The last full Bitcoin could be mined sometime in the 2090s. Only fractions will follow until roughly 2140, when the final satoshi is expected to be produced. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break 5-Month Streak With 2nd Consecutive Week Of Inflows That endpoint moved one step closer Sunday when miners pulled the 20 millionth coin from the network — exactly 17 years, two months, and one week after the first block was mined in January 2009. A Pool Called Foundry USA Did The Work The Foundry USA mining pool mined that coin at block height 939,999, collecting a reward of 3.125 BTC. That figure reflects the current payout level set by the April 2024 halving, which cut daily network production from 900 BTC to roughly 450 BTC. The 20 million mark means 95.24% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist is now out in the world. For every 20 coins already mined, just one remains to be created. The remaining 1 million will take about 114 years to fully issue. Not All 20 Million Coins Are Accessible According to blockchain analytics firms River Financial and Chainalysis, between 2.3 million and 3.7 million BTC are gone permanently — lost to forgotten passwords, misplaced private keys, and early holders who never passed on wallet access. Recent data has estimated about 1.8 million coins were lost during Bitcoin’s earliest years, when the asset had little value and storage infrastructure was unreliable. Another 230 BTC is locked forever due to the original genesis block and early outputs written with scripts that cannot be spent. The practical supply available to buy, sell, or hold sits well below 20 million. Miners Face A Long-Term Revenue Problem The same halving schedule that caps Bitcoin’s supply also shrinks miner income over time. Daily issuance will fall below 30 BTC by the 2040s and below 2 BTC per day by the 2060s. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Valuation Model Hints At $500K Cycle Average, Analyst Says Once subsidies approach zero, transaction fees become the only compensation miners receive for securing the network. Whether those fees can sustain robust protection remains unanswered. The milestone arrived while Bitcoin traded around $69,282, down nearly 21% year-to-date. Despite pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty and Middle East conflict, it gained about 3.44% over the past week. The next halving is scheduled for April 11, 2028, cutting the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Fidelity’s top markets strategist has warned that Bitcoin’s October high of $126,000 could mark the top of the current cycle, and investors should be ready for a rough ride in 2026. Related Reading: Banks Could Favor A Higher XRP Price, Finance Expert Says According to Jurrien Timmer, a notable pullback is possible next year with key support seen in a range of $65,000 to $75,000. That view sits alongside data points and trader commentary that recall past big drops after sharp peaks. Cycle Warning From Fidelity Timmer said Bitcoin’s price history follows a roughly four-year rhythm tied to halvings. Past peaks have been followed by steep corrections of about 70 to 85%. For example, after a high of $1,137 in 2013 the price slipped to roughly $230, and the 2017 peak near $14,050 later traded down toward $3,415. Prices surged again after 2021, and that pattern of parabolic advance then sharp retreat has been repeated. Some traders say those falls are tests of patience rather than a sign the story is broken. Fidelity Warns: #Bitcoin Cycle Peak May Already Be In Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer believes the $126K October high was the top for this cycle. Based on $BTC 4-year halving pattern, He expects 2026 to be a down year, with support around $65K–$75K. Short-Term Pain, Long-Term… pic.twitter.com/t9wNeF5lTo — Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) December 21, 2025 Historical Charts Show Parabolic Moves Reports have disclosed that long-term log charts help put these swings in perspective by showing percentage growth across cycles, which can make big-dollar moves easier to read. Market action often looks like a rapid climb to a peak, a quick drop, and a long period where prices move sideways and gains feel slow. Those sideways stretches are where many long-term holders are rewarded, though it can take years. BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end… — Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) December 21, 2025 Galaxy Research has flagged overlapping macro and market risks that make forecasting harder for 2026, and options and volatility trends suggest Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro asset than a pure growth gamble. Galaxy Research is still bullish on a multi-year view and projects a path toward $250,000 by the end of 2027. First Quarter Patterns May Matter Related Reading: Before You Sell Bitcoin For Gold, Hear This Warning Based on reports from traders, the first quarter has in past cycles been a period that often supports price stability, although recent years have shown less regularity. Large inflows and treasury buys that could arrive in 2025 might be offset by early-cycle selling from big holders. The balance between institutional demand and whale supply will likely show itself in the first half of 2026, making that stretch important for whether historical four-year rhythms hold firm. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle still exists, but what drives that rhythm has changed. He told listeners on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the calendar timing of halvings is no longer the main force. Instead, election timing, central bank moves and where money flows now matter more. Related Reading: Bitcoin Headed For $200 Trillion? CEO Makes Bold Prediction Shift From Halving To Politics And Liquidity Thielen highlighted that Bitcoin’s major peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all happened in the fourth quarter, and he believes these highs match up more closely with election cycles and political uncertainty than with the timing of the halvings. According to him, there is added market worry about whether the sitting president’s party will keep control of Congress. He said that could shape policy and investor choices, and he mentioned US President Donald Trump when discussing current political odds. The message was clear: politics changes expectations, and expectations move prices. The four-year cycle is still intact, but it’s driven by midterm elections, not the halving.@markus10x pic.twitter.com/5td8bLgb20 — The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2025 Liquidity And Institutional Caution The recent Fed rate cut did not spark the usual broad rally in risk assets. Institutional investors, who now have a larger role in crypto markets, are acting more guardedly as policy signals remain mixed and liquidity looks tighter. Capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, Thielen said, removing some of the buying pressure that helped push prices higher before. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, made a similar point in October, saying that global liquidity, not an automatic four-year clock, has always driven the main moves in cryptocurrency. According to Hayes, halvings may line up with rallies sometimes, but they are often coincidental. Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 in thin Sunday trading, a sign of fragile demand when volumes are low. Ether showed relative strength while major altcoins lagged. Traders are positioning ahead of a busy week of US data and central bank events, putting premium on signals that affect liquidity and risk appetite. With institutional desks watching macro reads closely, momentum is likely to depend on flows rather than calendar dates. Related Reading: Solana’s Long-Awaited Firedancer Launch Sparks 5% Rally What This Means For Investors The clearest takeaway is simple. The four-year pattern can still help frame expectations, but it should not be treated as a rule. Halvings affect supply and miner economics, and they matter to some market actors, but in a market shaped by large funds and ETFs the real fuel is cash and credit conditions. When liquidity loosens, prices can run. When it tightens, rallies can end. That lesson sits at the center of both Thielen’s and Hayes’s views. Policy and liquidity are now central to Bitcoin’s cycles. Reports indicate that the pattern has shifted from a purely mechanical schedule to one influenced by broader money conditions and political timelines. Market participants appear to be responding to economic news and central bank signals alongside the block reward schedule. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood says Bitcoin’s long-running four-year pattern may be losing its grip as big financial players buy and hold more of the supply, a shift that could tame price swings and change how investors plan ahead. Related Reading: Institutions Scoop Up 9,000 Ether, Fueling Bullish Signals Institutional Buying Is Changing Markets According to Wood, large firms and spot ETFs are slowly locking up coins that used to flow in and out of retail hands. The most recent halving, on April 20, 2024, cut the miner reward to 3.125 BTC. On a daily basis, that reduction translated to about a 450 Bitcoin drop in supply each day, a figure some analysts call small compared with the trillions attributed to the market’s value and the billions moving into ETFs. Ark has been active too, buying shares in Coinbase, Circle and its own Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), a signal that institutional demand is more than a rumor. Cycle Rules Are Being Questioned Based on reports from banks and crypto firms, the familiar cycle—rises tied to halvings followed by deep crashes of 75–90%—is under debate. Standard Chartered cut its 2025 price forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, arguing ETF inflows weaken the halving’s price punch. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju have said institutional flows have changed or even erased the classic rhythm. Markets hit a peak near $122,000 in July, and some analysts now say future drawdowns may be shallower, in the 25% to 40% range rather than the extreme collapses seen earlier. Market Structure Still Shows Old Patterns Not all evidence points to a finished cycle. Reports published by on-chain analytics firms such as Glassnode show behaviors among long-term holders that look like past up-and-down swings. Demand from late-cycle buyers has softened in ways that mirror prior years, according to that research. It is being argued that halvings remain meaningful interruptions inside a longer trend, not irrelevant events. Macro observers add that broader economic forces—rates, fiat liquidity, and institutional appetite—are increasingly important in the price story. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Declared ‘Dead’—Unless This Game-Changer Arrives, Expert Says Investors should expect longer moves more often, with rallies stretching over more months and volatility generally lower, analysts say. Wood suggested volatility is falling and that markets may already have hit a low a couple of weeks earlier. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle has ended, as current shifts in global monetary policy indicate expanding fiat liquidity.
