Crypto analyst Colin has highlighted the Bitcoin price’s deviation from the Global M2 money supply, raising concerns that the bull run may be over. The analyst quickly addressed concerns, noting how such deviations usually happen at some point but don’t invalidate the macro trend. Analyst Highlights Bitcoin Price’s Deviation From Global M2 Money Supply In an X post, Colin revealed that the Bitcoin price has deviated from the global M2 money supply. He noted that this deviation was short-term in an otherwise broad correlation. The analyst added that this current deviation is similar to the position that BTC was in February 2025. Related Reading: Will The Bitcoin Price Move Above $110,000 Again? Global M2 Money Supply Shows What’s Next Colin remarked that this development doesn’t mean the M2 is broken, just as it wasn’t broken back in February. Instead, he claimed that it just means that market participants haven’t zoomed out enough and are allowing for the non-correlated periods. The analyst added that non-correlation between the Bitcoin price and global M2 money supply happens 20% of the time. He then alluded to the regular chart, which shows the strong correlation between the Bitcoin price and the global M2 money supply. Colin explained that the M2 is “directionally predictive” for BTC and that it is not 1:1 price-related. The analyst further remarked that the M2 does not predict a specific BTC price. Instead, the global M2 money supply only predicts the market direction, with about 80% accuracy. Colin added that the Bitcoin price has its y-axis while the M2 is on a different y-axis. He also opined that the M2 may decouple from BTC near the cycle top. Although the analyst didn’t provide a timeline for when the cycle top will be, his analysis indicates that the cycle top is not yet in and the bull run isn’t over. Money Supply Shows No Need To Worry About BTC Price In an X post, market expert Raoul Pal suggested that the Bitcoin price’s correlation with the money supply shows that there is no need to worry about the current price action. He remarked that if 89% of BTC’s price action is explained by global liquidity, then by definition, almost all “news” and “narrative” is noise. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: Bitcoin Price Primed For Deep Correction Below $90,000 This suggests that the current geopolitical risks, heightened by the Israel-Iran conflict, are unlikely to impact the Bitcoin price as much as expected. Trading firm QCP Capital recently noted that the flagship crypto has yet to show full-blown panic, which shows how much the asset has matured. The firm remarked that BTC’s resilient price action appears underpinned by continued institutional accumulation, with companies like Strategy and Metaplanet buying the dip. The Bitcoin ETFs also continue to record positive flows. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $104,700, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Altcoins led by ETH, DOGE, SUI followed BTC higher as Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on U.S.-China trade boosted risk appetite.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently discussed the Bitcoin price action and provided insights into the flagship crypto’s future trajectory. Specifically, he alluded to BTC’s RSI, which is showing a similar pattern to last year, just before the rally to new highs. Bitcoin’s RSI Targeting Daily Retest That Triggered 2024 Price Rally In an X post, Rekt Capital revealed that Bitcoin’s RSI is targeting a daily retest that triggered the 2024 price rally. He mentioned that last week, the daily RSI successfully performed a post-breakout retest of the RSI downtrend, which dates back to November 2024, to confirm the breakout. He added that the RSI is now going for another retest of that same downtrend. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin RSI Dominance Needs To Crash To This Level For The Bull Run To Resume The Bitcoin price rallied to $100,000 during this November 2024 period following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. Rekt Capital’s accompanying chart showed that the RSI is retesting the 40 zone, with a break below this level likely to spark another downtrend for the flagship crypto. On the other hand, holding above this RSI level could spark another uptrend for BTC, sending its price to new highs. However, the Bitcoin price looks more likely to face another major correction at the moment, having dropped from its weekly high of around $88,500 to below $84,000 on Friday. Macro factors like Donald Trump’s tariffs and the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening policies are weakening the flagship crypto’s bullish momentum. Trading firm QCP Capital opined that any short-term upside for the Bitcoin price remains capped as markets wait for clarity from Trump’s next move in the escalating trade war. The PCE inflation data, which was released on Friday, also sparked a bearish outlook for BTC as the core index rose beyond expectations. BTC Could Form Local Bottom At Current Price Level Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto suggested that the Bitcoin price could form a local bottom at its current price level. He noted that BTC is still holding above a strong confluence of supports, including the monthly Tenkan and midline of the monthly Fair Value Gap. The analyst added that the last two times BTC has held these supports, it has marked a local bottom. Related Reading: Popular Analyst PlanB Expects Bitcoin Price To Double In 2025 As Bear Market Is Not Here In an earlier post, Titan of Crypto had raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price rallying to $91,000 soon. He stated that a bullish pennant had formed on the 4-hour chart. According to him, if this pattern breaks to the upside, the BTC target is around $91,400. Meanwhile, legendary trader Peter Brandt looks bearish as he recently predicted that BTC could drop to as low as $65,635. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,900, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
BTC's breakout has the market in a state of euphoria, QCP Capital said.
It is the election season in the United States, and Bitcoin and the broad cryptocurrency industry have never been more involved in the political landscape. From the openly friendly stance of former President Donald Trump to the relatively reserved position of Vice President Kamala Harris, there has been quite some drama in the interplay between […]
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on CNBC means more to QCP's founder and chief investment officer rather than presidential candidates promoting crypto.
