Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been marked by a highly volatile phase that saw it briefly reach above the $106,000 mark. However, this was followed by a return to consolidation around the $103,000 price level. This intense volatility in the past 24 hours suggests that the Bitcoin price still has a long way to go before it reaches a price top. Amid this volatile movement, a new macroeconomic model, the Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO), has pointed out when to expect Bitcoin’s price to top this cycle. Decode’s Macro Trend Oscillator Model And Its Alignment With Bitcoin Peaks The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a sophisticated tool designed by a Bitcoin analyst known as Decode on the social media platform X. The oscillator aggregates around 40 macroeconomic indicators, ranging from interest rates and global liquidity to industrial production and market volatility, into 17 carefully selected leading metrics. Related Reading: Golden Ratio Multiplier Called Bitcoin Top In 2021 – Here’s What It’s Saying Now These are then normalized and visualized as a histogram to produce a cyclical pattern that has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s major tops. A close look at the chart titled Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in a deep red zone but has begun inching upward, with the most recent bar reading at -11.47, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions may soon start to favor a bigger rally for Bitcoin. BTC Mode Configuration Fine-Tunes Cycle Top Prediction Decode’s analysis goes beyond Bitcoin-specific indicators. In one of the accompanying charts of the S&P 500 Index of the 2M timeframe, a long-term comparison is made between the current global environment and the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Interestingly, Decode’s macro trend oscillator proved reliable in estimating periods of downturns and expansions in both instances. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly SuperTrend Flashes Sell Signal From 2022 Despite BTC/USD Strength In both instances, inflation pressure and declining consumer sentiment pushed the oscillator deep into negative territory for years. However, once the histogram flipped into the green, the economy and prices entered a prolonged phase of expansion. The third chart offers a more detailed view of Bitcoin’s weekly trend, including an overlay of M2 money supply growth, which is another popular monetary metric. This view highlights how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when switched to a configuration Decode called “Bitcoin Mode,” fine-tunes its sensitivity to metrics that directly impact crypto markets. In this configuration, only a few of the full 17 metrics that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used. As it stands, Bitcoin is still in the negative red histogram zone, even despite its rally in recent months. The first deep green histogram has yet to show up, not to mention the first light green bar that will mark the cycle peak. Based on this setup, the oscillator implies that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to run this cycle, and that a price top is unlikely to arrive in 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkemeci, Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to show signs of a trend reversal after weeks of downward movement. Notably, BTC surged past $100,000 yesterday for the first time since February 3. Bitcoin On The Verge Of Trend Reversal? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $100,000, approximately 5.2% below its all-time high (ATH) of $108,786, set earlier this year on January 20. The leading cryptocurrency has staged an impressive rebound of over 20% from its recent low of $74,508 recorded on April 6. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Apparent Demand’ Makes Sharp Rebound – Will BTC Breakout Soon? In their analysis, crypto analyst burakkemeci referred to the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, saying that it is flashing the early signs of a potential bullish trend reversal. The analyst noted: With Bitcoin surging back above $100K, the indicator has started flashing bullish signals again – for the first time in weeks. Although the signal is still weak (coefficient: 0.029), the mere appearance of a positive shift is encouraging. To explain, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is an on-chain tool that tracks long-term and short-term market sentiment by comparing price momentum and investor behavior trends. It uses two key components – the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MA) – to identify shifts between bull and bear cycles. Importantly, the analyst pointed out that the Bull-Bear 30-day MA has started to turn upward. If this metric crosses above the 365-day MA, historical trends suggest Bitcoin could enter a phase of parabolic price growth. Recent macroeconomic developments may further support the bullish narrative for Bitcoin. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, recently highlighted the relationship between the global M2 money supply and the price of BTC. Bittel shared a chart that overlays BTC’s price with the M2 money supply, adjusted with a 12-week lag. The data reveals a steep increase in global liquidity since early 2025, implying that BTC could follow this trend and continue rising in the months ahead. Warning Signs Still Linger For BTC Despite recent strength, not all signals are bullish. Analysts caution that the current rally has been accompanied by aggressive profit-taking, increasing the chances of a local top forming. Related Reading: Bitcoin Still Far From A True Supply Shock, Analyst Explains Further, recent analysis shows that BTC’s Demand Momentum is yet to come out of negative territory. The analyst noted that such market behavior is mostly prevalent during late-cycle distribution phases or macro-level consolidation periods. That said, Bitcoin’s Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is beginning to reflect renewed bullish momentum. At press time, BTC trades at $103,444, up 4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