Bitcoin’s famously noted four-year cycle, previously tied to its halving occurrences, could be losing prime market driver status, according to some top experts. For decades, the halving—a built-in reduction of miner compensation every four years—had been preceded by sharp spikes and precipitous drops in price. Related Reading: Chainlink Tipped To Outshine XRP In Global Banking Links: Analyst Now, however, the market is more subject to the influence of institutional money, regulated investment products, and general economic forces. Halving’s Control Fades As Rivals Gain Strength Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, noted the halving’s supply shock is much lower now compared to Bitcoin’s early days, where the majority of the coins were still being mined. Back then, cutting rewards had a clear and heavy impact on the market. In April 2024, Bitcoin’s price pattern broke from tradition. It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies. — Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) August 11, 2025 It had already hit a record above $74,000 in March—weeks before the halving—helped by the US approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a wave of institutional buying. Others are of the belief the halving still has a role to play, but no longer determines the price of Bitcoin. They talk about the increased importance of liquidity, ETF trades, and sentiment among investors and they point out these now carry the same weight as supply reductions. Halving’s Role Shrinks As Market Hits Record Highs Others feel the event is still relevant to miner economics and the long-term shortage narrative but has lost some of its power in influencing short-term pricing. To them, halving is simply an element of a larger picture involving macroeconomic trends and foreign capital inflows. Figures published by CoinMarketCap indicate that the combined cryptocurrency market capitalization hit a record high of $4.15 trillion, breaking its previous record of $3.80 trillion. Trading has seen increased levels of action, with over $140 billion of cryptocurrency exchanged in the last day. Related Reading: Ethereum Faith Fading? Samson Mow Says Holders Will Shift To Bitcoin Some observers are warning against writing off the four-year cycle as dead at this time. Excessive optimism often appears near market peaks, when many traders over-extend themselves and end up taking losses. Others went even further and claimed the cycle was never a law of nature but a consequence of the original design of Bitcoin, controlled by retail investors. In the meantime, the four-year cycle may be complete, according to Rochard, as halvings have little impact with 95% of BTC mined and retail, ETPs, and corporate treasuries leading demand. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Ether has underperformed bitcoin since last year's reward halving. The first time that's happened.
TRON founder Justin Sun has revealed that the network might reduce the TRX block rewards due to TRX’s rising price, sparking a discussion in the cryptocurrency community. Sun noted that this move is similar to Bitcoin’s halving mechanism, capturing the attention of investors who are wondering about the plan’s possible impact on traders. Related Reading: XRP Set For Big Rally – Analyst Says ‘Double Digits’ This Year Tron: Reducing Block Rewards Sun shared, in a post on X, his thoughts on potentially implementing a reduction in the network’s reward scheme for its TRX. He said that it is worth paying attention to the discussion about TRX’s upcoming reduction in block rewards. “Here are my personal thoughts. As we all know, TRX is already in a deflationary state of 1% per year, making it the only deflationary asset among major cryptocurrencies,” he explained. The TRON founder said that due to TRX’s rising price, “the rewards for block-producing nodes across the network have increased significantly, so a moderate reduction could be considered.” This discussion about TRX’s upcoming reduction in block rewards is worth paying attention to! Will TRX follow Bitcoin’s path and enter a halving cycle? Here are my personal thoughts. As we all know, TRX is already in a deflationary state of 1% per year, making it the only… — H.E. Justin Sun ???? (@justinsuntron) March 21, 2025 Following Bitcoin’s Path In the post, Sun said that TRX might follow what happened to Bitcoin, saying, “Will TRX follow Bitcoin’s path and enter a halving cycle?” He explained that the firstborn cryptocurrency followed a similar path, saying that once the BTC network grew, investors saw a gradual decrease in its block rewards. “In the early days, higher rewards were necessary for bootstrapping the network. However, as Bitcoin’s price surged, block rewards were lowered, and the halving cycle played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s long-term sustainability—aligning with Satoshi Nakamoto‘s original vision,” the founder added. Impact Of The Reduction Sun also shared the possible impact of reducing TRX block rewards, giving two scenarios. “If daily block rewards are reduced by 1 million TRX, the deflation rate would increase by 50%, reaching 1.5% per year,” he said. On the other hand, he believes that if TRX is reduced by 2 million, the deflation rate would increase to 2% per year, “effectively doubling the deflation rate, with an impact on TRX cycles comparable to Bitcoin’s halving.” “Even with a block reward reduction, the current incentives for network validators remain highly attractive. Ultimately, this decision rests with the TRX community,” he added. The founder revealed that the network has formally submitted on GitHub the proposed block rewards reduction. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Pounce On The Dip, Snag $236 Million In ETH “The adjustment aims to create a more balanced supply-demand dynamic encouraging increased user participation in staking. This will benefit all stakeholders, ensure the TRX block rewards consistent with the maturity of the TRON network, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the TRON ecosystem,” the network stated in the proposal. Among the benefits that can be gained from its implementation are better deflation, increased staking incentives, strengthened network security, and improved economic alignment. “Timely adjustments to TRX block rewards can better promote the healthy and sustainable development of the TRON network and TRON ecosystem,” the network added. Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView
ETFs, hashrate markets and AI have fundamentally reshaped the bitcoin mining industry, reducing miners' dependence on bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin has fallen 10% so far this month but analysts say it has fallen between 25% and 30% in the month of January in past post-halving markets.
