Coin Metrics rebuilt ETH Standard flows, but an outflow trading claim still needs the data available at the decision time.
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Glassnode estimated the probability of an additional quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting fell from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2.
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A 2.2% decline from Tuesday’s captured quote would reach Seyffart’s average holder cost estimate; yields and ETF flows will help show what follows.
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Spot and perpetual selling deepened while futures positioning stayed large enough to amplify the next move.
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Coinbase's September workshop shows signature choices and operational migration must advance together across exchanges, wallets and key-management systems.
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The baseline is already hostile. A CPI, central-bank or oil deviation could decide whether Bitcoin breaks its current range.
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Glassnode’s seven-day measure fell to 7 basis points from 16 at August’s peak, while overhead holdings barely moved.
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ETF inflows offer support ahead of the BOJ’s September 17–18 meeting, while futures-led gains leave Bitcoin exposed if demand weakens.
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Glassnode’s September 8 report shows richer calls and easing net spot selling, while stronger ETF inflows complicate the demand picture.
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A live reading is already 18, showing why institutions need more than one decentralization metric.
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VanEck recorded eight active signals on Aug. 12, while comparable clusters trailed Bitcoin’s baseline at 90 and 180 days.
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The S&P 500 reached 7,798.99 while Bitcoin hovered above a cost-basis fault line amid record-low spot activity.
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Glassnode’s latest on-chain work suggests patient buyers are still absorbing Bitcoin despite the market’s weaker price action.
Ethereum supply-in-loss data is back near a historically painful zone, leaving traders watching whether ETH is forming a base or extending capitulation.
Glassnode data shows broad-based buying across retail and whale cohorts, with the Accumulation Trend Score reaching its strongest level of the current drawdown.
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s rebound from the $60,000 area looks more like stabilization than a confirmed trend reversal as capital flows and trading activity remain weak.
Large Bitcoin holders have reportedly moved more than 11,000 BTC off exchanges as traders revisit a seller-exhaustion setup.
As the XRP price attempts to rebound from its recent lows, Glassnode has shared key on-chain metrics pointing to weakening momentum and “intense capitulation.” Related Reading: Bitmine Makes Largest Ethereum Purchase Of 2026 As Tom Lee Dismisses Market Selloff XRP Profit/Loss Ratio Falls To Lowest Levels Since 2024 On Tuesday, market intelligence platform Glassnode revealed that XRP is flashing warning signals, with key on-chain indicators pointing to widespread capitulation and decreasing network activity. In an X post, Glassnode researchers highlighted that the 90-day moving average (MA) of the altcoin’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to an area historically associated with deeper downtrends and periods of market capitulation. Notably, the key metric has dropped to 0.38, its lowest level since 2024, meaning that for every dollar of losses realized in the market, only 38 cents in profit are being taken. This marks a significant reversal from the 2025 peak, when the ratio surged to 50, indicating profit-takers outpaced loss-sellers by a factor of 50. That dynamic has now fully inverted, Glassnode affirmed, adding that a ratio this low suggests that most participants moving XRP are exiting their positions at a loss, which is “a hallmark of intense capitulation.” In addition, the blockchain analytics firm pointed out that network activity has declined significantly. According to the data, the 90-day average of total transaction fees paid on the XRP network has fallen from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 XRP, representing a 91.5% drop. “A drop of this magnitude is not a fee market adjustment. It reflects a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand on the network since the speculative peak,” Glassnode affirmed. The drop in these indicators suggests investor confidence has weakened, and the market has shifted to reduced speculative appetite with subdued participation. Is XRP’s Bottom Near? Over the past two weeks, XRP’s price has retraced nearly 15%, falling to its lowest levels since November 2024. Amid this performance, analyst ChartNerd noted that the cryptocurrency’s bear markets have historically lasted 400-790 days with 85-96% drops. Currently, the altcoin has only corrected for approximately 350 days, with a 71% retracement from the July highs. However, “the duration and % depth of these bears are diminishing over time; therefore, the territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching,” he stated. He also observed that the altcoin closed below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, which could also signal that the bottom may be on the horizon. As he explained, during prior cycles, a structural bottom formed between 8 and 29 weeks after the first weekly close below this SMA, suggesting that XRP could begin forming its bottom in the coming months, if history repeats. Meanwhile, market watcher Ali Martinez noted that XRP could be mirroring the same pattern it has repeated since 2018, as it may be approaching its largest buying zone in the last eight years. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rise May Have Little To Do With The Latest Purchase News “For nearly a decade, every touch of this rising trendline has marked a major turning point, sending XRP back toward the $3 resistance,” the analyst stated, adding that the cryptocurrency is currently approaching this trendline again, with support sitting between the $0.70 and $0.90 levels. If this zone holds, a rally back to $3 becomes “a realistic scenario.” Moreover, if XRP finally breaks above the eight-year resistance, around $3.30, the next macro target may be between $8 and $13, the analyst concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
