The Bitcoin price showed some signs of recovery at the start of the week, trading above the $110,000 mark. This uptick follows two consecutive Fridays of major drops, igniting fears and uncertainty among investors. These concerns have been compounded by predictions from experts about a potential bear market on the horizon. Looming Bear Market Threat Market analyst Doctor Profit, known for his accurate forecasts regarding the recent Bitcoin price trajectory, has recently cast doubt on whether market makers will allow both retail and institutional investors to exit at more favorable prices after incurring losses. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Moves: Can It Repeat The 36,000% Rally ‘Anomaly’ From Last Cycle? In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), he suggested that the maximum bullish scenario for the Bitcoin price in the near-term could reach around $116,500, representing a 9% increase from its current levels. However, he emphasizes that a drop below $101,700 would breach what he terms the “magic bull market line,” effectively confirming a bear market. Profit advises caution, predicting a significant move that could push the Bitcoin price below this critical threshold, signaling the end of the bull run. Adding to the bearish sentiment, the Bitcoin price is currently hovering below the short-term holder realized price of $112,500. This figure represents the average entry point for short-term traders and buyers, many of whom are now facing losses. On-chain data compiled by the expert also indicates that these traders are likely to sell off their positions if the Bitcoin price dips between 5% and 10%, potentially intensifying short-term selling pressure. Challenging Times Ahead For Bitcoin Price Profit further elaborates on the market conditions, pointing out that current price movements are indicative of market makers liquidating both bullish and bearish positions. “Nothing goes down in a straight line,” he notes, suggesting that while the market could be in a bear market, it is essential to remain aware of short-term fluctuations. He argues that high-leverage traders must be wiped out on both sides before the market experiences its next significant downward movement. Related Reading: Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over? Analyst Sees Echoes Of 2021 The expert also warns that every brief rally is designed to mislead bullish traders and liquidate late bearish positions. The market makers’ strategy appears to involve pushing Bitcoin toward the $116,500 region to eliminate late bears and generate sufficient liquidity for another downward price adjustment, potentially leading to new local lows. Looking ahead, Doctor Profit predicts that such price movements will continue to recur in the coming weeks and months, creating a challenging environment for investors in the volatile digital asset market. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to experience an extensive price correction losing over 7% of its market value in the last month. The flagship cryptocurrency has struggled to regain its bullish form after setting a new all-time high leading to speculations of a potential market top. Interestingly, popular market analyst and the host of The Wolf of All Streets Podcast, Scott Melker has recently shared a market development that supports such bearish notions. Related Reading: Bitcoin CBD Heatmap Marks $95,500–$97,000 As Make-Or-Break Zone – Details Bitcoin Set For 26% Crash? In an X post on June 21, Scott Melker shares a cautionary insight on the Bitcoin market hinting at a bearish long-term outlook. The season analyst reports that data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s has now closed below the 50-day moving average (50 MA) on the daily trading chart, a development that last occurred two months ago when Bitcoin traded around $84,000. The 50MA is a commonly used technical indicator that represents the average closing price of an asset over the past 50 days. As a lagging indicator, it helps traders identify the prevailing market trend. When the price remains above the 50 MA, it typically signals a bullish trend, while a move below the 50 MA may indicate bearish momentum or a potential trend reversal. Interestingly, Melker notes that Bitcoin last lost the 50 MA as a support zone in early February trading around $100,000. However, the loss of this price floor triggered an immense selling pressure forcing Bitcoin into prolonged market correction to reach market low of $74,000 in April. Amidst the current market uncertainty, the recent daily price close below 50 MA strengthens bearish sentiments suggesting Bitcoin is due for another potential 26% crash. In that case, investors could expect a downside target of around $76,200. To invalidate such bearish projections, Bitcoin must continue to hold above the $100,000 resistance level, fueling the chances to retest the current all-time high, and perhaps re-enter price discovery mode. Related Reading: XRP On-Chain Activity Down 80% In 5 Months, Experts Argue Bullish/Bearish Implications Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $102,889 after a 1.43% decline in the last day. In tandem, the asset’s daily trading volume has crashed by 29.30% and is presently valued at $35.15 billion. With a market cap of $2.02 trillion, the “digital gold” continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency and fifth largest asset in the world. However, according to prominent market analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin may actually be slipping into bearish territory as similarly predicted by Scott Melker. Based on insights from the MVRV pricing bands, if the market lose the current support at $102,000, it opens the door to a potential decline toward $82,000. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown only sideways movement in the last day resulting in a minor price loss of 0.37%. In the larger timeframe, BTC remains in a strong consolidation range between $95,000-$98,000, putting majority of traders on alert for an immediate breakout. Meanwhile, a market analyst with X username Cryptododo7 has shared some insights on the current BTC market structure highlighting the influential key price levels in the short term. Related Reading: Bitcoin At Risk? Analyst Says Breaking This Price Level Could Spark Significant Volatility Bitcoin At Major Crossroads – Is A Crash To $76,000 Feasible? Bitcoin registered a new all-time high of $109,114 on January 20 as US President Donald Trump assumed office. However, the premier cryptocurrency has struggled to establish any robust bullish momentum since then, sliding into falling ranges of consolidation. Currently, BTC trades around $97,000 with no inkling on its future direction. According to Cryptododo7 in an X post on February 15, the asset’s descent from $109,000 has formed a strong downtrend resistance with $102,000 acting as the third point of resistance. In the case of any price breakout, the crypto analyst postulates Bitcoin will experience a significant decline if it fails to break past $102,000 presenting a serious opportunity to short the market. In that case, Cryptododo7 is banking on BTC to fall to $84,000 which represents a potential support zone where a substantial amount of buyers may step in. However, if the current Bitcoin position continues to weaken resulting in a steady price fall, the next critical level to watch is $91,800. Cryptododo7 warns that a price break below $91,800 would likely create a backrest scenario where prices temporarily retest this level as resistance before declining further. In such a case, Bitcoin could fall to $76,000 which aligns with historical double-top structures that often act as a strong support or reverse zone. Related Reading: Ethereum Indicator Flashes Buy Signal On The Weekly Chart – Potential For A Rebound? Market Bulls On Hold Until $108,400 Breakout In terms of resuming its bull run, BTC must show signs of reclaiming its previous highs of which $108,400 is likely the final confirmation of a bullish reversal. According to Cryptododo7, a successful price close above the $108,000 level on both a daily and weekly basis would invalidate all bearish predictions signaling a renewed uptrend, with potential for new price discoveries. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $97,593, following a 1.18% gain in the past week. However, daily trading volume is currently down at 45.53% and valued at $17.38 billion. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
The recent rejection at the $100,000 has prompted a wave of warnings from leading financial analysts, who caution that Bitcoin could be poised for a significant pullback toward the $70,000 region or, in some cases, even $60,000. Ali Martinez (@ali_charts), a crypto analyst, compiled the viewpoints of several market veterans on X , offering a multi-perspective take on the likelihood of an impending correction. Bitcoin Price Crash Incoming? One of the voices in this discussion is Tone Vays, a well-known trader who has expressed grave concerns about Bitcoin’s trajectory. Vays conveyed that Bitcoin trading below $95,000 is “very, very bad” as it heightens the likelihood of a correction to around $73,000. In a shared video, Vays elaborated, “We’re now opening the month day trading below $95,000, […] getting too close to the $92,000 range literally opens like Pandora’s box into a massive crash down to $73,000. Now, I’m not saying it’s going to crash $73,000. I’m saying the possibility has significantly increased that we can easily go to $73,000. You are sitting at the last line of support.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Reserve Idea Sparks Cautious Response From Japan PM: Report Peter Brandt, another prominent analyst, added to the growing concern by discussing the formation of a “broadening triangle” in Bitcoin’s price chart. According to Brandt, this pattern could potentially project a retracement toward the $70,000 zone. Although Brandt was careful to clarify that his statements are not definitive predictions, he emphasized the increased possibility of such a movement. “Hey trolls — this is not a prediction. Just always pointing out possibilities, not probabilities, not ‘certainties’. No screen shot is necessary, BTC right angled broadening triangle could project back into the $70,000s and a test of the parabolic modality,” Brandt stated. Contrasting with these bearish viewpoints, Fundstrat maintains a more optimistic long-term perspective, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025. However, Fundstrat’s Global Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton, acknowledges the potential for short-term volatility, suggesting that Bitcoin might experience a downswing to $60,000 before embarking on its ascent. In a video shared by Martinez, Fundstrat CEO Tom Lee elaborated on this outlook: “Bitcoin, one year from now, I think is something around $250,000. […] it is hyper volatile. People don’t like the volatility. Yeah, Mark Newton, our technician, thinks that the cycle of Bitcoin turns a little bit down early next year, so maybe Bitcoin gets to the $60,000s.