In a post on X on October 29, Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, argued that Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC messaging was less about macro uncertainty and more about pressure tactics aimed at the political apparatus — with direct consequences for crypto liquidity. Powell’s FOMC Comments Decoded Thompson wrote: “Powell appeared to be playing political games / posturing / CYA around the December verbiage, possibly to communicate to the admin to get the government reopened. It almost felt like a threat that if no data (due to continued government shutdown), then there won’t be a December cut and the market was briefly thrown off by that uncertainty.” He called out how abnormal it was to hear Powell comment this directly on market expectations: “The immediate reaction made sense given it is quite abnormal to hear Powell comment on market pricing so specifically as he always refrains from doing so and makes a point to say he will not comment on market pricing.” That is the core of Thompson’s read. Powell just broke his own habit. Powell tends to reject any framing that implies the Fed is validating market forward pricing. This time, after the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, Powell said explicitly that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion — far from it.” He underlined that there are “strongly different views” inside the Committee about the speed and depth of further easing. Markets immediately repriced. Treasury yields moved higher and the probability of a December cut fell sharply from near certainty to something closer to a coin flip, and risk assets reacted accordingly. That includes crypto: bitcoin and large-cap crypto assets initially traded lower alongside equities as the market read the comment as a hawkish surprise rather than as positioning. Related Reading: China Intensifies Crypto Crackdown With Latest Warning Against Stablecoins Thompson’s view is that this was not about signaling a hawkish turn. It was about signaling conditionality. He frames Powell’s remarks as a message to the White House and Congress: reopen the government, restore economic data flow, and the Fed has cover to cut again in December; keep the shutdown in place and deny the Fed official data, and Powell can say, on record, that he cannot justify further accommodation. Powell himself emphasized that the central bank has been operating “in the absence of key government data” because the shutdown that began on October 1 has blocked normal labor, inflation, and activity reporting. Thompson characterizes that stance as an implicit warning shot. In his words, “What you infer from that is up to you, but additionally I believe the market may have been surprised by what I believe to be an incorrect Fed reaction function to the government shutdown. There is no scenario in which the economy is stronger because of the shutdown and if they are highlighting continued downside labor market risks, there isn’t a great case to be made to veer from their September dot plot path.” For crypto, the subtext is important: Thompson is saying Powell’s comments were not a signal to tighten financial conditions into year-end. They were leverage in a political negotiation, not a policy ceiling on liquidity. That point is operational, not rhetorical. Thompson is saying the Fed’s stated logic does not actually line up with what the Fed itself claims to be worried about. Powell’s justification for the October 29 cut leaned heavily on labor market softening and downside employment risk. The official FOMC statement pointed to a “shift in the balance of risks” toward weaker employment, noted that job gains have slowed, and acknowledged that unemployment has edged higher. Powell also said inflation is still above target but no longer accelerating the way it was earlier in the year, which is why some members favored faster easing. That mix — weakening labor, cooling inflation, policy cuts — has historically been constructive for crypto because it points to easier dollar liquidity and a lower cost of capital without outright crisis. On the balance sheet, Thompson highlights something that is already documented in Fed and press statements but has not yet fully repriced across risk: “Just a week or two ago the market was not expecting QT to end this soon and today Powell went so far as to discuss the next step in this process being a return to balance sheet growth. These developments are definitively liquidity positive, even though the MBS reinvestment and future purchases will be all or predominantly bills.” What This Means For Crypto In plain terms, the Fed didn’t just cut rates by 25 bps. It also said it will stop quantitative tightening on December 1. That means the Fed will no longer allow its Treasury and mortgage holdings to roll off passively. Instead, it will reinvest maturing Treasuries back into Treasuries and redirect principal paydowns from its mortgage-backed securities portfolio into Treasury bills. Related Reading: Max Bid Crypto Now: Market Maker Wintermute Turns Fully Bullish For crypto, this is the line that matters. When the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet and starts recycling back into bills, it’s effectively injecting incremental dollar liquidity into the system, even if it refuses to call it QE. That liquidity has historically leaked into the parts of the market most sensitive to excess cash and duration scarcity — tech, high beta credit, and crypto. Thompson is basically saying that under the surface of Powell’s cautious language, the Fed just signaled the start of the next crypto liquidity regime. This is a critical liquidity inflection that is easy to miss if the only headline you absorb is “December cut not guaranteed.” Ending QT this early was not a consensus two weeks ago. This is also why Thompson rejects the idea that Powell’s tone was structurally bearish for risk. He writes, “All in all