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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has explained why the Bitcoin price has shown strength amid the US-Iran war, with the leading crypto rallying above $75,000. BTC is notably up over 12% since the war started, outperforming the stock market and gold.  Why The Bitcoin Price Has Rallied Above $75,000 Despite U.S.-Iran War In his weekly Bitwise memo, Hougan stated that the Bitcoin price strength during the US-Iran war stems from the conflict itself. He explained that BTC has outperformed gold and the stock market because investors are betting on either of the crypto’s two major use cases or narratives. The first narrative is that Bitcoin will become “digital gold” and so will be able to compete with physical gold in the $38 trillion “store of value” market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again He noted that this is BTC’s current use case, and this narrative may be why the Bitcoin price has rallied amid the US-Iran war as investors see it as a safe haven rather than a risk asset. The Bitwise CIO described this bet on BTC as digital gold as very attractive and predicted that the leading crypto could reach $1 million if it captures 17% of the store-of-value market.  Meanwhile, Hougan stated that the second bet on BTC is the belief that it might act like a traditional currency, suggesting that this is another reason that it is outperforming during this ongoing conflict. He noted that this second bet is like an “out-of-the-money call option” where it pays off if BTC is used more widely for international settlement.  The Bitwise CIO stated that for most of Bitcoin’s life, it seemed unlikely that it would become a global currency, as until a few years ago, the world relied exclusively on dollar-based financial rails. However, that is now changing. He alluded to Iran receiving BTC for toll payments at the Strait of Hormuz, which has boosted the crypto’s status as a currency and contributed to the Bitcoin price rally.  World Monetary Order Is Flipping In BTC’s Favor The Bitwise CIO noted that the US-Iran war has made the world monetary order more volatile, but has also increased the probability that Bitcoin will become a global currency. As such, the war has made BTC a more valuable out-of-the-money call option, which is why the Bitcoin price has shown strength during this period.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Successfully Shorted The Bitcoin Price Top Announces A Change In His Plan Hougan added that with Iran’s move to accept BTC payments, the world has taken a step closer to integrating an apolitical currency into the global financial ecosystem. Therefore, whenever conflicts like the US-Iran war occur, the incentive to invest in apolitical assets like BTC increases, which serves as a catalyst for a higher Bitcoin price.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

More than 87% of Argentinians surveyed in a January Coinbase poll said they view crypto and blockchain technology as a way to strengthen their financial independence — a sign that the role of Bitcoin in the global economy may already be shifting well beyond what markets have priced in. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Bitcoin’s Dual Role Draws New Attention Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, made that case publicly this week. He said Bitcoin could one day command a total addressable market larger than gold’s $34 trillion valuation — but only if it manages to function both as a store of value and as an actual working currency. That’s a bigger claim than what Bitcoin bulls have traditionally made. For years, the comparison to gold was the headline argument. Now, a war is adding a new layer to that conversation. https://t.co/jxIcOn1e23 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) April 14, 2026 Iran has proposed allowing ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay a toll in crypto. The plan, reported in recent days amid escalating conflict with the United States, is being watched closely by Bitcoin investors. To Hougan, it points to something larger. In a world where countries have turned financial systems into weapons, he wrote on social media, Bitcoin is emerging as an option that no single government controls. A $1 Million Price Target — And Possibly Higher Hougan previously put a number on his store-of-value thesis: if Bitcoin captures 17% of that market over the next decade, each coin could be worth $1 million. Based on his latest comments, that figure may need to be revised upward if Bitcoin begins functioning like a currency alongside its role as a savings vehicle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $74,150, with a total market cap of roughly $1.4 trillion. Gold, by comparison, sits at $4,854 per ounce, with an estimated market cap exceeding $33 trillion. Corporate treasuries have also been buying in. Data shows private and public companies collectively hold more than 1.5 million Bitcoin, valued at over $116 billion. Merchant Adoption Remains A Work In Progress Still, the currency side of the equation has ground to cover. A study by academic publisher Springer Nature found roughly 11,000 merchants worldwide currently accept Bitcoin as payment — a relatively modest number for an asset of its size. Related Reading: Dollar’s Shrinking Value Adds Fuel To XRP Bull Case: Finance Expert Adoption has been strongest in countries where local currencies have collapsed. Citizens in Turkey and Venezuela, like those in Argentina, have turned to Bitcoin to protect savings against persistent inflation. Whether Iran’s crypto toll proposal signals a turning point for Bitcoin as an international currency — or simply reflects one sanctioned nation finding a workaround — remains to be seen. What’s clear is that Bitwise believes the story is bigger than gold alone. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Circle stock, CRCL, experienced a significant decline over the past day following news of a proposed ban on stablecoin yield. Despite this selloff, Bitwise’s CIO maintains that the market reaction was excessive and projects that the company’s valuation will likely double by 2030. Related Reading: Cardano Price At Multi-Year Support That Previously Led To 200% Rally – ADA Recovery Ahead? Circle Selloff Was ‘Overblown’ – Bitwise CIO On Tuesday, Circle Internet Financial, the issuer behind the USDC stablecoin, saw its stock crash 22% to $98 following reports about lawmakers’ decision on the stablecoin yield dispute. CRCL’s selloff was driven by news that a revised draft of the Senate Banking Committee’s crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, would prohibit platforms from offering yield, directly or indirectly, for holding a stablecoin, or in a manner that resembles a bank deposit. Despite the selloff, some market experts have made the case for Circle, highlighting it as a good opportunity and “the most obvious choice” to invest in the stablecoins sector. In his weekly memo, Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, called the market’s reaction “overblown.” He asserted that the latest draft of the CLARITY Act doesn’t alter the base case forecast for Circle. Interest income has not been a primary driver of stablecoin growth to date; the vast majority of stablecoins today are held in ways that don’t pay interest. Stablecoins have exploded in popularity because they let people move money anywhere in the world efficiently and reliably—for trade settlement, as collateral in lending, as an alternative to unstable national currencies, and more. Hougan also emphasized that stablecoins offer convenience, which is “the killer app for money,” pointing out that the average savings account and average checking account yield 0.60% and 0.07%, respectively. “People aren’t parking their money there for the yield,” he noted, adding that as the global financial system increasingly transitions to blockchain-based rails, stablecoins are expected to assume a more significant role in this shift, irrespective of whether they offer interest. The Case For Circle’s $75B Valuation Diving deeper into his outlook for Circle, Hougan shared key projections for the broader stablecoin sector’s market capitalization and the company’s potential market share in the coming years. Citing Citigroup’s report, he asserted that the “base case” for stablecoin‘s assets under management (AUM)  projects it will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, while a “bull case” estimates it at $4 trillion. Bitwise’s CIO also highlighted that Circle’s USDC, the second-largest dollar-pegged token, holds 25% of the overall stablecoin market share, only behind Tether’s USDT, but has a much larger share of the regulated stablecoin market, with an estimated 80%+ share. If you think much of the growth of stablecoin AUM will come from those markets (as banks, fintechs, and major enterprises opt for onshore, regulated stablecoins), you might expect Circle’s market share to increase well beyond its current 25% share. Lastly, he addressed what Circle could potentially earn on deposits in four years. As he explained, the company earns roughly 4% interest on $80 billion of its AUM backing USDC, but shares around 60% with distribution partners like Coinbase, netting a 1.6% take rate. Related Reading: Ethereum Tops $2,100 As BitMine Ramps Up ETH Bet With $137M Purchase While its sustainability hinges on interest rates and competition from rival stablecoins, Hougan projected that the take rate will be cut in half by 2030, to 0.8%. Using these “conservative assumptions” on the broader stablecoins market cap, the company’s market share, and margin, Bitwise’s CIO concluded that Circle could hit “$75 billion by 2030—even with the recent CLARITY Act concerns.” Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Hougan says bitcoin could reach that milestone if it captures a larger share of the global store-of-value market, though analysts say it would likely take years of institutional adoption and macro shifts.

