Fidelity Digital Assets argues Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted enough that the familiar four-year boom-bust pattern and the brutal 80% drawdowns that often followed, may no longer be the default outcome. In a Feb. 24 research note titled “Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?” research analyst Zack Wainwright frames the call around a simple observation: Bitcoin is now a very different-sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs Bitcoin’s market cap at an all-time high of roughly $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, alongside signs of deeper liquidity and a steadier volatility regime than prior cycles. “As bitcoin matures, price behavior is diverging from previous cycles. Volatility decreasing even as price reached new highs above $126,000.” Bitcoin Demand Is Being Re-Shaped Fidelity’s volatility argument leans on one-year realized volatility and how it behaved around cycle peaks. In prior cycles, the pattern was broadly consistent: volatility would compress into new lows ahead of a major upside move toward new highs, then expand as the cycle overheated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says This time, Fidelity says the compression is arriving sooner after the peak. The note points to 17 new all-time lows in one-year realized volatility logged in January 2026—just months after Bitcoin notched fresh all-time highs in October 2025—calling it a meaningful divergence from the cadence of earlier cycles. The team attributes part of that dampening to scale: Bitcoin is about twice the market cap it was at the 2021 peak, roughly 10x 2017’s peak, and over 200x 2013’s. The second pillar is who is holding supply, and how sticky that demand appears. Fidelity highlights a cohort of 49 public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC each, with combined holdings above 1 million BTC, over 5% of circulating supply. It also notes that, since Q1 2020, this group increased holdings quarter-over-quarter in every quarter except Q2 2022, when Tesla sold a large portion of its position. On the ETF side, Fidelity writes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC as of Jan. 30, 2026, about 6.4% of circulating supply. The note adds that the category leader surpassed $75 billion in assets under management in under two years, contrasting that pace with gold’s flagship ETF, GLD, which took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. Together, Fidelity says public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of circulating supply, with most of the growth coming after 2023—a demand shift the team views as structurally important for drawdowns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases Fidelity also argues the cycle has looked “notably stable” across several on-chain and issuance-linked measures. Using a profit-window framework, when addresses in profit first exceed 95% through the last time they remain above 95%, the note says MVRV has stayed roughly around two times realized value through most of the bull market, rather than spiking toward four-to-six times as in earlier cycles. The report flags a counterfactual to illustrate the point: if market cap reached four times realized cap in this cycle, it would imply roughly a $4.5 trillion market cap and about $225,000 per BTC as of Feb. 2, 2026. It also notes the Puell Multiple has stayed close to one, signaling daily issuance value hasn’t meaningfully deviated from its one-year average. Fidelity’s new “Profit to Volatility Ratio” is where the drawdown claim becomes explicit. The team sets 0.01 as a stability line and says the ratio has stayed above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained period at those levels in Bitcoin’s history. Even with a February 2026 downturn that pushed BTC below $70,000, the ratio remained above the threshold. “A measurement above 0.01 can be considered very stable. Conversely, a measurement below 0.01 should be viewed with caution.” The implication, Fidelity suggests, is not that volatility disappears—but that the classic cycle-ending wipeouts may be less likely in a market increasingly shaped by institutional channels and a larger, more liquid base. If that regime holds, the next phase could look less like a blow-off top and more like a slower, more methodical repricing, higher over time, but with fewer cliff-edge resets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,677. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Fidelity Investments plans to launch its own Ethereum-based stablecoin, FIDD, as U.S. stablecoin regulation comes into focus.
The FIDD token will run on Ethereum, serve institutional and retail users, and comply with the new GENIUS Act’s reserve rules.
