The founder of CryptoQuant has explained that Bitcoin is not “pumpable” right now based on the divergence in the Market Cap and Realized Cap. Bitcoin Market Cap Fell Even As Realized Cap Grew In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has talked about the difference in growth that the BTC Market Cap and Realized Cap have witnessed over the past year. The Market Cap here is just the total value of the cryptocurrency’s supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap is also a model to calculate BTC’s total valuation, but it doesn’t take such a simple approach. This on-chain capitalization model assumes that the ‘real’ value of any coin in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Under MVRV Band That Marked Last 3 Bottoms In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the amount that the Bitcoin investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the Market Cap represents the value that they are holding in the present. Generally, changes in the former, which can be thought of as capital inflows/outflows, result in changes in the latter. Below is a chart that tracks how the Market Cap is reacting to fluctuations in the Realized Cap. Looks like the value of the metric has been negative in recent weeks | Source: @ki_young_ju on X As displayed in the graph, the growth rate difference between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap was positive in mid-2025, suggesting that the Market Cap was going up faster than the Realized Cap. This changed in the last quarter of the year, however, with the indicator dropping into the negative zone as the market observed a crash. 2026 has only seen the metric drop deeper as the price decline in the cryptocurrency has continued. “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” noted Young Ju. The CryptoQuant founder has pointed out the contrast in market dynamics between 2024 and 2025 to showcase his point. In 2024, a $10 billion increase in the Realized Cap was enough to cause a $26 billion jump in the Market Cap. Over the course of 2025, a whopping $308 billion in capital flowed into the asset, yet the Market Cap actually fell by $98 billion. “Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect,” explained the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues In some other news, New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been capitulating recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. “New Whales” are the investors who entered the market within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC in their balance. During the recent price drawdown, this cohort took massive losses, including a loss-taking spike of $1.46 billion on February 5th. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,500, down over 12% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The founder of CryptoQuant doesn’t think Bitcoin will see a major crash of more than 50% like past bear markets and instead sees sideways action ahead. Bitcoin Has Seen A Slowdown In Realized Cap Recently In a new post on X, CrypotQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up recently. The on-chain indicator that Young Ju has cited is the “Realized Cap,” which measures the cryptocurrency’s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the last time that it changed hands. In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the total amount of capital that the investors of the asset as a whole have put into the network. Changes in the metric, therefore, signify the exit or entry of capital relative to BTC. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap enjoyed sharp growth between late 2023 and late 2025, indicating that the coin was receiving continuous injections of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bounce A Bull Trap? Analyst Sees 2022-Style Bear Flag Recently, however, the uptrend in the indicator has seemingly broken, with its value facing a small net decline. In the past, bull markets have coincided with an upward trajectory in the Realized Cap, with a transition to weak inflows or net outflows leading into bearish phases. Considering that the metric’s trend is now hinting at the latter type of market conditions, it’s possible that a bearish transition might be occurring for the cryptocurrency. That said, the analyst has pointed out that the latest cycle isn’t the same as the ones from before. “Liquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is pointless,” noted Young Ju. “Institutions holding long-term killed the old whale-retail sell cycle.” Examples of demand channels that didn’t exist before include treasury companies like Strategy and investment vehicles like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “I don’t think we’ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,” said the CryptoQuant founder. “Just boring sideways for the next few months.” It now remains to be seen what trajectory Bitcoin will end up following. In some other news, on-chain demand as gauged by the Realized Cap isn’t the only one that has declined recently. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post, demand from retail investors has also been missing. In the chart, the metric shown is the 30-day percentage change in the volume associated with the retail investors, the smallest of hands on the network. This indicator has been negative lately, implying that the volume of transactions valued at less $10,000 has been declining on a monthly timeframe. Related Reading: Solana ETF Volume Explodes: Anomaly Or New Normal? This hasn’t changed even after the recent recovery surge in Bitcoin. “The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,900, up 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The founder and CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed how Bitcoin on-chain capital inflows have stalled over the last couple of months. Bitcoin Realized Cap Has Witnessed A Slowdown Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how on-chain capital inflows have been weakening for Bitcoin recently. “After about 2.5 years of growth, realized cap has stalled over the past month,” noted Young Ju. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each coin in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Diverge: Longs Dominate BTC, While ETH Shorts Rise Since the last transaction of any coin is likely to represent the last instance of it changing hands, the price at that time can be considered as its current cost basis. Therefore, the Realized Cap is just a sum of the cost basis of the entire BTC supply. In other words, it tracks the capital that the investors used to purchase their tokens. Realized Cap had been enjoying growth for the last couple of years, but as the CryptoQuant founder has revealed, capital inflows have dropped off. This suggests a decline in sentiment around Bitcoin. The turnaround in sentiment is also visible through the analytics firm’s PnL Index, which incorporates key on-chain indicators to build a single valuation metric for BTC. The indicators in question are the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and STH/LTH SOPR. The first two both deal with the amount of unrealized profit or loss held by the investors as a whole, while the latter provides a look into investor profit-taking. Below is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin PnL Index over the history of the asset. From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin PnL Index saw its 365-day MA reach a high earlier in the year, implying that the coin had potentially become overvalued. Since then, the metric has seen a reversal to the downside. Currently, its value is still notably positive, so the cryptocurrency may be considered to be in a bullish phase, but historically, drawdowns have tended to lead into bear markets. Though there were a couple of instances where this pattern didn’t hold. One being the aftermath of the COVID crash and the other the decline that occurred in the early months of 2025. Related Reading: Ethereum Exchange Outflows Soar To $978M: Sign Of Dip Buying? So far, the indicator hasn’t shown signs of any turnaround back to the upside, although it should be noted that it’s an average over the past year, so there is some delay attached. Based on the on-chain trend, Young Ju has said, “Sentiment recovery might take a few months.” BTC Price Bitcoin has made recovery from last week’s plunge as its price is now back at $89,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum. Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Solana Enters Bear Territory: Realized Loss Now Outweighs Profit This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation with the current spot price, considering the latest value of the cryptocurrency to be the one value for all coins. In short, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the asset’s supply. On the other hand, the market cap is the value that the investors are carrying in the present. The Realized Cap itself isn’t the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, measuring the 365-day changes occurring in the Realized Cap. Changes in the indicator naturally reflect the amount of capital exiting or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the asset’s netflow. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has witnessed both its 7-day and 59-day MAs reverse down recently, with the former line crossing under the latter. The trend indicates that growth in the Realized Cap has been slowing down during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin is lacking momentum from new cost basis inflows,” noted the analyst. With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator is now flagging the current market to be in a “bear phase.” The last time this signal maintained for an extended duration was alongside BTC’s decline over the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long momentum from new capital inflows will stay weak for Bitcoin this time around. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders are still under a notable amount of stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has pointed out in an X post. Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who got into the market during the past 155 days. Despite the rebound BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still in a loss of 10%. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,400, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows inflows into Bitcoin have recently been so large that they outweigh the cumulative capital that entered BTC in its first 15 years. Bitcoin Realized Cap Shows Acceleration In Inflows Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has shared the trend in the Realized Cap of Bitcoin over its entire history. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain indicator that measures, in short, the total amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: XRP Bearish Signal: Whales Offload $486 Million In Asset When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are feeding a net amount of capital into the network. On the other hand, it going down suggests the cryptocurrency is facing outflows. Now, here is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows how the Realized Cap has developed over the history of Bitcoin: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap saw an acceleration in 2024, implying capital started to enter into the digital asset at a faster rate. In the past year and a half, the metric has seen an explosive growth of $625 billion. Interestingly, between 2009 and 2024, the Realized Cap cumulatively grew by $435 billion. This means that not only have recent capital flows overtaken these inflows that occurred over a much longer timespan, they have actually gained a notable distance. The much sharper capital inflows are a reflection of how BTC is growing as an asset. A relatively modest amount of inflows may have been enough to double the asset’s value in the past, but today, a huge amount of capital is needed to move the needle. A new catalyst for growth this cycle has been in the form of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These investment vehicles allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to own any sats themselves. This has made these funds a popular way to invest for the traditional traders unfamiliar with cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges, and brought in previously untapped capital. In some other news, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on how Bitcoin investor cohort behavior has recently looked from the lens of the Accumulation Trend Score. Related Reading: Analyst Sets Bold $1,314 Target For Solana After Cup-And-Handle Breakout This indicator tells us about whether the BTC holders are buying or selling right now. Below is the chart posted by Glassnode that shows the trend in the metric for the various investor groups. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator is in the neutral-to-distribution region for all groups currently, a sign that the Bitcoin investors as a whole are in a phase of selling. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $115,400, up 3% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has set a new all-time high (ATH) above $112,000, and if on-chain data is to go by, there is some real conviction behind the move. Bitcoin Realized Cap Shows ATH Breakout Not Just Speculative In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the “Realized Cap” of Bitcoin. The Realized Cap is a capitalization model that calculates the asset’s total value by assuming that the ‘true’ value of each coin in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Moving With Stocks, But Ethereum’s Correlation Is Fading This is different from the methodology that the usual market cap employs, where all tokens part of the supply are assigned the same value: the current Bitcoin spot price. The last transaction of any token is likely to represent the last time that it changed hands on the network, so the price at that time could be considered as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this value for all coins, its value essentially represents a net cost basis for the entire supply. In other words, the model can be looked at as a measure of the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the market cap is the value that the holders are carrying in the present. During the past day, the Bitcoin market cap saw a surge as the spot price set a new record. But what about the Realized Cap? “Unlike market cap, Realized Cap reflects actual capital inflows – only rising when coins move at higher prices,” notes the analytics firm. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode, showing whether or not real capital inflows occurred for Bitcoin with this rally: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has been following an upward trajectory for a while now, suggesting capital inflows have been coming into the asset. With the latest price surge, too, the metric has seen a leg up, corresponding to a whopping $4.4 billion flowing into the coin. “The $4.4B jump as $BTC broke a new ATH above $112K confirms real conviction behind the move, not just speculative markup,” explains the analytics firm. In some other news, the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is currently sitting around the 2.25 mark, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has pointed out in an X post. The MVRV Ratio measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and Realized Cap. From the chart, it’s visible that BTC encountered resistance the last few times the metric hit a value around 2.75. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? Right now, the 2.75 level corresponds to a spot price of $130,900. “This will essentially be the first selling pressure point,” says the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen some pullback since its ATH as its price has come back down to $110,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap has surged to a new all-time high (ATH) recently, but monthly inflows have slowed down considerably. Bitcoin Realized Cap Is Growing At A Notably Slower Rate Now According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Realized Cap of Bitcoin has just set a new record. The “Realized Cap” here refers to a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates the asset’s total value by assuming the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the network. The last transaction of a given coin is likely to represent the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at the time of the move would denote the coin’s current cost basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Fear—Green Sign For Recovery? As the Realized Cap sums up this acquisition value for all tokens part of the circulating supply, it essentially determines the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase Bitcoin. Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in its value over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realizzed Cap has been following an uptrend for a while now. Whenever the indicator’s value rises, it means a net amount of capital is flowing into the cryptocurrency. Thus, the long-term surge would imply BTC has been enjoying continuous inflows. That said, while capital has been flowing in without break, the growth rate has fluctuated over the cycle. From the chart, it’s visible that the Realized Cap saw a particularly sharp rise during two periods: Q1 2024 and Q4 2024. The Q1 2024 phase was followed by a rapid slowdown in capital inflowsm and so far, it would appear that the Q4 2024 one has been seeing something similar. At the height of inflows in December, the growth rate of the metric stood at around 13% per month. Today, this value has declined to just 0.9% per month. Growth is still continuing, of course, and the indicator has managed to set a new record of $872 billion. But as Glassnode has explained, the slowdown could indicate “investor appetite is softening – signaling continued risk-off sentiment.” Both the periods of fresh capital inflows last year coincided with bull rallies for Bitcoin, while the phase of slowdown in between the two resulted in bearish consolidation for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Hasn’t Lost This Key Level Yet—Bull Cycle Intact? The latest drop in Realized Cap growth has so far resulted in a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Given the trend of last year, it’s possible that a proper reversal may not happen for BTC until the metric catches a sharper uptrend. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement over the last few days as its price is still floating around the $84,700 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed down since last year’s high. Here’s what this could mean for BTC’s price. Bitcoin Realized Cap Continues To Grow, Albeit At A Slower Rate According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, capital inflows into BTC have been on the decline recently. The indicator of relevance here is the “Realized Cap,” which is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates its total valuation by assuming that the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. The last transaction for any token can be considered to be the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at its time would denote its current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap takes the total sum of the cost basis of the entire BTC supply in circulation. Related Reading: Arbitrum (ARB) Primed For 46% Rally If This Happens, Analyst Reveals This value is nothing, but the total amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase the cryptocurrency. Changes in the indicator, therefore, reflect the capital flowing into or out of the asset. Below is the chart for the Realized Cap shared by the analytics firm, which shows the trend in its daily value, as well as its 30-day percentage change, over the last couple of years. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap observed some sharp growth during the last couple of months of 2024, implying capital was flowing at a rapid rate into the cryptocurrency. This is more easily visible through the monthly percentage change, which shot up to a very high positive level. These inflows appear to have provided the fuel for BTC’s rally above $100,000. From the chart, it’s apparent that after hitting a peak, the 30-day change in the Realized Cap reversed its direction and started going down in a sharp manner instead. This decline in the metric has continued into 2025. Despite the drawdown, though, its value is still quite positive, suggesting the Realized Cap continues to grow at a notable rate. A similar trend was also witnessed back in the first few months of 2024, where a high in capital inflows was followed by a cooldown, which led into a lengthy consolidation period for Bitcoin. So far, capital is still flowing into BTC at a rate of $38.6 billion per month, which is significantly higher than the lows observed during last year’s sideways phase. It now remains to be seen whether the inflows will continue to decline in the coming days, or if a reversal would happen, potentially acting as a bullish signal for the asset. Related Reading: Trader Greed Strikes Again: Bitcoin Corrects To $102,000 After FOMO Spike Following the latest streak of inflows, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has reached the $832 billion mark, which is a new all-time high. BTC Price Bitcoin has been struggling to pick a direction during the last few days as its price is still trading around the $104,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
A quant has pointed out a pattern forming in a Bitcoin indicator that could imply the end of the current bull cycle may not be far. Realized Cap Of New Bitcoin Investors Could Hint At End Of Cycle In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst talked about the historical trend in the fresh capital inflows […]
Bitcoin has returned back above the $100,000 mark as on-chain data shows capital continues to flow into the asset at a rapid rate. Bitcoin Realized Cap Has Crossed The $768 Billion Milestone In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about the latest trend in the Realized Cap of Bitcoin. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain capitalization model that calculates BTC’s total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the network. Related Reading: Dogecoin, XRP Flashing ‘Overlooked’ Bullish Signal, Santiment Reveals The previous transfer of any coin is likely to correspond to the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this value for all tokens in circulation, it essentially calculates the sum of the cost basis of the Bitcoin supply. In other words, the model measures the total amount of capital that the investors as whole have put into the cryptocurrency. Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju that shows the trend in its value over the entire history of the digital asset: As displayed in the above graph, the BTC Realized Cap has been riding a sharp uptrend during the past year, which suggests capital has rapidly been pouring into the coin. “Bitcoin is attracting $80 billion every month,” notes the CryptoQuant founder. “Nearly half of the capital that has entered the Bitcoin market over the past 15 years was added this year.” Thanks to these impressive inflows, the total BTC investment has almost reached the $769 billion milestone. It’s unclear how long the Realized Cap could continue this sharp trajectory, but for now, it seems there is still plenty of demand for the asset. In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has also discussed about the same metric from a different angle. The above chart shows the cumulative data for the Bitcoin “Realized Profit” and “Realized Loss.” These metrics, as their names imply, measure the amount of profit and loss, respectively, that the investors are realizing or harvesting through their selling. Over the history of the cryptocurrency, the difference between the cost basis and selling price for profitable transactions stands at $1.27 trillion, while that for the underwater transfers is at $592 billion. Related Reading: Crypto Suffers $1.6 Billion Liquidations As XRP, DOGE Down 10% The difference between these two metrics roughly comes out equal to the Realized Cap of Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered back above the $100,000 level after having slipped under $95,000 earlier in the week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The CryptoQuant founder has shared a model for Bitcoin that suggests the cryptocurrency’s maximum price could lie around $135,000 right now. Bitcoin Model Established On Realized Cap Could Reveal Price Ceiling & Floor In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a BTC pricing model that’s based on the Realized Cap. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain valuation model for Bitcoin that assumes the ‘real’ value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Down 7%, But Whales Continue To Buy For any token, its last transfer is likely to represent the last instance of it changing hands, so the price at its time could be considered as the token’s current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap is a sum of the cost basis of all coins on the network. Put another way, the Realized Cap measures the total amount of capital that the holders of the cryptocurrency as a whole have invested into it. A new metric can be derived from this indicator by dividing it by the total circulating supply, representing the cost basis for the average token or investor on the chain. This indicator is known as the Realized Price. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price itself isn’t of interest, but its two multipliers are: 3.9x and 0.75x. Below is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows the trend in these two multipliers of the Realized Price over the history of Bitcoin. In the graph, the CryptoQuant founder has marked the 3.9x multiplier of the Realized Price as BTC’s “ceiling price.” Similarly, the 0.75x multiplier represents the “floor price.” An inspection of the trend in the indicator during the past cycles reveals why the analyst has chosen to do so. It turns out that the asset has generally topped at or slightly above the 3.9x multiplier, while it has reached bottoms at or slightly under the 0.75x multiplier. At present, the ceiling price for the asset is sitting at a value of around $135,741, while the floor price at $26,104. Bitcoin is much higher than the latter right now, but there is also an appreciable distance to the former. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Is Finally Back: These Metrics Point To An Explosion In Interest This means that at the current amount of capital invested into the cryptocurrency, it still has room for growth, at least going by the pattern observed throughout history. Naturally, the ceiling price isn’t something that’s certain to remain where it is now for the rest of the bull run, since any further fresh capital inflows into the asset would raise it. But for now, under $136,000 is looking like Bitcoin’s upper limit. BTC Price The Bitcoin rally has hit a pause button recently as the coin’s value is still trading around $90,000 right now. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price and the entire crypto market have been on a tear since the outcome of the United States elections was announced in the early hours of Wednesday, November 6. The premier cryptocurrency specifically has breached and printed new all-time high prices over the past few days. Interestingly, the price of BTC has shown no signs of weakness going into the weekend, with the market leader forging a new record high above $77,000 on Friday, November 8. While the hot streak of the Bitcoin price can be attributed to the latest victory of former president Donald Trump in the US, on-chain data suggests that this rally has been a long time coming. BTC’s Realized Cap Experiences Largest Increase In Two Years One of the latest on-chain metrics to offer an interesting insight into the meteoric rise of Bitcoin’s price is the realized cap indicator. In a November 8 post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin’s realized cap recently reached a new all-time high of $656 billion. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Forecast: Analyst Says Downside Is Minimized As 1M, 3M, And 6M Candles Turn Bullish For clarity, the realized cap metric measured the value of each Bitcoin as at the last time they were transacted. This offers a more interesting way to evaluate the cost basis (the time in which the coins changed hands) as opposed to the regular market capitalization, which is derived by multiplying the total number of circulating coins by the current market price. Data from Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin realized cap witnessed a 3.8% upswing in the past 30 days, which represents one of the metric’s largest increases since January 2023. As shown in the chart below, this metric has been experiencing positive growth since the start of the year, as the 30-day net change has mostly been green. It is worth mentioning that the realized cap metric also represents the amount of capital flowing in and out of the flagship cryptocurrency. The latest increase reflects a net capital inflow of over $2.5 billion in the past month, suggesting the entry of new investors — both retail and institutional investors. With the realized cap and Bitcoin price consolidating over the past few months, a sudden increase of the former to $656 billion suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might be moving from the “reaccumulation” phase to a markup phase. Ultimately, a continuation of the capital inflow trend could sustain the increase in the Bitcoin price over the next couple of months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is valued at around $76,700, having lost its hold above the historical $77,000 level. According to CoinGecko data, the market leader is up by an impressive 10% in the past week. Related Reading: Ethereum Analyst Sees Altseason Potential As BTS Is Still Outpacing ETH – Time To Buy Altcoins? Featured image created by Dall.E, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap has set a new all-time high (ATH) recently as the market has witnessed sharp capital inflows. Bitcoin Realized Cap Has Just Set A New Record According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the capital inflows into Bitcoin have accelerated recently based on the trend in the […]
