THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin (BTC) made a notable recovery on Friday, witnessing a 4% surge that led the leading cryptocurrency to retest the critical $74,000 resistance level, which has remained unbroken for the past month.  However, even with this upward movement, the cryptocurrency has retraced to approximately $72,215, establishing itself at the upper boundary of its ongoing consolidation range. Further Declines For Bitcoin Ahead? Analyst Sunny Mom from CryptoQuant emphasizes that, despite these recoveries, Bitcoin has yet to establish a definitive bottom. She suggests that further price declines may be ahead, as current on-chain data reveals that the market is in a significant “stress test” phase.  Diving into the data, Sunny identifies several key factors that indicate the challenges ahead for Bitcoin. First, she points to the 6-12 month cohort of investors, who are currently underwater due to their Realized Price (RP) being concentrated around $100,000.  This means that many of these mid-term holders are seeing losses, which could continue to exert downward pressure on prices until this imbalance resolves.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Sunny also highlights the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which stands at 1.2. This figure is commonly regarded as a “DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) zone” for “smart money.” However, substantial cyclical bottoms typically require the MVRV to be less than 1.0, indicating a state of capitulation.  Furthermore, the importance of long-term holders (LTHs) cannot be overstated. A sustainable price floor generally requires that LTHs—those who have held their positions for over two years—constitute more than 20% of the Realized Cap.  Currently, they make up only about 15%, suggesting that the market lacks the robust structural support needed for a strong recovery. She outlines two potential paths for how Bitcoin could find its bottom.  Two Potential Paths To Find A True Bottom The first involves a “Black Swan” event—a sudden crash that triggers forced liquidations among high-cost investors. Although painful, Sunny believes this scenario could lead to a faster establishment of a solid Bitcoin price floor, potentially within one to two months.  The second path, referred to as “The Great Boring,” envisions institutions maintaining their positions, allowing Bitcoin to trade in the $60,000 to $80,000 range for an extended period.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance The analyst asserts that this would enable new investments to mature into long-term holdings, setting the stage for a bottoming process that could extend into late 2026 or early 2027. While the market may be at a “Value Bottom” conducive to long-term dollar-cost averaging, Sunny’s analysis suggests that a true “Structural Bottom” for Bitcoin has yet to form. Consequently, she noted that volatility within the $60,000 to $70,000 range is anticipated.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout.  However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase. Bitcoin Recovery In Sight?  Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month.  Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis.  When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend. Potential Upside Emerges The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000. Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year’s US midterm elections.  New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500. Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?  The research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years.  Binance’s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500—marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.  Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years. The research emphasizes what they call “The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly.  The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well.  If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles.  With Bitcoin’s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached.  Is The End Of The Bear Market Near? NewsBTC reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on February 6. Related Reading: White House Crypto Advisor Denounces Attempts To Sabotage CLARITY Act’s Goals Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path. With this pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most frustrating phase in the cycle.”  According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin finds itself in a period characterized by heightened uncertainty, with market signals indicating more hesitation than firm conviction. Bear Market Signals Three key on-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase for market participants, specifically Apparent Demand, the CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, and the Long-Term Holder SOPR. Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion After the most recent sell-off, Apparent Demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting that opportunistic buyers were stepping in to capitalize on the recent price drop. However, this uptick was short-lived, quickly retreating to negative territory.  Moreno also emphasized the absence of persistent buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he believes shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices. The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment, as it currently signals a phase typically associated with bear market consolidation.  Moreover, the analyst noted that the behavioral dynamics at play can influence the cost bases of various market cohorts. He asserts that as short-term holders realize losses or transition to longer-term holders, the realized prices of Bitcoin can decline.  Lastly, the Long-Term Holder SOPR metric is beginning to show that even seasoned investors are starting to realize losses, dropping below the crucial threshold of 1. Historically, this tends to arise in the later stages of bear markets when extended uncertainty erodes even the staunchest beliefs in the asset’s value.  Bitcoin Eyes $72,000–$73,000 Resistance Level In the context of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, outperforming gold and traditional stocks during the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.  Crypto stocks have also benefited, given their ability to be traded at any hour, unhindered by banking schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:  Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an edge for the asset class. When the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, crypto-native markets were the only venue open for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate. Additionally, Bitcoin has seen a positive uptick of about 4% following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war may be winding down. Trump stated, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran has “nothing left in a military sense.” Related Reading: XRP Price Outlook: Analyst Foresees New All-Time Highs Above $40 In 2026 While attempting to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin is also seeking to break through its recent local high in the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone, which was unsuccessfully tested last week.  Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold with significant volume could shift the narrative from a mere short squeeze to a genuine momentum recovery. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year.  Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market.  In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning.  Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted.  Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase  In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges.  Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated.  Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows.  Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode.  Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level.  Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend.  Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone.  The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685.  With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing.  In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area.  Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has wrapped up February with its fifth straight monthly loss, marking only the second time in its history that the leading cryptocurrency has printed five consecutive red candles on the monthly chart.  Upside Call Options Surge The latest decline saw Bitcoin fall to around $63,000 last Saturday, representing a roughly 15% drop for the month of February. However, the start of March has brought a modest rebound.  The asset opened the first week of the month at $68,600, posting gains of just over 3% as it attempts to reclaim the $70,000 level, which has continuously acted as a significant resistance barrier over the past several weeks. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Slips Toward Critical Support, Breakdown Threat Emerges Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market participants appear relatively composed. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said traders do not anticipate the Iran conflict causing major economic disruption.  In a note to Bloomberg, Thielen said that demand for upside Bitcoin call options has increased in recent days, suggesting that some investors are positioning for a potential rally ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The current setup has also reignited historical comparisons. The last time Bitcoin experienced a similar string of red monthly candles was during the 2018–2019 bear market.  In that earlier cycle, the asset went on to print six consecutive monthly losses. What followed was a sharp reversal: five straight green candles and a 308% surge, with Bitcoin climbing from roughly $3,400 to $14,000. Market Watchers Split On Bitcoin Outlook Market expert Ash Crypto recently highlighted this pattern on social media, suggesting that if history were to repeat, Bitcoin could be approaching a cyclical bottom after its fifth red month.  A comparable 300% advance from current trading levels would imply a potential move toward $272,000. Such a projection, however, depends on whether the recent lows ultimately prove to be the final bottom of this correction. Related Reading: XRP Faces $650 Million Sell Risk As US-Iran Conflict Sparks Risk-Off Move Not all analysts are convinced that the downside is over. Technical analyst Virtual Bacon has outlined the possibility of further retracement before a sustained recovery can be expected.  He identified $65,000—previously an all-time high—as the first key level, noting that the price has already revisited that zone. For those who subscribe to the thesis that former highs often turn into support, he suggested that the opportunity may already be present. A deeper pullback, in his view, could bring Bitcoin toward $58,000, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) currently sits. Historically, that long-term indicator has played a critical role in defining market bottoms.  It helped contain the sharp selloff during the 2020 COVID-19 crash, marked the absolute low in 2018, and was tested multiple times in 2015 without ever closing below it every week.  Because of this track record, the 200-week moving average has been widely regarded as one of the most reliable long-term accumulation zones in Bitcoin’s history. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a sharp rebound in the Bitcoin price that pushed the digital asset close to the $70,000 level once again. Bitcoin climbed roughly 8% on the day, approaching a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month. The renewed strength was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) advanced 12%, XRP gained 8%, and Solana (SOL) surged 13%, reflecting a wider return of risk appetite across digital assets.  Bitcoin Price Nears $70K As Altcoins Outperform Market experts suggest the bounce may be driven largely by investors stepping in after an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the upward move likely reflects dip-buying activity following the recent selloff.  She added that a decisive move back above $70,000 for the Bitcoin price could alter the broader market narrative, potentially restoring confidence after weeks of pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be In A Price Slump—But Adoption Is In A Bull Market Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. Although demand for cryptocurrencies in the US has softened in recent weeks, it seems that capital is now rotating into altcoins, as evidenced by the gains made by ETH, XRP and SOL, which have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 24 hours.  Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack, noted that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the context of the broader financial system. When liquidity conditions tighten, he said, volatility tends to increase.  In that environment, assets such as Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that were previously driven primarily by momentum. Still, some analysts caution against interpreting the rebound as a definitive turning point.  Is Bitcoin Forming A New Bottom? Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, drew comparisons to the market environment in 2022, when a steep decline was followed by months of sideways consolidation before a sustained recovery eventually took hold.  He observed that after the 2022 Bitcoin price downturn, it took more than a year for the market to regain and surpass prior highs, suggesting patience may be required this time as well. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, offered a nuanced view in his latest Bitcoin price outlook. He argued that the most intense phase of downside pressure is likely already behind the market.  Among the supportive signals he cited were Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average (MA) and realized price, historically important technical levels.  Related Reading: Expert Forecasts $5 Trillions Pouring Into Crypto Post CLARITY Act Passage In addition, more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently underwater, the relative strength index has reached levels often associated with capitulation, and several other on-chain indicators are flashing signs that a bottom may be forming. However, Thorn also warned that even if the worst of the decline has passed, further challenges could lie ahead for the Bitcoin price. He said that market bottoms typically take time to fully develop, and prolonged sideways movement remains a possibility.  