Toncoin is at a critical juncture as it tests the $1 range, a key level that has anchored its trading for weeks. How it reacts here could determine whether the range holds or breaks, setting the stage for either a bullish flip or an accelerated drop. With strong fundamentals in play but the chart still in control, traders are watching closely for the decisive signal. Range Flip Or Breakdown: What BTC Pair Tells Us About Toncoin Charting the TON/BTC and TON/USDT daily pairs, analyst Umair Crypto points out that Toncoin is at a critical juncture. On the BTC pair, the RSI has broken above its trendline, signaling early bullish momentum. However, the 200 SMA on this pair remains the key level to watch, as it will determine whether the $1 support on the USDT pair holds or if the range flips higher. Related Reading: Toncoin, Quant Seeing Whale Activity Explosion, Big Move Ahead? The BTC pair has been consolidating within a range for 166 days, and the recent RSI trendline breakout above 50 hints that bullish pressure is building. Meanwhile, on the USDT pair, price is attempting to recover the 50 SMA, showing early signs of strength, though confirmation is still needed. From here, two scenarios are possible. If the BTC pair closes convincingly above the 200 SMA, it would likely trigger a range flip on Toncoin’s USDT pair to the upside. Conversely, if the BTC pair gets rejected at the 200 SMA, the range may break down, putting Toncoin at risk of forming a lower low below $1. Such a breakdown would shift the market structure into bearish territory and could accelerate selling pressure, making $1 a crucial level to watch. $1 Support: More Than Just A Psychological Level The analyst stressed that the $1 level is far more than a psychological benchmark; it is a critical structural support that anchors the entire TON/USDT range. If this level fails, the decline could accelerate sharply, making it a key inflection point for traders and investors alike. Holding above $1 is essential to maintain the current range and prevent a potential breakdown that could trigger further selling pressure. Even with strong fundamental catalysts, the market has remained largely unresponsive. AlphaTON Capital Corp recently launched a $100 million treasury strategy, while TON Wallet officially expanded into the US market, both moves signaling growing institutional adoption. Related Reading: Lucky Train Launches TON-Based Web3 Project With Staking-Like Participation Model At this critical juncture, the BTC pair’s 200 SMA is shaping up as the ultimate deciding factor. A decisive close above this level could reinforce $1 as strong support and pave the way for a bullish range flip. Conversely, rejection at the 200 SMA could tip the market into bearish territory, signaling that structural weakness now overrides fundamental optimism. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
XRP is showing strong signs of a larger breakout on the horizon, but the path higher may not be smooth. Current price action suggests a potential shakeout, clearing out weak hands before momentum builds. With key levels being tested and structure tightening, the next move could set the stage for a much bigger rally. Trendline Breakdown Flips Key Support Into Resistance In a quick XRP update, CasiTrades noted that the price is now breaking below the consolidation trendline that had been holding for weeks, with that level beginning to flip into resistance. That shift aligns with what was discussed in Friday’s livestream. From a structural standpoint, it strengthens the case that XRP may be entering its final leg down toward the $0.87 support zone. Related Reading: XRP Nears Breakout: Analyst Maps Path Back To All-Time High On the lower timeframe, particularly the 15-minute chart, the current upward move is being tracked as a subwave 2 bounce. A well-defined RSI trendline is guiding this short-term recovery, and as long as it holds, the bounce can continue to play out. However, a break below that RSI structure would likely mark the start of wave 3. In the near term, key levels remain in focus. The $1.40–$1.41 region is being watched as a potential B wave area, followed by a possible extension toward $1.51–$1.55 for the C wave completion. These zones could act as temporary resistance points before the next decisive move unfolds. Despite the short-term fluctuations, the broader outlook remains unchanged. The primary expectation is still a move toward $0.87 unless XRP can reclaim and hold above the $1.65 resistance level. Staying disciplined and sticking to this plan helps remove emotion and keeps the focus on structure rather than noise. History Repeats: XRP Mirrors Past Cycle Structure According to an XRP update by Archie, the current cycle is unfolding in a manner that bears a striking resemblance to past price action. After forming a bottom and establishing a higher low, the market structure shifted, leading to the start of a new uptrend. Both cycles follow the same pattern: an initial push, a retest, and then another strong move higher. Related Reading: Breaking Down The $100 XRP Prophecy: Is There A Timeline? If history repeats, the key trendline could be taken out as early as this weekend. Adding to the bullish case, a divergence on the daily chart is reinforcing the idea that strength is returning beneath the surface. Expectations this time appear even more ambitious. Rather than stalling at previous all-time highs, sentiment points toward a much larger move, with targets extending into double-digit territory. Confidence is growing, and the narrative is clear; the market believes XRP’s next phase could be far more explosive. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com