BlackRock has sharpened the staking posture for its iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB), outlining a plan to keep most of the fund’s ETH staked and earning rewards rather than held in custody. In its latest amended filing, the sponsor said that under normal market circumstances, it would seek to keep 70% to 95% of […]
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Bitcoin remains stuck below the $70,000 mark, a level that once served as a crucial floor for the cryptocurrency but has now turned into its most significant near-term barrier. After losing that support, the asset has struggled to regain momentum, and analysts warn that a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and weak buying pressure could push the asset back into the $50,000 range — a level not seen since September 2024. Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty And ETF Withdrawals Market sentiment has noticeably deteriorated in recent weeks. “Sentiment is clearly bleak in crypto markets,” said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter. She pointed out that although traditional financial institutions continue to make meaningful strides in adopting digital assets, those developments have not translated into stronger prices, which she noted, is weighing further on investor confidence. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days Broader macroeconomic forces are adding to the unease. According to Bloomberg, traders are assessing escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, as well as renewed debate over whether the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI) could extend beyond the technology sector. At the same time, expectations surrounding Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts have shifted back into focus following last week’s inflation data, injecting additional uncertainty into risk markets. Capital flows are not offering much relief. US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with $360 million pulled last week alone. Bitcoin At Risk Of Drop To $50,000 “Macro news has been closely correlated with crypto’s risk profile over the last 12 months,” said Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound as it searches for a new catalyst to revive sentiment. Howard added that a pending US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, expected Friday, could have a more meaningful market impact than routine Federal Reserve minutes or inflation reports. Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 Amid this debate, investors view $60,000 as a pivotal support level for Bitcoin, but that floor could give way if risk appetite weakens further, according to Robin Singh, CEO of crypto tax platform Koinly. Singh cautioned that the market does not yet display the type of deep capitulation typically associated with durable cycle lows. “One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the $50,000s,” Singh said. “This doesn’t have the same full capitulation feel we’ve seen at true cycle bottoms in the past.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $68,000, marking a 29% decline over the past thirty days. Compared to the all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, CoinGecko data shows a 46% difference between the current trading price and the all-time high. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
While much of the market’s attention remains fixed on the Bitcoin (BTC) short-term price outlook for the remainder of the year, some early industry voices are raising a far longer-term concern — one that could introduce as much as $274 billion in potential selling pressure over the next decade. Quantum Risk Debate Grows In a recent post on social media, market expert Crypto Rover pointed to what he described as a growing conversation among early Bitcoin analysts and long-time participants in the space. According to the analysis, the warning is not coming from retail traders reacting to daily price swings. Instead, it is being discussed by so-called “OG” holders — investors who have been involved with Bitcoin since its earliest years. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days The issue at the center of the debate is not macroeconomics or regulatory shifts, but quantum computing. A segment of early adopters believes that advances in quantum technology may no longer be a distant or purely theoretical risk. Within the next five to ten years, they argue, quantum systems could become powerful enough to challenge the cryptographic foundations that secure the Bitcoin network. If quantum machines were able to break or significantly weaken that encryption, older wallets — particularly those using early-generation security standards — could become vulnerable. The concern is not that Bitcoin’s network is currently weak, but that a sufficiently advanced quantum breakthrough could expose dormant coins whose private keys were once thought secure. This is where the potential supply shock comes into focus. Potential Return Of Early-Era Bitcoin An estimated 4 million BTC from Bitcoin’s early years, particularly before 2011, are considered inactive or lost. Markets generally treat those coins as permanently out of circulation, effectively reducing Bitcoin’s usable supply. However, Rover asserts that if quantum computing were ever able to unlock even a portion of those wallets, that supply could theoretically return to the market. To understand the magnitude of such a shift, Rover points to recent history. Since 2020, institutions and corporations have collectively accumulated roughly 3 million BTC, which played a key role in driving BTC from $10,000 to peak levels above $120,000. Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 The expert warns that if 4 million Bitcoin were suddenly viewed as potentially liquid supply, it would represent a long-term overhang far exceeding the scale of recent institutional accumulation. However, Rover highlighted that quantum computing does not represent an imminent danger to Bitcoin’s security. The technology is continuously evolving, and there is no confirmed ability to break modern cryptographic standards at scale. BTC was trading at roughly $67,800 at the time of writing, representing a 2.6% decrease over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Strategy has been quietly adding to its Bitcoin pile for the 12th straight week, refusing to slow down even as prices wobble. Michael Saylor’s chart on social feed grabbed attention again, marking what the firm calls its upcoming 99th BTC trade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Should Be Flying—Instead, Quantum Risk Keeps It Grounded: Analyst The latest buy was 1,142 BTC for just over $90 million, bringing the total on the books to 714,644 BTC — a holding that’s valued at a little over $49 billion at current market rates. Strategy Keeps Buying Reports note that the company’s pattern is simple: buy through weakness. The firm’s purchases have become a steady drumbeat in the market. While others paused or raised cash, the firm added coins below its $76,000 average cost. Critics point to the risk of doubling down when markets slip. Supporters argue accumulation at lower prices widens the margin for long-term gains. 99>98 pic.twitter.com/BsTEvhbc9v — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 15, 2026 Market Signals Signals from the wider crypto treasury sector paint a rough picture. Standard Chartered Bank warned that by September 2025 several big treasury firms were trading with an mNAV below 1 — a sign their shares were priced under the value of the assets they hold. That metric matters because companies with an mNAV above 1 tend to find it easier to raise capital and issue shares to buy more crypto. The sector was already under strain before the October flash crash. The crash then carved deeper losses; Strategy reported a Q4 hit of $12.4 billion, which sent its share price down about 15% at the time, though the stock has recovered some ground and closed recently at $133.80. Bitcoin Price Action Midway through the week, Bitcoin traded near $68,000 after earlier slides, giving a sense of short-term calm. The market’s mood has been pushed and pulled by headlines — geopolitical worries in the Middle East nudged BTC under $78,000 briefly — and that pulled many investors back from risky bets. Altcoins were hit harder, while the largest coin showed relative strength. Traders said the move was a mix of headline risk and a pause in fresh buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break What The Buying Means The buying streak sends a clear message: Strategy believes in holding through volatility. That stance has been rewarded in past cycles but it’s not without cost. The Q4 loss and the hit to the company’s stock show how concentrated exposure can amplify pain. Balance sheets were tested across the sector. For some firms, the market’s price judgment has been unforgiving. Featured image from Bitbo, chart from TradingView
