Analysts note that the XRP price is showing unusual resilience, as a key metric previously seen before short-term rebounds reappears on its chart. In a new technical analysis, crypto market expert Dom points out that the latest market setup mirrors conditions that have led to at least a 10% surge each time this pattern emerges. Recurring Metric Signals 10% XRP Price Surge In an X post released while XRP was still trading around $2.19, Dom highlighted a familiar technical signal, noting that past appearances of a bid-skew metric on the chart have consistently led to sharp price recoveries. As a reflection of its previous stability, the analyst stated the XRP had displayed incredible strength over the last several days, trading above the $2 level. Related Reading: Analyst Claims XRP Price Will Surge To $220 Due To ETFs, But Is This Possible? Even as the Bitcoin price plummeted by more than $15,000 in the past few days, the analyst pointed out that XRP had maintained its local low from November 5. The accompanying chart highlights this divergence between XRP and BTC, where the altcoin’s structure holds its range despite the widespread market downturn. Historically, when XRP has shown such strength during periods of Bitcoin weakness, Dom notes that it has signaled countless price reversals. The analyst further highlighted that over the past three months, every time the recurring bid-skew pattern appeared, XRP followed with an upswing of at least 10%. If the historical metric holds, Dom’s analysis suggests there could be a continuation of XRP’s recent resilience, potentially driving its price up by 10% to at least $2.09. At the time of the analyst’s post, this target may have been higher, since XRP was still trading above $2. However, the cryptocurrency has since fallen below that threshold, reaching $1.9 at the time of writing. XRP CVD Data Reveals Controlled Selling Pressure In a subsequent update, Dom shared a second chart, showing that XRP’s price had declined from its previous level of $2.19 to $2.01. He highlighted that this negative price action serves as a reminder that market dynamics don’t always follow textbook patterns. The recent decline in XRP also falls into roughly 15% of cases where typical orderbook signals fail to predict short-term moves. Related Reading: Here’s How High The XRP Price Needs To Be To Flip Bitcoin In the Binance spot market, Dom points out evidence of “controlled” selling rather than forced liquidations. Unlike earlier periods where strong bids consistently led to upward price momentum, XRP’s Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) curves on Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, and other exchanges are sloping downwards. Moreover, among all the crypto exchanges, Binance has recorded the most decline. Dom notes that controlled selling can be seen clearly in the smoothed cumulative volume lines on the chart. He warns that these developments are tricky to time. Moreover, without a sudden climax or sharp liquidation, bottoming could form slowly, making entries based on traditional reversal signals more challenging. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Adez has revealed what most traders are missing following the Bitcoin price rally to $116,000 earlier this week. The analyst suggested there is no reason to be bullish right now, as BTC is likely to decline further before breaking out to the upside. What Traders Are Missing From The Bitcoin Price Action In an X post, Adez noted that the Bitcoin price pumped from around $111,000 to $115,500 and that everyone thinks a breakout is happening. However, the analyst opined that the rally was just a trap. He explained that BTC actually swept the Value Area High at $114,600, but the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) barely moved. Related Reading: 100% Of Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Remain Untouched, Is There Still Room To Run? Adez further revealed that the open interest was completely flat, indicating that zero money came in for the move on Binance. The funding rate was also still at 0.01%, which is “dead neutral,” and nobody was excited about the Bitcoin price rally. In other words, he explained that the breakout happened with no institutional support, no new capital, and no retail FOMO, which is why the analyst believes the move was just a liquidity grab. As to what happens next, Adez stated that this is a classic pattern after sweeping resistance with weak conviction, which leads to a sharp reversal. He urged investors and traders to watch the next few H4 candles to see if the Bitcoin price rejects back below $114,600, forms a lower low, and the CVD starts dropping. For a break of structure to be confirmed, the Bitcoin price needs to break below the H1 at 114,839 and then the H4 at 113,560. Once that happens, Adez predicts that there is an 85% probability that BTC will head to the real support between $104,000 and $106,000 within seven to ten days. Notably, BTC has broken these two levels and may now be at risk of dropping to these support levels as the analyst has predicted. Why This Price Action Is Plausible Adez explained that this Bitcoin price action makes sense because November is historically 60% bullish and that Q4 has averaged 65% wins. However, he noted that these rallies didn’t start from thin air at $115,000. Instead, they start from value zones where institutions can accumulate before BTC rallies. Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market The analyst highlighted $109,000 as the point of control, while between $104,000 and $106,000 is the Value Area Low, where there are also billions in buy orders. He added that the current Bitcoin price action is floating above real support, which is exactly where smart money dumps before the real move begins. As such, Adez expects retail to buy the breakout at $115,000 and get stopped out on the reversal. Then, they miss the real entry between $104,000 and $106,000. On the other hand, Smart Money sells into this pump, waits for the sweep down, then loads up at between $104,000 and $106,000 and rides the Bitcoin price rally to above $130,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $113,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com