Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 mark, reflecting a market that has failed to recover bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. Repeated attempts to reclaim higher levels have stalled, reinforcing growing skepticism among analysts who now openly discuss the risk of a broader bear market extending into 2026. Sentiment remains fragile, dominated by caution and reduced risk appetite, as traders wait for clearer confirmation of the next directional move. Related Reading: XRP Selling Pressure Returns: Investors Shift From Holding to Distribution Still, not everyone is convinced the bullish cycle is over. Some investors argue that Bitcoin is entering a transitional phase rather than a full trend reversal. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, the current setup in Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” metric offers important context. Adler highlights that Supply in Profit has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.5 million BTC following the correction from all-time highs. This decline pushed the short-term 30-day moving average well below the 90-day average, creating a gap of around 1.75 million BTC. While a similar configuration appeared in 2022 before an extended bearish period, Adler notes a key difference this time: the 365-day moving average remains historically elevated. Importantly, the 30-day average appears to have formed a local bottom in mid-December and is beginning to stabilize. Adler argues that if Bitcoin can hold current price levels or higher, this stabilization could mark the early groundwork for a renewed bullish phase later in 2026. Supply in Profit Signals a Critical Inflection Window Axel Adler also shared a forward-looking forecast chart tracking the convergence between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric, offering a potential roadmap for the next structural shift. The model extrapolates current rates of change to estimate when a bullish configuration—defined by SMA 30 crossing above SMA 90—could emerge. According to Adler’s analysis, the gap between these two moving averages is currently narrowing at a pace of roughly 28,000 BTC per day. Importantly, this convergence is not being driven by a sharp recovery in Supply in Profit, but by a mechanical decline in the SMA 90. As peak October values, when Supply in Profit reached 19–20 million BTC, roll out of the 90-day calculation window, downward pressure on the longer average creates a temporary “tailwind” for convergence. This effect is expected to persist through late January. If current conditions hold, Adler projects a potential bullish cross forming between late February and early March. However, the forecast remains highly price-sensitive. Supply elasticity to price is estimated at 1.3x, meaning a 10% price decline could trigger a 13% drop in Supply in Profit. The $70,000 level is critical according to the forecast. Below it, SMA 30 would likely fall faster than SMA 90, invalidating the convergence thesis and reopening a 2022-style prolonged recovery scenario. Related Reading: Chainlink Shows Strong Accumulation Signal: LINK Exchange Liquidity Dries Up Bitcoin Price Struggles Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 threshold, reflecting a market that remains structurally weak despite short-term stabilization. The chart shows BTC consolidating after a sharp breakdown from the $100,000–$105,000 region, a move that decisively flipped prior support into resistance. This rejection marked a clear loss of bullish control and initiated a deeper corrective phase. Price now compresses below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages.. This configuration reinforces the prevailing bearish trend and suggests that upside attempts are likely to face supply pressure. The 200-day moving average, currently well above spot price, highlights how far BTC has drifted from its longer-term trend equilibrium. Related Reading: Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level Momentum has cooled notably since the November sell-off. While selling intensity has eased, the absence of strong bullish volume indicates that buyers remain cautious. The recent price action resembles a consolidation range rather than a reversal, with BTC oscillating between roughly $85,000 and $90,000. This behavior often reflects indecision rather than accumulation. For now, $90,000 remains the critical level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment meaningfully. Failure to do so keeps downside risks in play, with $85,000 acting as near-term support. Until price regains key moving averages, the broader structure favors continued range-bound or corrective price action. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength, reclaiming the $115,000 level after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. Bulls are attempting to build momentum for a potential impulse move higher, aiming to confirm a sustained bullish structure after the recent consolidation phase. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Drives $500M Liquidity Flow Into ConcreteXYZ & Stable Vaults – Details On-chain data continues to reveal a clear and repeating pattern tied to investor behavior and market cycles. Historically, when the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 95%, the market tends to enter an overheated phase, often leading to sharp corrections. These pullbacks serve as natural cooling periods, resetting sentiment and liquidity before the next major leg up. Interestingly, each correction cycle has shown consistent bottoming zones around the 75% threshold, where long-term holders reaccumulate and market confidence begins to rebuild. More specifically, data highlights profit supply lows of 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and a recent rebound from 81%, signaling a potential mid-cycle recovery phase. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 83.6% — Momentum Rebuilds Ahead of Key Threshold According to top analyst Darkfost, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has started to climb again, currently standing at 83.6%. This steady rise indicates that a growing share of Bitcoin holders are once again sitting on unrealized gains — a trend that often reflects improving sentiment and renewed market confidence. Darkfost notes that this level can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are willing to hold their BTC instead of realizing profits, anticipating further upside in the near term. Historically, such behavior has been characteristic of mid-cycle recovery phases, when fear starts to fade and accumulation resumes across both retail and institutional segments. This stage of the cycle is considered healthy for rebuilding momentum, as it allows the market to stabilize after large corrections. Holders who previously capitulated often reenter at this stage, while long-term participants strengthen their positions, creating a more resilient market structure. However, Darkfost cautions that once the supply in profit surpasses 95%, it typically signals overheated market conditions — a point where euphoria tends to replace rational conviction. In such phases, Bitcoin historically faces increased volatility and sharp corrections as overleveraged traders and short-term speculators take profits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Accumulation Before Next Growth Wave BTC Retests $115K Resistance: Bulls Regain Momentum Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum, trading around $115,443 and successfully reclaiming key short-term support levels after weeks of consolidation. The daily chart highlights a strong recovery structure, with BTC breaking above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment. The next critical test lies at $117,500, a historical resistance zone that previously rejected multiple attempts in September and early October. A clear breakout and daily close above this level would likely confirm an impulse continuation toward $120K–$125K, opening the door for a more sustained uptrend. Related Reading: Chris Larsen Cashes Out: $764M In XRP Profits Since 2018 Momentum indicators suggest strengthening buying pressure, while the recent bounce from the 200-day moving average near $107K underscores the market’s resilience. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally, aligning with the broader pattern of accumulation seen on-chain, where investor profitability is rising steadily. However, BTC remains within a range-bound structure, and rejection at $117.5K could trigger short-term consolidation back toward $111K–$112K. Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook appears constructive — if the bulls can sustain above $115K and confirm strength above $117.5K, the market could transition into a new bullish leg, supported by improving investor sentiment and on-chain health. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the latest Bitcoin selloff is different from the LUNA and FTX crashes of 2022. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Trend Is Structurally Different For The Latest Crash In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed how the recent bearish action in BTC compares against some of the past crashes. The analytics firm has used the Percent Supply in Profit to make the comparison. This on-chain indicator measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total Bitcoin circulating supply that’s sitting on some net unrealized gain right now. Related Reading: BNB Shoots Up 6%: Is This Just The Start Of A Run To $2,400? The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to see what price it was last transferred or sold at. If this previous transaction price was less than the latest spot price for any token, then it may be considered to be currently sitting on some profit. The Percent Supply in Profit adds up all coins of this type and determines what percentage of the supply they make up. Another indicator called the Percent Supply in Loss tracks the tokens of the opposite type. If one of these indicators is known, the other can simply be calculated by subtracting it from 100, since the total BTC supply must add up to 100%. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit hit the 100% mark earlier in the month when the cryptocurrency’s price set its new all-time high (ATH). When the sharp selloff at the end of last week started, the indicator’s value was still well over the 90% mark, meaning the vast majority of investors were in the green. As such, the crash was more profit-driven, with losses mostly coming from the top buyers. During some of the big crashes of the 2022 bear market, however, the market conditions were quite different. In the LUNA and FTX collapses, the Percent Supply in Profit sat under 65%. In the chart, Glassnode has also highlighted the data of another metric: the Net Realized Profit/Loss, measuring whether profit-taking or loss-taking is dominant on the BTC network. From this indicator, it’s apparent that the aforementioned crashes saw deep negative values, implying a broad capitulation event took place. Related Reading: Bitcoin Direction Still Unclear: Analyst Says Watch These Key Charts The 3AC collapse occurred alongside a higher Percent Supply in Profit, but it also witnessed a notable spike in loss-taking. Based on this, Glassnode concludes that the latest Bitcoin crash was “a structurally different, leverage-driven event.