Crypto markets are leaning toward their quietest mood in years, and some analysts say that could be the signal sellers have run out of steam. According to Matrixport, a slump in investor mood has pushed its measures to levels that have in the past lined up with market turning points. Related Reading: XRP Spotlighted In German Media With Bold $9 Projection Crypto Sentiment At Multi-Year Lows According to Matrixport, its Bitcoin fear-and-greed gauge has the 21-day moving average below zero and starting to turn up, which is the kind of shift that in prior episodes marked the end of broad selling. Reports note Alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index sits near 10 out of 100, a reading that lines up with what traders call “extreme fear.” Those are blunt, unsightly numbers. They also tend to make a few investors start looking for bargains. Similar Readings From The Past Past moments with similar readings came after steep drops. June 2024 and November 2025 were named by Matrixport as earlier times when market mood hit comparable depths, and each was followed by at least a temporary change in price action. That pattern doesn’t promise a rebound every time, but it does show how deeply negative views can eventually be absorbed by buyers who step back in at lower prices. ????Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart – February 17, 2026 ⬇️ Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Extreme Lows ⁰— Durable Bottom Are Emerging? #Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed #RiskManagement #Volatility #CryptoResearch pic.twitter.com/WxJg3xrHSf — Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 17, 2026 Technical Indicators Flash Oversold Signals Frank Holmes of Hive says Bitcoin is about two standard deviations below its 20-day trading norm — a rare reading seen only a few times in five years. Reports note that these extremes have historically produced short-term bounces over the following 20 trading days. Bitcoin itself has been moving sharply: it briefly climbed above $70,000 over the weekend, only to fall back about 2.5%, trading near $68,750 at the time of writing. Other trackers report it dipped close to $60,000, marking one of the deepest drops in several years. Traders are keeping a close eye on US GDP and income data, which could influence risk appetite and the next moves for crypto markets. Selling Pressure May Be Near Exhaustion Reports say Matrixport still warns that prices could move lower before any meaningful bottom is cemented. The firm points to a cyclical link between mood and price — deep pessimism often precedes an inflection, but cycles can be messy and extend. Selling pressure can be exhausted and yet new headlines or data can push prices down further before buyers feel confident enough to stay. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break What Traders Might Do Next Some investors see present readings as an attractive entry point, while others prefer to wait for clearer confirmation from price and volume. Long-term holders often point to the underlying network metrics and institutional interest as reasons to remain optimistic, and their positions are being watched closely. Short-term players, by contrast, are taking a cautious stance, using stops, scaling entries, or sitting out until signals firm up. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, investors are increasingly questioning when the cryptocurrency might finally establish its next bottom. According to market expert and technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa, the current bear phase is unlikely to drag on for another full year. In his view, Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader uptrend before year-end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed? In a recent analysis published on X, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows. Accumulation, he explained, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume. Historically, this phase has lasted anywhere from two to four months. Related Reading: Can XRP Hold Above $1? Token Tumbles 11% as Breakdown Fuels Crash Concerns Looking back at previous cycles, Sherpa notes a fairly consistent rhythm. Bitcoin experienced a powerful rally in 2017 and again in 2021, each followed by a steep year-long decline in 2018 and 2022. After those major drawdowns came an extended stretch of accumulation, as seen in 2019 and 2020. From the top in 2017 to the bottom in 2018, and similarly from 2021 to 2022, it took about one year for Bitcoin to complete its downward move. Another common feature of past bear markets, he argues, has been a final capitulation event — a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the end of the downtrend. Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If that interpretation is correct, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation. Accumulation Could Already Be Underway Because the 2024 and 2025 rallies were structurally different, Sherpa believes the decline will also differ. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year from peak to bottom and saw drawdowns of approximately 85% and 75%, respectively, he does not expect the current downturn to mirror that pattern exactly. One reason, he says, is the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although ETF products can and do decline along with the broader market, they have changed the structure of capital flows. He also points to the lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin traded for roughly eight months. From a technical analysis perspective, such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Gives Back Gains, Support Level Under Spotlight As for timing, broader macroeconomic forces — including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and even developments in artificial intelligence — remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa does not think BTC needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom. If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide was indeed the final Bitcoin price capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, that phase has lasted between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days. However, he acknowledges one key risk to his outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another sell-off emerges — for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000— he would interpret that as the definitive bottoming event. In that scenario, accumulation would likely follow for several months. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, a long-running rise in Bitcoin’s value versus gold has stalled. He points to a break in a trend that ran for more than a decade. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break The timing, he argues, lines up with when quantum computing showed up on the radar of Bitcoin developers and when the Quantum Bitcoin Summit took place. That change, he says, has altered how the market thinks about Bitcoin’s future. Quantum Fear And Lost Coins Reports have disclosed that roughly 4 million BTC are effectively out of circulation because their keys are lost. That number matters. Since 2020, corporate buyers and spot ETFs have taken close to 3 million BTC off the market. If some of those lost coins were eventually recovered using powerful quantum machines, supply would expand in a way that markets could not ignore. Woo gives the chance of a network hard fork that freezes any recovered coins at 25%. 