A Bitcoin price prediction made exactly one month ago by popular crypto analyst Doctor Profit on social media platform X has unfolded with interesting accuracy. On March 21, Doctor Profit outlined a detailed price trajectory for Bitcoin, predicting specific price movements, resistance and support zones, and the influence of the M2 money supply. Fast forward to April 21, Bitcoin’s price movements have closely mirrored the analyst’s forecast, lending credibility to the remaining parts of his prediction. How Bitcoin Followed Doctor Profit’s March Forecast Doctor Profit’s analysis is based on Bitcoin’s response to changes in the M2 money supply, which he identified as a misunderstood indicator. He argued that although the market experienced an increase in liquidity starting in February, Bitcoin’s significant bullish rally from September 2024 onwards had already factored in this liquidity expansion, contrary to what most investors had expected. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Break $125,000 But Sell Everything In October, Analyst Warns Notably, Doctor Profit had previously highlighted a key technical level, the weekly EMA 50, also known as the Golden Line, at approximately $76,000. He expected a bounce from this level, projecting a move to the $87,000 to $88,000 region before another correction. Bitcoin followed this script almost exactly, crashing in the first few days of April before rebounding from around $76,000 on April 9. Now, Bitcoin has rallied back above $87,000, coinciding precisely with Doctor Profit’s prediction. Next Phase: Bitcoin Heading For Support Zone At $70,000 To $74,000 Now that Bitcoin has bounced and is trading above $87,000 again, Doctor Profit’s immediate next target is a potential crash towards $74,000 to $70,000, which is slightly below the highlighted Golden Line. According to the analyst, the market’s behavior at this support zone will be decisive. It is at this zone that the Bitcoin price will reveal its next major directional bias. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Oversold Levels, Analyst Warns This Is Bearish, Not Bullish Doctor Profit laid out two clear scenarios based on Bitcoin’s reaction within the $74,000 to $70,000 price range. If Bitcoin experiences only a temporary wick into this range and manages a strong daily or weekly close back above the Golden Line, this would signal a reversal, and it would be prudent to close short positions and begin accumulating long positions. However, if Bitcoin closes below this crucial area, it could trigger a deeper bearish move, leading its price to significantly lower levels, possibly revisiting the $50,000 region under a worst-case Black Swan scenario. Notably, whichever bearish scenario plays out, it is expected to occur by April and likely into early May. Despite the current short-term bearish outlook, Doctor Profit maintained a bullish long-term view. He confidently predicted that the Bitcoin bull run would resume around May or June, eventually driving the price towards new all-time highs in the range of $120,000 to $140,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,526, up by 3.28% in the past 24 hours. The bearish outlook towards $74,000 would only be invalidated if Bitcoin successfully closes a weekly candle above the $100,000 level. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price crash from $97,000 in late February surprised most crypto market participants but not this analyst. The crypto analyst known as Doctor Profit, who previously warned of a correction when Bitcoin was approaching $97,000, recently released a new technical outlook that dissuades a bullish trajectory in the short term. In a breakdown shared on the social media platform X, Doctor Profit noted that the breakdown isn’t complete yet. This outlook comes from a former detailed analysis in which the analyst highlighted various Bitcoin price movements to watch out for, all of which have come to pass. Doctor Profit Says Bitcoin Market Dump Is Just Beginning Bitcoin has experienced ups and downs in the past few days with incredibly volatile movements. These ups and downs saw the Bitcoin price fall below $75,000 at the beginning of the week before spending the past four days on a recovery path towards $80,000. Amidst the price volatility, crypto analyst Doctor Profit clarified that he expects the current downward move in Bitcoin’s price to extend further. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000 In a recent post on social media platform X, the analyst described the correction as a “market massacre” that is expected to continue, stating that the party just started. He revealed that he had placed his first buy orders within the $58,000 to $68,000 range, suggesting that the Bitcoin price would keep falling until it reaches this region. Rather than seeing the recent decline as a setback, the price action is a calculated part of the broader strategy which the analyst laid out in an earlier detailed analysis. Doctor Profit’s analysis is based on the M2 money supply, a macroeconomic metric he believes is widely misunderstood within the crypto space. Many traders have recently cited the uptick in M2 as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, assuming that more liquidity means an immediate surge in prices. However, the analyst stressed that timing is everything. He noted that Bitcoin tends to front-run traditional markets when responding to M2 increases, but even then, the reaction is not instantaneous. What To Expect With BTC He reminds his followers that in July 2024, he predicted a 50bps rate cut, which was considered highly unlikely at the time. Once that cut materialized in September, around the same time Bitcoin was hovering near $50,000, he labeled it extremely bullish and called for a major rally. As it turned out, the M2 money supply began expanding in February 2025, which aligned with his forecast. Yet, he cautions that while M2 is now climbing, its effect on Bitcoin will play out gradually. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Mirrors Global M2 As Crypto Analyst Reveals May Timeline For “Blast Off” Looking at Bitcoin’s price behavior on the charts, Doctor Profit shifted his focus to the $70,000 to $74,000 range. He believes this range could either serve as a springboard for a fresh upward rally if a strong daily close occurs above the “Golden Line” around the weekly EMA50 or as a signal for a deeper downside if the price breaks beneath it. Should a more dramatic breakdown occur, the analyst advised scaling back and waiting for even lower entries around the $50,000 to $60,000 zone. Doctor Profit predicted that the bull run will not resume until sometime around May or June, with upside targets of $120,000 to $140,000. Bitcoin has managed to push above $81,000 after Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his ground-breaking tarriffs. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,000, up by 7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
A recent analysis comparing Bitcoin’s price movement and the Global M2 money supply has added another data point to the growing argument for a bullish phase ahead for the cryptocurrency. Colin, a crypto analyst known on social media platform X as “The M2 Guy,” recently shared an update suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a significant upward move, and the expected timeline might continue to test the patience of Bitcoin traders. Bitcoin’s Incoming Rally May Mirror M2’s Explosive Growth Colin, a crypto analyst known on X as “The M2 Guy,” has continued to build his case around the correlation between Bitcoin and macro liquidity trends. His outlook on Bitcoin, which is currently bullish, is based on an offset correlation between the cryptocurrency’s price action on the daily candlestick chart and the global M2 money supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 Money Supply Shows A Big Move Coming, Here’s The Target In a previous analysis, the analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price action on the daily candlestick chart has the best correlations on the 70-day and 107-day offsets. The most recent update from the analyst focuses on the 107-day offset, which he termed “the most likely scenario.” Analysis of Bitcoin’s 107-day offset with the global M2 money supply shows that Bitcoin is about to go on a blast-off spike. However, this isn’t just about a one-day spike. Colin projects the rally could last for two months based on the sharp vertical trend of the global M2 supply. As for the timing, the 107-day offset suggests that the blast-off spike is expected to kick off around April 30 based on a mathematically strong correlation. If the M2 line continues its upward surge, the rally could last even longer. Focus On The Macro, Not Just The Day Although April 30 is a focal point in his projection, Colin cautioned followers not to become overly fixated on the exact date. “Don’t get caught up in the weeds,” he advised. The larger narrative is more important, reflected in the soaring global M2 levels, which should create an environment ripe for Bitcoin and other crypto assets to benefit from increased liquidity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Turns Green For The First Time In 2025 In terms of a price target, the current trajectory of the global M2 money supply points to a rally above $140,000. However, interesting predictions have suggested that the Bitcoin price has a chance of doubling before the end of 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,310, having spent the last 24 hours trading in a range between $83,700 and $84,300. Based on this analysis of correlation with the global M2 money, bullish Bitcoin investors might need to wait for at least another month before any significant movement. This delay might pose challenges for short-term traders depending on their positioning and risk tolerance. On the other hand, it gives long-term holders the opportunity to accumulate more bitcoins at the current low price before the predicted rally. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Interest rate cuts, increases in the M2 money supply, structural deficits, and geopolitical tensions typically drive Bitcoin's price higher.