The CEO of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how the Bitcoin whales have been showing a shift in their Realized Cap recently. New Bitcoin Whales Are About To Overtake Old Ones In a new post on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed the recent trend in the Realized Caps of the new and old Bitcoin whales. The “Realized Cap” here is a model that calculates the total valuation of Bitcoin by assuming that each coin’s ‘true’ value in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred or sold on the blockchain. The last transfer of any coin is likely the last point at which it changes hands, so the price at its time could be equated to its current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap measures the sum of the cost basis of the BTC supply. Or, put another way, this metric keeps track of the total amount of capital the investors have put into BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Nears 20%: Could This Trigger A Fresh Surge? In the context of the current topic, the version of the Realized Cap that’s of interest is limited to just two segments of the market: the new and old whales. Whales refer to entities carrying more than 1,000 coins in their wallets. This cohort is divided into two based on age using a 155-day cutoff. All whales bought within the past five months belong to the short-term holder or new whale cohort, while those who have been holding for longer than this duration are called the long-term holder or old whales. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the relative percentages of the Realized Cap contributed by these two Bitcoin groups: As the above graph shows, the Realized Cap of the new Bitcoin whales wasn’t anything significant before 2018, indicating that veteran capital was king on the network. Following 2018, though, the percentage dominance of this group gradually started to show an improvement. And this year, the growth in the Realized Cap of this cohort has blown up, with the metric’s value now sitting at $108 billion. For perspective, the indicator is standing at $113 billion for the old whales, which suggests the disparity between the two almost nonexistent. “Bitcoin whales are experiencing a generational shift,” notes Young Ju, based on this trend. “Realized Cap of new whales is expected to surpass that of older whales soon.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Not Sold On Uptober As Sentiment Remains Neutral As for the sudden sharp growth in the Realized Cap of the new whales, it’s likely that the inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been falling in this category. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,200, down more than 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data of an on-chain indicator could suggest Bitcoin is currently not at a stage where its price would be at a significant risk of facing correction. Bitcoin 365-Day MA Growth Rate Is Sitting Below Historical Overheated Zone In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the recent trend in the “Growth Rate” metric for Bitcoin. The Growth Rate basically keeps track of the difference between the changes happening in the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The Market Cap here is naturally just the simple valuation of the cryptocurrency’s total circulating supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap, on the other hand, is a bit more complex. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again? The Realized Cap is an on-chain capitalization model for the asset that takes the “real” value of any coin in circulation to be the same as the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain. As the last transaction of any coin was likely the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time would act as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this price for all tokens of the asset, it essentially calculates the sum of the cost basis of each coin in the circulating supply. In other words, the Realized Cap measures the total amount of capital that the investors have used to buy their Bitcoin. The changes in the Realized Cap would, therefore, represent the capital inflows or outflows happening for the cryptocurrency. As the Growth Rate keeps track of how changes in the Realized Cap are reflecting in the Market Cap, it basically tells us about how reactive the market is being to capital flows. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Growth Rate over the last decade or so: As is visible in the above graph, the 365-day MA Bitcoin Growth Rate has been at positive levels since early 2023. When the indicator has green values, it means that the Market Cap is growing at a rate faster than the Realized Cap. At present, the indicator is sitting at the 0.001 mark, which is a relatively high level. Thus, it would appear that capital inflows have been rapidly driving up the price recently. Historically, during periods of euphoria in the market, where Market Cap has exploded relative to the Realized Cap, tops have become more probable to take place. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery From the chart, it’s apparent, though, that the recent levels of the metric, although high, have still been below the 0.002 mark beyond which corrections have become likely in the past. The Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) back in March, which has continued to be the top for the rally thus far, had also occurred when the Growth Rate had surged above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin had slipped under the $67,000 mark yesterday, but the asset has since seen a recovery push that has now taken its price back above $69,300. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
At spot rates, Bitcoin is resilient, soaking in selling pressure and bouncing off the 20-day moving average, as evident in the daily chart. As BTC floats above $69,000, it appears that bulls are preparing for even more gains in the days ahead. For now, BTC has a strong rejection at $72,000. However, if this level […]