The lead research analyst at Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin supply clustered at the top levels might have to shift down before a sustained recovery can take shape. Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Shows Massive Supply Above $80,000 In a new post on X, Glassnode lead research analyst CryptoVizArt has discussed how the Bitcoin supply is looking from the perspective of the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). The CBD is an on-chain indicator that tells us about the amount of BTC that was purchased at each of the levels that the cryptocurrency has visited during its history. Below is the chart for the metric shared by CryptoVizArt. Related Reading: Dogecoin Tests Channel Floor Again: Breakdown Or Rebound? As is visible in the graph, there is a decent amount of Bitcoin supply that was purchased at recent price levels. This supply cluster has built up as the asset has consolidated in the region since February. While this cluster isn’t small, it’s still less dense than some other zones. From the chart, it’s apparent that there are regions above $80,000 that host the break-even level of an extreme amount of supply approaching the 495,000 BTC mark. These zones extend up to the top levels from the 2025 bull market. Earlier, the levels near $126,000 used to be even more dense, but as the digital asset sector has gone through this downturn, supply has changed hands at lower levels, weakening these clusters. However, the zones continue to be dominant relative to the clusters below $80,000. “The Cost Basis Distribution heatmap shows a dense supply cluster in the $80k–$126k range, representing coins still held by buyers near cycle highs,” noted the analyst. Naturally, all of these holders are in a notable amount of unrealized loss right now. Generally, underwater investors act as an impediment to price surges as they sell near their break-even. This effect could in part be what capped out the recovery rally in May. CryptoVizArt explained: For a sustained recovery to take shape, this supply needs to gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels. As that wall softens, the overhang pressure eases and demand has room to build conviction. In the past, the process has often taken some time to occur for Bitcoin. “This transition can be achieved through deeper correction and/or bear market continuation,” said the Glassnode researcher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Back At $63,000 Despite 1.2 Million BTC Absorption It now remains to be seen how the CBD will develop for Bitcoin in the near future, particularly in terms of whether the top buyers finally capitulate to new investors. BTC Price Bitcoin plummeted to $59,000 last week, but the asset opened on Monday with some recovery as its price is now floating around $63,200. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s long-term security model is once again under the spotlight following new data from Glassnode suggesting that the network could face theoretical risks in a future dominated by quantum computing. The report shows that a significant portion of BTC’s circulating supply could be vulnerable in the future if quantum technology advances to the point where it can break current cryptographic protections. Glassnode’s Data Reveals The Scale Of Potential Future Exposure New data from Glassnode, an on-chain data analytics platform, has shed light on a potential long-term change facing Bitcoin’s security model. Crypto trader Evans revealed on X that the analysis estimates that approximately 6.04 million BTC, nearly 30% of the total BTC supply, could theoretically be at risk from future quantum computing threats. Related Reading: More Bitcoin Is Moving Into The Hands Of Long-Term Investors Amid Sideways Price Performance This is because the public keys associated with those coins have already been exposed on-chain. However, what stands out even more is that roughly 4.12 million BTC of the risk is associated with address reuse and outdated custody methods that unnecessarily increase public-key exposure. In addition, the data also indicates that centralized exchanges collectively hold more than 1.6 million BTC in potentially exposed addresses. Comparing Current Volume Collapse To The 2023 Bear Market Bitcoin spot trading volumes have collapsed by approximately 81% since October 2025, pushing market activity back to levels typically associated with bear market conditions. A Verified Author for CryptoQuant, known as Darkfost, has pointed out that to find similarly low participation, one would have to look back to July 2023, highlighting just how sharply spot volumes have declined. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Surge Does Not Reflect Real Demand — Here’s Why Despite the broader slowdown, major exchanges like Binance continue to dominate the market with $36.4 billion in trading volume, and recorded $198.6 billion in October 2025. Therefore, volumes are nearly 5 times lower in the current market, representing 81% decline, and Binance is far from an isolated case. Meanwhile, Gate.io has also seen a massive 79.6% drop in volumes, and Bybit is down 66%. This development primarily reflects a macro environment that has been unfavorable for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The persistently rising inflationary pressures and the prolonged US-Iran tensions have pushed investors toward preferred commodities and traditional equity indices over crypto markets. According to Darkfost, this dynamic can also be interpreted constructively. The sharp decline in trading activity shows that the selling pressure behind the current retracement is gradually losing momentum. Historically, prolonged periods of weak spot volume have often coincided with the later stages of market corrections, when selling pressure begins to exhaust itself, and speculative excess is flushed from the system. Notably, a similar collapse in trading activity occurred near the end of the 2023 bear market before volatility returned and the bullish trend recovered. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Analysts warn of a range trap as underwater bitcoin buyers build resistance near $79,000 and tensions flare again in the Middle East.