A downturn in equities could exert additional pressure on digital assets, and the broader market still appears to lack a strong catalyst to drive sustained upside momentum.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may not be building a base for recovery.  Instead, the firm argues that the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to another downward move, driven by three overlapping forces: weakening equity momentum, structural changes in Bitcoin’s volatility profile, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is steady but not supportive. Structural Headwinds For Bitcoin According to the report, Bitcoin no longer trades in isolation. It has become increasingly linked to equity markets, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. At the moment, that linkage is not working in its favor.  Bitcoin is already showing signs of weakness, equity markets are losing steam, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining a neutral stance that offers little additional liquidity support. Together, those factors keep downside risks elevated. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown While Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize in recent weeks, Ecoinometrics cautions that this does not resemble a clear bottoming pattern. Rather, it looks more like a pause within an ongoing bear phase.  Structural headwinds are already in place, as highlighted by the firm, including continued outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a broader “risk-off” environment in financial markets. The report noted that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend, with its 200-day moving average (currently above $100,000) turning downward and rallies repeatedly failing beneath that level — a classic sign of a bearish structure.  By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them.  Lower Volatility, Higher Correlation Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and subsequent crashes.  This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower.  This change reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles.  Bitcoin, in other words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability.  However, it comes with a trade-off: deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. Downside Risks Grow On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully contained, and the labor market remains resilient.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture As a result, rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground. For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets begin to slide. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, investors are increasingly questioning when the cryptocurrency might finally establish its next bottom.  According to market expert and technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa, the current bear phase is unlikely to drag on for another full year. In his view, Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader uptrend before year-end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed?  In a recent analysis published on X, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows.  Accumulation, he explained, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume. Historically, this phase has lasted anywhere from two to four months. Related Reading: Can XRP Hold Above $1? Token Tumbles 11% as Breakdown Fuels Crash Concerns Looking back at previous cycles, Sherpa notes a fairly consistent rhythm. Bitcoin experienced a powerful rally in 2017 and again in 2021, each followed by a steep year-long decline in 2018 and 2022.  After those major drawdowns came an extended stretch of accumulation, as seen in 2019 and 2020. From the top in 2017 to the bottom in 2018, and similarly from 2021 to 2022, it took about one year for Bitcoin to complete its downward move.  Another common feature of past bear markets, he argues, has been a final capitulation event — a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the end of the downtrend.  Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If that interpretation is correct, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation. Accumulation Could Already Be Underway  Because the 2024 and 2025 rallies were structurally different, Sherpa believes the decline will also differ. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year from peak to bottom and saw drawdowns of approximately 85% and 75%, respectively, he does not expect the current downturn to mirror that pattern exactly. One reason, he says, is the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although ETF products can and do decline along with the broader market, they have changed the structure of capital flows.  He also points to the lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin traded for roughly eight months. From a technical analysis perspective, such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks.  Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Gives Back Gains, Support Level Under Spotlight As for timing, broader macroeconomic forces — including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and even developments in artificial intelligence — remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa does not think BTC needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom. If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide was indeed the final Bitcoin price capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, that phase has lasted between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days. However, he acknowledges one key risk to his outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another sell-off emerges — for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000— he would interpret that as the definitive bottoming event. In that scenario, accumulation would likely follow for several months. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues.  No Systemic Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends.  In situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the crypto industry.  Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level.  Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem and FTX’s bankruptcy.  It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers.  The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to $3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock.  Bitcoin rebounded quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained speculative energy from the market.  Active addresses declined by 70%, and miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years to revisit its previous peak.  Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses exceeding 80% have required three years or longer.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation.  Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term resistance wall at $70,000.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Standard Chartered lowered its long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the second time in less than three months as the cryptocurrency market appears to have entered a new bearish cycle. With the leading cryptocurrency currently consolidating below the key $70,000 level, the bank now warns that the asset could fall as low as $50,000 before staging a recovery. Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Target to $100,000 In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.  The latest figure marks a significant reduction from its previous $150,000 projection for BTC. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from an ambitious $300,000. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup According to Bloomberg’s report on the matter, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior, especially over the past month’s downtrend. The leading cryptocurrency has declined more than 40% from its October peak toward current trading prices of around $67,160, while the US spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) sector has seen nearly $8 billion in net outflows.  Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have weighed heavily on digital assets. In particular, declining ETF holdings have removed what had been a critical source of demand during previous rallies. The interest‑rate environment remains a central concern. Markets have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously thought.  Kendrick also pointed to uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to Bitcoin caution. The bank warned that deteriorating macro conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term. Ethereum Could Drop To $1,400 Despite the more conservative Bitcoin forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous crypto market collapses.  Kendrick highlighted that on‑chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy.  Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Moreover, the bank’s head of research highlighted that the market has not experienced the type of high‑profile platform failures that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion. The bank also revised its outlook for Ethereum (ETH). Its 2026 price target for the second‑largest cryptocurrency was reduced to $4,000 from $7,500. Before reaching that level, analysts expect Ether could fall to around $1,400.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown  Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market.  Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions.  He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions.  According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating.  Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe.  In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends.  However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.”  This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation.  He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking.  By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency.  In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory.  Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.  Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold.  He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto market maker Wintermute published a detailed market update on Tuesday via X (previously Twitter), offering a comprehensive breakdown of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent collapse, who was behind the selling pressure, and what conditions must change for a meaningful recovery to take hold. Wintermute Details Brutal Bitcoin Crash The firm described the past week as exceptionally severe for Bitcoin. Prices fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and continued sliding to around $60,000 before stabilizing in the low $70,000 range by the weekend.  According to Wintermute, the decline erased all of Bitcoin’s gains that followed Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, accompanied by widespread liquidations.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target More than $2.7 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out as months of range‑bound trading encouraged excessive leverage that ultimately unraveled.  Wintermute also pointed to the growing influence of Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) on price action, noting that BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw more than $10 billion in notional trading volume on Thursday.  Wintermute identified three major catalysts that struck the market at the same time. The first was the January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, which altered expectations around monetary policy.  The second was a wave of disappointing earnings from large technology firms, highlighted by Microsoft shares dropping 10%. The third was a dramatic reversal in precious metals, where silver plunged 40% in just three days after briefly reaching $121.  The Key Conditions For BTC’s Next Recovery Data from spot markets suggest that selling pressure was structural rather than isolated. The Coinbase premium remained in negative territory throughout the decline, a pattern that has persisted since December and signals sustained selling by US investors.  Wintermute said its internal over‑the‑counter (OTC) flow data confirmed that US counterparties were heavy sellers throughout the week, a trend that was reinforced by ongoing ETF redemptions. Institutional demand, which had supported prices earlier in the cycle, has largely faded. Since November, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $6.2 billion in cumulative net outflows, representing the longest continuous stretch of redemptions since these products launched.  Wintermute explained that when ETF sponsors are forced to sell spot Bitcoin into falling markets, it creates a negative feedback loop that amplifies downside pressure.  The firm also highlighted growing fragility in derivatives markets. IBIT and Deribit together now account for half of the crypto options market. Wintermute said the sharp sell‑off reflected investor complacency after periods of low volatility and sideways trading, which left positioning vulnerable once prices began to move. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Beyond crypto‑specific factors, Wintermute argued that the broader investment landscape has been dominated by artificial intelligence. The firm pointed to a viral chart showing Bitcoin’s performance closely mirroring software stocks in the S&P 500.  According to Wintermute, the more important takeaway is that AI has been absorbing a disproportionate share of global capital, often at the expense of other asset classes, including crypto. Looking ahead, Wintermute expects a period of uneven and volatile price discovery. The firm said it is difficult to envision a sustained rally unless several conditions align: the Coinbase premium turning positive, ETF flows reversing back into inflows, and basis rates in derivatives markets stabilizing.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices since last October, analysts at Bernstein argue that the current downturn does not resemble a traditional crypto bear market.  In a note to clients released on Monday, the firm described the pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” even as the asset has fallen about 44% from its all‑time highs in current trading. Bernstein Defends Bitcoin’s Fundamentals The analysis was led by Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, who said the recent sell‑off reflects a loss of confidence rather than deeper structural problems.  The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact and that the decline should not be mistaken for a systemic breakdown. Bernstein reaffirmed its long‑term outlook, maintaining a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bernstein noted that many of the “red flags” that have historically preceded major Bitcoin crashes are missing this time. The analyst asserts that there have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the crypto ecosystem.  Instead, the firm sees a market weighed down by negative sentiment, even as broader conditions appear unusually favorable. The analysts pointed to what they described as strong institutional support for Bitcoin.  This includes a pro‑Bitcoin US president, the continued expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), growing adoption by corporate treasuries, and sustained interest from large asset managers.  In Bernstein’s view, these factors clearly distinguish the current cycle from past downturns that were driven by excess risk and fragile market structures. Holders And Miners Can Weather Long Downturn The firm also addressed shifting narratives around technology trends. Bernstein noted that some investors now argue Bitcoin has become irrelevant as global attention turns toward artificial intelligence (AI).  The analysts dismissed that view, saying it reflects changing investor focus rather than a genuine threat to Bitcoin’s role. They added that fears around quantum computing have similarly been overstated, pointing out that such risks would affect all critical digital systems, not just Bitcoin. The firm further downplayed fears of forced selling driven by corporate treasuries or miner capitulation. Bernstein said major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to withstand prolonged downturns.  Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Referencing comments from Strategy’s recent earnings call, the analysts noted that only an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years—would trigger a need for restructuring. Miners, they added, are also better positioned than in past cycles. Many have diversified their revenue by reallocating power resources toward AI data center demand, reducing reliance on Bitcoin mining alone and easing pressure from production costs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,627, having recorded losses of 20% and 22% over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle.  Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov  According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026.  What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its sharp sell‑off on Thursday, briefly falling below the $67,000 level and marking its lowest price since November 2024.  The renewed pressure follows commentary from market analyst Hugo Crypto, who pointed to a recent report from investment bank Stifel outlining a notably bearish outlook for Bitcoin.  Deeper Bitcoin Drawdown Ahead? According to Stifel’s analysis, the leading cryptocurrency could continue declining toward $38,000. If reached, that target would represent an additional drop of roughly 43% from current levels and would place Bitcoin back at prices last seen in January 2024. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Stifel’s forecast is built on several macro and market‑specific factors. The firm cited the impact of tighter US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, ongoing uncertainty and stagnation around US crypto regulation, shrinking market liquidity, and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs).  The bank also framed its outlook within the context of historical Bitcoin market cycles. According to Stifel, Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025 fits a familiar pattern seen in prior cycles, which have typically been followed by extended and deep drawdowns.  Additional warnings were echoed by market observer Walter Bloomberg, who highlighted weakening demand, a sharp slowdown in ETF inflows, and growing stress in derivatives markets.  Futures markets, in particular, appear to be entering what he describes as a “forced deleveraging” phase, where leveraged positions are unwound rapidly, adding to selling pressure. BTC Faces Key Technical Test ETF data from Thursday further illustrates the strain on market sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have so far recorded net outflows of approximately 7,925 BTC on the day, equivalent to about $533 million.  Over the past seven days, net outflows have totaled roughly 19,090 BTC, or around $1.28 billion, reinforcing concerns that institutional demand is fading rather than providing support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash To $72,000 Signals Major Reset: On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate From a technical perspective, analyst MartyParty highlighted the importance of the $68,000 level, which Bitcoin would need to reclaim to stabilize in the near term. This area aligns with the 200‑week exponential moving average, a level often viewed as critical during major market corrections.  Failure to hold above that zone could open the door to a move toward the 200‑week simple moving average, currently near $58,000, according to technical analysts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $67,100, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 20% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn.  The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins.  Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market.  Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market.  With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases.  Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness.  Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction.  Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds.  Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off.  He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months.  He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build  Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday.  The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated.  They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum.  While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart.  If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully.  A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range.  Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact.  If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

While gold has posted major gains, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show major signs of weakness, with prices drifting toward lower support levels and now approaching the closely watched $82,000 mark, a pivotal point in determining the next major direction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Against this backdrop, market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn attention to what he describes as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: the Gold‑to‑Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio.  What The Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio Suggests According to Profit, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for major market tops and bottoms. He noted that he first shared this framework nearly a year ago, highlighting a historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold, and bottom when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Toward $85,000 Despite Progress On US Crypto Market Structure Bill Profit pointed out that this relationship played out during the previous cycle, accurately marking Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. He argues that the same pattern has repeated in the current cycle, claiming Bitcoin’s recent top near $125,000 when the gold‑to‑Bitcoin ratio once again reached the 0.02 level. The key question now, he says, is whether the market will again reach the 0.11 BTC‑per‑ounce level that has historically signaled a bottom. Based on current prices, Profit walked through the math.  