Experts push back on billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio's warning of bitcoin lacking gold’s qualities and risks from surveillance, quantum computing and lack of central bank buying.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the recent Bitcoin dip is being read very differently inside institutional circles than it is on crypto social media. In a March 2 interview with Scott Melker, Hougan said many professional allocators that missed the first leg of ETF-driven adoption are now treating lower prices as an opening, not a warning sign. Bitcoin Dip Draws Rush From Institutional Buyers The clearest example was a prospective client Hougan said had been in discussions with Bitwise for roughly two years before finally committing $11 million. For Hougan, that was less a story about sudden conviction than about how institutions actually move. “The average Bitwise client takes eight meetings before they allocate, which is brutal. But they meet quarterly. We’re about two years into the ETF boom. So they’re just now getting ready to allocate.” Bitcoin Insider Reveals Why Institutions Are Scrambling To Buy The Dip! | @Matt_Hougan pic.twitter.com/KUKndfw0mP — The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) March 2, 2026 That lag, he argued, is being mistaken for hesitation when it is often just an institutional process. “They’re not surprised that crypto is volatile,” Hougan said. “Like, wow, crypto is volatile, right? They’ve been waiting for an entry point.” He highlighted that spot ETFs saw net inflows during sharp down weeks, which he took as evidence that institutions remain “the marginal buyer” and are likely to keep entering the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge Hougan drew a distinction between crypto-native sentiment and the way wealth managers, RIAs and larger institutions frame the asset. Retail, he said, has slipped into a full bear-market mindset, pointing to the crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 5. But institutions are operating on a different clock. “These people are making allocations for the next five or 10 years,” he said. “Even if you talk to the most bearish, despairing person on crypto Twitter and you ask them where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, they’re going to be pretty bullish.” That helps explain why falling prices are not necessarily slowing adoption. In many cases, Hougan said, advisors first buy Bitcoin personally, hold it for about a year, then begin allocating to a small group of clients before scaling up. “Typically what they do is they take their first 10 clients who have been asking them relentlessly about crypto for the last 10 years and they allocate on their behalf,” he said. “The big game comes when they go from 10 to 100.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says The distribution channels are also opening wider. Hougan said that, as of Q4, three of the four major wire houses can now proactively discuss Bitcoin with clients, while the fourth is expected to follow. Still, he estimated that roughly 20% to 25% of wealth managers remain closed to crypto exposure, underscoring that institutional access is still being rolled out rather than fully saturated. For Hougan, that is why the market may be underestimating what comes next. “Eventually Bitcoin ETFs, I think, will at some point have a trillion dollars of assets in them,” he said. “They’re not going to go down from here. It just takes time.” He was equally emphatic that this cycle feels different from prior drawdowns. “In previous bear markets, in FTX, the bear market felt existential,” Hougan said. “This winter doesn’t feel like that. Most people look at this as an attractive entry point. They don’t see death and despair. They see the world getting more digital, they see rising concern about fiat currency, they see a four-year cycle that would naturally mean we have a pullback.” If that view holds, the current drawdown may matter less as a test of conviction than as a transfer point: from fast-moving retail traders to slower, deeper pools of capital that are still early in their allocation process. At press time, BTC traded at $66,360. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released a new analysis of the current state of the crypto market, arguing that the industry has been firmly entrenched in a bear market for over a year.  In a report shared on social media, Hougan stated that his research indicates the current downturn began as early as January 2025, despite widespread optimism fueled by institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to new all-time highs. Deep Bear Market Driving Crypto?  Posting on X, formerly Twitter, Hougan pushed back against the idea that recent price weakness represents a routine pullback or short‑term dip. Instead, he described the current environment as a full‑scale crypto winter comparable to past downturns in 2018 and 2022.  Interestingly, Hougan said the crypto market currently resembles a “2022‑like, Leonardo‑DiCaprio‑in‑The‑Revenant‑style” winter, driven by excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit‑taking by long‑time crypto holders. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Hougan addressed a question many investors have been asking: why prices continue to fall despite a steady stream of positive developments.  He pointed to expanding institutional involvement, improving regulation, and broader adoption as clear long‑term positives, but said none of that typically matters during the deepest phase of a bear market.  According to Hougan, crypto winters are periods when good news is largely ignored, regardless of its significance. Even developments such as Wall Street firms hiring aggressively or major banks like Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto exposure are unlikely to spark a rally in the short term. He also cited market sentiment indicators to support his view. Hougan noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, even as the newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is publicly supportive of Bitcoin.  To him, this disconnect underscores how deeply negative sentiment has become. Drawing on past cycles, Hougan said crypto winters rarely end with renewed excitement or optimism. Instead, they typically conclude when investors are exhausted and disengaged. ETF Support Propped Up Bitcoin?  Looking to history, Hougan observed that previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming a year later, and again peaked in October 2021 before hitting its low point in November 2022.  By that measure, the current cycle might suggest more pain ahead, particularly since Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025. However, Hougan argued that focusing solely on that date misses a critical detail. In his view, the current winter actually began in January 2025 but was partially hidden by extraordinary institutional inflows. He said strong demand from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked underlying weakness across much of the crypto market. Hougan emphasized the scale of institutional support for Bitcoin in particular, calling it unprecedented. During the period he analyzed, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased more than 744,000 BTC, representing roughly $75 billion in buying pressure. He suggested that without this support, BTC’s price could have fallen by as much as 60%.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Despite this, Bitwise CIO suggested several possible catalysts that could help lift sentiment and mark the beginning of a crypto recovery, including strong global economic growth that reignites risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time.  Reflecting on his experience through multiple crypto market cycles, he said the current mood of despair, fatigue, and malaise closely resembles the final stages of past crypto winters. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said he thinks Solana could plausibly become a trillion-dollar asset within five years—an outcome that would roughly translate into a ~$1,600 SOL price on a simple market-cap-per-token basis, depending on circulating supply. Hougan made the remarks on the Jan. 29 episode of When Shift Happens, framing his Solana view through what he called a “two ways to win” setup: growth in the addressable market (stablecoins and tokenized assets), plus an increasing share captured by Solana versus competing networks. Why Solana Could Hit $1,600+ Within 5 Years Hougan argued that the “infrastructure market” for stablecoins and tokenization is expanding quickly enough that large, liquid L1s should be valued less like niche crypto experiments and more like enabling rails for traditional finance. “The US Secretary of Treasury expects the stablecoin market to 12x over the next four years,” he said, adding that Larry Fink has described a future where “every asset, every fund, ETF, stock, bond, real estate will be tokenized.” From there, his Solana thesis leaned heavily on relative positioning. Ethereum remains the incumbent in stablecoins and tokenization, Hougan said, but Solana is “a legit competitor with an interesting technological differentiation,” and crucially “it’s extraordinarily easy to use and the community has a ship first attitude.” Related Reading: Solana Scores Major Institutional Adoption As WisdomTree Goes On-Chain That usability point, in his view, is underpriced by investors who focus on benchmark-style comparisons. “I think ease of use is a killer app that’s underrated by investors,” Hougan said. “Investors like to talk about throughput and they like to talk… TPS… who cares about this? …For an end user who’s trading, who’s on-ramping, ease of use is the killer app. And Solana is just easy to use, just dead easy to use.” Hougan also acknowledged a common investor blind spot: token supply dynamics can separate price action from market cap growth. He noted that Solana’s market value can rise meaningfully even if the token price revisits prior highs, and suggested staking yield partially offsets dilution, citing “roughly like 7% a year.” Another thread in the discussion was how regulation shaped institutional behavior. Hougan said Solana’s footprint in stablecoins and tokenization was constrained during the prior US regulatory environment, arguing that institutions “couldn’t build on Solana” if they believed it sat “outside of the regulatory perimeter.” With that cloud lifting, he said, mandates are starting to broaden. He also described why the ETF wrapper matters more for a smaller asset. “You put a little bit of inflows into an ETF package and they’re chasing a relatively small supply of Solana,” Hougan said. “It’s one of the best setups for an asset that I’ve ever seen because you have this small constrained size, you have significant institutional demand, you have