Despite recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Bitcoin’s price reacted unexpectedly, declining when many anticipated a rise. However, market analyst Crypto Birb has identified ten indicators suggesting a potential surge may be on the horizon. Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Moving Averages At the time of the expert’s post, BTC traded at $112,000. He pointed that with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gaining traction and market fear subsiding, the Bitcoin price appears to be consolidating before a significant upward movement, indicating that a breakout is imminent. Currently, the Bitcoin price trades comfortably above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $102,934 and the 200-week SMA of $54,756. The correlation with the S&P 500 stands at -0.02, suggesting that Bitcoin’s movements are largely independent of broader equity market trends. Related Reading: HYPE Nears All-Time High With HyperEVM Integration, Can Buybacks Sustain the Rally? On the daily chart, Bitcoin is supported by the 200-day SMA at $109,267 and a key trend line at $113,100. The relative strength index (RSI) is neutral at 50, while the average true range (ATR) has decreased to 3,495, indicating a calmer market environment. In terms of short-term bias, the market shows balance but is not bullish yet. The CTF Trailer indicates a bearish mode with a stop at $115,623, while the higher time frame trailer reflects a bullish mode with a stop at $114,601. Currently, Bitcoin’s trading range is between $110,000 and $117,800, and this compression indicates that an equilibrium is forming. The next significant movement is expected to occur once this range is broken. Calm Before The Storm? Sentiment within the market appears balanced, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 51, which reflects a neutral stance. Crypto Birb asserts that emotions have reset following last week’s spike in fear, creating a stable environment for sustainable price movements. Volatility is also cooling off, with a 50-day volatility of 3,080 and an ATR of 3,495. This contraction in trading range suggests that traders are reloading positions rather than capitulating, and history shows that periods of calm consolidation often precede volatility shocks. On the mining front, the economic landscape is looking favorable, with mining costs at $106,400 and a ratio of 0.94, indicating that miners remain moderately profitable after last week’s compression. Stable costs suggest no immediate pressure for forced selling, and network fundamentals remain solid. Looking at the October outlook, the month-to-date performance shows a minor decline of 0.53%, which is still an improvement over the typical historic October average of 19.78%. This suggests a healthy reset within an otherwise strong seasonal backdrop. A Potential 51% Surge Ahead? The expert further highlighted that historically, the fourth quarter has been bullish for the Bitcoin price, with an average gain of 51.04% over the past 15 years, resulting in nine winning years. If the current structure holds, Q4 is poised to remain a high-probability accumulation zone. Related Reading: XRP At $1,000 Is Peanuts If Used To Clear US National Debt; Pundit Explains Lastly, data related to Ethereum ETFs indicates a quiet strength beneath the surface, with spot ETF volumes at $147 million and net inflows of $133.9 million. The total assets under management have reached $24.88 billion, and rising liquidity in altcoins complements the ongoing flows into Bitcoin, supporting a narrative of market rotation. At the time of writing, however, the Bitcoin price has retraced back towards $110,439. Yet, still inside its current consolidation range that could result in a new uptrend for the leading crypto. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price showed some signs of recovery at the start of the week, trading above the $110,000 mark. This uptick follows two consecutive Fridays of major drops, igniting fears and uncertainty among investors. These concerns have been compounded by predictions from experts about a potential bear market on the horizon. Looming Bear Market Threat Market analyst Doctor Profit, known for his accurate forecasts regarding the recent Bitcoin price trajectory, has recently cast doubt on whether market makers will allow both retail and institutional investors to exit at more favorable prices after incurring losses. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Moves: Can It Repeat The 36,000% Rally ‘Anomaly’ From Last Cycle? In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), he suggested that the maximum bullish scenario for the Bitcoin price in the near-term could reach around $116,500, representing a 9% increase from its current levels. However, he emphasizes that a drop below $101,700 would breach what he terms the “magic bull market line,” effectively confirming a bear market. Profit advises caution, predicting a significant move that could push the Bitcoin price below this critical threshold, signaling the end of the bull run. Adding to the bearish sentiment, the Bitcoin price is currently hovering below the short-term holder realized price of $112,500. This figure represents the average entry point for short-term traders and buyers, many of whom are now facing losses. On-chain data compiled by the expert also indicates that these traders are likely to sell off their positions if the Bitcoin price dips between 5% and 10%, potentially intensifying short-term selling pressure. Challenging Times Ahead For Bitcoin Price Profit further elaborates on the market conditions, pointing out that current price movements are indicative of market makers liquidating both bullish and bearish positions. “Nothing goes down in a straight line,” he notes, suggesting that while the market could be in a bear market, it is essential to remain aware of short-term fluctuations. He argues that high-leverage traders must be wiped out on both sides before the market experiences its next significant downward movement. Related Reading: Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over? Analyst Sees Echoes Of 2021 The expert also warns that every brief rally is designed to mislead bullish traders and liquidate late bearish positions. The market makers’ strategy appears to involve pushing Bitcoin toward the $116,500 region to eliminate late bears and generate sufficient liquidity for another downward price adjustment, potentially leading to new local lows. Looking ahead, Doctor Profit predicts that such price movements will continue to recur in the coming weeks and months, creating a challenging environment for investors in the volatile digital asset market. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
As the Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum begins to wane, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has retraced to the $110,000 mark, raising concerns about a potential shift into a new bearish cycle. CryptoBirb, a noted trader and analyst, suggested in a recent social media analysis that Bitcoin has only about 60 days of growth left, indicating that it is currently 93% into its cycle, which has lasted 1,007 days. This analysis aligns with the ongoing Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, hinting at a critical juncture for the leading cryptocurrency as it approaches the conclusion of its current bullish phase. Potential Peak And Bear Market Timing In examining historical cycles, CryptoBirb highlights significant patterns that may inform future price movements. The analyst points out the duration of past cycles: from around 350 days in the early years to over 1,000 days in more recent cycles. Presently, Bitcoin’s trajectory is reportedly tracking toward approximately 1,060 to 1,100 days, placing it in the final 5-8% of this current bullish cycle, holding significant implications for the broader digital asset market as well. Related Reading: Pro-XRP Lawyer Blasts SEC Lead Counsel In Ripple Case Following Conclusion The Bitcoin Halving which took place last April is also a pivotal factor. Historical data reveals that previous Halvings have led to peaks in price approximately 492 days later, suggesting a target window between October 19 and November 20, 2025. This timeline reinforces the notion that the market is merely 60 days away from a potential peak, with historical cycles indicating that the next significant bear market may not occur until 2026. CryptoBirb also outlines the patterns observed during past bear markets, noting that they typically last between 364 and 411 days, with average losses around 66%. If such a scenario plays out, the next bearish phase could see BTC retracing toward $37,000 once again. Bitcoin Support And Resistance Levels August and September have historically been challenging months for Bitcoin, with average returns dipping significantly. However, October and November are traditionally among the strongest months, aligning perfectly with the anticipated cycle peak. Related Reading: Machine Learning Algorithm Predicts Ethereum Price Will Cross $9,000, Here’s When From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s current price sits just above key support levels, with the weekly chart indicating a mean-based support of $97,094 and a critical resistance level at $117,058. The analyst advised monitoring these key price levels closely in the coming weeks, as movements below $110,000 could signal a bearish trend. BTC is currently holding just above this support floor after increased volatility. Despite this, on-chain metrics remain relatively healthy, with mining costs around $97,124 and no immediate signs of capitulation. Although recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have shown outflows, the overall market structure suggests a cautious optimism. To conclude, CryptoBirb notes that while the current sentiment may be mixed, the convergence of cycle mathematics, Halving events, and historical seasonality suggests that the market could be gearing up for a significant finale in the fourth quarter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com