Global liquidity specialist Michael Howell used an appearance on the Bankless podcast to deliver a clear, if uncomfortable, message for risk assets: the post-GFC “everything bubble” is ending as the global refinancing machine rolls over, and crypto is late in that cycle rather than at the start of a fresh one. Howell’s starting point is his own definition of liquidity, which diverges sharply from textbook aggregates like M2. “This is the flow of money through global financial markets,” he said. It is not bank deposits in the real economy, but “money that is in the financial markets… it looks at the repo markets, it considers shadow banking,” and “pretty much begins where conventional M2 definitions end.” On his Global Liquidity Index, weekly global liquidity was under $100 trillion in 2010 and now sits “just under $200 trillion” – a doubling in a decade and a half. Howell Flags Liquidity Peak What matters most to him, however, is not the level but the momentum of that liquidity. Howell has identified a remarkably stable 65-month global liquidity cycle that he interprets as a debt-refinancing rhythm. Capital markets, he argues, are no longer primarily about funding new investment: “Something like 70 to 80% of transactions… are debt refinancing transactions. They’re not about raising new capital.” Related Reading: Crypto Crash Is A Forced Crypto Seller Unwind, Glassnode Co-Founders In that world, “debt needs liquidity for rollovers but actually liquidity needs debt,” because roughly three-quarters of global lending is now collateral-backed. The result, as he puts it bluntly, is that “ironically it’s old debt that finances new liquidity.” To capture the systemic tension, Howell tracks a debt-to-liquidity ratio for advanced economies: the total public and private debt stock divided by the pool of refinancing liquidity. The ratio averages about two times and tends to mean-revert. When it drops well below that level, liquidity is abundant and “you get asset bubbles.” When it rises significantly above, “you start to see a stretched debt-liquidity ratio and you get financing tensions or refinancing tensions and you can see those basically morph into financial crisis.” Right now, he says, “we’re transitioning, unfortunately, out of a period that I’ve labeled the everything bubble,” a phase where liquidity was abundant relative to debt after repeated rounds of QE and emergency support. The COVID era deepened that imbalance by encouraging borrowers to “term out” debt at near-zero rates. “A lot of the debt that then existed was refinanced back into the late 2020s at low interest rates,” he noted. That created a visible “debt maturity wall” later this decade: heavy refinancing needs now coming due into a much tighter funding environment. Shorter-term, Howell is focused on the interaction between Federal Reserve liquidity operations, the rebuilding of the US Treasury General Account and growing stress in repo markets. SOFR, which “you’d actually expect to trade below Fed funds” because it is collateralized, has repeatedly traded above its normal range. “We’ve started to see these repo spreads blow out,” he warned, adding that “it’s not really the extent of these spikes… it’s really the frequency that’s the most important factor.” If trade fails and leveraged positions begin to unwind, “it’s going to turn quite ugly and that could be the start of the end of the cycle.” Related Reading: Crypto Markets Underestimate A Trump-Style Flood Of Rate Cuts: Expert Inside his four liquidity regimes – rebound, calm, speculation and turbulence – Howell places the US firmly in “speculation,” with Europe and parts of Asia in “late calm.” Historically, early and mid-upswings favor equities and credit, peaks favor commodities and real assets, downswings favor cash and then long-duration government bonds. LIVE NOW – The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts,… pic.twitter.com/Ryl3fqHoYR — Bankless (@Bankless) November 24, 2025 The Impact On The Crypto Market Crypto, in his work, straddles categories. “Crypto generally behaves a little bit like a tech stock and a little bit like a commodity,” he said. For Bitcoin specifically, “about 40–45% of the drivers… are global liquidity factors,” with most of the rest split between gold-like behavior and pure risk appetite. On the popular notion of a hardwired four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, Howell is unconvinced. “I don’t really see any evidence of that four-year cycle,” he said, arguing that the 65-month global liquidity/debt-refinancing cycle is the more robust driver. With that cycle projected to peak around now, crypto looks “late stage in the crypto cycle. So it could be over but it might not be.” The structural backdrop, in his view, is unambiguous: “The trend towards monetary inflation… is slated to continue for another two or three decades at least.” Against that, he argues, investors “have to have” monetary-inflation hedges: “It’s not Bitcoin or gold. [It’s] Bitcoin and gold.” Tactically, though, he is cautious. “We’ve not turned bearish risk-off yet, but we are not bullish short-term,” he said – and suggested that upcoming weakness in risk assets might be “a good time to pick up some more” of those long-term hedges. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.96 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As the market bleeds red and most altcoins lose crucial levels, some have suggested that investors must reshape their expectations of the crypto market this cycle and the long-awaited “alt season.” Related Reading: BitMine’s Unrealized Losses Hit $3.7B As Ethereum (ETH) Price Struggles Below $3,000 Old Crypto Cycle Is Gone – Analyst Over the past month, the crypto market has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization due to a series of large-scale liquidations and strong selling pressure since the October 10 pullback, which has sunk investors’ sentiment to its lowest levels in months. Amid this performance, the early Q4 rally buzz has faded, and most altcoins have lost the ground gained during the Q3 market breakout. Market observers have shared their outlook on how the crypto market has changed and what to expect in the future. In October, Nic Carter, crypto investor and partner at Castle Island Ventures, weighed in on the shift in retail sentiment regarding most altcoins. As reported by NewsBTC, he affirmed that the bearish sentiment means the space has matured significantly. Carter explained that crypto is “boring” now because most of the uncertainties that drove much of the historical volatility have been resolved, adding that the industry has also largely derisked as a technological substrate. The investor considers that “crypto natives no longer control the narrative, there’s more serious businesses (which don’t require tokens), there’s less chaos, the whole space has matured significantly.” In a Friday thread on X, the Altcoin Sherpa also discussed the market changes, affirming that the “old cycles” have been “dead” for a while. As he explained, the previous cycles consisted of an euphoric phase, a corrective phase, and an accumulation phase before the start of a recovery phase. He highlighted the performance of Altcoins like Solana (SOL) between 2020 and 2024, noting that “this market environment is gone.” Instead, the analyst believes that the market is in a “hyper-accelerated regime.” Altcoins In A ‘Hyper-Accelerated Regime’ Under this new regime, the market experiences short-term uptrends followed by mid-term downtrends, similar to the price action of altcoins like BONK since late 2023, Altcoin Sherpa added: We have 1-3 months of pump followed by 2-6 months of downtrend and rinse repeat. There is no more euphoria where things go berserk for an entire year. Just 1-3 months and then down. Look how many cycles BONK had in a year or 2. The analyst suggested that investors should not expect 2021 conditions for most altcoins or a traditional “Alt Season,” where most tokens experience massive gains at once. He advised to capitalize when the “good times” arrive and be aware that “price can still die in 3 months.” “Reframe your brain in how you think about alt pumps and ‘alt season’. Coins will still downtrend, just not in a slow bleed. More [of] an accelerated destruction + carnage, Altcoin Sherpa detailed. Related Reading: This Altcoin Soars 20% In One Day Following Major Saudi Arabia Partnership He also noted that, unlike previous cycles, altcoins will also recover “a bit quicker than before,” and won’t take over a year to bottom and accumulate before a new leg up begins again. However, Sherpa affirmed that the lack of an accumulation phase will mean that “the overall coins will NOT have as strong of pumps like they used to,” as that period is what makes the rallies strong. “We aren’t seeing anything close to that anymore,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Raoul Pal believes the crypto cycle is not nearing a peak but entering a longer, more powerful expansion that can run well into 2026, driven by a global liquidity uptrend tied to government debt dynamics. In a special Sept. 25 “Everything Code” masterclass with Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel, the Real Vision co-founder laid out a tightly interlocked framework connecting demographics, debt, liquidity and the business cycle to asset returns—arguing that crypto and tech remain the only asset