Fidelity Labs managing partner Parth Gargava says bitcoin may be transitioning away from its familiar, halving-linked four-year rhythm and into something closer to a “supercycle”, a regime that could keep prices elevated for longer and make drawdowns less severe, if structural demand continues to build. Speaking in Fidelity’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook for 2026 video, Gargava anchored the discussion in the cycle framework many market participants have used for years: peaks arriving roughly a year and a half after each halving. “Traditionally, what we have seen is Bitcoin has had this four-year cycle,” he said, adding that the pattern has been “highly correlated to Bitcoin’s halving events.” He pointed to the 2016 halving followed by a peak in December 2017 near $20,000, and the 2020 halving followed by another peak in 2021 about 18 months later. That history matters because it frames the debate around the most recent halving in April 2024. Gargava acknowledged the straightforward inference some investors make from prior cycles: “So maybe we are past that peak price.” But he positioned that view as only one side of the argument, highlighting a competing thesis that the market’s structure is evolving. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline “On the other side, you’re also seeing a lot of arguments around how we might have entered into a supercycle as opposed to what we have seen in the past four years,” Gargava said. “And what a super cycle really means is you might have more prolonged highs, longer highs, and shallower dips.” Gargava credited Fidelity Digital Assets’ research team for outlining what he called the “super cycle mechanism,” and suggested an analogy to the commodities market in the 2000s. The key point was not that bitcoin would mechanically copy commodities, but that a sustained, multi-year bid can alter how markets behave, extending expansions and compressing the depth of selloffs. JUST IN: $5 trillion Fidelity talks about how #Bitcoin might have entered a “supercycle” Bullish ???? pic.twitter.com/IUv3GVHwEW — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 12, 2026 Three Forces That Could Push Bitcoin Into A Supercycle He outlined three drivers he believes could underpin that kind of regime shift. First is “steady buy-in by institutions focused on ETFs,” which Gargava framed as persistent demand rather than episodic speculative bursts. In his telling, ETFs can function as a channel that keeps incremental capital flowing even when sentiment softens, potentially changing the market’s typical post-peak unwind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $92,000 As DOJ Subpoenas Escalate Trump-Powell Fight Second is policy. Gargava pointed to “pro-crypto policies” in the US as a supportive backdrop, implying that a friendlier regulatory stance could reduce headline risk and encourage broader participation from investors and intermediaries that previously stayed on the sidelines. Third is market maturation and changing correlations. “We’re also seeing how the crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and precious metals,” he said. The implication is that bitcoin’s trading behavior may be becoming less captive to traditional risk-asset moves and the simple “digital gold” narrative, an evolution that could matter for positioning, hedging, and macro sensitivity. Notably, Gargava did not claim the four-year cycle is definitively broken. Instead, he presented a live question for 2026: whether bitcoin continues to follow a post-halving path that culminates in a familiar, sharp boom-and-bust pattern, or whether structural forces: ETF-driven institutional demand, a more supportive US policy tone, and a maturing market profile support a longer, steadier expansion with “shallower dips.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,182. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
BlackRock has transferred a significant amount of BTC to the crypto exchange Coinbase, sparking concerns about a sell-off. This comes as the Bitcoin price continues to struggle to break above $90,000 successfully. Bitcoin Price At Risk as BlackRock Transfers BTC Arkham data shows that Blackrock deposited 2,201 BTC ($192.13 million) into Coinbase, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of further decline amid increasing selling pressure. The move followed the outflow recorded by BlackRock’s BTC ETF on December 26, with Bitcoin funds as a group seeing a net outflow of $275.88 million. Related Reading: Bitcoin News: Here’s How Much Was Liquidated In The Crypto Market In 2025 These Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a seven-day outflow streak, which also prompted BlackRock to deposit 6,174.39 BTC last week, likely to offload these coins and redeem shares of its BTC fund. The Bitcoin price has struggled to break above $90,000 amid these outflows from the BTC funds. Notably, the Bitcoin price had broken above $90,000 on December 28 but quickly lost those gains yesterday as BlackRock moved the coins to Coinbase. Crypto pundit Martini claimed that BlackRock wasn’t the only one putting significant selling pressure on the flagship crypto. He alleged that Binance, Wintermute, Coinbase, and Fidelity also sold a significant amount of BTC, collectively dumping $3.5 billion yesterday. Crypto pundit Bull Theory claimed that there was a weekend manipulation as the Bitcoin price pumped $3,000 and broke $90,000, liquidating $103 million worth of shorts this Sunday. He then noted that on Monday morning, BTC dumped $2,700 and liquidated $40 million worth of longs, erasing its entire pump in the process. With the current price action, BTC is heading for a red yearly close, as it is currently down over 6% year-to-date (YTD). BTC Could Bottom Out Soon Against Other Major Assets In an X post, crypto analyst Kevin Capital stated that most of the data continues to become more favorable for the Bitcoin price, putting in a bottom against the equity markets and gold in the coming weeks. He added that the data also points to the flagship crypto outperforming these assets. The analyst stated that this was based on just factual data and not emotions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bear Market, And This Data Backs It Up The Bitcoin price had notably outperformed these major assets at the start of the year but has since fallen behind, following the October 10 crypto crash. Gold is up 66% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 17% since the start of the year. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also predicted that BTC could soon rally, noting that the long-term holders have stopped selling for the first time since July 2025. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,300, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Fidelity’s global macro director, Jurien Timmer, has called the end of the latest bitcoin bull run, while highlighting gold’s continued bull market strength.
