Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $117,500, up about 6.1% over the past two weeks. However, recent data from Binance shows that BTC’s current price action is largely supported by retail investors, while whales have been noticeably absent. Bitcoin Holds $117,500 Amid High Retail Inflows According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin is hovering around the $117,500 price level, supported by active inflows from retail investors. Notably, large whale inflows have been completely absent, indicating that the current market is being driven by individuals more than by large wallets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy: Accumulation Over Selling Signals Stronger Bull Cycle Inflows ranging from 0 to 0.001 BTC recorded approximately 97,000 BTC. Similarly, inflows from the 0.001 to 0.01 BTC segment totaled nearly 719,000 BTC. The distribution above suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally is largely driven by retail investors. These investors conduct numerous but small-volume transactions, confirming that individual investors are shaping the market dynamics. Arab Chain added: The figures reveal that the bulk of inflows are concentrated in small and medium-sized transactions, reflecting the dominance of retail activity in Bitcoin trading. This liquidity, despite its limited scale, has helped keep the market balanced at current levels. It is worth emphasizing that there has been almost no whale pressure during the current market rally. Specifically, no significant surges in inflows of more than 100 BTC were observed, mitigating the likelihood of a sharp short-term price correction. To conclude, the current market situation shows that Bitcoin is experiencing a state of equilibrium, largely due to heightened retail investor participation. Such a scenario gives the market an opportunity to steadily surge toward the important $120,000 resistance level. That said, it would be wise to keep an eye on any whale activity, as it could quickly alter the market’s direction. Any sudden entry of whale inflows could trigger a rapid price correction, similar to previous market tops. Experts Divided On BTC Price Action As Bitcoin trades about 5.4% below its all-time high (ATH), there are signs that the top cryptocurrency by market cap may be on the cusp of a fresh rally. For instance, BTC recently broke above the mid-term holder breakeven, reducing the likelihood of an immediate sell-off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Faces Supply Squeeze As Scarcity Index Turns Positive Again Recent positive developments – such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 25 basis points – could reinvigorate the crypto market. Against that backdrop, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes recently reiterated his ambitious $1 million BTC prediction. That said, gold bug Peter Schiff opines that BTC has likely already peaked for this market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $117,523, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) reels amidst escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran – dropping from $110,530 on June 9 to just above $106,900 today – concerns are mounting that BTC’s upward momentum may have stalled. However, on-chain data suggests that both Bitcoin whales and retail investors still anticipate further upside for the leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Whale And Retail Inflows To Binance Tumble According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin inflows to Binance crypto exchange from two distinct cohorts – whales and retail investors – have fallen to their lowest levels in the current market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upward Momentum ‘Highly Likely’ To Continue, On-Chain Data Shows Darkfost shared the following chart illustrating that Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have hit their lowest point since 2024. Similarly, retail investor inflows are also at their lowest since 2024, signalling a strong preference to hold rather than sell. The contributor emphasized that this alignment in behavior between whales and retail investors is a “highly constructive signal for the market.” Apart from the consistent inflows observed at the start of the current cycle, Darkfost identified two previous instances when both groups acted in sync. Notably, such periods of aligned behavior have typically coincided with previous market tops. These tops were marked by synchronized BTC inflows into exchanges, leading to a significant uptick in selling pressure and, eventually, market demand exhaustion. Commenting on the recent drop in BTC inflows, Darkfost suggested that market participants may be waiting for clearer macroeconomic cues or are simply exhibiting high conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. They added: Such alignment across investor classes may also reflect broader market confidence, with expectations of further profits ahead. Recent trading setups support the aforementioned outlook. In a separate X post, seasoned crypto analyst Ash Crypto highlighted that a Bitcoin whale had opened a massive $200 million long position with 20x leverage. Should BTC Holders Be Worried? Despite the encouraging dip in BTC inflows to major exchanges like Binance, some analysts warn that a deeper correction may be imminent. For example, TradingView analyst MIRZA recently predicted that BTC could fall as low as $85,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Negative Funding On Binance – A Classic Setup For A Short Squeeze? Similarly, veteran trader Peter Brandt shared a cautionary note, that BTC may see a steep slide in the coming months. Brandt stated that if BTC mirrors the 2021-22 market cycle, then it may risk falling to as low as $23,600. That said, BTC outflows from exchanges continue to rise, depleting available reserves – a dynamic that could result in a supply shock. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $106,920, up 1.8% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,980 on Binance crypto exchange, surpassing its previous ATH of $108,786 recorded in January 2025. However, this rally is missing a crucial element that has historically fuelled sustained bull markets – retail investor participation. Bitcoin Rally Low On Retail Interest According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkesmeci, retail activity during the current BTC rally is notably subdued. This is unusual, as fresh ATHs typically draw significant attention from smaller investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near ATH, But Long-Term Holders Aren’t Selling – More Upside Ahead? The analyst shared the following chart highlighting this trend. It shows that BTC transfer volume in the $0 to $10,000 range – a proxy for retail demand – has only seen a slight uptick, even as prices surge. While Bitcoin’s price has been climbing steadily (white line), the 30-day percentage change in retail demand (green line) has remained largely flat. This indicates that the current momentum is likely driven by institutional investors, with retail participants yet to join in meaningfully. Recent developments support this view. For instance, institutional heavyweight Strategy continues to increase its BTC holdings, now closing in on the 600,000 BTC mark. Historical patterns – particularly from the 2020–2021 bull run – suggest that while institutional accumulation often kicks off a rally, retail investors are typically the fuel that propels it to sustained highs. Without significant retail volume, the current rally may lose steam. Concluding, the CryptoQuant analyst stated that for BTC to continue its price expansion, a clear uptick in retail participation is necessary. They added: We’re seeing early signs of movement, but it’s not yet a breakout. If retail volume kicks in over the next few weeks, new ATHs may just be the beginning. Predicting BTC’s Next Move Recent flows from crypto exchanges show that BTC reserves are dwindling at a fast pace. For instance, US-based exchange Coinbase recently saw a new outflow of 7,883 BTC, raising speculations of institutions loading up on the apex digital asset before its next leg up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Elevated Unrealized Profits Without Signs Of Panic Selling – New ATH Soon? Similarly, technicals point toward BTC hitting another ATH soon. The top cryptocurrency by market cap recently broke out of a double bottom pattern on the hourly chart, fuelling hopes of a surge toward the $112,000 mark. Meanwhile, whale behavior has been mixed. While short-term whales have taken profits, long-term holders remain steadfast, showing minimal signs of selling. That said, BTC’s medium-term outlook remains overwhelmingly positive, with some researchers predicting a $200,000 price target by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $108,802, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the demand for using Bitcoin is now neutral from retail investors and could be heading toward a reversal to the upside. Bitcoin Retail Volume No Longer Plummeting As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the demand among the retail investors may be close to growing again. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Retail Investor Demand,” which measures, as its name suggests, the demand for the Bitcoin network that’s present among the smallest of entities. Since these investors have such small wallets, their transactions tend to be of a small size as well. Thus, the Retail Investor Demand makes use of the collective transaction volume of the small transfers (less than $10,000 in value) to track the activity of this cohort. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could End Up Plummeting To $80,100 If This Support Fails Now, here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day percentage change of the Bitocin Retail Investor Demand over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day change in the Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand plunged to a significant negative level earlier in the year, meaning the volume related to small investors was down a large percentage over a 30-day period. Since this low, though, the metric has been climbing back up and its value is today at almost the 0% mark, implying its drawdown has just about finished. If the same trajectory continues, it’s possible that the indicator should break into the positive territory, which would imply growth in interest from the retail investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the last time the Retail Investor Demand saw a break into the green zone was just before last year’s rally beyond $100,000. Back then, the volume from these investors had kept rising until hitting a peak of about +30%, which had interestingly nearly coincided with last year’s price top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unable To Break Upward As 1.6 Million BTC Resistance Wall Blocks Path It may be no surprise that the asset’s consolidation followed when growth in the volume related to this group disappeared and a decline in activity took over. Back during the 2021 bull run, the Retail Investor Demand saw a plummet into the negative territory similar to the one witnessed earlier in this year. The indicator then reversed its value in spectacular fashion as it broke past the 0% mark with a sharp surge and kept rising until a notable green level. This turnaround in retail investor coincided with the start of the second half of the 2021 rally. It now remains to be seen whether retail volume will make a similar comeback this time as well, potentially implying a reignition of bullish momentum for Bitcoin, or if it would take a while more to recover. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued its recent trend of consolidation during the past day as its price is still trading around the $96,300 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has shown resilience by pushing above key demand levels, but the psychological and technical barrier of $100K remains unclaimed. This resistance has left investors and analysts in a state of uncertainty, with no clear short-term direction for the market leader. Despite this, a growing consensus among market experts suggests that BTC will likely see […]
