Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.
Washington lawmakers are moving on multiple fronts to curb the most politically toxic corners of prediction markets after millions of dollars flowed into bets tied to US-linked military action in Iran. Over the past week, several Democratic lawmakers have been pursuing multiple paths to rein in the fast-rising business. One effort, led by Rep. Mike […]
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Rulemaking is on the way for prediction markets, said CFTC Chair Mike Selig, as the agency moves to further assert its jurisdiction.
The proposed offering mirrors the probability-based format common on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
The platform is reimbursing all fees, settling pre-death positions at the last-traded price, and fully refunding post-death positions.
The company said it punished the MrBeast employee and another user it said tried to get away with contracts relying on inside information.
Kalshi says it has closed two insider cases involving a former California gubernatorial candidate and an editor who worked at MrBeast.
The bank said rising volumes, tighter market structure and early institutional engagement are pushing prediction markets beyond their gambling roots toward a new asset class.
Kalshi removed its X affiliate badges after the platform tightened rules restricting affiliate promotions tied to gambling-related content.
The judge found Kalshi is likely to succeed in arguing that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under federal commodities law, potentially preempting state regulation.
A deep look at predictions on Kalshi called such platforms valuable to policymakers and researchers, according to a new Fed paper.
Bitwise filed for prediction market ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election amid state regulatory scrutiny on the sector.
The filing marks the latest move by the agency to assert federal jurisdiction over fast-growing prediction markets like Kalshi & Polymarket.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig fired a legal warning shot defending his agency's jurisdiction over the event contract space.
Cboe wants to bring back all-or-nothing options, a contract that pays a fixed amount if a condition is met and pays zero if it isn't. While that might sound like a small product refresh, the timing makes it hard to ignore. Prediction markets have trained a new retail reflex: turn a belief into a number […]
The post Wall Street is desperate to copy crypto’s prediction markets as Cboe files for “Yes/No” options appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Buterin proposed replacing the current speculative model with AI-powered hedging tools that help users offset real-world costs like housing and food.
Kalshi has partnered with Game Point Capital for sports hedging as its Super Bowl trading topped $1 billion, and January volume surged.
Prediction markets entered the mainstream in 2025, with a fourfold surge in annual trading volume as a handful of venues consolidated control over what is rapidly becoming an institutional-scale product, according to a new report from blockchain security firm CertiK. The sector’s total volume rose from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, […]
The post Prediction markets hit $64 billion in 2025 but reliance on centralized logins has created a critical security flaw appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.
Jump Trading is reportedly poised to gain a stake in the two largest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Courts across the US are split on whether sports-related prediction contracts qualify as regulated financial products or unlicensed gambling.
The CFTC has scrapped a 2024 proposal to ban political prediction market contracts just as states double down on oversight.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission tumultuous legal fight with events-contracts firms is done, and its new leader is yanking previous policy efforts.
Nevada regulators accused Coinbase of offering alleged unlicensed sports betting through the exchange's prediction markets.
Hyperliquid, the decentralized exchange (DEX) behind the HYPE token, surprised the market on Monday with a new product initiative that ran counter to the prevailing bearish sentiment across the crypto sector. As several major cryptocurrencies slipped below important technical levels, Hyperliquid’s native token jumped roughly 14% following the announcement, signaling renewed investor interest despite broader market weakness. Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4 Proposal The rally was triggered after the Hyperliquid team revealed details of HIP‑4, a proposal that introduces outcome‑based trading to the platform. Shared via the social media platform X (previously Twitter), the announcement explained that HyperCore — Hyperliquid’s Layer‑1 blockchain engine — will soon support so‑called “outcomes.” These are fully collateralized contracts designed to settle within a predefined range. Unlike traditional leveraged derivatives, outcome contracts do not rely on leverage or liquidations, offering a different approach to derivatives trading. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now According to the team, outcomes are intended as a general‑purpose building block that can power use cases such as prediction markets and bounded, options‑like instruments, areas where user demand has been growing. Following the news, HYPE managed to hold firmly above the psychologically important $30 level and was trading near $33.22 at the time of writing. Over the past week alone, the token has surged approximately 48%. The move stands in stark contrast to the performance of the wider market. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) fell around 10%, Ethereum (ETH) dropped roughly 18%, and Binance Coin (BNB) slid about 11%. Challenging Polymarket And Kalshi Beyond price action, the Hyperliquid team emphasized the broader implications of the outcome primitive for its ecosystem. Outcomes introduce non‑linear payoff structures and fixed‑duration contracts, expanding the range of financial products that can be built on HyperCore. These contracts are also designed to work alongside existing components such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM, increasing the overall flexibility of the platform’s infrastructure. At this stage, outcomes remain under development and are currently being tested on Hyperliquid’s testnet. The team noted that standardized, or “canonical,” markets based on objective settlement sources will be launched once development is finalized. Depending on community feedback, Hyperliquid plans to eventually open the system to permissionless deployment, allowing a wider range of users and builders to create their own markets. Market researcher DeFi Ignas described the proposal as an important innovation, highlighting how outcome contracts could be combined with perpetual futures to create more efficient hedging strategies. As an example, he explained that a trader could hold a long ETH perpetual position while simultaneously purchasing an outcome contract that pays out if ETH falls below a certain price level, such as $2,000. According to Ignas, this type of composability is not currently possible on prediction platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi. Ignas also pointed to permissionless market creation as another potential differentiator. HYPE Battles Major Resistance HYPE’s price behavior reflects the instability of the crypto market, despite the euphoria surrounding Hyperliquid’s HIP-4. From a technical sense, $28 served as a major support level during the weekend, preventing further losses. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch On the upside, resistance near $34 has capped gains on multiple occasions, including two failed attempts to break higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Whether HYPE can decisively clear this resistance is likely to determine whether the recent rally extends further or gives way to another short‑term correction. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Cboe explores reviving all-or-nothing options as prediction markets hit record volumes and draw billions in retail trading activity.
The firm's analysts upgraded Circle shares to a “neutral” rating and raised the share price target to $77.
Prediction markets on the BNB Chain have seen massive growth over the past months, with the leading platforms within the ecosystem reaching remarkable levels and their cumulative trading volume hitting a new milestone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 50% Correction As BTC’s 2022 Bearish Playbook Repeats BNB Chain Sees Prediction Markets Explosion On Monday, BNB Chain announced that prediction markets in the ecosystem reached a new milestone, surpassing the $20.91 billion mark in cumulative trading volume over the weekend. Notably, the BNB Chain has expanded its presence over the past few months, diversifying with key players such as Opinion Labs, Probable, Myriad Markets, Predict.Fun, and XO Markets. Prediction markets are one of the most popular ways to forecast events and manage risk at scale, the BNB Chain explained in a blog post, becoming “powerful tools for smarter decisions in finance, governance, and beyond.” “From elections and sports to AI milestones and macroeconomic shifts, prediction markets transform scattered knowledge into actionable signals. Platforms like Polymarket, which saw over $2B in volume in October 2024, prove that decentralized markets can even outperform centralized forecasters,” they added. According to Dune data, prediction markets within the ecosystem have seen a significant surge since Q4, increasing nearly 89% just in the past month. The data also shows that BNB Chain has taken the lead in weekly trading volume by chain, surpassing off-chain prediction markets, Polygon, Solana, and Base since the start of 2026. Moreover, DeFiLlama data indicate that three platforms in the BNB ecosystem are currently among the top 5 prediction markets, only behind Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling increasing adoption. Opinion Labs ranks third in the list, with its 7-day and 30-day trading volumes reaching $725.56 million and $3.35 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, its open interest exceeded $144 million as of late January. Probable has seen $558 million in volume over the past 7 days and $1.05 billion in the last 30 days. The platform has also reached a $1.4 billion in notional volume and over 17,000 users just a month after its launch. ETF Push And Price Recovery The recent milestone comes as major institutional players share interest in the BNB token. Last week, Grayscale filed an S-1 form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) based on the cryptocurrency. If approved, the Grayscale BNB Trust (GBNB) will “reflect the value of BNB held by the Trust, including BNB earned as Staking Consideration” and offer investors exposure to the token without having to hold it directly. As of this writing, BNB’s price has recovered from Sunday’s correction and is attempting to turn a key area back into support. Market observer Rose Premium Signals highlighted that the cryptocurrency bounced from the strong $860 demand zone after the sharp corrective move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Confirms Bearish Structure After $98,000 Rejection — Here’s The Next Potential Target Moreover, it held the key Fibonacci retracement area, “which increases the probability of a bullish reaction.” If the altcoin successfully reclaims the $900 area as support, the analyst suggested that a retest of the $937 and $980 targets could follow. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Kalshi, a federally-approved entity, has been battling state-level enforcement actions over its sports event contracts.
The prediction market platform Kalshi will be preliminarily ordered by a superior court justice in Massachusetts to halt its online sports business there.