Even if Bitcoin gains half of what it did during price discovery in 2021, that would still propel it to $150,000, said one trader.
Bitcoin celebrates 12 years since its first halving event, with block rewards shrinking to 3.125 BTC and miners adapting to higher difficulty amid rising prices.
Donald Trump’s win in the United States presidential election may not be the “main story” driving the Bitcoin price rally, says Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers.
Miners including Cormint and TeraWulf are among the lowest-cost producers of Bitcoin, an important advantage amid tightening margins, CoinShares said.
Bitcoin’s failure to hold $64,000 could be an early sign that a price reversal is beginning.
Bitcoin’s failure to hold $64,000 could be an early sign that a price reversal is beginning.
VanEck expects Bitcoin’s long-term bull market to continue, but miners are struggling.
VanEck expects Bitcoin’s long-term bull market to continue, but miners are struggling.
Bitcoin price fell closer to $56,000, leading traders to question whether the bull market is coming to an end. US job market data could hold the answer.
Mining revenues hit 12-month lows in August, according to Bitbo.
Bitcoin declined by a very similar amount following the halving in 2016 and before the 2017 bull run.
The success of Bitcoin ETFs and the influence of the Bitcoin halving is having a significant impact on cryptocurrency markets.
Glassnode advises Bitcoin investors to moderate their expectations for the upcoming halving, citing historical data and diminishing returns.
The post Bitcoin investors to moderate price expectations post-halving: Glassnode appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The new BTC supply added to the market could drop to $30 million per day, according to Bitfinex.
Pre-halving Bitcoin miner reserve sales and the U.S. spot ETFs have mulled any negative Bitcoin price action after its halving, says Bitfinex.
The SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs has transformed the market, with inflows supporting prices and altering post-halving dynamics.