The firms have obtained conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to convert into national trust banks.
The goal of the upgrade is to enable Ethereum to handle the large transaction throughput from the layer-2 chains that use the blockchain as their base layer.
As the cryptocurrency ecosystem matures and evolves, a new narrative is gaining traction that positions XRP for an upcoming institutional-driven surge that could redefine market expectations. With momentum building around XRP exchange-traded funds, one prominent analyst now believes the asset could be on the verge of a rally so large it may outperform Bitcoin’s own ETF-driven surge. Why Analysts Believe XRP Is Poised For A Larger Upside Than Bitcoin XRP is entering its ETF chapter, and the scale of what’s coming could make Bitcoin look small. Crypto analyst Xfinancebull mentioned on X that early players like Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin, and Canary Funds are already live with their XRP products. Meanwhile, the real power players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and the other giants haven’t even filed for an XRP spot ETF yet, which shows this is just a warm-up. Related Reading: Here’s Why A Supply Shock Could Be Imminent For XRP The heavyweights haven’t even stepped into the arena, and the initial institutional capital is already flowing. Spot ETFs were highly beneficial for BTC, which triggered a trillion-dollar shockwave that attracted Wall Street institutions and momentum traders who couldn’t ignore the access. According to Xfinancebull, XRP is a different beast, with functional utility, real-world adoption, and banking infrastructure already built out across Japan and Asia. The capital that will soon flood into XRP via ETFs won’t just speculate, but it will stay. When a fraction of over $80 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) from these initial titans begins to rotate into XRP, the inflows could be significant. This is cold, hard math that is about to unlock high levels of liquidity and historically repeat the move on a larger scale. “The XRP spot ETF ignition is not coming, but it is already here. If you missed the Bitcoin momentum move, don’t miss this one,” Xfinancebull noted. An analyst known as RipBullWinkle has also highlighted that Bitcoin has leaked $151 million, while XRP led all inflows with $164 million. That’s not random, it’s institutions reallocating with intention into assets built for settlement and speed. When powerhouses like Franklin Templeton and Grayscale pull over $130 million into XRP on day one, it confirms where the institutional smart money is going. Market Stabilization Signals The Start Of A New Upward Leg Bitcoin and altcoins are reacting sharply to momentary declines after the brief pullback. TerraHaberTr has stated that BTC has reclaimed the $87,000 level, and if momentum continues at this pace, BTC will target $90,000 and $100,000 levels. On the altcoin side, the recovery is happening even faster, and altcoins that have experienced deep dips may start to gain strength. Related Reading: XRP Price Will Climb Above $10 When This Happens: Analyst Meanwhile, XRP is gaining traction as it pushes back above $2.20. If the move continues, XRP could reach the $3.00 region. Overall, opportunities have continued to emerge across major altcoins. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Also: Celestia’s Matcha Upgrade, Fidelity on Fusaka and World’s New Payroll Pilot.
On-chain analytics platform Lookonchain has provided insights into what may have contributed to the Solana price crash since October. The platform revealed that meme coin launchpad Pump.fun has sold a significant amount of SOL, cashing out almost $500 million since the start of October. Pump.fun Allegedly Dumps SOL Amid Solana Price Crash In an X post, Lookonchain suggested that Pump.fun has been selling SOL, as it appears that the meme coin launchpad has cashed out at least 436.5 million USDC since October 15. The on-chain analytics platform also stated that since October 15, the meme coin launchpad has deposited 436.5 million USDC into Kraken. Related Reading: Forget XRP, DFDV Exec Predicts Solana Price Is Headed For $10,000 Furthermore, Lookonchain revealed that between May 19, 2024, and August 12, 2025, Pump.fun sold a total of 4.19 million SOL ($757 million) at an average price of $181. Of that amount, 264,373 SOL was sold on-chain for $41.64 million, while 3.93 million SOL ($715.5 million) was deposited into Kraken. Pump.fun’s SOL sales are known to put significant selling pressure on the Solana price, thereby contributing to its crash. Notably, the Solana price has recorded one of the largest losses during this recent crypto market downtrend. SOL crashed from a high of around $220 in October to a low of $120 this month. This has occurred despite the launch of six spot Solana ETFs during this period. Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, 21Shares, VanEck, and Canary have all launched their SOL funds and have recorded notable flows since launch. SoSo Value data shows that these funds have recorded cumulative net inflows of $568.24 million since their respective listings. Despite this, the Solana price has been in a downtrend amid significant selling pressure from SOL whales. Thanks to the crash, SOL is now down over 28% year-to-date (YTD). The altcoin is also down over 28% in the last 30 days. Pump.fun Denies Recent SOL Sales A Pump.fun spokesperson, Sapijiju, has indicated that they haven’t sold any SOL recently and haven’t contributed to the Solana price crash. In an X post, he described Lookonchain’s post as complete misinformation, as they haven’t cashed any sum. He claimed they were not involved in the transactions between Kraken and Circle that the on-chain analytics platform referenced. Related Reading: Institutions Have Been Buying Solana Every Day For 2 Weeks, Is $300 Possible? Lookonchain had claimed that during the same period, Pump.fun allegedly cashed out 436.5 million USDC, 537.6 million USDC was sent from Kraken to Circle. Meanwhile, regarding the 436.5 million USDC, Sapijiju stated that what is happening is part of their treasury management, with the USDC part of funds from the PUMP ICO, and with plans to reinvest the sum into the business. At the time of writing, the Solana price is trading at around $138, up almost 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
The conversation around XRP has grown louder in recent months as the asset continues to gain traction through ecosystem growth, Spot XRP ETFs, and market interest. Despite this momentum, XRP still sits far below Bitcoin, the industry’s dominant cryptocurrency, when comparing total valuation. That gap raises a simple question: how high would the XRP price need to climb in order to actually flip Bitcoin? Data from MarketCapOf provides a direct, real-time look at what XRP’s price would be if it matched Bitcoin’s market capitalization today. The Market Cap Required To Flip Bitcoin Although it is currently going through a correction phase, Bitcoin has the largest presence in the crypto market by an overwhelming margin, and its market capitalization currently stands at roughly $1.84 trillion. This valuation ranks Bitcoin among the largest assets on the planet, surpassing many global corporations. Related Reading: Is It Time To Buy XRP? Analyst Says Get In Before This Switch Happens XRP, now trading around $2.14 at the time of writing, holds a market cap of approximately $128.7 billion. This means Bitcoin’s valuation is more than fourteen times larger than XRP’s. For XRP to flip Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency would need to rise to the same market capitalization that Bitcoin currently holds. Using the circulating supply of XRP, MarketCapOf calculates how much each XRP token would be worth if it matched Bitcoin’s market cap. Based on the latest data, XRP would need to trade at $30.61 for its total valuation to equal Bitcoin’s. This is the current “flippening price,” and it reflects the direct ratio between their two market caps. To reach the level of Bitcoin’s all-time high market cap of $2.485 trillion recorded on October 6, XRP would need to climb to about $41.26 per token. Breaking Down The Numbers The calculation highlights how far ahead Bitcoin still is. XRP sits at roughly seven percent of Bitcoin’s total valuation, meaning the asset would need to appreciate more than fourteen times from its current level to stand on equal footing. In simple terms, an investor holding 1,000 XRP would see their position shift from about $2,140 today to more than $30,000 if the token were priced at $30.61. Related Reading: Wondering Why The XRP Price Is Still Lagging Despite Record ETF Launch? Read This This comparison does not assume any change in circulating supply, tokenomics, or macro factors. It is a clean and direct valuation exercise based purely on market capitalization. However, even in its simplicity, it shows the scale of inflows required for XRP to close the gap and flip Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency rankings. Recent months have seen stronger activity in the Ripple ecosystem, most especially with new partnerships and acquisitions by Ripple. Added to this is the expanding conversation around Spot XRP ETFs, which many analysts believe could introduce significant liquidity if major issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale fully enter the space. The newest entrant is Bitwise, which launched its Spot XRP ETF just hours ago. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
The debut of Canary Capital’s spot-XRP ETF was one of the standout moments for the XRP community this year, bringing the token into the US ETF arena with strong opening volume and heavy attention from traders. Many holders went into launch week expecting that kind of headline event to push XRP into a sharp rally, especially after waiting years for regulated access in the United States. Instead, price action has stayed relatively muted, leaving a gap between expectations and reality. In a new 26-minute video shared on X, finance coach Coach JV tried to close that gap, breaking down why XRP has not exploded higher yet and what he believes holders should actually focus on. Coach JV Puts XRP In A Macroeconomic Perspective XRP’s Spot ETF has undoubtedly been a success, considering the amount of inflows it has had in its first two trading days. However, this has yet to translate into a surge in the price of XRP, as many traders had predicted and expected. Related Reading: Analyst Claims XRP Will Flip Bitcoin As These Developments Play Out Instead, XRP’s price action has been highlighted by a downtrend in recent days. A large part of this price downtrend is due to the wider decline in the crypto market. In his breakdown, Coach JV approached the XRP situation from a macroeconomic perspective. Rather than treating the ETF launch as an isolated trigger, he contextualized XRP’s current price behavior within the larger environment that financial markets are dealing with. A major theme of his outlook was the way people respond to hype. Coach JV stated plainly that the only way is to have discipline and a consistent plan. He did not build his message around chasing short-term excitement or reacting emotionally to price moves. His focus was on having a structure that an individual can stick to, regardless of whether XRP moves fast after the ETF launch or takes longer than many were expecting. Is $5 Next? I Don’t Know Coach JV also addressed one of the most common questions circulating in the community: whether $5 is the next big target for XRP now that an ETF is live. Related Reading: Analyst Breaks Down Why There Can’t Be 7 Million XRP Holders “Is $5 next? I don’t know; I’m not banking on that, I’m not waiting for it, I believe it’s going to happen at some point, and I have my exit strategy set up,” he said. That tone is now being echoed by others in the community who are pushing back against unrealistic targets. Zach Rector recently reminded his audience that XRP is not heading toward triple-digit prices this year, despite widespread speculation. Another commentator, known as Xoom on X, made a similar remark, saying XRP will not reach $100 or even $10 on ETF momentum alone. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.18, down by 3.5% in the past 24 hours. It is still too early to conclude how much long-term influence Spot XRP ETFs will have on price, especially with major issuers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale yet to launch their own offerings. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Fidelity, one of the world's biggest asset managers, has joined others in launching a spot SOL ETF, which includes a staking feature as well.
The firm’s staking-enabled Solana fund debuts as inflows into early SOL products accelerate.
A recently shared image on X showing the full lineup of pending XRP ETF filings prompted a blunt response from market commentator Robert Ledferd. Instead of offering predictions or excitement, he framed the moment as a straightforward test for the asset, noting that if XRP cannot climb into double-digit territory once this many ETFs are live, the market may end up treating it as a joke. The comment brings into question what price level actually represents meaningful progress once institutional money enters the picture for XRP. Why The Comment Landed Strongly Ledferd reacted to a screenshot listing nearly every major issuer preparing an XRP product, including firms such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Hashdex, and ARK Invest. The number of issuers alone means that XRP is entering a phase where institutional exposure will no longer be theoretical. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts XRP “Supply Crisis” To Trigger The Next Parabolic Rally The general consensus is that when these ETFs hit the market, XRP will receive massive institutional inflows comparable to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which, in turn, would be reflected in its price action. With this in mind, the pundit noted that XRP will be the “joke of the year” if these ETFs do not bring the cryptocurrency’s price to at least double digits.” Where XRP Needs To Trade For ETFs To Matter The numerical reality behind this expectation is straightforward. XRP is currently trading well below the $3 price level. Particularly, XRP is trading at $2.3, which means even a return to its $3.65 all-time high would require a price increase of about 40% from present levels. To reach actual double digits above $10, it means the price of XRP would need to rise more than 320% from its current price. Before XRP can target double digits, however, it must convincingly break and close above the region between $3 and $3.65. This region is a structural pivot because it is where previous rallies have lost momentum If ETF demand is genuine, the first sign of it will be whether XRP can push above the $3 line and hold it as support. Such a move would confirm that new inflows are not being neutralized by selling pressure and that the buying pressure is absorbing tokens at a faster rate than they are being distributed. Related Reading: Analyst Says Don’t Get Left Behind As Massive Liquidity Wave Is Coming For XRP XRP currently has a total circulating supply of 60 billion tokens. Therefore, a move to $4 implies a market cap of $240 billion. On the other hand, a move to $10 implies a valuation above $600 billion. A $600-billion valuation would place XRP behind only Bitcoin in terms of market cap rankings. These numbers matter because ETF impact is not measured by price alone but by how much capital is required to move an asset of this size. If Spot XRP ETFs begin attracting even a small fraction of the inflows seen in early Bitcoin ETF trading, the push to $4 becomes more realistic. At the time of writing, the first US Spot XRP-backed ETF has officially been launched by Canary Capital with ticker XRPC and began trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market on November 13, 2025. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
Visible buying from spot bitcoin ETPs and corporates has not translated into decisive upside, leaving traders to ask a blunt question: who is supplying the market? For Chris Kuiper, CFA, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, the answer is clear. “ ‘Who is selling?’ is the number one question I’ve been getting regarding bitcoin’s continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying,” he wrote on X on November 12. “I’m not unique in suggesting it’s the long-term holders (or HODLers).” Kuiper points to a simple but powerful on-chain gauge: the percentage of outstanding bitcoin that has not moved for at least one year. Glassnode’s “Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” rises in bear markets as coins age in place and investors sit on unrealized losses, then typically falls sharply when bull markets let those same investors exit into strength. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross Is Coming: Don’t Be Fooled By The Name “As you can see in the chart below, this line goes up during bear markets … and then usually a dramatic decline as these longer-term holders sell into the strength of a bull market,” Kuiper explained. What stands out to him today is that “with this cycle” the drawdown is “a relatively gentle slope down.” When bitcoin hit new highs earlier this year, the long-term-holder line “didn’t plunge,” he said. Instead, the market has been experiencing “a consistent slow bleed as the market has slowly moved sideways and up.” That slow bleed aligns with what Kuiper says he hears from the client side. “Bitcoin’s performance has recently lagged gold’s, even the S&P, and people are getting tired,” he wrote. Many investors, in his view, had been positioned for a textbook four-year cycle blow-off and were “waiting to sell into the historically strong seasonality of October and now November.” When October’s typical strength did not materialize and year-end approached, “long-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have.” Related Reading: Bitcoin “Arguably Undervalued,” Says Analytics Firm: Here’s Why The Glassnode chart shows how different this looks from past cycles. In the 2017–2018 run-up and subsequent reversal, the share of coins last active more than a year ago rolled over violently as price spiked and then collapsed. In the current cycle, the curve that represents long-term-holder supply has been trending lower since 2023, but without the vertical collapse normally associated with euphoric distribution. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant added another layer by reframing the same dynamic as “1-year inactive supply drawdown” in percentage points of total supply. “Here’s another way to visualize this,” he replied to Kuiper, “by looking at the 1-year inactive supply drawdown in terms of % of total Bitcoin supply.” Moreno quantified the last three major cycles. In 2017–2018, 1-year inactive supply declined by about 20 percentage points of total supply. In the 2021 cycle, the drawdown was around 10 percentage points. In the 2024–2025 period so far, the decline is again roughly 10 percentage points. The CryptoQuant chart, which uses an inverted scale, renders that as a purple wave that rises as more long-dormant coins are spent or reallocated. This means that long-term holders have already released a volume of supply comparable to the 2021 cycle, even if it is still well below the 2017–2018 peak. What differs is the tempo. Rather than a short burst of profit-taking at the top, the market has absorbed roughly a 10-percentage-point reduction in inactive supply over a longer, choppier price path. Kuiper welcomed the alternative visualization, replying simply: “Great chart!” He also made clear what he will be monitoring from here. “I will be watching this slope along with some other metrics to gauge seller exhaustion,” he said. For now, he argues that “the positive fundamental developments and lackluster price action continue to diverge.” At press time, BTC traded at $102,609. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
SOL lands on Fidelity's retail trading platform, Gemini launches the Solana edition of its credit card, and $188 emerges as the key support level to watch.