RHODL ratio suggests market conditions resemble cycle corrections rather than late-stage tops, as long-term holders regain dominance.
Despite a surge in short positioning, bitcoin has climbed toward $75,000, with past episodes of negative funding rates often aligning with local market bottoms.
Bitcoin has climbed back toward a key on-chain resistance zone, but Glassnode says the move still looks more like a fragile rebound than the start of a fully convincing trend shift. In its latest The Week On-chain report, the analytics firm said Bitcoin was trading near $74,000, roughly 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78,100, a level it framed as the market’s most important near-term test. Glassnode’s central argument is that the market has improved enough to keep the rally alive, but not enough to remove the structural risks overhead. Spot demand has recovered, ETF flows have turned positive again, and institutional exposure is beginning to rebuild. Even so, profit-taking is rising, derivatives positioning remains cautious, and participation is still uneven across venues and investor groups. Glassnode Flags A Fragile Bitcoin Rally Near Major Resistance The report said Bitcoin “has gradually trended higher, now trading near $74k, approximately 5.2% below the True Market Mean, tracing the cost basis of active supply.” It added that while price has not yet broken above that threshold and held it, “the probability of a spike toward and potentially above it remains considerable in the mid-term.” That leaves the market in an awkward position: close enough to resistance for traders to focus on a breakout, but not yet strong enough to suggest the ceiling has truly given way. One of the main reasons Glassnode stops short of endorsing the move outright is the behavior of short-term holders. The firm highlighted the share of short-term holder supply in profit, which measures how much recently acquired supply is sitting on unrealized gains. Historically, local tops in bear market rallies have often formed as that figure approaches its statistical mean of around 54.2%. It currently stands at 43.2%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Alert: German State Could Take Control of Another 57,000 BTC That, according to the report, means the rally may still have some room to run before it reaches a more typical exhaustion zone. But it is also a reminder that Bitcoin is moving into an area where distribution pressure tends to build, especially if newer market participants start using strength to de-risk. Glassnode sees that process already underway in broader realized profit-taking metrics. The 30-day EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio now sits at 1.16, a reading above 1 that signals realized profits are outpacing realized losses. In the firm’s words, “the current reading of 1.16 confirms that investors are broadly seizing the present rally as an opportunity to exit positions at breakeven or capture thin profit margins. While this is not an immediate reversal signal, a sharp spike in this ratio during a bear market rally has historically been a cautionary indicator of distribution rather than genuine demand recovery.” That distinction runs through the entire report. The rebound is real, Glassnode suggests, but the character of the move still matters. For the rally to evolve into something more durable, the market would need to absorb selling pressure and establish support above $78,100, not merely trade up to it. Off-chain data tells a similar story. Spot cumulative volume delta has improved sharply since February’s capitulation, but the demand profile remains selective. Binance-led buying has outpaced Coinbase, suggesting stronger participation from offshore and retail-driven segments than from the institutional cohort often associated with Coinbase flows. Glassnode called that divergence notable, arguing that sustained rallies typically need broader engagement from both sides of the market. Institutional proxies have also improved, albeit cautiously. CME futures open interest has started rebuilding from local lows, and US spot ETF assets under management have turned higher after a stretch of outflows. Still, neither series has returned to previous highs, which Glassnode said points to “a more cautious re-engagement, rather than a full risk-on shift.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says In derivatives, the firm found little evidence of strong directional conviction. Funding rates remain broadly balanced, implied volatility has compressed across the curve, and 25-delta skew continues to favor puts over calls, even if the tilt has softened from more defensive extremes. In plain terms, traders have reduced some of their stress hedging, but they have not rotated aggressively into upside exposure either. Hyperliquid liquidation data reinforces that picture of a reactive market. Dense long liquidations sit between $63,000 and $65,000, while short liquidation clusters are concentrated around $74,000 to $76,000. Recent price action has repeatedly interacted with those zones, suggesting flows and liquidation mechanics are still shaping the range more than strong underlying conviction. Glassnode also flagged dealer positioning as a key near-term market structure factor. A large pocket of negative gamma between $74,000 and $76,000 could amplify moves if spot continues higher, turning what might look like resistance into an area where hedging flows accelerate price. Even so, the report stops well short of declaring a breakout regime. The result is a market that looks healthier than it did during the February washout, but still far from settled. Bitcoin bulls may have a clear target in $78,000, yet Glassnode’s message is that reclaiming it will require more than momentum alone. It will take sustained inflows, deeper institutional participation, and enough real demand to absorb the profit-taking now building into strength. At press time, BTC traded at $74,905. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Slower post-halving gains reflect bitcoin’s shift toward a more mature asset.
