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Bitcoin’s market cycles have often followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes those repeating structures may already be pointing toward the next major bottom. This is the foundational principle behind why Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: trade an asset long enough, and it begins to show a pattern memory. Right now, that memory is speaking. And it’s pointing to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000. Pattern Memory And Bitcoin’s Retracement History A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s retracement behavior could determine where the current cycle eventually stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with long trading histories tend to repeat certain behavioral patterns across cycles.  Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Pattern memory shows that Bitcoin’s previous market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous peak. These levels have always acted as areas where the Bitcoin price finally found a durable bottom before beginning a new bull phase. During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin ultimately formed its bottom near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, once again reaching the 0.86 retracement low before a new accumulation phase began. However, the 2021 market cycle bottom occurred slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where Is The Next Real Bottom? If October 2025 was the true cycle high for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M timeframe suggests, then history gives us a roadmap for where price is likely headed before the next major bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle produces a range where Bitcoin may eventually bottom if history repeats. Mapping the current cycle’s Fibonacci retracement from the cycle low to the October 2025 high reveals three critical zones. The 0.618 sits at approximately $57,000-$58,000, which also aligns closely with the Weekly 200 Moving Average. However, this level alone may not represent the final low, based on how previous cycles behaved. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Instead, deeper retracement levels appear more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacements come into play. The 0.786 retracement level sits near $39,000 and coincides with the monthly 100-moving average. Beneath that, the 0.86 retracement level falls around $31,000. Both levels have previously defined major cycle bottoms; therefore, Bitcoin’s next long-term low could be somewhere within the $39,000 to $31,000 range if the October 2025 peak proves to be the true cycle high. Some market commentators have floated lower downside targets, including projections that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 region. However, the pattern-memory analysis shows that such a drop would represent a complete breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Seventeen of the top 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders added to their positions while ordinary investors were selling. That split tells a story that goes beyond a single month of on-chain data. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% Smart Money Moves Against The Crowd Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $1.5 billion over five trading sessions, capping the stretch with a single-day inflow of $458 million — one of the strongest readings this quarter. Retail is leaving crypto at the fastest pace since October. During the same time, 17 of the top 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders added more to their positions. Institutions now control roughly 12% of the total supply. This divergence shows they are here for a different reason… pic.twitter.com/ZiUFoG2WQZ — Zac Townsend (@ztownsend) March 3, 2026 That buying came as Bitcoin traded in the mid-$60,000 range, well off the October peak of $126,200 that triggered a broad retail exit. Data from analyst Zac Townsend shows retail traders have been dumping BTC at a fast clip since that high. Yet the biggest institutional players went the other direction, quietly stacking more. The gap between those two groups is stark. It reflects a split in confidence that analysts say often appears before major price moves — though the direction of any move is never guaranteed. ???? Over the past month, Long Term Holders added 212,000 BTC. pic.twitter.com/lr9Zfe4TtI — Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) March 3, 2026 Long-Term Holders Accumulate $14B Worth Of Bitcoin On-chain data tracked by CryptoQuant tells a similar story from a different angle. Bitcoin’s long-term holders — wallets that have sat on their coins for at least 150 days — added 212,000 BTC over the past 30 days. At current prices, that haul is worth more than $14 billion. CryptoQuant verified author J.A. Maartunn flagged the trend in a post Tuesday, pointing to the platform’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric. The tool measures whether this class of holders is buying or selling over any given 30-day window. A reading above zero signals accumulation. Below zero means they’re distributing. For most of 2025, that metric sat in negative territory. Long-term holders were selling — heavily. Reports indicate the shift began as Bitcoin retested multi-year price lows and selling pressure started to ease. That’s when buyers in this category came back in force. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away What Comes Next Bitcoin dipped to around $60,000 on February 6, extending a roughly 15% pullback that shook out weaker hands and rattled short-term traders. The drop appears to have worked as a magnet for buyers with longer time horizons. Accumulation by large holders has historically been read as a bullish signal. When sustained buying from this group builds up, it tends to tighten available supply, which can set the stage for upward price pressure. Whether that dynamic plays out here depends on broader market conditions — macro sentiment, regulatory developments, and demand from new buyers all factor in. Featured image from Bitpanda, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s current price trajectory has left a lot to be desired, with the most concern currently being for when the digital asset will hit a bottom. There have been countless predictions since the decline began, and yet, Bitcoin remains below $70,000. Nevertheless, it has not stopped the barrage of bottom calls and price predictions. One of these was shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who took to using historical data and performance to track how low the BTC price will probably drop before reversing upward. Bitcoin Price Could Still Crash To $50,000 In the analysis , Crypto Patel pointed to previous bear markets and how far the Bitcoin price had crashed each time before recovering. The first of these was the 2018 bear market, when the Bitcoin price had crashed 85% after hitting an all-time high of $19,000. Once the crash was over and the bottom was established, though, the Bitcoin price would go on to record a 350% rally. Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Next on the list was the 2019 crash that had triggered a 70% Bitcoin crash. This was a continuation of the bear market trend that had begun back in 2018, as profit-taking was the order of the day. However, just like before, this bleed would eventually end, and what followed was a 1,500% rally that would see the Bitcoin price reach new all-time highs. It eventually peaked at $69,000 in 2021 before crashing again. Following the 2021 bull market, the year 2022 would kickstart the next bear run for the digital asset. With the collapse of crypto giants such as Celsius and the FTX crypto exchange, the Bitcoin price witnessed a 78% crash. But once again, after hitting a bottom and accumulation ramped up, the BTC price would eventually rise 750% to cross $100,000 in the next few years, and eventually hit its most recent all-time high of $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Using this trend, the crypto analyst outlines that it is possible that the Bitcoin price will drop further to $50,000, to complete a 50% price drop. However, despite the bearish prediction, Crypto Patel predicts that the BTC price is eventually headed for $220,000, which would be an over 300% increase from $50,000. Fully taking the historical performance into account, though, it shows that with each bear trend, the Bitcoin price has fallen an average of 70% each time. Using this, it is likely that the digital asset’s price will crash below $40,000, eventually finding support around $37,000, if history were to repeat itself. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,500 but failed at $70,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $68,000 support. The price is trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,000 and $66,550 levels. Bitcoin Price Corrects Lower From $70,000 Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,400 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,100, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below $68,000, and the price tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,400, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $69,550 level. A close above the $69,550 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,850 and $71,200. Downside Break In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,400 level. The first major support is near the $66,550 level. The next support is now near the $65,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,700 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,400, followed by $66,550. Major Resistance Levels – $68,800 and $70,000.

War is burning across the Middle East. Oil prices are climbing. Stock markets in Asia have taken a hit. And yet, Bitcoin is still standing above $66,000 — a fact that has caught the attention of analysts keeping a close eye on the market. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Calm Where There Should Be Panic The group most closely watched during moments of market stress is what analysts call short-term holders — people who bought Bitcoin recently and are most likely to sell fast when things go wrong. Based on reports from on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, that group has stayed unusually quiet. When Bitcoin slipped into the $63,000 to $64,000 range on Feb. 28, exchange inflows from recent buyers barely moved. No major wave of selling followed. No spike in coins being rushed to exchanges at a loss. That was not the case earlier in February. Reports say that on Feb. 5-6, short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24-hour window. It was a clear panic event. Since then, those kinds of loss-driven transfers have been falling steadily — and the Iran escalation did not reverse that trend. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who tracked the data, says this matters because markets tend to find their footing once the most nervous sellers have already exited. If exchange inflows from short-term holders remain low, it could point to seller exhaustion and set the stage for a price recovery. A sudden jump in those inflows, however, would suggest the selling is not done. What History Says About War And Bitcoin This is not the first time Bitcoin has been tested by armed conflict. According to market analyst Ted Pillows, the pattern has played out twice before. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin dropped — then surged 40%. When Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin dipped again before gaining 25%. Feb 2022: Russia attacked Ukraine. ▫️ $BTC dumped first and then rallied 40%. June 2025: Israel attacked Iran. ▫️ Bitcoin dumped first and then rallied 25%. Feb 2026: US attacked Iran. Will a similar pattern follow again? pic.twitter.com/b8FLF4aR9p — Ted (@TedPillows) February 28, 2026 Now, following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin has once again pulled back. Pillows is now asking whether that same rebound pattern could follow a third time. The current conflict is far larger than those earlier flashpoints. Reports say US-Israeli forces struck more than 2,000 targets across 131 Iranian cities and provinces, hitting nuclear sites, missile systems, and senior military figures, including Iran’s Supreme Leader. Related Reading: Wall Street Giant JPMorgan Sees Clarity Act Driving Second-Half Upside Bitcoin Price Action Iran fired back with missiles and drones aimed at Israel, US bases, and multiple Gulf states. The war has dragged in Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Cyprus, and a UK military base. Bitcoin has dropped 3.5% since Feb. 26, bringing its price to $65,540. It briefly touched $63,030 on Feb. 28 before climbing back above $65,000. Given the scale of what is happening on the ground, that kind of price movement is relatively contained. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market appears to be entering a decisive holding phase, with on-chain data signaling a steady contraction in active supply.  Rather than aggressive selling or speculative rotation, a growing portion of circulating BTC is moving into long-term storage, reducing the amount readily available for trading. This tightening liquidity dynamic reflects rising investor conviction, as holders choose accumulation over distribution. How Volatility Compression Tightens Bitcoin’s Range In a recent post on X, Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, noted that the Bitcoin 30-Day active supply has dropped sharply in recent weeks, which is a clear signal that fewer BTC have moved across the network over the past month. Due to this BTC drop, active participation has decreased, and the market has become quieter, with fewer units changing hands in the short to medium term. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Turbulent Ride: How BTC’s Price Has Fared With Escalating Mid-East Conflicts Wedson explains that when this 30-day active supply indicator spikes higher, it typically reflects that short-term holders and retail investors are experiencing strong emotions. The high peaks in the 30-day active supply often coincide with strong retail moments driven by euphoria or panic. This is when more coins return to circulation, whether driven by FOMO during rallies or capitulation during sharp corrections. Thus, when the indicator declines downward, it generally signals the volatility compression, low supply rotation, and market participants appear more patient. In simple terms, the high 30-day active supply would show emotion, rotation, and active retail engagement.  Meanwhile, the low 30-day active supply would show apathy, holding behavior, and tighter market structural conditions. This 30-day active supply is an excellent metric for capturing the market’s monthly behavioral pulse. BTC Enters A Decision Level With Statistical Significance The Bitcoin price action is approaching its next pivot on the 3rd, a level that has historically produced meaningful reactions. According to a crypto trader known as LP on X, reviewing the last eight pivot occurrences, five have resulted in local lows. Statistically, that move gives the current Low-Time Frame (LTF) pivot a slight tendency to form a bottom, but the context matters. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Explodes Higher, $70K Level Faces Fresh Bullish Assault However, if the price sells off into a pivot, the probability of it acting as the local low increases. Then, if the price rallies into the pivot, the odds would shift toward marking a local high. Over the past several days, the price has been volatile but generally has been grinding higher into the upcoming pivot, slightly increasing the risk of a level that could form a high. Historically, reactions from this pivot have led to moves in the 7% and 9% range, suggesting that whichever direction is confirmed could result in a meaningful expansion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Iran war jitters attack once more, knocking investors out of risk assets and dragging the broader crypto market into the red. Bitcoin’s slide has kicked back in after a short-lived push above 70,000 dollars with BTC slipping about 2.3% into the high‑60,000s dollars. Bitcoin: A Snapshot Of The Uncertainty In Numbers For weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to hold above $70,000: on Monday it briefly pushed above 70,000 dollars, only to reverse and drop as much as 2.3% to 67,834 dollars in early European trading, before stabilizing around 68,100 dollars by 8:10 a.m. in London. This comes after a rejection near the $90k–$100k region in late 2025, lining up with US and Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and fears around a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered classic risk‑off flows across crypto and other assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Line Of Fire: Price Dips To $63k As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran A Broader Sentiment However concerning this may be for an asset known as the “digital gold”, this is not just a BTC issue. Ethereum, Solana and the rest of the large‑cap complex traded lower alongside it, confirming this as a broad risk‑off move. This seems to indicate that the risk of a prolonged war involving Iran is weighing on global risk appetite, and crypto appears to be trading firmly as a high‑beta risk asset. Investors continue to rotate into classic havens such as gold while selling crypto. This reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is still closely tied to broader risk sentiment during geopolitical unrest and not necessarily benefitting from it. Related Reading: How The Israel-Iran War Could Shake Crypto Prices, Explains Arthur Hayes It should be noted that, as Bloomberg reports, the Iran situation also feeds into fears of higher oil prices and stickier inflation. This could keep interest rates elevated for longer and further pressure speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. What Traders Are Watching For Traders appear to be trading headline to headline for now. For short‑term holders who bought into strength above 70,000 dollars, every hawkish Fed comment or fresh Iran escalation keeps their entries underwater and raises the odds they’ll be forced to cut at a loss, especially if Bitcoin makes a clean move toward the 60,000 dollar “line in the sand.” For long‑term holders, however, sitting on older, deeply profitable coins, the same headlines are more an exercise in patience than survival. A deeper sweep into the low‑60,000s would hurt mark‑to‑market, but it is still well inside a multi‑year profit zone and historically has been where these players either sit tight or quietly add. Once again, the numbers prove that the market is just as fragile as human’s fears. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

A technical analyst known as ‘V’ has shared a striking Elliott Wave Theory-based Bitcoin price outlook on X that he believes most market participants are completely overlooking. The chart, plotted on Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe, outlines a multi-year roadmap that could first subject the cryptocurrency to significant downside pressure, potentially triggering a price crash to $40,000 before setting the stage for an explosive rally that could shock investors and traders.   Elliott Wave Pattern Points to $40,000 Bitcoin Price Dip V’s analysis on X begins by identifying a completed five-wave structure that carried Bitcoin from its 2022 lows to an early 2025 peak around $109,354. Those waves, clearly labeled 1 through 5 on the chart, mark the end of Bitcoin’s first major impulse move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time From here, V projects that Bitcoin could now enter a Wave 2 correction, which could take the form of a classic ABC zigzag pattern. In this projected scenario, Wave A is forecasted to bottom somewhere between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, triggering a Bitcoin price decline to the $51,000 to $62,000 range.  Following this, Wave B is expected to see a small relief bounce, pushing Bitcoin back up toward the 100% to 132% extension zone between $109,354 to $120,594 on the chart. Once this bounce occurs, V predicts a final downside target in Wave C. He forecasts that the Bitcoin price could decline to the $51,336 to $35,564 range, representing a massive 55% to 69% decrease from the previous bounce area.  Notably, V has stated that Bitcoin’s projected move to its final bearish target could catch the majority of investors and traders completely off guard. This is because a relief rally back towards six figures in Wave B would likely restore investor confidence and draw buyers back in, only for the market to decline all over again to an even steeper target. In other words, it could be a bull trap. The Bitcoin End Game That Could Shock Investors Following the anticipated completion of the Wave 2 correction, V predicts the onset of Wave 3, a phase that could trigger a powerful bullish reversal for Bitcoin. The chart illustrates a projected rally, highlighted by a rising arrow. Bitcoin is expected to retest and reclaim its previous resistance level around $109,354, marking a potential gain of more than 207% from its projected Wave C bottom around $35,564.  Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Once BTC crosses this resistance with strong momentum, the chart projects a stronger upward push toward a shocking $150,000 target. Notably, the last time Bitcoin was remotely close to this level was in October 2025, when its price skyrocketed to new all-time highs above $126,000. If the V’s Elliott Wave forecast plays out as expected, it would mark a new historic ATH for BTC. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is tightening its range at a critical support zone, with price action compressing after weeks of sideways movement. As volatility contracts and momentum build beneath key resistance, the market appears to be preparing for a decisive breakout. With major support holding for now, the stage is set for a significant move.  Consolidation Zone Signals Strategic Accumulation Crypto analyst Donald Dean highlights that Bitcoin is currently in a prime position for consolidation and accumulation. Currently, price action continues to respect a crucial support trendline, with steady buying activity occurring near the $69,000 mark. This persistent behavior suggests the market is building a solid floor, allowing investors to accumulate positions before the next significant move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows From a technical perspective, this $69,000 zone represents a formidable area of support and a retest of the major breakout in 2024. Dean views this phase as a healthy development for the long-term trajectory of the asset. Once the multi-year support is confirmed, Bitcoin would essentially create a launchpad that will serve as the base for a sustained move toward higher valuations. Looking at the weekly chart, Dean identifies specific upside targets based on volume and Fibonacci extensions. The first objective is the $90,000 volume shelf, which acts as a magnet for price. Beyond that, the Golden Ratio (1.618 extension) suggests a target of $102,000. Once these levels are cleared, the next major challenge involves a move to $122,000, which would represent a 2x increase from the previous low-to-high cycle. However, the long-term outlook remains even more ambitious if the bullish momentum persists. Furthermore, Dean notes that the subsequent Golden Ratio at the 2.618 extension places the target at approximately $155,000. While these figures represent significant milestones, the current focus remains on the successful defense of the $69,000 level to validate the structural integrity of the ongoing bull market. Weeks Of Sideways Movement, No Clear Bitcoin Breakout In a recent update, Crypto Candy emphasized that Bitcoin remains stuck in an extended consolidation phase, trading within the $60,000 to $70,000 range for weeks. Despite multiple attempts to break out, the price continues to rotate within this zone, signaling ongoing indecision between buyers and sellers. Related Reading: No Rebound For Bitcoin Yet — Short-Term BTC Holders Continue Holding At A Loss After briefly dipping toward the $62,000 area, BTC once again rebounded toward $70,000. However, this rebound does not alter the broader range structure. Without a decisive breakout, these moves are viewed as internal rotations rather than the start of a sustained trend.  For now, Crypto Candy maintains a bearish bias unless Bitcoin can convincingly flip the $71,000–$72,000 resistance zone into support. As long as the price stays below that threshold, the expectation remains for another leg down toward $61,000 or potentially lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has returned to an extreme technical zone that has historically marked major cycle bottoms for the BTC price. According to crypto analyst @DurdenBTC, the Harmonic Oscillator has now printed its lowest possible reading, a level that previously preceded outsized one-year gains. The signal raises a direct question: Does history imply that Bitcoin is positioned to double from here? Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator Signals BTC Price Could More Than Double A chart shared by the analyst highlights a striking signal for Bitcoin, showing the Harmonic Oscillator at -100, the lowest point on its long-term decaying price range, which spans from -100 to +100. This “Capitulation” zone marks periods when BTC trades far below its harmonic center and historical equilibrium, signaling extreme market pessimism. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Historically, every time the oscillator has hit this level—late 2011, early 2015, late 2018, March 2020, and late 2022—Bitcoin reached major cycle lows before entering strong upward trends. The chart quantifies this pattern, showing a median one-year return of +135% from the capitulation zone, with a 100% success rate across all recorded signals. For traders, this suggests that the BTC price could more than double over the next year if history repeats itself. The chart also contrasts other zones in the oscillator, illustrating the model’s cyclical reliability: the “Undervalued” zone historically produced +77% median returns, “Equilibrium” and “Overheated” zones delivered smaller gains, and the “Euphoria” band at the top often led to negative returns. In essence, the chart emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current capitulation reading may mark a rare opportunity for a major rally. By connecting extreme market lows with historically consistent gains, the oscillator provides traders a clear framework for anticipating BTC’s next potential cycle. Bearish Trend Model Meets A Generational Buy Signal Although the oscillator has a strong historical record, @DurdenBTC notes that his broader trend system currently leans bearish. This creates a tension between momentum-based trend signals and the oscillator, which indicates extreme undervaluation. The oscillator works on a damped harmonic model, where price moves around a rising long-term center line while volatility gradually compresses. Related Reading: XRP Daily Liquidity Is Pointing To A Rally To $4, Analyst Explains What’s Going On The chart shows Bitcoin trading below its harmonic center and fair value, with a negative deviation reinforcing the capitulation signal. A 90-day inset highlights a sharp drop to this lower boundary. Meanwhile, the two-year fair value estimate remains well above the current price, showing a significant gap between current levels and the modeled equilibrium. The oscillator also shows that cycle energy has reset to lower levels, similar to previous macro bottoms. Historically, these resets marked the shift from decline into accumulation phases. This does not mean price will immediately reverse, but statistically, readings like this have marked generational buying opportunities. While the analyst maintains a cautious stance aligned with the bearish trend, the -100 oscillator reading represents one of the most asymmetric setups in Bitcoin’s cycle history. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

After the Bitcoin price recovered from the flush to $63,000 over the last week, expectations are that the uptrend could continue. This has sparked predictions for the next rally and that the BTC price could move above $70,000 as a result of this. However, one analyst has thrown a wrench in this move, predicting that there could be another crash coming. This could lead to the final bottom, but suggests that much lower prices are coming first. The Ending Diagonal That Suggests Bitcoin Is Headed Downward EduwaveTrading posted an analysis on the TradingView website that paints a rather bearish picture for the Bitcoin price, at least in the short term. This prediction has to do with Bitcoin not reaching the previous swing low, and this could mean that there is another wave coming to help it hit that swing low. Related Reading: How High Will The Dogecoin Price Be If Bitcoin Reaches $200,000? As a result of the swing low not being hit, the crypto analyst suggests that Bitcoin could have dropped into an expanding ending diagonal pattern. This pattern, despite the recovery, points to another possible downward move. This move would be the start of a deeper downtrend that sends it to new yearly lows. The swing low target here lies just above $62,000 and could be a magnet for the price at this point. If the expanding ending diagonal pattern plays out, it means there is one more flush left. Once the swing low is broken, the analyst points out that Bitcoin could drop further below $59,000 before finding support again. Given this pattern, the crypto analyst suggests that investors may want to wait for this next flush to play out before doing anything. Only then would it be ‘safe’ to enter into Bitcoin, in order to avoid further losses. BTC Is Still Very Bearish Just like EduwaveTrading, another crypto analyst, Behdark, has predicted that Bitcoin will see another crash. This time around, the analyst points to the takeout on the downtrend lined the fact that the momentum has been dropping ahead, suggesting that Bitcoin is still very bearish. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved If the sellers continue to hold strong, then the crypto analyst sees Bitcoin falling toward $61,000, which coincides with the swing low that EduwaveTrading points out. Both of these analyses together say that it’s highly likely that the BTC price sees a strong move downward before establishing enough support to continue upward again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,000 but failed at $70,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above $69,200. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,500 support. The price is trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,400 and $67,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Fails At $70,000 Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $65,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $66,500 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,000 resistance. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,100, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,500 level. A close above the $69,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,850 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $70,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,000 level. The first major support is near the $67,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. The next support is now near the $65,650 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $64,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $67,500. Major Resistance Levels – $69,200 and $70,000.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plunged sharply over the weekend as missiles flew across the Middle East, exposing just how quickly geopolitical crises can send shockwaves through the financial markets. A joint US and Israel strike on Iran triggered a violent selloff that wiped out billions of dollars from the crypto market in a matter of hours. Fresh reports now indicate that Bitcoin and Ethereum are beginning to recover. Still, with geopolitical tensions continuing to escalate, it remains uncertain whether this renewed momentum can be sustained.  Bitcoin Price Recovers After US-Israel War Fueled Crash Geopolitical shockwaves rattled global financial markets this past weekend as a joint US and Israeli military operation against Iran sent Bitcoin into a sharp but brief decline, wiping out millions of dollars in long positions before a partial recovery took hold. Notably, BTC plummeted to nearly $63,000 overnight following the coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows Within 45 minutes of Israel launching its assault, Bitcoin shed $2,500 in value, while more than $200 million worth of long positions were liquidated in just one hour. The broader crypto market saw roughly $72 billion wiped out amid the chaos. The sell-off was swift and severe, with major exchange players including Binance, Coinbase, and trading firm Winternute offloading more than $3.5 billion in Bitcoin within a 20-minute window. This further added downward pressure to the already declining and volatile market. Despite the carnage, Bitcoin has since climbed back above $66,000, according to CoinMarketCap data, though volatility remains elevated as the Middle East conflict shows no signs of immediate resolution.  Market analysts were quick to explain the technical reasons behind BTC’s price decline. One expert noted that Bitcoin did not crash for no reason. She explained that because it was the most accessible and highest volume asset that trades around the clock, it was significantly exposed to weekend fear and panic selling compared to other major asset classes.  Ethereum Price Rebounds After Massive Sell-Off Ethereum also took a hit alongside Bitcoin following news of the US-Israel war. ETH dropped roughly 10% within just one hour of the news breaking, falling below $1,900 and erasing all the gains it had made when it briefly touched $2,000 last week. At its lowest point, Ethereum fell to around $1,850 before rebounding back above $1,950.  Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved Notably, the crash triggered sharp declines in Ethereum derivatives markets, with millions of dollars in liquidations. A large percentage of those liquidations came from long positions, suggesting that traders who had bet on Ethereum rising were hit the hardest.  In the broader context, the Ethereum price was already experiencing a downturn, meaning the geopolitical shock had compounded an already painful downtrend for ETH holders. In addition to Ethereum, other altcoins, such as XRP, saw major sell-offs as geopolitical tensions rose. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

An important long-term technical signal is still flashing bullish as Bitcoin approaches an important point on the higher timeframe charts. According to CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTCUSD has held support and is yet to display an active sell signal, even with recent market dynamics leading to contention as to whether the cycle has flipped bearish. His chart highlighted an interesting development on the one-month timeframe, where the structure has not yet transitioned into a confirmed sell. Monthly SuperTrend Still In Buy Mode In his post on X, Severino focused on the Bitcoin BTCUSD 1M chart and noted that the SuperTrend indicator has held support and kept its active buy signal. The monthly timeframe is particularly significant because it filters out short-term noise and shows a clear view of the broader cycle. Related Reading: XRP Daily Liquidity Is Pointing To A Rally To $4, Analyst Explains What’s Going On The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, with the SuperTrend level sitting just above $66,400. However, the indicator is still printing green on the monthly timeframe, which means that the macro trend has not flipped bearish. A monthly close below the SuperTrend line is what has always confirmed a sell signal, and that has not happened. The visual structure in the chart also shows how previous bear markets were characterized by a clear transition from green to red on the SuperTrend. At present, that transition has not occurred. Instead, the Bitcoin price is consolidating around the SuperTrend support. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @TonySeverinoCMT On X Is The Bottom Close Or Is More Patience Needed? Severino added an important caveat. According to him, almost all bear markets initially hold at support for a month or three before eventually turning into a sell signal. That observation points out that simply holding support does not automatically invalidate bearish risk. Although the analyst acknowledged that bear markets can linger at support before failing, he noted that the bottom is usually close after such behavior.  Related Reading: 5 Monthly Red Candles: How XRP Is About To Create A Historical Losing Streak Bitcoin ended February 14.8% below its monthly open, but it has managed to hold above the SuperTrend. That said, a confirmed monthly breakdown below the SuperTrend would materially change the outlook. Until that happens, the indicator is demonstrating that Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure. Severino later shared another post discussing a separate analysis based on the quarterly Ichimoku indicator. In that analysis, he stated that historical evidence and data suggest Bitcoin could fall another 38% to 66% from current levels. A decline of that magnitude would imply a Bitcoin bear market bottom anywhere from $40,000 to $25,000. Severino followed up in another post with a comment saying, “Sell, says the SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,000, down by 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The monthly structure has not fully broken, but the warnings indicate that the cryptocurrency may not be out of danger just yet. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Pure has indicated that the blood moon could be having an impact on the trajectory of the Bitcoin price. The analyst drew attention to historical trends, suggesting this might be the case and that a rally above $100,000 may be on the cards.  A Bitcoin Price Rally Above $100,000 May Be On The Cards In an X post, Pure drew attention to a potential correlation between the Blood Moons over the last 12 years and the Bitcoin price action. Based on this, the analyst’s chart suggested that BTC could still rally above $100,000 soon enough, potentially reaching the current all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. The chart also showed that there had typically been at least three Blood Moons in each of the past three BTC cycles.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Just Ramped Up Into The Billions Again, Is It Time To Get Back In? The third Blood Moon in each of those past cycles had notably marked a bottom for the Bitcoin price, with the leading crypto reaching new highs afterward. Now, a third Blood Moon is set to occur in this cycle after the ones that occurred on March 14 and September 7 last year. As such, there is the possibility that BTC could bottom again if history were to repeat itself.  Pure also noted that the next Blood Moon after tomorrow will occur after three years, indicating that it is the Blood Moon that could mark the bottom since none other is going to happen in this cycle. The analyst also admitted that this could mean that the max pain is about to end with a potential bullish reversal on the horizon for the Bitcoin price.  BTC Still In A Bear Market Regardless Of A Relief Bounce Market expert Benjamin Cowen reiterated that BTC is still in a bear market, though a relief bounce may be on the cards amid U.S.-Iran tensions. In an X post, Cowen noted that risk assets often sell off, then bounce as major conflicts begin. If a rally for the Bitcoin price occurs, the expert noted that it will likely result in a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows Cowen also noted that bear markets tend to take a while to play out. His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price bounced after the war between Russia and Ukraine began in 2022, but formed a lower high, leading to a deeper long-term decline before it bottomed. Notably, BTC bottomed year-end 2022 back then, which also coincides with Cowen’s prediction that BTC may bottom in the fourth quarter of this year.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $66,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin saw its price crash toward $60,000 last week, and naturally, investor sentiment took a plunge with it. Now, while the sentiment has been in a decline for the better part of five months, what stands out this time is how low the score on the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has gotten. In fact, the sentiment surrounding the crypto market has dropped so low that it has gotten to a point that has only been hit twice in the history of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Crashes To 9 Since hitting its all-time high of $126,000 back in August 2025, the sentiment has been ping-ponging, but now, it seems to have determined a direction. The trend has been mainly downward, and then last week, the index dropped to a low of 9. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP’s $15 Target Has Still Not Changed – Here’s Why The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index tracks the sentiment across the market using a number of factors, such as social sentiment and volume, among others. Thus, it gives a rather comprehensive view of how investors are feeling toward the market. The index ranges from 1-100, with 100-75 being Extreme Greed, 74-54 being Greed, 53-47 being Neutral, 46-26 being Fear, and 25-1 being Extreme Fear. Presently, the market is sitting in Extreme Fear, which means that investors are wary of getting into the market. More importantly, though, the last two times that the market sentiment was this low were the 2018-2019 bear market and then the FTX crypto exchange crash back in 2022. What’s interesting about these two different posts in history is what followed after the sentiment dropped this low. The initial reaction to this seems to be very similar, with a long accumulation trend following each time. Usually, this trend lasts for a few months, suggesting that the market is using this time to build up momentum. Related Reading: How High Will The Dogecoin Price Be If Bitcoin Reaches $200,000? However, like clockwork, there has been a steady upward move, meaning that sentiment this low could mark the end of the bear market. This then leads to the start of the bull market, and by the next year, the price is often hitting new all-time highs. Using this trend, it is likely that the Bitcoin price has hit or is close to hitting its bottom. In that case, a long period of accumulation could be the next course of action, and this could inevitably lead to the start of the next bull market. However, it is important to keep in mind that there have been points where Bitcoin has deviated from its set historical trend as new investors and macro factors begin to affect the financial markets. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $66,000. BTC is now consolidating above $66,000 and might aim for more gains above $67,200. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $65,500 support. The price is trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Key Resistance Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $63,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $64,500 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $67,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $68,000. A high was formed at $68,180, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $68,181 high. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $68,200 level. A close above the $68,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,500 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $67,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $68,181 high. The next support is now near the $64,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,500, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $67,000 and $68,200.

The past few days have seen shocking developments on the geopolitical front, with the United States and Israel launching coordinated strikes against Iran. The operation took place on Saturday, February 28, 2026, and because cryptocurrency markets trade around the clock, Bitcoin’s price action quickly reflected the shock. Bitcoin became the world’s real-time measure of fear, plunging, recovering, and leaving traders bracing for what comes next. Related Reading: Vitalik Buterin Lays Out A Plan To Make Ethereum 1,000 Times More Capable The Initial Shock: Bitcoin Tumbles Below $64,000 Bitcoin’s price action took a hit almost as soon as reports emerged that US and Israeli forces were conducting military operations inside Iran. Notably, Bitcoin plunged from a price of $65,572 to $63,176 in about an hour overnight following word of the strikes.  According to data from The Kobeissi Letter, over $100 million worth of leveraged Bitcoin longs were liquidated in just 15 minutes after the news broke out. The scale of the sell-off was significant: about $128 billion was wiped off the overall crypto market in a single hour as liquidations surged across global exchanges.  However, Bitcoin did not stay down for long after the initial plunge. The largest cryptocurrency started to stage a rebound as traders speculated on unfolding developments, including confirmation of the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei during the attacks. Early Asian trading saw BTC climb back above $67,000, regaining some ground as markets reevaluated the situation and eased momentary panic.  Bitcoin rose as much as 2.21% above $68,000 following the news of Khamenei’s death, with Coingecko data pointing to an intraday high of $68,043. Still, the recovery has been uneven, with price action reflecting ongoing uncertainty over how the geopolitical tensions will be resolved. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price action has corrected a bit from this intraday high and is now trading at $66,310. What Comes Next: Analysts Warn The Rally May Be Fragile Despite the bounce, market analysts across social media platforms are recommending caution. The real price reaction will happen on Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen. As it stands, the attacks are not yet a contained event, with missiles still hitting Dubai and Iranian retaliation across the Gulf. There is also the risk of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst Bitcoin is already currently down by almost 50% from its all-time peak of over $126,000 earlier in October 2024, unable to latch on to rallies in gold, silver, and other assets. All eyes will be on Monday’s market open, when the entire traditional investment niche starts to react to the full weight of the world’s most dramatic geopolitical escalation in years. Bitcoin is already in a fragile state, and because of that, a move to $60,000 could play out during the week if there’s any form of selling pressure. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market recorded another week of volatile price action, but continues to consolidate a defined range between $60,000 – $70,000.  Bearish sentiments remain at a heightened level, considering the downtrend observed in recent months and the non-confirmation of a cycle bottom.  Notably, recent on-chain data has revealed the importance of a particular support level, which, if breached, could expose investors to steeper downsides and extend the crypto winter. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows URPD Indicator Shows Fragile Market Set-Up – Details In an X post on February 27, market analyst Ali Martinez shared insights from Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), highlighting a thin demand zone below the $63,111 price region. The URPD metric, which tracks how much of the existing Bitcoin supply moved at price levels, shows a significant concentration of coins around the $63,000 range, suggesting strong holder positioning at this level. However, the data also reveals that below $63,111, supply density drops considerably until the next major accumulation cluster at approximately $46,702. This “air pocket” in realized supply indicates that if BTC decisively loses the $63,111 support, price action could accelerate to the downside due to the absence of strong cost-basis support in the interim zone. Beyond $46,702, Martinez identifies $41,653 and $37,867 as additional key support levels, where a notable amount of Bitcoin last changed hands. These levels represent significant holder cost bases and may act as demand zones should bearish pressure intensify. The structure observed on the URPD chart suggests a delicate market set-up, where Bitcoin is currently hovering above a critical support cluster. A breakdown below $63,111 could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing several classes of investors further into unrealized losses and increasing the risk of capitulation. Related Reading: How High Will The Dogecoin Price Be If Bitcoin Reaches $200,000? Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $66,677, reflecting a modest 1.15% gain in the last 24 hours. Despite this slight rebound, underlying sentiment suggests that panic may be gradually creeping into the market structure. According to the classic market cycle psychology model shared by Martinez, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from anxiety and denial toward a more fragile phase where confidence weakens and volatility increases. While the modest daily gain offers temporary relief, the broader psychological landscape indicates that the market is gradually entering panic mode, suggesting an impending emotional sell-off by investors that would force prices to lower bands. With a market cap of $1.33 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest digital asset and the 13th largest asset in the world. Featured image from Getty Images/Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels historically seen near bear market bottoms, signaling that selling pressure may be easing. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone often marking late-stage capitulation. The key question: was the recent drop the final flush, or is one last shakeout still ahead? RSI Compression Signals Downside Exhaustion According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same territory that historically marked prior bear market bottoms. This momentum zone has repeatedly appeared during late-stage capitulation phases, making it a critical signal that the market could be nearing another major turning point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Major Milestone As 100 BTC Wallets Approach Record Levels However, Batman is clear that this does not confirm the bottom is already in, stressing the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal. Still, he notes that when RSI compresses to these levels on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has typically been much closer to a structural low than to the beginning of a fresh collapse. Reflecting on the 2022 bear cycle, Batman points out that once RSI entered this extreme zone, price managed to print one final lower low. However, that move occurred very close to the ultimate bottom, indicating that most of the downside had already played out by the time momentum reached such depressed readings. The analyst concludes that probabilities matter more than precision. From his perspective, when Bitcoin trades at these weekly RSI levels, it historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive. Bitcoin’s Six Consecutive Weekly Lower Highs — A Rare Signal In a recent weekly Bitcoin analysis, SuperBro pointed out that BTC has now printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, a rare structural pattern. The last time this occurred was during the COVID crash in 2020, a period marked by extreme volatility and eventual macro reversal. Related Reading: Fidelity Thinks Bitcoin May Be Leaving Its 80% Crashes Behind Price is currently slipping beneath the 200-week EMA and the volume Point of Control (POC), though the weekly candle has not yet closed. A reclaim of the POC before the close could trigger a sharp upside reaction and signal that the breakdown attempt is losing strength. Just below current levels sits the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of higher-timeframe support. RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that momentum is already deeply stretched. When you combine oversold conditions with six straight lower highs pressing into major support, the case for sustained downside continuation becomes less convincing. Beyond the near-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If that macro pattern ultimately plays out, its upper trajectory projects potential targets north of $300,000,  keeping the long-term expansion thesis firmly on the table despite current compression. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A recent evaluation has surfaced that reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are slowly easing away from their deep profits, and that this could affect prices in either way, depending on further developments. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape Long-Term Holder Average Monthly SOPR Slips Under 1  In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, a pseudonymous on-chain analyst, Darkfost, reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are entering a fragile phase in the current cycle. This post is based on readings obtained from the BTC: Long-Term Holders (LTH) SOPR metric, which tracks if coins moved by Long-Term Holders are done profitably, or at a loss. A SOPR value above 1 reflects that holders of this category are, on average, realizing profits, while a reading below 1 signals that these coins are being moved at a loss. According to Darkfost, the current readings from the SOPR metric have fallen under the critical 1 level, and currently sit around 0.98 This is a sign that Bitcoin’s LTHs, which are typically the strongest investor hands in the market, are beginning to realize losses on a monthly basis. Interestingly, the scenario is somewhat different on the annual timeframe. Related Reading: XRP Emerging As Safe Haven? CEO Points To Steady Inflows As BTC, ETH Struggle Annual LTH SOPR Still Positive, But Trend Is Falling — Analyst  Darkfost further highlights that, although the monthly timeframe leans towards the red zone, the annualized SOPR still sits well into positive territory, with readings at approximately 1.84. According to the analyst, this represents about 84% in average realized gains, by implication. However, the annualized profits have taken on a downward trend and have been slowly falling. Notably, the LTH SOPR has not gone higher than 3.4 on the charts throughout the current cycle, a value that is approximately half the readings seen in the previous cycle’s peak. Interestingly, this is also less than four times the peak of the two previous cycles, suggesting a less impulsive distribution among this investor cohort.   Furthermore, Darkfost conjures historical data, showing that bear markets have formed only after the SOPR dropped towards the 0.6 region, a level that correlates with average realized losses of approximately 40%. Hence, while the current reading on the metric is below 1 every month, it is still far from the zone representing capitulation. For now, the Long-term holders have entered what seems to be a transitional phase. In the scenario where Long-Term Holder realized profits continue to fade, selling pressure might in turn erode from this side. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at a valuation of approximately $64,247, reflecting a loss of 4.85% over the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin price struggles persist as the premier cryptocurrency is yet to break above the key $70,000 resistance zone, suggesting the market remains at risk of a deeper correction. Notably, popular market analyst Yonsei_dent has shared an observation that backs these bearish investors’ expectations. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 Bitcoin Supply In Profit Metric Shows Potential 75% Drawdown  In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Yonsei_dent has identified a potential price bottom of the present market cycle, considering the meltdown in recent months. Since October, the leading cryptocurrency has lost over 45% of its market value, with prices dropping as low as $60,000 from an all-time high of $126,000. Using the Supply In Profit on-chain indicator, Yonsei_dent maps out the possible extent of Bitcoin’s price decline when in the bottom zone, based on historical cycle drawdown periods. For context, the Supply in Profit measures the portion of the total circulating Bitcoin whose current market price is higher than the price at which those coins last moved. It’s an important cycle indicator, as the Supply in Profit approaches extreme highs when near cycle tops, and compresses sharply when near cycle lows. Yonsei_dent explains that the duration of Bitcoin Supply in Profit in the bottom zone in 2022 was six months. During this market cycle, Bitcoin had initially hit an all-time high of $69,000 before crashing by 77% to around $15,500. According to the market analyst, if the same length of the bottom phase was placed on the current price chart, it represents a 70%-75% drawdown price projection for the present market cycle. In this case, Bitcoin is expected to find a price low within a range of $31,500 – $38,000, suggesting a further potential 41%-51% decline from the current market prices. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Bitcoin Price Overview  At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,553 following a 5.84% loss in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is up by a minor 0.54% and valued at $40.04 billion. The premier cryptocurrency also reports a negative performance on its weekly and monthly charts, with respective losses of 6.21% and 27.11%. Unless the market bulls convincingly reclaim the long standing $70k resistance, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile and prices vulnerable to additional downside or prolonged consolidation in the near term. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who is of the notion that the cryptocurrency has officially entered bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000.  Technical analysis of price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction to as low as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next price move. Bearish Territory Kicked In After Breakdown Below $107,000 The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered into bearish territory after the price broke down below a major higher-timeframe ascending trendline around $107,000. This trendline, which is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2023 to 2025 rally. It connected a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended with Bitcoin reaching a peak price of $126,080. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Done Or Is This Just The Beginning? Pundit Shares Points To Consider The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price decisively lost that upward support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered into a changed momentum and began printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was when Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next leg up. Fibonacci Levels Point To $44,000 And $35,000 Bitcoin has been on a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it bottoms out around $35,000. This outlook is based on how much the Bitcoin price corrected in previous cycles. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved For instance, the 2018 bear market saw an approximately 84% decline from peak to trough. Similarly, the 2022 correction erased roughly 77% from its cycle high. In both instances, these deep retracements came before the next major rally.  Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior. The projected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the October 2025 all-time high. Two levels stand out clearly on the chart. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always attracted strong buying interest in previous corrections, making it a possible stabilization point if selling pressure slows down. Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, then the next level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. The expectation is that Bitcoin will eventually bottom at $35,000 even if it fails to hold above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down by 6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Institutional capital has transformed the cryptocurrency market dynamics, changing who participates and how digital assets are traded. The arrival of spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury allocations, and access through major brokerage platforms has pulled Bitcoin and Ethereum deeper into traditional finance. Vanguard, for instance, reversed its long-held anti-crypto stance just a few months ago, allowing trading in funds that hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. However, talking about bad timing, these cryptocurrencies have struggled in the months following that policy change. Challenging Months For Institutional Investors The entrance of major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments was a structural turning point for Bitcoin. The January 2024 launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States opened the door for pension funds, registered investment advisors, and other conservative capital pools to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin. These ETFs have accumulated billions of dollars in inflows, with custodians now holding a meaningful share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week However, the past few months have been really challenging for investors. Notably, the last month of inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs was in October 2025, when it was pushing to new all-time highs above $126,000. Since then, it has been months of net outflows, and this has weighed down on Bitcoin’s price action. Same goes for Spot Ethereum ETFs, which recorded consecutive months of outflows since November 2025. Vanguard clients are likely among those feeling the impact most directly. In December 2025, US-based investment management company Vanguard reversed its anti-crypto stance and started allowing trading of ETFs and mutual funds that hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.  The availability of these crypto products on a major mainstream brokerage like Vanguard was a milestone for crypto investing. Vanguard manages over $12 trillion in assets and serves tens of millions of investors. Unsurprisingly, the price action of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies initially reacted positively to the Vanguard news. However, the timing coincided with a downturn across the entire crypto market, which has been having a red 2026 so far. Since Vanguard’s rollout, Bitcoin’s price has fallen by about 30%, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have fallen by about 40% in the same period. Is Institutional Involvement A Threat Or A Sign Of Maturity? It is clear that institutional entry has not erased the volatile nature of crypto markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still subject to swings in investor risk appetite, although this is now at a larger scale. Therefore, the question of whether institutions are killing Bitcoin and Ethereum is based on perspective.  Related Reading: Why Investors Are Not Buying Bitcoin And Ethereum Despite ‘Low’ Prices The presence of regulated ETFs means that downturns are now absorbed by a wider set of market participants. Companies like BitMine and Strategy are still in the business of huge purchases. New investor bases like this can help sustain prices over time.  However, one thing is clear: cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are no longer fringe assets operating outside the traditional investment system; they now sit within it. This integration will even become more clear once the CLARITY Act is passed in the US. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

As market participants focus on short-term price movements, Bitcoin is approaching a notable on-chain milestone, with the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC climbing toward record levels. This growing concentration of high-value holdings reflects increasing accumulation by large investors, and is viewed as a sign of strong long-term confidence in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. How Large Holders Influence Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Bitcoin is approaching a major milestone, with the number of wallet addresses holding at least 100 BTC set to surpass 20,000. An on-chain analytics firm, Santiment, highlighted on X that at current market valuations, a wallet holding 100 BTC or more is valued at roughly $6.78 million, indicating these addresses are largely controlled by high-net-worth individuals, funds, long-term holders, and institutional participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Underwater As Supply In Loss Spikes, Reaching Historic Extremes When the number of 100+ BTC wallets increases during or shortly after price declines, as it has been recently, it can be considered a bullish signal. While the number of whale wallets is rising, the overall percentage of BTC supply held by key stakeholders has not meaningfully increased. This helps explain why prices have remained suppressed. However, the growth in 100+ BTC wallets indicates broader distribution among large holders rather than a small group controlling the consolidation. In that sense, it points to less extreme consolidation at the very top. At the same time, it also shows that wealth is clearly migrating from smaller retail wallets into stronger hands. This does not signal decentralization at the smallest ownership level, but it does show that more separate entities are reaching the whale status. Historically, expanding whale wallet counts have often appeared during accumulation phases that later support the price recoveries. For a stronger structural shift to occur, the increase in wallet numbers would need to be matched by a rise in the overall supply they control. That dynamic typically unfolds as retail participants slowly sell off their coins to larger wallets. Meanwhile, history has shown that if retail traders eventually panic-sell or take profit too early, it might lead to the absorption stage. Is This A True Rebound Or A Dead Bounce? Bitcoin adoption is picking up pace across the sector. According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) just recorded their strongest day, pulling in roughly $500 million in a single day, reaching $750 million over the past two days combined at the time the report was published. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap Balchunas views the inflows as “a hitter in a slump going yard,” suggesting the market had been in urgent need of a catalyst after a prolonged period of weak performance. The strong back-to-back inflows have helped ease pressure on the sector, pushing year-to-date ETF outflows to under $2 billion. Despite the sharp turnaround, uncertainty remains about whether the inflow spike represents the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a temporary bounce. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Expert trader Tony Severino, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s top, has raised the possibility of a crash to $4,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to break key resistance levels, signaling that it could be at risk of a deeper decline.  Expert Trader Raises Potential Bitcoin Drop To $4,000 In an X post, Tony Severino questioned the possibility that the next Bitcoin bull market is a lower high followed by a lower low. His accompanying chart showed BTC may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could spark a crash to $4,000. As such, he urged market participants to play the range and cycles.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 5TH Wave Is Not Over Yet, And Price Could Still Crash To $52,000; Analyst Warns When asked about a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, the expert trader said it’s more speculative because the idea of a bottom can change over time. However, he noted that BTC is bottoming now on shorter timeframes and that on the longest timeframes, it could still take a while.  Severino also recently stated that he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, implying a bottom at around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $40,000 before it finds a bottom. Notably, BTC continues to struggle, suggesting it remains at risk of a deeper decline despite the recent relief rally to $70,000.  In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold. The platform added that this pattern is consistent with a thin-liquidity regime, in which even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.  How BTC Could Drop To $30,000 In This Bear Market Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market between 2009 and 2026. He warned that if the global macro breaks down, then the $30,000 level is the fallback level of support. The analyst highlighted $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? However, Willy Woo believes $45,000 would be a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that this bearish sell-off by investors appears to have been exhausted, which may allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month and possibly rebound to the mid $70,000 range. However, this level would likely be rejected.  The analyst explained that this is because the broader regime is heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Willy Woo predicts that Q4 would be a good time for the end of the bearish trend and that Q1 or Q2 2027 would be an appropriate time for bullish momentum to return.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

It has been a rough stretch for Bitcoin. Prices have been pinned between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks, and a brief dip below $67,000 on Thursday did little to ease investor nerves. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin The Poor Man’s Hedge Against Inflation? Coinbase CEO Thinks So Now, a handful of analysts are saying the worst of the selling may finally be over — though what comes next is far from exciting. No Crash, No Boom — Just Patience Crypto analyst Willy Woo put it plainly on X. The wave of bearish selling by investors “seems to have exhausted,” he said, giving Bitcoin some breathing room to trade flat for the next few weeks. A small bounce toward the mid-$70,000 range is possible. But Woo was clear — that kind of move would almost certainly be pushed back down before it gains any real footing. His best guess for when the bearish trend actually ends is Q4 2026. A genuine bull run, he said, probably won’t return until Q1 or Q2 of 2027. This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected. This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE — Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026 The wait, in other words, is measured in quarters — not weeks. Woo also flagged something that doesn’t show up in Bitcoin’s price chart. Both spot and futures market liquidity are deteriorating at the same time. That combination, he said, has never historically produced a real Bitcoin rally. Until one or both of those conditions improve, any upward movement is likely to be temporary. Why Did Bitcoin Drop In The First Place? Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan had a straightforward answer to that question. Forget the theories about market manipulation or fears over quantum computing breaking crypto encryption. According to Hougan, the explanation is simple — people who owned Bitcoin sold it. Some followed the four-year market cycle. Others cashed out to fund investments in AI companies. Some had no particular reason beyond wanting out. “They are mostly done selling, and we are in the process of bottoming,” he wrote on X. The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else. The real reason bitcoin is down is that a… — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 26, 2026 Spring Will Come New all-time highs will come, he added. “This is a classic crypto winter, and there will be a classic crypto spring.” Related Reading: Aave Crosses $1 Trillion In Loans — No Bank Required For now, Woo’s analysis offers the most grounded take on where things stand. The selling has slowed. The market is catching its breath. But with liquidity still weak and no clear catalyst on the horizon, Bitcoin’s path forward looks less like a comeback and more like a long, quiet wait — one that, by his own estimate, won’t end until the final months of 2026 at the earliest. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Following the Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 in early February, the question on the lips of every investor is when the bleed will end. To this end, a number of analysts have shared their expectations and predictions for where the Bitcoin bottom might be. Some have posited that the worst is over, while others have suggested that there are still more crashes to come. Following the latter trend, crypto analyst Plan C has shared why they believe the Bitcoin price has finally reached a bottom. Bitcoin 80-90% Crash Not Possible This Time Around In previous cycles, when the Bitcoin market had gone from a bull run to a bear market, there have been varying degrees of crashes that were experienced before the bottom was established. Over the last few bear markets, these have been around 80-90% crashes, often spurred by major events surrounding the market. Following this trend, expectations remain that Bitcoin might also see a similar crash, which would mean that the bear market is far from over. However, crypto analyst Plan C has combated this idea, as he believes that bitcoin will not repeat the exact same trend seen before. Related Reading: XRP Price Turns Completely Bearish, But Is A Crash To $1 Still Possible? Instead of the 80-90% crash that is expected to put Bitcoin somewhere around the $25,000-$30,000 range, the analyst says that Bitcoin will only crash 50-60% this cycle. If this is correct, it would mean that Bitcoin is not far from registering a bottom at this point. Going by this, his forecast, this would put the Bitcoin price bottom somewhere between $50,000 and $63,000. Given that the BTC price had previously fallen below $63,000, it means that the bottom might be in, or close to it. Such a deviation would mean that Bitcoin would no longer be following the established 4-year cycle trend. This is not a new theory, as analysts in the past have suggested that the digital asset began deviating from the 4-year cycle when it hit a new all-time high back in early 2024, before the halving. This was triggered by institutional entry through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, bringing about a new wave of bull runs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lows: Analyst Says We’re Doomed If This Happen While predictions continue to fly around the crypto community and speculations about what price Bitcoin will bottom at, it remains a matter of time to see what eventually happens. For now, the bulls continue to put up a fight in a bid to send the price above $70,000 again. But sentiment remains firmly negative as the Fear & Greed Index continues to sit in Extreme Fear. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,000. BTC is now consolidating above $66,250 and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,200 support. The price is trading above $67,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,250 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips To Support Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $68,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,000 level. There is also a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $68,250 level. A close above the $68,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,500 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,000 level. The first major support is near the $66,250 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $65,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,000, followed by $66,500. Major Resistance Levels – $68,000 and $68,500.

Bitcoin is now inching towards $70,000, but there is enough to worry about around $64,000. Crypto analyst Tara expressed concern that Bitcoin’s fifth wave may not be complete, with a prediction that further downside could still be ahead.  In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that the current move could either be the start or the final stretch of a fifth wave decline, and there’s still a possibility of the Bitcoin price falling to as low as $52,000. Double Bottom Support At $59,900 And $60,500 Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Tara shows that Bitcoin has built a major support around the $59,900 to $60,500 range. This area is based on prior swing lows and a visible double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick price chart. It also coincides with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels projected from above $70,000. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? According to the analyst, Bitcoin could see a strong reaction if the price were to fall to that region. A bounce from this support could drive the Bitcoin price back to $64,400, which would then be tested as resistance instead of support. However, such a rebound may only be temporary. If the macro fifth wave structure continues to play out, the market could still be setting up for one final push lower after that retest. According to Tara’s wave interpretation, this final push lower could extend to as low as $52,000.  This level is not yet fixed and will be remeasured as price action develops, but it represents a possible completion zone for the broader fifth wave. It is important to note that Bitcoin actually managed to hold above $60,000 throughout February, so therefore, the outlook to $52,000 is a worst-case scenario. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour timeframe is trending lower and approaching oversold territory. Tara advised traders to watch for bullish divergence on the RSI during the next drop. A bullish divergence on the RSI could be the first sign of the end of the corrective structure. Bitcoin Might Register Higher Support At $64,000 Over the past few weeks, the $64,000 region has stood out as a decisive pivot for Bitcoin, repeatedly flipping between support and resistance depending on the direction of price. In a separate update, Tara highlighted that Bitcoin recently backtested the macro 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64,400 as resistance before attempting to push higher. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Reclaiming $64,000 would be an important step toward reversing the current bearish macro trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,220, up 4% over the past 24 hours. Even so, there is still a risk of a pullback.  A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the short-term recovery and could expose the prior swing low at $60,500. On the flip side, bullish momentum would be confirmed if Bitcoin breaks above $70,000. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com