The post Bitcoin on-chain metrics are “decidedly positive” after the halving, highlights Bitfinex report appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Bitcoin enthusiasts around the globe can now breathe a collective sigh of relief as the world’s premier cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rebounds from a recent downturn. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Strike Gold: $107 Million Profit From Runes-Fueled Minting Spree Last week witnessed Bitcoin, akin to the broader market, sliding below the $60,000 mark, primarily due to risk aversion, the US tax season, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, in a surprising turn of events, Bitcoin has not only recovered but has surged past the $66,000 mark, reigniting optimism and sparking discussions about its future trajectory. This recent resurgence in Bitcoin’s price comes on the heels of a significant price correction that coincided with April’s highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event. The halving event, a recurring phenomenon in Bitcoin’s protocol, entails a reduction in the rate at which new Bitcoins are mined, effectively halving the supply. 20% drawdown would fit the current bull’s pattern: pic.twitter.com/usNxQz1t92 — Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) April 18, 2024 Historically, this event has been associated with heightened market volatility, as some analysts feared that the supply shock could trigger a prolonged sell-off. Nevertheless, prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space, such as Tuur Demeester, offer a more sanguine perspective. Demeester suggests that the recent dip to $60,000 might signal the floor of the correction, aligning with historical patterns observed during bull markets. According to Demeester, a 20% drawdown from highs is considered a typical correction for Bitcoin, and thus, there is a strong possibility that $60,000 could serve as a support level moving forward. BTCUSD trading at $65,883 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView.com While Demeester advocates for stability in Bitcoin’s price, anoother analyst, McKenna, foresee a period of sideways movement. McKenna agrees with Demeester regarding the $60,000 floor but predicts that Bitcoin may enter a re-accumulation phase, characterized by prolonged sideways price action. I think there is a high probability that the bottom for the halving selloff is in but simultaneously think there is an equal high probability that we are forming a re-accumulation range. Meaning expect sideways price action for longer than expected. #BTC pic.twitter.com/K24Md0TKXH — McKenna (@Crypto_McKenna) April 21, 2024 Interestingly, McKenna believes that this sideways movement could present an opportune moment for alternative cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, to shine in the short term. Related Reading: Will Celestia (TIA) Hit $130? Analyst Makes Bold Prediction The recent resurgence in Bitcoin’s price has sparked optimism among investors and analysts alike. As attention turns to May, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin’s sideways movement materializes and if the effects of the halving event truly dissipate. With cautious optimism prevailing, the current price range between $60,000 and $71,000 could become a pivotal zone for future price dynamics, ushering in a new era of prosperity in the cryptocurrency markets. Featured image from Pxfuel, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has a new countdown after the halving as the days of a sub-$100,000 BTC price are "numbered," new analysis suggests.
Bitcoin miners have struck a proverbial goldmine, reaping an astonishing $107 million in profits, according to data from Glassnode, a leading analytics platform. This unprecedented windfall, amassed on April 20th, underscores a significant shift in the revenue dynamics of Bitcoin mining operations. Related Reading: Will Celestia (TIA) Hit $130? Analyst Makes Bold Prediction The meteoric rise in transaction fees serves as a bellwether for the evolving economic landscape of Bitcoin mining. As the network adapts to new market demands and technological advancements, transaction fees have emerged as a crucial revenue stream for miners. This trend is particularly noteworthy given the scheduled reductions in block rewards, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of Bitcoin’s economic model. According to glassnode, affected by the Runes minting activity, on April 20, Bitcoin miner revenue reached US$106.7 million, of which 75.444% came from network transaction fees, both reaching record highs. https://t.co/lVSyqn1UaE pic.twitter.com/xjkkTor2I9 — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 21, 2024 Runes-Fueled Minting Spree Boosts Miner Revenue Driving this surge in profitability is a recent minting spree focused on Runes, a pivotal development that has left a tangible mark on the network’s dynamics. Reports indicate that a staggering 75% of the total profits stemmed from transaction fees, marking a new pinnacle in the distribution of revenue among BTC miners. Runes is similar to Ordinals; they both let users permanently store data directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, like an inscription etched in stone. But there’s a key distinction in what they store: Ordinals are one-of-a-kind digital collectibles, similar to fancy trading cards. Runes, on the other hand, are designed to act more like meme coins, those widely tradable and often humorous tokens that have been a recent craze in the crypto world. BTCUSD trading at $66,144 on the weekly chart: TradingView.com This paradigm shift in income composition underscores the growing importance of transaction fees as a vital income source, especially as block rewards face planned reductions in the context of Bitcoin’s halving system. This financial triumph comes amidst ongoing debates surrounding the sustainability and profitability of mining activities. With escalating energy demands and mounting regulatory scrutiny, the viability of mining operations has been called into question. However, the recent data paints a reassuring picture of the economic vitality of Bitcoin mining, demonstrating its resilience in the face of external pressures. Implications For Bitcoin’s Future Beyond the immediate financial gains, the surge in transaction fees holds profound implications for the future trajectory of Bitcoin. The unprecedented collection of fees signifies robust network activity and user engagement, indicating strong demand and utilization of the Bitcoin blockchain. This bodes well for the long-term sustainability and development of Bitcoin as a prominent digital currency, bolstering confidence among stakeholders and enthusiasts alike. Related Reading: Ethereum Fueled Up: Will 320 Million USDT Inflow Ignite Price Surge? Featured image from VistaCreate, chart from TradingView
After the halving, fees spiked to $146 for a medium-priority transaction and $170 for a high-priority transaction.