Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide. Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset. The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually. However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it. He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets. Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity. Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash. If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle. Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026. What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the sell-off reflects cycle dynamics and macro risk-off forces — not a repeat of 2022’s systemic collapse.
The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that the stress could spread more broadly across the sector. The number of publicly traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly. As a result, Bitcoin has slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major Companies Suffer Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday. In December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support dividend payments. The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices. Alt5 Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its sharp sell‑off on Thursday, briefly falling below the $67,000 level and marking its lowest price since November 2024. The renewed pressure follows commentary from market analyst Hugo Crypto, who pointed to a recent report from investment bank Stifel outlining a notably bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Deeper Bitcoin Drawdown Ahead? According to Stifel’s analysis, the leading cryptocurrency could continue declining toward $38,000. If reached, that target would represent an additional drop of roughly 43% from current levels and would place Bitcoin back at prices last seen in January 2024. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Stifel’s forecast is built on several macro and market‑specific factors. The firm cited the impact of tighter US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, ongoing uncertainty and stagnation around US crypto regulation, shrinking market liquidity, and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). The bank also framed its outlook within the context of historical Bitcoin market cycles. According to Stifel, Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025 fits a familiar pattern seen in prior cycles, which have typically been followed by extended and deep drawdowns. Additional warnings were echoed by market observer Walter Bloomberg, who highlighted weakening demand, a sharp slowdown in ETF inflows, and growing stress in derivatives markets. Futures markets, in particular, appear to be entering what he describes as a “forced deleveraging” phase, where leveraged positions are unwound rapidly, adding to selling pressure. BTC Faces Key Technical Test ETF data from Thursday further illustrates the strain on market sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have so far recorded net outflows of approximately 7,925 BTC on the day, equivalent to about $533 million. Over the past seven days, net outflows have totaled roughly 19,090 BTC, or around $1.28 billion, reinforcing concerns that institutional demand is fading rather than providing support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash To $72,000 Signals Major Reset: On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate From a technical perspective, analyst MartyParty highlighted the importance of the $68,000 level, which Bitcoin would need to reclaim to stabilize in the near term. This area aligns with the 200‑week exponential moving average, a level often viewed as critical during major market corrections. Failure to hold above that zone could open the door to a move toward the 200‑week simple moving average, currently near $58,000, according to technical analysts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $67,100, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 20% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Tuesday, erasing all gains since its 2021 peak and leaving the asset down nearly 30% year-over-year.
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn. The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market. Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market. With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases. Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness. Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction. Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds. Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Analysts say the latest crypto selloff has been marked by fragmented liquidity, tight rotation and dispersion rather than pure capitulation.
Crypto press release services often provide misleading marketing content, creating an illusion of legitimacy by placing unverified announcements alongside legitimate news.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released a new analysis of the current state of the crypto market, arguing that the industry has been firmly entrenched in a bear market for over a year. In a report shared on social media, Hougan stated that his research indicates the current downturn began as early as January 2025, despite widespread optimism fueled by institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to new all-time highs. Deep Bear Market Driving Crypto? Posting on X, formerly Twitter, Hougan pushed back against the idea that recent price weakness represents a routine pullback or short‑term dip. Instead, he described the current environment as a full‑scale crypto winter comparable to past downturns in 2018 and 2022. Interestingly, Hougan said the crypto market currently resembles a “2022‑like, Leonardo‑DiCaprio‑in‑The‑Revenant‑style” winter, driven by excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit‑taking by long‑time crypto holders. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Hougan addressed a question many investors have been asking: why prices continue to fall despite a steady stream of positive developments. He pointed to expanding institutional involvement, improving regulation, and broader adoption as clear long‑term positives, but said none of that typically matters during the deepest phase of a bear market. According to Hougan, crypto winters are periods when good news is largely ignored, regardless of its significance. Even developments such as Wall Street firms hiring aggressively or major banks like Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto exposure are unlikely to spark a rally in the short term. He also cited market sentiment indicators to support his view. Hougan noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, even as the newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is publicly supportive of Bitcoin. To him, this disconnect underscores how deeply negative sentiment has become. Drawing on past cycles, Hougan said crypto winters rarely end with renewed excitement or optimism. Instead, they typically conclude when investors are exhausted and disengaged. ETF Support Propped Up Bitcoin? Looking to history, Hougan observed that previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming a year later, and again peaked in October 2021 before hitting its low point in November 2022. By that measure, the current cycle might suggest more pain ahead, particularly since Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025. However, Hougan argued that focusing solely on that date misses a critical detail. In his view, the current winter actually began in January 2025 but was partially hidden by extraordinary institutional inflows. He said strong demand from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked underlying weakness across much of the crypto market. Hougan emphasized the scale of institutional support for Bitcoin in particular, calling it unprecedented. During the period he analyzed, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased more than 744,000 BTC, representing roughly $75 billion in buying pressure. He suggested that without this support, BTC’s price could have fallen by as much as 60%. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Despite this, Bitwise CIO suggested several possible catalysts that could help lift sentiment and mark the beginning of a crypto recovery, including strong global economic growth that reignites risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time. Reflecting on his experience through multiple crypto market cycles, he said the current mood of despair, fatigue, and malaise closely resembles the final stages of past crypto winters. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off. He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months. He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The analysts outlined three crypto-driven bear case scenarios while reiterating their view that the crypto cycle could recover in 2026.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp sell‑off has intensified pressure on Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, even as it continues to expand its already massive cryptocurrency holdings. On Monday, the firm disclosed another BTC purchase at a time when prices were sliding to levels not seen in almost a year. Strategy Adds Bitcoin During Market Sell‑Off According to a securities filing released on Monday, Strategy acquired an additional 855 Bitcoin over the prior seven days, paying an average price of about $87,974 per token. The transaction amounted to roughly $75.3 million and further increased the company’s exposure to Bitcoin. The timing of the purchase, however, coincided with a steep downturn in the broader crypto market. Bitcoin fell below Strategy’s average acquisition cost toward $74,500, adding to investor unease. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? That price sat slightly below Strategy’s reported average purchase price of $76,052 per Bitcoin, raising concerns that the company’s sizable holdings could move underwater if the decline deepens. Market reaction was swift. MSTR fell 8% on Monday as Bitcoin slid below that average cost level. When Bitcoin briefly sank to its lowest point since April 2024, the value of Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings stood at approximately $53.1 billion. A subsequent rebound toward around $79,000 lifted the valuation of the company’s Bitcoin position beyond $55 billion, offering some relief but little clarity on near‑term direction. Worst In The Nasdaq 100 So far, Strategy’s shares have suffered a steep decline. The stock is down 48% in 2025, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100 index. For comparison, the second‑worst stock in the index, Charter Communications, has fallen 39% over the same period, underscoring the scale of Strategy’s underperformance. Amid these challenges, Strategy is also scheduled to release its fourth‑quarter 2025 results on Thursday. Wall Street expectations suggest modest top‑line pressure but a sharp improvement in profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for fourth‑quarter revenue of $119.6 million, representing a 0.91% decline from the same period a year earlier. Earnings, however, are projected at $46.02 per share, unchanged over the past month and a dramatic turnaround from a loss of $3.20 per share reported in the prior‑year quarter. Analysts expect the company’s fourth‑quarter performance to reflect continued financial momentum, driven largely by Bitcoin‑related gains and disciplined capital allocation. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers By the end of January 2026, the firm’s Bitcoin holdings had climbed to approximately 712,647 BTC, up from 640,808 as of Oct. 26, 2025, further increasing its sensitivity to price movements in the digital asset. Still, recent share price performance highlights the risks tied to that strategy. Over the past three months, MSTR has fallen 43.4%, significantly underperforming the broader Finance sector, which gained 4.3% over the same period. The stock has also lagged other Bitcoin‑exposed companies. During that timeframe, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Coinbase Global posted declines of 25.3%, 32.0% and 41.1%, respectively, pointing to widespread weakness among Bitcoin proxy stocks, though none have fallen as sharply as Strategy. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Hyperliquid, the decentralized exchange (DEX) behind the HYPE token, surprised the market on Monday with a new product initiative that ran counter to the prevailing bearish sentiment across the crypto sector. As several major cryptocurrencies slipped below important technical levels, Hyperliquid’s native token jumped roughly 14% following the announcement, signaling renewed investor interest despite broader market weakness. Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4 Proposal The rally was triggered after the Hyperliquid team revealed details of HIP‑4, a proposal that introduces outcome‑based trading to the platform. Shared via the social media platform X (previously Twitter), the announcement explained that HyperCore — Hyperliquid’s Layer‑1 blockchain engine — will soon support so‑called “outcomes.” These are fully collateralized contracts designed to settle within a predefined range. Unlike traditional leveraged derivatives, outcome contracts do not rely on leverage or liquidations, offering a different approach to derivatives trading. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now According to the team, outcomes are intended as a general‑purpose building block that can power use cases such as prediction markets and bounded, options‑like instruments, areas where user demand has been growing. Following the news, HYPE managed to hold firmly above the psychologically important $30 level and was trading near $33.22 at the time of writing. Over the past week alone, the token has surged approximately 48%. The move stands in stark contrast to the performance of the wider market. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) fell around 10%, Ethereum (ETH) dropped roughly 18%, and Binance Coin (BNB) slid about 11%. Challenging Polymarket And Kalshi Beyond price action, the Hyperliquid team emphasized the broader implications of the outcome primitive for its ecosystem. Outcomes introduce non‑linear payoff structures and fixed‑duration contracts, expanding the range of financial products that can be built on HyperCore. These contracts are also designed to work alongside existing components such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM, increasing the overall flexibility of the platform’s infrastructure. At this stage, outcomes remain under development and are currently being tested on Hyperliquid’s testnet. The team noted that standardized, or “canonical,” markets based on objective settlement sources will be launched once development is finalized. Depending on community feedback, Hyperliquid plans to eventually open the system to permissionless deployment, allowing a wider range of users and builders to create their own markets. Market researcher DeFi Ignas described the proposal as an important innovation, highlighting how outcome contracts could be combined with perpetual futures to create more efficient hedging strategies. As an example, he explained that a trader could hold a long ETH perpetual position while simultaneously purchasing an outcome contract that pays out if ETH falls below a certain price level, such as $2,000. According to Ignas, this type of composability is not currently possible on prediction platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi. Ignas also pointed to permissionless market creation as another potential differentiator. HYPE Battles Major Resistance HYPE’s price behavior reflects the instability of the crypto market, despite the euphoria surrounding Hyperliquid’s HIP-4. From a technical sense, $28 served as a major support level during the weekend, preventing further losses. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch On the upside, resistance near $34 has capped gains on multiple occasions, including two failed attempts to break higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Whether HYPE can decisively clear this resistance is likely to determine whether the recent rally extends further or gives way to another short‑term correction. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday. The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated. They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum. While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart. If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully. A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact. If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has fallen below $78,000 as crypto and precious metals sell off in tandem amid ETF outflows, liquidation pressure and Fed uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s price action has fallen into bearish territory after dropping below an important previous low that had supported the rally for months. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,560 after falling to as low as $77,082 in the past 24 hours, a move that crypto analyst XForceGlobal says represents a significant change in the technical structure. According to his detailed Elliott Wave analysis shared on X, the price action has now invalidated the bullish framework many traders were relying on, and lower levels are becoming more likely in the coming weeks and months. Related Reading: Ethereum Boost: Vitalik Buterin Sets Aside $45M In ETH For Privacy And Open Tech Breakdown Below Previous Low Changes Primary Wave Count According to XForceGlobal, Bitcoin had been working through a complex sideways structure, specifically a WXY combination that was expected to resolve through distribution rather than outright breakdown. Bulls managed to complete three of the five required components of this triangle-like structure, but the failure to defend the prior low was the signal that led to a structural shift. This prior low refers to the $82,000 low in November 2025. Bitcoin bulls failed to defend this low when the price action broke below $80,000 in the most recent 24 hours. Once that level gave way, the primary wave count could no longer be maintained. In terms of the Elliott Wave count, that lower low means that price action from the all-time high should now be treated as separated and corrective, not part of a healthy continuation. This restructuring gives the current decline more room to develop from a Fibonacci extension perspective and changes how minimum and maximum downside targets should be evaluated. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @XForceGlobal On X Two Bearish Scenarios Point To The Same Zone The resulting analysis shows two main scenarios of how Bitcoin’s price action can continue from here, both of which are converging on similar downside levels. The first is a flat correction, where Bitcoin is currently unfolding a C wave. Although XForceGlobal describes this as the least attractive option, it would still imply a full distribution range that invalidates a bullish structure and drags the Bitcoin price to as low as $60,000. The second scenario is a macro ending diagonal structured as a WXY move to the downside. This scenario uses the October 2025 all-time high above $126,000 as a cut point to improve wave separation of the current price action. Interestingly, the price projection from this scenario also aligns with targets in the same $60,000 area. Despite different technical paths, both interpretations point to comparable downside risk over the medium timeframe. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Now that the larger structure is now compromised, XForceGlobal says it makes sense to adopt a shorter-timeframe bearish bias while reorganizing the next wave count. The outlook is that Bitcoin continues its decline to at least $60,000 before rebounding to stage a return above $100,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s sharp weekend drop triggered fresh liquidations, with analyst Eric Crown warning the market may face months of further downside.
Long-term bitcoin holders are selling at the fastest pace since August, while some industry observers suggest the market may be approaching a bear-market bottom.
