Binance’s futures-to-spot ratio has jumped to a 1.5-year high, its highest level since mid-2023. But why? What The Binance Data Says About The Market New data from CryptoQuant analyst Maartuun shows that Binance’s derivative volume is dwarfing spot trading, as the futures/spot ratio has risen to around 5.1. This means that for every $1 traded on spot, about $5 are traded on futures. Most “price discovery” and liquidity is happening in the derivatives order books, not in simple buy‑and‑hold spot markets. Binance-Futures/Spot Volume Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant When the ratio is high, it usually signals that short‑term, leveraged speculation and hedging dominate over straightforward accumulation. Price tends to react more violently to liquidations, funding swings and positioning than to organic spot demand. A rising Binance futures/spot ratio tells us that the market is being run by traders who want speed, leverage and hedging, not by quiet spot accumulators, so volatility and event‑risk matter more than usual right now. Related Reading: Binance Strikes Back: Why It Is Taking The Wall Street Journal To Court Historically, spikes to 1.5‑year highs have coincided with periods where Bitcoin was at or near important macro levels and the market was “trading the narrative” via derivatives, either amplifying rallies or turning corrections into sharp squeezes. As stated on the article posted on May 22 last year, “this pattern often reflects short-term sentiment and positioning rather than long-term conviction”. Therefore, we shouldn’t necessarily read this as pure “euphoria”: it can just as well be hedging and defensive positioning as it is outright speculation. Derivative Market Leader: Exchange Perpetual Futures Trading Volume. Source: CryptoQuant What The Data Says About The World The latest leg of Middle East conflict (U.S.‑Israel vs Iran, risk around Hormuz and oil flows) has injected a clear “geopolitical risk premium” into global markets. Bitcoin and crypto have been hit in these shocks with fast, deep wicks. BTC dropped to around 63k on the February strike headlines before snapping back above 70k, showing markets, following human’s fears and own volatility, react violently but then re‑normalize once the worst headlines pass and the sentiments calm down. Spot Market Leader: Exchange Spot Trading Volume. Source: CryptoQuant Binance research notes that, right now, markets are stuck between multiple unresolved themes. AI‑driven margin pressure, fragile private credit, and now high geopolitical risk, all while inflation and U.S. macro data keep the Fed “higher for longer” narrative alive. That mix (energy risk, sticky inflation, potential for tighter financial conditions) makes long‑horizon risk‑on trades less attractive, so investors lean into instruments they can size up or down quickly, like Binance futures, rather than parking capital in spot. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Holds Near $70K As Markets Brace For Key Event In a calmer, low‑vol world, spot demand tends to dominate. However, in a world of wars, oil scares and uncertain central banks, derivatives on Binance take over as traders seek speed, leverage and hedging. BTC’s price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview
According to CryptoQuant’s data, the long-awaited altcoin season may have officially arrived. The CEO of the crypto market company, Ki Young Ju, has pointed out a significant surge in altcoin volume on Centralised Exchanges (CEXs). Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Grip Tightens — CZ Says There’s ‘No Escape’ From Crypto CryptoQuant CEO Says Altcoin Season Has Begun Presenting a detailed price chart of the volume ratio of Bitcoin versus altcoins on CEXs, Ju disclosed that altcoins have been seeing significantly higher trading volume than BTC. Unlike previous bull market cycles, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is no longer the sole factor in determining the start of the altcoin season. Some analysts even suggest that the altcoin season is no longer dependent on Bitcoin dominance. Typically, during past altcoin seasons, investors and holders rotated their profits between Bitcoin and altcoins. This time, the CryptoQuant CEO suggests that even stablecoin holders move the market, favoring altcoins more than BTC and directly entering positions. Yu’s chart shows that altcoin volume on CEXs has exceeded that of Bitcoin by 2.71x based on the 90-day Moving Average (MA). Despite this increase, the CryptoQuant CEO warns that the rally set to follow the altcoin season will be selective, and not all altcoins may benefit. During the last bull run, the same event occurred, where only the most prominent coins, with proper utility, robust community, and a grand narrative, skyrocketed. On the other hand, low-cap altcoins experienced an increase, however, not as explosive as the ones recorded by coins like Solana, Cardano, and more. Based on Yu’s analysis the Bitcoin dominance no longer defines an altcoin season; rather, the trading volume does. Historically, a rise in BTC.D is seen as a deterrent to an altcoin season as the market is supposedly more interested in Bitcoin. Conversely, a decline in Bitcoin dominance is an indication of a shift in the market’s sentiment toward altcoins, signaling the possible onset of the altcoin season. Analyst Forecasts A Final Market Decline Before Altcoin Season While the start of an altcoin season could alleviate current bearish pressures on altcoins in the market, uncertainty still looms about whether this highly anticipated and recurring historical trend will occur in this bull cycle. A crypto analyst, identified as the ‘Alternative Bull’ has projected a final decline before the potential start of an altcoin season. The analyst forecasts that the altcoin season index chart will experience a significant drop and then skyrocket towards the 90 threshold before the end of 2025, as seen in the chart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Ready For ‘Take Off’—Analyst Reveals Key Signals Presently, the altcoin market cap, standing at $280.5 billion, has completed the second part of its previously formed Double Bottom pattern. This unique technical pattern is often seen as a bullish indicator, signaling a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. According to Rekt Capital on X, the altcoin market cap is attempting to break out of this pattern and initiate a bullish move towards a $300 billion valuation. Featured image from Reddit, chart from TradingView
In the past 24 hours, $521 million has been liquidated from the crypto market.