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,400, down more than 11% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a narrow range, trading below the $115,000 level while holding key support above $110,000. This consolidation reflects the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, as volatility continues to push the market in both directions. Despite the temporary stability, recent price action shows that selling pressure has gained a slight edge, leaving traders cautious about the next major move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Plunges To Lowest Since 2018: Strong Sell Signal Flashes Top analyst Darkfost has highlighted an important on-chain development that adds context to this phase. According to his data, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has now reached a historically critical threshold. This metric, which tracks how much of the circulating supply is currently above its cost basis, has long been a key guidepost for identifying major phases of the cycle. While a large share of supply in profit is not inherently bearish, history shows that such levels often coincide with pivotal turning points in Bitcoin’s market structure. With BTC consolidating in this crucial zone and profit supply peaking, the market stands at a delicate moment. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim momentum above $115K or faces a deeper correction may depend on how investors react to this latest signal. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Reaches Critical Cycle Zone According to top analyst Darkfost, the current level of Bitcoin supply in profit carries far more nuance than many assume. While some investors interpret a large share of coins in profit as a bearish warning, Darkfost emphasizes that it is, in fact, a necessary component of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. Contrary to what many might think, he explains, “a high percentage of supply in profit is what fuels the euphoric waves that drive the market forward.” Looking at history, the long-term average of supply in profit sits at roughly 75%, defined by a bell curve of Bitcoin’s performance since inception. In other words, across cycles, three-quarters of supply tends to sit in profit at any given time. When this ratio climbs above 90%, it usually signals a period of strong bullish momentum — the kind often seen in major bull markets. Such elevated levels create the psychological backdrop for rallies to extend, as confidence builds and capital flows into the market. However, Darkfost also warns that this metric can signal turning points. Once the percentage of supply in profit drops back below 90%, the market often transitions into corrective phases. These can be short-lived pullbacks or prolonged downturns, but historically, the break beneath that line has marked the shift away from euphoria. Bitcoin’s position near this threshold highlights the stakes. If supply in profit remains elevated, the market could continue its upward march. If not, the risk of a deeper correction grows, reinforcing the importance of this metric as a cycle-defining indicator. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Compression Signals Pause – Market Digests Recent Volatility Bulls Struggle To Regain Momentum After Pullback Bitcoin is trading near $112,900 after a rebound from lows around $110,800, yet the chart shows that momentum remains fragile. Following the rejection at $123,000 earlier this month, BTC entered a corrective phase, slipping below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which now act as resistance near $115,700–$116,600. This area stands out as the immediate barrier for bulls to reclaim if they want to shift the trend back in their favor. The 200-day moving average at $111,600 is currently providing a layer of support, helping BTC stabilize after recent volatility. Holding this zone will be crucial in preventing a deeper retrace toward the $108,000 region. If buyers can defend this level while building momentum, the market could stage a relief rally back toward the mid-$115K range. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Aligns With Critical Indicator: Support Builds Around $100K Level However, failure to reclaim the moving averages would leave BTC vulnerable to extended downside pressure. The inability to hold above $115K has already signaled fading strength, and without a decisive breakout, sellers could regain control. For now, Bitcoin sits in a consolidation phase, caught between critical support and resistance, with the next move likely to determine whether the market stabilizes or slides further. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Profit is yet to drop under this key level during the current cycle, a sign that could be optimistic for BTC. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Has Remained Above 70% So Far In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the the recent trend in the Supply in Profit for Bitcoin. The “Supply in Profit” is an indicator that keeps track of the percentage of the total BTC supply in circulation that’s being held at a net unrealized profit. The metric works by looking at the transaction history of each coin in the circulating supply to see what price it was last moved at. The previous transaction of any token is likely to represent the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at that time would denote its current cost basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Positioning Aggressively On Binance, Data Shows Naturally, if this acquisition level for a given coin is under the latest spot price, then that particular coin would be considered to be holding some net gain. The Supply in Profit adds up all tokens satisfying this condition and determines what part of the supply they make up for. Another indicator called the Supply in Loss deals with the tokens of the opposite type. This