The total illiquid Bitcoin has reached a new high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. This refers to the BTC supply that is unlikely to hit the open, given the long-term holding of the investors who own these coins. Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Hits New High Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a new high of 14.3 million BTC, marking over 72% of the flagship’s circulating supply. This supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven’t moved their coins in over seven years, highlighting a strong conviction in the flagship crypto. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes Demand Zones In Higher Timeframes – Here’s The Target A large part of Bitcoin’s supply being in the hands of long-term holders is typically bullish, as it continuously reduces the amount of selling pressure on the coin. It could also lead to a potential supply shock, whereby demand outpaces supply. Asset manager Fidelity stated in a research report that this new demand for BTC, coupled with a fixed supply and decreasing issuance schedule, was what likely sparked the rally to a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Fidelity further predicted that this upward trend for the Bitcoin price could continue in the years ahead. Meanwhile, Fidelity highlighted two distinct cohorts that satisfy the threshold of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first is the BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago, while the second is public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s Strategy leads the latter as his company currently holds 638,985 BTC, which accounts for over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy hasn’t sold any coin since it began accumulating in 2020. Fidelity predicts that the combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 or over 28% of the crypto’s total supply of 21 million. The asset manager noted that BTC’s illiquid supply has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history. BTC’s Scarcity May Become Its “Focal Point” Fidelity predicts that over time, Bitcoin’s scarcity may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold BTC long term. They noted that the illiquid supply could rise drastically if nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment continues to evolve. Countries like the U.S. are already looking to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could create a massive supply shock. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Says Bitcoin Price At $100,000 Is Cheap, Reveals Real Cycle Peak Value On the other hand, Fidelity noted that there is the possibility of large amounts of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply being transferred. This could happen as long-term holders and public companies move to realize gains, possibly due to a significant price appreciation. The asset manager earlier mentioned that early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging as 80,000 ancient BTC were sold in July 2025. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Fidelity and Canary have moved a step closer in their bid to launch altcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. On Sept. 11, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) quietly added three spot ETF products, including Fidelity’s Solana ETF (FSOL), Canary’s HBAR ETF (HBR), and Canary’s XRP ETF (XRPC), to its platform. The […]
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The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, has notably been on a Bitcoin selling spree throughout this week, triggering a wave of sell-offs in the process. These sales have occurred due to the outflows that the asset manager has witnessed from its BTC ETF. BlackRock Dumps Around $500 Million In Bitcoin Arkham data shows that BlackRock has offloaded around $500 million in Bitcoin this week, with transfers to Coinbase, a move that indicates a move to sell these coins. The asset manager has sold these coins following outflows from its iShares Bitcoin ETF, which was the norm throughout this week. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Crypto Holdings Balloon As Bitcoin, Ethereum Reach For New ATHs — Here Are The Numbers SoSo Value data shows that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF first recorded a daily net outflow of $68.72 million on August 18. The fund then further saw net outflows of $220 million, $127.49 million, and $198.81 million on August 20, 21, and 22, respectively. Notably, the iShares Bitcoin ETF has accounted for most of the outflows, with the BTC ETFs as a group currently on a six-day streak of consecutive net outflows. These Bitcoin ETFs have seen total net outflows of almost $1.2 billion since August 15. Meanwhile, in just this week alone, over $1.1 billion has left these funds, sparking a bearish sentiment for the BTC price. Given BlackRock’s position as a major player in the Bitcoin ecosystem, outflows from its fund had sparked a wave of sell-offs. This led to a massive decline for the flagship crypto earlier in the week. The Bitcoin price had dropped to as low as $112,000 this week as BlackRock and other BTC investors took profit on their investments. This followed the flagship crypto’s rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $124,000 last week. However, BTC has now sharply rebounded on the back of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, in which he indicated that a rate cut might happen in September. An End To The BTC ETF Outflow Streak Notably, Powell’s speech was enough to spark fresh inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs on August 22, with BlackRock the only fund manager that recorded a net outflow on the day. Further data from SoSo Value shows that Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest recorded a daily inflow of $65.47 million, the most among the issuers on the day. Related Reading: Analyst Warns Investors To Avoid Bitcoin At All Cost As Price Is Going Below $60,000 Meanwhile, Fidelity, Van Eck, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Grayscale recorded inflows of $50.88 million, $26.41 million, $13.51 million, $12.70 million, and $6.42 million, respectively. However, BlackRock recorded an outflow of $198.81 million, which led to a daily net outflow of $23.15 million for the funds as a group. With the Bitcoin price rebounding, these funds, including BlackRock’s IBIT, could return to witnessing significant daily inflows from next week. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,900, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Metaplanet has announced that National Financial Services LLC (NFS), a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, is now its largest shareholder. In a July 15 disclosure, the firm revealed that NFS holds 84.4 million shares, equivalent to 12.9% of its total equity. Based on current valuations, this stake is worth approximately ¥121 billion or around $816 million. […]
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Fidelity unit National Financial Services now owns a 12.9% stake in bitcoin‑treasury company Metaplanet, a firm with a billion‑dollar plan to stockpile BTC.
