As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near its lowest levels since late 2024, a market observer suggests the flagship crypto may not have finished bottoming yet, with more downside potentially ahead. Related Reading: XRP Sees Intense Capitulation As Realized Profit-To-Loss Ratio Plunges BTC’s Historical Data Points To Longer Correction On Wednesday, analyst Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s current price action to its performance in previous cycles to determine how close the leading crypto’s market bottom may be. In a video analysis on X, the market watcher explained that BTC’s deviations from previous all-time highs (ATHs) could serve as key reference points for this assessment. Notably, Bitcoin bottomed 22% from the 2017 peak during the last cycle’s correction. Now, it is trading roughly 14% below the 2021 peak of $69,000, which could suggest the bottom may be approaching. However, the analyst affirmed that this metric alone “doesn’t represent the mosaic of data that we need to be paying attention to.” He stated that the length of previous bear markets is a crucial indicator to factor in, noting that, historically, Bitcoin bear markets tend to last at least one year, sometimes extending beyond that. For instance, the flagship crypto took approximately 365 days to complete its full corrective phase during the 2021-2022 bear market. The current pullback has lasted about 240 days so far, which would depart from historical behavior and make it significantly shorter than previous cycles if the bottom is already in or close. If the current cycle follows a similar timeline to previous ones, BTC could have at least 120 days left in its corrective phase, with the bottom likely occurring around October and the possibility of further extension if the cycle mirrors longer historical patterns. Bitcoin Bottom Another 20% Below? The analyst highlighted that while the duration of the bear market is important, the depth of its retracement is another crucial factor. Last cycle, Bitcoin dropped 77%, while it declined 84% during its 2018 bear market. Nonetheless, the pullback has only reached 53% so far this cycle, suggesting there may still be room for additional downside. Based on this, he emphasized the trend of shallower bear markets, with the correction’s depth progressively diminishing roughly 7%-10% each cycle. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see a potential retracement near 70% this cycle, placing BTC’s bottom in the high $30,000 range. Meanwhile, if the shallowing trend accelerates toward a 10% reduction, the bottom could form near the low $40,000 region. Related Reading: Bitmine Makes Largest Ethereum Purchase Of 2026 As Tom Lee Dismisses Market Selloff These factors point to a critical period over the next four to five months, the analyst affirmed, in which another leg down of up to 20% remains possible. He noted that similar phases have historically included periods of consolidation followed by additional declines before the final bottom forms. Ultimately, Rekt Capital asserted that this period is crucial as it lays the foundation for the next bull cycle. “This bear market here (…) precedes an entire period of multi-year upside. And I think that’s why it’s important, as a result, to focus on the importance of this bear market bottoming out period over these next few months because we’ll then see a multi-year period of upside,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is at a pivotal level as geopolitical tensions rise and bearish setups emerge, prompting some analysts to warn of a potential 15% correction if a critical support area doesn’t hold. Related Reading: Dogecoin Rally Loading? Analyst Eyes ‘Imminent Breakout’ From Textbook Falling Wedge Pattern Bitcoin Eyes Channel Support For Next Move Following news of renewed US strikes against Iranian targets, Bitcoin dropped roughly 5% from $76,000 to a one-month low of $72,589. At the start of the week, the cryptocurrency had been trading between $77,000-$78,000 after recovering from last week’s pullback. However, the growing geopolitical tensions have pushed the price toward a critical area. Analyst Ali Martinez affirmed that BTC reached a major support zone after losing the $75,000-$76,000 area. He previously said that leading crypto has been consolidating inside an ascending channel that has been developing since the early February crash, with two crucial levels likely to define the direction of its next move. As he explained, if Bitcoin broke above the $78,258 resistance, it could trigger a rally toward the $84,000 barrier, while breaking below the $75,733 support could push the price toward the late March-early April lows. Now, the price is consolidating at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which could set the stage for a 15% drop. According to the post, the channel’s floor aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, making the current price levels a crucial area. “This cluster between $73,000 and $71,300 serves as a major structural floor,” he stated, noting that if buyers defend this zone, a “steady expansion back toward $77,000 or even $79,500” could be expected. On the contrary, he warned that if Bitcoin loses the $71,300 flows, “it would open the door to an extended value window near the February base of $60,000.” BTC Bearish Setup Signals Risk Of Further Decline Market observer Mister Crypto shared a bearish outlook on the flagship crypto, citing a textbook bearish formation on BTC’s daily chart. According to the trader, Bitcoin has been forming a Head and Shoulders pattern since mid-April, with the setup’s neckline around the $75,000 level. The chart shows that the cryptocurrency formed the left shoulder during the late April pullback and later developed the head during this month’s rally. Meanwhile, the pattern’s right shoulder began forming after the rejection from the $82,500 resistance. The trader affirmed that the pattern is playing out “almost perfectly,” which “confirms the bearish thesis” and suggests a drop to lower levels may be around the corner. “Now that we have broken back into the range after losing $75,000, the probability of a move toward the range lows around $63,000 is increasing,” the analyst wrote. Similarly, analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is “putting in a similar reaction after that horizontal level and Daily 200MA/EMA retest compared to January this year.” Related Reading: BitMine Nears 4.5% Ethereum Supply Share Following $238M Buy Notably, BTC consolidated above the early November lows for roughly two months before rallying mid-January toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the crucial $98,000 horizontal level. The cryptocurrency was rejected from this area, briefly consolidating near the local lows before breaking down toward new lows. Now, the price has seen a similar performance, retesting and rejecting from both the horizontal $80,000 level and the 200-day MA and EMA. As a result, the analyst considers that BTC will see “another lower high in the bigger down trend until proven otherwise.” Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com