The much-anticipated launch of several Ethereum-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) failed to ignite a significant Ethereum (ETH) price rally. Despite considerable trading volumes and large inflows for the “newborn” ETFs on their first day, the Grayscale outflows have been too massive (once again) to propel the Ether price upwards. Ethereum ETFs Start Strong, But Grayscale … Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, shared via X (formerly Twitter), “DAY ONE in the books for Eth ETFs who did $1b in total volume, which is 23% of what the spot bitcoin ETFs did on their first day and ETHA did 25% of IBIT’s volume.” He also noted that “The gap between ETHE and The Newborn Eight is a healthy +$625m.” However, despite these healthy volumes, the price of Ethereum only increased marginally by 1% yesterday. At press time, ETH stood at $3,437, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) price declined by 1.6%, and other altcoins also faced downward pressure, dropping between 4% and 10%. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Stays Flat Despite Today’s ETF Debut: QCP Explains Why James Seyffart, another Bloomberg ETF expert, commented the first day of inflows, “First full day of flows for the ETHness stakes are in. The Ethereum ETFs took in $107 million. BlackRock’s ETHA led the way with $266.5 million followed by Bitwise’s ETHW with $204 million. Very solid first day.” Despite these positive inflows, the day was not without its challenges. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which transitioned from a traditional trust to a spot ETF, saw substantial outflows amounting to $484.9 million, representing about 5% of the fund’s value. Eric Balchunas commented on this movement, “Damn. That’s a lot. Like 5% of the fund. Not sure The Eight newbies can offset w inflows at this magnitude. On flip side maybe its for best to just get it over with fast, like ripping a band aid off.” The introduction of these ETFs is part of a broader trend following the launch of similar Bitcoin ETFs in January, which also experienced a mix of inflows and significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The Ethereum Mini Trust, another Grayscale product, however, reported $15.2 million in new inflows. Related Reading: Ethereum Retraces: Here’s Why ETH Bulls Must Decisively Break Above $3,500 Other notable Ethereum ETFs like Franklin Templeton’s (EZET) and 21Shares’ Core Ethereum ETF (CETH) saw inflows of $13.2 million and $7.4 million, respectively, indicating varying levels of investor interest across different funds. Overall, the first day of trading for these Ethereum ETFs brought in significant volumes and a complex flow of funds but did not translate into a significant price rally for Ethereum. As with Bitcoin, the Grayscale outflows for Ethereum seem to need to be cleared out of the way before the ETFs could have a significant impact on the price. At press time, ETH traded at $3,442. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) began trading on Tuesday, generating significant volume within the first 2 hours of trading. Interestingly, the Ethereum ETFs ranked among the top 1% regarding ETF volume. Related Reading: Analyst Says Solana Price Will Surge 1,000% To $1,800, Here’s When Ethereum ETFs Surpass Traditional Launch Volumes According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the ETH ETFs traded $361 million in the first 90 minutes on launch day, surpassing the typical volume seen at the launch of traditional ETFs. Blachunas said: Here’s where we at after 90 minutes. $361m total. As a group that number would rank them about 15th overall in ETF volume (about what $TLT and $EEM trade), which is Top 1%. But again compared to a normal ETF launch, which rarely see more than $1m on Day One, all of them have cleared that number and then some. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at asset manager VanEck, highlighted the significance of these figures in the first hours of trading, noting that Ethereum ETFs saw more than 50% of trading volume compared to Bitcoin’s $610 million on day one, indicating strong investor interest in Ethereum. However, how these numbers will fare at the close remains to be seen. Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.6 billion in volume on their first day of trading in January, which may indicate the future performance of these newly approved index funds for the second-largest cryptocurrency on the market. ETH’s Price Targets Soar Crypto analyst Doctor Profit shared a report highlighting a potentially massive parabolic move for Ethereum’s price this year in the wake of the expected inflows in the new Ethereum ETF market. While some anticipate a correction due to the “sell the news” phenomenon, Doctor Profit argues that the market has already factored in the ETF launch but has yet to consider the significant inflows of USD that will flood into the Ethereum ETFs. With Ethereum’s market cap being three times smaller than Bitcoin’s, Doctor Profit believes that every dollar invested in ETH is expected to have three times the price impact compared to Bitcoin, positioning Ethereum favorably for substantial price gains. Furthermore, the analyst contends that while Ethereum’s Grayscale ETH Fund sell pressure is comparable to the Bitcoin ETF launch, the impact is expected to be less severe. Related Reading: Helium (HNT) Rockets In Value With 41% Rally – Here’s Why Looking ahead, Doctor Profit has set expected price targets for Ethereum in the coming months, including a potential target between $4,500 and $5,500 by Q3 2024, indicating steady but modest growth. Moving into Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the price range is expected to expand from $5,500 to $8,000. However, it is in Q2 2025 that Ethereum is expected to significantly jump, with price targets ranging from $8,000 to $14,000. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3,444, showing sideways movement with no significant change from yesterday’s price, despite the hype surrounding the launch of the ETF market. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
With the Spot Ethereum ETFs expected to begin trading on Tuesday, July 23, expectations for the ETH price have shot up drastically. Numerous analysts and market experts have come forward to predict that it would be a great development for the ETH price, pushing it to new all-time highs. However, one analyst has warned investors […]
The US spot Ethereum ETFs are set to launch on Tuesday, July 23rd, with projections indicating potential monthly inflows of $1.2 billion. This forecast comes from ASXN, a research firm specializing in crypto finance analytics. US Spot Ethereum ETFs Could Surprise To The Upside At the core of ASXN’s analysis is the comparison between the newly introduced Ethereum ETFs and the previously launched Bitcoin ETFs. One of the critical differentiators highlighted in the report is the fee structure. The Ethereum ETFs, while mirroring the fee approach of Bitcoin ETFs, introduce a notably competitive twist with Grayscale’s new ‘mini trust’ Ethereum product. Initially disclosed at a 0.25% management fee, the fee was quickly adjusted to 0.15% after competitive pressures from other low-fee products like Blackrock’s ETHA ETF. Grayscale has strategically re-positioned 10% of its Ethereum Trust (ETHE) Assets Under Management (AUM) to this mini trust, offering ETHE holders an exchange to the new ETF at no tax liability—a move aimed at retaining capital within its ecosystem and providing a more attractive fee structure to fee-sensitive investors. “Grayscale’s strategic adjustment of its fee structure and the innovative mini trust offering are likely to redefine the competitive landscape of Ethereum ETFs,” an ASXN analyst commented in the report. “This could not only stem potential outflows but also attract a broader base of institutional investors due to the more favorable fee dynamics.” Related Reading: Here’s What To Know On Grayscale Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Spinoffs – Details ASXN’s report also covers the potential market impact of the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs. Utilizing global data from existing crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs), the research draws parallels and contrasts between the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets. Historically, ETPs have been overweight in Bitcoin relative to Ethereum based on AUM ratios compared to market cap ratios. This has shifted slightly with Ethereum gaining more traction and investment confidence. Referring to other research reports on potential ETF inflows, the report notes: “There have been many estimates for the ETF flows, some of which we have highlighted below. Taking the estimates and standardizing them yields an average estimate in the $1bn/month region. Standard Chartered Bank offers the highest estimate with $2bn/month, while JP Morgan is on the low end at $500m/month.” ASXN’s estimate lies at $800 to $1.2 billion per month. “This was calculated by taking a market cap weighted average of monthly Bitcoin inflows and scaling this by the market cap of ETH,” the firm notes. Furthermore, they backed their estimates with the global crypto ETP data and “are open to an upside surprise given the unique dynamics of ETHE trading at par prior to the launch and the introduction of the mini trust.” The Reflexivity Of ETH In terms of liquidity, the report suggests that Ethereum’s market dynamics are distinct from those of Bitcoin. Although Ethereum’s overall liquidity is slightly lower, the impact of new ETF inflows could be more pronounced due to Ethereum’s lower ‘float’—the amount of an asset readily available for trading. “Ethereum’s liquidity profile, compounded by its smaller float relative to Bitcoin, implies that inflows into the ETF could have a disproportionately positive effect on its price,” states the report. Related Reading: CBOE Global Markets Lists Spot Ethereum ETFs, Confirms Launch Date Moreover, ASXN’s analysis is devoted to the reflexivity inherent in Ethereum’s market. According to the report, inflows into Ethereum ETFs could lead to higher Ethereum prices, which in turn could increase activity and investments in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and other Ethereum-based applications. This feedback loop is supported by Ethereum’s tokenomics, specifically the EIP-1559 mechanism which burns a portion of transaction fees, effectively reducing the total supply of Ethereum over time. “The reflexivity of Ethereum’s market extends beyond simple supply and demand dynamics due to its integral role in DeFi and other blockchain-based applications,” ASXN explains and adds, “as the price of Ethereum increases, it could significantly enhance the underlying fundamentals of the DeFi platforms, driving further investments and creating a self-reinforcing cycle of value appreciation.” The report concludes with strategic insights for traditional finance (TradFi) institutions considering Ethereum investments. It argues that the narrative around Ethereum as a multi-faceted platform for decentralized applications provides a compelling value proposition beyond the “digital gold” narrative typically associated with Bitcoin. ASXN also speculates on the future potential for a staked ETH ETF, which could attract TradFi players with its yield-generating capabilities. “The possibility of a staked ETH ETF could become a game-changer, offering traditional finance a way to engage with crypto assets that not only appreciate in value but also generate yield,” the report suggests. At press time, ETH traded at $3,494. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Crypto Kaleo has explained why he believes Bitcoin will continue outperforming Ethereum in the short term. He made this assertion based on his belief that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will not instantly have the impact that many expect it to have on ETH’s price. Bitcoin Will Continue To Outperform Ethereum For Now Crypto […]
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has confirmed the launch date for Spot Ethereum ETFs, revealing when five Spot ETH ETFs will commence trading in the crypto market. CBOE Finalizes Launch Date For Spot Ethereum ETFs On July 19, the CBOE released a new issue notification on its official website concerning the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs trading. According to the notification, five Spot ETH ETFs will begin trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on July 23, 2024, pending regulatory effectiveness. Previously, analysts, including Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, had predicted that Spot ETH ETFs could start trading on July 2. However, Balchunas has since revised his forecast, suggesting in another X (formerly Twitter) post that ETH ETFs would likely launch on July 18. Related Reading: Crypto Market Rebounds From Lows, But Why Are Cardano Holders Suffering Losses? Amid the fluctuating timelines for Spot Ethereum’s debut, the CBOE’s confirmation carries significant weight, aligning with the summer launch date projected by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The adjustment to a July 23 launch date is partly due to delays from several Spot Ethereum ETF issuers, who have needed to amend and resubmit their S-1 registration forms to the SEC for review and approval. The five Spot ETH ETFs set to begin trading on July 23 include Fidelity Ethereum ETF Fund (FETH), Ark 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF (CETH), Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET), VanEck Ethereum ETF (ETHV), and Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF (QETH). The launch of these Spot Ethereum ETFs represents a significant milestone in the crypto market, providing investors the opportunity to gain exposure to ETH without the significant risks of volatility often associated with cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the introduction of Spot Ethereum ETFs is set to bring greater diversification in the crypto market, offering investors a new trading option beyond Spot Bitcoin ETFs. While CBOE’s confirmation of Spot Ethereum ETFs launch is a promising development for the crypto market, the real focus will be on the performance and demand of these ETFs, as their success could set a precedent for more crypto ETF filings in the future. Will ETH ETFs Match Bitcoin ETFs Demand Post Launch? The performance of Ethereum Spot ETFs has been a hot topic in the crypto space, as analysts constantly analyze whether the demand for ETH ETFs could potentially match or even surpass that of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Related Reading: Can Burns Send The Shiba Inu And LUNC Price To $0.01? Expert Chimes In Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, predicts that Ethereum Spot ETFs will be a resounding success, gathering about $15 billion in new assets within the first 18 months in the market. The Bitwise CIO also stated that the demand for ETH ETFs will surge significantly, potentially propelling the price of ETH to a $5,000 all time high. In contrast, Samson Mow, the CEO of JAN3, a Bitcoin technology company, believes that Spot Ethereum ETFs will not be as bullish as Spot Bitcoin ETFs. He further added that Ether ETFs will massively underperform Bitcoin ETFs in the market. While there are differing opinions regarding the success of Spot Ethereum ETFs, it remains uncertain just how well these investment products will perform following its launch. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In a recent interview, US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce reopened the discussion of adding staking features to Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) after their upcoming launch, possibly on July 23. Initially, ETF issuers such as VanEck and Fidelity had sought approval to wager the underlying Ethereum held in their products. However, it […]
