Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $90,000 level after a sharp rejection from the $94,000 resistance zone, keeping market sentiment sharply divided. While some analysts argue that BTC is entering a deeper corrective phase, others believe the pullback is a necessary reset before a renewed upside attempt. The current price action reflects this uncertainty, with volatility rising as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance While $4.7B In Sell-Side Liquidity Builds According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s short-term risk structure remains fragile. His short-term risk chart places BTC below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently estimated near $100,200. Price is also trading beneath all major moving averages, including the 128-day, 200-day, and 365-day SMAs, reinforcing the view that the broader structure is still bearish. At current levels around $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a moderate risk zone, positioned between the STH Cost Basis and the -15% downside boundary. This positioning suggests that recent rebounds should be treated cautiously. Until BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis, upside moves are more likely to represent technical bounces within a downward trend rather than a confirmed reversal. Conversely, a breakdown below the moderate risk boundary would signal rising downside risk and could accelerate selling pressure. As a result, the $90K–$100K range remains a critical battleground for Bitcoin’s next directional move. STH Losses Continue To Cap Bitcoin’s Upside Adler’s analysis also highlights a second critical framework: the chart tracking Bitcoin’s all-time highs alongside euphoria zones and the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator. This metric measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average realized price of coins held by short-term investors, offering a direct view into the profitability—and behavior—of this highly reactive cohort. At present, STH MVRV sits near 0.92, well below its historical mean of roughly 1.09 and decisively under the neutral level of 1.0. In practical terms, this implies that the average short-term holder is holding an unrealized loss of about 8%. Historically, periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have tended to coincide with either capitulation phases or extended consolidation ranges, rather than sustained bullish expansions. The last clear euphoria zone on this chart appeared during the all-time high update in October 2025, underscoring how far current conditions are from a speculative extreme. As long as STH MVRV remains below breakeven, short-term holders are incentivized to sell into rallies as the price approaches their cost basis. This behavior creates persistent overhead supply and reinforces structural resistance near the STH Cost Basis, close to the $100,000 level. Consequently, reclaiming that zone is not just a psychological milestone but a necessary condition for any meaningful regime shift back to a bullish market structure. Related Reading: XRP Sees Back-to-Back Liquidation Waves: Binance Absorbs Majority Of Liquidations Bitcoin Price Recovery Lacks Confirmation Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects a market still trapped in a fragile recovery attempt after a sharp rejection from higher levels. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 area, BTC experienced a decisive sell-off that pushed the price back toward the $85,000 zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This reaction marked a short-term bottom, but the subsequent rebound has so far lacked structural strength. At present, Bitcoin is trading near the $90,000–$91,000 region, a former support that has now turned into a key pivot. Price remains below the 200-day and 365-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The 128-day moving average has also capped recent upside attempts, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains corrective rather than impulsively bullish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Accumulation Regime: Market Supported By Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Surge From a structure standpoint, the chart shows a sequence of lower highs since the October peak, suggesting that sellers continue to control the macro trend. Volume expanded notably during the November–December sell-off, while the current bounce is unfolding on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies that the move higher may be more short-covering driven than supported by strong spot demand. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the $94,000–$95,000 resistance zone with increasing volume, the risk of another rejection remains elevated. Failure to do so could reopen the path toward the $85,000 support, where the market would once again be forced to prove its underlying strength. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has faced another retrace in the past day that has brought its price to the short-term holder cost basis, a level that has acted as support thus far. Bitcoin Is Making Yet Another Retest Of The STH Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin could be at the fourth step of the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price cycle. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that measures the average cost basis of the investors on the BTC network. When the value of this metric is greater than the spot price, it means the overall market is carrying a net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being below BTC’s value suggests the average holder is in the green. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Unlike LUNA & FTX Collapses, Says Glassnode: Here’s Why In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific segment of investors is of interest: the STHs. These are the BTC holders who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to include the fickle-minded bunch of the sector, prone to making panic moves during volatile periods. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price of the STHs over the last couple of months: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin has made a few retests of the STH Realized Price during the last few weeks and each time, the level has held so far. The reason behind the indicator acting as support lies in how investor psychology tends to work. As the analyst has broken down in the chart, STHs typically follow a five-step cycle during bullish phases. The first three steps involve some degree of buying from the group upon retests of their cost basis from above. These holders consider the retraces to their break-even level as dip-buying opportunities. By the fourth retest, however, they can become exhausted, and may decide to stop their accumulation. This is when the level stops providing support to the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: BNB Shoots Up 6%: Is This Just The Start Of A Run To $2,400? From the chart, it’s visible that the latest retrace in Bitcoin has once again brought its value near the STH Realized Price. Given that this is the fourth retest, Maartunn has noted that this could potentially be the fourth step in the STH cycle. It will now be interesting to see how the asset’s price develops in the coming days. A sustained move below the level may confirm a breakdown of support and lead to the fifth and final step of the STH cycle, where these investors start looking at their break-even level as an opportunity to exit the market instead, thus turning what was once support into resistance. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped to $110,000 earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back to $113,000. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is once again trading at a critical juncture after a sharp Monday rally pushed the price above the $114,000 level. The surge comes as bulls attempt to counteract days of persistent selling pressure, with momentum beginning to tilt back in their favor. This move marks a potential turning point in the market, signaling that investors are testing whether Bitcoin can hold above this key threshold and establish it as a new base for higher gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Retreats: 30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July Supporting this view, fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable development in short-term holder behavior. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has reset to 1, a crucial equilibrium level. At this point, the average sale by short-term holders is occurring at their cost basis, suggesting neither widespread profit-taking nor capitulation. Instead, the market is balanced, with buyers and sellers meeting in a zone of neutrality. This equilibrium often precedes decisive market moves. A sustained push higher could validate the bulls’ efforts to regain control, while failure to hold above $114,000 risks opening the door to renewed downward pressure. Traders and analysts alike are watching closely, as Bitcoin’s next move could define the tone for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Market Equilibrium Top analyst Axel Adler highlighted the importance of the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) in assessing Bitcoin’s current market state. According to Adler, when this metric hovers around 1, momentum tends to slow because of the delicate balance between buyers and sellers. Any push above the 1 threshold quickly shifts yesterday’s breakeven holders into profitable territory. As a result, many short-term investors seize the opportunity to sell, which injects additional selling pressure into the market and dampens the strength of upward moves. Adler explained that this dynamic often creates a self-limiting environment for rallies. As Bitcoin rises, more short-term holders lock in gains, fueling waves of profit-taking that prevent the price from sustaining higher levels. This cyclical pattern highlights why the 1.0 mark on SOPR is often referred to as an “equilibrium” zone: it represents the point where the market resets, and short-term participants face little incentive to either capitulate or aggressively accumulate. For the broader trend to truly accelerate, Adler emphasized the need for a decisive breakout above this equilibrium. Specifically, he noted that a consistent rise in SOPR above 1.002 for several consecutive days would signal a shift in sentiment. Such a development would indicate that sellers are no longer overwhelming the market with profit-taking, allowing buying momentum to build and sustain higher price levels. Until then, Bitcoin remains at risk of choppy, range-bound action, with rallies vulnerable to short-term selling pressure. This perspective underscores the importance of closely tracking SOPR in the coming sessions. While the recent move above $114,000 has revived bullish hopes, the data suggests that without a clear breakout in this critical metric, Bitcoin may struggle to generate lasting momentum. Related Reading: Ethereum Outflows Hit Spot Exchanges Again: Bullish Signal Or Neutral Flows? Bitcoin Tests Resistance as Bulls Eye $117,500 Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,400 after briefly climbing above $114,800 earlier in the session. The chart shows that the $117,500 level, marked in yellow, remains a critical resistance zone that has capped multiple rallies since mid-August. Bulls will need a decisive close above this area to confirm renewed upside momentum. The 50-day moving average (blue) is now acting as near-term resistance, while the 100-day moving average (green) is serving as support. The price recently bounced from this zone, suggesting buyers are attempting to re-establish control. However, the wider structure still reflects consolidation, with BTC trapped between the $110,000 support region and the $117,500 ceiling. Related Reading: Ethereum OI Suffers Its Biggest Cleanup Since Early 2024 – Details The 200-day moving average (red), currently trending around $102,500, remains far below spot price and continues to provide a strong base for the longer-term trend. Until BTC clears the $117,500 barrier, rallies risk fading into selling pressure, keeping price action choppy. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has slipped more than 8% from its all-time high of $124,500, fueling bearish sentiment across the market. While this correction is relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns in the current cycle, the tone surrounding BTC has turned noticeably negative. Traders and investors appear cautious, with many questioning whether the market has the strength to stage another push higher in the short term. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Activity Heats Up As Fees Hit $1.4M In 24H Top analyst Axel Adler provided insights that add important context to the current landscape. According to Adler, Bitcoin is now trading with only a 4% markup above the average purchase price of Short-Term Holders (STHs). This minimal premium highlights how close BTC is to levels where recent buyers entered the market. Historically, such narrow margins suggest that confidence among short-term participants is fragile, as even slight downward moves could push many holders into losses. This dynamic helps explain why sentiment feels heavier than the actual size of the correction might justify. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, the short-term picture reflects a tense phase in which buyers are hesitant, and bears see an opportunity to press their advantage. For Bitcoin, holding above critical support may prove decisive in shaping the next move. Bitcoin, Fed Cuts, And The Need For Discounts According to Adler, the recent Federal Reserve rate cut provides a supportive backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower rates traditionally boost liquidity, which tends to benefit equities and crypto alike. However, Adler cautions against assuming that monetary easing guarantees a smooth rally. He reminds investors that markets often behave with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern, where initial optimism gives way to volatility as traders lock in profits. Adler emphasizes that the real demand for Bitcoin will only emerge if the market presents obvious discounts. Historically, sharp pullbacks have attracted sidelined buyers, fueling stronger rallies. At present, Bitcoin trades with a 15–20% markup relative to the average purchase price of Short-Term Holders. This is a danger zone, as data shows that at these levels, holders typically begin offloading coins, adding selling pressure. For comparison, at Bitcoin’s previous all-time high, the markup was only 13%. This dynamic highlights how different the current phase is from earlier in the cycle. In January 2023 and 2024, markups surged as high as 40%, yet investors continued buying, confident they could resell at higher prices in the future. Now, however, the bull cycle is far more mature. The appetite to chase highs has faded, with investors wary of getting trapped in positions that might remain underwater for years. For Bitcoin to reignite real demand, Adler argues, it will need to trade at more attractive levels that clearly signal value. In a mature market, buyers no longer blindly pile in at peaks—they wait for corrections. This shift underscores that sustained rallies require not just liquidity, but also meaningful discounts to entice fresh capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score Hits 18%: Shorts Are Losing Momentum Price Action Details: Key Levels To Watch Bitcoin is trading at $114,042, showing renewed strength after rebounding from early September lows near $110,000. The 12-hour chart highlights that BTC is now pressing into resistance around the 100 SMA at $114,679, a level that has acted as a ceiling during recent attempts to rally. A decisive break and close above this moving average could confirm momentum and open the way toward $116,000, with the major resistance at $123,217 as the next target. The 50 SMA at $112,025 and the 200 SMA at $112,167 are now aligned as short-term support, suggesting that Bitcoin has built a solid base in the $112,000 zone. This cluster of support levels provides bulls with a strong defensive line to sustain momentum. If BTC holds above this area, the bias favors a continuation higher. Related Reading: Whales Are Buying Solana: Two Wallets Pull 376K Tokens From Binance However, the market is not without risk. Failure to break through the 100 SMA convincingly could trigger another period of sideways consolidation, or even a retest of $112,000. A deeper rejection may put $110,000 back in play. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Since reaching a new all-time high of $124,427 on August 14, Bitcoin has entered a prolonged corrective phase, losing 12.18% of its value over the last two weeks. With market prices now moving within the $109,000 range, market analyst Yonsei_dent has identified a pivotal support level to the present bullish market structure. Related Reading: Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin Price Will Break This Support Level, Can $100,000 Hold? Bitcoin’s $107,800 Line In The Sand: Support Or Breakdown Ahead? In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, Yonsei_dent shares some technical insight into the Bitcoin market, highlighting several important price levels at the moment. The analyst explains that Bitcoin’s current market price is sitting almost directly on top of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, an important metric that tracks the average cost basis of recently acquired coins. Notably, investors holding coins for 1 week–1 month have an average cost basis of $116,400, while the 1–3 month cohort sits lower at $112,600. Meanwhile, holders in the 3–6 month range show a significantly cheaper cost basis of $93,400. When all these groups of short-term holders are weighted by realized capitalization, the blended average STH cost basis is calculated at around $107,800, i.e., about 1.45%% below present market prices. This alignment makes the $107,800 level a critical line in the sand, so to speak, for the current bullish structure. If Bitcoin remains above this threshold, short-term holders will remain close to breakeven, reducing the likelihood of widespread panic selling. However, if Bitcoin bulls lose this support zone, many new market entrants will fall into loss territory, increasing the potential for a heightened selling pressure. In such a bearish scenario, market participants would likely turn their attention toward the $93,400 support area, where the 3–6 month cost basis resides. This level could provide the next significant cushion, given that investors in this cohort are sitting on healthier profits and are likely to display stronger holding conviction. However, it’s worth stating that the situation is not outright bearish. A decisive recovery above $112,600–$116,400, representing the cost bases of 1–3 months and 1 week–1 month holders, respectively, could restore market confidence and reignite bullish momentum towards a potential return to the present market ATH. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Stop $183K? On-Chain Data Points to Explosive Cycle Peak Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin trades at $109,400 following a 5.65% devaluation in the past month. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 27.02% and valued at $50.48 billion. With a market cap of $2.15 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency and fifth-largest global asset. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview