All eyes in global finance are glued to liquidity. As the global broad money supply reaches a record $142 trillion, this monetary firehose has macro investors sitting up in their seats. Surging 6.7% year-on-year as of September, China, the EU, and the U.S. are driving this unprecedented expansion, and Bitcoin and the broader crypto market […]
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Arthur Hayes argues that the next leg of the crypto cycle will be driven not by a headline pivot to quantitative easing, but by a “stealth” version executed through the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF). In a new essay titled “Hallelujah” published on November 4, 2025, the former BitMEX CEO lays out a balance-sheet-driven case that persistent US fiscal deficits, hedge-fund demand for Treasuries financed via repo, and the Fed’s need to cap funding stress will translate into incremental dollar liquidity that ultimately “pumps the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos.” As he frames the core mechanism: “Government issued debt grows the money supply.” Hayes’ logic chain begins with an observation on political incentives and the arithmetic of public finance. Governments can fund spending with “savings or debt,” and in his view elected officials “will always favor borrowing from the future to get re-elected in the present.” For the United States, he contends that the trajectory is already set: “Here are the estimates from the TBTF banksters, and a few US government agencies. As you can see, the estimates are for ~$2 trillion deficits funded by ~$2 trillion of borrowing.” In his model, once one accepts that “Yearly Federal Deficit = Yearly Treasury Debt Issuance Amount,” the next critical question is who actually buys that debt, and on what financing. Fed’s Stealth QE Will “Pump Crypto” He dismisses foreign central banks as dependable marginal buyers after the US sanctioned and immobilized Russian reserves in 2022. “If Pax Americana is willing to steal Russia’s money… then no foreign owner of treasuries is ever safe,” he writes, concluding reserve managers “would rather buy gold than treasuries.” He likewise downplays the capacity of the US household sector given that “the 2024 personal savings rate was 4.6%” while “the US federal deficit was 6% of GDP,” and he argues the largest US money-center banks have increased their Treasury holdings by only “~$300 billion” in fiscal 2025 against issuance of “$1,992 billion,” making them meaningful but not decisive. Related Reading: Caution In The Crypto Market: Expert Warns Of Bearish Phase Unfolding This November Instead, Hayes positions relative-value hedge funds—particularly those booking positions via Cayman vehicles—as the marginal, price-setting bid for US duration. Citing a recent Federal Reserve study, he quotes: “Cayman Islands hedge funds purchased, on net, $1.2 trillion of Treasury securities… [between] January 2022 and December 2024… [and] absorbed 37% of net issuance of notes and bonds.” The trade architecture is straightforward: “Buy a cash treasury debt security vs. sell the corresponding treasury futures contract,” then lever the tiny basis through repo funding. Because the edge is “measured in basis points,” the trade only works if leverage is cheap and predictable every day. That funnel leads directly to the SRF. Hayes lays out the Fed’s short-rate corridor—“Upper and Lower Fed Funds; currently these equal 4.00% and 3.75% respectively”—and the policy plumbing that keeps market rates inside it: the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) at the lower bound for money-market funds (MMFs) and banks, interest on reserve balances (IORB) for banks in the middle, and the SRF at the upper bound as the emergency spigot. Lower Fed Funds = RRP < IORB < SRF = Upper Fed Funds,” he summarizes, adding that the target, SOFR, normally oscillates inside the band. Stress occurs “when SOFR trades above the Upper Fed Funds,” which he calls “a problem” because “the filthy fiat financial system shuts down” once participants can’t roll overnight leverage at a stable rate. In his telling, the cash supply that cushions SOFR is structurally thinner than it was when the Fed began quantitative tightening in early 2022. MMFs, he says, have drained the RRP to zero because “the T-bill rate is so attractive,” making them less available as repo cash providers. That leaves banks, who will supply liquidity so long as they have ample reserves, but “banks lost trillions in reserves since the Fed began QT.” Set against that diminished supply of cash is relentless demand for repo financing from RV funds, whose “marginal” Treasury purchases must be levered. If SOFR threatens to pierce the ceiling and repo becomes unreliable, the Fed’s SRF must backstop the system to prevent a funding accident. “Because a similar situation occurred in 2019, the Fed created the SRF,” Hayes writes. “The Fed can supply an infinite amount of cash using its printing press at SRF as long as one provides an acceptable form of collateral.” His conclusion is blunt: “If the SRF balances are above zero, then we know the Fed is cashing the checks of the politicians using printed money.” Hayes labels this dynamic “Stealth QE.” He argues the optics of outright balance-sheet expansion via asset purchases are now politically toxic—“QE is a dirty word… QE = money printing = inflation”—so the central bank will prefer to meet marginal dollar demand via SRF lending rather than by visibly creating excess reserves. What This Means For The Crypto Market The result is functionally similar from a liquidity standpoint, in his view: repo credit distributed by the Fed against Treasuries still increases spendable dollars in the system to finance government borrowing. “This will buy some time, but eventually the exponential expansion of treasury debt issuance will force the repeated use of the SRF,” he writes. “Stealth QE will begin shortly. I don’t know when it will begin. But… the SRF balance must grow as the lender of last resort. As SRF balances grow, the amount of fiat dollars in the world expands as well. This phenomenon will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.” He also sketches a near-term tactical backdrop that helps explain recent market tone across crypto. While auctions are pulling cash into the Treasury General Account, he notes, fiscal spending has been temporarily impeded by the government shutdown, producing a net drain in private-sector liquidity. Related Reading: Crypto Bull Case Vs. Bear Case: These Forces Divide The Market “The Treasury General Account is above the $850 billion target by ~$150bn,” he writes, arguing that this “extra liquidity won’t get released into the markets until the government reopens,” contributing to “current softness in the crypto markets.” In other words, the same fiscal engine that ultimately forces the Fed’s hand via the SRF can, in the very short run, sap liquidity when issuance front-runs outlays. Hayes’ rhetoric remains intentionally sharp. He describes Treasuries as “dog shit” at prevailing real yields, calls the buy-side “debt shit eaters,” and opens with a hymn to Bitcoin’s monetary properties—“Praise be to Lord Satoshi that time and compounding interest exist regardless of who you are.” The provocation serves the point: if the marginal financing of US deficits increasingly relies on opaque backstops rather than transparent reserve creation, then crypto’s native, non-sovereign liquidity cycles will key off the same hidden plumbing. He distills the investment upshot in a single sentence: “Treasury Debt Amount Issued = Increase in Supply of Dollars.” The essay is not a calendar call. Hayes refuses to timestamp the inflection—“I don’t know when it will begin”—and he warns that “between now and when stealth QE begins, one has to husband capital. Expect a choppy market,” especially with shutdown dynamics distorting flows. But he is unequivocal on direction once SRF usage becomes persistent: “Stealth QE will begin shortly… [and] will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.” For crypto investors conditioned to watch CPI prints and FOMC dots, the message is to track money-market microstructure instead. In Hayes’ framework, when SRF balances stop being a rounding error and start trending, that is the tell that dollar liquidity has quietly flipped—and that crypto isn’t topping yet. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.41 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has entered a period of relative calm, with its price oscillating between $81,000 and $89,000 over the past several sessions. This newfound stability has reassured many traders, as the odds of a sharp decline below $80,000 have diminished significantly. Selling pressure is starting to ease, buyers are gradually stepping in, and the market appears to be in an accumulation phase, which is often a precursor to another rally. Even with selling pressure easing, there’s still a risk of breakdown below $80,000 at any moment. However, dormer BitMEX CEO and renowned crypto investor Arthur Hayes recently shared a bold projection that Bitcoin will reach $110,000 before retesting the $76,500 price level. Arthur Hayes Predicts $110,000 Will Come Before Any Pullback to $76,500 As it stands, Bitcoin is closer to $75,000 than it is to $110,000, but popular crypto commentator Arthur Hayes believes the leading cryptocurrency will reach the latter before the former. A climb to $110,000 will translate to a new all-time high for Bitcoin, as its current peak is $108,786, set in January. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Arthur Hayes Says Be Patient After Bitcoin’s 36% Crash, Reveals Possible Bottom At present, Bitcoin is trading about 20.3% below that high, and concerns about a deeper correction are valid. The possibility of a pullback to $76,500 is still a genuine concern, especially since that price sits just under this month’s local low, and it can be quickly retested before another bounce upwards. Hayes’ comments on social media platform X offered both a price target and a macroeconomic rationale. Hayes stated, “I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k,” clarifying that the momentum of the market and shifts in monetary policies are more likely to push the Bitcoin price up rather than another correction towards $76,500. He went further to suggest that once Bitcoin crosses $110,000, it may not look back until it starts approaching $250,000. This price target resonates with outlooks from other crypto analysts. Incoming Shifts In Monetary Policies Central to Hayes’ reasoning is the Federal Reserve’s changing stance on liquidity. He pointed out that the Fed is transitioning from quantitative tightening (QT) to a new phase of quantitative easing (QE), particularly in the Treasury markets. Although the Fed has been engaged in quantitative tightening (QT) since June 2022, there are now discussions about pausing or slowing down the balance sheet runoff. According to Reuters, some analysts predict a shift towards a more QE-like approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: LTF Head And Shoulders Pattern Predicts Crash – Here’s The Target This shift could potentially inject more liquidity into the financial system, pushing assets like Bitcoin to higher price levels. Hayes also dismissed concerns about inflation, stating that the Fed Chairman appears to view it as “transitory inflation.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $86,600, having traded at an intraday high of $88,713 in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
A fresh infusion of liquidity from the US Treasury General Account (TGA) is making waves among market observers, with some analysts speculating this could be a key trigger for Bitcoin’s next major move. While the Federal Reserve continues its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, the TGA’s latest cash injection—pegged at up to $842 billion—has sparked debate over whether we are witnessing a stealth version of quantitative easing, sometimes referred to as “Not QE, QE.” Fed’s “Not QE, QE” In a post shared on X, macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) offered a breakdown of how this dynamic is playing out: “‘Not QE, QE’ has officially started. A liquidity injection that could total up to $842bn from the US Treasury General Account began this week. Functionally, this is similar to Quantitative Easing, but on a temporary basis.” The backdrop for this liquidity surge is the binding $36 trillion US debt limit. With no new debt issuance allowed until a fresh debt ceiling agreement is reached, the Treasury is forced to rely on funds from the TGA to cover government spending obligations. This draws down the TGA balance—$842 billion as of Tuesday, February 11—effectively injecting liquidity into financial markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Network Activity Is Declining — Impact On Price? According to Tomas, the Treasury’s “train” of TGA spending started in earnest on Wednesday, February 12: “From my understanding, the official ‘debt ceiling-induced’ Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown began on Wednesday February 12… This train is now in motion and will not stop until lawmakers come to a new debt ceiling agreement.” He projects that the first segment of this process will likely involve around $600 billion in injections between February 12 and April 11. After the April tax season, a temporary replenishment of the TGA could occur, but until a new debt ceiling deal is reached, the Treasury will presumably continue to spend down existing cash reserves. While some observers are hailing this development as a de facto round of QE, Tomas underscores that the final net impact depends on two critical drains on liquidity: The Federal Reserve is rolling off assets at about $55 billion per month, which Tomas expects to continue at least through the next FOMC meeting in March. Over two months, that translates to an estimated $110 billion liquidity reduction. With the Treasury issuing fewer T-bills due to debt-ceiling constraints—termed “net negative T-bill issuance”—money market funds may have fewer short-term government securities to buy. This scarcity could prompt them to park more cash in the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility, which effectively drains liquidity from the broader market. Tomas notes: “This may incentivize money market funds to park cash in the Fed’s Reverse Repo, potentially pushing this chart up… Reverse Repo usage increasing would be a liquidity drain, as money would be moving away from markets and into the Reverse Repo facility at the Fed.” Overall, the true scale of the TGA-based stimulus remains uncertain. Last week, net injections into the system were estimated at $50 billion, a figure that could fluctuate in the weeks ahead as QT and Reverse Repo demand evolve. Another key piece of the puzzle is the ongoing political deadlock over the debt ceiling. Despite calls for bipartisan cooperation, divisions within the narrow Republican majority—combined with broad Democratic opposition—complicate prospects for a swift resolution. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is ‘Primed For A Breakout’: Is BTC Heading For $150,000 Rally? House Republicans recently put forward a plan tying “trillions of dollars” in tax cuts to raising the debt ceiling. However, the measure’s passage is far from assured, as deeply conservative members object to any debt limit increase on principle. Past increases have typically required cross-party support, indicating a potentially prolonged standoff. “This comes down on the shoulders of House Speaker Mike Johnson, as he attempts to rally lawmakers behind the plan,” Tomas notes, reflecting widespread skepticism about whether sufficient votes can be secured. Will Bitcoin Benefit? For Bitcoin traders, these liquidity ebbs and flows often correlate with broader risk appetite—Bitcoin has historically seen upward price movements during periods of loose monetary policy and liquidity injections. Although the Federal Reserve has signaled no immediate halt to QT, the TGA drawdown’s near-term flood of cash could still buoy risk assets, including Bitcoin. Precisely how much of this “Not QE, QE” trickles into Bitcoin remains to be seen. Yet, for market participants watching daily net liquidity metrics, the interplay between TGA drawdowns, QT, and Reverse Repo usage has become a central storyline. As the standoff in Washington continues, the Bitcoin space will be monitoring every uptick and downtick in the Fed’s liquidity charts—hoping it might just flip the switch on Bitcoin’s next big breakout. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $96,424. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In his testimony on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes for another round of quantitative easing (QE), reiterating that “QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero” and that the Fed remains “a long ways away from ending QT.” This stance challenges the notion that a quick pivot to aggressive easing might buoy Bitcoin and the entire crypto market as it did in past cycles. End Of The Bull Run For Bitcoin And Altcoins? Macro analyst Alex Krüger posted on X that “we are ages away from QE,” stressing that some market participants needed to hear Powell’s stance clearly. Another commentator, Tagoo, noted there is “no need for QE, only for discontinuation of QT,” prompting Krüger to respond that it may take “a few more months” for QT to wind down. Felix Jauvin, the host of the On the Margin podcast, commented via X: “For the QE is coming soon dreamers, I hope you just heard what powell said “QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero”. You don’t want zero rates and QE. That means a LOT of pain has to happen in the interim. QE isn’t coming to save your overleveraged alt bags anytime soon.” Jauvin believes the US economy has shifted from a period of stagnation to a more fundamental growth phase. According to him, “we can still see bull markets and a bid in risk assets without these monetary plumbing tricks,” since he views this as a healthier, productivity-led environment—one he calls “an economic golden age.” Dan McArdle reminded followers that markets can remain risk-on “with a decent economy and some credit expansion.” He cautioned the crypto community against anchoring expectations solely to zero-interest-rate policies and QE, suggesting that a steady economy could still support Bitcoin’s upside. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), framed Powell’s comments within “The Everything Code,” contending that QE is only one part of the global liquidity picture. While the Fed might not pivot to QE soon, Bittel pointed out that other factors, such as actions by the People’s Bank of China, private credit creation, or shifts in the Treasury General Account, can also inject liquidity into markets. “The Fed’s got other tools, and they’ve been working with the Treasury since Covid to smooth out the QT impact through the TGA and RRP,” Bittel remarked. He reminded traders that “it’s not just the Fed in this equation” and noted that Chinese rates heading toward zero heightens the possibility of China rolling out some form of QE. “Back in 2017, the Fed was a small player in the liquidity game. In fact, the Fed was doing QT and hiking rates all year, yet risk assets still flourished and Bitcoin did a 23x following the sharp but short 28% correction in January,” he added. Crypto analyst Kevin also argues that Bitcoin may not strictly require QE to thrive. However, he pointed out that “we have also never seen a macro cycle top in BTC Dominance” during active QT, casting doubt on the likelihood of a robust altcoin season anytime soon. “I still believe my analysis tells me sometime in Q2 it will end but if we take Powell at face value then altcoins season callers everyday for the last 2 years will continue to look more lost and wrong then they already are and have been,” Kevin stated. At press time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
After a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made a swift recovery, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20. However, according to a crypto analyst, further upside could be limited until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Bitcoin To Remain Range-Bound Until FOMC Meeting The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been on a bullish trajectory since November, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Over the past three months, BTC has surged from approximately $67,000 to $104,536 at the time of writing, posting gains of over 50%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast Of $150,000 ‘Too Low’ Amid Rising Adoption, Crypto Trader Says However, crypto analyst Krillin predicts that BTC may continue to “chop” in the $100,000 to $110,000 range until the FOMC meeting. The analyst suggests that unless the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary policy measures, BTC is unlikely to break out of this range before the end of the month. At present, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Krillin expects a market dump to follow the anticipated hawkish meeting, which may be partially offset by a dovish-sounding press conference hinting at future quantitative easing (QE). For the uninitiated, QE is a monetary policy where central banks inject money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and other financial assets to lower interest rates and stimulate economic activity. This increased money supply can weaken fiat currencies, potentially driving investors toward assets like BTC, boosting its price as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Krillin’s prediction aligns with a recent market observation which states that BTC profit-taking has declined by 93% from its December peak, and that the long-term holders are back in accumulation mode, preparing for the next leg up. However, how long the current consolidation phase may last is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes a sharp decline in capital inflows into the digital assets market, from $134 billion on December 10 to $43.37 billion. This low liquidity could result in sharp price swings, increasing the risk of liquidations for leverage traders. Will BTC Peak In Q2 2025? As BTC awaits the FOMC meeting to determine its next price trend, some analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency could hit its market cycle peak in Q2 2025 as more institutions embrace the asset under favourable regulations. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report For example, crypto analyst Dave The Wave recently predicted that BTC will likely peak in the summer of 2025. A report by Bitfinex supports this outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, albeit with minor corrections along the way. That said, Bitcoin must defend the $100,000 price level, as failure to do so could see the asset drop to as low as $97,500. At press time, BTC trades at $104,536, up 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com