Crypto analyst Crypto Rover has pointed to a trendline that Bitcoin has never broken below in every market cycle. The leading crypto has now touched this trendline, providing optimism that it could bounce from that level as it did in previous bear cycles. Bitcoin Touches Trendline That Has Led To Parabolic Rallies In an X post, Crypto Rover revealed that Bitcoin has again touched the trendline it has never broken below in 9 years. Instead, BTC has seen parabolic rallies whenever it touches this trendline. In 2017, it rallied 1,300% after touching this trendline; in 2018, it rallied 1,900% after touching it; and in 2020, it rallied another 1,900% after touching it. Bitcoin saw another parabolic rally of 700% after touching this trendline in 2022. Related Reading: The Verdict Is In For Bitcoin: Majority Of Investors Say BTC Price Is Headed Lower, Here Are The Numbers Now, Bitcoin has once again touched this trendline, offering optimism that it could bounce from this region as it did in past cycles. However, in another X post, Crypto Rover suggested that BTC has not yet found a bottom and could still drop below $60,000 before it bottoms. This came as the analyst alluded to BTC’s realized price. He noted that the short-term holders’ (STH) realized price at $74,000 has been reached, but that the realized price of $53,600 and the long-term holders’ (LTH) realized price of $50,000 have not been reached. Crypto Rover added that every prior cycle bottom has traded below the realized price and that every major flush has kissed the LTH line. As such, BTC is still likely to see another move down before it bottoms. Bitcoin is also at risk of another decline with the U.S.-Iran war escalating again. The U.S. carried out strikes against military targets in Iran, which led to retaliatory attacks against U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. A Drop Below $50,000 Is Also A Possibility Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that Bitcoin could still drop below $50,000. This came as he pointed to the Investor Price, which he noted is currently $48,300. He said that this level is a key area he is watching for long-term accumulation. The analyst had described this metric as one of the most important BTC on-chain metrics. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Chart Shows What To Expect For The Next 3 Months After Major Decision Point Martinez explained that this metric measures the average acquisition price of all economically circulating Bitcoin, filtering out permanently lost coins to provide a more realistic market-wide cost basis. However, it is worth noting that the analyst had earlier said that there were signs that BTC was about to reach a market bottom. He pointed to the 1.0-0.8 MVRV bands, which align at $53,900 and $43,150. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $62,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Ardi has drawn attention to an interesting dynamic amid the Bitcoin price bounce from a recent low of around $59,000. Based on his analysis, the BTC bottom has likely not formed, with the leading crypto set to fall to new lows. Analyst Explains What Is Going on Amid Bitcoin Price Bounce In an X post, Ardi said that one of the more interesting developments during this distribution range has been the disconnect between retail and larger market participants. He noted that retail has spent months buying every dip as the Bitcoin price declines, thinking that those declines were likely the bottom being handed on a “silver platter.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Trader Says Something Extremely Bad Is Coming Today, Here’s What While retail investors have been buying the dip, mid-sized and institutional participants have spent the same period selling into every bounce. Ardi noted that people with the least capital are absorbing supply from those with the most. He declared that this is not usually how major bottoms are built in bear cycles, suggesting that the bottom is not yet in. Ardi further remarked that institutional-sized traders do not need retail participation to form a bottom for the Bitcoin price. He added that major bottoms are, in fact, formed after retail finally gives up. However, that is not the case at the moment as retail conviction remains high while larger investors are reducing their exposure. The analyst said that it is hard to argue that true capitulation has occurred until the dynamics change. The Bitcoin ETFs have largely contributed to the latest Bitcoin price crash, with these funds seeing record net outflows over the last month. These ETFs have also seen outflows in 15 out of the last 16 trading days, a development that has significantly put downward pressure on the BTC price. BTC About To Reach A Market Bottom In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that the Bitcoin price is about to reach a market bottom. He cited technical and on-chain metrics that signal that a major macro accumulation cycle is starting. The analyst noted that the recent pullback has successfully flushed out overleveraged premiums across the board and that this move was accelerated by long-term holders who distributed over $3.25 billion in spot BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Crash Has Broken Below A 4-Month Support, But There’s Still One More Play Left With the Bitcoin price declining to $59,000, Martinez revealed that over 10.46 million BTC is currently held at a loss. He noted that historically, every time the supply-in-loss metric crosses the extreme 10 million threshold, it has accurately timed macro bottoms. The analyst also pointed to the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV bands, which suggest that BTC could bottom between $53,900 and $43,150. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $63,200, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com