advised market participants to pay close attention to the dominant social narrative. According to the report, when the conversation shifts from hopeful buying to widespread fear, it can be a stronger bottom signal than the Bitcoin price alone. Another Metric To Keep An Eye On The Santiment report indicated that BTC whale transfers are another key metric to watch for, as they can help determine if the Bitcoin price has reached its bottom. These whales, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, have not been selling off in any significant way despite the market dip. Related Reading: MicroStrategy Successfully Claims 3% Of Bitcoin Supply, Here’s How Much It’s Now Worth According to Maksim, who joined Santiment analyst Brian on the podcast, whenever these wallets do decrease their holdings, it can lead to “postponed price suppression weeks thereafter.” Therefore, Santiment advised market participants to monitor the holdings of large Bitcoin wallets. A lack of selling from whales could indicate underlying strength, while a significant drop can be a warning of future price weakness. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $107,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
After a record Q2 with $10 billion net income and a growing bitcoin balance, Strategy meets all index criteria as the S&P committee prepares its September announcement.
Bitcoin is entering a phase of unusual calm, with price volatility dropping to some of its lowest levels in years. For many analysts, this reduced volatility is not a sign of weakness; rather, it’s a sign of strength. If this trend continues, the groundwork could be laid for a sustainable bull run fueled by Bitcoin’s growing reputation as a long-term store of value. Can Reduced Volatility Redefine Bitcoin’s Market Identity? Bitcoin is entering a new phase in its market evolution. As highlighted by CryptoRank_io on X, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has seen its volatility steadily decline in tandem with the growth of its market capitalization. This trend suggests that Bitcoin is maturing from a speculative, high-risk asset into a more stable, long-term investment vehicle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakdown in Motion – Bounce Trap Or Deeper Bear Market Warning? Such a shift toward stability could significantly impact how Bitcoin evolves in the years ahead, rather than the explosive, parabolic rallies and brutal corrections that have historically defined BTC’s price action. The lower volatility suggests that the next phase of growth may come in the form of steadier and more sustainable increases with shallower pullbacks. This is a crucial development for institutional investors and major funds. Traditional finance prefers assets with predictable risk profiles, and Bitcoin’s reduced volatility makes it far more attractive for large-scale allocation. BTC’s market structure signals bearish sentiment despite rising open interest. According to Luca, the Bitcoin market is showing signs of tension. Since BTC topped out in mid-August, a clear divergence has emerged between Open Interest and Funding Rates. While Open Interest has been steadily climbing, indicating that more positions are being opened, Funding Rates have been trending lower. This setup suggests that bears are doubling down and loading up on short positions in anticipation of further downside. Traders seem to be betting that the latest move lower is just the beginning, especially as BTC heads into September, which is a historically weak month for Bitcoin. Luca noted that this aligns with his previous observations, suggesting that the market may continue to favor bearish positioning in the near term. Sideways Movement Highlights Bitcoin Stability Daan Crypto Trades also revealed that Bitcoin has largely been consolidating over the past few months, showing sideways price action compared to the Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500). BTC is only up around 10% vs the 2021 all-time high in relation to stocks in 2021. Related Reading: Bitcoin 10% Off Its Highs—But Hidden On-Chain Data Tells a Different Story The trend highlights that the cryptocurrency has yet to replicate the dramatic gains seen in previous cycles. Daan points out that the S&P 500’s performance during this period has been significantly boosted by the surge in AI-related developments, which accelerated equity market gains. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has cemented itself as a trillion-dollar asset class, and institutional adoption is gathering momentum, and pressure on the world’s largest companies is mounting. What started as a fringe bet is rapidly turning into a strategic necessity. In a recent Swan Bitcoin presentation, Adam Livingston laid out a simple yet powerful case for why passive index mechanics will eventually force S&P 500 companies to incorporate BTC exposure the moment MicroStrategy qualifies for inclusion. What An S&P 500 Bitcoin Allocation Could Look Like According to the update on X, Livingston explains that once Strategy qualifies for inclusion in the S&P 500, the index’s rules will take effect. This is not about taste or ideology. Rather, it’s about floats, weights, and formulas. Related Reading: Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Near 20% Of Supply—Wall Street’s New Playground? When the index updates, trillions of dollars in benchmark trackers will follow. This means that BTC exposure will be piped directly into every 401(k), pension fund, and institutional portfolio that mirrors the S&P 500. The inclusion checklist is that Strategy now meets the exact criteria required for S&P 500 entry. These include passive funds like SPY and VOO that collectively move trillions and are compelled to buy new entrants, without questioning why a small initial index weight can trigger billions in inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs amplify the same flows with the daily rebalancing. Also, a reflexive loop is formed when BTC rises, Strategy’s weight rises, and more passive capital resumes buying. Real-world proof from prior inclusions shows how fast the index effect drives flows, and miners, exchanges, and treasury-heavy firms multiply BTC. Furthermore, he emphasizes that this is inevitable and not an opinion. Once the Strategy clears the inclusion hurdle, passive capital must flow. Presently, the index system has no ideological filter, and it simply executes rules. For finance professionals, CIOs, advisors, and analysts who live and die by benchmark risk, it’s the plumbing that matters. For Bitcoiners, it’s a clean, shareable explanation for skeptics who dismiss adoption as narrative hype. Once the index rules are triggered, the passive system cannot ignore BTC. By default, BTC exposure will be distributed across global portfolios. Parataxis Holdings Joins The BTC Treasury Trend In a strategic move, Parataxis Holdings has just joined the growing list of major institutions allocating corporate treasury funds to Bitcoin. Parataxis Holdings announced plans to purchase up to $640 million worth of BTC. According to market analyst Cryptoclub520, this signals an increase in institutional confidence in the digital asset as both a store of value and a hedge against market uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Macro Mirror: Global Liquidity Trends Hint At Bullish Continuation Additionally, the firm plans to deploy the funds gradually and adjust purchases based on market conditions to reduce volatility. However, Cryptoclub520 notes that BTC is becoming a serious reserve asset for investors. Institutional adoption continues to heat up, as more asset managers and corporate treasuries embrace BTC, marking a bullish signal for long-term holders. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto may be nearing its S&P 500 moment, with indices set to provide legitimacy, structure, and mainstream adoption for digital assets.
As global markets hit the skids this week and forced liquidations and margin calls wipe out more levered longs, prominent traders are repositioning accordingly. New tariffs announced by the Trump administration and a sharply weaker U.S. jobs report caused anxiety in global markets; the S&P 500 lost 1.6% in a day, and Bitcoin, true to […]
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The company's stock performance has been boosted by progress on the GENIUS Act, which could increase revenue for Coinbase through stablecoin-related income.
STRK has risen more than bitcoin and the S&P 500 index while offering an attractive yield and differentiated market exposure.
The exchange is the first and only crypto company to join the S&P 500 index.
Market commentator Miya has outlined an interesting theory on why the Bitcoin price is poised to hit $110,000 by the end of the year. The expert alluded to current macro conditions and how it is bound to favor the flagship crypto at the end of the day. Why The Bitcoin Price Will Hit $110,000 In an analysis titled ‘The Big Short against Retail,’ Miya predicted the Bitcoin price to reach $110,000 by the end of the year. At the same time, the expert expects the S&P 500 to drop to 4,700. She opined that the stock market is heading towards a bad summer, which is why she expects a lower low on the SPX but a “pristine” Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Raging Bull Indicator Turns Back On, But This Level Holds The Key Basically, Miya expects the Bitcoin price to benefit from any potential downtrend in the stock market, with investors viewing it as a flight to safety. She remarked that the market is heading towards a terrible macro situation, which could cause stocks to crash. These predictions came as the expert commented on the nine consecutive green days that stocks have enjoyed and why she believes it won’t last long. The market commentator noted that Donald Trump has made three main promises to the market: lower rates, tariffs, and taxes. These promises are expected to be kept, and she claims that the market is pricing them in as a sure thing. Traders are currently betting on a rate cut in June, while the US and China are set to meet to agree on a lower tariff. Lower taxes could come following a successful tariff policy. Thanks to this, the stock market has been on a nine-day-long uptrend, while retail traders have made profits by buying the dip. However, Miya has warned that the market isn’t as strong as it looks and could soon blow up, with the Bitcoin price benefiting when this projected crash happens. Why The Stock Market Is Bound To Crash The expert noted that this false idea of up-only gives retail investors the illusion of complacency, as they do right now with their $57 billion bid on top of retail accumulated shares. However, she remarked that eventually, this will unfold with the “containership recession trade” hitting the US in five days. BTC is expected to be a hedge against this macro situation, which would lead to a Bitcoin price surge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Falters: Why Has The 5th Wave Been Elusive Below $100,000? Miya explained that all the ‘Magnificent 7’ earnings in the last season have been massively skewed and were “useless information,” meaning they cannot be relied on to show a strong market. She added that TMT firms that manufacture physical hardware usually manufacture in waves, so the actual impacts will show up in their H2 capex over Q1 results, meaning the impact of tariffs hasn’t exactly started kicking in. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $96,500, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Ethereum’s price action may have struggled to gain traction in recent weeks, but an interesting long-term macro indicator is showing signs of early recovery beneath the surface. Particularly, a macro trend oscillator created by a crypto analyst known as Decode on social media platform X has begun to exhibit signs of a turnaround after an unusually prolonged stretch of bearish run. If confirmed, this would mark the beginning of a new phase of strength for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Shallow Red Bars Begin Turning On Ethereum’s Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The oscillator’s monthly chart, overlaid with Ethereum’s price data on the monthly candlestick timeframe, clearly shows how deep and sustained the recent bearish momentum has been. The red histogram bars reflecting macro weakness persisted well beyond typical durations, highlighting the broader economic drag that has weighed on the crypto market. Related Reading: Ethereum CrossX Indicators Flashes Buy As Insitution Accumulates, Analyst Says Brace For $4,000 Interestingly, January of this year briefly hinted at a return to bullish territory, but the green print turned out to be a false start and quickly faded as the cryptocurrency kicked off another downturn. However, the magnitude of recent red bars is notably shallower compared to downturns in 2023 and 2024. This subtle shift is more apparent on the lower timeframes, particularly the 3-day chart, which shows a clean rejection from the negative territory and the formation of a small green bar before the current pullback. The analyst, Decode, interprets this as a possible early-stage turnaround. Once the oscillator turns green in a sustained fashion, a rapid upward move in Ethereum and broader crypto prices is likely to follow, following similar transitions in the past. Green Phase Will Dominate Soon Looking beyond crypto, Decode’s oscillator also tracks the S&P 500 and broader macro trends, where the same pattern holds: green phases are not only more prolonged but also steeper and more robust. This asymmetric distribution of momentum across time reflects the true bias of assets toward expansion over contraction. Decode noted that this is not merely an indicator with arbitrary thresholds but a fully integrated macroeconomic index built from 17 metrics. These include equities, bonds, commodities, currency flows, central bank liquidity (M2), and even sentiment data. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Eyes $2,700 As Wyckoff Accumulation Nears Completion Translating this into Ethereum, this gradual shift toward the green zone is seen as a signal of incoming price strength. Although Ethereum has yet to fully recover from its recent correction to $1,400, the subtle but consistent improvement in Decode’s macro trend oscillator hints that the cryptocurrency may be entering into a fresh uptrend. Right now, the focus is on green bars printing consistently again, especially across multiple timeframes. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,830. The last 24 hours have been marked by a brief break below $1,800 before bouncing at $1,785. This move caused liquidations of approximately $35.92 million in ETH positions, with long positions accounting for $28.38 million of that amount. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Historic gains offer short-term relief, but market patterns signal caution ahead.