Fidelity Digital Assets chose a single post on X to frame its latest research note: “Bitcoin is up ~63 % from its 2024 halving price with 27 % of this halving epoch completed. While past epochs saw triple-digit rallies, a new story may be unfolding: one of rising maturity, deeper adoption, and network resilience.” The tweet landed minutes after the firm released “2024 Bitcoin Halving: One Year Later,” authored by senior analyst Daniel Gray, who contends that the apparent lull in price action masks “a strengthening foundation.” Fidelity Flags Bitcoin’s Silent Surge “Bitcoin presents a nuanced narrative a year after its fourth halving, with signs pointing toward consolidation, network resilience, and growing institutional adoption,” Gray writes, adding that structural indicators “suggest a strengthening foundation.” While previous cycles delivered triple- and even quadruple-digit percentage gains by this stage, Gray argues the softer trajectory signals maturation: “History suggests that we would be well into the bull run at this point in the fifth epoch — but this cycle may be unfolding more cautiously.” From a market-share perspective the data are unequivocal. “Bitcoin’s market dominance excluding stablecoins has risen to just over 72.4% as of 11 May, a new eight-year high,” Gray notes, pointing out that Ether and Solana have surrendered ground even as “fragmentation on the long tail of assets has failed to produce a clear alternative leader.” Related Reading: Bitcoin From Pizza Day Era Still On The Move, Glassnode Reveals On-chain security metrics tell a similar story: “Bitcoin’s daily hash-rate rose above one zetta hash per second twice in April, reflecting continued investment in mining infrastructure despite a 60 percent collapse in hash price since the halving,” he observes. Spot-market behaviour has begun to echo those fundamentals. Bitcoin printed a record intraday high of $109,486 on 21 May before extending above $111,000 on so-called Pizza Day, holding near $110,600 at press time. The move has been underwritten by renewed demand from US spot ETFs, which drew $934.8 million of net subscriptions yesterday, May 22— the heaviest single-day haul in almost four weeks. Derivatives activity mirrors the trend: aggregate futures open interest reached a record $80 billion on May 23, up roughly 30% since the start of the month, according to CoinGlass data. Related Reading: Bitcoin Blasts To $111,867 All-Time High—Here’s What’s Driving The Surge Meanwhile, funding rates in most crypto exchanges are at the baseline or below it. “This is the least euphoric new all-time highs in the history of Bitcoin,” crypto analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) wrote via X. Gray cautions that investors should focus less on headline returns and more on the architecture taking shape beneath them. “Although returns have been more measured compared to previous cycles, structural metrics suggest a strengthening foundation. Overall, it appears Bitcoin is potentially maturing—something investors may find more notable than short-term price movement,” he writes. His closing assessment is blunt: “One year post-halving, Bitcoin’s price performance may seem muted, but its fundamentals appear stronger than ever … this may be a cycle that redefines Bitcoin’s role in a modern portfolio.” In other words, Fidelity’s message for would-be spectators is as clear as its headline: do not blink. At press time, BTC traded at $109,563. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Clients of the brokerage firm have increasingly voiced interest in a tax-advantaged way to trade and hold crypto, a person familiar with the matter, said.
Fidelity Investments has launched an individual retirement account (IRA) that lets individuals to invest in cryptocurrencies under its web3-focused subsidiary Fidelity Digital Assets.
A Fidelity stablecoin could fill the role of cash in the blockchain-based version of its U.S. dollar money market fund
Fidelity Investments is reportedly working on its own stablecoin to act as digital cash for its Ethereum-bound tokenized money market fund.
Cboe Exchange, which the ETF would be listed on, submitted a 19b-4 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.
Fidelity will maintain traditional book-entry records as the official ownership ledger, though the share transactions will also be recorded on Ethereum.