Following the approval of options trading on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) on Nasdaq, it was only a matter of time until the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized ETF options trading on other exchanges. On Friday, October 18, the commission permitted the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange […]
The price of Bitcoin has been on a tear over the past seven days, returning between the $61,000 and $67,000 zone where it spent most of the second quarter. This positive run of form comes despite the FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) due to speculations about Mt. Gox’s customer repayment. Interestingly, recent trading data have led QCP Capital, a prominent trading data, to suggest that Bitcoin might only be warming up for an even bigger price rally. According to the company’s analysts, the premier cryptocurrency looks primed for significant price growth ahead of the United States elections. BTC Price To Reach $100,000 By Year End? Unsurprisingly, the climb of the Bitcoin price from beneath $60,000 to as high as $67,000 in the past week has been one of the hottest topics of discussion amongst investors. Analysts at QCP Capital are amongst the latest set of experts to weigh in on the recent price action of the market leader. Related Reading: Buying ‘Ethereum Beta’ Altcoins Is A Recipe For Disaster, Researcher Finds According to the QCP analysts, the resilient upward movement of the BTC price reflects how the market may have “shaken off” most of its concerns. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency may be preparing to continue its bull run, having spent the better parts of the last quarter in consolidation. The QCP analysts pointed out in the report that the perpetual funding rate is back to a neutral position, signaling a balanced sentiment amongst traders. For context, the funding rate refers to a periodic payment exchanged between buyers and sellers in perpetual futures contracts. What’s more, QCP capital noted that the Bitcoin spot market could persist within the $61,000 – $67,000 range in the short term, especially with traders holding substantial long positions at the July 26 $67,000 strike. Ultimately, investors appear to be betting big on a price upswing ahead of the United States elections. Additionally, there has been steady and significant institutional interest in December $100,000 calls. This suggests an increasing confidence in the potential of a year-end rally for Bitcoin, especially with the rising odds of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming elections. It is worth mentioning that the price of Bitcoin spiked following the assassination attempt on the former United States president. This price movement was linked to the increased odds of a win for Donald Trump, who has been a vocal supporter of the premier cryptocurrency in recent months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin continues to hover around $66,660, reflecting an over 5% increase in the past day. According to CoinGecko data, BTC is up by more than 16% in the past week. Related Reading: Injective (INJ) Breaches Key Resistance, Setting Stage For 1,350% Boom — Analyst Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
While Bitcoin maintains its price above the $60,000 range, some institutional investors are positioned for a positive price trajectory with call options betting on up to $100,000 come year-end. Despite recent pressures from substantial Bitcoin liquidations by the Mt. Gox distribution and sales by the German government, Bitcoin’s price remains notably resilient. These developments indicate a strong appetite for big-money cryptocurrency investments, especially from experienced investors looking to profit off potential end-of-year rallies. Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be On The Verge Of a 30% Gain, Here’s Why $100,000 Call Options Signals This QCP Capital’s analysis highlights this trend, pointing out the continued confidence among institutions despite the German government’s injection of nearly 50,000 BTC into the market and the distribution of over $6 billion worth of Bitcoin to Mt. Gox creditors. These events have significantly increased the available supply of Bitcoin but have surprisingly not dampened the bullish market sentiment. Instead, they have catalyzed a strategic interest in December call options at the $100,000 strike price, underscoring a strong institutional belief in Bitcoin’s upward potential. This update signals that amid the happenings in the crypto market; institutional traders are not just passively observing but actively positioning themselves for what they believe will be a significant uptick in Bitcoin’s value. The focus on December $100,000 call options is more than speculative; it reflects a calculated bet on Bitcoin’s performance amid forthcoming market catalysts like the US elections. QCP Capital noted: This signals an even stronger conviction of a year-end rally as the odds of a Trump victory increases. Bitcoin Stabilizes in Familiar Trading Range Furthermore, QCP Capital revealed that with the perpetual funding rates stabilizing and volatility tapering, Bitcoin appears to be settling into a predictable trading range. This environment provides a relatively stable backdrop for institutions to place substantial bets. According to QCP Capital, large trades are centered around the $67,000 strike options, suggesting market players anticipate moving towards these levels before the month is out. This indicates that while the year-end may be a focus, these institutional players also see intermediate milestones. Related Reading: Watch Out Bears: Bitcoin’s Rally To This Mark Could Trigger $19 Billion Short Squeeze QCP Capital particularly noted: “Perp funding is back to flat, vols are drifting lower and BTC is back in the familiar range of 61k to 71k where it traded within for the entire of Q2 this year. While spot could range here in the near term, especially with dealers very long the 26-Jul 67k Strike, the market is definitely betting big on a breakout heading into the US elections.” Meanwhile, at the time of writing, Bitcoin still maintains its price above the $64,000 mark. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has surged by 2.6% to trade for $65,331 at the time of writing. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
One market observer noted "very concentrated call buying" looking to profit from a rally to between $74,000 and $80,000 by the end of this month.
Both companies plan to develop new institutional digital offerings, while QCP is set to open an Abu Dhabi shop.
Bitcoin could enter a period of consolidation before its next leg in the rally, observers noted.
Bitcoin's sharp rebound from Tuesday's plunge indicates a start of a new rally targeting $76,000, Swissblock said.