Bitcoin traders have spent the past month reducing protection against a price decline while the Fed has made its next decision harder to predict. The Bitcoin options put-to-call open-interest ratio has fallen to approximately 0.52 from 0.76 in late June, meaning about 52 put contracts remain open for every 100 calls. Meanwhile, Fed Funds futures […]
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For most of the month, traders had a pretty good explanation for Bitcoin's refusal to budge. A dense cluster of options contracts, they argued, was holding the price in a cage between $60,000 and $65,000, with dealers buying dips and selling rallies to stay hedged. Friday's expiry cleared roughly $1.2 billion of that exposure, and […]
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Bitcoin price faces back-to-back tests this week, with May PCE coming out on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT and more than $10 billion in Bitcoin options settling on Deribit at 08:00 UTC Friday in the quarterly expiry that closes the second quarter. Bitcoin is trading near $62,500 after a rough June that briefly pushed it […]
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Bitcoin is heading into one of the year's largest options expirations at the worst possible moment. CoinGlass data shows roughly $8.07 billion in notional open interest for Deribit's options expiring on April 24, split between 56,300 calls and 49,540 puts. While the ratio itself leans bullish, it's sitting against one of the most uncertain macro […]
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Bitcoin’s rebound on March 4 looked odd if you only watched it through the usual “risk assets are breaking” lens. Oil was jumping, shipping insurers were repricing war risk, and traders were treating the Strait of Hormuz like a live wire. All of the headlines had the cadence of a full-blown crisis. However, Bitcoin climbed […]
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According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market after several of his indicators flipped to bearish in early November. Related Reading: Crypto Headed For A $10 Trillion Future? Hoskinson Says RWA Is The Key Moreno pointed to the price sliding below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and he used that signal to argue a lower trading range may be on the path ahead. Bitcoin Technical Signals, Market Mood Moreno said a likely bottom could sit near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%. Market momentum is muted. Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,050 in October, and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko. Trading hovered around $88,920 as of Friday, based on available data. Derivatives Show Caution Ahead Of Expiry Bitcoin was holding the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 billion in options approached expiry. Reports show derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained flat, a mix that points to hesitation rather than aggressive positioning by traders. Technical measures show price compression near support, and traders are watching expiry closely because a larger move could follow when those contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in some previous selloffs, and that has left price action tighter than many expected. Institutional Accumulation And The Missing Shock Moreno and others note the environment feels structurally different. Large institutional players and regulated ETFs have been buying more regularly, and those flows are not known to be selling in panic. That steady demand has helped prevent the kind of cascading failures seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and amplified losses across the market. Because those big shocks did not occur this time, the drawdown looks more controlled, even if prices are moving down. Outlook Hinges On Macro And Regulation Some analysts still predict 2026 could bring fresh highs, citing expected US rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s tighter link to US stocks holds as macro and regulatory decisions land. If the correlation weakens, crypto may chart its own course. If it stays strong, the path for Bitcoin could be shaped largely by broader market moves rather than crypto-specific flows. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators What Traders Will Watch Based on reports and Moreno’s view, the key items to monitor are the one-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiries, and whether institutional buyers continue steady purchases. Price action has been calmer than some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are split; some expect a return to growth next year, while others are preparing for lower prices before any sustained recovery. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
A year-end options expiry for bitcoin is suppressing volatility just as macro and risk-asset positioning turns supportive for a higher price.
Bitcoin’s options market is large, liquid, and (at the moment) unusually concentrated. Total open interest stands near $55.76 billion, with Deribit carrying $46.24 billion of that stack, far ahead of CME at $4.50 billion, OKX at $3.17 billion, Bybit at $1.29 billion, and Binance at $558.42 million, while spot trades in the $92,479.90 area. The […]
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Every few months, headlines warn of a looming multi-billion-dollar options expiry poised to shake Bitcoin price. This quarter’s figure, roughly $13 billion in notional contracts, sounds dramatic, yet it’s part of a well-worn pattern on Deribit, the exchange that clears nearly 90% of Bitcoin’s options open interest. The real story isn’t the size of the […]
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Bitcoin’s options market has split into two very different regimes: a near-term tape that looks locked in place by dealer hedging, and a year-end setup that seems built to let price roam. Bitcoin price around $113,500, down from the August peak near $119,000, but still higher than where it was in early July. That puts […]
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Bitcoin’s derivatives market saw a quiet but meaningful repositioning in July, marked by two liquidation-driven drawdowns in futures and a record expiry event that wiped out over $15 billion in options open interest. These changes took place alongside relatively muted price action, as Bitcoin hovered between $101,000 and $110,000 throughout June before stabilizing near $107,000 […]
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Put-call skews show no clear directional positioning for traders in the short-term.