classes structurally capable of outpacing what he calls the hidden debasement of fiat. Everything Code: Liquidity Is Crypto’s Master Switch “The biggest macro variable of all time,” Pal said, “is that global governments and central banks are increasing liquidity to manage debt at 8% a year.” He separated that ongoing debasement from measured inflation, warning investors to think in hurdle rates, not headlines: “You’ve got an 11% hurdle rate on any investment that you have. If your investments are not hitting 11% you are getting poorer.” Pal and Bittel’s “Everything Code” starts with trend GDP as the sum of population growth, productivity and debt growth. With working-age populations declining and productivity subdued, public debt has filled the gap—structurally lifting debt-to-GDP and hard-wiring the need for liquidity. “Demographics are destiny,” Pal said, pointing to a falling labor-force participation rate that, in GMI’s work, mirrors the inexorable rise in government debt as a share of GDP. The bridge between the two, they argue, is the liquidity toolkit—balance sheets, the Treasury General Account (TGA), reverse repos and banking-system channels—deployed in cycles to finance interest costs that the economy cannot organically bear. “If trend growth is ~2% and rates are 4%, that gap has to be monetized,” Pal said. “It’s a story as old as the hills.” Related Reading: All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red – What’s The Root Cause? Bittel then mapped what he called the “dominoes.” GMI’s Financial Conditions Index—an econometric blend of commodities, the dollar and rates—leads total liquidity by roughly three months; total liquidity leads the ISM manufacturing index by about six months; and the ISM, in turn, sets the tone for earnings, cyclicals and crypto beta. “Our job is to live in the future,” Bittel said. “Financial conditions lead the ISM by nine months. Liquidity leads by six. That sequence is what risk markets actually trade.” In that sequence, crypto is not an outlier but a high-beta macro asset. “Bitcoin is the ISM,” Bittel said, noting that the same diffusion-index dynamics that govern small-cap equities, cyclicals, crude and emerging markets also map onto BTC and ETH. As the cycle accelerates from sub-50 ISM toward the high-50s, risk appetite migrates down the curve: first from BTC into ETH, then into large alternative L1s and, only later, into smaller caps—coinciding with falling BTC dominance. Pal cautioned investors who expect “instant altseason” that they are fighting the phasing of the real economy: “It always goes into the next safest asset first… only when the ISM is really pushing higher and dominance is falling hard do you get the rest.” Part of the recent “sideways chop,” they argued, reflected a sharp TGA rebuild—an exogenous liquidity drain that disproportionately impacts the far end of the risk curve. Bittel highlighted that the $500 billion rate of change since mid-July effectively removed fuel that otherwise would have buoyed crypto prices, while stressing that the drain is nearing an inflection. He also flagged DeMark timing signals pointing to a reversal in the TGA’s contribution to net liquidity. “That should now reverse and work lower into year-end, which then will drive our liquidity composites higher,” he said, adding that the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet at all-time highs has partially offset US drags. Against that backdrop, the pair contend that the forthcoming 12 months are critical. “We’ve got $9 trillion of debt to roll over the next 12 months,” Pal said. “This is the 12 months where maximum money printing comes.” Their base case has policy rates moving lower into a still-subdued but improving cycle, with central banks focused on lagging mandates—unemployment and core services inflation—while early-cycle inflation breadth remains contained. Bittel underscored the sequencing inside inflation itself: commodities first, then goods, with shelter disinflation mechanically lagging, giving central banks cover to cut even as growth accelerates. The implication for portfolio construction, Pal argued, is radical. “Diversification is dead. The best thing is hyper-concentration,” he said, framing the choice not as a taste for volatility but as arithmetic survival against debasement. In GMI’s long-horizon tables, most traditional assets underperform the combined debasement-plus-inflation hurdle, while the Nasdaq earns excess returns over liquidity and Bitcoin dwarfs both. “What is the point of owning any other asset?” Pal asked rhetorically. “This is the super-massive black hole of assets, which is why we personally are all-in on crypto… It’s the greatest macro trade of all time.” Related Reading: Crypto Bloodbath Shakes Market—But Is The Real Storm Still To Come? Bittel overlaid Bitcoin’s log-regression channel—what Pal called the “network adoption rails”—on the ISM to illustrate how time and cycle amplitude interact. Because adoption drifts price targets higher through time, longer cycles mechanically point to higher potential outcomes. He showed illustrative channel levels tied to hypothetical ISM prints to explain the mechanism, from mid-$200Ks if the ISM rises into the low-50s to materially higher if the cycle extends toward the low-60s. The numbers were not presented as forecasts but as a map for how cycle strength translates into range-bound fair value bands. Macro Liquidity Extends The Crypto Bull Run Critically, Pal and Bittel argued the current cycle differs from 2020–2021, when both liquidity and the ISM peaked in March 2021, truncating the run. Today, they say, liquidity is re-accelerating into the debt-refinancing window and the ISM is still below 50 with forward indicators pointing up, setting up a 2017-style Q4 impulse with seasonal tailwinds—and, unlike 2017, a higher probability that strength spills into 2026 because the refinancing cycle itself has lengthened. “It is extremely unlikely that it tops this year,” Pal said. “The ISM just isn’t there, and global liquidity isn’t either.” The framework also locates crypto within a broader secular S-curve. Pal contrasted fiat debasement, which lifts asset prices, with GDP-anchored earnings and wages, which lag—explaining why traditional valuation optics look stretched and why owning long-duration, network-effect assets becomes existential. He placed crypto’s user growth at roughly double the internet’s at a comparable stage and argued that tokens uniquely allow investors to own the infrastructure layer of the next web. On total addressable value, he applied the same log-trend framing to the entire digital asset market, sketching a path from roughly $4 trillion today toward a potential $100 trillion by the early 2030s if the space tracks its “fair value” adoption channel, with Bitcoin ultimately occupying a role analogous to gold inside a much larger digital asset stack. Pal closed with operational advice consistent with a longer, liquidity-driven expansion: maintain exposure to proven, large-cap crypto networks, avoid leverage that forces capitulation during routine 20–30% drawdowns, and match time horizon to the macro clock rather than headlines. “We’re four percent of the way there,” he said. “Your job is to not mess this up.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.67 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Top analyst Miles Deutscher says the crypto market’s apparent fatigue is being misread. In a new video titled “Why The Crypto Bull Run Is Far From Over (Data Says This Happens Next),” the commentator—who has more than 630,000 followers on X—argues that both macro and market-structure signals point to an extended cycle, with Ethereum poised to lead even if Bitcoin cools. Crypto Cycle Dead? Deutscher opens by cutting against a swelling narrative that Bitcoin “has potentially put in a top,” acknowledging that spot price action “objectively looks quite weak at the moment.” Yet, he stresses, “I don’t believe the cycle is over,” and lays out what he considers the telltale sign of a real top—one that he says has not materialized. On the shorter time frame, he notes BTC slipped below a channel low but is attempting to reclaim the mid-range, highlighting a near-term “bearish retest at the H4 money noodle.” He calls the $111.5k area a line in the sand, with a push and hold back above ~$114k needed to repair structure. For clarity, he describes his “noodle” as a custom moving-average style trend gauge: “just our custom indicator which is basically a moving average.” Where Bitcoin looks “a little bit toppy,” Deutscher says Ethereum’s daily structure “paints a very different picture.” ETH, he argues, is showing a classic compression beneath major resistance around its prior all-time high while “grinding above the money noodle,” a configuration he believes sets up “the next expansive leg to the upside” if the daily trend base is maintained. Related Reading: Nearly $1B Wiped Out in Crypto Liquidations: Are Whales Turning the Crash Into a Buying Opportunity? A central plank of his thesis is the cycle’s alignment with broader risk indicators. Reading from a post by trader Nik (@cointradernik), he underscores that several risk-on ratios look like they are bottoming, not topping—US micro caps versus small caps, emerging markets versus the FTSE 100, ARK-style growth versus gold—suggesting the business cycle is still advancing rather than