Morgan Stanley’s filing for a Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), coupled with MSCI’s decision to retain digital asset companies in its index, has ignited a wave of speculation among analysts. Notably, analysts from Bull Theory have alleged that these events could be indicative of a larger-scale market manipulation. Bitcoin Market Manipulation? In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the Bull Theory analysts drew attention to the timeline of events involving Bitcoin, arguing that the trajectory from its October crash to its subsequent recovery in January resembles an orchestrated setup supported by data. The first significant trigger occurred on 10 October, when MSCI — previously a division of Morgan Stanley — proposed removing Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from its global indexes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues: Strategy Purchases 1,287 BTC Amid Rising Prices This decision would affect firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, which hold substantial Bitcoin assets on their balance sheets. The implications were profound, given that MSCI’s indexes guide trillions of dollars in passive investments. If these companies were removed, institutional investors, including pension funds and ETFs, would be compelled to divest, leading to a substantial contraction in institutional exposure to Bitcoin and an immediate tightening of liquidity. Following that announcement, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by nearly $18,000, wiping out over $900 billion from the total crypto market cap. Morgan Stanley And The MSCI Shift The uncertainty continued with a consultation period that remained open until December 31. This three-month window of prolonged anxiety effectively froze investor demand for Bitcoin. Passive investors became wary, index-linked funds faced potential forced selling, and as a result, prices saw a stark decline—with Bitcoin dropping about 31% and altcoins suffering even more, marking the worst quarter for crypto markets since 2018. However, the tide began to shift on January 1, 2026, as Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge, rising 8% in just five days. This $7,300 increase, from $87,500 to $94,800, left many analysts puzzled, especially since the relentless selling had seemingly halted abruptly. The analysts noted that this sudden upturn could imply that insiders might have had prior knowledge of forthcoming developments. Then, the narrative shifted dramatically on January 5 and 6. In a matter of 24 hours, Morgan Stanley unveiled its plans for spot Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana ETFs. This was followed by MSCI announcing its decision not to proceed with the previously proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies from its indexes. A Calculated Move? The sequence of these events has led the analysts to present a narrative: MSCI initiated pressure by threatening index removals in October, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and suppressed prices. Related Reading: Solana Shatters Records: 2025 Annual Review Reveals New All-Time Highs In Key Metrics Once institutions had accumulated at lower prices, Morgan Stanley introduced its ETF, and MSCI subsequently removed the threat of exclusion, raising serious concerns about the possibility of coordinated efforts to manipulate market conditions. Bull Theory analysts assert that as the market now transitions back towards liquidity, the same entities that potentially orchestrated the prior downturn may be strategically positioned to profit from the rebound. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $91,550, having retraced 2% from the $95,000 2-month high reached at the beginning of the week. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Over the past few months, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), the largest publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company, has found itself at the center of a pressing issue that could lead to its exclusion from the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index. This potential move not only poses significant financial risks for the firm but could also have broader implications for the cryptocurrency sector, with analysts estimating that it could result in losses up to $9 billion in demand for its shares. Industry-Wide Consequences The MSCI proposed in October that companies holding digital assets comprising 50% or more of their total assets should be removed from its global benchmarks, arguing that such companies resemble investment funds, which are excluded from its indexes. However, many firms, including Strategy, assert that they are operational companies creating innovative products and argue that MSCI’s proposal is biased against the cryptocurrency industry. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Support Shattered, Potential $100 Test Looms, Says Analyst MSCI is currently conducting a public consultation, and analysts warn that if it decides to exclude Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, it could prompt other index providers to follow suit. “The conversation already extends beyond just MSCI… to the eligibility of DATs in equity indexes in general,” said Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies, who anticipates that most equity indexes will align with MSCI’s decisions. Asset managers are believed to hold as much as 30% of a large-cap company’s free float, leading to potentially significant outflows if these companies are dropped from major indexes. This situation is particularly precarious for the DAT sector, which often finances its token purchases by selling stock. The company’s CEO, Phong Le, and co-founder Michael Saylor addressed the potential MSCI exclusion in a public letter. They estimated that such a move could lead to $2.8 billion worth of the company’s stock being liquidated and may “chill” the entire industry. In their letter, they explained that excluding DATs could shut them out from the roughly $15 trillion passive investment market, drastically undermining their competitive standing. Major Outflows Predicted For Strategy Analysts at TD Cowen estimated in November that around $2.5 billion of Strategy’s market value is linked to MSCI, with an additional $5.5 billion reliant on other indexes. JPMorgan’s analysis suggested that if MSCI were to exclude Strategy, the company could see $2.8 billion in outflows, a figure that could rise to $8.8 billion if it faced exclusion from other indexes, such as the Nasdaq 100, the CRSP US Total Market Index, and various Russell indexes owned by LSEG. In addition to Strategy, MSCI’s preliminary list identifies 38 companies at risk of exclusion, with a combined issuer market cap of $46.7 billion as of September 30, including French firm Capital B, which is also investing in Bitcoin. Related Reading: Crypto Payments Firm MoonPay Set For $5 Billion Valuation With NYSE Owner’s Backing Alexandre Laizet, Capital B’s director of Bitcoin strategy, remarked that while the current holdings of passive funds in their shares are limited, having access to passive flows is crucial for future adoption. Matt Cole, CEO of US-based Bitcoin buyer Strive—which is not at risk of exclusion—notes that the proposals have largely been factored into market valuations. He added, “On a longer-term basis, I think it raises the cost of capital for all Bitcoin treasury companies.” At the time of writing, the firm’s stock, which trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol MSTR, was trading at $165, marking gains of almost 4% ahead of the close of trading this week. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com