I think the December cut is still quite likely.” He then lays out the macro sequence he expects to see once the shutdown ends: “Ultimately I think they will reopen the government in the next few weeks so there will be data and it is likely to show inflation falling for the next few months and labor market continue its weakening path, and Trump is making deals that likely bring tariffs down which also earns him brownie points with the FOMC.” The message for crypto investors is that once data resumes, it will justify continued easing, not block it. The last part of Thompson’s post moves from mechanics to governance. He points directly at Powell’s expiring authority. “Powell’s term as Chair ends in 6 months and his successor will be known even sooner, creating a shadow Fed chair situation. It remains clear to everyone and the market that the new chair will be friendly towards and help effectuate the admin’s agenda. Given all of the above, it is difficult for me to paint a risk asset bear case based upon liquidity dynamics as all signs point to continued massaging to support markets.” That is the crypto punchline. Thompson is arguing that the institutional bias of the Fed, going into the succession window, is toward maintaining and managing liquidity conditions so markets do not crack. If that bias holds, it is inherently crypto-bullish, because it implies a policy floor under dollar liquidity at the exact moment the Fed is already preparing to halt balance sheet runoff and re-expand via bills. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.73 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points today and hinted that its balance-sheet runoff may soon end, arguably the bigger story for Bitcoin. With the overnight reverse repo facility nearly empty at roughly $14 billion, any further quantitative tightening now drains bank reserves directly. That shift means even small tweaks to QT have […]
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Headed lower on Wednesday ahead of the news, bitcoin remained so in the minutes following the news at $111,700, down 3% over the past 24 hours.
The Fed's quantitative tightening, which began in 2022, has reduced the balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion.
The crypto market retreats after a week of strong ETF inflows, with traders eyeing Powell’s remarks for clues on Fed policy amid data gaps from the government shutdown.
The 180-day call-put skew on Deribit is now most negative in over two years.
The decline in volatility across asset classes likely reflects expectations for easy monetary policy and economic stability; however, some analysts are warning of potential downside risks.
Bitcoin held steady Friday as traders braced for a potential shake-up at the Federal Reserve. United States President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a move that could shift the central bank’s approach to interest rates and market liquidity. The Dow Jones climbed more than 300 points midweek, and the ripple reached the crypto market too—Bitcoin nudged higher to around 106,950 before easing slightly. Related Reading: Double Win: Dogwifhat Jumps 24% Alongside Bitcoin’s $107K Push Markets are reading this as a signal. If Powell is pushed out in favor of someone more open to cutting rates, risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit. The US dollar slipped to a three-year low, and bond yields retreated, adding to the sense that easier money may be coming. For crypto investors, this is a setup worth watching. The #USD fell to a three-year low on intensifying speculation that President Trump could soon nominate a new Fed Chair to replace Powell after his term ends next May, a development that could render him a lame duck writes @johnjhardy in today’s #forex update.… — Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) June 26, 2025 Trump Moves Toward Possible Fed Overhaul Reports from multiple outlets say Trump is seriously considering replacing Powell before his term ends in 2026. Though no official announcement has been made, sources suggest Trump has discussed potential successors with advisors. His criticism of Powell’s policies isn’t new, but the recent rise in inflation concerns and election-year pressure may be accelerating the timeline. The market response was immediate. Traders began to price in a more dovish Fed policy, which generally means lower interest rates and increased liquidity. That would be good news for crypto, which has languished under tighter monetary conditions throughout the last year. Bitcoin, which is often used as a hedge against fiat debasement, likes to rally when the dollar declines and rates come down. Bitcoin Price Reacts With Caution Bitcoin was trading at 106,950 Friday, with a daily high of 107,250 and a low of 106,145. It wasn’t a breakout, but it was a clear sign of rising interest. Ethereum and other top coins saw similar quiet moves upward. Traders are treading carefully, knowing that talk of replacing the Fed chair is one thing, but actually doing it is another. Stocks Lead The Way, Crypto Follows The bullish mood started with equities. The Dow surged more than 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed higher. Tech stocks led the rally, pushed by falling Treasury yields and hopes that rate hikes are off the table for now. That optimism spilled into crypto markets, where risk sentiment plays a big role. Related Reading: TRUMP Token In Trouble? Over $4 Million Liquidity Exit Sparks Crash Fears Crypto Market Eyes Washington There’s still a lot of uncertainty. Powell is in office, and no formal replacement has been named. But the fact that President Trump is entertaining the idea is already moving markets. Crypto investors are especially sensitive to changes in the macro outlook, and this could be a key one. Featured image from Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
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