stablecoins and tokenization… you put all that together and it seems like a winner.” Still, he avoided hard price targets and instead stayed in market-cap terms. “In 5 years I think it could be a trillion dollar asset. I think that’s relatively easy to imagine,” he said. “It’s hard to give a precise target because it depends on the pace of growth on stablecoins and tokenization. It depends on whether Congress passes the Clarity Act. It depends on the sort of crypto market cycles.” E156: @Matt_Hougan from @BitwiseInvest – $6.5M Bitcoin and the strongest Solana setup ever? This might be the most bullish yet rational episode we’ve done on the future of crypto: why debasement, institutional flows & tokenization are just getting started. Timestamps: 0:00… pic.twitter.com/WMqvKL7pCj — MR SHIFT ???? (@KevinWSHPod) January 29, 2026 On simple market-cap math, a $1 trillion Solana valuation implies a four-figure token price depending on supply. The relationship is straightforward: token price equals market cap divided by supply. Using Solana’s circulating supply of roughly 566 million SOL, a $1 trillion market cap works out to about $1,766 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 566,000,000). Related Reading: Solana Pauses After 20% Drop — This Key Level Could Decide What’s Next If you instead use a fully diluted-style denominator closer to 619 million SOL, the same $1 trillion market cap implies roughly $1,615 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 619,000,000). In other words, Hougan’s “trillion-dollar asset” framing maps to something like the mid-$1,000s per token on today’s supply assumptions, with the exact number moving as supply changes. Notably, Hougan’s Solana call sat alongside a broader macro narrative he returned to repeatedly: monetary debasement pushing investors toward scarce and non-sovereign stores of value. On Bitcoin, he argued the “two ways to win” are the store-of-value market expanding and Bitcoin taking share from gold, an arc he said could drive multi-million-dollar BTC over decades if the last 10–15 years of adoption trends persist. For Solana, the equivalent is less about being “digital gold” and more about becoming a primary venue for stablecoin flows and tokenized securities. If those rails scale and if Solana continues gaining share as a high-velocity, institution-friendly network, Hougan’s trillion-dollar scenario implies the market is still pricing the opportunity too conservatively. At press time, SOL traded at $115.40. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 this week, a level it had not touched in seven months, according to data. Traders watched nervously as the flagship token moved around $90,700, leaving it roughly 25% beneath its recent all-time high of just over $126,000 reached on Oct. 6. Markets noted that a big liquidation event on Oct. 10 still echoes through trading desks. Related Reading: From Dotcom To Crypto: Veteran Analyst Says The Bull Run Isn’t Over Analysts See A Near-Term Bottom According to an interview on CNBC, BitMine chairman Tom Lee said the Oct. 10 liquidations and ongoing uncertainty about whether the US Federal Reserve will cut rates in December have kept pressure on crypto. He described signs of exhaustion among sellers and cited technical work suggesting a bottom could appear soon. Tom Lee and Matt Hougan both say crypto prices are getting close to forming a bottom. Source: YouTube Bitwise Asset Management chief investment officer Matt Hougan shared a similar line of thinking, calling current pricing a “generational opportunity” and urging longer-term investors to take notice. He added that traders are jittery about the economy, high AI valuations, and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which may have added to selling. Selling Fueled Mostly By Short-Term Holders According To XWIN Research, a review of on-chain measures showed short-term holders did much of the heavy lifting in the recent decline. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio fell below 1 on multiple occasions, which signals many short-term owners sold at a loss. XWIN also said coins younger than three months made up most of the spent volume during the worst of the drop. That pattern points to panic-driven exits by recent buyers rather than mass, late-cycle distribution by longtime holders. At the same time, metrics such as Coin Days Destroyed, Realized Profit, and Long-Term Holder Net Position Change registered increased distribution by long-term holders since September, but XWIN argued this behavior matches routine profit-taking during a bull run rather than blow-off top selling. Flow From ETFs And Whales Adds Pressure Reports have disclosed that exchange-traded fund outflows and large sales by whales also contributed to the weakness, while rising geopolitical tensions added a further layer of risk. Market participants described Bitcoin as an early mover that started to weaken before other risk assets, which some investors took as a warning signal for broader markets. Related Reading: Crypto Carnage Continues — Tom Lee Exposes What’s Really Going On Outlook Hinges On Stocks And Policy Lee expects a rebound if equities rally later this year, saying a stronger stock market would likely lift Bitcoin back to fresh highs before year-end. Hougan agreed that a recovery could come quickly and that the current window offers an attractive entry for investors planning to hold for 12 months or more. Yet traders remain split; a few see the recent data as clear exhaustion, while others warn macro events and policy decisions could push prices lower before confidence returns. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The crypto market looks beaten down again, but one veteran investor says that may be the exact signal to stay calm. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Grip Holds — But Signs Of Weakness Are Piling Up: Analyst Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin’s deep sell-off — now dragging prices below $102,000 for the first time since the last five months — is more about panic than fundamentals. Retail Sentiment At ‘Max Desperation’ Hougan told CNBC this week that small traders are hitting a breaking point. “It’s almost a tale of two markets,” he said, describing what he sees as “max desperation” among retail investors after months of heavy losses and leverage blowouts. He called the mood the most depressed he’s ever witnessed in crypto. For him, that level of hopelessness might be the final stage before the market finds its footing again. Institutional Flows Continue To Matter While smaller traders are backing off, larger investors appear to be sticking around. According to reports, financial advisors and institutional funds are still adding to positions through Bitcoin ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The weekly inflows have slowed since the middle of the year, but they remain positive — a sign, Hougan says, that big money hasn’t lost faith. Hougan argues that this split between retail panic and institutional confidence could shape how the market recovers. “When I talk to advisors and institutions,” he said, “they’re still excited to allocate to an asset class that, if you zoom out, is delivering strong returns over the past year.” Solana Staking Interest And ETF Activity The growing influence of crypto funds goes beyond Bitcoin. Hougan said Bitwise’s new Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) pulled in more than $400 million in its first week before dropping nearly 20% since launching on Oct. 28. Even so, he sees strong appetite for professionally managed crypto exposure among investors who prefer structured products over direct trading. Related Reading: ‘Good News’ Finally Arrives For SHIB Army As Team Unveils New Update Not everyone agrees on how fast a rebound might come. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor recently predicted Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by year end — a call Hougan considers bold but not impossible. He said a move toward $125,000 or even $130,000 is achievable if selling pressure keeps fading and demand from institutions grows. For now, the market still feels fragile. Hougan admits there could be more downside before prices turn around, but he thinks the end of the sell-off is close. Retail sentiment may be collapsing, yet institutional optimism is holding firm — and that, he says, could be the fuel for Bitcoin’s next rally. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is now applying his long-standing Bitcoin framework to Solana — and he’s calling the setup “explosive.” In an October 29 memo, Hougan says the best trades in crypto are the ones where you get “two ways to win” with one position. For Bitcoin, he defines those two bets as: “1) The global ‘store of value’ market will grow. 2) Bitcoin will take an increasing share of that market.” He says only one of those outcomes has to be true for Bitcoin to work. Hougan sizes that “store of value” market at roughly $27.5 trillion today, including about $25 trillion in gold and $2.5 trillion in Bitcoin. He argues investors focus too much on Bitcoin replacing gold and not enough on the overall market itself expanding. Related Reading: Solana Eyes $210 Before Its Next Major Move—Uptrend Or Fakeout Ahead? He notes that this market has already grown by roughly 10x in the last 20 years, from under $3 trillion in 2005 to $27.5 trillion today. In his view, if that repeats, Bitcoin can 10x without needing to fully displace gold. If, on top of that, Bitcoin also closes the gap with gold and ends up with half of the total store-of-value market, “every bitcoin would be worth $6.5 million.” He adds, “I’m not saying that will happen,” but he uses the math to show how powerful the dual-bet structure can be. Solana’s Dual Growth Could Mirror Bitcoin Hougan now argues Solana fits the same model. “When I invest in Solana, I am also making two bets at once,” he writes. Those two bets are: “1) The stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure market will grow. 2) Solana will win an increasing share of that market.” He defines that market as the set of blockchains that power stablecoin payments and asset tokenization today. He names Ethereum as “the market leader,” and lists Tron, Solana, and Binance Smart Chain as major challengers in stablecoins. Together, he says, those networks represent $768 billion in market value. Solana’s share of that is $107 billion, or roughly 14%. For Hougan, that is the opening. He says he has “a lot of confidence that the stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure market will grow,” and argues most people “significantly underestimate how much these technologies will remake markets.” His long-run claim is blunt: “Over time, I suspect nearly all payments will be in stablecoins and nearly all assets will be tokenized.” If that plays out, “the blockchains that facilitate this growth will be extremely valuable.” He calls it “easy to imagine this market growing by 10x or more.” Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Predicts Solana Staking ETF Will Be ‘Huge’ As First Day Volume Hits $56M The second part, in his view, is Solana’s ability to capture more of that expansion. He calls Solana “fast” and “user-friendly,” backed by a community with a “ship-fast attitude.” He also notes that Solana is still “playing catch-up” in winning institutional mandates, but says that is starting to change. As an example, he cites Western Union’s announced stablecoin effort this week, and points out that Western Union chose Solana as the underlying blockchain. Hougan’s argument is that if the overall market for stablecoin settlement and tokenized assets 10xes, and Solana grows its share of that market from 14%, the result is not linear — it compounds. “If I’m right,” he writes, “the combination of a growing market and a growing share of that market will be explosive for Solana. Just as with bitcoin.” He closes with a note on positioning. Crypto, he says, rewards humility because “even the most seasoned experts don’t know exactly how things will play out.” But he says you can still tilt odds in your favor by owning assets that embed two high-conviction bets at once. In his view, Bitcoin already fits that profile. Solana now does too. At press time, SOL traded at $186. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Following the recent launch of multiple crypto ETFs, Bitwise Asset Manager’s CIO has forecasted a bright future for the firm’s Solana Staking Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), as investors show strong initial interest in the investment product. Related Reading: November Preview: Will Bitcoin Break The Cycle Or Repeat It? Bitwise Solana Staking ETF Sees Strong Start On Tuesday, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted that the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) could attract significant institutional interest and become one of the leading investment products based on digital assets. Hougan argued that Solana is “one of the most exciting crypto investment opportunities that exists today,” as it records “the most revenue of any blockchain.” He explained that institutional investors “love” both ETFs and revenue, which suggests that these investors will “love Solana ETFs.” Bitwise’s CIO previously pointed out that there must be fundamental reasons for investors’ interest in investment vehicles such as ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), signaling that Solana has them. Therefore, he has “a feeling the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, BSOL, is gonna be huge.” Ahead of the launch, ETF Expert Eric Balchunas predicted that the first day volume for Bitwise’s Solana ETF could surpass the $50 million mark. Notably, the firm’s spot Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and spot Ethereum ETH (ETHW) recorded $237.9 million and $204 million on their first day, respectively. Hougan has highlighted that Solana’s market capitalization is 1/20th the size of BTC and less than 1/4th the size of ETH. Based on this, the volume for an SOL ETF is expected to be smaller than that of ETFs based on the two leading crypto assets. According to data shared by Balchunas, BSOL recorded an impressive volume of $10 million in the first 30 minutes of trading, hinting at initial demand. This amount surged to approximately $33 million by the half-day mark and hit $56 million by the end of its first trading day. According to the analyst, BSOL had a strong start, noting that its “$56m is the MOST of any launch this year.. More than XRPR, SSK, Ives and BMNU.” Crypto ETFs Launch Amid Government Shutdown BSOL was among the crypto ETFs launched on October 28 despite the US government shutdown. As reported by NewsBTC, Bitwise, for its Solana Staking ETF, and Canary Capital, for its spot Litecoin (LTC) and Hedera (HBAR) ETFs, filed 8-A forms on Monday to launch the investment products this week despite the government shutdown. Notably, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was set to approve over a dozen altcoin ETFs between October and November after delaying the decision deadline and releasing new generic listing standards for the products. Related Reading: Bitcoin Obsession Costs Saylor — S&P Tags Strategy As ‘Junk’ However, investors expected that the long-awaited green light would be delayed until the end of the government shutdown. Journalist Eleanor Terret explained that the launch was possible because an open government isn’t required and the 8-A filings are “just as important” as the S-1 forms, as they formally register ETF shares under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. As a result, after the NYSE certified all the filings for the ETFs, they could start trading on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL) will convert into an ETF on Wednesday. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Remi has made his bull run predictions for coins like XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Despite the price targets being ambitious, the analyst described them as “semi-conservative,” suggesting the coins could rally much higher.  XRP And Solana To $1,000, And Cardano To $100 In an X post, Remi predicted that XRP and Solana will rally above $1,000 while Cardano will reach $100. He stated that these price targets are based on information, research, and historical performance. The analyst also made predictions for HBAR, XLM, ONDO, LINK, XDC, and QNT, all of which he expects to record astronomical gains.  Related Reading: Technical Analysis Suggests XRP’s Playbook From 2017 Could Repeat In 2025 Interestingly, the analyst stated that these were semi-conservative targets for XRP, Solana, and Cardano and that he personally thinks they could rally higher. He added that these targets might not even come close to his expectations and that they are simply based on utility and a super cycle without any black swan events.  Remi also advised investors not to make the same mistake he made during his first bull run by leaving profits on the table in hopes that coins like XRP, Solana, and Cardano will go higher. He told them not to be greedy and take profits at different intervals. The analyst added that they should not wait for the high numbers because they might not happen for various reasons.  Furthermore, the crypto analyst advised investors on custody, urging them to secure their XRP, Solana, and Cardano in a cold wallet. He explained that crypto exchanges are “in it to win it” and are not here for the customers. Meanwhile, the analyst didn’t mention what utility could spark these runs for these coins.  However, it is worth noting that XRP, Solana, and Cardano are all set to have their spot ETFs, although it remains to be seen how high these coins could reach on the back of these institutional inflows.  Why the Price Targets Are Not “Crazy” Remi admitted that the price targets for XRP, Solana, and Cardano may seem crazy, but assured that they are not. He explained that the market cycle is now 5 years instead of 4, indicating that “huge numbers are coming.” He noted that these big numbers will coincide with the voting season.  Related Reading: Solana Price At Risk Of 50% Crash To $104 After Forming This Larger Bearish Trend This is why he thinks there will be a super cycle that runs into the fourth quarter of next year. He told XRP, Solana, and Cardano holders to be mindful of the winter Olympics next year, in February, warning that any major attack during the event would disrupt the cycle. As such, he remarked that it may be wise to take a little profit early on before the event. Notably, experts like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan have also stated that the four-year cycle is likely over, predicting that the bull run could extend. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, posted a brief, bullish note on social media on Oct 6, 2025, writing “$1 trillion inbound….” Related Reading: All Eyes On Solana: $15-B Stablecoin Supply, ETF Demand Drive Next Leg Up Based on reports, that short message kicked off fresh coverage and debate about how large Bitcoin-focused funds could get if current trends continue. Bitcoin was trading near a fresh high at the time, which helped the comment spread quickly. Context Around The Claim Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,080 on Oct 7, 2025. At the same time, data cited by several outlets put global Bitcoin fund assets under management at about $200 billion. Those two figures were used by many market watchers to give the $1 trillion remark context: higher prices + rising fund flows = a much larger market for managed Bitcoin products. $1 trillion inbound…. https://t.co/6qTb3cOqg9 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 6, 2025 Hougan’s post was not a detailed forecast. It was short and informal. According to coverage, many crypto sites simply reposted the message and tied it to recent ETF inflows and renewed institutional interest. The post did not include a timetable or the assumptions required to get from roughly $200 billion to $1 trillion, and the lack of detail left room for analysts to disagree. Market Reactions And Caution Several mainstream outlets treated the remark as bullish but urged caution. Reuters and other outlets pointed out that institutional adoption is still limited when compared to traditional asset classes. According to some analysts, getting to $1 trillion in Bitcoin fund AUM would mean a big, sustained shift by large investors such as pension plans and big wealth managers, not only short-term retail buying or a single strong month of inflows. Simple Math, Big Gaps If global fund AUM is about $200 billion now, reaching $1 trillion would mean a growth of five times that level. That implies adding roughly $800 billion in assets to crypto funds. Those are not small sums. They would require consistent flows over many months or years, plus choices by big institutions to allocate meaningful portions of their portfolios to Bitcoin. Related Reading: 2%–4% In Crypto? Morgan Stanley Thinks That’s The Smart Move Now What Needs To Happen Analysts say several things would have to happen for that scenario to play out. Based on reports, regulators would need to stay predictable, more large money managers would have to offer and scale Bitcoin products, and major institutional investors would have to shift part of their capital toward these funds. Hougan’s short message has, at minimum, renewed a public conversation about how big Bitcoin investment products might become. Featured image from Wallpapers.com, chart from TradingView

The regulator's move sets the stage for a wave of new crypto products coming to market, but that alone won’t drive demand, analysts cautioned.