12 YR TREND BROKEN. BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold. Should be. IT’S NOT. The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness. Don’t read this post if you want to stay high on hopium instead of seeing things as they are. pic.twitter.com/Qa2YKDlRMp — Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 16, 2026 He also estimates a socalled Q-Day — the point where quantum machines can threaten today’s cryptography — to be about five to 15 years away. Markets, however, do not always wait for an event to actually happen before they price it in. Macro Money Favors Gold Right Now Reports note that broader financial cycles are pushing big pools of capital toward traditional hard assets. Long-term debt cycles are often followed by moves into things seen as safe havens. Sovereign funds and large investors have been piling into gold while Bitcoin stalls. The result: gold rallies while Bitcoin lags, and that gap is what analysts like Woo are trying to explain. Who Says It’s Not Quantum Panic Quantum fears around Bitcoin are not universally accepted. Blockstream CEO Adam Back has said the threat is distant and often overstated, arguing that if quantum computing advances far enough to challenge current encryption, Bitcoin can upgrade its cryptography through network consensus. In his view, the system has time to adjust before any real damage occurs. Prominent Bitcoin educator and author Andreas Antonopoulos has also pushed back, noting that quantum computers would affect banks, governments, and the entire internet—not just Bitcoin. He argues that global security standards would be strengthened long before Bitcoin faced a unique crisis, making the current concern premature. Yet Woo points to unusual flows, including activity by early-era holders. Reports say some Satoshi-era wallets have seen transfers over the last 12 months, and that behavior can change market sentiment fast. Sometimes a few large moves are enough to tilt prices for weeks. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking Bitcoin And Gold: Diverging Paths Amid Market Volatility At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $68,700, indicating market volatility due to the inability to sustain last year’s peak at around $126,000. Gold, for its part, is trading at around $4,950 per ounce due to safe-haven pressures driven by market uncertainty. Bitcoin is still a speculative asset, while gold is a traditional store of value, some analysts say. The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold is relatively weak, almost to the point of being nil, suggesting that these two assets are not correlated and tend to move independently. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to CoinMarketCap, Ethereum changed hands around $2,050 at one point, with a single-session move of about 7%. Reports have disclosed that roughly 30% of the total ETH supply is now locked in staking contracts, a level not seen before. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking That is a big shift in where supply sits, and it matters because locked coins are not available for quick trading. Staking Participation Hits A Record On-chain trackers show a steady climb in staking since early 2023. Back then roughly 15% of the supply was staked; today that figure has roughly doubled. People who lock ETH as validators do it to earn rewards and to help keep the network running. Many of those accounts are built to stay long-term. That matters because long-term holders change how supply and demand play out. Ethereum staking rate just hit a new all-time high. Over 30.5% of all ETH is now staked! Meanwhile ETH is trading at ~$1,950. Since early 2023, the staking rate has gone from ~15% to 30.5% in an almost perfect straight line. Bear market, bull market, crashes, rallies. Doesn’t… pic.twitter.com/8dS4xv7bok — Leon Waidmann (@LeonWaidmann) February 13, 2026 Liquid Supply Has Shrunk When a chunk of coins is tied up, it takes some selling pressure off the market. Locked ETH lowers the pool available on exchanges for fast sales. That does not guarantee a price surge, but it does tighten one side of the market. Traders watching supply flows often weigh that factor alongside macro moves and liquidity conditions. Some traders see this as a slow-burning bullish signal. Others remain cautious because other forces can push prices down even when supply is tighter. Ether Shows Volatility Around $1,900–$2,000 Prices have been bouncy. One day sees gains; the next day shows pullbacks. Reports note that ETH slipped below $2,000 at times as broader crypto momentum cooled. Some sessions point to strength, and some to weakness. Over the last week movement has been uneven. This is a market where headlines and flows still swing prices more than network fundamentals sometimes do. Validator Growth May Support Confidence The rising staking rate also points to growing validator infrastructure and investor patience. More validators means the consensus mechanism has more hands on deck. That has implications beyond price: it affects network security and how rewards are distributed. For many long-horizon investors, that steady build of validators is a reason to remain involved. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break Timing of withdrawal unlocks is on watch lists. So is how quickly new staked ETH can return to exchanges when withdrawals are permitted at scale. Another big item is macro moves—rates, liquidity, and major market shifts. Those will likely control the next big price swings more than staking alone. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to Strategy founder Michael Saylor, the company believes it could meet its obligations even if Bitcoin fell sharply, as low as $8,000. That claim is simple to state. The reality behind it is more complex. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking Debt Cushion And What It Means Reports say the firm currently shows about $6 billion in net debt against its crypto holdings. On paper, a steep drop in BTC’s market value could leave reserves roughly in line with that liability. But balance-sheet math is not the whole story. Timing matters. Liquidity windows, market access, and investor reactions can change the practical options available to a firm under pressure. What management calls a “cushion” could be thin in a stressed market. Strategy can withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt. pic.twitter.com/vrw4z4Ex9q — Strategy (@Strategy) February 15, 2026 Conversion Plan And Shareholder Tradeoffs The company has a plan to equitize certain convertible notes over the next three to six years. That means debt would be swapped for shares rather than rolled into new senior loans. Reports note this moves some risk to shareholders through dilution, and it stretches out deadlines for cash paydowns. Interest remains payable while the notes exist, so the firm is not free of near-term costs. If markets choke up or the share price weakens dramatically, the terms and outcomes of conversion could change. What looks manageable now can be reshaped by turbulent markets. Our plan is to equitize our convertible debt over the next 3–6 years. https://t.co/yRsCuCRNHl — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 15, 2026 Buying Into Decline Buying continued. One recent purchase added 1,142 BTC at a time when unrealized losses stood in the multiple billions. That pattern shows confidence, yet it also increases exposure. Accumulation while holding large paper losses amplifies the company’s sensitivity to Bitcoin swings. Market moves can turn that bet into prolonged volatility for the stock. Investors who trade the shares as a proxy for crypto risk know this all too well. CEO Comments And The Longer Run Reports have disclosed remarks from Phong Le suggesting that an 80% decline would take years to materially damage the operating side of the business. That timeline depends on steady access to credit markets and predictable cash flow. Both can be disrupted when asset prices tumble and lenders grow cautious. The company’s stance assumes no sudden freeze in funding channels. Political Pitch And Broader Appeals Saylor has also urged that the US adopt a reserve posture toward Bitcoin similar to how gold is treated, and he pushes for laws that would favor Bitcoin adoption. Those advocacy moves are positioned as long-term efforts to shape policy. Related Reading: XRP Spotlighted In German Media With Bold $9 Projection Political winds can shift. US President Donald Trump and other leaders may have different priorities, and legislation is a slow process. Based on reports, the filing and public comments sketch a path that can technically withstand a deep BTC slump. That path, however, asks shareholders to absorb volatility and possible dilution while hoping markets remain open long enough to convert and adjust. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
XRP has edged back above $1.40 after weeks of uneven trading, but some investors believe the quiet recovery could be the start of a longer story. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking The token was changing hands near $1.43 at last check, still far from past highs. While the broader crypto market remains cautious, fresh comments from a European investment executive have added fuel to longer-term price discussions. Bold Forecasts From A German Investor During a recent segment on Der Aktionär TV, Michel Oliver, head of Tokentus Investment AG, said XRP could reach between $7 and $9 in a future bull cycle. Based on reports, he tied that projection to growing institutional use of the network and what he sees as its expanding role in global payments. He argued that the token could serve as a core settlement asset if adoption continues at the current pace. Oliver pointed to infrastructure rather than short-term hype. According to him, the foundation is being laid through licensing wins and partnerships that could support larger transaction volumes over time. He stressed that such growth is unlikely to be fully realized in the current market phase, suggesting the bigger move may come after another reset in sentiment. ????German news media says #XRP will be the backbone of the new financial system. Targets mentioned: ▫️ $7–$9 in the near term pic.twitter.com/u79obRShDL — BULLRUNNERS (@BullrunnersHQ) February 10, 2026 Licenses And Network Expansion Reports note that Ripple has secured more than 60 financial licenses worldwide, including an electronic money license in the United Kingdom. That approval allows the firm to operate certain regulated payment services in the region. The regulatory footprint has been expanding steadily, and that progress has been highlighted as a reason for long-term optimism. The base blockchain is called XRP Ledger. It was created to facilitate quick and cheap transactions. XRP is used to facilitate this. The assumption is that as more institutions are added to this ledger, this token could increase. The counterpoint to this is that this doesn’t necessarily translate to an increase in value. Currently, to go from this price to $9, it would be an increase of more than 500%. While this is possible, it has been done before. It requires a lot of money to come into this market. European Access Broadens Access to XRP has broadened within Europe. The crypto exchange Safello has increased access to XRP within more European Union countries. It has done this after receiving authorization under the Markets in Crypto-Assets framework. The exchange has supported XRP trading since December 2025. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Greater availability can improve liquidity. It can also draw new participants into the market. Still, exchange listings alone rarely drive multi-hundred-percent gains. For now, XRP sits in a rebuilding phase. Some investors are watching licensing growth and ETF inflows as early signs of strength. Others remain cautious, noting that infrastructure progress must eventually show up in sustained demand. The coming cycles will determine whether the $7 to $9 range becomes a milestone or remains an ambitious forecast. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Memecoins have taken a beating recently, and what looks like a rout may be closer to a turning point than many traders expect. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Santiment said the sector is showing a classic capitulation signal: widespread talk that meme tokens are “dead” can sometimes mark the moment when buyers quietly return. According to Santiment, this “collective acceptance of the ‘end of the meme era’ is a classic capitulation signal,” pointing out that when a sector of the market is deemed worthless, it is often the “contrarian time” to take note of. Sentiment on social channels has tilted heavily toward fear, and when the crowd gives up on a whole category, prices can move the opposite way for a while. Some traders who stepped back early are now watching closely. Capitulation Can Signal A Turn Reports note that the memecoin market’s recent slide has been steep in raw numbers. Total memecoin market capitalization dropped 34% to $31 billion over the past 30 days, CoinMarketCap data shows. Bitcoin’s pullback — which hit near $60,000 on Feb. 3, the lowest since October 2024 — added pressure across the board and left speculative tokens more exposed. Positioning was concentrated in a handful of names, and when large holders moved to take profits the moves were amplified. Losses were not confined to tiny projects; some of the better known meme tokens gave up meaningful ground. Rotation May Not Lift All Boats Some market observers argue that the old pattern — Bitcoin runs first, then money flows into Ethereum, then to riskier altcoins — may not play out the same way this time around. As institutions grow and trading strategies change, capital could flow more selectively. That means a few tokens might rally strongly while many others are left behind. Reports from traders and analysts say selective strength, rather than a broad upswing, is a likely scenario. That raises the bar for anyone hoping to find the next big winner among dozens of speculative coins. Popular Meme Names Facing Pressure A handful of headline tokens led the decline. Dogecoin (DOGE) gave up support levels it had defended earlier, and PEPE showed heightened volatility as big holders trimmed positions. Official Trump (TRUMP), the politically tied token linked to US President Donald Trump, retraced sharply from its launch highs after the initial hype faded. Heavy concentration of supply in a few wallets left these projects vulnerable to rapid swings, and some gains from last year were erased in short order. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking Watch The Crowd’s Turning Point Contrarian traders will point to the admission of defeat across social feeds as a potential signal to start watching for a bottom. That approach is risky. Losses can deepen before the market finds a floor, and sellers may return on any short-lived recovery. Still, history shows that extreme pessimism can preface meaningful rebounds, especially when broader market pressure eases and liquidity returns. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Congress should move fast on the Clarity Act to give investors and companies a firmer sense of what counts as allowed activity in crypto markets. He argued that clearer rules would calm the recent swings traders have seen and help restore confidence. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Senators Hit A Wall Over Stablecoin Rules Based on reports, the bill has split committee leaders. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced part of the market-structure plan, while the Senate Banking Committee stopped its planned markup after intense pushback over language that would limit yields on stablecoins. That split helped prompt major industry players to pull back support, reshaping the path forward. A Push For Passage Before Spring Reports say some lawmakers want the measure ready for a presidential signature this spring. Supporters say speed matters; critics say rushing could lock in rules that harm legitimate services. US President Donald Trump’s approval is being discussed as a near-term finish line by some backers, and Republican and Democratic senators alike have been urged to find common ground. White House Tried To Broker A Deal Reports note that the White House convened meetings with bank and crypto executives in an effort to bridge gaps, but the discussions ended without an agreement. White House advisers, including Patrick Witt, have been central to those talks. The big sticking point remains whether stablecoin interest and reward programs should be restricted, and how strict any limits would be. Market Reaction And What It Means Based on market notes, Bitcoin and other digital assets have shown fresh volatility in recent days, and some traders welcomed talk of a clear US framework as a stabilizing signal while others feared the specifics could cut into revenues for exchanges and lenders. Coinbase’s public withdrawal of support altered the political math and sent a ripple through equities and crypto prices. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Who Wins And Who Loses In The Deal Reports say banks favor strict limits on stablecoin yields to avoid a flight of deposits into crypto platforms. Exchanges, in contrast, argue that rewards help users and that cutting them would reduce competition and innovation. Lawmakers will have to balance consumer protection, systemic risk, and commercial freedom. The final version could look very different from what’s now on the table. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Michael Saylor’s latest message is blunt and direct: “Go Bitcoin today — the money won’t fix itself.” He’s pressing an idea he has pushed for years — that holding Bitcoin is a deliberate choice against the slow decline of fiat money — and his firm’s actions back up the words. Bitcoin sits below Saylor’s firm’s average purchase price, yet buying has continued. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Strategy’s Massive Position According to reports, Strategy now holds 714,644 BTC. The average cost of that stash is listed at $76,056 per coin. Recent filings show another 1,142 BTC was bought this month at about $78,815 each, a purchase that amounted to roughly $90 million. At today’s trading levels near $68,000, the position shows an estimated unrealized loss of close to $6 billion, while the reported book value of holdings tops $54 billion after nearly six years of steady accumulation. Go bitcoin today. The money won’t fix itself. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 13, 2026 Public companies together are reported to hold about 1.13 million BTC, and Strategy makes up almost two-thirds of that total. Reports note that close to 200 public firms hold some Bitcoin, though most of the new buying in January was concentrated in a very small group. One company leads the herd by a large margin. High-Conviction Buying Saylor’s message isn’t just rhetoric. Reports have disclosed that Strategy follows a long-range plan that includes a seven-year road map disclosed in its Q4 2025 filings, which aims to raise Bitcoin per share by 2032 based on various yield scenarios. The firm’s playbook is simple: buy on dips and avoid selling. The mantra is repeated: buy Bitcoin and do not sell. That posture has consequences. Some see it as a show of commitment that can encourage other firms and big investors to act similarly. Others view the heavy concentration of corporate exposure as a source of market fragility — if Strategy were to change course unexpectedly, prices could shift fast. Liquidity matters. That risk is understated when the focus is only on conviction. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Market Impact And Criticism Reports say the firm’s buying has been so large that it dominated corporate additions in January, accounting for more than 90% of net new corporate Bitcoin purchases that month. That level of dominance brings scrutiny. Questions have been raised about governance, balance sheet risk, and what long-term holding means for shareholders who expect stable returns. Some critics argue that a company piling into a volatile asset creates a mismatch with traditional corporate responsibilities. At the same time, supporters argue that patient ownership of Bitcoin can protect against long-term currency erosion. This is the case Saylor makes: losses on paper are temporary if the thesis holds, and time is an ally for those convinced of Bitcoin’s store-of-value case. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Ethereum climbed back above $2,000 after a softer-than-expected US CPI print, and the move has traders and analysts debating whether the worst is behind the coin or if this is a temporary relief rally. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Reports say futures open interest has fallen sharply over the last 30 days, funding rates have swung into deeply negative territory, and some on-chain metrics point to a clustered support zone below current prices. Open Interest Drop Raises Questions According to CryptoQuant, the headline figure showing an 80 million ETH decline in open interest across major venues grabbed attention. That number, if taken at face value, would be huge. It suggests large positions were closed rather than new ones being put on. But the scale of the change also invites scrutiny; reporting errors or dollar-value comparisons mislabeled as ETH can happen. Still, a sizable pullback in futures exposure on exchanges including Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX has been logged, and that much appears real. Funding Rates And The Crowd Funding rates on some platforms are pushing to levels not seen in roughly three years. When traders pay to hold short positions, it signals strong bearish conviction. It is reported that such extremes tend to be followed by a sharp reversal as the crowd can become one-sided, and that leads to a quick reversal as the market sentiment changes. This was seen at the end of 2022, where there was extreme shorting followed by a quick reversal. This does not mean that it will happen this time around as markets can remain one-sided for longer than expected. Support Zones And Technical Targets Glassnode’s on-chain data reveals a significant cost-basis area between $1,880 and $1,900, where about 1.3 million ETH was traded. The $2,000 mark is acting as a psychological anchor and is reinforced by moving average clusters. A breakout from the recent falling wedge pattern points to an initial measured target near $2,150, a ceiling that would be tested before higher resistance near $2,260 and then $2,500. Those levels are not certainties; broader market tone and Bitcoin’s direction will influence whether they are reached. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Reduced open interest lowers the risk of cascade liquidations for now, which can tame intraday volatility. At the same time, low funding rates show that bearish bets are still active and could be squeezed if momentum turns. Reports say accumulation wallets increased inflows when prices dipped, hinting at longer-term conviction among some investors. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues. No Systemic Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends. In situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the crypto industry. Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level. Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem and FTX’s bankruptcy. It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers. The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to $3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock. Bitcoin rebounded quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained speculative energy from the market. Active addresses declined by 70%, and miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years to revisit its previous peak. Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses exceeding 80% have required three years or longer. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation. Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term resistance wall at $70,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A US Army veteran and XRP community influencer has drawn attention with a bold prediction: he believes XRP could overtake Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency within six years. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors His comments come amid a period of market turbulence that has seen Bitcoin’s value slide and XRP’s price fluctuate. Analysts warn the scenario is highly speculative, but it has sparked debate among traders and enthusiasts alike. Market Size Versus Market Story Reports note that Bitcoin still dominates. With a market cap near $1.37 trillion, it dwarfs XRP’s $86 billion. At current prices, XRP would need to climb to roughly $22.5 per token just to match Bitcoin’s market value. That represents a nearly 1,500% increase from today’s trading levels. The scale of the gap makes Patrick Riley’s forecast ambitious, especially considering Bitcoin’s long-standing role as the leading crypto asset. If Bitcoin doesn’t break $150,000 this year and reclaim it’s twelve year trend line, it’s going to re-test $1,000. Either way it goes, $XRP will take the #1 spot within the next 6 years after which Bitcoin will be relegated to a nostalgia collectible for those with an interest in… pic.twitter.com/TxOnCdCqHB — Patrick L Riley (@Acquired_Savant) February 10, 2026 Riley bases part of his prediction on long-term trendlines. According to him, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below significant trendlines drawn over the past decade. Whether Bitcoin recovers above these levels or continues its decline, Riley believes XRP could rise to take the top spot. He sets a timeline of six years for this shift, putting the potential event around 2032. Technical Lines And Tale-Telling Reports have disclosed that trendlines can influence trader behavior but do not guarantee outcomes. A chart stretching back over a decade may appear decisive, yet actual price movements are shaped by many factors: market confidence, institutional activity, regulation, and capital flows. Riley has previously made headlines for suggesting high-profile figures are tied to Bitcoin’s creation and framing market swings as deliberate attempts to suppress XRP. Such claims energize communities but are not proof of likely outcomes. Currently, Bitcoin trades roughly 16 times larger than XRP by market capitalization. Even after recent market drops, it maintains deep liquidity and a strong network effect. XRP would need a combination of wider adoption, investor confidence, and market momentum to close that gap. According to reports, this would require events that fundamentally shift how capital is allocated in the crypto space. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In What Would Have To Happen Reports say XRP overtaking Bitcoin remains a speculative scenario. Bitcoin would need to experience a sharp decline, or XRP would need extraordinary growth — possibly both — for the top spot to change hands. Market watchers suggest keeping an eye on adoption trends, partnerships, and price action over the coming years. For now, Bitcoin’s position remains secure, while XRP’s potential rally continues to excite its community. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Companies linked to President Donald Trump are expanding their presence in the cryptocurrency industry, with the Trump Media & Technology Group taking another formal step into digital asset markets. Truth Social Funds, an affiliate of Trump Media, has submitted a registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking approval to launch two new cryptocurrency exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). Trump Media Latest Crypto Proposal The filings outline plans for Crypto.com’s native token, Cronos (CRO), the Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF, and the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound The Cronos-focused product is designed to provide exposure to CRO, the native token of the Cronos blockchain, while also capturing staking rewards associated with holding the asset. The second fund would track the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market value, and incorporate Ether staking yields into its strategy. Under the proposed structure, Crypto.com would play a central operational role. The digital asset platform is set to provide custody, liquidity, and staking services for the funds. Meanwhile, Yorkville America Equities has been named as the investment adviser, with the filings indicating a 0.95% annual management fee. Bitcoin Struggles Below $70,000 Friday’s announcement builds on a broader strategic partnership formed last year between Trump Media and Crypto.com. As part of that agreement, Trump Media was set to acquire 684.4 million Cronos (CRO) tokens at an approximate price of $0.153 per token. The transaction was structured as a 50% stock and 50% cash exchange and included the creation of a Trump Media Group CRO Strategy aimed at integrating Cronos into the company’s broader digital asset plans. Related Reading: Cardano Founder Hoskinson Warns Of 90-180 Days Of Pain Ahead: Here’s Why The expansion into crypto-linked investment products comes at a time when Bitcoin continues to face technical resistance. Although the leading cryptocurrency has posted gains of roughly 5% over the past 24 hours, it remains unable to decisively break above the $70,000 level. Shares of Trump Media (DJT) also moved modestly higher during Friday’s trading session, rising about 2.5% to trade near $11.18. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The recent slide of Bitcoin has punched a hole in short-term holders’ wallets and left loud questions about where prices might settle next. Markets are jittery; people who bought high are taking losses. Some sellers reacted fast, and that rush shows up in on-chain numbers. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In Realized Losses Hit Historical Levels According to CryptoQuant and an analyst writing under the name IT Tech, Bitcoin’s seven-day average of realized net losses climbed to about $2.3 billion — a figure that puts this sell-off among the largest loss events on record. “This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction,” IT Tech said. This spike in losses means many traders sold at a loss over the span of a week, not just a day. Price Action And Market Context Reports say Bitcoin fell sharply from its recent peak and has been bouncing between support lines that traders watch closely. After topping near $126,000, the token traded as low as about $60,000 earlier in the month and has been seen around $66,600 on recent checks. That gap is large, and it explains why panic selling pushed realized losses so high. Signs Pointing To Capitulation Reports note that on-chain indicators tied to profit and loss show losses are rising faster than gains. One contributor at CryptoQuant, GugaOnChain, flagged a Z-Score reading that he describes as consistent with deep capitulation — a phase where more holders give up than buy. When that happens, markets often become chaotic first and steady later. What Analysts Are Saying Now Reports say some market commentators expect pressure to continue for a while. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst, described the market as being in “full capitulation mode,” and warned selling could persist for months before clearer footing appears. Others point out that heavy losses can also clear the way for patient buyers later. Where Bottoms Have Lived Before Reports have disclosed that CryptoQuant’s measure of the “realized price” sits near $55,000 — a level that has been linked in past cycles to the end of big sell-offs and the start of sideways consolidation. That does not mean a floor has formed this time; it only marks a region where past buyers, on average, stopped losing money on their holdings. Markets have traded well below similar marks before they steadied, so history offers patterns, not guarantees. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K What This Means For Traders And Investors Short term, expect wild swings. Some days will bring sharp rallies that reverse quickly. Other days will drag, and realized losses may keep rising as more investors pull out. Longer term, if institutional demand returns or big holders stop forcing sales, price stability could follow. Right now the market is clearing out positions and testing whether support levels hold. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
A finance expert believes XRP may be approaching a notable moment amid ongoing market and regulatory developments. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K Finance guru Coach JV points to regulatory delays, policy uncertainty, and behind-the-scenes activity as factors that could shape the token’s next moves. While the situation is far from certain, his perspective highlights why investors are watching XRP closely despite broader market swings. Regulatory Delays Could Signal Change According to Coach JV, the long-running Ripple vs. SEC saga and slow progress on bills like the Clarity Act and the GENIUS Act have left a lot of questions in play. Some of those gaps are legal. Some are practical. When rules are fuzzy, large funds hesitate to move. When rules are clearer, capital tends to follow. That is simple, yet it’s not automatic. Many factors decide where big investors put money: liquidity, custody solutions, legal safety, and return potential. Reports say the Clarity Act aims to define how digital assets should be treated beyond stablecoins. That could matter a lot for tokens with institutional use cases. Market Psychology And Misinformation Reports note Coach JV also warned about noise. Social posts, clips, and AI-made headlines can push short-term moves that don’t reflect fundamentals. He urged calm and a plan. That was practical advice: set buy rules, remove emotion, stick to them. A crypto analyst added a different tone. He said he’s watching for curveballs — a one-line way to say unexpected policy shifts or regulatory surprises might appear. Those surprises could involve stablecoins or new banking rules. A crackdown on certain stablecoins would change flows in the market. It would not automatically hand the keys to XRP, but it would reshape choices for payments and custody. Accumulation And The Case For Patience Coach JV explained his own approach: disciplined accumulation across select assets during dips. He mentioned continuing to buy Bitcoin and XRP on weakness. That method is time-tested for many investors. It works when an investor has a long horizon and can tolerate swings. Reports say accumulation is a defensive way to act when headlines flash and sentiment whipsaws. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Institutional Flows And Real-World Use According to market watchers, true separation from broader crypto moves will need more than clearer laws. Real demand must appear. That means banks or payment firms using blockchain rails, meaningful custody offerings, and on-ramps that work at scale. If institutions begin to run settlement tests and then roll out services, token activity could change for good. But right now most large allocators are still waiting on clearer rules and proven infrastructure. Some moves may be passive in the system; others will be driven by active adoption. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market. Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions. He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions. According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating. Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Binance is pushing back against claims that it played a central role in the massive liquidation wave that swept through crypto markets on October 10, an event widely described as the largest in the industry’s history. In the aftermath of roughly $19 billion in wiped‑out positions, some market participants accused the exchange of manipulating prices for its own gain. Binance co‑CEO Richard Teng has now addressed those allegations directly, insisting the platform was not “the sole trigger” of the turmoil and that the selloff hit the entire digital asset ecosystem. Binance Co-CEO Breaks Down $19B Liquidation Event Speaking about the incident, Teng said the sharp downturn was not isolated to Binance. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges experienced comparable spikes in liquidations at the same time, he noted. According to him, intense selling pressure emerged across trading venues as volatility surged. Teng attributed the market shock to external forces rather than internal exchange activity. He pointed to a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, including new US tariffs on China and broader uncertainty in global financial markets. These factors, combined with highly leveraged positions across crypto derivatives markets, created what he described as a “classic leverage flush.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup Teng drew comparisons to traditional markets, noting that US equities lost $1.5 trillion in value on the same day, with about $150 billion in liquidations occurring in equities alone. By contrast, the crypto market—significantly smaller in size—saw $19 billion in forced position closures, spread across all major exchanges. While acknowledging that many users suffered losses, Teng said Binance took steps to support affected customers, adding that other exchanges did not implement similar measures. He also stressed that there were no signs of abnormal mass withdrawals from Binance during the episode. According to the company, there were no indications of internal technical failures or systemic weaknesses. The price action, Teng argued, was driven by exogenous market forces rather than any exchange‑specific issue. SAFU Fund Hits $1 Billion In BTC Despite the volatility, Teng struck a cautiously optimistic tone about the broader trajectory of digital assets. He said institutional investors continue to allocate capital to the sector, describing their participation as evidence that “smart investors are putting money to work.” While retail demand has softened compared to last year, he said investment from institutions and corporations remains resilient. In his view, the long‑term development of the industry should be judged by its fundamentals rather than short‑term price swings. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Alongside its comments on the liquidation event, the exchange announced it has completed a previously outlined $1 billion Bitcoin purchase plan for its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU). The exchange acquired 4,545 BTC worth approximately $304.58 million, bringing the reserve wallet’s total holdings to 15,000 BTC, currently valued at about $1.005 billion. Binance also stated that if the fund’s value falls below $800 million due to market declines or legal expenses, it will automatically replenish the balance back to $1 billion. At the time of writing, the exchange’s native token, BNB, is trading at $605. It has registered losses of 5% and 29% over the last seven and fourteen days, respectively. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders squinting at charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have tumbled sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback inside a longer uptrend. Others warn the data points to something colder. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K Price Decline And Hard Numbers According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of losses. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 — a reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that net realized losses recently hit over $13 billion, a level that matched the worst stretches of the 2022 slump. In 2024, roughly $10 billion of inflows helped lift market cap. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value shrank. That odd mix of heavy inflows and falling market cap suggests selling pressure is higher than fresh buying. How Rising Prices Are Masking a Quiet Shift in Bitcoin’s Structure “The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition.” – By @xwinfinance Read more ⤵️https://t.co/7soxNoBhqi pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026 Capital Flows Versus Price Action Based on reports, the capital flow numbers are the most awkward fact for bulls. Money moved in, but value fell. Who was selling into that demand? Large holders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks might have taken profits or hedged positions. The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal shrinking realized gains even as prices remained far above prior bear-era levels. That tends to weaken the internal strength of the market over time. Sentiment And Historical Echoes Some traders point to a quirk of memory: high nominal prices make pain feel milder. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access have changed the market’s plumbing, and that gives many confidence. Yet sentiment readings at extreme fear often show up near capitulation points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022 realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means big losses can precede a final low by a long stretch. Technical Patterns And The Bigger Picture Bitcoin posted four consecutive losing months and a 41% decline across that stretch — a streak last seen during 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern matters because similar sequences have led to extended downturns in the past. Related Reading: More Bitcoin Ahead: Saylor, Strategy Commit To Regular BTC Purchases Bitcoin At A Crossroads As XWIN Flags Early Signs Of Crypto Winter For XWIN Research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking. Right now, that balance looks strained. Until inflows begin translating into sustained market cap growth and realized losses cool meaningfully, the firm believes the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not have fully arrived, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, is betting on a prompt bounce for Ethereum. He pointed to a pattern stretching back to 2018: each time ETH dropped deep, it later recovered strongly. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K That history has shaped the tone of his remarks in Hong Kong, where he argued that previous collapses ended with rapid turnarounds. Tom Lee Backs A Quick Rebound According to Lee, Ethereum has endured more than a 50% decline on eight separate occasions since 2018 and each time it came back. He used those past moves as the basis for his view that another sharp recovery is likely. Analysts often disagree about how much weight to give past cycles. $ETH 100% V-Shape Record ???? Tom Lee highlights Ethereum’s eight V-shaped recoveries since 2018. Tom DeMark, whose models are followed by macro legends like Paul Tudor Jones and used across institutional desks, says a final undercut near $1,890 would “perfect” the bottom. That… pic.twitter.com/j9zWoUOLgP — SamAlτcoin.eth (@SAMALTCOIN_ETH) February 11, 2026 Market conditions are not identical now, yet patterns matter because traders use them. Some analysts have highlighted the $1,890 level as a likely low. They said it might be probed twice in an “undercut” before stabilizing. That kind of setup is common in volatile markets and is used to find entry points. Staking Squeezes Liquid Supply Reports note that staking demand remains strong even while prices fall. The validator entry queue has swollen to about 21 days, with roughly 4 million ETH waiting to be accepted. That has left more than 30% of the total supply locked up — about 36.7 million ETH. People are earning roughly 2.80% APR on staked coins, a modest return by crypto standards, but enough to persuade many holders to lock funds away. When large sums are immobilized like this, tradable supply thins and price reactions can be amplified on both the way down and the way up. Related Reading: More Bitcoin Ahead: Saylor, Strategy Commit To Regular BTC Purchases Ethereum Price Action And Market Strain Market moves have been sharp. ETH slid to about $1,900 at the time of writing, down 5.4% in the last seven days, and has failed to hold above $2,000 in recent days. Over the last 30 days, the token fell roughly 36%. Heavy liquidations have been recorded, with more than $1 billion in positions closed out as leverage was forced to unwind. That generated fast selling and left traders cautious. Economic data, geopolitical headlines, and anticipation of US inflation readings have added to the nervous mood. Some desks now treat any bounce as tentative until volatility eases. Whether that rebound comes fast or takes time, Lee’s stance is clear: sharp drops have not marked the end for Ethereum in the past. He sees the current stress as another chapter in a familiar cycle, not a structural break. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe. In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends. However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.” This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation. He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking. By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency. In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory. Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations. Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold. He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor has doubled down on his company’s plan to keep buying Bitcoin on a regular schedule, saying that short-term swings will not change the approach. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K The message was simple and repeated: accumulation continues. Many in markets heard it as both reassurance and a reminder of how much the firm now depends on the asset. Saylor’s Quarterly Buying Plan According to public statements and company filings, the firm will keep making purchases every quarter. Reports say Bitcoin is being treated like a long-term reserve rather than a trading position. That means buys continue no matter what headlines scream today. The tactic is deliberate and steady. It is designed to smooth the entry points over time. A Massive Position And What It Means The company holds 714,644 Bitcoins. On its own pages the value runs into the tens of billions. That level of accumulation places the firm among the largest single holders of the coin, and with such scale comes concentration risk. The position was not built overnight. It was assembled over years, and much of it was funded through debt instruments tied to the company’s strategy of growth through accumulation. Bitcoin Price Action In Context Bitcoin has been volatile. It slid back below $70,000 this week after a run higher earlier in the year, and at one stage recently it had traded near a much higher peak that recalibrated many investors’ expectations. Short-term traders are uneasy. Long-term backers are unbothered. Price swings of this size can push shares of companies with large crypto exposure down sharply, which is what happened to the firm’s stock as market sentiment shifted. How Debt And Liquidity Factor In Reports say Strategy carries more than $8 billion in total debt, including notes created specifically to fund purchases. Cash on hand is being used to cover ordinary obligations, with the company noting it has enough to pay dividends for a period measured in years. Bitcoin Correlation With Tech Stocks Meanwhile, many market players now treat Bitcoin like a high-beta asset that moves with tech stocks in risk-on episodes, rather than like a safe haven that shines when fear rises. That shift in behavior is one reason some analysts have raised questions about the sustainability of a debt-financed accumulation model when prices move sharply lower. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Saylor’s Pledge And What Comes Next The commitment by Saylor and his team to buy each quarter is intact. The company says selling is not on the table. For outside observers, the question is whether steady accumulation funded in part by debt becomes a strength if prices recover, or a vulnerability if volatility persists and credit conditions tighten. The answer will emerge as market conditions unfold. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
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Markets have put more gold on blockchains, And the shift has been rapid. Reports say the tokenized commodities sector grew about 53% in under six weeks, pushing its size to just over $6 billion. That jump has been led by a small group of gold tokens, and the move has traders and some big banks watching closely. Related Reading: Cardano May Be At A Prime Buying Point, Analyst Says Gold Tokens Drive The Rally According to on-chain data, most of the fresh value is sitting in Tether’s XAU₮ and Paxos’s PAXG. Together they hold close to $6 billion of the sector’s market worth. Investors are treating these tokens as a quick way to own a claim on bullion without needing to move bars or deal with vault paperwork. Some buyers want a safe haven that moves easily across borders. Others want to trade fractions of an ounce in online markets. Tether Moves Toward Physical Integration Reports say Tether has not stopped at issuing a token. The firm took a $150 million stake in Gold.com with plans to fold XAU₮ into that platform and to let customers pay for actual gold with stablecoins. This is a step toward tying token balances more directly to physical holdings and sales channels. If it works, retail buyers could use familiar crypto tools to buy and collect real metal, which would change how ordinary people access bullion. Analysts See Big Upside Based on reports, Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered has sketched a huge growth path: from roughly $35 billion in tokenized real-world assets today to as much as $2 trillion by 2028. Alvin Foo, a crypto analyst, has argued that tokenized commodities — gold on public chains in particular — could scale to trillion-dollar values someday, as markets adopt fractional ownership and new trading rails. Those projections require many pieces to fall into place: clear rules, reliable custody proofs, and wide demand from non-crypto investors. Ambitious goals are being set, but they rest on a chain of technical and legal fixes that are still in progress. How The System Works And Why It Matters Stablecoin liquidity and decentralized finance plumbing are being pointed to as the plumbing that can support larger markets. Reports note that having quick settlement, low minimums, and easy custody opens bullion to smaller investors and traders who were locked out before. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Fractional ownership is already possible, which means someone can own a slice of a bar without ever visiting a vault. Yet trust must be earned. Custodial audits, insured storage, and transparent minting and redemption rules will shape whether token holders feel secure. Featured image from Private Banker International, chart from TradingView