JPMorgan has put a numerical marker under this Bitcoin cycle, telling clients that the market’s “pain threshold” now sits near $94,000 — a level the bank frames as both a mining-economics floor and an answer to the question of how low spot can realistically trade before fundamentals start to bite. According to reporting by The Block, the analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argues that “Bitcoin’s downside from current levels appears to be ‘very limited,’” because they “see its support price at around $94,000.” How Low Can Bitcoin Go? The core of the call is JPMorgan’s updated estimate of Bitcoin’s production cost. In their latest note, cited by The Block, the analysts say the all-in cost to mine one bitcoin has risen from about $92,000 to roughly $94,000 as network difficulty has surged over recent months. That jump in difficulty forces miners to deploy more hashpower per block, lifting the marginal cost per coin. The team reiterates a framework they have used in prior cycles, stressing that “the bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a floor for bitcoin,” so a higher cost mechanically pulls the support zone higher as well. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross Is Coming: Don’t Be Fooled By The Name On JPMorgan’s numbers, the ratio of spot price to production cost now sits just above 1.0, close to the lower end of its historical range. That implies miners’ operating margin is thin and that there is limited room for an extended move far below the modeled cost without triggering stress in the mining sector. From that perspective, the bank’s $94,000 level is not presented as a precise line in the sand, but as a statistically grounded region where downside risk becomes compressed because miners’ incentives to keep selling into weakness deteriorate. The same note keeps a much more optimistic medium-term scenario in place. JPMorgan reiterates a 6–12 month upside case around $170,000 per bitcoin, derived from a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold. As summarized by The Block, the analysts estimate that Bitcoin currently “consumes” around 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, yet still has a smaller market capitalization — roughly $2.1 trillion versus about $6.2 trillion in private-sector gold investment via ETFs, bars and coins. To close that gap on a volatility-adjusted basis, they calculate Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise by about 67%, “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $98,000 As HODLer Selling Accelerates The Block also highlights how this view fits into JPMorgan’s recent track record of calls. In an earlier note last month, the same team argued that Bitcoin looked significantly undervalued relative to gold, implying upside toward about $165,000 by year-end. Panigirtzoglou has since dialed back the timing, telling The Block that, “it would not be realistic to expect this price target by year’s end,” given recent liquidations and very weak sentiment, and reframing $170,000 as a 6–12 month scenario rather than a near-term objective. The note further recalls an August projection around $126,000 by year-end; Bitcoin later printed an all-time high above $126,200 on Oct. 6 before a record liquidation event on Oct. 10 abruptly reset positioning. Those earlier pieces of research are consistent with a broader framework JPMorgan has been articulating publicly. In a separate analysis earlier this month, also led by Panigirtzoglou and reported by MarketWatch, the bank argued that post-October deleveraging left Bitcoin “very cheap to gold” on a volatility-adjusted basis and concluded that “this mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6–12 months,” with fair value again clustering near $170,000. What the new note, as relayed by The Block, adds is a more explicit downside anchor: as long as network difficulty and energy-input assumptions keep the estimated production cost around $94,000, JPMorgan sees that level as the effective floor that answers how low Bitcoin can go before mining economics force the market to confront its constraints. At press time, BTC traded at $97,505. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is experiencing a severe downturn over the past few days. After trading above $96,000 on Monday, its price slipped below $80,000 today for the first time since November 11. This rapid decline marks a nearly 18% slump since the start of the week. From its all-time high of $109,588 on January 20, Bitcoin has now shed approximately 27% of its value. Several factors have converged to exert downward pressure on the cryptocurrency. These include the newly imposed Trump tariffs, large-scale outflows from spot BTC ETFs, and exceptionally high levels of liquidations in the futures markets. While sentiment has clearly taken a hit with the Fear and Greed Index at 16 (“Extreme Fear”), some analysts note that these conditions could also be setting the stage for the next significant move––be it further downside or a potential rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Post-Election Rally Crushed: Prices Dip Below $84,000 As Tariff Tensions Rise How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Renowned crypto analyst Scott Melker, also known as “The Wolf Of All Streets,” highlights a developing bullish divergence on multiple timeframes. In a post on X, Melker writes: “BTC 4-HOUR: Bullish divergence still building after the hidden bearish divergence I was watching for. This could fail, obviously, but RSI is holding up well. If you have been following me for years, this is my favorite signal when confirmed. Oversold RSI with bullish divs building over multiple timeframes.” Technical analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) believes the market may be tracing out a familiar corrective pattern similar to what occurred in 2021 and 2022. He suggests this pattern “could get an extended fifth of a fifth situation that takes us well into late 2025.” He added that “this does mean this could go a lot lower than many are expecting, to about $75,000 if the same higher degree fractal is followed to the 0.5 Fib retracement.” Severino also cautions that traders “do not want to see Bitcoin tag the monthly Parabolic SAR, currently located at $75,742,” as a breach of that level could signal a deeper correction. He expects the Parabolic SAR will rise slightly by the monthly close, potentially pushing the critical support zone into the low $80,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes, Fear Spikes—But This Analyst Sees $153,000 Ahead Prominent trader Josh Olszewicz (@CarpeNoctom) tracks the Ichimoku Cloud for key insights. He points to a possible retest of Bitcoin’s weekly kijun, referencing “weekly kijun support at 74k if we keep going.” Olszewicz notes Bitcoin last tapped the weekly kijun during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024—an event that saw heightened volatility across global markets. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) draws parallels with previous market cycles when Bitcoin’s Daily RSI dipped to the 20 level: “The last time BTC was this ‘oversold’ [at 20] on the Daily RSI was back in August 2023 when it was trading at $25K. The time before that was after the FTX implosion at the bear market bottom in late 2022. Short term this means little but it should start peaking your interest.” He also spotted significant buy orders on Binance futures: “BTC ~$1.8 Billion in Bids has appeared on the Binance futures pair. These bids are sitting between $70K-$79K. What happens when bids like these appear is varied. Sometimes price never moves into them, when it does start hitting them, it often fills a lot of them before (shortly) reversing. Keep in mind, these are bids that can just as easily be pulled away. Highlighting this as it’s an insane amount and this is something you rarely ever see.” Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlights the role of liquidity in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. He noted spot volume was “highly active around $100K,” but explained that “prices drop when new liquidity dries up.” For Ju, the key question is: where will fresh liquidity come from if the market is already in a distribution phase? He foresees a potential extended consolidation between “$75K-$100K,” resembling Bitcoin’s price action in early 2024. Such a range could persist until a fresh catalyst emerges. “We’ll likely see an extended consolidation in the wide range (e.g., $75K-100K), similar to early 2024, imo. This could last until some good news for Bitcoin brings in new liquidity,” Ju predicts. At press time, BTC traded at $78,856. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In his latest video published on December 21, crypto analyst Rekt Capital tried to answer the question “What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Bitcoin Right Now?”. After reaching a new all-time high at $108,374 on December 17, the BTC price is down more than -11%. How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Rekt Capital put the Bitcoin price pullback in a historical perspective, underscoring the historical importance of weeks 6, 7, and 8 in a “price discovery uptrend.” Drawing upon past cycles such as 2013, 2016–2017, and 2021, he explained that Bitcoin has a strong tendency to correct during these specific windows, with some dips reaching as steep as 34% or even higher. “Understanding these weeks is crucial because they tend to be problematic for Bitcoin,” Rekt Capital stated, referencing past cycles where significant downturns occurred within this timeframe. For instance, in week 7 of the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 75% pullback over 13 weeks. Similarly, the 2016-2017 period saw a 34% decline in week 8, underscoring the recurring vulnerability during these specific weeks. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In For This Cycle? On-Chain Signals You Need To Know As of the current cycle, Bitcoin has undergone a 10%+ retracement, bringing its price into a historically critical support zone at $96,537 on the weekly chart. Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of this support level, noting, “This area of historical support has enabled the move to $108,000.” He cautioned that failure to maintain this support could trigger a more severe correction down to $89,830. Examining the price action of the last few days, Rekt Capital pointed out the emergence of a bearish engulfing candle in the weekly timeframe—a technical indicator often associated with potential reversals. “We’re losing resistances that turned into support,” he observed. This loss signifies a potential transition into a corrective period, as the price struggles to maintain its upward trajectory. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Peak Lies Above $225,000, The Timeline Will Shock You Rekt Capital also pointed out the importance of maintaining the 5-week technical line in his analysis. “If we lose this 5-week technical uptrend and the orange trend line, it would be mounting evidence that we might be transitioning into a corrective period,” he warned. Furthermore, he addressed the CME gap between the $78,000 and $80,000 price levels, a critical area that has remained unfilled. “Delving into 26%, 27%, 28% dips could fill the entire CME gap,” Rekt Capital noted. Historically, CME gaps have the tendency to get filled whereas there are a few ones which have never been filled. Despite all cautionary signals, Rekt Capital maintains a bullish stance in the long-term “These pullbacks are what enable future uptrends in the parabolic phase of the cycle,” he explained. Drawing from previous cycles, he illustrated how corrections have historically provided the necessary “breather” for the market. In the 2021 cycle, for example, Bitcoin experienced a 16% pullback in week 6 and an 8% dip in week 8, yet the overall trend continued upward. Similarly, the current 10% retracement, while significant, could serve as a preparatory phase for the next leg of price discovery. At press time, BTC traded at $95,000. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is down 6.5% from its recent local high, and market analysts expect BTC to bottom in the $65,000 to $69,000 range.
Bitcoin price is down 22% from its record high, and many analysts expect BTC to bottom in the $45,000 to $50,000 range.