Ethereum (ETH) is up in the last 24 hours. This is thanks to a recent development suggesting that the Spot Ethereum ETFs are set to launch anytime soon. These funds are expected to positively impact ETH’s price, with the second-largest crypto token poised to reach new highs. Why ETH Is Up Today Ethereum experienced a price surge following Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas’ revelation that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could begin trading by July 23. Balchunas mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has gotten back to the fund issuers and asked them to submit their final S-1 filings by July 22. Related Reading: Analyst Says Solana Price Could Rise 450% To $840 – Here Are The Drivers The SEC also asked them to request effectiveness on July 22 so they can launch on July 23. Therefore, the Spot Ethereum ETFs should launch by next week, provided there are no “unforeseeable” last-minute issues, as noted by Balchunas. The launch of the Spot Ethereum ETFs is undoubtedly bullish for ETH, giving the amount of new money set to flow into its ecosystem through these funds. Crypto research firm K33 predicted that these Spot Ethereum ETFs could attract as much as $4.8 billion in their first five months of trading. In line with this, crypto analysts predict that Ethereum could record massive gains thanks to these inflows. Crypto analyst Linda recently predicted that the crypto token could rise to as high as $4,000 soon enough. Other analysts, like Altcoin Sherpa, have also predicted that ETH will hit $4,000 soon. Meanwhile, crypto analyst and trader Tyler Durden has provided a more bullish prediction for ETH, stating that the crypto token will rise to $10,000 “just the way the chips have fallen.” The crypto analyst alluded to the Spot Ethereum ETFs as what will spark such a parabolic move for Ethereum. He claimed that institutional investors had put so much effort into ensuring that the Spot Ethereum ETFs were approved and that they would ensure that they made money from these funds while pumping ETH’s price. What The Spot Ethereum ETFs Mean For Altcoins The Spot Ethereum ETFs launch is also expected to spark massive moves for other altcoins and is likely to kickstart the altcoin season. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover advised market participants to prepare accordingly, boldly asserting that altcoin season will start once the Spot Ethereum ETFs begin trading. Related Reading: JPMorgan Says Crypto Liquidations Will End And Bitcoin Bull Market Will Begin, Here’s When From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto mentioned that altcoins are ready to make major moves to the upside as Bitcoin’s dominance drops. Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto also stated that the macro short-term correction for altcoins is about to end, meaning that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could be the catalyst that sparks a bullish reversal. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at around $3,300, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Linda has made a bullish case for Ethereum (ETH), predicting that the second-largest crypto token by market cap could rise to $4,000. The analyst also explained what could lead to such a price surge. Why Ethereum Could Reach $4,000 In a post shared on TradingView, Linda highlighted the potential approval of the Spot Ethereum ETFs as one factor that could trigger a move to $4,000 for Ethereum. She noted that the sentiment around these funds is positive, with traders waiting for news from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation: Who’s Been Buying Up All The BTC Dumped By The German Government? These Spot Ethereum ETFs are expected to be approved anytime soon based on predictions made by market experts, including Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. Similarly to Linda’s prediction, other crypto analysts like Michael van de Poppe have predicted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will spark a massive rally for Ethereum. Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, Linda noted that Ethereum’s outlook is bullish and supports the crypto token’s potential rise to $4,000. She claimed that the trigger area for buyers was at $3,200. In line with this, she believes that further final consolidation of the price above the 200-day moving average and a breakout above $3,200 will “become the reason for strengthening,” with a potential price target between $4,000 and $4,800 in sight. On local timeframes, Linda also stated that there are “prerequisites for a bullish mood,” especially on the daily timeframe, where the analyst noted that a rebound from strong support is forming. Based on her analysis, Linda claimed that the overall outlook for Ethereum points to a further rise to $4,000. Ethereum’s Chart Identical To Bitcoin’s Before ETF Launch Crypto analyst Crypto Rover recently mentioned that Ethereum’s chart is identical to Bitcoin’s before the Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. Based on this, the crypto analyst was suggesting that Ethereum could make a similar run to the one the flagship crypto enjoyed after the Bitcoin ETFs were approved. In another X post, the analyst stated that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would be approved, meaning that Ethereum’s price rally could already be on the horizon. ETH’s price surge is expected to happen thanks to the inflows the Spot Ethereum ETFs will record. Crypto research firm K33 predicts these funds could attract as much as $4.8 billion in their first five months of trading. Related Reading: Why Did The Cardano Price Surge 17% Amid The Crypto Market Crash? Crypto analyst Leon Waidmann also highlighted how these Spot Ethereum ETFs will spark a massive rally for Ethereum, stating that institutional investors will likely take a huge chunk of Ethereum’s dwindling supply once these funds begin trading. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at around $3,300, up almost 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
An Ethereum whale has caused panic among community members following a recent transaction suggesting they might be looking to offload their holdings. This comes amid a recent prediction by research firm Matrixport that Ethereum’s price could significantly rebound from its current price level. Ethereum Whales Transfers 11,215 ETH Onchain data shows that the Ethereum whale transferred 11,215 ETH ($34.3 million) to the crypto exchange Coinbase. A trader usually makes such a move when selling these tokens, and considering the amount of tokens involved, such a sale could significantly impact ETH’s price. However, data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock shows that there might be a demand for these tokens if, indeed, this whale is looking to offload their tokens. Related Reading: 83% Of All Bitcoin Holders Still In Profit Despite Drop Below $60,000 There has been an increase of 132% in the large holders’ netflow to exchange netflow ratio in the last seven days, which suggests that Ethereum whales are actively accumulating more ETH. The flow metrics also paint an accumulation trend among Ethereum holders, with inflow volume into exchanges down by over 11% in the last seven days. During this period, the outflow volume from these exchanges has increased by 3%, further confirming that Ethereum investors are looking to hold their positions and accumulate more ETH at this point. This is undoubtedly a positive development for Ethereum’s price, which could witness a significant rebound thanks to this wave of accumulation. Research firm Matrixport also predicted that ETH’s price would rebound from its current price level thanks to the Spot Ethereum ETFs, which they claimed could launch as early as this week. While that remains uncertain, market experts like Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart have suggested that it shouldn’t be long before these Spot Ethereum ETFs begin trading. This is because fund issuers have implemented most of the comments that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had on their S-1 filings. ETH Is Primed For A Rally Crypto analyst Leon Waidmann mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Ethereum is primed for a rally. He made this assertion based on Ethereum’s dwindling supply. He noted that 40% of Ethereum’s supply is locked up, with 28% staked and the other 12% in smart contracts and bridges. Additionally, Waidmann expects this supply to continue to reduce once the Spot Ethereum ETFs begin trading, with institutional investors taking a huge chunk of the supply off exchanges. Based on this, Ethereum could rally on the back of the supply and demand dynamics since demand is bound to outpace supply at some point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash: Here’s What The Data Says About Buying The Dip Crypto analyst Follis mentioned that Ethereum’s chart looks identical to Bitcoin’s just before it pumped over 200% last year. He suggested that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could be the catalyst that sparks a similar rally for ETH. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The crypto industry is on the verge of a potentially significant development as key figures in the sector hint at the imminent approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in the United States, possibly triggering a notable price rally for ETH. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, shared insights into the expected timeline for the launch of the first spot Ethereum ETF. According to Geraci, current forecasts by Bloomberg predict a mid-July launch. He detailed the procedural timeline via X, stating, “Wen spot eth ETF? BBG sticking w/ mid-July. Amended S-1s due July 8th. Potential final S-1s by July 12th. Would theoretically mean launch week of July 15th.” In parallel, Steve Kurz, head of asset management at Galaxy Digital, confirmed to Bloomberg on July 2 that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might greenlight a spot Ethereum ETF before the month’s end. Related Reading: ETH Price Dips As Ethereum ETF Approval Faces Delay Kurz emphasized the extensive groundwork laid in collaboration with the SEC, drawing parallels between the proposed Ethereum ETF and Galaxy’s existing spot Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), created with Invesco. Kurz expressed confidence in their preparedness, remarking, “We know the plumbing, we know the process… The SEC is engaged.” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also chimed in, aligning with the mid-July expectations. He highlighted the SEC’s recent instructions to Ethereum ETF issuers for amending their S-1 registration forms by July 8, suggesting possible further amendments. Notably, the SEC approved rule changes under 19-b4 in May, facilitating the listing and trading of such funds, though the issuance of funds remained pending final approvals. Ethereum Price Holds Above Key Support The anticipation of these approvals appears to be having a stabilizing effect on Ethereum prices. Crypto analyst IncomeSharks, commenting on Ethereum’s current price trajectory via X, noted optimism for a near-term breakout, stating, “ETH – Looking more optimistic for a Q3 breakout. Liking the chances of a run towards $4,000 this or next month.” According to the chart shared by him, ETH price needs to hold the region of $3,300 to $3,350 in order to rally to $4,000. Supporting this sentiment, Cold Blooded Shiller highlighted the crucial need for Ethereum to demonstrate momentum at the current price levels, specifically around the $3,400 mark, as a key indicator for a potential high-time-frame impulse. Related Reading: Ethereum Suffers 3rd Straight Weekly Outflows, Becomes 2024’s Worst Performer “ETH is still in a fine position but it really needs to start showing some momentum soon. LTF divergences around this $3400 low are probably where I take one stab at trying to capture any HTF impulse away from the consolidation,” he remarked via X. Adding historical perspective, analyst Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) compared the current market phase to Ethereum’s long consolidation in 2016-2017 before its massive rally, urging persistence and optimism: “In 2016-2017, ETH consolidated for 50+ weeks before rallying nearly 12000 percent. Today, people are giving up after less than 20 weeks, with ETH ETFs right around the corner. Stick to the plan boys. The best is yet to come.” At press time, ETH traded at $3,353. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto investment products tracking Ethereum and others registered another week of outflows last week, albeit at a lesser amount, to extend the run of outflows to three consecutive weeks. Digital investment products witnessed $30 million worth of outflows last week. However, this outflow deviated from the trend we normally observe, with Bitcoin taking a step […]
On-chain data recently showed that the Ethereum staking has experienced significant growth over the last month. This undoubtedly presents a bullish outlook for the Ethereum ecosystem, which is already oozing with a lot of bullish sentiment heading into July. Almost 60,000 Unique Depositors Join Ethereum Network Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that […]
Crypto trader Duncan has explained why he is “extremely long” on Ethereum (ETH) despite the crypto token’s recent drop to around $3,400. He emphasized the Spot Ethereum ETFs, which he believes could spark a significant rally for ETH. A ‘Significant Upside Repricing’ Could Be On The Horizon ForTHEEthereum Duncan mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that he believes that the market is way too bearish at the moment and that there could be a “significant upside repricing” for Ethereum if the Spot Ethereum ETF inflows are “anything but horrible.” He further explained why he thinks the Spot Ethereum ETFs will be a huge success, contrary to what some might think. Related Reading: Telegram-Based Notcoin Burns 210 Million Tokens Amid Positive Recovery First, he noted that asset managers view the crypto ETF space as a “new frontier” that could generate billions in management fees for them over the next ten years. He highlighted how BlackRock has had its most successful product launch ever with its Spot Bitcoin ETF, which he claims is already generating $45 million in fees yearly, just six months after its launch. Based on this, Duncan stated that the Spot Ethereum ETFs provide these asset managers another “massive opportunity” to launch a product that could bring them similar success to the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, generating hundreds of millions in fees. Duncan remarked that the Spot Ethereum ETFs are “almost as big as the Bitcoin ETF given the base management fees and the future ability to clip a fee off the staking yield.” Duncan further alluded to an interview Scott Melker (aka Wolf Of All Streets) had with VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Matthew Sigel, to emphasize how these asset managers feel about the Spot Ethereum ETFs. From what was said during the interview, Duncan noted how VanEck is betting on the Spot Ethereum ETFs to spark a “reflexive rally” in ETH, which Sigel claimed could make them more money. Spot Ethereum ETF Issuers Could Provide A Narrative For ETH Duncan tried to counter the argument made by crypto figures like Andrew Kang, who argued that Ethereum had no narrative and that the Spot Ethereum ETFs might not succeed because of that. Duncan stated that asset managers like BlackRock and VanEck can “literally start the narratives themselves.” He added that this narrative could be about BlackRock’s Real World Assets (RWA) on-chain, VanEck’s new stablecoin, or the asset managers’ “open app store” thesis. Dunan said the market could witness a “massive ETH rally” when these narratives are mixed with some “good flows and ETH’s extremely reflexive characteristics.” Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Today? The crypto trader admitted that this could take time but opined that it is naive to think that these asset managers won’t deploy significant resources to attract inflows to their Spot Ethereum ETFs. Crypto analyst and trader Tyler Durden shared a similar sentiment when he mentioned that Ethereum reaching $10,000 was the “most asymmetric bet” in crypto today. He claimed that Wall Street had put so much effort into ensuring that the Spot Ethereum ETFs were approved, and now, they will make as much money from it while pumping ETH. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Ethereum (ETH)’s struggles to regain the last cycle’s heights have brewed a bearish sentiment among some sectors of the crypto community. Its performance during Q2 has seemingly continued to fuel the sentiment. However, with rumors of an ETH ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) approval being around the corner, analysts believe the ‘King of Altcoins’ is about to hit the “ETH season.” Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Expects $15 Billion To Flow Into Spot Ethereum ETFs, How Will ETH React? Will Ethereum Spot ETF Come Next Week? On Wednesday, Reuters revealed sources close to some investment firms believe that Ethereum ETFs will be approved next week. The rumors follow the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair, Gary Gensler, comments regarding the investment products’ approval. Earlier this week, Gensler spoke at the Bloomberg Invest Summit, revealing that the approval process is “working smoothly.” The launch of the highly anticipated products is expected to come this summer and could be as early as July. According to Reuters, industry executives and lawyers involved with the applicants believe the Ethereum ETF could be approved within the next two weeks. Per the report, the ETH approval could come as soon as July 4. A month ago, ETH’s price soared by over 30% in anticipation of an SEC’s approval, going from the $3,000 mark to the $3,900 price range. Since then, the second-largest cryptocurrency has retraced to the $3,200 support zone. Nonetheless, the ‘King of Altcoins’ saw a positive impact from the recent ETF rumors. Ethereum rose by 2.5% following the news, recovering the $3,400 support zone it lost at the beginning of the week. Is ‘ETH Season’ Around The Corner? Crypto analyst Jelle believes that ETH might be ready for take-off despite the expectations of “an underwhelming ETF launch.” To the analyst, ETH “looks ready for a massive push higher” as it tests key levels the week before the alleged approval. Per his chart, the cryptocurrency is testing the support of a downtrend within the accumulation range. Jelle considers that if ETH pushes into $4,000 again, it might not “stop anytime soon.” To him, the “nearly three years in the making breakout” into the expansion zone will kickstart the “ETH season.” Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Ethereum is still consolidating against a “massive 2-year-long downtrend line.” Per the trader, the May pump highs are the place to break. A “higher high above 0.0575” would “flip the market structure to bullish.” Moreover, Crypto Yoddha highlighted the falling wedge pattern in the ETHBTC chart. The trader suggested that a breakout will come “anytime now.” This analysis was also shared by trader Miky Bull, who considers Ethereum “fully ripe for a rally from the retest of fib .618 level.” Related Reading: Ethereum Price Roadblocks: What’s Hindering A Fresh Increase? Despite being down by over 10% from the May pump, ETH has seen a 3.6% increase in the last 24 hours. As of this writing, the ‘King of Altcoins’ is exchanging hands at $3,450. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently discussed the inflows the US Spot Ethereum ETFs could attract. Specifically, he stated how much could flow into these funds in their first 18 months of trading. Spot Ethereum ETFs To Record $15 Billion In First 18 Months Of Trading Hougan mentioned in a note to investors that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could record $15 billion in net inflows in their first 18 months of trading. He elaborated on how he arrived at these figures to show that it wasn’t just a guess. First, Hougan highlighted the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum and stated that he expects investors to allocate to their respective exchange-traded products (ETPs) in proportion to their market caps. Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETFs See 7 Consecutive Days Of Outflows, Here’s What Happened Last Time Hougan noted that US investors have, so far, invested $56 billion in Spot Bitcoin ETPs and expects that figure to reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025, when these funds should have matured further and be approved on platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. Using this as a reference, Bitwise’s CIO stated that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to stay on par with the Bitcoin ETFs, which he believes could take about 18 months to happen. Hougan also highlighted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will already have $10 billion in assets upon launch, thanks to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which will convert to an ETF on launch day. Therefore, Hougan noted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs are now left with $25 billion in inflows to reach parity with the amount of inflows the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to reach by 2025 year-end. Hougan then highlighted data from the international ETP markets to show that investors may be allocating to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs roughly in line with their market caps. Using The International Markets As A Point Of Reference According to Hougan, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in Europe hold €4,601 and €1,305 in assets under management (AuM), which translates to 78% and 22% of the aggregate available funds in both markets. Similarly, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in Canada have $4,942 CAD (77%) and $1,475 CAD (23%) respectively. Related Reading: Crypto Research Firm Says Bitcoin Crash Below $60,000 May Not Be The End, Here’s Why Working with Ethereum’s ETP market share in Canada, Hougan estimated that the US Spot Ethereum ETFs could also get 22% of the US market. Based on this, Hougan lowered the estimate of net inflows for the Spot Ethereum ETFs from $25 billion to $18 billion, excluding Grayscale’s assets. Hougan eventually lowered the estimated net inflows to $15 billion by factoring in the fact that a significant portion of the flows into the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs are related to carry trades. He removed $10 billion of carry trade-related AuM from the Bitcoin market, lowering his estimates for Bitcoin from $100 billion to $90 billion and for the Spot Ethereum ETFs from $18 billion to $15 billion. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
With the Bitcoin price drop from the $70,000 level to below $64,000, meme coins have understandably suffered as a direct result of this. During this time, meme coins, both large and small, have seen their prices drop significantly, raising concerns about whether the meme coin summer is over. However, going by previous crashes, there may […]
Popular crypto analyst degentrading (@degentradingLSD) has made a bold prediction that Ethereum will reach $6,000 by September 2024. This prediction comes in response to an analysis by Mechanism Capital founder Andrew Kang, who expects Ethereum to underperform despite the imminent launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs. Andrew Kang’s analysis projects a continued downtrend for ETHBTC, with the ratio expected to range between 0.035 and 0.06 over the next year. In his detailed thread on X, Kang expressed skepticism about Ethereum’s potential, despite the ETF launch being just days away. Why Ethereum Could Reach $6,000 By September Degentrading, however, presented a counter-argument in a thread on X. Degentrading begins by examining the change in CME open interest (OI) from pre-ETF days to the present, noting a substantial increase of approximately $5 billion. He explains, “Pre-ETF, it was very onerous to perform cash and carry on CME due to margin requirements. Hence, the upper bound of basis trades is probably capped at that amount.” This insight suggests that the advent of the ETF could significantly ease trading constraints, potentially unlocking a large influx of capital. However, he tempers this by discussing the challenges posed by the extinction of prime brokers like Genesis, which complicates spot borrowing as a hedge against CME futures longs. According to degentrading, “Unless market makers can frequently charge a bid/ask spread, they are effectively locking in a loss. Therefore, the sheer amount of CME basis trades has to be a minority. I would peg the figure at $1-2 billion max.” This leaves an estimated $7 billion in potential inflows, a figure he describes as “highly dependent on assumptions.” Related Reading: Ethereum (ETH) Records Surge In Active Addresses – Incoming Price Rebound? Degentrading contrasts Ethereum’s position with that of Bitcoin, criticizing sentiments from analysts like Eric Balchunas. “Nothing in traditional finance is as exciting as tech. Bitcoin has the branding of digital gold or