Bitcoin is once again attempting to reclaim the $90,000 level, but price action remains capped below this key psychological threshold. Despite several short-lived relief rallies, momentum has failed to follow through, reinforcing growing concerns that the broader market structure is weakening. As volatility persists and upside attempts stall, an increasing number of analysts are beginning to openly discuss the possibility that Bitcoin may be transitioning into a bear market phase. Sentiment across derivatives and spot markets has turned noticeably more cautious, with risk appetite continuing to fade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lags Network Utility: A Valuation Reset Is Underway In this context, a recent report by Darkfost draws attention to a familiar but controversial narrative: capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin. With gold setting a new all-time high above $4,420 per ounce, the idea that investors may soon shift capital toward Bitcoin is resurfacing across the market. Historically, this narrative has gained traction during periods when traditional safe-haven assets outperform, fueling speculation that Bitcoin could follow as an alternative store of value. However, Darkfost cautions that this assumption is far from well-grounded. While the rotation thesis has been widely repeated throughout this cycle, empirical evidence linking gold outperformance directly to sustained Bitcoin inflows remains weak. Rather than signaling an imminent bullish turn, the current setup suggests that Bitcoin remains vulnerable, caught between macro-driven narratives and deteriorating internal market structure. Testing the Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Thesis Darkfost emphasizes that the popular narrative of capital rotating from gold into Bitcoin lacks direct, verifiable evidence. To address this, he constructed a comparative framework to identify periods where such rotations may have occurred. He did this without assuming a causal relationship. The core issue, as he notes, is that on-chain and market data cannot conclusively prove that capital exiting gold is the same capital entering Bitcoin. To approximate potential rotation phases, Darkfost applied a simple but disciplined signal structure. A positive signal appears when Bitcoin is trading above its 180-day moving average while gold is trading below its own 180-day moving average. In theory, this configuration suggests relative strength shifting toward Bitcoin. Conversely, a negative signal is triggered when both Bitcoin and gold trade below their respective 180-day moving averages. Indicating a broad risk-off environment rather than a rotation. This methodology allows historical comparison across cycles, highlighting moments where relative performance diverged. However, the results challenge the simplicity of the narrative. As shown on the chart, these signals do not produce consistent or reliable outcomes. In several instances, supposed rotation periods failed to generate sustained upside for Bitcoin. At other times, Bitcoin rallied independently of gold’s trend. The takeaway is clear: capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin is not an absolute or mechanical process. Market behavior appears far more nuanced. Driven by broader macro conditions, liquidity dynamics, and investor positioning rather than a straightforward asset-to-asset rotation. Related Reading: Ethereum Traders Chase Upside With Historic Leverage – Breakout Fuel Or Fragile Setup? Price Struggles Below Key Moving Averages Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase, but the chart highlights that price action remains structurally fragile. BTC is currently trading just below the $90,000 level, an area that has flipped from support into near-term resistance following the recent breakdown. While the latest bounce shows short-term buying interest, it has not yet altered the broader bearish structure that formed after the October highs. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-3D moving average (blue), which has started to slope downward, signaling weakening momentum. The failure to reclaim this level suggests that recent upside moves are corrective rather than impulsive. Related Reading: Legendary Bitcoin OG Deepens Ethereum Bet Despite Losses Exceeding $70 Million Below the current price, the 100-3D moving average (green) sits near the $85,000–$86,000 zone and has acted as interim support during the rebound. A sustained loss of this area would likely expose BTC to a deeper retracement toward the 200-3D moving average (red), currently rising near the low $80,000 region. The sell-off was accompanied by elevated volume. While the rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation, pointing to a lack of conviction from buyers. Structurally, Bitcoin is consolidating in a lower range. With lower highs and compressed volatility suggesting a pause rather than a trend reversal. For bulls, reclaiming and holding above $90,000 and the declining 50-3D moving average is critical to invalidate the bearish bias. Until then, price action favors range-bound trading with downside risk still present. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Ark Invest’s CEO and CIO, Cathie Wood, joined Fox Business’s “Morning With Maria” to discuss her investment strategy as she believes the US is entering a “historic productivity surge,” and why she is bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) for 2026. Related Reading: All Eyes On Ethereum: Price Attempts Key Breakout As BlackRock Files For Staked ETH ETF The Four-Year Cycle Will Be ‘Disrupted’ On Tuesday, Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, shared her perspective on the recent Bitcoin performance, which has retraced over 10% in the past month and struggled to reclaim crucial levels over the past few weeks. To Wood, Bitcoin has been behaving like a risk-on asset and is currently “climbing another wall of worry” that has made investors wary of the leading crypto asset’s upcoming performance. As she explained, there is a fear of the four-year cycle, which suggests that 2026 will be a corrective year for Bitcoin. Historically, BTC has seen significant price pullbacks during bear markets, with retraces of up to 75% to 90% in previous cycles. The aggressive Q4 2025 correction has shattered most investors’ expectations of an end-of-year bull run, raising concerns that the crypto market has already entered the bearish phase of the cycle after the more than 30% drop from the October highs. However, Ark Invest’s CEO considers that “the four-year cycle is going to be disrupted” as volatility has significantly diminished over the past few years, and large-scale investors turn to the rapidly growing industry. “We think that the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline,” Wood affirmed, noting, “we might have seen it a couple of weeks ago,” when BTC managed to hold the $80,000 barrier during the late November correction. She previously asserted that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for the cryptocurrency, adding that institutions “really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started, so we have a long way to go.” Bitcoin To Outperform Gold Soon? During the interview, Wood also reaffirmed her previous forecast that the flagship crypto will outperform gold next year, despite its choppy performance during the last quarter of 2025. She highlighted that “gold is more of a risk-off asset,” and its 60% year-to-date (YTD) rise is “proof” that Bitcoin is climbing a wall of worry as investors “are using gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks.” Nonetheless, Ark Invest’s CEO pointed out that between the early 80s and the late 90s, gold peaked and “went down as we were in the golden age of innovation, ending with the internet.” Related Reading: Wall Street Giant Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Price To Hit $1 Million By 2033 Now, she believes that the same could happen soon, as what she calls “the AI age” starts and the market potentially recovers. Meanwhile, she forecasted that Bitcoin would remain risk-on and outperform gold in 2026. “I really believe we are moving from a rolling recession where we’ve been for the last three years, into a rolling recovery, which we think we are entering now. Then, a productivity-driven boom the likes of which we have never seen before,” Wood concluded. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,011, a 3.75% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Last week was defined by simultaneous declines in US equities, Treasurys, and the dollar—an exceptionally rare trifecta that macro investor Jordi Visser described as the moment “the system officially broke”—Bitcoin’s price action has remained conspicuously muted. Despite gold rallying over 4% in just a few days, Bitcoin has failed to respond with comparable strength, a divergence that Visser attributes to deep-rooted skepticism from institutional finance. Visser, president and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers and a veteran of over three decades on Wall Street, sat down for an in-depth interview with Anthony Pompliano to unpack what he called a historic rupture in the global capital structure. Central to his thesis is that US government bonds—long considered the most risk-free asset in the world—are no longer behaving as such. “The top of the global capital structure, the safest asset in the world, is falling,” Visser said, referring to US Treasurys underperforming even against other sovereign debt. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Last Drawdown To $74,000 A ‘Healthy Correction’ — Analyst Says Month-to-date, he noted, US bonds are down over 5%, equities have also dropped more than 5%, and the US dollar index is off by a similar magnitude. “The currency, bonds, and stocks all going down in a panic way—that doesn’t happen. The last time I saw that was in emerging markets,” Visser said, drawing parallels to financial crises he observed firsthand in Brazil during the 1990s. What This Means For Bitcoin The implications for Bitcoin in this environment are complex. While many in the crypto community expected BTC to surge amid macro instability, Visser says Wall Street still views Bitcoin through an equity-like lens. “Wall Street doesn’t believe in Bitcoin,” he said bluntly. “The problem is the view on Bitcoin is that it’s NASDAQ. So I don’t think it should be skyrocketing like gold yet. That happens when we get the printing press turned on again—which is going to have to happen.” According to Visser, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold is not a repudiation of its long-term thesis but rather a reflection of who holds what, and when they’re allowed to act. “Gold’s a different story. Sovereign wealth funds already own it. Central banks already own it. Hedge funds love to buy gold. Bitcoin? Not yet.” He emphasized that Bitcoin’s moment will likely come not amid the crisis itself, but in its aftermath, when monetary authorities begin resorting to aggressive stimulus—what he termed “debasement,” historically the go-to solution in past crises. Visser was adamant that despite Bitcoin’s price inertia, it is in fact doing its job: “Bitcoin is the digital asset of the digital economy.” In his view, the current turmoil marks the transition from a unipolar, dollar-centric world to a fragmented, multipolar one. “We’re entering a new world, and this new system is decentralized,” he said. That transition, accelerated by both geopolitical fragmentation and advances in AI, is unlikely to be smooth. Visser predicts increased volatility and declining trust in legacy financial infrastructure, which could serve as long-term tailwinds for Bitcoin. His analysis ties Bitcoin’s trajectory closely to global liquidity cycles, noting that much of the world’s debt is denominated in US dollars. As such, a falling dollar paradoxically boosts liquidity globally, particularly for emerging markets and risk assets. “Bitcoin will be four to eight weeks—four to 10 weeks—later,” he said, referring to its lagging correlation with liquidity expansions. “You’ll look back eight weeks from now and say, ‘I can’t believe I didn’t see they were going to print to stop this thing.’ They do it every single time.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Buying Again — Can They Push BTC Price Higher? Still, he was clear-eyed about the near-term structural headwinds. Institutional allocators, especially hedge funds, face two major constraints: investor redemptions and prime broker margin requirements. “Wall Street has an embedded side that prevents them from going through it,” Visser explained. “Retail just buys more on the dip. Wall Street can’t.” Even in the face of institutional hesitancy, Visser underscored that the global conversation around trade, capital flows, and currency trust is now permanently altered. “Does the US want to be the reserve currency anymore?” he asked. “From a government official perspective in trade, it’s no longer the reserve currency. The trade deficit has been put in by the administration.” The consequence, he warned, is that the US is now effectively exporting fiscal deficits to other nations as global trade recedes. In such a world—where nationalism replaces globalism and bilateral trust continues to erode—Visser believes decentralized systems will inevitably grow more relevant. “I do think the agreement will end up being that decentralization will speed up from here because of AI and because of crypto,” he said. But he cautioned that while the architecture is being laid, mainstream acceptance remains gated by perception, policy, and institutional adoption cycles. In sum, Visser sees Bitcoin not as a failed safe haven, but as an emergent asset still waiting for its structural breakout moment. Until Wall Street stops viewing Bitcoin as a risk-on tech proxy—and until central banks inevitably revert to monetary stimulus—BTC will remain in the shadows of gold. But he was unequivocal in where he believes it’s headed. “We are getting closer to that day every single day,” he said, referring to the moment when Bitcoin’s role in the global capital system finally clicks into place. As Visser sees it, the system may be broken—but that’s precisely how something new gets built. At press time, BTC traded at $84,689. Featured image from YouTube, char from TradingView.com
Blackrock's IBIT ETF now holds upwards of $33 billion in assets, more than the asset manager's gold fund.
The fund touts leveraged exposure to Bitcoin and gold as investors brace for inflation and geopolitical strife.
A Bitcoin analyst predicts the cryptocurrency's price could soar above $800,000 following Trump's promise to integrate it into the US's strategic reserves.
Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization of roughly $1.3 trillion, while the entire crypto market cap is roughly $2.4 trillion.