Although Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have stalled in the mid-$100,000 range, on-chain data indicates that the top cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum is far from over. BTC recently hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,980, prompting several crypto analysts to forecast even higher prices in the near term. Bitcoin Rally Far From Over, Data Suggests According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crypto Dan, Bitcoin is still “highly likely” to continue its upward trajectory. The analyst shared the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) chart to support this outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near ATH, But Long-Term Holders Aren’t Selling – More Upside Ahead? The NRPL chart highlights the scale of realized profits and losses by market participants who are selling BTC. A relatively low NRPL during price increases typically signals that profit-taking is limited, often indicating the continuation of a bullish trend. In the chart, the current level of profit realization is highlighted in right-most red box. While the recent price surge may trigger a short-term correction, the extent of realized profits does not suggest the end of the ongoing upward cycle. As Dan noted: Compared to the NRPL spikes at past cycle peaks, this round of profit-taking is relatively limited. In particular, when compared to the movements at the highs in March and November 2024, the current level of profit realization is notably lower. Dan concluded that the current level of profit-taking does not point to a major trend reversal. Instead, Bitcoin is poised to continue climbing, potentially targeting levels beyond $120,000 in the coming weeks. Despite the optimism, some market watchers remain cautious. Noted crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently suggested that Bitcoin’s current price action might be a bull trap, with BTC at risk of falling below the $100,000 threshold. For the uninitiated, a bull trap refers to when the asset briefly breaks above a well-established resistance range, leading traders to believe a breakout is occurring, but then quickly reverses and falls back below the resistance level. This move often plays out to lure in long positions before liquidating them as the price drops back into the previous range. Bitcoin Selling Pressure Weak, Retail Yet To Arrive On a more positive note, multiple on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin is not yet near its cycle top. Notably, retail investor participation in the current rally remains limited – a sign that the market may still have room for a second wave of capital inflow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Massive 7,883 BTC Outflow From Coinbase – Are Institutions Loading Up? Likewise, Binance inflow data shows that certain investor groups are not eager to sell their BTC, possibly anticipating further gains. At press time, BTC is trading at $105,659, down 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) made a fresh all-time high (ATH) of $111,880 on Binance crypto exchange following months of downward action during the first quarter of the year. The leading cryptocurrency has rebounded over 45% from its April 6 low of approximately $76,000, and recent whale behavior suggests that long-term holders see further upside potential. Bitcoin ATH Sees Mixed Reaction From Whales According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, new whales – wallets that have held substantial BTC amounts for less than 30 days – have been aggressively taking profits during the current price rally, contributing to increased selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Rises 3.4% As Small Investors Return To The Market – New ATH Soon? In contrast, old whales – wallets holding significant BTC for over six months – have shown minimal selling activity. This indicates long-term confidence in Bitcoin and expectations of continued price appreciation. Meanwhile, whales active between 7 to 30 days ago have engaged in moderate profit-taking, suggesting cautious participation in the ongoing rally. While the restrained activity from old whales is a positive signal, some indicators point to caution regarding the rally’s sustainability. For example, the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) during the current price surge is significantly lower than levels observed during previous 2024-2025 market tops. This indicates weaker overall profit-taking momentum among investors. For the uninitiated, NRPL measures the net profit or loss investors are locking in when they sell their Bitcoin, based on the price difference between acquisition and sale. A high NRPL indicates strong profit-taking behavior, while a low or negative NRPL suggests reduced enthusiasm or capitulation. Is The Market Headed Further Up? Although a low NRPL may imply that the market is not yet euphoric – a potentially healthy sign – it also raises concerns about the strength and sustainability of the ongoing rally. These dynamics could influence BTC’s price trajectory across different timeframes. Related Reading: Buy Bitcoin, Ditch The Banks Before It’s Too Late—Kiyosaki In the short-term, continued profit-taking by new whales may trigger a price correction to neutralize overheated market conditions. A drop in price could send BTC back to the $100,000-$105,000 support zone. In contrast, in the mid-term, the ongoing inactivity of old whales coupled with low NRPL levels could support a bullish continuation after a consolidation phase. Investors may view pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate more BTC. To conclude, while a short-term price correction remains possible, the mid-term outlook for Bitcoin is largely optimistic – assuming old whales maintain their positions and NRPL remains low. This aligns with recent on-chain analyses showing that many new BTC investors are sitting on solid unrealized gains and are not showing signs of panic selling, despite Bitcoin trading close to ATHs. At press time, BTC trades at $111,500, up 4.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com