millennial gold. Gold’s market cap is approximately $15 trillion,” he notes. In contrast, Ethereum is seen as a decentralized global settlement layer or world computer, with the US stock market already valued at $50 trillion. This, he argues, sets a much higher ceiling for Ethereum. He further explains that in his discussions with traditional finance (tradfi) professionals, there is more enthusiasm for ETH and even SOL compared to BTC. “People are much more excited about ETH or SOL for that matter. Hence, I would peg the inflow conversion rate at half of Bitcoin’s, which translates to about $3-4 billion into ETH,” degentrading asserts. One of the key points in degentrading’s argument is Ethereum’s relative illiquidity compared to Bitcoin. He highlights that while Ethereum is roughly one-third the size of Bitcoin, its liquidity is only about 10% of BTC. “This means that an influx of $3-4 billion will materially move ETH,” he emphasizes. This illiquidity could lead to significant price movements with relatively smaller capital inflows. Addressing the market’s current positioning, degentrading points out the overall bleak sentiment on Crypto Twitter (CT), viewing it as the best technical setup for Ethereum. He notes, “On the cusp of the ETH ETF launch, you have people setting expectations for $500 million of inflows over six months. This is the BEST technical setup for ETH.” Related Reading: 3 Reasons To Invest In Ethereum, 1 To Stay Bitcoin-Only: Bitwise CIO An important factor in degentrading’s analysis is the anticipated conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF. He suggests that ETHE will likely face much less selling pressure compared to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) due to a lesser lender overhang. “ETHE will also likely face MUCH LESS selling pressure than GBTC because of the much lesser lender overhang,” he notes. Impact Of Cash And Carry Trades Andrew Kang responded to degentrading’s analysis, highlighting the involvement of large funds like Millennium, which owns $2 billion of the ETF. Kang points out that such funds engage in basis trades and are not long-only investment funds. “Millennium by itself owns $2 billion of the ETF. They are not a long-only investment fund. They do these types of basis trades. That’s only one fund from an old filing,” Kang stated. Degentrading acknowledged this but emphasized the cost implications of holding a cash and carry position. He argued that the cost of holding such positions nets out significant amounts, which impacts the market maker’s profitability. “On that thought, the cost of holding a cash and carry would net out $300 million to Millennium and cost the market maker that amount, implying that the delta is borne by a naked delta on the futures,” degentrading retorted. At press time, ETH traded at $3,362.90. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
The Ethereum Foundation is again in the news following its recent transaction involving millions of Ethereum (ETH) tokens. The non-profit organization’s Ethereum transactions are always significant, considering the impact they usually have on the second-largest crypto token. Ethereum Foundation Transfers $64.4 Million Worth Of ETH Crypto journalist Colin Wu revealed in an X (formerly Twitter) post that a wallet (0x8e…D052) linked to the Ethereum Foundation transferred 18,089 ETH ($64.4 million) to a new address (0x87…D812). On-chain data shows that the new address has yet to transfer these funds and that the ETH holdings have yet to be offloaded on the market. Related Reading: Solana Whale Shakes Market With $372 Million Transfer, Where Are The Coins Headed? Transactions involving the Ethereum Foundations are always concerning because the non-profit organization has a reputation for selling at the top. As such, the transaction of these funds is one to keep an eye on, considering that the potential sale of these tokens could mean that the Ethereum Foundation is again looking to catch ETH at the top. It is worth mentioning that the Ethereum Foundation has already sold over 1,700 ETH since the start of 2024 with on-chain analytics platform SpotOnChain, noting that these transactions have always occurred ahead of a price drop. Therefore, a potential price drop if these 18,089 ETH are eventually sold is a huge possibility. Despite this development, Ethereum’s outlook is very bullish, especially with Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas stating that the Spot Ethereum ETFs could begin trading by July 2. These funds are expected to spark a significant rally for the second-largest crypto by market cap, with crypto experts like Ash Crypto predicting that Ethereum could rise to $10,000 thanks to these Spot Ethereum ETFs. ETH To $10,000 Is The Most “Asymmetric Bet” Crypto analyst and trader Tyler Durden mentioned that the most asymmetric bet in crypto today is ETH reaching $10,000. He also highlighted Ethereum’s chart against Bitcoin and suggested that ETH was ready for that big move, considering it has traded sideways for eight months. The analyst also suggested that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will play a massive role in Ethereum’s rise to this price level. He stated that Wall Street went through a lot of effort to get the Spot Ethereum ETFs approved and that they would ensure that they make money from ETH while pumping its price. Related Reading: Bernstein Analysts Revise Bitcoin Target, $200,000 And $1 Million Become Main Focus Meanwhile, Durden boldly asserted that money would exit the Solana ecosystem and rotate to Ethereum. He claimed that Solana has lost its “main character and driver of liquidity”, which is why the money will flow into ETH. Interestingly, he mentioned that celebrities have “cannibalised,” which is why he believes that the capital rotation cannot happen the other way around with money moving from Ethereum to Solana. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at around $3,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from The Crypto Times, chart from Tradingview.com
Ethereum has seen a number of notable withdrawals that suggests that crypto whales are expecting a recovery in price. These large withdrawals has caused the ETH balances on centralized exchanges to fall to their lowest level since 2016. 336,000 ETH Withdrawn From Exchanges Crypto analyst Ash Crypto took to X (formerly Twitter) to reveal a notable change in the amount of ETH that is being held on centralized exchanges currently. Notably, there has been a marked increase in the withdrawals of small and large investors alike, leading to the highest withdrawal trend of 2024 so far. Related Reading: DOGE To The Moon: This Dogecoin Metric Just Turned Bullish For The First Time Since 2020 The report focuses on the withdrawals from the Coinbase exchange, which is the largest crypto exchange in the United States. The uptick in the withdrawal trend saw a whopping 336,000 ETH withdrawn from the exchange’s wallets in just 48 hours. This translates to the highest withdrawal trend from the exchange so far this year. However, Coinbase wasn’t the only crypto exchange hit hard by the Ethereum withdrawals as the cumulative exchange addresses saw their ETH balances fall drastically. As the on-chain tracker Santiment revealed in a report, the total ETH held on centralized exchange wallets has fallen 8.6% in the last two weeks alone. These withdrawals have greatly impacted the exchange balances, causing them to fall to their lowest point in 8 years. This means that the last time that the exchange balances were this low was back in 2016, which is three bull markets ago. Will This Propel Ethereum Price To $10,000? Naturally, the withdrawal of Ethereum from exchanges is bullish given that this is a trend that suggests investors are choosing to hold their Ethereum coins rather than sell them. If coins were moving the other direction and being deposited on exchanges instead, it would’ve been bearish for the price as it meant that investors were looking to offload their holdings for profit. Related Reading: XRP Continues To Struggle Below $0.5, Ex-Ripple Director Reveals Why Price Action Remains Muted Crypto analyst Ash Crypto shares the sentiment that the withdrawals are bullish for the price. According to the analyst, with Spot Ethereum ETFs set to start trading in 2024 in addition to this, it means that the ETH price trading above $10,000 is just a matter of time. Presently, the ETH price is still closely following the Bitcoin trend. It has recovered above $3,500 once more after initially falling below this support level on Thursday. Nonetheless, it continues to nurse losses on the weekly chart, with CoinMarketCap data showing a decline of 7.88%. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In a pronounced shift in the digital assets landscape, the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, signaled a stronger alignment with public blockchain networks, notably Ethereum, over permissioned alternatives. This key insight emerged during the “Beyond Bitcoin ETFs – What’s Next on the Institutional Roadmap?” panel at Coinbase’s State of Crypto Summit 2024 on Thursday. BlackRock […]
In a significant regulatory shift, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) partially approved the long-awaited Ethereum ETF filings submitted by prominent asset managers three weeks ago, including BlackRock and Grayscale. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has indicated that full approval for these Ethereum ETFs could come by the end of the summer, providing much-needed clarity […]
Following the recent price spike that brought Ethereum (ETH) close to the $4,000 mark, the second-largest cryptocurrency has experienced inflows and renewed market enthusiasm. This comes in response to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of Ethereum ETF applications by major asset managers. Best Week For Ethereum Since March According to a report by CoinShares, digital asset investment products have witnessed a total of $2 billion inflows, contributing to a five-week consecutive run of inflows amounting to $4.3 billion. Additionally, trading volumes in exchange-traded products (ETPs) have risen to $12.8 billion for the week, a 55% increase from the previous week. Notably, inflows have been observed across various providers, indicating a turnaround in sentiment. Incumbent providers have also experienced a slowdown in outflows, reinforcing the positive market sentiment. Related Reading: Solana Searching For Direction: Will SOL Break Free Or Fall Flat? As seen in the image above, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to dominate the market, with inflows totaling $1.97 billion for the week. On the other hand, short Bitcoin products saw outflows of $5.3 million for the third consecutive week. Similarly, Ethereum has also seen a notable surge in inflows, recording its best week since March with a total of $69 million, which for CoinShares is likely a reaction to the unexpected SEC decision to allow spot-based ETFs on Ethereum. Differing Perspectives On ETH’s Price Despite the positive developments, Ethereum’s price has struggled to maintain bullish momentum, failing to retest its yearly high of $4,100 reached in March. On Friday, the price dropped as low as $3,577. However, Ethereum addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have increased by 3% in the past three weeks, indicating a significant spike in buying pressure. Related Reading: Major Bitcoin Metric Breaks 3-Month Downtrend Amid Bullish Network Recovery Market analysts have provided differing perspectives on Ethereum’s future price action. “Trader Tank” predicts that ETH may drop to $3,500 while acknowledging the potential for a bullish reversal upon reclaiming the $3,700 level. On the other hand, crypto analyst Lark Davis highlights that Ethereum’s supply on exchanges is at an eight-year low, suggesting that the upcoming ETFs could cause a “massive supply shock” and potentially lead to a substantial increase in ETH’s price. Ultimately, as Ethereum’s price remains uncertain, market participants eagerly await the next movements in the cryptocurrency. As investors and analysts closely monitor the market dynamics, the question of whether a breakout above $4,000 or a retest of lower support levels at $3,500 awaits an answer. The second-largest cryptocurrency on the market is currently trading at $3,690, down 6.5% in the past two weeks. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
In a recent flurry of heated exchanges on social media platform X, Evgeny Gaevoy, the founder and CEO of crypto trading powerhouse Wintermute, has sparked a notable debate concerning the future of Ethereum and its leadership. Gaevoy, in a pointed critique, suggested that potential failures in Ethereum would not stem from technological competition like Solana, […]
According to a Bloomberg report, analysts suggest that the debut of the recently approved Ethereum ETFs in the US may generate significantly less demand than spot-Bitcoin products. Major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity, await final approvals from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list the long-awaited Ethereum funds. However, JPMorgan strategists anticipate much […]
Despite the relative tepid movement in the crypto market since Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) in March, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have continued to top traditional assets, including Gold. This was highlighted in a recent report that showed how crypto assets have provided the best returns for a while now. Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Outperform Traditional Assets Raoul Pal, Co-Founder of Exponential Age Asset Management (EXPAAM), shared the crypto investment firm’s latest monthly update, showing annualized returns on all major assets. Related Reading: Dogecoin Social Sentiment Turns Bearish And Drops To March Levels, What This Means For Price Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have topped traditional assets with annualized returns of 141%, 152%, and 224%, respectively. For context, NDX, the best major traditional asset, boasts an annualized return of 17%. Thanks to this, these crypto assets have been the best-performing assets in 11 of the last 14 years. These digital assets also look on course to outperform traditional assets again this year, as they boast higher year-to-date (YTD) gains. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana currently have YTD gains of over 67%, 66% and 70%, respectively. On the other hand, Gold, the best-performing non-crypto asset this year, has a YTD gain of 13%. The NDX boasts a YTD gain of 10%, while the SPY has recorded a YTD gain of 11%. Interestingly, while the volatility of crypto assets has been criticized at times, this has largely contributed to why they have continued outperforming traditional assets. The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, previously highlighted how Bitcoin has continued to record the best risk-reward since 2020. He also alluded to Bitcoin’s high volatility, stating that Bitcoin’s huge drawdowns have also come with large gains. The same can also said about crypto tokens, especially considering that a token like Solana, which dropped to as low as $10 in late 2022, is now trading above $170. More Gains Ahead For BTC, ETH, SOL Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are expected to record more YTD gains as the year progresses, given that the crypto market is currently in a bull run. Recent developments in the crypto market also paint a bullish outlook for these crypto tokens. One is the increased demand for the Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from Farside Investors showed that these funds recorded net inflows of $886.6 million on June 4, their best day since March. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Shares “Inevitable” Prices For Bitcoin And 5 Altcoins Meanwhile, the Spot Ethereum ETFs are expected to begin trading by July. Crypto analysts like Michael van de Poppe predict these funds could spark a significant rally for Ethereum and other altcoins. ‘Solana Summer’ also looks to be on the horizon, with the crypto token showing signs of imminent parabolic upward trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has broken above the $70,000 resistance level and is trading at around $71,000, up almost 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Only 10.6% of the total Ether supply is currently on centralized crypto exchanges, its lowest level in years.
Data shows the investors in the Ethereum derivatives market have been taking on very high leverage recently, something that could lead to volatility for the asset. Ethereum Estimated Leverage Ratio Has Been At Extreme Levels Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the ETH Estimated Leverage Ratio has been on the up recently. The “Estimated Leverage Ratio” (ELR) refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Ethereum Open Interest and Exchange Reserve. The former of these, the Open Interest, here is a measure of the total amount of derivatives positions related to ETH that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. The second metric, the Exchange Reserve, naturally tells us about the total number of tokens of the cryptocurrency that are sitting in wallets attached to all exchanges. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Is “One Of Crypto’s Top Leading Indicators”: Santiment When the ELR’s value rises, it means that the Open Interest is increasing at a faster rate than the Exchange Reserve. Such a trend implies that investors are opting for a higher amount of leverage on average. On the other hand, a decline in the indicator suggests the derivatives market users are moving towards a lower amount of risk as they are deleveraging their positions. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum ELR over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum ELR has observed some steep growth recently. This sudden sharp uptrend in the asset came about as news around the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gained traction in the buildup to the approval. The cryptocurrency’s price also registered a sharp rally during the same time. Thus, the conditions were perfect for attracting fresh speculation related to the coin, so it’s not surprising that the indicator’s value saw a spike. The rise has also continued beyond the approval of the ETFs, but the price has fallen to a sideways movement. It would appear that the investors are willing to take even higher risk despite this consolidation, trying to bet big on where Ethereum could escape from here. Historically, a high value of the leverage ratio has meant a higher volatility for the asset’s price. This is because mass liquidation events can become more probable to take place when the investors are sitting in overleveraged positions. Related Reading: How High Can Bitcoin Go Before A Top? Analyst Chimes In With ETH trading sideways recently and all these positions building up, it might take only one break in either direction before a lot of these positions come crashing down. A large number of such liquidations happening at once would only fuel further into the price move that caused them, thus amplifying it. It now remains to be seen how the Ethereum price develops in the coming days and if a volatile move is waiting for it given the trend in the ELR. ETH Price May has been a good time for Ethereum investors as the asset is looking to close the month with positive returns of more than 18%. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report, has published a deep dive into the implications of the approval of spot Ethereum (ETH) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory. This analysis follows on the heels of a significant regulatory nod from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which approved the 19b-4 applications for eight leading financial entities — Grayscale, Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Ark 21Shares, Invesco, Fidelity, and Franklin. These approvals, granted under a collective omnibus order on May 23, set the stage for the final steps, which involve awaiting S-1 registrations’ sign-offs before these spot ETFs can start trading. Why Ethereum Could Skyrocket To $15,000 The report draws upon projections by ETF experts at Bloomberg, such as James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, suggesting that the inflows into Ethereum ETFs could range between 10-20% of those experienced by Bitcoin ETFs. “The logic behind these projections rests on a few key observations—currently, there is less institutional interest in ETH, and it is inherently more complex than BTC. Also, the ETH futures ETF volume is considerably less than BTC’s, ranging from 10-20%, and ETH spot trading volumes are roughly half of BTC’s,” Nadeau explains. He added that “ETH is more difficult to understand than BTC. ETH futures ETF volume is less than BTC (10-20%). ETH spot trading volumes are less than BTC (about 50%). ETH is about 1/3 of BTC’s market cap.” Related Reading: Ethereum Spot ETFs: Report Shows Grayscale Could Keep ETH Price Down With $110M Daily Outflows However, according to the researcher, the dynamics of Ethereum offer a unique perspective when compared to Bitcoin. “Ethereum validators do not incur the substantial operating expenses that Bitcoin miners do, which mitigates the structural sell pressure on the asset,” Nadeau states. This difference is critical in understanding the supply-side dynamics of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. Nadeau also delves into the current status of Ethereum on-chain activities. A substantial portion of Ethereum, approximately 38%, is effectively ‘soft locked’ across various mechanisms like staking contracts and DeFi applications. This scenario, as Nadeau points out, “helps reduce the available circulating supply, contributing to a decrease in ETH balances on exchanges to levels not seen since 2016—currently, this stands at less than 11% of the circulating supply.” The concept of reflexivity in Ethereum’s market behavior also receives significant attention in Nadeau’s report. “ETH is more reflexive than BTC. This reflexivity could be expressed with price action leading onchain activity, which leads to more ETH burned, which can further drive narratives, more price action, more onchain activity, and more ETH burned,” Nadeau elaborates, suggesting a cyclic effect that could significantly amplify Ethereum’s market presence and valuation. Related Reading: Ethereum Deposits At 4-Month High: Whales Preparing For Selloff? Exploring potential market scenarios, Nadeau questions the extent of rebalancing that might occur from spot Bitcoin ETF holders towards Ethereum, the attractiveness of a 50/50 BTC and ETH allocation, and the potential shift of institutional focus towards Ethereum. He hypothesizes, “If momentum hits ETH, will we see the ‘reflexivity flywheel’ kick into gear? How many institutions are on the sideline right now, having missed BTC? Will they go all in on ETH?” In concluding his analysis, Nadeau presents a valuation framework that anticipates the cryptocurrency market reaching a $10 trillion market cap. He states, “Given our fundamental views on ETH, we think it’s more likely that ETH will outperform Bloomberg’s projections of 10-20% of BTC’s net inflows. Under this scenario” and projects that “ETH could command a market cap at cycle peak of $1.8 trillion, which would price ETH at approximately $14,984 (3.9x), assuming no change in supply.” He continues, “For reference, if Bitcoin reaches a $4 trillion market cap, that would price BTC at $202,000 (2.8x)” at cycle peak. At press time, ETH was trading at $3,823, still around 29 % away from its 2021 all-time high. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto community is on the cusp of potentially welcoming spot Ethereum ETFs, with the financial community closely monitoring the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its impending decision. Key industry figures have recently provided insights and predictions regarding the timeline for approval, drawing on a comprehensive understanding of SEC’s past actions and current […]