Since Bitcoin failed to hold above the $100,000 psychological barrier earlier this year, its bullish momentum has gradually unraveled. The pullback has deepened over the past two months, with Bitcoin trading between $75,000 and $79,000 in April. The bullish prospect is becoming very weak, and the crypto sector is searching for technical clarity amidst a buildup of pressure across traditional markets, especially with equities. Given the situation, crypto analyst Tony Severino noted that the current setup offers one major move that could invalidate an extended bearish momentum. Tony “The Bull” Identifies Important LMACD Inflection Point To Reject Bearish Hypothesis According to Tony “The Bull” Severino, the most important chart development is the incoming bearish crossover on Bitcoin’s 1-month LMACD indicator. The LMACD, which tracks market momentum on a logarithmic scale, currently shows the blue line drifting toward a crossover beneath the orange signal line. Related Reading: Crypto CEO Reveals Why The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over With Crash Below $80,000 This kind of intending crossover is known to be an important bearish confirmation, and its appearance has coincided with growing weakness across broader markets, including traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Although the crossover has not yet been confirmed by a monthly close, its presence at the open of April is enough to stir concern. Severino explained that unless a significant rally occurs before the end of the month, the blue line will cross below the orange line, and momentum will officially turn bearish. If the month closes with the crossover intact, it will mark the first confirmed bearish momentum shift on the LMACD since the bullish reversal in July 2023. Bitcoin Bulls Still Have A Window To Flip The Outlook Before April Ends According to Tony Severino, this crossover is not the sole reason for leaning bearish on Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory, but it stands out as the most precise technical marker that could trigger a rethink. The crossover isn’t isolated to the Bitcoin price chart. Severino highlighted that the same bearish crossover was already confirmed last month in major indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, the crossover has already shown up in the BTCUSD versus GOLD chart, further supporting the idea that Bitcoin is no longer moving in isolation but reacting to widespread macro pressures. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price 1-Month Stochastic: Expert Warns Investors To Stop Comparing BTC To 2017 Moves Despite the bearish tilt, the situation is not yet final. The current crossover is provisional, meaning there’s still time for bulls to reverse the signal. A powerful upward move this month could cause the blue LMACD line to diverge higher, reestablish upward momentum and invalidate the bearish setup before it solidifies. The analyst also noted this possibility of a rebound considering the current oversold levels. This is because oversold technical conditions generally creates the kind of environment where a dramatic reversal is possible. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,260, down by 2.23% and 8.93% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
A crypto market technician is debating whether Bitcoin has reached its peak this bull cycle, as technical indicators suggest a potential loss of momentum. The analysis report highlights technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which failed to reach past extremes, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Bitcoin Indicators Fall Short Of Historical Peaks Bitcoin has historically exhibited strong indicator readings during major cycle tops, reflecting extreme market engagement and enthusiasm. However, in this bull cycle, the pioneer cryptocurrency’s RSI reading has failed to reach historical peaks despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish, Why Bulls Have Only 20 Days Tony Severino, a crypto market technician on X (formerly Twitter), has Bitcoin Price Risks Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish, Why Bulls Have Only 20 Days a detailed analysis of Bitcoin, challenging the assumption that the cryptocurrency must reach the same overbought RSI levels as in previous cycles to confirm its market peak. The key argument here is that lower highs on oscillators like the RSI, combined with higher highs in Bitcoin’s price, can be a bearish signal, suggesting waning strength in the market. Severino shared an example comparing Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to past cycles. In the previous bull market, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI reached above 90, but its current cycle has not. The analyst posed a question about whether this inability to reach past extremes means that Bitcoin hasn’t reached a market top or simply lacked the same momentum to push its RSI to the highest level. The analyst has warned that believing that Bitcoin must reach past extremes on indicators before hitting a price peak is a dangerous way of thinking. Historical patterns do not always repeat in the same way, and relying too much on past indicator peaks could cause traders to miss warning signs of a top or underestimate the possibility of a bear market. Severino also pointed to historical data from the S&P 500 in the 1950s and 1960s, where similar RSI failure preceded a long market meltdown. During these times, cyclical peaks hit RSI readings of 77 or higher, but in 1969, the RSI failed to reach those highs, signaling underlying weakness. This market downturn ultimately led to the first lower low in over 20 years. While this historical behavior of the S&P 500 does not mean that Bitcoin is destined for a lower high, it does suggest that the cryptocurrency does not need to reach extreme RSI levels to confirm a cycle top and a subsequent bear market. Analyst Says BTC Has Hit Its Market Top In his analysis Severino confirmed that Bitcoin has already hit its market top for this bull cycle. Following his detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s RSI levels, a community member asked if Severino believes that Bitcoin reached a market top when its price surged above $109,000. Related Reading: This Analyst Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash From $91,000, Why It’s Far From Over The analyst responded positively, stating that current market data indicates that the cryptocurrency hit its highest price point for this bull cycle after Donald Trump’s US Inauguration Day. At the time, Bitcoin soared past $109,000, setting a new ATH and surpassing previous records. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Over the past three months, weekends have underperformed weekdays, due to global uncertainty.