Bitcoin has entered a brief consolidation phase after reaching new all-time highs last week, following an aggressive price surge that captured the market’s attention. The rally came on the heels of two significant events: former president Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election and the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates. These developments fueled […]
Bitcoin is showing resilience, holding firm above the $69,000 mark after a slight pullback from recent local highs at $73,600. Following weeks of bullish momentum and nearing its all-time high, BTC has settled just below the critical $73,794 resistance, a key level that, if surpassed, would push the cryptocurrency into price discovery mode. According to data from CryptoQuant, short-term holders are experiencing a net profit-to-loss of negative 20 BTC, indicating a wave of panic selling among retail investors. This type of behavior, often driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), can precede a significant price surge as stronger hands accumulate BTC at lower prices. Related Reading: Analyst Exposes Ethereum Ascending Support At $2,400 – Best Chance To Accumulate ETH? Historically, similar sell-offs by retail investors have been followed by renewed upward momentum as longer-term holders seize the opportunity to enter or reinforce their positions. If Bitcoin can maintain support above $69,000, the odds of a breakout past its all-time high increase substantially. Market watchers are now closely monitoring the resistance level, as surpassing it could trigger a wave of buying interest and push BTC into new highs. The coming days may prove crucial, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next big move. Bitcoin Weak Hands Selling Bitcoin recently attempted a breakthrough to new heights but failed to breach its all-time high of $73,794, entering a consolidation phase as the market eyes key events: next week’s U.S. election and the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate decision. CryptoQuant’s recent data, shared by analyst Axel Adler on X, points to a noteworthy trend among short-term BTC holders. The net profit-to-loss ratio for these holders shows a negative balance of -20 BTC, indicating a wave of panic selling following Bitcoin’s struggle to establish new highs. This sell-off among short-term investors, who tend to react more quickly to market volatility, suggests some caution amid uncertainty. Adler emphasizes that in such turbulent times, a long-term “HODL” (hold on for dear life) approach can be the most beneficial strategy. Holding strong through market noise has historically rewarded BTC investors who keep their positions intact during periods of retracement and heightened volatility. With Bitcoin’s all-time high in sight, a successful breakout would likely signal the beginning of a broad market bull run. The coming days are critical as Bitcoin sits at a pivotal point in its cycle, balancing between strong consolidation and the possibility of explosive growth. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Reduced By $2.1 Billion In 24 Hours – Time For Spot To Push The Price? The influence of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, paired with potential election outcomes, could create the market conditions needed for BTC to push past its all-time high. If this level is breached, it would not only affirm a bullish outlook for BTC but likely set off a rally across the entire cryptocurrency market. BTC Holding Above Key Support Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,620 following a retrace from its recent high near $73,600. Despite this pullback, bulls remain in control as BTC holds firmly above the crucial $69,000 support level—a price point that acted as resistance since late July. This level has now transformed into strong support, bolstering bullish sentiment in the market. If Bitcoin holds above $69,000, a renewed push above all-time highs seems likely. Breaking this resistance would propel BTC into uncharted territory, potentially sparking a fresh wave of bullish momentum and price discovery. However, if the price dips below this mark, it could signal a need for a more significant correction to gather enough buying power for the next move up. Related Reading: Dogwifhat (WIF) Prepares For A Bullish Breakout – Analyst Sets $3 Target The $69,000 level serves as a key indicator of market confidence, as losing it would imply that BTC might temporarily seek lower support levels to attract new buyers and stabilize before another attempt at new highs. For now, Bitcoin’s price structure remains strong, and as long as this support holds, the market anticipates further upside momentum in the coming days. Bulls are closely watching this level, as it may define the next phase of Bitcoin’s bull run. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Following its bearish start to October, Bitcoin has since shifted momentum, rising as high as $69,000 in the last two weeks. Despite this significant price rally, Bitcoin retail investors remain hesitant to engage the market. In its weekly crypto report on Friday, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shared an interesting insight into this low retail activity in the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 70%+ Powerful Bull Wave To Push It Over $100,000, How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Retail Investors’ Holding Grows At Historically Slow Pace – Report According to CryptoQuant, retail investors’ holdings have grown by 18,000 BTC valued at $1.2 billion over the last four months reaching a total new value of 1.753 million BTC worth $112.7 billion. While this development demonstrates a rising market interest by these small investors, the analytic firm notes the pace of accumulation is significantly slow compared to historical data as retail investors only acquired a net 1,000 BTC valued at $66.31 million, in the last 30 days. Notably, the retail investor accumulation rate has been on a consistent decline since May 2023, when their holdings rose by 27,000 BTC worth $1.79 billion Therefore, CryptoQuant reports that these Bitcoin individual investors have only increased their investments by 30,000 BTC valued at $1.99 billion in 2024, which pales in comparison to the whale investors whose holdings have grown by 173,000 BTC worth $11.50 billion in the same period. During periods of price gain, low retail investor activity as discussed above can be concerning as it represents decreased market liquidity or even a lack of market confidence in the asset’s ability to sustain its current bullish trajectory. Alternatively, this lack of interest from small-scale investors also presents positive indications. For example, CryptoQuant reports that low retail activity includes these small investors holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling. The analytics firm notes that Bitcoin transfer to exchange in January 2023 has decreased from a daily average of 2,700 BTC to 1,400 BTC in 2024, thus there is reduced selling pressure on the token. In addition, transfer activity among retail investors remains low, with transaction volume dropping to $326 million on September 21, the lowest level recorded since 2020. While reduced transfer activity may indicate limited market volatility, CryptoQuant states that low retail activity has historically preceded significant price gains for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at 66,896 following a 1.11% decline in the last day due to reports of an alleged investigation into Tether, the issuer of stablecoin USDT, and conflict in the Middle East. However, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume is up by 34.29% and is valued at $42.10 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin As National Reserve Asset: Key Insights From Forbes On Central Banks Interest Featured image from Shuttershock, chart from Tradingview
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin transfer volume of retail investors has seen a sharp decline recently, a sign that this group may be losing interest. Bitcoin Volume For Retail-Sized Transactions Has Plunged Recently As explained by CrypoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the total BTC transfer volume for transactions valued between $1,000 and $10,000 has gone down recently. The “transfer volume” here refers to the total amount of Bitcoin (in USD) that addresses on the network are moving around daily. This metric isn’t confused with the “trading volume,” which typically keeps track of only the volume involved in trades on spot exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near ‘Euphoria’ Boundary: What Happens After A Breach? When the value of the transfer volume is high, it means the users are moving around large amounts on the blockchain right now. Such a trend implies that investors are actively interested in trading the asset. On the other hand, the low metric suggests that holders may not pay attention to the cryptocurrency as they aren’t participating in much activity on the network. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin transfer volume specifically for the transactions involving the movement of coins worth at least $1,000 and at most $10,000: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin transfer volume for transactions of this size spiked to relatively high levels during the rally earlier in the year. The $1,000 to $10,000-sized transfers are considered relatively small, so their volume would reflect the level of activity of the smallest of investors in the market: retail. The increase in this metric from earlier in the year would suggest the price surge ignited interest in the asset from these investors. The chart shows that a similar trend was also observed during the previous bull run. Sharp price action is generally exciting to retail investors, so it’s not surprising that they tend to become more active during rallies. This increased interest is what makes any surge sustainable for extended periods. As such, only rallies that can attract retail interest can hope to last. As the chart shows, the Bitcoin transfer volume for retail-sized moves peaked in May and has since seen a sharp drawdown of 30%. This would mean that the bearish price action has made these investors disappear. Interestingly, the downtrend in the indicator persisted even when Bitcoin had made a recovery back above $70,000 a few weeks ago, which could have been a potential foreshadowing that this rally would never stay. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Tied To BitMEX Whales: Quant Uncovers Link With the 30-day retail transfer volume floating at the same lows as during the bearish period in July 2021, any new recovery runs could also be set up for failure unless the indicator shows a revival. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,200, down over 4% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com