As Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $125,708 on Binance yesterday, BTC exchange inflows are starting to show signs of slowing down. As a result, crypto analysts are confident that the top cryptocurrency by market cap may be on the cusp of a healthy rally. Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Slump Amid New ATH According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ChainSpan, fresh on-chain data shows that the average amount of BTC inflows into exchanges such as Binance has decreased significantly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe-Like Ratio Shows Market In Wait-and-See Mode At $119,000 To recall, BTC sent to exchanges is usually seen as a warning sign, as it suggests that investors are attempting to sell their holdings at prevailing market prices. As a result, high inflows to exchanges typically create selling pressure on the underlying asset’s price. On the contrary, a decrease in exchange inflows indicates that BTC holders are opting to hold their assets in cold wallets. One of the cascading effects of lower exchange inflows is that it could lead to a “supply crunch” for BTC, which may lead to extraordinary price appreciation in a short duration. ChainSpan noted that as Bitcoin’s price surged from $108,000 to $125,000 over the past few weeks, the inflow average for the cryptocurrency has dropped from 0.55 to 0.48. This suggests that the current rally is being driven by organic market demand and holding behavior. Put simply, the increase in BTC’s price is not happening in tandem with a speculative selling wave, but rather on a foundation of reduced selling pressure. The analyst added: In the short term, this backdrop supports the upward trend. Yet, if large inflows into exchanges suddenly appear in the coming days, it could be a sign that major players are preparing to sell. In such a case, a short-term correction in the price may follow. The CryptoQuant analyst concluded by saying that although the current market conditions point toward low selling intent and strong demand for BTC, a sudden spike in exchange inflows could derail the digital asset’s momentum. As a result, investors should keep a close eye on the metric. Will BTC Surge Further In Q4? While BTC has already created a new ATH, some crypto analysts forecast that the digital asset may record more gains in the coming quarter. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC could peak sometime in mid-November. Related Reading: A Breakout To New Highs? Bitcoin’s Bullish Wave Eyes $130k As RSI Stays Firm Similarly, recent analysis by the team at The Bull Theory forecasts that BTC may surge as high as $143,000 in October. Historically, October has been one of the strongest months for BTC in terms of price appreciation. That said, BTC must first ensure it decisively breaks through the stiff resistance at $125,000 and defends the support level at $118,000. At press time, BTC trades at $125,189, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) steadily makes its way toward its current all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, optimism seems to be returning to the market. However, fresh data from Binance shows that BTC’s gains barely outweigh the risks posed by the digital asset’s volatility. Bitcoin Maintaining A Risk-Reward Balance According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, latest data from Binance – the world’s leading cryptocurrency trading platform in terms of liquidity – suggests that BTC is currently maintaining a risk-reward balance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs Specifically, the Sharpe-like ratio on Binance currently stands at 0.18, a figure very close to neutral territory. To explain, a Sharpe-like ratio measures how much return an investment generates relative to the risk it takes, similar to the Sharpe ratio but often using adjusted benchmarks or risk measures. When the Sharpe-like ratio is above 0.5, investing in Bitcoin becomes attractive since the potential returns outweigh the risks. On the contrary, a negative reading of the ratio discourages investors from taking risks, since volatility exceeds returns. During 2024, when the cryptocurrency market was largely weak and volatile, the Sharpe-like ratio spent most of the time in the negative territory. In contrast, the ratio reached elevated levels, signaling a strong uptrend, at the beginning of 2025. Currently, the Bitcoin market is trading between the two extremes – the market is neither dangerous nor in a powerful uptrend. Notably, the market appears to be in a phase of equilibrium and accumulation, as it trades close to $119,000. Arab Chain added: The latest figures show that the 30-day average return stands at just 0.26%, highlighting that the market is not delivering outsized gains; investors entering now are likely to see only modest profits relative to risk. Meanwhile, 30-day volatility is around 1.37%, which indicates a natural, moderate level of price fluctuation – not excessively calm but not alarmingly unstable either. BTC Needs A Catalyst For Next Leg Up The CryptoQuant analyst added that the BTC market is currently awaiting a bullish catalyst or strong inflows to extend its uptrend. However, if the Sharpe-like ratio falls below zero again, then a period of price correction may follow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most On the flipside, the ratio sustaining above 0.5 for several days – coupled with a price breakout above the $120,000 to $122,000 range on healthy volume – would suggest a fresh upward trend for the top cryptocurrency by market cap. Recent on-chain data hints toward a potential rally setup for BTC. Notably, the short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) recently recovered slightly to 0.995. That said, Bitcoin must defend the important $90,000 support level to avoid entering a new bear market. At press time, BTC trades at $118,788, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience over the last weekend as it defended the crucial $108,000 support level amid heightened whale selling on leading crypto exchanges around the world, including Binance. Bitcoin Survives September Whale Selling Pressure According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, September was marked by clear fluctuations between Bitcoin’s attempts to rally and exposure to selling pressure by whales and long-term holders. Binance trading volume data confirms this. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure As Exchange Inflows Stay Elevated – Will BTC Lose $112,000 Support? Arab Chain highlighted Binance’s Exchange Inflow Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which showed significant volatility throughout September. The indicator recorded multiple peaks at various points during the month, especially during mid-September. For the uninitiated, the Exchange CDD indicator tracks the movement of older, long-held Bitcoin when it flows into exchanges, weighting transactions by the age of the coins being spent. Spikes in this indicator signal that long-term holders or whales are moving coins with the intent to sell, which can create selling pressure. It is worth noting that despite the high peaks hit in September, the Exchange CDD indicator did not reach the extreme levels that it did in the previous months. However, the repeated spikes seen in September indicate inflows from older wallets into Binance. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that the multiple spikes in the Exchange CDD indicator reflect a state of caution among long-term investors. Some of these investors tried to test the market by moving their BTC to the exchange, without turning it into a mass sell-off event. Another point worth emphasizing is that the Exchange CDD spikes often coincided with price pullbacks in BTC, reinforcing the hypothesis that these flows likely represent short-term selling pressure. The analyst added: However, these pressures did not lead to a breakdown of key support levels around $108K, indicating the presence of corresponding buying liquidity that absorbed these moves. In conclusion, although some long-term investors showed willingness to take some profits, the absence of large waves of sell-offs shows that they have not fully lost confidence in the market yet. Similarly, Bitcoin’s price remaining above $108,000 despite repeated selling pressure shows that the market still possesses the capacity to absorb BTC inflows, confirming the robust underlying demand for the top digital asset. What Does October Hold For BTC? In a separate CryptoQuant post, analyst crypto sunmoon remarked that past data suggests that a surge in taker buy orders has often preceded major Bitcoin bull runs. However, currently, there are no signs of any increase in taker buy orders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs The analyst added that even if BTC witnesses some price increase, it is unlikely to record the same magnitude of gains as before. That said, improving Bitcoin network fundamentals offers some hope to the bulls. For instance, Bitcoin network transactions are once again approaching the important 600,000 transactions threshold, which could spark bullish momentum for the digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $113,200, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to remain range-bound between $110,000 – $115,000, data from crypto exchanges seems divided toward the leading cryptocurrency. While Binance traders are exhibiting a bullish stance, traders from other exchanges are still showing a degree of hesitation. Binance Traders Expecting Bitcoin Price Surge According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, fresh derivatives data from Binance is signaling shifting market dynamics – specifically, the recent BTC funding rate on Binance points toward traders taking a bullish stance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing? On the contrary, the BTC funding rate from other exchanges, such as OKX, Bybit, and Deribit, suggests that traders on these platforms are still uncertain about taking any directional bet. As of September 23, the BTC perpetual funding rate on Binance climbed to +0.0084%, suggesting that the long positions are dominant and traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their bullish bets. It is worth highlighting that the increase in funding rate is not an isolated event, as it suggests a positive seven-day change, indicating strengthening conviction among Binance traders. For comparison, the BTC funding rate on OKX is currently hovering at -0.0001%, while on Bybit it sits at 0.0015%. Finally, Deribit shows a funding rate of 0.0019%. The analyst added: This isn’t just a difference in numbers; it’s a difference in narrative. While funding rates on OKX and Bybit have actually decreased over the last seven days, Binance’s rate has climbed. For the uninitiated, funding rates can be viewed as a real-time gauge of trader sentiment in the perpetual swaps market. A strong positive rate like that of Binance, which diverges from the rest of the market, points toward aggressive bullish speculation. Is BTC About To Make A Move? In a separate CryptoQuant post, contributor XWIN Research Japan noted that Bitcoin’s implied volatility has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. Back then, the lull in the market was followed by an explosive rally of 325%, which propelled BTC from $29,000 to $124,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure As Exchange Inflows Stay Elevated – Will BTC Lose $112,000 Support? The analyst added that the total Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to deplete at a rapid pace, hitting new multi-year lows. Historically, such a fall in BTC exchange reserves has preceded supply squeezes, leading to a dramatic rise in demand. That said, the overall sentiment toward BTC appears to be cold at present. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index suggests that investors are fearful of entering the market, which may offer a good opportunity to accumulate BTC at current market prices. However, fresh data from BTC wallets confirms that new wallets – those that are less than a month old – are starting to buy the top digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $113,796, up 1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
According to data from Coinglass, the crypto market saw liquidations worth more than $1.6 billion over the past 24 hours, with the majority of them being long positions. Elevated exchange inflows threaten to crash Bitcoin (BTC) further below the important support level at $112,000. Bitcoin Tumbles, Will It Lose $112,000? Bitcoin fell from around $116,000 to as low as $111,800 earlier today, as the broader cryptocurrency market experienced volatility amid concerns about the US government shutdown. Prediction markets on Kalshi are currently giving a 70% chance of a shutdown in 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio Declines After Fed Cut, Setting Stage For $120,000 Test Commenting on today’s BTC price action, CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA remarked that at the end of August and early September, almost 65,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges, which coincided with a price recovery in the digital asset. The analyst shared the following chart, which shows BTC withdrawals from exchanges. Typically, large outflows from trading platforms indicate that investors are moving their holdings to personal wallets – reducing immediate selling pressure and signaling a bullish trend. That said, recent trends suggest that such outflows have weakened. Specifically, since September 20, exchange data shows that more investors are choosing to keep their coins on exchanges. PelinayPA shared another chart which shows BTC deposits to exchanges. Notably, between September 17 and 19, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged to nearly 40,000, while the price tumbled to $117,000. For the uninitiated, high BTC inflows to exchanges usually imply that investors are moving their coins from private wallets to platforms where they can be sold, signaling increased selling intent. This creates short-term bearish pressure on price, as higher supply on exchanges can outweigh demand. The CryptoQuant analyst added that during the rally between September 7 and 15, BTC outflows from exchanges exceeded inflows, supporting bullish momentum. However, inflows surpassed outflows after September 17, triggering strong selling pressure and pushing BTC down to $112,700. She concluded: Inflows remain high while outflows are relatively weak, indicating short-term downside pressure. If outflows increase again, signaling accumulation, BTC could rebound strongly from the $112K zone. Otherwise, further downside risk remains. Should BTC Holders Be Worried? Bitcoin’s fall to $112,000 should not come as a surprise. Recent on-chain data had already hinted that BTC could be in trouble due to a lack of whale participation in the recent rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Faces Supply Squeeze As Scarcity Index Turns Positive Again It is worth highlighting that BTC’s latest fall in price came shortly after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Although the flagship cryptocurrency fell, experts believe that it is still far from a real capitulation. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently predicted that BTC could top out at $208,000 during the ongoing market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $113,175, down 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Earlier this week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, providing the much-required impetus to the economy after a cycle of raising interest rates to keep inflation under check. A cut in interest rates is likely to benefit risk-on assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Bitcoin Supply Ratio Falls According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, the latest data from Binance shows that the interest rate cut has rekindled investors’ interest in BTC. Notably, the exchange supply ratio has declined to 0.0291, hinting that investors are choosing to withdraw their BTC from exchanges and hold it for the long-term instead of selling it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing? To support their analysis, Arab Chain shared the following chart, which shows a tumbling exchange supply ratio while the BTC price continues to shoot up. The analyst noted that the interest rate cut has increased risk appetite and improved liquidity in the market. This behavior shows that the Fed’s monetary policy will remain dovish for the near term, which could mitigate selling pressure on BTC for the time being. Low exchange supply is creating relative buying pressure, as Bitcoin’s stability above $115,000 further supports this trend. The analyst remarked that if BTC outflows from crypto exchanges continue at the current pace, then the digital asset may target the $120,000 resistance level. However, liquidity must continue to flow into digital assets, driven by the Fed’s decision. Arab Chain added: The continued decline in the Exchange Supply Ratio for Bitcoin, coupled with a rising price, reinforces the bullish scenario, especially if traditional markets stabilize after the Fed’s decision. Conversely, if the Exchange Supply Ratio turns upward again (if Bitcoin reenters exchanges), it could signal that investors are preparing to take profits at levels near 118K–120K. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto had similar thoughts. In an X post, the analyst shared the following chart, saying that BTC is currently stuck under the bearish fair value gap. A daily close above this gap – highlighted in red – could pave the way for a new high for BTC. Is BTC Facing A Supply Crunch? A declining exchange supply ratio further suggests that BTC may be approaching a bullish ‘supply crunch’ that could lead to significant price appreciation for the digital asset in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Binance Turns Bullish – But Is The Market Setting A Trap? Recently, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index recorded its first spike since June 2025, indicating potential upward price pressure on BTC. Meanwhile, BTC outflows from Binance continue at a rapid pace, further reducing the digital asset’s active circulating supply. That said, some concerns still linger, specifically due to the lack of participation of whales in recent BTC price action. At press time, BTC trades at $116,374, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
