Predictions markets had an edge on the polls in the 2024 US election, but are they actually helping pundits predict the future?
The crypto lobby has made its mark on the US presidential elections.
Less than a day before the polls closed in the United States, crypto analysts continued to offer their two cents on the future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. For example, many Wall Street analysts say wild BTC market prices will continue after the elections. Other analysts and observers have shared their price predictions based on who will win this Tuesday. Related Reading: Why One Analyst Says Now’s The Time To Buy XRP—Before It Hits $14 Gautam Chhugani of the Berstein Group projects that Bitcoin can increase to $80,000 or even $90,000 if the Republican Donald Trump wins the election. If Kamala Harris wins the polls, Chhugani expects the BTC price to dip to $50,000. But Bernstein didn’t stop making Bitcoin predictions immediately after the election; the group remains bullish on Bitcoin in the short term and expects the digital asset to hit $200,000 by 2025. According to Bernstein analysts, the other key factors driving Bitcoin’s price are the increasing demand for spot BTC ETFs and rising US debts. Bernstein Adjusts BTC Price Predictions: $50K Under Harris, $80-90K With Trump Bernstein analysts have adjusted their Bitcoin price estimates based on the potential outcomes of the upcoming U.S. election. If Harris wins, they foresee Bitcoin dropping to around $50,000, while a… pic.twitter.com/Z1zJ21aJ48 — The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) November 4, 2024 Bernstein’s Bullish Outlook For Bitcoin Next Year Analysts at Bernstein are betting on Bitcoin and expect its price to reach $200,000 by the end of next year, regardless of the election results. Gautam Chhugani made this bold prediction days before the Americans visited the polls and added that the results would not impact the long-term outlook for the asset. The analyst’s bullish project on Bitcoin is anchored on several factors. He even likened the asset to a “genie out of the bottle” and said stopping its price trajectory is difficult. Chhugani identified a few factors that can drive the asset’s price, including increased interest on the BTC ETFs and higher government’s national debt. Last month, Bernstein’s top analyst targeted $100k for Bitcoin but soon revised his projection to reflect changes in market trends. BTC’s Erratic Price Action Ahead Of Elections This year’s election battle between Trump and Harris is among the most highly debated and anticipated. In addition to traditional polling, data from betting markets like Polymarket became famous, too. For example, at Polymarket, Trump remains the favorite, cornering 63% of all wagers, with Harris getting 38%. Bernstein analysts say that regardless of the results, the asset will have short-term price movements. However, they expect BTC to benefit more from a Trump win. In the same Bernstein analysis, Bitcoin may increase to $90,000 if the Republican wins. Currently, Bitcoin’s price has dropped to $69k to $68k due to profit-taking. Also, analysts noted the weak inflows this week to ETFs. Most analysts agree that Bitcoin is still poised for an end-of-the-year rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Costs Spike To Nearly $50K As Miners Look To AI For Survival US Election Results Can Impact Other Digital Assets The US elections affect other digital assets besides Bitcoin. For example, in a Harris presidency, Ether may gain due to heightened regulations that can limit the performance of its competition, like Solana. However, Chhuhani offers a differing view, saying if the SEC adopts moderate policies, these can propel Bitcoin and other assets. This year’s election cycle puts crypto and the blockchain at the center of debates. Both candidates have shared their thoughts on crypto, with Trump offering more crypto-friendly solutions. Initially, Democrat Harris was reluctant to offer policy proposals, but she shifted her tone as the campaign moved forward. Featured image from Invezz, chart from TradingView
The prospect of favorable regulations and Bitcoin’s hedge status mean that Bitcoin can weather any election result and even reach $100,000.
According to the current Polymarket presidential election odds, Donald Trump is favored to win the election at 65.5%.
According to Paradigm, 20% of individuals surveyed indicated that they currently hold or have previously purchased crypto.
“Bitcoin is currently being used as a liquid proxy to hedge a Trump win,” which was previously seen as “underpriced,” according to an analyst.
Bitcoin price rallies within $200 of a new all-time high as several fundamentals point to the crypto bull marking picking up pace.
In an open letter to Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Charles Cascarilla highlighted the role of stablecoins in maintaining the US dollar’s global dominance and improving banking efficiency.
Bitcoin’s path to $70,000 hinges on lower interest rates, the US election outcome, boosted BTC miner profits, and strong spot ETF demand.
According to the current Polymarket 2024 US election odds, former President Trump is favored to win all six US swing states.
Bitcoin lost momentum as weak macroeconomic data, fear of a stock market correction, and worries over the upcoming US elections impacted investor sentiment.
Private wealth management brokerage Bernstein has predicted Bitcoin (BTC) price action based on the results of the highly anticipated US Presidential elections in November 2024. Bitcoin Could Hit New ATH If Trump Wins According to the Bernstein report, Bitcoin is a “Trump trade” as a win for the former US President could propel the leading […]
Crypto single-issue voters back Trump in pursuit of deregulating the US crypto industry and probably boosting their wallets, but do they grasp the broader economic policies at stake?
For young people especially, crypto has grown to be a hot button topic in the 2024 US election. Frustrated with the conventional financial system and seeking candidates to push their interest in digital finance solutions and digital currencies, Gen Z and Millennials today account for 40% of the vote, according a recent Coinbase survey. Related […]