While the crypto market eagerly anticipates Bitcoin (BTC) breaking the $100,000 price level, the premier cryptocurrency may have even more room for growth in 2025 as the global M2 money supply expands. Global Liquidity Surge: A Catalyst For Bitcoin? In a detailed analysis on X, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, brought his […]
Bitcoin price rallied over 58% since May, when the M2 money supply turned positive year-over-year for the first time since November 2023.
According to JPMorgan analysts, a win for the Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump could further fuel Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum. Retail Investors Turn To Bitcoin For ‘Debasement Trade’ In a recent client note, analysts at JPMorgan suggested that a Trump win might provide ‘additional upside’ for both BTC and gold, as retail investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a ‘debasement trade.’ Related Reading: Bitcoin Makes ATH Against Euro Due To Change In Dollar Strength, Details Inside In simple terms, a debasement trade is a strategy to protect purchasing power against the steady erosion of fiat currencies due to extensive money printing. Notably, the M2 money supply – a measure of total money in circulation – sharply rose during the coronavirus pandemic. This surplus in money supply led to heightened inflation, forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates to contain it. By purchasing BTC, retail investors aim to maintain their money’s value, hoping Bitcoin will act as a hedge against currency depreciation. The JPMorgan note states: Retail investors appear to be embracing the ‘debasement trade’ in an even stronger manner by buying bitcoin and gold ETFs. The retail impulse is also seen in meme and AI tokens the market cap of which has outperformed. Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) have attracted a whopping $1.3 billion in inflows over the past two days alone. As of October 30, the cumulative net inflow to US-based spot BTC ETFs is $24.18 billion. October’s total ETF inflows alone amount to $4.4 billion, marking it the third-highest month for BTC ETF inflows since their launch earlier this year. However, institutional investors appear to have slowed down on BTC futures activity recently, with analysts noting that Bitcoin futures have entered overbought territory, potentially introducing vulnerability for BTC’s near-term outlook. The client note highlights that credit and prediction markets lean toward a Trump win, unlike equities, foreign exchange (FX), and rates markets. The analysts conclude: Overall, to the extent a Trump win inspires retail investors to not only buy risk assets but to also further embrace the ‘debasement trade’, there could be additional upside for bitcoin and gold prices in a Trump win scenario. Where Is BTC Headed? Analysts Share Their Outlook Bitcoin is trading within 2% of reaching a new all-time high (ATH), driving renewed optimism among crypto analysts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Rises 13% In 1 Month: Time For Q4 2024 Rally? For instance, crypto analyst Timothy Peterson recently posited that BTC could surge to as high as $100,000 by February 2025. Meanwhile, crypto options trading data indicates that traders remain confident BTC will hit $80,000 by the end of November 2024, regardless of the election outcome. Veteran trader Peter Brandt, however, has urged caution, advising BTC bulls that a daily close above $76,000 is critical for confirming a true breakout. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $71,798, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from FRED and Tradingview.com
Bitcoin could see a breakout to new all-time highs as soon as next month, but BTC must first tackle significant resistance around $59,500.
Bitcoin could see a breakout to new all-time highs as soon as next month, but BTC must first tackle significant resistance around $59,500.
The Bitcoin price could increase by over two-fold based on a key bull signal historically correlated with price rallies.