MSCI’s proposed reclassification and potential index exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies now looms over the market as a major structural overhang, says Dr. Avtar Sehra, founder and CEO of STBL. This helps explain the lack of a sustained recovery in crypto prices since the October 10th crash.
There comes a point when long-standing detractors become so vocal, their tone shifting from criticism to arrogance, that it often reflects conditions that are consistent with a bottom.
Strategy Inc., the corporate Bitcoin vault formerly known as MicroStrategy, has signaled that the mechanics driving its rapid growth have hit a cyclical wall. On Dec. 1, the Tysons Corner-based firm revealed that it was prioritizing a $1.44 billion cash reserve and providing investors with detailed parameters for potential asset sales. This represents a pragmatic […]
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In a turbulent market marked by falling prices, Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dipped below the $85,000 threshold, driven by growing speculation that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be on the verge of selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. This intensified after a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, during which Strategy CEO Phong Le was directly asked whether the company would consider parting with any of its BTC holdings. While the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently maintained a resolute stance against selling, Le’s comments have raised concerns about potential sales in the future. Is A Bitcoin Sell-Off Imminent? Le indicated that if Strategy’s stock trades below the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, selling some Bitcoin could become a necessity. “If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin… then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained. While this does not confirm an imminent sale, it visibly places the option on the table, leading to increased speculation about a forced sale as preferred dividend payments approach due on December 31. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing Today Adding to the unease, Strategy disclosed in a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has established a USD Reserve of $1.44 billion to cover these upcoming preferred dividends and mitigate the interest on its substantial debt. This reserve was funded through the proceeds from sales of its class A common stock under the company’s at-the-market offering program. Such moves have diluted current shareholders and contributed to a nearly 11% drop in Strategy’s stock price. Strategy Downgrades BTC Price Forecast This shift contrasts sharply with the company’s previous forecasts, which predicted that Bitcoin would soar to $150,000 by the end of the year. Strategy has now revised its expectations, projecting prices to range between $85,000 and $110,000. The forecast for BTC yields has also been revised down to 24% from a previous estimate of 30%, along with projected Bitcoin gains decreasing significantly from $20 billion to $10.6 billion at the midpoint. Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up As Bitcoin’s value continues to plummet, it further unravels Strategy’s financial outlook. Nevertheless, social media experts have pointed to a paradox within the company’s messaging. AlejandroXBT noted that while Saylor has consistently stated he will never sell Bitcoin, he has been conducting private presentations to clients outlining various strategic approaches, suggesting a potential disconnect between public declarations and private planning. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $84,880, recording major losses of over 7% in the 24-hour time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The executive chairman of bitcoin treasury firm Strategy teased a switch from orange dots to green dots in what's become his routine cheeky Sunday X post.
As British taxes have been hiked once again, the U.K.-based publication took a victory lap on bitcoin's recent struggles.
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) spent 2025 building the largest corporate Bitcoin reserve the public markets have ever financed, but the scale of that ambition ended up colliding with the logic of its own stock. What began as an aggressive accumulation strategy, powered by the company’s appetite for leverage and a willingness to dilute existing shareholders, […]
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Today’s uncertain macroeconomic climate has created an environment where corporate leaders are desperate to look innovative – Bitcoin treasuries give them a way to do that, without fixing their broken business models, says Tony Yazbeck, co-founder of The Bitcoin Way.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin (BTC), finds itself at the center of a stormy controversy involving JPMorgan as Bitcoin prices continue to struggle. With signs of a potential bear market emerging, fresh rumors suggest that one of the world’s largest banks allegedly holds a significant short position on Strategy’s stock (MSTR), which has plunged 69% from its record high of $543 per share last year. Strategy Faces Potential MSCI Exclusion The turmoil escalated last week when JPMorgan issued a warning that Strategy might soon be removed from major equity indices, specifically the MSCI USA Index. JPMorgan’s analysts noted that the issues facing Strategy extend beyond the recent downturn in cryptocurrency prices, which have seen Bitcoin fall more than 30% from its all-time highs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, while the broader crypto market has experienced a staggering $1 trillion decline in total market capitalization over the past month. Related Reading: Why XRP Price Crash Below $2 Is Not A Problem – $20 Is Still The Target JPMorgan’s analysts indicated that MSCI is considering whether companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital currencies should qualify for inclusion