The Bitcoin price surged past $73,000 in the past week, indicating an improved investor risk appetite despite the overwhelming sentiment. This recent rally has been attributed to several factors, but most notably the announcement of a temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict. With the rise in the spot market, other pricing models are emerging with key implications for future market movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surges To $72,000, But Remains Stuck In Key Supply Zone Bitcoin Maintains Key Support At $54K – Details Prominent analytics firm Glassnode shared an update on the important on-chain price models following the latest market rally. Notably, these models track the average acquisition costs of different cohorts, providing a framework for identifying support, resistance, and overall market health. As Bitcoin’s spot price rose to $71,800, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis was valued at $81,300, representing the average purchase price of recent market entrants over the last 155 days. Historically, this level has served as a key sentiment gauge, as short-term holders are the most reactive investor cohort. With prices below this level, short-term investors are largely underwater and are likely to increase sell pressure on potential rebounds, thus forming a key market resistance level. Similarly, the Active Investors Mean, positioned at $85,000, remains significantly above the current spot price. This metric reflects the average cost basis of economically active market participants and often serves as a proxy for broader market confidence. With Bitcoin still significantly away from this level, the majority of active capital is holding at a loss, resulting in heavy market caution. Another critical price metric highlighted by Glassnode is the True Market Mean at $78,000, which represents a more refined estimate of the market’s fair value by adjusting for lost coins and inactive supply. Trading below this level indicates that Bitcoin remains in a discount zone relative to its adjusted economic baseline. However, the Realized Price, currently at $54,200, continues to provide strong structural support on the macro scale. This level reflects the average on-chain acquisition price of all circulating Bitcoin and typically represents the market capitulation threshold. With spot price holding well above this threshold, the long-term bullish structure remains intact despite the recent prolonged correction. Related Reading: Capital Is Rotating From Bitcoin To Ethereum – On-Chain Data Shows It Is Not Over Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $72,700, up 10% over the last week. According to Glassnode’s analysis, the next critical resistance level lies around $78,000, breaking past which could signal a solid bullish recovery. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview
A ton of BTC was recently traded below $70,000 in a sign of strong dip demand.
Bitcoin remains stuck below $70K as weak conviction and macro uncertainty weigh on markets, with analysts flagging a potential short squeeze.
Glassnode data shows distribution across cohorts as BTC falls below $67,000, with whales remaining largely neutral.
The Bitcoin market remains subject to high uncertainty, with bearish sentiments at heightened levels. In the last week, the premier cryptocurrency attempted another failed breakout as prices faced stiff resistance at the $75,000 level. With Bitcoin now back to around $70,000, Glassnode data on the options market shows that traders are pushing for more downside protection alongside expectations of low market volatility. Related Reading: Pundit Shares Everything To Understand About Bitcoin, ‘This Cycle IS Different’ Bitcoin Open Interest Hits New ATH – What Does It Mean? In an X post on March 20, Glassnode provides an update on the Bitcoin options market covering developments on positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiments. In terms of positioning, the analytics platform reported that Bitcoin options Open Interest (OI) reached a new all-time high value ahead of the expected expiry order on Friday. While a rise in OI typically represents an increase in market participation, Glassnode analysts explain that this recent positioning spike may still be indicative of short-term hedging flows. However, the after-effects of quarterly expiry on March 27 would provide more clarity on the recent positioning spike and the long-term sentiment. Meanwhile, the 1-week Implied Volatility (IV) declined from 70% to 53%, while options with longer maturities are also down by ~10 vols. This indicates that options are anticipating less dramatic price swings, despite the unstable macro environment. Related Reading: Binance Leads XRP Whale Exodus As 530M Tokens Exit In Single-Day Surge Bitcoin Put Options In Demand As Traders Hedge Against Price Fall According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin Options Skew, which measures the demand difference between put options (bearish protection) and call options (bullish bets), has stabilized. However, Bitcoin’s rejection at $75,000 has pushed the 25 Delta Skew into the 15-20% range, indicating increased put option demand. This development suggests a rise in market caution as options traders are paying a premium to protect against any potential downside. This creeping market fear is further confirmed by the 24-hour taker flow chart, which shows that options traders’ positioning has now turned defensive. Puts Bought activity is dominating the flows chart with a 30.7% share, while Calls Bought accounts for around 20.9%. Meanwhile, the Put/Call Ratio had also indicated a potential rejection at $75,000. Put actions dominated flows activity above $72,000, indicating that traders lacked belief in the breakout. Following the pullback, traders attempted to buy the dip with a spike in call options, but it was short-lived. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $70,668 following a minor 0.33% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 17.30% and is now valued at $36.67 billion. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview