Ethereum has retraced to the $3,160 level following the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While rate cuts typically support risk assets, Jerome Powell’s comments added a new layer of uncertainty to the market. Related Reading: The Whale Who Can’t Stop Buying: BitcoinOG Scales Ethereum Long To $280M After Price Surge By openly acknowledging the risks of weaker growth paired with persistent inflation, Powell introduced the possibility of stagflation—a scenario that historically challenges both equities and crypto. As a result, sentiment across the market remains fragile, and investors are struggling to interpret what this macro shift could mean for Ethereum’s next move. Despite the volatility surrounding the decision, one major whale continues to act with conviction. According to Lookonchain, the Bitcoin OG who famously shorted the market during the October 10 crash is once again doubling down on his bullish Ethereum position. Instead of taking profits or reducing exposure after the recent rally, he has continued accumulating aggressively, signaling a strong belief in ETH’s medium-term trajectory even as broader sentiment turns cautious. Whale Position Ramps Up, But Risk Is Rising According to Lookonchain, the whale’s position has now surged to 120,094 ETH, valued at approximately $392.5 million. With a liquidation price at $2,234.69, this has become one of the largest and most aggressive long positions currently tracked on-chain. Such a massive allocation signals extreme conviction, especially coming from the same Bitcoin OG who successfully shorted the market during the October 10 crash. However, the scale of this bet also highlights how much risk is now concentrated in a single directional position. The liquidation price is a key concern. At $2,234, it sits nearly $1,000 below current levels, but in highly leveraged environments—especially during macro uncertainty—prices can retrace violently. Ethereum has already shown a tendency toward sharp intraday moves, and with funding rates rising and leverage across the market stretching to historical highs, even a moderate correction could trigger cascading liquidations. If ETH experiences a sudden spike in volatility due to shifting macro conditions, a negative reaction to the latest FOMC decision, or a broader market unwind, the whale’s position could come under significant pressure. While large whales often influence market sentiment, this setup illustrates how thin the margin for error has become. Related Reading: Why Ethereum’s Rally Isn’t Overheated – And Where Demand Must Grow Next ETH Testing Resistance While Momentum Weakens Ethereum has retraced to the $3,196 level after failing to hold above the $3,300 zone, signaling that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken. The daily chart shows ETH rejecting the red 200-day moving average, a key long-term trend indicator that has acted as resistance throughout the recent downtrend. Until ETH breaks and closes decisively above this level, the broader structure remains vulnerable. The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward, reflecting persistent selling pressure despite last week’s rebound. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average sits well above the current price, reinforcing the heavy overhead resistance ETH must overcome to reestablish a bullish trend. Volume has also declined compared to the early December bounce, suggesting buyers are losing strength as price approaches major resistance levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall To Lowest Levels on Record: The Bullish Signal Most Traders Are Missing Structurally, ETH remains in a mid-term downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows since September. Although the recent push from the $2,800 region shows buyers defending key support, the rejection at $3,350 highlights that sellers are still in control at higher levels. If ETH fails to regain the 200-day moving average soon, a retest of the $3,050–$3,100 support range becomes likely. Conversely, a strong reclaim above $3,350 could open the door for a move toward $3,500, but the market will need renewed momentum to get there. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum is trading with renewed strength after breaking above the $3,300 level and briefly pushing toward $3,400, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. However, despite this recovery, bullish conviction remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that the broader trend still leans bearish, emphasizing that Ethereum has yet to reclaim the structural levels needed to confirm a macro reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall To Lowest Levels on Record: The Bullish Signal Most Traders Are Missing Yet one signal has captured significant attention: according to fresh data from Lookonchain, a major whale known as BitcoinOG has doubled down on his Ethereum long position. This trader is widely recognized for being the whale who successfully shorted Bitcoin during the October 10 market crash, a move that earned him substantial profits and elevated his reputation across the on-chain analysis community. Rather than taking profits after ETH’s recent pump, he has expanded his long exposure—an unusually aggressive stance at a time when most traders remain cautious. His renewed commitment raises questions about whether smart money is quietly positioning for a larger upside move, even as broader sentiment remains skeptical. If momentum holds, Ethereum may be preparing for a far more significant move than the market currently expects. Whale Positioning and FOMC Impact According to Lookonchain, the whale known as BitcoinOG has now expanded his position to 85,001 ETH, valued at roughly $280 million, and is currently sitting on more than $16 million in unrealized profit. Such an aggressive accumulation during a period of widespread caution signals a notable divergence between retail sentiment and whale behavior. When a trader with a proven track record positions this heavily on the long side, it often reflects a strategic conviction that market conditions could soon shift in favor of higher prices. However, this positioning unfolds just as the market approaches a pivotal macro event: the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates can dramatically influence liquidity, risk appetite, and short-term volatility across all risk assets, including Ethereum. A rate cut could inject optimism into the market by weakening the US dollar and improving overall liquidity conditions. Conversely, a hawkish tone or a smaller-than-expected policy adjustment could trigger a sell-the-news reaction, especially with ETH nearing resistance. For Ethereum, whale accumulation combined with macro uncertainty creates a high-stakes environment. If liquidity expands post-FOMC, ETH could gain momentum. If not, even strong whale positions may face short-term pressure. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees Largest Binance Inflow Since 2023 – Warning Sign? ETH Testing Breakout Strength Ahead of Key Resistance Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a decisive shift in momentum, with ETH pushing firmly above the $3,300 level after a clean breakout from its multi-week downtrend. This move marks one of the strongest bullish impulses since early November, supported by rising volume and a clear reclaim of the 50 EMA and 100 EMA. The 200 EMA (red), which previously acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline, has now been tested and is beginning to flatten—often an early indication that bearish momentum is losing dominance. However, ETH is now hovering directly below a critical resistance zone around $3,380–$3,420, a level where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. The current consolidation just beneath this zone reveals an undecided market: bulls attempt to establish acceptance above $3,300, while bears defend the next resistance layer. Related Reading: Ethereum Loses Momentum While OI Holds Steady: Binance Data Shows A Market Reset If buyers manage to flip $3,320 into solid support, the path toward $3,500 becomes more achievable, especially if broader market sentiment improves. Conversely, a rejection from the $3,400 area could trigger a short-term pullback toward $3,200–$3,250, where moving averages are now stacked as layered support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile stretch, offering a rare sign of strength in an otherwise uncertain market. The broader crypto landscape remains sharply divided: some analysts argue that ETH and the rest of the market still face downward continuation, potentially setting new local lows, while others believe this correction is simply a reset before a much larger bull cycle—possibly extending into 2026. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Break $97K To Restore Confidence Among Youngest Long-Term Holders – Details Yet one signal stands out clearly amid the noise: smart whales are unanimously going long on ETH. On-chain data shows that several of the most profitable and consistent whale traders—each with tens of millions in realized gains—have opened substantial long positions, collectively exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars. Their coordinated behavior indicates confidence that Ethereum’s recent lows represent opportunity rather than danger. This alignment among top-performing whales introduces a compelling counterpoint to bearish narratives. While retail sentiment remains fragile, the most sophisticated market participants appear to be positioning for a larger move ahead. As Ethereum stabilizes above $3,150, the question now becomes whether whale conviction will prove to be early—or correct. Top Performers Load Up on Ethereum According to Hyperdash data shared by Lookonchain, some of the most successful and influential whales in the market are aggressively accumulating Ethereum—sending a strong signal that high-conviction players expect upside ahead. One of the most notable is BitcoinOG, the trader widely recognized for shorting the market during the violent 10/10 crash, a move that earned him significant credibility. With a total realized PNL of $105 million, BitcoinOG is now positioned firmly on the bullish side, holding 54,277 ETH worth approximately $169.48 million. Another major player is the well-known Anti-CZ whale, named for his historical pattern of taking the opposite side of positions favored by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. With an impressive $58.8 million in total PNL, this whale is currently long 62,156 ETH—a massive $194 million position. His trades have often been early indicators of broad market direction, adding weight to this shift toward bullish exposure. Finally, pension-usdt.eth, a consistently profitable whale address with $16.3 million in realized gains, is long 20,000 ETH valued at $62.5 million. Taken together, these positions reflect a unified stance among top-performing whales: despite market uncertainty, they are positioning for Ethereum strength. Related Reading: Ethereum Shows Signs Of Accumulation As CVD Strengthens And Correlation Stays Elevated Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization Ethereum’s weekly chart reveals a market attempting to regain its footing after a sharp multi-week decline from the $4,500 region. The recent reclaim of $3,150 is a meaningful development, as this level aligns closely with prior weekly support from mid-2024 and sits just above the 50-week moving average—an area that often acts as a trend-defining zone. ETH briefly dipped below this region during the November selloff, but buyers stepped in aggressively, producing a strong weekly wick that signals demand at lower levels. Despite this recovery attempt, ETH remains below key resistance levels. The 20-week and 100-week moving averages are positioned above the current price and converging, creating a zone of potential rejection unless momentum strengthens. For now, ETH is trading in a transitional structure: no longer trending downward aggressively, but not yet showing a confirmed bullish reversal on high timeframes. Related Reading: Ethereum NUPL Holds Steady, Signaling Market Balance Amid Volatility Volume patterns also support this interpretation. Selling volume has diminished compared to the capitulation phase, while recent green candles show moderate but steady buying interest—suggesting accumulation rather than full risk-on behavior. If ETH can establish consecutive weekly closes above $3,200–$3,300, the chart opens the door for a retest of the $3,600–$3,800 range. Failure to hold $3,150, however, risks another move toward $2,800 support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com