Bitcoin's current bear market could worsen over the next year if the flagship digital asset fails to address concerns about quantum computing. In a Feb. 20 report, Charles Edwards, Capriole founder, claimed that Bitcoin’s market value should already be discounted for quantum risk and warned that the discount could deepen quickly if the network does […]
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While much of the market’s attention remains fixed on the Bitcoin (BTC) short-term price outlook for the remainder of the year, some early industry voices are raising a far longer-term concern — one that could introduce as much as $274 billion in potential selling pressure over the next decade. Quantum Risk Debate Grows In a recent post on social media, market expert Crypto Rover pointed to what he described as a growing conversation among early Bitcoin analysts and long-time participants in the space. According to the analysis, the warning is not coming from retail traders reacting to daily price swings. Instead, it is being discussed by so-called “OG” holders — investors who have been involved with Bitcoin since its earliest years. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days The issue at the center of the debate is not macroeconomics or regulatory shifts, but quantum computing. A segment of early adopters believes that advances in quantum technology may no longer be a distant or purely theoretical risk. Within the next five to ten years, they argue, quantum systems could become powerful enough to challenge the cryptographic foundations that secure the Bitcoin network. If quantum machines were able to break or significantly weaken that encryption, older wallets — particularly those using early-generation security standards — could become vulnerable. The concern is not that Bitcoin’s network is currently weak, but that a sufficiently advanced quantum breakthrough could expose dormant coins whose private keys were once thought secure. This is where the potential supply shock comes into focus. Potential Return Of Early-Era Bitcoin An estimated 4 million BTC from Bitcoin’s early years, particularly before 2011, are considered inactive or lost. Markets generally treat those coins as permanently out of circulation, effectively reducing Bitcoin’s usable supply. However, Rover asserts that if quantum computing were ever able to unlock even a portion of those wallets, that supply could theoretically return to the market. To understand the magnitude of such a shift, Rover points to recent history. Since 2020, institutions and corporations have collectively accumulated roughly 3 million BTC, which played a key role in driving BTC from $10,000 to peak levels above $120,000. Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 The expert warns that if 4 million Bitcoin were suddenly viewed as potentially liquid supply, it would represent a long-term overhang far exceeding the scale of recent institutional accumulation. However, Rover highlighted that quantum computing does not represent an imminent danger to Bitcoin’s security. The technology is continuously evolving, and there is no confirmed ability to break modern cryptographic standards at scale. BTC was trading at roughly $67,800 at the time of writing, representing a 2.6% decrease over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
CEO Mike Novogratz noted this sale was part of a profit-taking trend among early bitcoin adopters, indicating weakening conviction in the "HODLing" philosophy.
Earlier in January, the Ethereum Foundation formally elevated post-quantum security to a strategic priority, creating a dedicated Post-Quantum team.
Wall Street broker Benchmark argued the crypto network has ample time to evolve as quantum risks shift from theory to risk management.
Christopher Wood, Jefferies' global head of equity strategy, swapped a 10% bitcoin allocation with gold on concern quantum computing could weaken bitcoin’s security case.
The Series A round was led by Castle Island Ventures with participation from Coinbase Ventures.
Also: Zcash token falls after developer quits, Smart Cashtags and BTC quantum computing defense
Buterin emphasizes the importance of quantum resistance and scalability, aiming for the Ethereum blockchain to handle thousands of transactions per second.
Post-quantum cryptography specialist BTQ Technologies has introduced ‘Bitcoin Quantum,’ a permissionless fork and testnet of the largest cryptocurrency.
U.S. market structure legislation is poised to be the dominant force for digital assets, while near-term concerns about quantum computing are overdone.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is ending the year with major technological developments after a year that saw it gain significant adoption and milestones. On Dec. 24, Denis Angell, a lead software engineer at XRPL Labs, announced the integration of “post-quantum” cryptography and native smart contracts into AlphaNet, the project’s public developer network. The ‘Q-Day' inevitability […]
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Even if quantum machines capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography are decades away, the work required to update software, infrastructure and user behavior would be measured in years, not months.
Quantum computing is not currently an existential threat to Bitcoin, but as capital becomes more institutional and long-term, even distant risks require clearer answers.
We can quibble over the exact timeline, but the quantum future is an approaching certainty, argues Arpa Network CEO Felix Xu. The time to act is now, while we still can.
In a wide-ranging interview, Huang claims AI growth is gradual, powerful and already changing global power dynamics.
Jan van Eck questioned whether Bitcoin offers enough encryption and privacy, saying some longtime holders are examining Zcash as the market reassesses long-term assumptions.
Quantum computing is no longer just science fiction or the stuff of cypherpunk paranoia; it’s officially a front-page threat for the world’s first stateless money. If you ever thought Satoshi’s creation was immune to existential risk, think again. The latest round of Bitcoiners and cryptographers in the Human Rights Foundation (HRF)’s latest report would like […]
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Also: BOB Unveils BTC Vault Liquidation Engine, Ledger’s Major Overhaul and Google Weighs In on Quantum Computing.
Mysten Labs’ chief cryptographer warns that artificial intelligence, not quantum computing, poses the real near-term threat to blockchain security.
For decades, physicists have promised that quantum computing would one day outrun classical machines. That day may have arrived. On Oct. 22, Google’s Willow quantum processor completed a task that supercomputers would need 150 years to finish by compressing centuries of calculation into two hours. Industry experts say the result, verified by Nature, isn’t only […]
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Google said it achieved a "quantum advantage," with its Willow chip completing a calculation that would take classical supercomputers thousands of times longer.
Also: Monad’s Tech, Quantum Computing and Bitcoin and Securitize’s MCP Server.
Nic Carter says quantum computing is bitcoin’s biggest risk, explaining how spending exposes public keys and urging developers to plan post-quantum defenses.
If a quantum computer ever broke a blockchain, the entire crypto industry might as well close down shop, argues Kostas Chalkias, chief cryptographer at Mysten Labs.
Other experts in the crypto community, such as Adam Back and Peter Todd, are less convinced of the near-term threat.
Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko is urging the Bitcoin community to begin transitioning to quantum-resistant security measures, warning that advances in quantum computing may arrive faster than expected. Speaking during a Sept. 18 session at the All-In Summit, said the accelerating pace of technological breakthroughs means Bitcoin should not wait until the threat is imminent. According […]
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Microsoft has recently rolled out a chip called Majorana 1 that its engineers say could point the way to building quantum computers with the scale people once only imagined. Google and IBM have also posted progress updates in recent months, and some in crypto called the news alarming. Related Reading: Ethereum Faith Fading? Samson Mow Says Holders Will Shift To Bitcoin But Graham Cooke, a Google veteran-turned blockchain CEO, pushed back on the panic, saying “Your wallet’s math is stronger than the fabric of spacetime itself.” Majorana 1 And The Million Qubit Claim Microsoft says Majorana 1 uses a new class of material — a “topoconductor” — and an architecture meant to make qubits more stable and easier to scale toward a million-qubit device. The company frames the chip as a step toward practical, fault-tolerant quantum machines that could handle very large problems. That kind of scale is what makes some people worry about cryptography, because certain quantum algorithms work very differently from the classical math that protects keys today. Microsoft built a 1-million-qubit quantum computer. Bitcoin holders are panicking—this could crack crypto encryption. But your seed phrase has 340,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations. Here’s why quantum still can’t touch it: pic.twitter.com/kiI5oIXej1 — GC Cooke (@GCcookeHQ) August 11, 2025 Google’s Willow And IBM Roadmaps Based on reports, Google’s Willow chip and IBM’s public roadmap have added fuel to the conversation. Google showed a chip that it says solved a benchmark task in under five minutes that, by their measure, would take a classical supercomputer roughly 10 septillion years. IBM has published plans for staged systems — Starling and later Blue Jay — to push toward many logical qubits and extensive error correction over the next several years. Those announcements mean companies are getting closer to solving long-standing engineering problems, but they do not equal an instant ability to undo modern cryptography. Why Bitcoin Isn’t Facing A Panic Right Now Cryptography experts point out that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve keys needs not just more physical qubits but stable, error-corrected logical qubits and huge run-times. Estimates vary widely, but respected analysis has shown that breaking a 256-bit elliptic curve in a practical time window would require millions or at least many hundreds of thousands of physical qubits once error correction is counted. In short: the path from a lab milestone to a machine that can target Bitcoin addresses at scale still runs through a lot of hard engineering. A 24-word seed phrase? That’s 340 septillion trillion MORE combinations than a 12-word phrase. We’re approaching 10^77 possibilities – nearly as many as atoms in the observable universe (10^80): — GC Cooke (@GCcookeHQ) August 11, 2025 Related Reading: Chainlink Tipped To Outshine XRP In Global Banking Links: Analyst Seed Phrases And Dizzying Numbers Based on reports and public comments from practitioners, wallet math is not the whole story but it matters. Cooke has stressed how large a 24-word seed phrase keyspace is compared with a 12-word phrase, and he used big-picture comparisons — like saying the universe’s age of 14 billion years and “a trillion trillion” restarts — to show how vast those numbers are. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The new framework is aimed at simplifying the protocol’s design while preparing it for the security risks posed by future quantum computers.
Also: Risc Zero’s ‘Boundless’ Incentivized Testnet, A New Bitcoin Proposal, and The First DePIN Powered Credit Card.