Today is a crucial day in the cryptocurrency market, as more than $14 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are due to expire. Such a huge expiration may result in significant price changes and trading volumes. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $85,000, down by 3% from earlier this week. Related Reading: Pi Coin Sinks 47% In 14 Days—What’s Behind The Massive Drop? Market Reaction To Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expiry Based on figures from Greeks.live, the aggregate options expiring today comprises 139,000 Bitcoin options worth about $12.1 billion. Another 301,000 Ethereum options worth about $2.13 billion are also expiring. The put-call ratios of these options stand at 0.49 for Bitcoin and 0.39 for Ethereum, reflecting differing degrees of trader sentiment. 28 Mar Options Data 139,000 BTC options are expiring with a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a Maxpain point of $85,000 and a notional value of $12.1 billion. 301,000 ETH options are expiring with a Put Call Ratio of 0.39, a Maxpain point of $2,400 and a notional value of $2.13 billion.… pic.twitter.com/1zcEz3VBss — Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) March 28, 2025 Understanding Max Pain Points Each quarter, options expirations such as today’s can cause substantial market movements. Market makers typically follow a strategy that has the effect of driving asset prices to what are referred to as max pain points. The max pain point for Bitcoin is $85,000, and that for Ethereum is $2,400. This approach may be the reason behind Bitcoin’s drop as traders respond to these technical points. Broader Market Sentiment Although the options expiration is the most prominent on everyone’s mind, other things are also affecting market dynamics. Media reports indicate that uncertainty over new tariffs by US President Donald Trump might be behind the downtrend in Bitcoin and the broader crypto space. Because of that, the effect of today’s options expiration is made more complex by outside market pressures. Challenges Ahead For Investors In the future, Greeks.live cautions that selling pressure is becoming more prevalent in the cryptocurrency market. Several investors might struggle to maneuver the challenges anticipated in the second quarter of 2025. In the absence of new catalysts that would push the prices higher, the market might have a bumpy ride ahead for the buyers to make profits. Related Reading: Data Shock: Shiba Inu Has A Higher Share Of Long-Term Holders Than BTC And ETH As the countdown begins to the expiration, investors and traders are monitoring closely. Today’s events can determine the shape of the market for weeks. With huge amounts of money at risk, the crypto community is preparing for volatility. In short, the expiry of more than $14 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options is set to send waves in the market. Traders are closely watching price action as different factors align, pointing to the intricacies of dealing with the cryptocurrency world. Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView
Over $5 billion of notional value is set to expire this Friday on Deribit at 08:00 UTC.
The size and popularity of the Bitcoin options market have made it one of the best tools for gauging market sentiment and predicting volatility. Previous CryptoSlate analysis found that options wielded an outsized influence over Bitcoin’s price volatility and were responsible for most of the volatility we’ve seen this quarter. Options data has shown a […]
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November's expiry is due Friday at 08:00 UTC, with $9.4 billion in options expiry for bitcoin.Bitcoin's max pain price is $78,000, significantly lower than the current spot price. The majority of the put open interest represent hedging activity and not outright downside bets: European Head of Research at Bitwise - Dragosch.
Popular crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has highlighted vital price levels in the Ethereum (ETH) market following a massive option expiry event. This development comes amidst high whale activity on the Ethereum network. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Ethereum Will Outperform Bitcoin And Solana, Is $12,000 Possible? ETH To Break Out At $2,750, Analyst Says On Friday, approximately $1.02 billion worth of Ethereum options contracts were settled with the max pain point established at $2,600. Amidst this massive option expiry, the price of ETH rose by over 3% to trade at $2,547 despite fears of price decline due to increased market volatility. Following this price gain, Van de Poppe states that Ethereum now finds itself between two routes, especially as the “macroeconomic weeks” approach. Options expire day is done!$ETH bounced upwards, and now the macroeconomic weeks are kicking in. The question is: are we going to see some upward momentum or will it retest $2,000? Testing $2,750 again = breakout. pic.twitter.com/vi3JJ3tNeP — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 25, 2024 Notably, the US elections are set to be held in a fortnight, the results of which are expected to wield a significant effect on the crypto market. Moreover, there is still anticipation of a Fed rate cut in November which could avail liquidity for investing in volatile assets such as Ethereum. First, the analyst postulates that ETH could produce an upward momentum reaching $2750, a significant resistance level at which the token has suffered rejection thrice since August. However, van de Poppe predicts if the second-largest cryptocurrency retests at its price zone again, it will result in a breakout rising as high as $3,350. Alternatively, the crypto analyst forecast Ethereum may experience a price drop in line with its current consolidation pattern. In this case, ETH would initially retest at $2,300. However, amidst massive bearish pressure, the altcoin could fall to $2,000. Related Reading: Ethereum ‘Verge’ Upgrade To Simplify Running Nodes On Phones And Wearables Ethereum Whale Activity Reaches Six-Week High In other news, analytics firm Santiment reports that Ethereum has recorded its highest amount of whale activity over the last six weeks amidst its price decline. Traditionally, this high market activity indicates accumulation by large holders on the Ethereum network, signaling confidence in the asset’s long-term profitability. At press time, ETH trades at $2,445 reflecting a price decline of 1.67% in the past day. However, its daily trading volume is up by 57.97% and is valued at $23.14 billion. The recent dip in ETH’s price can be attributed to a recent controversial report on USDT stablecoin operator Tether, as well as reported Israeli attacks on Iran. Ethereum remains an investors’ favorite ahead of a highly anticipated crypto bull run. Multiple analysts have recently pinpointed a $10,000 price target citing reasons including historical performances in previous bull cycles. Featured image from Forbes, chart from Tradingview
The upcoming 21,000 contract expiry is dwarfed by the significantly larger $4.3 billion options expiry on May 31, according to Deribit.
Traders have scaled back bets of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve ahead of the U.S. GDP report.