rolling over. In that context, Deutscher contends it would be unusual for crypto to peak now unless it consciously decoupled from equities. He further frames a policy backdrop he sees as supportive, pointing to political rhetoric favorable to crypto assets and the prospect of rate cuts later this year; he characterizes the current market “jitteriness” as a function of timing uncertainty rather than a structural turn. Related Reading: This Altcoin Is A 12,500% Crypto Bet Until 2028, Says Arthur Hayes He also revisits Bitcoin’s higher-time-frame rhythm since 2023 as a sequence of “rally-base-rally” phases with recurring retests of a weekly trend marker. In that pattern, he argues, even a drop toward ~$100,000 would be a textbook bull-market pullback, not a terminal break, especially given what he calls today’s comparatively modest extension above long-term averages versus 2021 and late-2024. “Anyone whose view is that Bitcoin has topped for the cycle here at $124,000 will be deeply disappointed in the relative shallowness of this correction,” he says, asserting that distance to key moving averages leaves less room for a deep retrace. The Altcoin Rotation The most controversial—and for crypto traders, arguably the most consequential—part of Deutscher’s analysis is historical altcoin rotation. He says prior cycles show that Ethereum often does its strongest work after Bitcoin tops. “In 2017 Bitcoin topped and traded 47% lower as Ethereum rallied 100% higher in the next 30 days,” he claims. “In 2021, Bitcoin topped [and] went 27% lower as ETH rallied…83% higher in the next 30 days.” While he is not declaring a BTC top now, he argues the crypto market is already exhibiting a “decoupling” in which ETH and other altcoins are grinding higher against BTC even as Bitcoin softens—proof, in his view, that “using Bitcoin as your ultimate bull-market indicator” for alts can be misleading when Ethereum’s structure is this strong. That view informs his positioning. Rather than longing Bitcoin at support, he says he’s increasingly using BTC dips as “confluence to take a trade on Ethereum because I think Ethereum outperforms from here on out.” On camera, he disclosed a growing ETH long in a public “fun trading account,” while emphasizing that “most people would be better off sticking mostly to spot” and that any use of leverage should be small, deliberate and within strict risk parameters. “There were many times where I’ve screwed up by being over-leveraged,” he cautions. Beyond trade setup and crypto cycle theory, Deutscher returns to his original premise: a genuine cycle top generally coincides with a topping business cycle, deteriorating breadth in risk assets, and blow-off dynamics he says are absent today. Summarizing his stance, he concludes that neither Bitcoin nor altcoins have topped “due to where we are in the business cycle,” and even if BTC does mark a high sooner than he expects, “I wouldn’t necessarily take that as the ultimate bear signal for ETH and alts.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,028. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In a new essay published on Monday, Arthur Hayes—renowned digital asset investor and former CEO of BitMEX—contends that the crypto market is poised to rally strongly in the first quarter of 2025 before topping out sometime in “mid to late March.” Hayes’s latest essay, titled “Sasa,” delves deep into several macroeconomic variables, including US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, US Treasury General Account (TGA) balances, the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), and political uncertainty in Washington. Hayes began his essay by setting a vivid scene from Japan’s Hokkaido ski resorts, likening dangerous backcountry conditions caused by insufficient snow cover over sharp bamboo grass (sasa) to potential market obstacles that could cut short crypto rallies. He observes that 2025 has kicked off amid robust snowfall in Hokkaido—an apt metaphor for what he sees as a liquidity “dumping” that could propel digital asset prices upward. Nonetheless, he warns that the political and fiscal environment in the United States may introduce unexpected hazards. Why March Could Mark The Next Peak For Crypto “As we begin 2025, the question on crypto investors’ minds is whether the Trump pump can continue,” Hayes writes, referencing the initial optimism surrounding President Donald Trump’s second term. While Hayes believes “the high expectations for policy action out of the Trump camp set up the market for disappointment,” he maintains that any short-term negativity could be offset by a powerful “dollar liquidity impulse.” Related Reading: Crypto Trader Nets $17 Million