Assuming a gold price of roughly $5,500 per ounce, dividing that figure by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin price near $50,000. That outcome, he noted, aligns with his broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low could fall somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000. He added that even under a more bullish scenario for gold, the analysis still supports his thesis. If gold were to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the same ratio would imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In his view, both scenarios reinforce the idea that gold is likely to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. BTC Nearing Late‑Cycle Bear Phase? Not all analysts, however, share that bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst Michael van de Poppe suggested that gold’s recent strength could be nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin.  Van de Poppe highlighted the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin measured against gold on the weekly timeframe, noting that it has reached the lowest level ever recorded.  In his assessment, this suggests a sharp imbalance in valuations, with one asset appearing overextended in the short term and the other deeply undervalued. He described the situation as part of what he calls the “big rotation” phase of the market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns The analyst also pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score indicator, a metric used to assess whether the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility.  According to van de Poppe, the current Z‑Score for Bitcoin is lower than it was at several major historical bottoms, including those seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID‑19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low. In his view, this signals that BTC is already deep into a bear‑market phase and may be approaching its final stages.  At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $83,435, with losses of 2.2% and 7% recorded in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Thursday, extending the downward trend seen throughout the week and briefly falling below the closely watched $85,000 level, despite progress on long-awaited US crypto legislation failing to lift market sentiment. Crypto Prices Fall Despite Regulatory Progress The decline came on the same day the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the proposed crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act. While the committee’s action was widely viewed as a positive development for the digital asset industry, it did little to support prices in the short term. Related Reading: White House To Host Crypto And Banking Leaders In Push To Break Regulatory Deadlock Instead of triggering a rally, the news coincided with a sharp market sell‑off. Bitcoin dropped by roughly $2,700 in a short period, setting off a wave of liquidations that erased an estimated $356 million in long positions. Data from Coinglass further shows that total liquidations across the crypto market reached about $803 million over the past 24 hours, including roughly $693 million in long liquidations and $109 million in short liquidations. Bitcoin Hovers Near Breakdown Levels  As earlier reported by Bitcoinist, the CLARITY Act cleared an important procedural hurdle earlier on Thursday when the Senate Agriculture Committee approved its section of the bill during a scheduled markup. The legislation aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. With the Agriculture Committee’s approval secured, lawmakers must merge the provisions that expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) role with parallel sections overseen by the Senate Banking Committee, which address the Securities and Exchange Commission’s jurisdiction.  At the same time, legislators will need to determine whether bipartisan backing can still be achieved for a measure that could significantly reshape crypto regulation in the US.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns From a technical perspective, market analyst Rekt Capital said that in the near term, Bitcoin needs to prevent the former range low around $86,000 from turning into resistance on lower time frames. He added that a weekly close above that level would be necessary to avoid a deeper breakdown. According to his analysis, a decisive break below the roughly $86,000 area could open the door to another test of the macro triangle bottom near $82,500. A further drop below that level, he cautioned, would signal an acceleration of bearish momentum. As of now, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has only briefly recovered to $85,135. However, it is still far from reaching the critical level outlined by the analyst. Therefore, Friday’s price action will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns.  In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is spreading beyond short‑term traders and gradually affecting longer‑term holders. In previous market cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator started trending upward well before prices reached their eventual lows.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs During those periods, Bitcoin prices continued to decline even after the metric turned higher, with true market bottoms forming only once supply in loss expanded much further and broader capitulation set in. At present, CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s supply in loss remains well below levels typically associated with full market capitulation. However, the change in direction itself is significant.  The analysts say it suggests the market may be shifting into a bearish structural phase, rather than experiencing a brief correction within an ongoing bull market. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to reflect that uncertainty. The asset is currently trading around $89,700 and has struggled to reclaim the key $90,000 level as support.  This follows a steady decline from earlier yearly-highs near $98,000, where upward momentum faded as buying pressure weakened and gains recorded at the start of the year were fully erased. US Dollar Tests Historic Zone For Bitcoin Rallies Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts believe the outlook is entirely negative. Analysts at Bull Theory have highlighted a potentially bullish catalyst that could emerge in the months ahead, centered on movements in the US dollar.  In a recent post on social media platform X (previously Twitter) the firm pointed out that the US Dollar Index is testing the same zone that preceded major Bitcoin bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. According to their analysis, the Dollar Index has broken below a long‑term trendline that has held for roughly 16 years and is now hovering around the critical level of 96. Historically, periods when the DXY fell below 96 and remained there coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies.  Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis As seen in the chart below, in mid‑2017, the index dropped under that level, after which Bitcoin surged nearly eightfold over the following five to six months. A similar pattern played out during the 2020 pandemic era.  When a wave of liquidity entered financial markets at the time, the DXY again slipped below 96, and Bitcoin went on to rise roughly seven times over the next seven to eight months. During that same period, Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins posted gains of tenfold or more. For now, the market sits at a crossroads. On‑chain data points to early bear‑market dynamics, while macro signals linked to the US dollar offer a counter‑narrative that could favor renewed strength.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market’s largest cryptocurrency. Rate Cut Odds Fade The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Economists surveyed by financial data provider FactSet anticipate the federal funds rate — the benchmark rate banks use for overnight lending — will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.  Such a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: XRP Outlook For 2026: AI Model Signals New Record Ahead — Can Price Reach $6? Despite that earlier momentum, the Bitcoin price has struggled to maintain its footing. Ahead of the FOMC decision, the cryptocurrency is trading near $87,780, roughly 30% below the all‑time highs reached last year.  Market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to Bitcoin’s historical behavior around FOMC meetings as a reason for caution. In a recent post on X (previously Twitter) Martinez highlighted that expectations for a January rate cut are extremely low, estimated at just 2.8%, signaling that meaningful policy easing is unlikely in the near term.  That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed’s policy meetings.  Of the eight FOMC decisions held during the year, seven were followed by notable declines for the Bitcoin price. The January meeting was followed by a 27% drop, March saw a 14% decline, June was down 8%, July slipped 6%, September fell 7%, October recorded a 29% pullback, and December ended with a 9% loss.  The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision.  Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision Zone From a technical and on‑chain perspective, analyst BitBull also sees the Bitcoin price approaching a critical moment. BitBull noted on social media that the asset has entered what she describes as a key on‑chain decision zone.  At current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven.  Related Reading: Tether Reveals Massive Gold Accumulation In Q4: Adds 27 Tons To Reserves BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater.  As a result, any upward move toward that zone could face selling pressure as traders look to exit at reduced losses. On the downside, the True Market Mean at around $80,700 has historically marked the boundary between a “routine correction and deeper structural weakness.”  Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests that long‑term holders remain firmly in profit and largely unshaken by recent volatility. BitBull argues if the Bitcoin price can maintain support above the $87,500 level, it would indicate that active capital is defending its position and that broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level, however, could open the door for a move toward $80,700. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the significant $90,000 mark once again, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter). Is $37,000 On The Horizon?   Neuner highlighted that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the crypto market still struggles to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin? Related Reading: Ethereum Poised For $4,000 Breakout? Expert Pinpoints On-Chain Triggers For Potential Rally Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each Halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have reached its peak around early October, where it briefly touched $125,000.  Historical trends show that following these peaks, Bitcoin typically endures a substantial decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downturn to around $37,000 in the event of a full bear market. Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performances in both stocks and commodities, market corrections are to be expected.  During risk-off periods in equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, contributing to building pressure toward the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin might be around the $57,000 mark, where the 200-week moving average (MA) resides. Critical Bitcoin Support Levels To Watch The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 threshold are linked to heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.  Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downtrend has been spurred by various macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies that have added to market instability.  Related Reading: Is A New XRP Price Record Imminent? Analyst Forecast Colossal Short Squeeze Ahead Consequently, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which recently reached a record price exceeding $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underappreciated.  Demand for downside protection in Bitcoin’s options market is also rising, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines. The next significant levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term, according to Bloomberg, lie between $84,000 and $85,000, which are expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to hold these levels, fears of a deep bear market may become more pronounced. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a notable surge, approaching its nearest resistance level at $94,000, a barrier that has thus far hindered the cryptocurrency’s return to significant milestones, including the coveted $100,000 mark. Despite this, experts remain optimistic about new all-time highs for Bitcoin within the year. Potential Bitcoin Return To $100,000 Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, commented on the recent price movements, suggesting that the uptick is more likely a reflexive response from investors who are rebalancing their portfolios after last year’s heavy sell-off, rather than an indication of a fundamental trend shift.  “The bounce in Bitcoin we’re seeing this week is most likely a reflexive move by investors rather than something indicative of a major shift in trend,” Puckrin explained. Related Reading: New Hope For Crypto: Senators Introduce Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act Currently, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum after rejecting the $94,700 resistance level. Puckrin warns that a failure to break through this barrier could lead to another decline in value. However, if BTC does breach this resistance, he believes a return to the $100,000 level may be achievable.  Looking further ahead, Puckrin anticipates another all-time high in 2026, although he advises caution regarding the extent of that potential rise. “In the longer term, I expect to see another all-time high this year, but it won’t be as dramatic as some are predicting, and the possibility of a reversal into bear territory remains very real,” he added. Key Resistance Level Contrasting this optimism, some analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin’s immediate prospects. Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of First Information, maintains a bearish outlook, arguing that the risk-reward ratio at current prices is unappealing.  Stanzione evaluates Bitcoin against gold rather than the dollar, asserting that Bitcoin has considerable ground to cover. “I was negative on Bitcoin throughout 2025, and I’m sticking with that view in 2026,” he noted.  He pointed out that while the market’s leading cryptocurrency experienced a decline of about 6% by the end of 2025, gold surged by 66%, resulting in a significant disparity in performance. Related Reading: Coinbase Mulls Exiting Support For Crypto Market Structure Bill Ahead Of January 15 Deadline Stanzione believes gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin this year, predicting that the digital asset will close the year at a lower price. “There are no compelling reasons to buy Bitcoin at the current $92,000 level,” he stated.  Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial price level for Bitcoin in the short term, stating on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that $94,555 is the “bullish trigger” for the cryptocurrency.  Should Bitcoin break through this level, Martinez indicated that the next target could be $105,291, representing a potential 12% increase. This move would significantly narrow the gap to the all-time high of over $126,000 reached last October. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

After a robust start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered significant resistance that has hindered its recovery trajectory, resulting in a brief dip below the $90,000 mark over the last few days. As analysts evaluate the situation, they have identified crucial levels that will influence Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. Critical Bitcoin Price Levels In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Ted Pillows outlined three critical price points for Bitcoin in the short-term price action. The first key level to monitor is $89,200, which has served as a vital support.  Should the Bitcoin price fall below this threshold, Ted Pillows predicts a subsequent drop toward the $87,500 level. But beyond this, Pillows cautioned that if the $87,500 support is lost on a daily basis, it could signal a significant downward trend for the cryptocurrency’s price in the near-term. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report On the upside, the analyst suggested that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $94,000 to $95,000 range to establish a positive momentum. Notably, a daily close above this level could pave the way for BTC to reach between $102,000 and $103,000.  Similarly, fellow analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the importance of the cryptocurrency’s price in maintaining its position above $87,200 to avoid a potential decline toward $69,230, which implies a potential 24% drop if this scenario materializes.  Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a slight uptick, reaching $91,390 at the time of writing, partly due to the US Supreme Court’s decision to delay a ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs case, an event anticipated to bring volatility to the cryptocurrency market. Bitfinex Whales’ Moves  Beyond technical analysis, there is a developing trend that many have overlooked. Bitfinex whales are apparently unwinding their BTC long holdings aggressively. Analysts such as Ash Crypto point out that this type of “unwind” has traditionally preceded significant market turbulence.  During a similar event in early 2025, the Bitcoin price stalled around the $74,000 level but subsequently experienced a major recovery rally of approximately 50%, surging to the $112,000 mark within just 43 days. Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils Ash noted that this could suggest that a similar pattern could unfold potentially this month, targeting price levels of $135,000 or more in the near term, which could result in a new all-time high for the market’s leading cryptocurrency.  According to analysts, Bitfinex whales successfully relieve market pressure brought on by sizable clusters of long holdings when they “clear the books.” By lowering the market’s targets, price-hunting algorithms can more easily change the direction upward. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050.  The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy.  Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions. The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability. Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case.  ‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’ In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR.  Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide. Related Reading: GENIUS Act Key Provisions In Spotlight: XRP Attorney Deaton Alerts To Bankers’ Role For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR.  In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Monday, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $93,000 mark, spurred by a wave of renewed optimism that has also revitalized altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), all of which are experiencing recoveries not seen in nearly a month.  According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has recorded a weekly surge of 7%, while Ethereum and Solana have outperformed the leading cryptocurrency with increases of nearly 9% during the same period. Notably, XRP has taken the lead, boasting a significant 15% uptrend. Large Holders Drive Bitcoin Surge A key driver behind this recent surge, especially for Bitcoin, can be attributed to large holders, or “whales,” who have acquired approximately 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, amounting to roughly $23 billion.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Price On The Brink Of A 9,000% Rally To $10? What Historical Performance Shows Market analyst NoLimit highlighted this crucial development in a recent social media post, noting its significance: this accumulation represents 1.3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and marks the largest net buy from this group in 13 years. However, NoLimit asserts that this doesn’t imply that Bitcoin will see an immediate surge in its value. It indicates that long-term investors are aggressively positioning themselves even while the broader market sentiment remains mixed. Will BTC Establish A Macro Lower High? In the short term, though, market analyst Rekt Capital warns that despite Bitcoin hovering just above $93,400, it has closed its 12-month candle below the $93,500 mark. This suggests that the $93,500 level is likely to act as resistance moving forward.  Historical patterns across four-year cycles indicate that such resistances can hinder price movement for an extended period, often resisting for up to three years before being breached in the next Halving year. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows Should Bitcoin indeed be in the early stages of a bear market, this could imply that prices might surpass the $93,500 resistance in the coming months only to establish a macro lower high before continuing their downward trajectory.  According to Rekt Capital, the sustainable breakout above this resistance is more likely to occur in the next halving year in 2028. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com