in traditional equity indices. Given that Strategy’s balance sheet is heavily weighted with Bitcoin, it is at significant risk of exclusion. The analysts stated that “MicroStrategy [is] at risk of exclusion from major equity indices as the January 15th MSCI decision approaches.” They speculated that removal from the MSCI could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in outflows, and if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead, the total could reach as high as $8.8 billion. The situation is complicated by market dynamics, particularly the timing of JPMorgan’s bearish note, which coincided with Bitcoin’s weakness and MSTR’s decline, all while liquidity was thin and overall sentiment fragile. JPMorgan Faces Account Closures Surge According to analysts at the Bull Theory, JPMorgan has been noted for timing its market reports—bearing down when prices are already weak and striking a more bullish tone near market peaks. The analysts have highlighted that share lending for MSTR has reportedly increased, allowing brokers to lend shares to short sellers, which can exacerbate downward pressure on the stock price. Additionally, there are escalating reports of widespread account closures at JPMorgan, with thousands claiming to have exited due to perceived manipulation of both MSTR and Bitcoin. Related Reading: A Quiet Move In Bitcoin Options Is Starting To Raise Big Questions Amid these developments, the fear of a potential short squeeze is growing. The analysts believe that if Strategy’s stock were to rally around 40% to 50%, it could trigger a short squeeze in the bank’s position and spell major financial troubles. In response, Michael Saylor, the CEO of Strategy, has sought to clarify the company’s identity, emphasizing that it is not just a passive Bitcoin holder. He pointed out that Strategy operates as a software business with an active financial strategy, countering the narrative circulating around MSCI’s concerns. As the situation unfolds, several key points emerge. The October 10th crash appeared to align with the MSCI announcement, coinciding with an already fragile market state. JP Morgan’s strategic timing of its bearish insights has amplified existing fears, creating further uncertainty as MSCI’s final decision looms. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The company's stock valuation sits near cycle lows as index exclusion chatter grows.
Investors long paid premiums for Digital Asset Treasury firms, seeing them as practical substitutes for holding Bitcoin when direct access was limited. That approach worked when regulated channels were scarce and corporate balance sheets offered the closest approximation to holding the asset itself. But according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, […]
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Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is currently navigating the most complex regime in its four-year history as a corporate Bitcoin treasury. The company, which transformed itself from a steady enterprise software provider into the world’s largest corporate holder of BTC, is facing a convergence of headwinds that threaten the structural mechanics of its valuation. For years, the […]
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JPMorgan warning on potential MSCI exclusion sparks fresh pressure, prompting another public response from the executive chairman.
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju pushed back on a renewed wave of forced Bitcoin liquidation and bankruptcy chatter around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR), arguing that the bearish thesis misreads the company’s capital structure and shareholder incentives. In a Nov. 20, 2025 post on X, Ju wrote, “MSTR only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth,” adding that critics should “bring a single piece of evidence” before claiming Michael Saylor would be liquidated. The comments came as Bitcoin and high-beta crypto proxies retraced into late November, reviving legacy narratives that Strategy’s debt stack could compel BTC sales. Why Strategy Will Never Sell Bitcoin Ju’s central claim is that Strategy is not structurally set up like a margin trader. Addressing the most common fear—that convertible notes “missing” their conversion price forces liquidation—he stated: “Convertible debt not reaching the conversion price is not liquidation. It simply means the notes get repaid in cash […] Failing to convert is not a bankruptcy trigger. It is just normal debt maturity.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Fidelity Research Lead Weighs The Odds In his view, the repayment pathways are conventional corporate finance tools: refinancing, rolling into new notes, secured borrowing, or operating cash flow. That framing aligns with how convertibles function in practice; if equity is below strike at maturity, the embedded option expires and the instrument reverts to straight debt rather than a forced-sale event. He also grounded his argument in governance and identity. “Saylor would never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders want it,” Ju wrote, warning that “selling even a single BTC would destroy MSTR’s identity as a Bitcoin treasury company and trigger a death spiral for both Bitcoin and MSTR.” Strategy has repeatedly defined itself as a BTC-treasury vehicle, and its shareholder base largely bought into that mandate, making voluntary divestment politically and strategically improbable absent a radical shift in investor preference. Balance-sheet data underpins Ju’s confidence. Strategy reported 640,808 BTC as of Oct. 30, 2025, acquired for about $47.44 billion; subsequent filings cited major November additions taking holdings to roughly 649,870 BTC. Even after accounting for the growing convertible and preferred layers, the BTC treasury remains the dominant asset, meaning solvency stress would require an extreme, prolonged Bitcoin collapse rather than a cyclical drawdown. Related Reading: Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026 Ju did not claim the equity is risk-free. “This does not mean MSTR’s stock price will always stay high,” he wrote, but called the idea that Strategy would sell BTC to support the stock or face imminent bankruptcy “completely absurd.” He added that even at a price of $10,000 per coin, Strategy would face “a debt restructuring, nothing more.” On preferred shares, he acknowledged dividend obligations, noting payments have not been missed and can be covered via new share issuance—dilutive, but not a liquidation vector. Posting BTC as collateral, he said, would be a last resort because that would introduce real margin risk. In short, Ju’s rebuttal draws a hard line between volatility and insolvency: Strategy may trade like leveraged Bitcoin, but its liabilities do not mechanically force BTC sales. The “Saylor liquidation” narrative, he argues, is a Twitter myth unless the world ends—by asteroid. At press time, BTC traded at $82,050. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has found itself significantly exposed to the ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen more than $1 trillion in total market capitalization wiped out over the past month. As the largest public holder of Bitcoin, with over 650,000 coins, the company is now facing the real threat of being removed from major benchmark indices, which have been crucial for its visibility in mainstream portfolios. Analysts Predict Major Impact On Strategy According to a recent Bloomberg report, analysts at JPMorgan Chase have issued a warning that Saylor’s firm may lose its standing in key indices such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting The analysts assert that this could result in passive outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion if MSCI proceeds with a decision expected by January 15. Passive funds connected to the company currently account for nearly $9 billion in market exposure, making any index exclusion a substantial blow. Strategy’s business model has relied on a cyclical strategy of selling stock to buy Bitcoin, capitalizing on price rallies, and repeating this process. At its zenith, Saylor’s company’s market capitalization far exceeded the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, that premium has evaporated, and the company’s valuation now aligns closely with its crypto reserves—a stark indication that investor confidence is fading rapidly. “While active managers are not bound to adhere to index changes, exclusion from major indices would undoubtedly be viewed negatively by market participants,” noted JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Such a shift could affect liquidity, increase funding costs, and diminish overall investor appeal. MSCI Contemplates New Index Inclusion Rules In its ongoing consultations with stakeholders, MSCI indicated that some market players believe digital asset treasury firms (DATs) may function more like investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion. In accordance with these perspectives, MSCI has proposed excluding companies whose holdings in digital assets constitute 50% or more of their total assets from its global investment market indexes. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Since peaking last November, Saylor’s firm has seen its shares (MSTR) decline by over 60%, causing a collapse in the premium that once attracted momentum and crypto-focused investors. Despite this slump, Saylor’s company remains up over 1,300% since he first began purchasing Bitcoin in August 2020, outperforming major equity indices throughout this period. The selloff has extended its reach into the company’s newer funding structures, as well. The prices of its perpetual preferred shares—an essential part of Saylor’s recent strategies—have seen sharp declines. Additionally, yields on securities issued in March have risen to 11.5%, up from a previous 10.5%. A recent euro-denominated preferred stock offering has already dropped below its discounted offering price in under two weeks. Michael Youngworth, head of global convertible bond strategy at Bank of America Global Research, remarked, “That premium has collapsed in recent weeks,” adding that the present situation makes capital raising increasingly challenging. Feature image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick says bitcoin’s steep decline is part of a recurring pattern, with a rebound into year-end in his base case.
Michael Saylor is explicitly telling markets that Strategy (MSTR) has been built to withstand a Bitcoin crash that would wipe out almost every other leveraged player in the ecosystem. In an interview with Grant Cardone streamed live on November 14 , the Strategy executive chairman drew a clear theoretical stress line for the company’s balance sheet and stated that even a catastrophic move lower in BTC would not force him to liquidate the core position. Strategy Can Eat A 90% Bitcoin Collapse Asked how far Bitcoin would have to fall before MicroStrategy faces real danger, Saylor answered with balance-sheet math rather than rhetoric. He pointed to roughly eight billion dollars of debt and tens of billions in equity value tied to Bitcoin, and then set the threshold: Bitcoin, he said, “would have to fall 90% from here for us to be sort of collateralized, to be one-on-one.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Indicator Sounds Buy Alarm For The First Time Since March — Return To $110K Soon? Even at that point, his first response would not be to sell BTC into a collapsing market. Instead, he described equity holders as the primary buffer. “We probably would dilute the equity, and so it would be bad for the equity,” he told Cardone, before stating the hierarchy even more bluntly: “The equity is going to be a loser.” By contrast, he framed liquidation as essentially off the table in any realistic bear market scenario. When Cardone pressed him on whether Strategy could be forced to unwind its Bitcoin position, Saylor answered flatly: “We’re not going to liquidate.” The bond side only enters the conversation in an almost total-loss scenario. “If Bitcoin fell to zero tomorrow forever, then the bonds would default,” Saylor said. He then compressed the entire risk profile into a single line: “If you think Bitcoin is going to go to $10,000, I think we’re good. If you think Bitcoin’s going to a dollar tomorrow forever, then yeah, the bonds would default.” Related Reading: How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? JPMorgan Points To A Key Threshold That framing makes the structure very clear. Equity is a highly levered, high-beta claim on Bitcoin that can be diluted if necessary. Bondholders and holders of MicroStrategy’s various credit-like instruments only face real danger if Bitcoin essentially dies as an asset class. The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead Saylor also used the interview to distance himself from one of the core narratives many Bitcoin traders still live by: the four-year halving cycle. His view is that the mechanical supply cut may have helped shape earlier phases of Bitcoin’s monetization, but it is no longer the dominant driver of price in a market now intertwined with global macro and institutional flows. “I don’t believe in four-year cycles anyway,” Saylor said. “I never believed in the— I think that they might have had some credence in the first 12 years.” He then shifted straight to scale and order of magnitude. After [the last] halving, the reduction in new supply is on the order of a couple hundred BTC a day. In his translation, “225 Bitcoin a day get taken out of the supply after the next halving, that’s twenty million dollars or twenty-two million dollars of buying.” Against a spot and derivatives complex that can see tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in notional volume in a single session, that number, he argued, is marginal. “Trust me, twenty million dollars of buying… is not even a third-order issue at this point,” he said. What matters now? “The dynamics in the market are much more that Jerome Powell thinks he wants to hold interest rates higher for longer. It’s macroeconomics. It’s political. It’s structural. When IBIT’s derivatives market went from $10 billion to $50 billion, it did that in four weeks. […] It’s the actions of the mega finance actors that are determining the future of Bitcoin right now, Saylor said. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $95,624. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s latest downturn has caused considerable speculation about whether Strategy’s (formerly known as MicroStrategy) massive holdings are playing a role in the market’s weakness. The concerns escalated sharply when wallet-monitoring platforms flagged large Bitcoin transfers linked to the company, sparking widespread claims that a major sell-off had begun. The conversation gained even more traction when a widely circulated report alleged that Strategy had slashed its Bitcoin holdings by tens of thousands of tokens. Michael Saylor moved quickly to address the rumor, but the back-and-forth between on-chain interpretations and official statements raises questions of what is really happening behind the scenes. Related Reading: XRP Earns Academic Praise: University Study Calls It ‘Gold In Your Hands’ How Wallet Movements Turned Into Full-Blown Sell-Off Rumors The controversy started when Walter Bloomberg shared a post citing Arkham Intelligence and claiming Strategy had reduced its Bitcoin stash from 484,000 BTC to roughly 437,000 BTC. The alleged drop of about 47,000 BTC immediately led to questions as to whether the company had quietly begun liquidating. Saylor responded directly beneath the post, stating, “There is no truth to this rumor,” dismissing the claim outright. There is no truth to this rumor. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 14, 2025 As the situation spread across social platforms, Arkham Intelligence later clarified what actually happened. In a post on X, the firm explained that Strategy had moved 43,415 BTC since midnight UTC, worth over $4.2 billion, but also noted that the activity consisted of routine custodian rotations. According to Arkham, the transfers were due to movement from Coinbase Custody to a new custodian, along with internal rebalancing and wallet refresh processes. None of the movements indicated sales and that Strategy frequently performs these custodial transitions. Anyone tracking these wallet clusters over the past two weeks would have seen similar flows, eventually followed by relabeling once new addresses were established. Saylor’s Public Reassurance And Continued Bitcoin Accumulation In response to the swirling speculation, Saylor took a definitive stance to calm markets. While speaking at an interview on CNBC, Saylor addressed the controversy, stating that Strategy had not sold any Bitcoin and had no plans to do so. His remarks left no ambiguity as he said, “We are buying; we’ll report our next buys on Monday morning.” He went further to describe the company’s financial position and long-term confidence, noting that the firm has put in a very strong base around here with its Bitcoin holdings. Saylor also highlighted that Strategy’s debt structure does not impose immediate obligations, saying the debt is still “4.5 years out.” This means there is currently no financial pressure that would require liquidation of Bitcoin. Related Reading: Crypto ‘Pig-Butchering’ Scam Escalating Into A National Security Risk— Study Shortly after the interview, he reinforced his message on X, stating plainly, “We bought bitcoin every day this week,” which directly contradicts any claims of ongoing sell pressure from Strategy. In terms of price action, Bitcoin has spent most of this week on a downtrend, which now puts its price trading below $100,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,084. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Alongside bitcoin's tumble back to $98,000, MSTR is lower by another 6.6% on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date decline to 30%.
In this week’s Crypto Long & Short Newsletter, Abdul Rafay Gadit writes about how DATCO’s are reshaping corporate finance. Then, we take a look back at crypto rates and a look ahead at signs of strength as the country emerges from the government shutdown, with Andy Baehr’s “Vibe Check.
Michael Saylor and team purchased 487 bitcoin over the past few days, bringing company holdings to 641,692 coins.
Renowned short seller James Chanos has officially closed his $MSTR/Bitcoin hedged trade after 11 months, marking an end to his high-profile bet against Bitcoin-linked equities and Strategy stock. The unwinding of institutional short positions is a trend reversal indicator that could mean the worst for Bitcoin treasury companies is behind them. The bitcoin treasury ecosystem […]
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Dubbed "stream," STRE is the company's latest preferred series as Michael Saylor and team begin raising funds overseas for more bitcoin purchases.
With the perpetual preferred share STRC now trading at par, Strategy may unlock a new path to acquire bitcoin through its at-the-market program.
After years of relentless buying, Strategy Inc., the digital-asset treasury firm led by Michael Saylor, has quietly eased its pace of Bitcoin accumulation. In recent weeks, company filings have shown that its BTC purchases have fallen to only a few hundred coins, representing a sharp slowdown for the largest corporate holder of the flagship cryptocurrency. […]
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Less than a week after hinting at an international perpetual preferred listing, Strategy unveils its 10% euro-based Stream issue targeting institutional investors.
Michael Saylor sent a short, cryptic message on X on November 2, 2025: “Orange is the color of November.” The post included a chart tied to Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) Bitcoin tracker. Reports have disclosed that crypto outlets and market watchers quickly read the line as a hint at another corporate Bitcoin buy. Related Reading: Forget Billions—XRP Could Hit Trillions, Leading Expert Says Bitcoin Buy: Orange Dot Signals According To screenshots and media coverage, the post echoed past Saylor posts that used orange imagery to flag Bitcoin moves. Some outlets called it a tease for a 13th straight purchase by Strategy. That description comes from reporters tracking the firm’s buying pattern, not from an official Strategy statement. The tweet did not lay out timing or dollar amounts. Strategy Holdings And Recent Buys Based on reports and filings summarized in market coverage, Strategy currently holds roughly 640,808 BTC, with an average cost basis near $74,302 per coin. The company’s last disclosed acquisition was about 390 BTC, which market trackers put at roughly $43 million. Those figures come from public disclosures and tracking services that follow corporate treasury buys. Orange is the color of November. pic.twitter.com/M3JoIuDpRk — Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 2, 2025 Market Reactions And Risks Traders reacted fast. Some buyers pushed prices higher on the idea that another corporate buyer was about to enter the market. Others sold into the noise, treating the tweet as a signal that might not immediately lead to a trade. Headlines linking the post to other big political or economic events—such as reporting on US President Donald Trump—appeared in a few outlets, but analysts say such connections are speculative unless tied to filings or on-chain moves. Why Watch For Filings Based on past practice, Strategy tends to file disclosures after completing purchases. That pattern makes regulatory filings and on-chain addresses worth watching for anyone tracking actual flows. If a fresh 8-K appears or a wallet tied to the company posts movement, that will turn rumor into confirmed action. Until then, the market runs on interpretation and expectation. What This Means For Investors For holders, corporate accumulation often serves as a sentiment boost. For short-term traders, it raises volatility. Institutional watchers will be looking not only for more purchases but also for any change in scale. The company’s large stake—hundreds of thousands of BTC at a multi-thousand dollar average—means that public buys or sales have the power to move sentiment. Related Reading: XRP’s Next Earthquake: Billions Set To Flow In, ‘Supply Shock’ Coming—Analyst What To Watch Next Based on reports, the clearest signs to watch are regulatory filings, updates from Strategy itself, and on-chain transfers tied to known company addresses. Market data providers who tracked the last 390 BTC purchase will likely flag any new movement quickly. Until those items appear, the tweet remains a strong hint but not proof of an imminent large purchase. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
For most of 2025, Bitcoin’s floor looked unshakable, supported by an unlikely alliance of corporate treasuries and exchange-traded funds. Companies issued stock and convertible debt to buy the token, while ETF inflows quietly soaked up new supply. Together, they created a durable demand base that helped Bitcoin defy tightening financial conditions. Now, that foundation is […]
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The firm mostly funded the fresh buys with sales of common stock.
Strategy posts record profits and strengthens balance sheet as it eyes S&P 500 inclusion.