United States President Donald Trump has unveiled former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick for the next chair of the US central bank. This move confirms the circulating rumors after the former Fed governor reportedly met with Trump at the White House on Thursday, January 29. Trump Pushes Warsh To Senate For Fed Chair Position On Friday, January 30, Trump, via his social media platform Truth Social, announced his nomination of ex-Fed official Kevin Warsh as the successor of Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve chairman. Prior to this announcement, prediction platforms had heavily tipped Warsh as Trump’s likely pick. Related Reading: Why Litecoin Price Going To $2,000 Is Not A Fantasy, But Market Cap Math Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and held senior roles at the White House National Economic Council during former President George Bush’s administration. The former Morgan Stanley banker was considered for the Fed chair job in 2017 before Powell was eventually appointed. Trump said in his announcement: I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down. Congratulations Kevin! Warsh has been a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy long before Powell became chair. Unsurprisingly, his recent stance appears to align with Trump’s agenda of lowering interest rates. In fact, the former Wall Street executive said in an interview last July that President Trump was right to push the Fed to cut rates. Trump’s nomination of Warsh as the Fed chair still needs to be confirmed by the US Senate, with many commentators expecting a battle between the executive and legislative arms. While Trump seeks a Fed chair that listens to the White House, a homage that Powell has refused to pay, the Senate believes the Federal Reserve should function independently. What Does Warsh’s Selection Mean For Crypto? Warsh and Powell seem to be on opposite sides of the divide when it comes to the cryptocurrency industry and Bitcoin. While the current Federal Reserve chair has consistently played down BTC’s relevance in the greater US economy, Warsh has been fairly positive about the world’s largest cryptocurrency. In a recent conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution, Warsh said that Bitcoin is an important asset that doesn’t trouble him, and he doesn’t view the coin as a substitute for the dollar. “Bitcoin can help inform policymakers when they are doing things right or wrong,’ the former Morgan Stanley banker said. Related Reading: Bitcoin Needs Deeper Liquidity Before A Real Recovery Takes Shape: Analysts Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Thursday, extending the downward trend seen throughout the week and briefly falling below the closely watched $85,000 level, despite progress on long-awaited US crypto legislation failing to lift market sentiment. Crypto Prices Fall Despite Regulatory Progress The decline came on the same day the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the proposed crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act. While the committee’s action was widely viewed as a positive development for the digital asset industry, it did little to support prices in the short term. Related Reading: White House To Host Crypto And Banking Leaders In Push To Break Regulatory Deadlock Instead of triggering a rally, the news coincided with a sharp market sell‑off. Bitcoin dropped by roughly $2,700 in a short period, setting off a wave of liquidations that erased an estimated $356 million in long positions. Data from Coinglass further shows that total liquidations across the crypto market reached about $803 million over the past 24 hours, including roughly $693 million in long liquidations and $109 million in short liquidations. Bitcoin Hovers Near Breakdown Levels As earlier reported by Bitcoinist, the CLARITY Act cleared an important procedural hurdle earlier on Thursday when the Senate Agriculture Committee approved its section of the bill during a scheduled markup. The legislation aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. With the Agriculture Committee’s approval secured, lawmakers must merge the provisions that expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) role with parallel sections overseen by the Senate Banking Committee, which address the Securities and Exchange Commission’s jurisdiction. At the same time, legislators will need to determine whether bipartisan backing can still be achieved for a measure that could significantly reshape crypto regulation in the US. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns From a technical perspective, market analyst Rekt Capital said that in the near term, Bitcoin needs to prevent the former range low around $86,000 from turning into resistance on lower time frames. He added that a weekly close above that level would be necessary to avoid a deeper breakdown. According to his analysis, a decisive break below the roughly $86,000 area could open the door to another test of the macro triangle bottom near $82,500. A further drop below that level, he cautioned, would signal an acceleration of bearish momentum. As of now, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has only briefly recovered to $85,135. However, it is still far from reaching the critical level outlined by the analyst. Therefore, Friday’s price action will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns. In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is spreading beyond short‑term traders and gradually affecting longer‑term holders. In previous market cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator started trending upward well before prices reached their eventual lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs During those periods, Bitcoin prices continued to decline even after the metric turned higher, with true market bottoms forming only once supply in loss expanded much further and broader capitulation set in. At present, CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s supply in loss remains well below levels typically associated with full market capitulation. However, the change in direction itself is significant. The analysts say it suggests the market may be shifting into a bearish structural phase, rather than experiencing a brief correction within an ongoing bull market. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to reflect that uncertainty. The asset is currently trading around $89,700 and has struggled to reclaim the key $90,000 level as support. This follows a steady decline from earlier yearly-highs near $98,000, where upward momentum faded as buying pressure weakened and gains recorded at the start of the year were fully erased. US Dollar Tests Historic Zone For Bitcoin Rallies Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts believe the outlook is entirely negative. Analysts at Bull Theory have highlighted a potentially bullish catalyst that could emerge in the months ahead, centered on movements in the US dollar. In a recent post on social media platform X (previously Twitter) the firm pointed out that the US Dollar Index is testing the same zone that preceded major Bitcoin bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. According to their analysis, the Dollar Index has broken below a long‑term trendline that has held for roughly 16 years and is now hovering around the critical level of 96. Historically, periods when the DXY fell below 96 and remained there coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis As seen in the chart below, in mid‑2017, the index dropped under that level, after which Bitcoin surged nearly eightfold over the following five to six months. A similar pattern played out during the 2020 pandemic era. When a wave of liquidity entered financial markets at the time, the DXY again slipped below 96, and Bitcoin went on to rise roughly seven times over the next seven to eight months. During that same period, Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins posted gains of tenfold or more. For now, the market sits at a crossroads. On‑chain data points to early bear‑market dynamics, while macro signals linked to the US dollar offer a counter‑narrative that could favor renewed strength. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The White House is set to bring together senior figures from the banking and crypto industries on Monday in an effort to break the deadlock over the crypto market structure bill, namely the CLARITY Act, according to a Reuters report. The planned meeting comes as progress on the bill has stalled amid growing tensions between the two sectors over how digital assets should be regulated. White House Crypto Council To Lead Talks People familiar with the matter said the meeting will be organized by the White House’s crypto council and will include executives from several industry trade groups. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs Discussions are expected to focus on one of the most contentious aspects of the legislation: whether and how crypto firms should be allowed to offer interest or other rewards on customer holdings of stablecoins. The anticipated market structure legislation has been under consideration in the Senate for several months. It is intended to establish a comprehensive federal framework for regulating digital assets following the passage of the GENIUS Act last July. Stablecoin Rewards Clash With Bank Stability Fears The House of Representatives passed its version of the bill in July, but progress in the Senate has been slower. Earlier this month, the Senate Banking Committee was scheduled to debate and vote on the measure. However, the markup was postponed after cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) withdrew its support for the bill and criticized various elements of it, including stablecoin rewards. Crypto representatives argue that offering rewards such as interest is essential to attracting and retaining customers. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis Banks, on the other hand, have raised alarms that allowing crypto platforms to pay yield on stablecoins could draw deposits away from insured lenders. Since deposits are the primary source of funding for most banks, industry representatives warn that a significant outflow could pose risks to financial stability. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market’s largest cryptocurrency. Rate Cut Odds Fade The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Economists surveyed by financial data provider FactSet anticipate the federal funds rate — the benchmark rate banks use for overnight lending — will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Such a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: XRP Outlook For 2026: AI Model Signals New Record Ahead — Can Price Reach $6? Despite that earlier momentum, the Bitcoin price has struggled to maintain its footing. Ahead of the FOMC decision, the cryptocurrency is trading near $87,780, roughly 30% below the all‑time highs reached last year. Market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to Bitcoin’s historical behavior around FOMC meetings as a reason for caution. In a recent post on X (previously Twitter) Martinez highlighted that expectations for a January rate cut are extremely low, estimated at just 2.8%, signaling that meaningful policy easing is unlikely in the near term. That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed’s policy meetings. Of the eight FOMC decisions held during the year, seven were followed by notable declines for the Bitcoin price. The January meeting was followed by a 27% drop, March saw a 14% decline, June was down 8%, July slipped 6%, September fell 7%, October recorded a 29% pullback, and December ended with a 9% loss. The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision. Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision Zone From a technical and on‑chain perspective, analyst BitBull also sees the Bitcoin price approaching a critical moment. BitBull noted on social media that the asset has entered what she describes as a key on‑chain decision zone. At current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven. Related Reading: Tether Reveals Massive Gold Accumulation In Q4: Adds 27 Tons To Reserves BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater. As a result, any upward move toward that zone could face selling pressure as traders look to exit at reduced losses. On the downside, the True Market Mean at around $80,700 has historically marked the boundary between a “routine correction and deeper structural weakness.” Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests that long‑term holders remain firmly in profit and largely unshaken by recent volatility. BitBull argues if the Bitcoin price can maintain support above the $87,500 level, it would indicate that active capital is defending its position and that broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level, however, could open the door for a move toward $80,700. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis has released a new report highlighting a sharp escalation in crypto-based money laundering, warning that Chinese-language money laundering networks are emerging as one of the most serious and rapidly growing threats in the digital asset ecosystem. The Rise of Chinese‑Language Networks In Crypto Crime According to the report, illicit on‑chain money laundering activity has expanded dramatically over the past five years. In 2020, crypto-related laundering was estimated to be around $10 billion. By 2025, that figure had climbed to more than $82 billion. A key driver behind this growth has been the rapid rise of Chinese‑language money laundering networks, often referred to as CMLNs. In 2025, these networks accounted for roughly 20% of all identified illicit crypto laundering activity on‑chain. Related Reading: XRP Outlook For 2026: AI Model Signals New Record Ahead — Can Price Reach $6? Chainalysis noted that this regional concentration is further supported by off‑ramping behavior observed on the blockchain. As detailed in the report, CMLNs now routinely launder more than 10% of funds stolen through so‑called “pig butchering” scams. The pace at which these networks have grown stands out even within the broader crypto crime landscape. Since 2020, inflows to identified CMLNs have increased 7,325 times faster than those to centralized exchanges (CEXs). Growth has also outstripped other laundering channels, expanding 1,810 times faster than decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and 2,190 times faster than illicit on‑chain flows that remain within criminal ecosystems. While CMLNs are not the only actors involved in crypto laundering, Chainalysis found that Chinese‑language, Telegram‑based services now represent a disproportionately large share of attributed global laundering activity. Cross‑Border Crime At Scale The report also shows that CMLNs function openly across multiple platforms and rely on complex, multi‑layered systems. Their operations are characterized by industrial‑level processing capacity and a high degree of technical sophistication. In 2025 alone, Chainalysis identified six distinct service types that together form the CMLN ecosystem. Combined, these services processed $16.1 billion in illicit inflows during the year. The number of active entities within these networks has also grown rapidly, expanding from a small number of wallets just a few years ago to more than 1,799 active on‑chain wallets in 2025. Related Reading: Tether Reveals Massive Gold Accumulation In Q4: Adds 27 Tons To Reserves Tom Keatinge, Director at the Centre for Finance & Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said the speed and scale of these networks are the result of converging global forces. He noted that Chinese money laundering networks have rapidly evolved into “multi‑billion‑dollar cross‑border operations” offering efficient and competitively priced services to organized crime groups across Europe and North America. Chris Urben, Managing Director at Nardello & Co, highlighted another major shift within these networks. He explained that Chinese money laundering groups have increasingly moved away from informal value transfer systems, such as traditional underground banking methods. Instead, Urben emphasized that these criminals have embraced cryptocurrencies as a “faster and more discreet way” to move funds across borders, eliminating the need for complex manual ledgers spread across multiple jurisdictions. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Tether, the company behind the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, has disclosed a substantial expansion of its gold holdings, underscoring a growing shift toward hard‑asset backing amid uncertainty across crypto and traditional financial markets. Tether Expands Gold‑Backed Stablecoin Reserves Gold crossed the $5,000 per ounce threshold for the first time on Monday, a milestone that market observers had not previously seen. Prices briefly climbed to around $5,110 per ounce as safe‑haven demand accelerated. Tether revealed that it significantly increased its gold exposure during the fourth quarter of 2025. The company disclosed that gold‑backed stablecoins (XAU₮) experienced rapid growth throughout the year, with total market capitalization rising from roughly $1.3 billion to more than $4 billion. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels According to Tether’s attestation report, this expansion was fueled by record‑high gold prices, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and growing demand from both institutional investors and crypto‑native users for fully on‑chain safe‑haven assets. Within the gold‑backed stablecoin sector, Tether Gold emerged as the dominant issuer, accounting for approximately 60% of the total supply in circulation. By the end of the fourth quarter, total physical gold reserves stood at 520,089.350 fine troy ounces. Each token is backed on a one‑to‑one basis by a fine troy ounce of physical gold. At current prices, the total market value of these holdings reached approximately $2.25 billion. Crypto Giant Ranks Among Top 30 Global Gold Holders Tether confirmed that all gold reserves are securely stored in Switzerland and comply fully with the London Good Delivery standards established by the London Bullion Market Association, a key benchmark for institutional gold custody. The scale of Tether’s accumulation has also positioned the company among major global gold holders. Based on data from the International Monetary Fund and a Jefferies report published in late 2025, Tether now ranks within the top 30 gold holders worldwide. Its holdings surpass those of several countries, including Greece, Qatar, and Australia. During the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, Tether Gold Investments added roughly 27 metric tons of gold to its exposure. Related Reading: Crypto Traders Share Odds Of XRP Price Rising 40% This Year, Can It Still Rally? Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s CEO, said the company’s growing role in gold markets carries significant responsibility. He emphasized that Tether Gold is designed to bring clarity and verifiability at a time when confidence in traditional monetary systems is being tested. Ardoino noted that each XAU₮ token represents vaulted physical gold that can be independently verified on‑chain, adding that the product’s rapid growth reflects rising expectations for tokenized assets to meet the same standards as sovereign and institutional reserves. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A new artificial intelligence (AI)–driven outlook for XRP is drawing attention after market analyst Sam Daodu shared projections generated by Claude AI, outlining how the cryptocurrency could perform through the rest of 2026. The forecast presents three distinct price paths for XRP, each shaped by how key factors such as exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand, regulatory clarity, and network activity evolve. Together, the scenarios provide a broad yet structured view of where the fifth-largest cryptocurrency could be headed. Potential 215% Rally Ahead For XRP According to Daodu, Claude AI uses a baseline XRP price of roughly $2.15 and builds its projections around whether market catalysts strengthen or weaken. The model suggests that ETF inflows, exchange balance trends, and growth on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) will be the primary signals determining whether XRP breaks higher, trades sideways, or slips lower by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Global Liquidity Says Bitcoin Is Extremely Undervalued – Here’s The ‘Real’ Figure In the most optimistic scenario, Claude AI predicts XRP would rise to between $4 and $6, representing a potential 215% increase from its current trading price of $1.90. This bullish outcome depends on ETF inflows accelerating beyond $5 billion while exchange balances continue to decline, indicating reduced sell-side pressure. Under this scenario, institutional accumulation would increase spot market demand, while clearer regulatory conditions would help improve overall market sentiment. Claude’s model suggests that once XRP decisively moves above the $3.20 resistance level, tightening liquidity across major trading platforms could magnify even modest buying activity. By late 2026, long-term holders limiting supply could further thin market depth, allowing prices to rise more quickly. However, this outcome would require unexpected positive catalysts and currently sits above what most AI models are forecasting. Base Case Prediction The base case presents a more measured outlook, with XRP trading between $2.00 and $3.00. In this scenario, ETF inflows remain steady but unspectacular, while adoption grows gradually rather than explosively. The model suggests XRP would likely maintain support above $2.00, helped by manageable escrow token releases and incremental improvements to the XRPL that support ongoing transaction growth. Price swings would likely remain contained, with accumulation happening quietly instead of through sharp rallies. By the end of 2026, XRP could settle near the midpoint of this range, reflecting balanced participation from both retail traders and institutional investors. Bearish Outlook Envisions $1.50 – $1.80 On the downside, Claude AI outlines a bearish scenario in which XRP drifts toward the $1.50 to $1.80 range. This outcome would likely unfold if ETF demand weakens and broader macroeconomic pressures intensify. A sustained drop below the $2.00 level could then lead to extended consolidation around the $1.60 support zone. While network activity on the XRPL might continue, momentum in price action would fade as market participants wait for clearer catalysts. Related Reading: Gold Hits Record $5K While Bitcoin Struggles To Keep Pace Ultimately, Claude AI’s forecast points to relative stability around $2.15 in the near term for the cryptocurrency, at least through January, with larger price movements dependent on ETF market inflows exceeding the $5 billion mark. Daodu further pointed out that Claude’s outlook sits between ChatGPT’s more cautious stance and Grok’s comparatively optimistic projections, offering what he describes as a realistic middle ground rather than an extreme outcome. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
A new controversy has surfaced around Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets held by the US government, following allegations raised by blockchain investigator ZachXBT. Controlling Millions In Stolen Government Crypto In a series of posts on social media platform X (previously Twitter), ZachXBT accused John “Lick” Daghita of stealing millions of dollars’ worth of seized digital assets from wallets linked to the US government. John Daghita is the son of Dean Daghita, the president of CMDSS, a firm that publicly states it provides critical services to the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Department of Defense. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels According to the investigation, the alleged theft came to light after a young hacker was provoked during a heated “band for band” argument on social media app Telegram. During the exchange, which was fully recorded, the individual reportedly began screen-sharing his cryptocurrency wallets while boasting about his holdings. Those wallets were later traced to more than $40 million in seized crypto assets that belonged to the US government. ZachXBT’s findings go further, claiming that the individual known online as “John (Lick)” was observed controlling wallets tied to more than $90 million in suspected illicit funds. Among those assets were cryptocurrencies linked to US government seizure addresses associated with the Bitfinex hack. In the recordings reviewed by the investigator, John is seen actively managing multiple wallet addresses while millions of dollars’ worth of Ethereum (ETH) and Tron (TRX) were moved in real time, strongly suggesting direct control over the funds. CMDSS Goes Dark, Suspect Alters Online Identities Shortly after the allegations were made public, CMDSS appeared to remove its digital footprint. The company scrubbed its website, X account, and LinkedIn page. Around the same time, John reportedly began changing his online usernames and deleting non-fungible token (NFT)-related handles from Telegram. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Congestion Could Burn 1 Billion Coins A Year, Developer Claims Despite these efforts, ZachXBT noted that John continued to taunt investigators and even sent him a small amount of ETH from one of the flagged wallets. ZachXBT stated that he plans to return those funds directly to a US government seizure address, underscoring his position that the assets belong to the government. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto traders often assume that meaningful gains need long timelines to take place, and they often give up during the wait and silence. However, crypto has a habit of shattering that belief without warning. History shows that when conditions line up, altcoins do not grind higher over years. They release and erase multiple years of drawdowns in a matter of weeks. That memory was highlighted by a crypto commentator known as Waterman on the social media platform X, who noted a familiar seasonal window between February and late April to early May for an altcoin explosion. Related Reading: Gold Becomes The Whale Safe Haven As Bitcoin Takes A Back Seat Speed Matters More Than Time The most notable example of an altcoin rally season was in 2021, when the entire altcoin market went on a rally to new all-time highs, many of which are still unbroken for some cryptocurrencies. The 2021 cycle delivered some of the clearest reminders of just how fast capital can rotate once momentum takes hold. Solana moved from roughly $20 to $200 in about 50 days, a clean tenfold run. Although Solana has since broken above this peak to register a new all-time high of $293 in January 2025, this was still Solana’s most explosive rally to date. Dogecoin followed an even sharper trajectory, climbing from $0.07 to a peak of $0.73 in under a month due to speculative interest that flowed into other memecoins like Shiba Inu. Unlike Solana, Dogecoin is yet to reclaim or surpass this peak price. Avalanche went further, rallying from around $3 to $60 in less than 40 days, a twentyfold expansion that unfolded faster than most long-term projections ever anticipate. None of these moves required years of development or prolonged accumulation. A Timeframe To Watch Closely Notably, February through late April or early May has more often than not been the period where altcoin performance increases the most. If that pattern repeats, the coming weeks may matter far more than the years that came before them. At the time of writing, the notion of an altcoin season is still impeded by strong Bitcoin dominance. Much of that comes down to how the entire crypto industry ecosystem has changed massively since 2021, especially after the launch of crypto-based ETFs. That steady demand has kept capital inflows concentrated around Bitcoin and slowed the usual rotation into altcoins. Meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have struggled to keep up in terms of price action, even with the launch of Dogecoin ETFs. Although the ETF has boosted visibility, it has not yet resulted into sustained upside. At the same time, investors have become more selective, favoring cryptocurrencies tied to clearer utility. As a result, many crypto communities have been working to create utility for their meme coins. Related Reading: XRP Showing Strength, Analyst Points To $4 Potential Nonetheless, as noted by Waterman, you only need about four to six weeks for an altcoin to wipe out three to four years of suffering. You don’t need one to two years for altcoins to make massive gains. Featured image from YouHodler, chart from TradingView
Technical analysis of XRP’s price action on the 3-week candlestick timeframe chart shows that the cryptocurrency is about to play out a road to the double-digit threshold based on its long-term structure. The analysis, which was shared on the social media platform X alongside a multiyear chart, points to XRP trading in what is labeled Phase 4. At the center of this setup is a clear technical target of a break above the previous all-time high and a run to at least $21.5 Related Reading: XRP Showing Strength, Analyst Points To $4 Potential XRP Price Action In Phases Technical analysis of XRP price action shows that the cryptocurrency has been trading in a series of four phases for more than a decade. One full sequence of four phases unfolded between mid-2013 and mid-2017 as the foundation for XRP’s first rally to price peaks. Since then, a second set of four phases has been developing and following a similar pattern. XRP transitioned into a new phase 1 and phase 2 sequence that led to a 2018 peak for phase 1 and then a pullback for phase 2 between 2018 and 2020. This was followed by an unusually long p3 that stretched from 2019 to mid-2024, visible on the chart as a broad, multi-year consolidation with converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows. During this time, XRP’s price action was trapped inside the compression structure, just like the behavior seen during phase 3 of the first cycle. XRP Price Chart. Source: @amonyx On X Phase 4 Returns: XRP To Double Digits According to the technical analysis, phase 4 began in 2025, when XRP finally broke above the compression range in mid-2024. This breakout was the same structural transition seen in mid-2017, when XRP exited consolidation and entered expansion. Phase 4 has already been in progress for several months and includes the period when XRP rallied to new all-time highs in mid-2025, eventually topping out at $3.65 in July. Since that peak, however, XRP’s price action has been playing out a corrective downward trend and is down by roughly 48% at the time of writing. Despite the ongoing correction, the projection is that XRP is still in phase 4 and is going to break into new all-time highs soon. This shows that phase 4 could unfold over an extended period and not with a single impulse move. The current all-time high of $3.65 is the first major technical hurdle, and a break above it will serve as confirmation that XRP is back into price discovery. Related Reading: Gold Becomes The Whale Safe Haven As Bitcoin Takes A Back Seat Based on this technical analysis, past expansion ratios from the previous cycle are applied and a 6.618 Fibonacci extension is measured from the phase 3 support low. This points to a projected price level near $21.5. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.89, meaning a move to that level would represent an increase of roughly 1,040% from current prices. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView