On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Loss has spiked to its highest level since November 2022 as investors have capitulated after the price crash. Bitcoin Realized Loss Has Hit A Value Of $889 Million In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that investors on the network are ‘realizing’ with their transactions. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold to see at what price it changed hands before this. If the previous selling price was greater than the latest spot price for any token, then its sale is considered to be resulting in some loss realization. The exact degree of loss involved in the transaction is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss sums up this value for all loss transfers to find the total for the network. A counterpart indicator called the Realized Profit deals with the transactions of the opposite type (that is, those with a cost basis lower than the latest selling value). Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Loss has witnessed a sharp spike recently, implying investors have participated in a notable amount of loss-taking. Something to note is that the version of the metric used by the analytics firm here is the “entity-adjusted” one, meaning that it only tracks transactions occurring between two different entities, rather than just two addresses. Glassnode defines an “entity” to be a cluster of addresses that it has determined to belong to the same owner. In the context of the Realized Loss, the entity-adjusted indicator filters out transactions occurring between the wallets of the same investor. These naturally never involve a true realization of loss (or profit), so removing them from the data provides a more accurate representation of the market. Applying for this filtration, the 7-day MA Realized Loss hit a peak value of $889 million on Wednesday. This is the highest single-day spike in the metric since November 2022, when the market crashed to the bear market bottom following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The latest investor capitulation has arrived as Bitcoin has been in freefall, with its price now breaking below the $70,000 level. It now remains to be seen whether the loss-taking will sustain or if investor panic will subside in the coming days. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken a blow of more than 21% over the past week that has taken its price to the $66,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum (ETH) has revisited yearly lows after losing the key $2,000 support, registering its worst performance in years. Some analysts forecasted another 15% drop if the trend continues but suggested that ETH could see a bullish end-of-year. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Future Comes Down To This One Question, Says Bitwise Ethereum Hits 17-Month Low Ethereum experienced a 15% correction on Monday, falling from $2,150 to $1,810. ETH’s performance followed Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the market’s pullback, which saw the flagship crypto drop to $76,000 for the first time since the post-election breakout started. As the retrace continued, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization dropped to its lowest level since November 2023, touching the $1,750 mark before recovering the $1,900 support. Some market watchers pointed out that Ethereum has been in a three-month downtrend, retracing around 53% since its December peak. Trader Crypto Rand noted that the King of Altcoins has 20 days “to turn green,” or “it will be the first time since 2018 that ETH has experienced 4 x months of red in a row.” That year, ETH spent seven consecutive months recording double-digit losses, losing approximately 80% of its value from May until November. CoinGlass data shows that March tends to be a favorable month for the cryptocurrency, with an average 20% return since 2016. In 2024, the cryptocurrency closed the month with 9.33% gains, following a strong 46% performance in February. However, market sentiment has declined after back-to-back negative performances this year, with a 1.98% and 31.95% decline in January and February, respectively. The cryptocurrency registers a 15.12% loss Month-to-Date (MTD) and could see its worst Q1 close since 2018 at current levels. As a result, Ethereum must close this month above the $2,237 mark to prevent its second-worst historical performance. ETH Drop To $1,600 Coming? Some market watchers highlighted that the cryptocurrency’s current performance reached FTX-crash levels, with sentiment leaning towards a deeper correction. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted that Ethereum could see another 15% correction now that the $2,000 support has been lost. According to the post, “there’s a good chance ETH will retest the $1.6K-$1.8K level” as the “manipulation phase is ongoing.” The analyst suggested a potential Power of Three (Po3) pattern on ETH’s chart, which divides the price cycle into three distinctive phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. The accumulation phase consists of a consolidation near the recent high after a strong price performance. In the manipulation phase, a token’s price falls below the accumulation phase’s support level and trades within a range below the lost zone. Meanwhile, the distribution phase sees a strong price breakout to build momentum and drive participants to enter the market. Related Reading: XRP Flirts With A Daily Range Breakdown – Price Must Hold Above $2 Level Ted also stated that ETH’s current performance “feels like it’s trading like the 2016-17 cycle.” At the time, Ethereum consolidated for around a year and dropped below the range’s key support level for a few weeks before surging to new highs. ETH has been “consolidating for a year now and recently broke below a key support level,” suggesting that the latter half of 2025 could be bullish for the cryptocurrency if history repeats. As of this writing, Ethereum trades at $1,947, a 4.47% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com