As Solana (SOL) taps the $225 barrier, Bitwise’s CIO forecasted that a bullish Q4 rally might be brewing for the altcoin if it follows Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s (ETH) recipe. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakdown Averted? Analyst Says This Level Will Determine BTC’s Fate Solana To Follow BTC, ETH’s Recipe? On Tuesday, Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, affirmed in a new memo to clients that the recipe for strong returns has been clear over the past 18 months: “Take one part ETP inflows, add strong corporate treasury purchases, and voilà—you get big returns.” Hougan explained that BTC followed this recipe since January 2024, while ETH discovered the same formula in April 2025. “It’s no surprise that the recipe works. It’s classic supply and demand,” he stated, adding that “all the ingredients are there for an epic end-of-year run for Solana.” As the CIO highlighted, multiple issuers, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and VanEck, have filed to launch spot SOL exchange-traded products (ETPs), which are expected to be approved at the start of Q4. As reported by NewsBTC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced last month that it had pushed back its decision on Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary Capital’s spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for two months, pushing it to October 16, 2025, “meaning we may have multiple issuers pushing spot Solana ETPs in Q4.” Meanwhile, three major firms, Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital, recently secured $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoins to launch a publicly traded SOL-focused treasury company, Forward Industries, to purchase SOL, stake it, and generate excess return. Hougan also noted that Forward Industries named Kyle Samani, who has been among the cryptocurrency’s most consistent promoters, as chairman. To Bitwise’s CIO, if Samani can “carry the Solana message” like Michael Saylor and Tom Lee have done with Bitcoin and Ethereum, it will help drive investor demand. SOL’s Secret Ingredient Hougan pointed out that the existence of ETPs and treasury companies does not guarantee demand, adding that there must be fundamental reasons for investors’ interest in those vehicles. “Solana is an Ethereum competitor,” he asserted, “it’s a programmable blockchain designed to host stablecoins, tokenized assets, and decentralized finance applications, among other things.” The blockchain recently approved a major technical upgrade that will make it one of the fastest networks in the world. Additionally, it is also third in stablecoin liquidity among programmable blockchains and fourth in tokenized assets, recording rapid growth in this sector. Nonetheless, he argued that there’s a key difference between SOL and the two leading cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits around $2.2 trillion, and Ethereum’s is near the $530 billion mark, Solana’s market capitalization is around $120.8 billion, 1/20th the size of BTC and less than 1/4th the size of ETH. “Scaled for the size of the blockchain, a relatively small amount of flows into Solana could significantly impact prices,” Hougan explained. Related Reading: Worldcoin Jumps 42% Following Eightco’s Announcement Of First WLD Treasury Strategy He detailed that Forward Industries’ $1.6 billion purchase of SOL shares would be the equivalent of $33 billion in BTC purchases, noting that this could be slightly offset by Solana’s higher annual inflation rate of 4.3%, versus Bitcoin’s 0.8% and Ethereum’s 0.5%. “The setup is still attractive,” he concluded, suggesting that investors keep their eyes on Solana in the coming months. As of this writing, Solana is trading at $222, a 5.1% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has stated that a growing number of professional investors are skipping Bitcoin and turning directly to Ethereum as their first crypto investment. This has long been regarded as the entry point into digital assets, and Bitcoin is now sharing the spotlight with Ethereum. Ethereum Emerging As First Choice For Professional Investors In Ripdoteth’s update on X, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has revealed on live that an interesting trend is emerging. He claims that many professional investors are bypassing Bitcoin and going directly to Ethereum,  whose utility in decentralized finance, smart contracts, and Web3 applications is increasingly drawing institutional capital. The reason he explains is rooted in how institutions already think about portfolio construction. Related Reading: You Know Bitmine Has Been Buying Ethereum, But Can You Believe How Much ETH The Company Now Holds? According to the expert, most professional investors don’t actually own gold. This is because Gold is considered a niche asset, with perhaps only 15% to 20% of institutions holding it, while the vast majority of 80% or more invest in stocks and bonds.  Since Bitcoin is often framed as digital gold, its appeal is limited for many professionals who never allocated to gold in the first place. “A lot of people look at Bitcoin like it’s digital gold. I don’t own gold, but I do own technologies,” Hougan stated.  ETH fits naturally into the portfolios of those who already allocate to innovative technologies. With tokenization and stablecoins gaining traction, he expects institutional flow into ETH to continue building momentum. ETH Hits All-Time Highs As Institutions Target Long-Term Holdings While institutions see Ethereum as the exposure to the technological backbone of a digital economy, Wall Street FOMO has hit historic levels, as the US institutional appetite for ETH is reaching unprecedented heights.  Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Whale Populations Quietly Growing, On-Chain Data Reveals Crypto trader Bull Theory has highlighted that in August 2025 alone, Ethereum Spot ETFs purchased $3.87 billion worth of ETH, driven almost entirely by professional investors chasing long-term exposure. Leading the charge is $11 trillion asset manager BlackRock, which allocated $3.38 billion worth of ETH and $707 million in Bitcoin, highlighting a clear preference for ETH over BTC. This wave of institutional buying pushed Ethereum to new all-time highs in August. Importantly, the majority of these purchases are intended for long-term holdings, reducing immediate sell pressure and supporting sustained price momentum. If ETH closes above $4,630, it will mark the highest monthly close since the 2021 bull run. Furthermore, Ethereum’s transaction volumes surged past $320 billion on-chain, reflecting broad engagement across decentralized finance, stablecoins, and tokenized assets. Meanwhile, staking continues to attract Wall Street attention, with nearly 36 million ETH, which is 29% of the total circulating supply, now locked in staking contracts. With 3% staking rewards, Ethereum provides institutional investors with a steady dividend, making it more appealing for long-term portfolios. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Market expert Mark Moss has drawn the crypto community’s attention to an indicator that has perfectly nailed Bitcoin cycle tops. Based on this indicator, the expert revealed that the cycle top is unlikely to happen this year, as other analysts may have predicted.  Pi Cycle Top Indicator Reveals Next Bitcoin Cycle Top In an X post, Moss stated that the indicator is predicting a Bitcoin cycle top in the first quarter of 2027, not at the end of this year. He made this comment while describing the Pi Cycle Top indicator as the “Holy Grail” of Bitcoin indicators. The expert noted that the indicator nailed the Bitcoin cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.  Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Alarm For 50% Crash If Bitcoin Doesn’t Make A New ATH Soon Moss admitted that this latest cycle top prediction is hard to believe, as everyone is expecting Bitcoin to peak in the fourth quarter of this year. However, the Pi Cycle Top indicator suggests that the Bitcoin cycle top will occur in Q1 2027 and that the BTC price could reach $395,000 by then.  Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also recently alluded to the Pi Cycle Top indicator, noting how it was hinting at a possible cycle extension. He also confirmed that the indicator predicts a Bitcoin cycle top will occur in Q1 2027, with the flagship crypto possibly reaching $400,000. The analyst noted that, based on previous cycles, the Bitcoin cycle top is expected to happen in the fourth quarter of this year.  However, the recent BTC rallies have caused the Moving Averages (MA) to shift to higher prices. With these MAs shifting with every Bitcoin rally, Rekt Capital stated that it could take at least until mid-early 2026 before a Pi Cycle Top crossover occurs. However, the analyst advised that it is still important to be cautious about Q4 of this year and possibly develop an exit strategy in case the Bitcoin cycle peaks then.  The BTC 4-Year Cycle Is Over In a recent podcast, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart and Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan gave their opinions on whether the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is over. Seyffart stated that he expects the amplitude of these cycles to reduce as more institutional investors enter the BTC ecosystem.  Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways Based on his statement, a Bitcoin cycle top might not happen as many expect, as the analyst predicts there won’t be massive drawdowns again with the flagship crypto maturing. On the other hand, the Bitwise CIO opined that the 4-year cycle for BTC is over.  He explained that the factors that drove this four-year cycle are now watered down. Meanwhile, there is a growing inflow into Bitcoin, which would continue to drive demand. In line with this, Hougan declared that 2026 will be an up year for Bitcoin.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $119,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Xanrox has declared that the Ethereum price is on the brink of recording a parabolic rally to $5,500, a new all-time high (ATH). He also outlined factors that could drive the ETH rally to this target.  