After hitting its latest all-time high of $4,956 on August 23 on Binance, Ethereum (ETH) has been trading in a tight range – oscillating between $4,200 to $4,500 – giving little clues about its next potential direction. However, recent exchange data suggest that a supply crunch may be nearing for ETH. Ethereum Price Stable Amid Exchange Supply Decline According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, during the period between August 16 to September 3, Ethereum’s Binance Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) saw a sharp decline. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Latest Rally Fueled By Large-Scale Binance Orders, Analyst Says Although ETH’s price has remained in the mid $4,000 range, its ESR tumbled from 0.041 to 0.037 – marking the biggest decline within the observed period – in a matter of just two weeks. It’s worth highlighting that ETH’s price has remained stable all this time, trading close to $4,400 at the end of the period. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, such price behavior can explain two things. First, it signals that investors are withdrawing from exchanges – including Binance – at an accelerated pace. Further, it also shows growing confidence among ETH holders as they opt for self-custody in cold wallets instead of keeping their holdings on exchanges. Arab Chain remarked that a combination of stable price, declining exchange supply, and healthy exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows confirms that sellable supply is dwindling while the demand for the digital asset remains strong. They added: Declines in ESR have historically preceded strong upward moves, as lower exchange liquidity limits sellers’ ability to push prices down. The current ESR levels have fallen back to pre-June figures, suggesting that the market has effectively “flushed out” previous profit-taking activity and is now reaccumulating supply into long-term wallets. ETH Entering A New Bull Cycle? The analyst concluded by saying that if ETH’s ESR continues to fall without a corresponding decline in price, then it would mean that the market is entering a new, institutional investor-led bull cycle. Three metrics in particular support this prediction. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees Contract Boom In 2025, Setting Stage For $5,000 Rally The ETH market has seen a recent drop in leverage, meaning there are fewer traders with speculative positioning. Further, most perpetual futures markets show neutral funding rates for ETH contracts. Finally, the on-chain activity by ETH whales has also subsided, meaning long-term holders are not selling. Also worth noting is that the Ethereum blockchain’s fundamentals continue to improve. Latest data shows that as much as 36 million ETH has been staked on the ETH network, further raising the possibility of an ensuing supply shock. Recently, Ethereum daily transactions also hit a 12-month high. Amid these bullish developments, seasoned industry experts are not shying away from giving ambitious ETH price predictions. At press time, ETH trades at $4,295, down 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Fresh data from Binance shows that Ethereum (ETH) average order size has been trending upward since late July 2025, signaling a structural shift in market dynamics. Analysts say the cryptocurrency’s recent rally is largely driven by Binance whales. Ethereum Rally Driven By Large-Scale Binance Orders According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, Ethereum whales are now dominating order flows on the Binance exchange. The analyst highlighted the average ETH order size on the platform as evidence. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Stays Strong As Exchange Reserves Keep Falling – Details Crazzyblockk shared the following chart showing different phases of average ETH order size on Binance. Retail-driven phases, highlighted in red, dominated much of 2023–24, when small orders drove up ETH’s price but left it vulnerable to corrections. These retail-driven periods were followed by neutral phases, shown in gray, which reflected indecision among ETH investors. This phase was characterized by fragmented participation and sideways trading behavior. Fast-forward to mid-2025, whale orders – highlighted in green – are firmly in control. Average order sizes have now surged past $3,000 per trade, signaling accumulation by institutional and large-scale investors. The CryptoQuant analyst noted that this whale dominance reflects renewed institutional confidence in ETH, aligning with its rapid price appreciation in recent months. Larger average orders suggest fewer fragmented trades and stronger directional conviction. Binance was chosen for the analysis not only as the world’s largest exchange but also because it is the “epicenter of ETH capital flow.” Crazzyblockk concluded: ETH’s latest rally isn’t just retail speculation – it’s being powered by whales on Binance. With large-scale players setting the tone, Ethereum’s market structure looks increasingly robust, and Binance remains the hub where these decisive flows shape price performance. Is ETH Getting Ready For A Rally? While Bitcoin (BTC) has tumbled 4.1% over the past 30 days, ETH is up 23.4% in the same period, indicating that large-scale investors may be in the middle of capital rotation from BTC to ETH over the past month. Related Reading: Ethereum Will ‘Likely 100x From Here,’ Says Joe Lubin Analysts predict ETH may have further room to grow for the remainder of 2025. Ethereum contracts are seeing a sharp resurgence in 2025, setting the stage for a potential rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $5,000 towards the end of the year. Ethereum fundamentals are also strengthening, with as much as 36 million ETH staked on the blockchain, raising the possibility of a supply crunch. That said, despite whale accumulation, some analysts caution that ETH could dip to $4,000. At press time, ETH trades at $4,316, down 2.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com