indicator’s value can also be found by subtracting the Supply in Profit from 100, since both of the metrics must add up to 100%. Now, here is the chart for the Bitcoin Supply in Profit shared by the quant that shows the trend in its value for the last several years: The value of the metric appears to have been on the rise in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit hit the 100% mark earlier as the cryptocurrency’s price explored new all-time highs (ATHs). With the drawdown that has occurred during the last few months, however, the indicator has plunged. In the chart, the quant has highlighted two lines that could prove to be of relevance to the asset. The bottom one (shaded in orange) corresponds to a value of 70%. It would appear that during the last cycle, losing this level meant the start of a bear market for BTC. So far in the current cycle, Bitcoin is yet to see a drop below it. The closest it came was during last year’s consolidation phase. A level that the asset has dropped under a few times already this cycle is the 80% one, colored in yellow. Related Reading: Behind The Mantra (OM) Collapse: Glassnode Reveals The On-Chain Side Of Things The recent correction also took the Supply in Profit below it, but the recovery rally has meant that it’s close to retesting the line again. During both the previous and current cycles, the initial break above the line signaled the start of the bull market for the coin. Based on the pattern, the analyst has noted, “next target is to push the supply in profit back to 80% to signal strong bullish momentum.” BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced some of its recent recovery during the past day as its price has slipped back down to $83,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is on the verge of a historic breakout, consolidating just below the highly anticipated $100K mark. After surging over 8% since the start of the year, the leading cryptocurrency has captured the attention of investors and analysts alike. While the market remains cautiously optimistic, all eyes are on BTC for confirmation of its next […]
Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 for the past two weeks, holding strong as the broader crypto market bulges. This steady performance is fueling optimism among traders and investors alike. According to key data from CryptoQuant, short-term holders are now selling for profit, leading to a notable decrease in BTC supply. This reduction in available BTC […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin supply in profit has plunged following the latest crash in the asset’s price towards the $65,000 level. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Is Now Down To Around 90% As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, around 10% of the BTC supply is now in a state of loss. The on-chain indicator of interest here is the “Percent Supply in Profit,” which tracks the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply holding an unrealized gain. This metric works by going through the blockchain history of each coin in circulation to see the price at which it was last transferred. Assuming that this previous transaction involved a change of hands, the price at its moment would serve as the cost basis for the coin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Spread “Buy The Dip” As Bitcoin Plunges Below $66,000 The coins with a cost basis that is less than the current spot price of the cryptocurrency would naturally be considered to be holding a profit, and as such, they would be counted under the supply in profit. The Percent Supply in Profit adds up all such coins and calculates what part of the total supply they make up for. The opposite metric, the Percent Supply in Loss, adds up the coins not satisfying this condition. Since the total circulating supply must add up to 100%, the Percent Supply in Loss can be deduced from the Percent Supply in Profit by subtracting its value from 100. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Percent Supply in Profit for Bitcoin over the last few months: Looks like the value of the metric has taken a plunge in recent days | Source: @jvs_btc on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit has seen a sharp drop recently as the cryptocurrency price has gone through a significant drawdown. The indicator’s value has dropped to around the 90% mark, which means that about 10% of the supply is currently carrying a loss. The chart shows that the last time the metric touched these levels was back on 22 March. Interestingly, the asset also found its bottom around then. Earlier, the Percent Supply In Profit had pushed towards the 100% mark, which was a natural consequence of the price setting a new all-time high (ATH), since at fresh highs, all of the supply must be out of the red. Generally, the investors in profit are more likely to sell their coins, so if many come into gains, the possibility of a mass selloff rises. Due to this reason, high levels of the Percent Supply In Profit have often led to tops. Related Reading: Start Selling Bitcoin When This Happens, This Quant Says Similarly, bottoms become more likely when investor profitability levels drop relatively low. The current value of 90% is still quite high, but this isn’t unusual during bull runs, as there is strong demand and ATHs are being explored. The fact that the profitability has cooled off compared to earlier levels may be constructive for the rally’s chances to see a continuation, just like it did last month. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin has been trading at around the $65,700 level, down more than 5% over the past week. The price of the asset seems to have been tumbling down over the past couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com