Bitcoin has entered a period of relative calm, with its price oscillating between $81,000 and $89,000 over the past several sessions. This newfound stability has reassured many traders, as the odds of a sharp decline below $80,000 have diminished significantly. Selling pressure is starting to ease, buyers are gradually stepping in, and the market appears to be in an accumulation phase, which is often a precursor to another rally. Even with selling pressure easing, there’s still a risk of breakdown below $80,000 at any moment. However, dormer BitMEX CEO and renowned crypto investor Arthur Hayes recently shared a bold projection that Bitcoin will reach $110,000 before retesting the $76,500 price level. Arthur Hayes Predicts $110,000 Will Come Before Any Pullback to $76,500 As it stands, Bitcoin is closer to $75,000 than it is to $110,000, but popular crypto commentator Arthur Hayes believes the leading cryptocurrency will reach the latter before the former. A climb to $110,000 will translate to a new all-time high for Bitcoin, as its current peak is $108,786, set in January. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Arthur Hayes Says Be Patient After Bitcoin’s 36% Crash, Reveals Possible Bottom At present, Bitcoin is trading about 20.3% below that high, and concerns about a deeper correction are valid. The possibility of a pullback to $76,500 is still a genuine concern, especially since that price sits just under this month’s local low, and it can be quickly retested before another bounce upwards. Hayes’ comments on social media platform X offered both a price target and a macroeconomic rationale. Hayes stated, “I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k,” clarifying that the momentum of the market and shifts in monetary policies are more likely to push the Bitcoin price up rather than another correction towards $76,500. He went further to suggest that once Bitcoin crosses $110,000, it may not look back until it starts approaching $250,000. This price target resonates with outlooks from other crypto analysts. Incoming Shifts In Monetary Policies Central to Hayes’ reasoning is the Federal Reserve’s changing stance on liquidity. He pointed out that the Fed is transitioning from quantitative tightening (QT) to a new phase of quantitative easing (QE), particularly in the Treasury markets. Although the Fed has been engaged in quantitative tightening (QT) since June 2022, there are now discussions about pausing or slowing down the balance sheet runoff. According to Reuters, some analysts predict a shift towards a more QE-like approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: LTF Head And Shoulders Pattern Predicts Crash – Here’s The Target This shift could potentially inject more liquidity into the financial system, pushing assets like Bitcoin to higher price levels. Hayes also dismissed concerns about inflation, stating that the Fed Chairman appears to view it as “transitory inflation.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $86,600, having traded at an intraday high of $88,713 in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
The cryptocurrency market is facing a seemingly never-ending decline, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) leading the losses among large-cap digital assets. This correction comes as the broader market sentiment turns bearish and cautious while Bitcoin (BTC) experiences persistent volatility and moves into bear market territory. Ethereum And Dogecoin Market Cap Takes A Hit Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has recorded a significant drop in its market cap in the last 24 hours. While the price of Ethereum has declined to $1,910, its market cap has also gone down approximately 7.8%. Related Reading: Here’s Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, And The Entire Crypto Market Is Crashing Today A combination of factors has contributed to this unfortunate drop in valuation, including investor caution ahead of key economic reports and ongoing bearish sentiments. While Ethereum’s trading volume seems to be the only metric in the green, jumping by 80%, liquidations persist as traders exit their positions ahead of further losses. On a similar note, Dogecoin, the number one meme coin, has experienced steep losses in both its value and market cap. Despite its 30.5% increase in trading volume, Dogecoin’s market cap has fallen by 6.6%. This decline follows a recent surge in meme-based cryptocurrencies earlier this year, which appears to be losing momentum. As of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at $0.16, reflecting a deep correction of 16.8% in the last seven days and a massive 37% crash over the past month. Notably, the decline in Dogecoin and Ethereum’s market cap is the highest in the last 24 hours, with coins in the top 10 experiencing a less than 2% drop. This massive drop in both cryptocurrencies comes as analysts confirm that Bitcoin has entered bear market territory. Bitcoin And Altcoins Enter Bear Market According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, Bitcoin may have entered bear market territory as the pioneer cryptocurrency faces decreasing momentum. Severino’s analysis applies the Elliott Wave Theory, which claims that the bear market for altcoins started in 2022, coinciding with Bitcoin’s Wave 5. Related Reading: Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana: Real Vision’s Raoul Pal Calls The Greatest Macro Trade Of All Time During this period, the market saw a rise in interest rates and Quantitative Tightening (QT), where central banks reduced liquidity in financial markets. Since altcoins thrive when there is excess liquidity, economic tightening has led to weak performance for these digital currencies. Severino argues that Bitcoin’s Wave 5 lacked the usual strength of a true bull market top. Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, the fifth wave has always been weaker than the third in terms of price speed, volume, and breadth. The analyst also referenced a textbook that explains that Wave 5 tends to be sideways and weak, often preceding the bear market as it indicates waning momentum. The overall conclusion of Severino’s analysis is that the altcoin bear market, which began more than three years ago, has never really ended since economic conditions haven’t returned to what they were before 2022. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
On Tuesday, February 19, the Federal Reserve released their meeting minutes, revealing that central bankers are considering an end—or at least a significant slowdown—to quantitative tightening (QT). The document states: “Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” These remarks have fueled optimism among Bitcoin experts who view the potential end of QT as a bullish signal. Many see it as a precursor to greater liquidity entering financial markets, a condition that has historically benefited risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The newly published minutes confirm that certain Fed officials are worried about the interaction between ongoing balance sheet reduction and the looming debt ceiling debate. The possibility of large-scale US Treasury issuance once the debt ceiling is resolved appears to be a key driver behind calls to pause or halt QT. Related Reading: Bears In Trouble? Bitcoin Liquidity Signals A Brutal Squeeze To $111,000 No explicit shift to quantitative easing (QE) was announced, but the acknowledgment that balance sheet reduction might be curtailed has been enough to stoke speculation in digital asset circles. The minutes must be unanimously approved by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), further suggesting an intentional message from policymakers. Implications For Bitcoin Renowned market commentator and host of the On the Margin podcast, Felix Jauvin, took to X to emphasize the significance of the Fed’s signaling, writing: “There it is, QT coming to an end this spring. Reminder that every FOMC member has to unanimously approve these minutes, this is intentional.” While Jauvin underscores the unanimity behind these minutes, he stops short of predicting an immediate shift toward QE. Instead, he points to a specific chain of events that the Fed seems to be navigating. The Fed has already reduced the pace of balance sheet runoff by half compared to its initial rate. Jauvin also notes that as the reverse repo facility (RRP) nears zero and the Fed reaches its target reserve level of roughly 3% of GDP, an end to QT becomes more likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Meets Fiscal Reality: Fidelity’s Timmer Predicts What’s Next Moreover, concerns loom over the Treasury General Account (TGA) potentially being rebuilt once the debt ceiling is resolved, leading to sizable bill issuance which could lead to interim disruptions in funding markets. Therefore, rather than pivot to QE, Jauvin believes the Fed could pursue a temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, allowing commercial banks to absorb additional government debt. “They are very very very very far from any sort of formal QE. Instead, it’s more likely they pursue an SLR exemption allowing commercial banks to be the marginal buyer of debt,” Jauvin predicts. A formal return to QE, Jauvin concludes, would only materialize if financial and economic conditions deteriorate significantly, including a major collapse in risk assets and a drop in rates to near zero. In response to an X user asking if ending QT is bullish without necessarily indicating an immediate move to QE, Jauvin offered a succinct explanation: “Therefore think for the current liquidity backdrop it is marginally improving in that we will have the possible sequence of TGA drawdown into QT ending into potentially SLR exemption, and that’ll be it for now. QE shouldn’t even be in the current vocabulary of discourse as it stands.” Renowned crypto analyst Pentoshi agrees, highlighting a previously published forecast: “QT coming to an end… My guess, QT ends by start of Q3. With all that’s taking place currently Trump will likely end up forcing it. Was correct on QT guess in Nov 21. Let’s see.” He cited how the conclusion of quantitative easing in late 2021 coincided with the end of the crypto bull run. Now, market watchers are keenly observing whether the inverse—a potential termination of QT—could spark renewed momentum for Bitcoin and other digital assets. At press time, BTC traded at $97,208. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Both retail and institutional adoption and interest in Bitcoin continue to see notable growth following the recent price upswing over the past week, which has led to a huge rise in BTC’s dominance over other cryptocurrency assets in the market. Bitcoin’s Market Dominance Almost Over With Bitcoin persistently witnessing a significant price rally, its dominance […]