Ethereum Price Eyes Rally To $5,500 In The Short Term In a TradingView post, Xanrox predicted that the Ethereum price could rally to $5,500 in the short term because banks and states are buying. He also claimed that ETH is part of the USA crypto reserve, which is bullish for the altcoin. Meanwhile, the analyst also alluded to the Ethereum ETFs, as another factor that could drive demand for ETH.  Related Reading: Ethereum ATH Above $4,800? Here’s How High It Will Go If 2021 Repeats According to him, these institutional investors count ETH as the future of the crypto industry, which is a positive for the Ethereum price. These institutional investors have recently been warming up to ETH amid optimism that these funds could soon include a staking feature following the SEC’s approval. For the first time last week, these funds beat the Bitcoin ETFs in daily flows. Xanrox is also bullish on the Ethereum price from a technical analysis perspective. He noted that the altcoin is currently inside an ascending channel and breaking out with strong bullish momentum. The analyst also indicated that this was still a good time to buy ETH despite how much it has rallied this month, reaching a six-month high.  He claimed that the Ethereum price is somewhere in the middle. As such, those who buy now can get to sell when ETH reaches $5,500. Xanrox added that the $5,500 level is likely where the altcoin will consolidate for a long time before going higher. Interestingly, his accompanying chart showed that Ethereum could even rally to as high as $113,000 at some point.  A Demand Shock Is Coming For ETH In an X post, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan declared that a demand shock is coming for ETH, which is why he predicts that the Ethereum price will continue to rally. He noted that the altcoin is up over 50% in the past month and more than 150% since its lows in April, thanks to overwhelming demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.  Related Reading: Ethereum Road To $10,000: Replay Of May’s Playbook Predicts Another Breakout Matt Hougan expects this demand to keep rising. He noted that ETF investors remain significantly underweight in terms of their ETH-to-BTC holdings ratio. The market expert further stated that although ETH’s market cap is about 19% the size of BTC, the Ethereum funds have amassed less than 12% of the assets that the Bitcoin ETFs hold. As such, he expects these investors to allocate more ETH, which is bullish for the Ethereum price.  The Bitwise CIO predicted that Ethereum ETFs and treasury companies could purchase up to $20 billion of ETH in the next year, equivalent to 5.33 million ETH at today’s prices. Meanwhile, the Ethereum network is expected to produce around 800,000 ETH over the same period, resulting in demand that is seven times greater than supply.  At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $3,700, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Samson Mow, a Bitcoin expert and the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of JAN3, a BTC-focused infrastructure firm, has shared a striking take on the current valuation of the flagship cryptocurrency. According to Mow, Bitcoin is still far from its full potential and, in his view, should already be priced at $10 million per coin. Why Bitcoin Is Not Worth $10 Million Yet In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Mow stated, “If the world understood Bitcoin, we would be at $10 million a coin now.” This comment reflects his belief that Bitcoin’s true value is heavily undervalued and underestimated.  Related Reading: Massive $200 Million Sell Wall Holds Bitcoin At $111,000 And $113,000 – Here’s What We Know For Mow, BTC is more than just a coin to trade; it is a revolutionary asset that could shake up the foundations of the current financial system. With its capped supply, decentralized nature, and consistently growing value, many even believe that BTC has the potential to act as a global reserve currency.  Yet despite growing adoption and visibility, Mow argues that most people in the world, including institutions, policymakers, and retailers, still do not fully comprehend Bitcoin and its implications. According to the JAN3 CEO, this knowledge gap is what is holding Bitcoin back from achieving the massive price surge that he and many other long-term advocates anticipate.  While the $10 million mark remains speculative for now, Mow’s remarks reflect a wider sentiment among Bitcoin enthusiasts who see the current price as just the beginning. For example, top Bitcoin supporters and investors like Michael J. Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, have shared similar views, predicting an explosive rise in Bitcoin’s value to $10 million by 2035.  Likewise, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), has voiced strong confidence in Bitcoin reaching the $1 million mark. He believes this milestone could realistically be achieved within the next five years.  Demand For BTC Surges Among Institutions And The Wealthy With the growing belief that the Bitcoin price will only continue to rise in the long term, social media reports indicate a significant surge in interest and demand among financial institutions and the wealthy. Notably, Saylor, one of the biggest advocates for Bitcoin, has long been accumulating the cryptocurrency in hundreds of thousands. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Rally Over After $111,900 ATH? Global M2 Money Supply Is Still Going Donald Trump, the United States (US) President, has also been a public supporter of Bitcoin, with reports revealing that he is actively buying the flagship cryptocurrency. Even investing legend and hedge fund manager Hugh Henry disclosed earlier this month that he intends to sell his $35 million house to buy $10 million worth of Bitcoin.   Binance CEO Richard Teng also announced that the wealthy are showing significant interest in the leading cryptocurrency. He revealed that sovereign funds and high-net-worth individuals are now purchasing BTC like never before. This growing accumulation by institutions and the rich signals strong confidence in BTC’s long-term value and sustainability. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

In an interview with the Paul Barron Network, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan expressed his perspective on the long-debated regulatory battle surrounding XRP and its potential market reaction once legal uncertainties are resolved. According to Hougan, the crypto asset—long restrained by litigation—may be significantly undervalued, with the potential for a sharp market correction following a favorable resolution to its legal entanglements. Since 2020, XRP has been entangled in a legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accused Ripple Labs of conducting an unregistered securities offering. The lawsuit has cast a long shadow over the token, restricting its growth within the US market and leading to its delisting from several major exchanges in the past. Related Reading: Analyst Says Only Buy XRP If It Reaches This Level Now, with the lawsuit potentially reaching its final ruling by April 16, according to Barron, market participants are speculating on XRP’s future trajectory. Hougan weighed in on the matter, pointing out that a resolution could unlock significant latent demand and shift the narrative around the asset. “From my 30,000-foot view, specific to XRP, I think there’s a significant chunk of the crypto market that has sort of written it off or forgotten about it. And I think that part of the market is wrong,” Hougan stated. What Happens Post-Lawsuit With XRP? One of the key takeaways from Hougan’s analysis is the idea that XRP remains an unknown variable in the broader crypto landscape. Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which have seen major adoption and institutional inflows, XRP has remained stagnant due to regulatory overhang. If the lawsuit concludes with clarity that allows unrestricted US adoption, the real potential of XRP in global finance could finally be realized. “The reality is, XRP has been suppressed by litigation for multiple years, and we don’t yet know what it can do on the global stage when it’s freed from those restraints,” he added. While Hougan did not make outright price predictions, he did note that institutional and retail sentiment could pivot quickly if XRP gains renewed regulatory clarity in the US. Related Reading: XRP Flirts With A Daily Range Breakdown – Price Must Hold Above $2 Level The discussion also delved into Japan’s aggressive adoption of XRP, with SBI Holdings leading the charge in integrating the asset into its digital banking ecosystem. As noted in the interview, XRP has now surpassed Ethereum in Japanese investor holdings, signaling deep institutional confidence in its future. Paul Barron emphasized that Japan’s approach could foreshadow broader global adoption: “SBI seems to be doing with XRP what Michael Saylor did with Bitcoin—strategically accumulating and positioning it for long-term institutional use.” Hougan agreed, highlighting that XRP’s role in international remittances and liquidity solutions remains underappreciated, and the ongoing legal battle has hindered a more comprehensive evaluation of its utility-driven demand. Another major topic of discussion was the possibility of an spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). While Hougan did not reveal any detail about Bitwise’s ETF filing and its progress with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), he highlighted the firm’s confidence. “We don’t file for ETPs for fun. We file for them because we think they can launch, and we think there is a significant audience, and we think it’s an important asset.” While some analysts argue that XRP’s legal troubles have already been priced in, Hougan’s comments concluded that the potential upside remains largely ignored by the broader market. If the SEC case concludes favorably, the re-listing of XRP on major US exchanges, new institutional flows, and expanded adoption in banking systems could lead to a market repricing event. “There’s no guarantee XRP will be enormously successful, but there’s equally no guarantee that it won’t be,” Hougan emphasized. At press time, XRP traded at $2.12. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

In a memo released on February 25, 2025, Matt Hougan—Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise Asset Management—drew striking parallels between today’s crypto market and what he observed in July 2024. Titled “Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain (Redux),” Hougan’s latest analysis suggests that, despite the current pullback, the industry’s underlying fundamentals remain as compelling as ever. Crypto Echoes Of July 2024 Hougan opened his memo by recalling the environment in July 2024, when he penned an earlier piece called “Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain.” Back then, crypto markets were reeling: “Bitcoin, which had peaked above $73,000 in March 2024, had fallen to roughly $55,000, a 24% pullback. Ethereum was down 27% over the same time period.” At the time, Hougan noted that “the crypto market is facing a weird dynamic right now. All the short-term news is bad, and all the long-term news is good.” He also cited catalysts such as potential ETF inflows, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and more supportive policymaking in Washington, D.C., contrasting them with then-immediate risks like Mt. Gox distributions and government sales of Bitcoin. Related Reading: From Hope To Crypto Panic: How A Day Of Highs For Coinbase Turned Into A Nightmare For Bybit That analysis proved timely. “Shortly after I wrote the memo, Bitcoin bottomed and proceeded to rip straight to $100,000,” Hougan wrote. In his latest note, he sees a similar duality at play: negative short-term developments on one hand, and powerful long-term tailwinds on the other. Yesterday, crypto markets were under renewed pressure: Bitcoin dropped at one point more than 10% to as low as $86,050, Ethereum by 18%, and Solana lower by 21%. The immediate trigger: last weekend’s hack of Bybit, a Singapore-based exchange, which suffered a $1.5 billion Ethereum theft via a phishing scam. Though Bybit dipped into its reserves to make clients whole, the breach reverberated across the industry. The hack followed on the heels of a spate of memecoin scams, including Libra, endorsed by Argentine President and noted crypto proponent Javier Milei. The memecoin cost investors billions in what Hougan described as a “multi-billion-dollar scam.” Moreover, Melania, a project tied to First Lady Melania Trump, also collapsed, causing substantial losses for token holders. Trump, a memecoin linked to US President Donald Trump fared no better. “Taken together, these events probably spell the end of the recent memecoin boom,” Hougan commented. While many institutional and long-term crypto participants may view the memecoin sector with skepticism, its trading volume and buzz have fueled overall market activity—particularly in the Solana ecosystem. Related Reading: Crypto CEO Calls Start Of The Altcoin Season With A Caveat Despite the negative headlines, Hougan points to a robust foundation beneath crypto markets. First, Hougan highlights the pro-crypto regulation under the Trump administration. In his view, “We are in the early days of a massive shift in Washington’s attitude towards crypto.” He cites the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent decision to drop high-profile lawsuits against companies like Coinbase and ongoing legislative efforts around stablecoins and market structure. Such developments, he argues, will help crypto break into mainstream finance. Second, institutional adoption is still growing. Large-scale buyers—including asset managers, corporations, and even governments—continue to accumulate Bitcoin. Hougan notes that so far this year, “investors have plowed $4.3 billion into bitcoin ETFs,” and he expects that figure to balloon to $50 billion by year-end. Hougan also expects a stablecoin boom. Stablecoin assets under management have climbed to a record $220 billion, marking a 50% jump from last year. With favorable legislation making its way through Congress, Hougan believes the sector could grow to $1 trillion by 2027. Lastly, the Bitwise CIO predicts the rebirth of DeFi and tokenization. Lending, trading, prediction markets, and derivatives see record heightened usage. Meanwhile, the tokenization of real-world assets continues to hit all-time highs in assets under management, suggesting that blockchain-based representations of traditional securities and commodities may be on the rise. Hougan refers back to his July 2024 thesis to underline today’s opportunity. On the negative side, markets have to navigate aftershocks from Bybit’s massive hack and the implosion of multiple memecoin projects. On the positive side, regulatory clarity, institutional inflows, stablecoin expansion, and DeFi innovation continue unabated. “This is what I call a no-brainer,” Hougan wrote, underscoring his stance that serious long-term factors overwhelmingly outweigh the short-term setbacks. He does offer a measured warning, noting this pullback may prove more pronounced than last summer’s dip: “The memecoin boom was large, and the hangover could be more significant. It might take days, weeks, or months to work through it.” Yet his conclusion remains firm: the long-term growth narrative remains intact. “When that happens, I like my money on the long term,” he stated, reiterating that patience can be rewarded in a market often swayed by headline-driven volatility. At press time, BTC traded at $88,349. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In every market cycle, the altseason is an anticipated period for investors marked by a general altcoins’ price outperformance against Bitcoin. However, there have been many doubts over an altseason in the current bull run with crypto analysts citing a surge in the number of altcoins over the last four years. Interestingly, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has backed the potential of a brewing crypto altseason. The key crypto figure and market pundit has stated that certain DeFi developments are pointing to a robust price surge for the crypto market. Related Reading: Altseason At Risk? Expert Believes Ethereum Must Hold $2,600 To Sustain Momentum DeFi Boom Incoming: Jupiter, Ondo, Uniswap Lead Charge To Altseason Via an X post on February 21, Hougan listed several developments, especially in the DeFi industry that hint at an incoming altcoin bull rally. Firstly, Hougan references the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s latest decision to drop its lawsuit against the Coinbase Exchange. In June 2023, the US regulator charged Coinbase to court over several alleged securities violations including serving as an unregistered exchange and broker. However, in a sharp turn of events, the SEC has decided to withdraw its complaint ending a 2-year long legal battle The Bitwise CIO also mentions DEX aggregator Jupiter’s recent move to activate a fee structure introducing a minimum of 0.01% fees on all platform swaps which creates a more efficient operational model. Another development raised by Hougan is Ondo Finance’s announcement of the Ondo Global Market, a tokenization platform designed to introduce on-chain exposure to US securities such as stocks, bonds, and exchange-traded funds listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ. Finally, Hougan also spotlights the launch of the Unichain – an Ethereum-layer 2 solution designed by Uniswap labs to improve liquidity, cross-chain operatalibility and also significantly reduce transaction fees. In reality, these are all singular developments. However, Hougan explained these developments can be attributed to the ongoing efforts by the current US Government to create a “fair regulatory environment.” In doing so, crypto companies and DeFi projects can run effectively extending their reach beyond the digital asset space. The potential of this scenario is likely to encourage investor engagement serving as an early indicator of altseason.  In particular, Matt Hougan explains the DeFi market presents a lot of hidden potential to influence the non-crypto markets under the right conditions. Crypto Market Overview At press time, the crypto market cap is valued at $3.12 trillion after a 1.78% decline in the past day. Bitcoin maintains strong market influence with a dominance of 60.4%, followed by Ethereum (10.2%) and other altcoins (29.5%).  Meanwhile, the Altseason index is at 31 strongly in favor of the premier cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Tipped To Hit 57% — Altseason Incoming? Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation’s leadership in digital assets. Could 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Trend? Hougan’s note begins with an explanation of the so-called “four-year cycle,” where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Preparing For A February Rally? Analyst Says New High Is Two Weeks Away These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs. Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the “Mainstream Cycle,” emerging out of 2022’s “massive deleveraging” caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF. “Bitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance among both retail and institutional players. The most striking component of Hougan’s analysis is his examination of last week’s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a “national priority,” but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto. Related Reading: DeepSeek Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Peak At $500,000 – Here’s When “Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it’s making me wonder,” Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets. Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate. Hougan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there’s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?” While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products—he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued. However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. With the industry’s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. “As for now, it’s full steam ahead,” he concluded. “The crypto train is leaving the station.” At press time, BTC traded at $105,275. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In a newly released memo dated January 13, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise, argues that the phenomenon of corporations purchasing Bitcoin for their treasuries is far more widespread and influential than most investors realize. According to Hougan, “We’ll see hundreds of companies buy Bitcoin for their treasuries over the next 12-18 […]

More than half of wealth advisers in the United States surveyed by Bitwise say they’re more open to investing in cryptocurrency after Trump won the US election in November.

While the spot Bitcoin ETFs smashed industry expectations in 2024, the products finished poorly with outflows in six of the last eight trading days.

The broader crypto market experienced a pronounced downturn following yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held on December 18. After the US Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut as anticipated, it also signaled fewer cuts in 2025 than previously expected. In response, the Bitcoin price fell by more than 5%, dropping below the $100,000 mark before showing slight signs of recovery. Altcoins saw across-the-board double-digit percentage declines. The Federal Reserve’s decision—while meeting expectations for a 25-basis-point reduction—came with a notable shift in the projected rate trajectory for next year. Rather than the previously communicated four cuts, the central bank now anticipates only two, signaling a more cautious stance. This recalibration of future monetary policy sent ripples through the entire risk asset spectrum, prompting the S&P 500 to decline 3% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index to drop 4.4%. Is The Crypto Bull Run Over? Within the crypto sector, the immediate aftermath was pronounced. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, addressed the market conditions this morning via X, writing: “The big catalyst today was the Fed announcement […] The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but lowered expectations for next year from 4 cuts to 2 cuts. Higher rates are bad for risk assets, and the Fed’s announcement caused a sharp pullback in all risk assets.” Related Reading: Bitwise Exec Reveals His Personal Top 3 Crypto Predictions For 2025 According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s price action reflected heightened sensitivity to shifting monetary conditions. He noted that Bitcoin price drop was exaggerated by leveraged positions being liquidated. “$600 million of leveraged long positions were blown out in today’s market, exacerbating the pullback.” Despite the steep correction, Hougan argued that the broader outlook remains constructive: “Crypto now has internal momentum, and nothing about today’s announcement interrupts the mega-trends: The pro-crypto reversal in Washington policy, rising institutional adoption and ETF flows, Bitcoin purchases by governments and corporations, and major tech breakthroughs in the programmable blockchain space.” He pointed to technical indicators as a supporting factor for his thesis: “My favorite momentum gauge is still positive: Bitcoin’s 10-day exponential moving average ($102k) is still above its 20-day exponential moving average ($99k).” Related Reading: Crypto Watchlist: Top 5 Coins To Watch This Week Hougan concluded his thread by maintaining that the shift in Fed expectations would not derail the longer-term bull run, stating: “Crypto’s in a multi-year bull market. 50bps of projected rate cuts won’t change that.” Other market observers offered similar interpretations of the Fed’s communication strategy. Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research, commented via X: “By upping inflation forecast, lowering UE rate, and keeping cuts in place, the Fed has actually opened the path to more than 2 cuts in 2025 as data ‘surprises’ to the dovish side.” Renowned macro analysts echoed this sentiment. Crypto analyst and podcaster Fejau (@fejau_inc) described the central bank’s approach as a strategy designed to guide market expectations: “Fed forced itself into cutting this week so is using a hawkish 2025 FFR dot plot forecast to talk down long bond yields despite cutting today […] Welcome to macro psyop warfare. Smoke and mirrors baby.” He characterized the dot plots as a tool for psychological influence rather than a strict roadmap: “It’s important to view the dot plots not as a future forecast of events, but as a psychological tool […] The Fed has bought themselves time to allow further data to come out before they actually make a move […] Can almost guarantee you 2025 will not occur as is forecasted in their dots.” Andreas Steno Larsen, CIO of Steno Global Macro Fund and CEO at Steno Research, offered a similar assessment: “By hawking up all forecasts a lot, the Fed lowers the bar materially for cuts next year. It is a wise move, if you want to cut further, but do not want to precommit.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $101,766. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shared his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, projecting significant price appreciation by the end of 2025. “We expect Bitcoin to be up above $200,000 by this time next year,” Hougan stated, attributing this forecast to three primary sources of demand: exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate investments, and governmental acquisitions. Hougan elaborated, “There are ETFs that are vacuuming up Bitcoin, public companies like MicroStrategy are accumulating Bitcoin, and now we’re seeing discussions about governments investing in Bitcoin. It ultimately boils down to supply and demand—there’s too much demand and not enough supply, which drives the price higher.” When probed about the sustainability of such demand, Hougan emphasized the gradual awakening of different investor segments to Bitcoin’s value proposition. “People just wake up to Bitcoin at different paces. We’ve seen retail investors engage first, followed by companies and financial advisors, and now institutions are recognizing that Bitcoin belongs in a diversified portfolio,” he explained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Here? What Historical HODLer Selloff Pattern Says “Bitcoin is now a global macro asset worth a few trillion dollars, and virtually every investor should have some exposure. We still have a large number of investors to go, which is why I believe we’re still early in this journey. We have many quarters to go,” he added. How High Can Price Go If The US Buys Bitcoin? A pivotal aspect of Hougan’s forecast hinges on the potential establishment of a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Addressing this, Hougan remarked, “If we do get a Bitcoin strategic reserve where the government is buying Bitcoin, as proposed in Senator Lummis’ bill for the government to purchase a million Bitcoin, $200,000 Bitcoin is going to be looking quaint. You’re going to be looking at three four $500,000 Bitcoin. It’s just too big a story because governments all around the world would have to do it.” Hougan admitted that he was first skeptical about Trump suggestions to establish a SBR. “But over the months, it hasn’t gone away in fact we continue to see leaders in the Trump Administration suggest that they’re open to it,” Hougan remarked. The Bitcoin CIO still thinks that the odds of the US government buying Bitcoin is less than 50%, but “it’s not zero,” he added. “If it happens or if we start to see it happening in other countries, you’re going to see a rip up in Bitcoin that will make 2024 look pretty docel in comparison.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Now In Selling Mode For A Year: Should You Be Concerned? Hougan also highlighted the role of institutional platforms, specifically citing Coinbase as a potential major beneficiary in the evolving crypto landscape. “Coinbase is currently about half the size of Charles Schwab, and we believe it could surpass Schwab in brokerage size,” he noted. “Coinbase hasn’t had major competitors bubbling up to challenge it; it’s sort of had a degree of regulatory capture, if you can believe it. As a result, it’s been able to sustain its high margins in brokerages and then layer on things like stablecoins. [..,.] It’ll also help if it gets into the S&P 500; you see institutions buying it broadly. I think it’s a really unique situation driven by the fact that there was so much regulatory uncertainty—it cleared the competitive fat path and now it’s going to reap those rewards and build a really, you know, maybe an unsalable position leading this industry in the US.” Looking ahead to the broader market, Hougan anticipated an influx of crypto-related companies entering public markets. “We can expect firms like Kraken, Anchorage, and Chainalysis to go public, further normalizing the industry,” he stated. “This influx will lead to increased Wall Street coverage and institutional investment, setting the stage for a robust IPO window in 2025.” Despite the optimistic outlook, Hougan acknowledged potential risks that could impede Bitcoin’s growth. “The biggest risk is that politicians don’t deliver on their promises—if we don’t achieve regulatory clarity or fail to establish a strategic reserve, the expected bull market might not materialize,” he cautioned. “Regulatory and political factors are crucial drivers for crypto in 2025, and any setbacks in these areas could pose significant challenges.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $104,212. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitwise has predicted that in 2025, Bitcoin could hit $500,000, Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and AI agents will drive the next “memecoin mania.”