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Greed: More Cooldown Needed For Bottom? Adding to the chorus of caution, Benjamin Cowen, CEO and Founder of Into The Cryptoverse, posits that Bitcoin’s price action could mirror that of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). According to Cowen, this alignment could precipitate a “flash crash” to $60,000, potentially coinciding with Donald Trump’s inauguration day. From an on-chain analysis standpoint, Martinez confirms the bearish possibilities. He notes that if Bitcoin falls below $93,806, the path to $70,085 becomes increasingly plausible, describing the area below as “open air all the way down to $70,085.” Martinez identifies the critical support zone between $97,041 and $93,806, emphasizing that failure to maintain these levels could trigger a sharp decline. He observes that market dynamics indicate some investors are preparing for such a downturn, evidenced by the transfer of over 33,000 BTC (valued at more than $3.23 billion) to exchanges in the past week. Additionally, profit-taking appears to be intensifying, with more than $7.17 billion in Bitcoin profits realized on December 23 alone. The proportion of Binance traders with open long positions on BTC has also decreased from 66.73% to 53.60%, suggesting a shift in market sentiment towards a more bearish stance. Ultimately, Martinez underscores the importance of Bitcoin reclaiming the $97,300 support zone to invalidate the bearish forecasts. “Bitcoin recently broke below one of its most significant support zones at $97,300. So, for the bearish outlook to be invalidated, BTC must reclaim this critical area of support and, more importantly, sustain a daily close above $100,000,” he states. Should Bitcoin manage to sustain a daily close above $100,000, Martinez posits the potential for a significant upswing, possibly reaching $168,500 based on the Mayer Multiple. However, the failure to do so leaves the door open for the predicted corrections to materialize. At press time, BTC traded at $96,905. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Onchain data service says there are five key indicators that may help investors determine if Bitcoin is nearing a local top. One of them is already flashing red.
Bitcoin dominance has notched a new yearly high amid a brutal Ethereum-led sell-off.
Analysts say Bitcoin could sink as low as $50,000, but strong macro conditions and an entrenched “buy the dip” mentality will quickly rebound BTC’s price.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the critical support level of $60,000, reaching a low of $57,914. Since Tuesday, Bitcoin has experienced a further 7% decline, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. Currently, market sentiment is shifting markedly towards the bearish side. Is A May 2021-Style Bitcoin Crash Looming? Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, has raised significant concerns regarding the pattern emerging in the Bitcoin market, reminiscent of the conditions that led to the dramatic crash of May 2021. In a detailed analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Kang highlighted the overlooked criticality of the current market dynamics. Kang stated, “Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts.” Related Reading: Longest Miner Capitulation Since 2022 Signals Potential Bitcoin Rally Ahead He noted the similarities in market conditions, particularly in terms of leveraged positions, which currently exceed $50 billion. “This figure does not include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is higher, but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs. 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market,” Kang elaborated. Kang also adjusted his projections for Bitcoin’s bottom, suggesting a steeper fall than earlier anticipated: “It’s likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40ks.” He warned that such a pullback could significantly damage the market, necessitating a few months of consolidation and a downtrend before any reversal to an upward trend might be conceivable. In a dialogue with Alex Krüger, a well-known macro and crypto analyst, the discussion explored the intricacies of open interest (OI) in the derivatives market, a crucial aspect of understanding market sentiment and directional biases. Krüger pointed out, “Much of that OI is not directional though,” suggesting a more complex market behavior than straightforward long and short positions. Related Reading: British Mega Bank Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000, Here’s When Responding, Kang clarified the composition of OI, saying, “Each unit of OI is one long + one short. Even if there are basis trade shorts on the short leg, there’s a directional long on the other end. So yes… less directional shorts.” The conversation further delved into whether derivatives traders are delta neutral, which affects market stability. Krüger queried about market maker positions, and Kang responded, “I can assure you that there are not many market makers in the OI that are delta neutral long perps and short spot paying funding/borrow on both ends for a negative carry trade.” What Happened In May 2021? This ongoing discussion among experts reflects a deepening concern over the potential for a repeat of the May 2021 crash. During that period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted dramatically following a peak of around $64,000 in mid-April 2021. By the end of June, it had lost about 56% of its value. This crash was precipitated by a mix of factors, including regulatory crackdowns in China, environmental concerns voiced by influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a resulting cascade of panic selling among both retail and institutional investors. In retrospect, the May 2021 downturn was characterized by a rapid shift in investor sentiment, driven by external shocks and exacerbated by the high levels of leverage in the market. Today, similar conditions could be forming according to Kang, with high leverage and extended periods without significant price corrections, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of another severe downturn. At press time, BTC traded at $58,736. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com