From AI Coins: Here’s What He’s Buying Now Hayes underscores that the Fed’s RRP has been critical for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Since the third quarter of 2022, the facility’s unwinding has correlated positively with crypto and equities prices. “Bitcoin bottomed in Q3 2022 when the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) reached its zenith,” he explains, noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet “Bad Gurl” Yellen facilitated a shift from issuing longer-dated coupon bonds to issuing shorter-dated T-bills. This approach, he argues, effectively drained more than $2 trillion from the RRP, injecting liquidity into global markets. Now, with the RRP falling to almost zero, the Fed has “belatedly changed the policy rate of the RRP” to make it less attractive. Hayes points out that it still represents a potential $237 billion injection into markets once the remaining RRP funds move into higher-yielding Treasury bills. Meanwhile, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) removes $60 billion per month, totaling $180 billion between January and March. Netting both factors yields a $57 billion injection over the quarter. Another major focus in Hayes’s thesis is the Treasury General Account. As debt ceiling negotiations loom, the Treasury’s inability to issue new debt means it can only cover expenses by spending down the TGA—an action that releases liquidity. “Because the aggregate amount of debt cannot rise until the US Congress increases the debt ceiling, the Treasury can only spend funds from its checking account, the TGA,” Hayes writes, noting that the balance stands at around $722 billion. Related Reading: This Week’s Top Crypto Catalysts: What Investors Need To Watch He estimates that without a debt ceiling resolution, the TGA could be exhausted by May or June. For crypto markets, the crux of the matter is the timescale for a deal in Congress. The essay highlights Trump’s narrow majority and the likelihood that Republicans who position themselves as fiscally conservative will not grant quick or easy consent. Democrats, Hayes adds, are unlikely to facilitate enabling more spending for a president they oppose—further fueling legislative brinkmanship. According to Hayes’s calculations, TGA drawdowns could release an additional $555 billion from January through March. If combined with the $57 billion net liquidity from the Fed’s RRP and QT adjustments, total dollar liquidity could rise by as much as $612 billion in the first quarter. Hayes zeroes in on March as the critical juncture—when this liquidity surge might begin to wane and expectations for new federal spending or pro-crypto legislation from the Trump administration may not materialize on schedule. “I believe I answered the question I posed at the outset. That is, the sasa of a letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment,” he states, before concluding that peak liquidity could subside quickly once the market anticipates the debt ceiling’s resolution and the subsequent refilling of the TGA. From a historical lens, Hayes cites Bitcoin’s price action in 2024, which peaked in mid-March around $73,000, then drifted sideways and tumbled just before the April 15 tax deadline. The reasoning, he suggests, is straightforward: as soon as TGA spending has run its course, the net positive liquidity picture reverts to neutral or negative, leaving risk assets vulnerable. While Hayes acknowledges that Chinese credit expansion, Bank of Japan interest rate policies, and the Trump administration’s potential dollar devaluation strategy against other major currencies or gold could upend his timeline, he trusts that RRP and TGA mechanics are reliable near-term gauges. Crucially, these twin sources of liquidity appear powerful enough to overshadow any disappointment about Trump’s policies until at least the end of March. “None of these major macroeconomic issues can be known a priori, but I have confidence in the math behind how the RRP and TGA balances will change over time,” he says, underscoring that the surging crypto and stock markets since late 2022 align with the massive drain in the RRP. Hayes concludes by suggesting that, historically, markets often provide significant selling opportunities in the first quarter. By springtime, investors might want to take profits and “chill on the beach” while waiting for improved liquidity conditions to re-emerge in the second half of the year. “Right on schedule, just like almost every other year, it will be time to sell in the late stages of the first quarter,” Hayes concludes. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $101,344. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com