Bitcoin has recently seen an uptick in retail investor activity following months of subdued participation, according to a report by CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy. The analyst highlighted this in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, disclosing how this return in retail demand could be one of the signs of a bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity Bitcoin Retail Activity Returns After 4-Month Decline The CryptoQuant analyst noted that on-chain transaction volumes of up to $10,000—a key indicator of retail investment—have increased by approximately 13% in the past 30 days. This marks a shift after four months, during which smaller investors were largely inactive. caueconomy wrote: Note that in the last 4 months we have seen a decrease in the activity of these small investors, while whales maintained a high amount of transactions and absorption of coins. The analyst further explained that the increase in small investor activity is typically more sensitive to market sentiment and news than fundamental factors. Additionally, it provides an early indicator of capital flows into the Bitcoin network. As mentioned by caueconomy, this rise in retail demand, which hasn’t been observed since March, could signal the beginning of a trend toward “lower risk aversion” among non-institutional market participants. Notably, this increase in small investor activity comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price has seen constant increase in the past week, with the cryptocurrency recently attempting to reclaim the $70,000 mark. An Outlook On BTC’s Price—72% Rally Next? While retail demand appears to be returning, Bitcoin faces a minor retracement after its recent attempt to break the $70,000 price mark earlier today. The crypto asset reached a high of $69,431 earlier today but has since fallen by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, bringing the current price down to $66,951. Despite this slight dip, market sentiment among analysts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential. One notable analyst, Javon Marks, recently took to X to express his bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Marks highlighted a potential 72% price increase that could push Bitcoin to $116,000 or higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales ‘Grew Substantially’ During Last Dip, Data Shows Large-Holder Accumulation According to his analysis, Bitcoin has been working around a key price level of $67,559. Despite the recent pullback, several bullish patterns—such as Hidden Bullish Divergences—suggest that Bitcoin may soon break above this level. If Bitcoin successfully crosses this threshold, it could increase price movement toward $116,652. Back to the basics for #Bitcoin (BTC) again and a >72% move to $116,000+ still looks likely ⚡️! In this setup, we see Bitcoin working on a key level at $67,559, after a monumental, more than 333% climb to reach + break above it before pulling back since March. Now, during this… https://t.co/iocZrLlRGx pic.twitter.com/XCrjd56w3W — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 21, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on an upward trend in recent weeks, showing positive price movements that appear quite appealing to investors. According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, a key metric, “active address momentum,” paints a bullish picture for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bull Rally Hinges On $57K Support Level—Here’s Why It Matters Active Address Momentum Signals Upward Market Structure Active addresses represent the number of unique addresses conducting transactions on the Bitcoin network, providing insights into network activity and investor engagement. By applying a 30-day moving average (30DMA) and a 365-day moving average (365DMA) to this indicator, the CryptoQuant analyst could assess the network’s growing momentum. The analyst emphasized that the 30DMA has sharply risen recently and is closing in on the 365DMA. If a “golden cross” occurs, where the 30DMA surpasses the 365DMA, it could signal a further bullish trend for Bitcoin, dent reveals. The CryptoQuant analyst added that Bitcoin has seen high transaction volumes since the second half of the year, supporting increased network activity. While the current upward momentum is encouraging, the analyst also warned of potential volatility due to a “rising wedge” formation in Bitcoin’s price chart—a pattern that could lead to significant price swings if the wedge continues to tighten. Bitcoin Rally To $90,000 In Sight? Bitcoin’s recent price performance has added to the optimism among investors. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has surged by over 10%, and it has continued its upward trajectory, rising by an additional 1.98% in the past 24 hours to trade at $68,708 at the time of writing. This upward movement has helped Bitcoin break through a major resistance zone on its daily chart, sparking predictions of even higher prices. One notable prediction came from crypto analyst Javon Marks, who recently shared his outlook on X. Marks highlighted that Bitcoin has broken out of a “descending broadening wedge” pattern. Statistically, this pattern suggests that when the resisting line is broken, the price objective is reached in 81% of cases. Related Reading: Massive Bitcoin Move Imminent: 7 Key Reasons Behind The Bullish Outlook In Bitcoin’s case, Marks believes that this breakout could push the price of Bitcoin to a range between $90,000 and even more than $96,000. #Bitcoin (BTC) is now broken out of the displayed ‘descending broadening wedge’ pattern and statistics from this type of pattern states that in 81% of cases, the pattern’s price objective is reached when the resisting line is broken. Bitcoin’s Price Objective: $90,000-$96,000+ https://t.co/lPZZtJm7pi pic.twitter.com/hudApLSlDj — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 17, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s price rejection at $68,500 and the record high use of leverage could be signs that BTC is in for a sharp correction.
Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility and uncertainty after falling below the $60,000 mark. This dip has sparked mixed reactions among investors. Some view it as a potential bear trap, indicating that the price may soon rally, while others fear that the market could be headed for a deeper correction. Despite the conflicting sentiments, critical data […]
After weeks of significant volatility and uncertainty, Bitcoin is currently at a turning point. The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, has led to erratic price movements, causing traders to navigate a landscape filled with anxiety. Despite this tumultuous environment, key data from CryptoQuant indicates that […]
After weeks of massive volatility, Bitcoin faces heightened risk after failing to break above a key resistance level of around $64,000. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates, many investors and traders anticipated a full-blown rally throughout October. However, it appears that the expected surge may not materialize just yet. Related Reading: Dogecoin Analyst Expects A ‘Multi-Year Bullish Breakout’ – 200% Surge Potential Top crypto analyst Carl Runefelt has shared his insights on the current situation, emphasizing the significance of the $64,000 resistance. Breaking past this crucial level is critical for Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum and fuel a rally into Q4 2024. Bitcoin could struggle to sustain upward momentum without this breakout, leaving the market vulnerable to further downside. The next few days will be critical for Bitcoin’s price action as traders and analysts closely watch how the market responds. With Q4 underway, Bitcoin’s performance could set the tone for the broader crypto market. As investors brace for the market’s next move, the outcome of Bitcoin’s battle with the $64,000 level will likely determine whether the rally continues or stalls. Bitcoin Analyst Predicts Sub-$60K Dip After Bitcoin’s recent failed breakout attempt, the cryptocurrency is trading at a critical juncture at around $62,000. This level will likely determine whether BTC can reclaim momentum and push past local highs of $66,000 or drop further to $60,000 or even lower. Analysts and investors are growing increasingly uncertain as the bullish sentiment that dominated the past few weeks is beginning to fade. Now, fear and hesitation are creeping back into the market. Top crypto analyst Carl Runefelt recently shared a detailed technical analysis on X, highlighting the precarious situation Bitcoin finds itself in. According to Runefelt, Bitcoin’s price structure has become fragile after two failed attempts to break through the key resistance level. He notes that BTC’s price dropped below important support levels after each failure, which could lead to further downsides. In his analysis, Runefelt sets a price target of $60,000, marking a 5% dip from current levels if Bitcoin cannot reclaim its previous momentum. He warns that if Bitcoin fails to hold critical support at $60,000, it could signal the beginning of a deeper correction. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Path To New Highs: Analyst Eyes $160 As Critical Breakpoint As market sentiment shifts from bullish to fearful, the next few days will determine whether Bitcoin can regain its strength or face a prolonged decline. Investors are watching closely, preparing for the market’s next move. BTC Price Action: Key Levels To Watch Bitcoin is trading at $62,421 after failing to break above the daily 200 moving average (MA) at $63,538. The price recently surged 25%, only to experience a sharp 10% dip, putting BTC at a critical juncture. Bitcoin faces serious risk in the coming weeks if it does not break past local supply levels around $66,000. The daily 200 MA has been a critical resistance level, and without reclaiming it soon, bearish momentum could take hold. If Bitcoin cannot recover and break through this level, analysts expect a deeper correction down to $57,500. This area is considered a crucial demand zone that could provide support, but a failure to hold above current levels would signal a more significant retracement. Related Reading: Can SUI Fall To $1.40? On-Chain Data Exposes Declining Demand Bulls must push the price back above the daily 200 MA in the short term to avoid further downside risk. The next few days will be critical for determining whether BTC can stabilize or faces continued downward pressure. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has been navigating a turbulent landscape of volatility and erratic price action since the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut 20 days ago. This pivotal moment has left analysts and investors on edge, with many anticipating a significant rally for BTC in the coming weeks. Favorable macroeconomic conditions combined with the approaching halving […]
Bitcoin has recently faced a 10% correction since last Friday, but it is now holding above a crucial support level that could pave the way for a price rally. Analysts and investors eagerly watch the market, hoping BTC will regain momentum. With the potential for increased demand on the horizon, many are sharing valuable insights […]
Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 for the past two weeks, holding strong as the broader crypto market bulges. This steady performance is fueling optimism among traders and investors alike. According to key data from CryptoQuant, short-term holders are now selling for profit, leading to a notable decrease in BTC supply. This reduction in available BTC […]
Bitcoin has surged past the critical $65,000 resistance level following several days of bullish price action and growing optimism after last week’s interest rate cuts. This impressive move has excited analysts and investors, who are now speculating on even higher prices in the coming weeks. The recent rally, fueled by renewed confidence in the market, […]
Bitcoin’s significant drop in capital inflows over the last six months is contributing to the current price consolidation.
Bitcoin is at a crucial point after several days of recovery and consolidation. On August 5, it experienced a sharp capitulation event, with the price dropping to a monthly low of $49,577. While some investors remain skeptical, believing Bitcoin hasn’t reached its bottom yet, key data from CryptoQuant suggests that the worst might be over. […]
Bitcoin is now in a consolidation phase after weeks of significant selling pressure and fear throughout the market. The price has dropped over 19% from local highs in late August and is currently testing resistance around $58,000. Despite this recent downturn, the broader outlook remains optimistic. Related Reading: Are BTC Whales Preparing for A Big […]
Bitcoin futures CME gaps have been filled by price every time over the past quarter, and over the weekend, another gap was formed near $54,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating through a storm of fear and uncertainty, with recent volatile price action causing significant shakeouts among traders and investors. Since August 24, BTC has experienced a sharp retrace of over 12%, plunging below the $60,000 mark—a crucial psychological level that often serves as a pivot point for both price action and […]
On Monday, the Bitcoin price fell as low as $57,100, continuing its decline from a one-month high of $65,000 on August 25th. However, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming decision to cut interest rates could spell further trouble for the largest cryptocurrency on the market. September And Bitcoin Price Forecast According to a recent report […]
XRP price is mirroring a 2021 bullish chart fractal that preceded a 500% rebound.
Bitcoin’s price surged to a new one-month high near $67,000 as a variety of bullish factors converged to push cryptocurrencies higher.
Bitcoin’s price surged to a new one-month high near $67,000 as a variety of bullish factors converged to push cryptocurrencies higher.
With Germany’s “forced selling” over and Mt. Gox repayments all but priced in, analysts look to an easing macro environment as a driver for Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.
On Saturday, Bitcoin experienced a robust rally, climbing above $58,250. Despite this upward movement, it was unable to sustain the momentum and close above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This led to the formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on Sunday, signaling potential downside momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $56,000, positioning it at a critical juncture in terms of technical analysis and market sentiment. Sina G, the COO and co-founder of 21st Capital, provided a breakdown of the factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory today, particularly highlighting recent declines and evaluating its undervalued state through sophisticated metrics. Starting with a historical overview, Sina pointed out that Bitcoin had seen a drastic 26% decline from a March peak of $73,000, settling around $56,000 in recent weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Critic Calls ‘Institutional Demand’ A Myth Following Recent Price Slump This sharp decrease has been attributed to several macroeconomic and sector-specific factors. According to him, Bitcoin’s fall from the $73,000 peak in March to $56,000 aligns with historical bull market corrections, which often see significant yet temporary retracements. The influence of Bitcoin ETFs has been pivotal. Initially, these ETFs contributed significantly to the price surge from $16,000 to $73,000, as investors engaged heavily in a buy-the-rumor, buy-the-news strategy. “Up to mid-march ETF flows were very strong and the market moved up. Since then ETFs slowed down and bankruptcy outflows took over, causing a weak price action all the way down to $56K. A notable recent impact on Bitcoin’s price has been the selling activity of the German government, which disposed of Bitcoin seized in 2013 from the pirated content platform Movie2k.to. “The government’s decision to liquidate approximately 10,000 coins across three transactions coincided directly with significant price drops on specific dates in June and July,” he noted. This selloff contributed to a steep 24% crash in June and July, exacerbated by the large volume of Bitcoin introduced into the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $54,000: Top-5 Reasons Is Bitcoin Undervalued? To address whether Bitcoin is currently undervalued, Sina turned to the Volatility-Adjusted Price Level Index (VPLI), a proprietary metric developed by 21st Capital. “Currently, our VPLI is at -3.57, which indicates that Bitcoin is significantly below its fair price,” Sina stated. He further clarified that historically, a VPLI score of -10 corresponds with bear market bottoms, placing the current reading in a context that suggests Bitcoin is potentially undervalued. “This puts us in the 41th percentile of values – i.e., Bitcoin has only spent 41% of below this VPLI reading (most of which during the bear markets). So the risk-reward balance is favorable,” he added. Looking forward, Sina highlighted two critical short-term indicators that could dictate Bitcoin’s immediate price movements: the continuation of Bitcoin sales by the German government and the behavior of the perpetual swaps funding rate. “Recently, the funding rate has been negative, which is typically a bearish signal. This suggests that many traders are taking short positions, anticipating further declines, which paradoxically might indicate that the market is close to reaching a bottom,” he concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $55,835. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says that multiple onchain metrics point to a “sign of weakness” in Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin is experiencing a significant decline today, dipping below the $64,000 mark to a low of $63,564. This drop represents a 2.5% decrease in the last 24 hours and an overall 12% decline over the past two weeks. Amidst this downward trend, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is not only maintaining his bullish stance on Bitcoin but actively encouraging investment, advocating a strategy to ‘buy the dip.’ His optimism and advice are deeply rooted in an analysis of global economic conditions and central bank policies, which he believes will favor cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Buy The Bitcoin Dip? Hayes’s insights draw attention to the aggressive monetary policies implemented by central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. These policies, including rapid interest rate hikes—the most aggressive since the 1980s—were initiated in response to rising inflation in the United States. The hikes have had a profound impact on the bond market, particularly affecting US Treasuries (USTs), which saw a decrease in prices due to the rising yields. Japanese banks, in search of yield amid domestically near-zero interest rates, had heavily invested in these USTs. Related Reading: 3 Reasons To Invest In Ethereum, 1 To Stay Bitcoin-Only: Bitwise CIO The strategy backfired when US rates rose, leading to significant paper losses for these banks. Hayes specifically points to the situation with Norinchukin Bank, which was compelled to sell off $63 billion in foreign bonds, mostly USTs, to reduce these losses. This scenario underscores a broader trend among Japanese banks, which may need to continue offloading USTs and other foreign bonds as they adjust to the new economic realities imposed by US monetary policy. Hayes argues that these developments have critical implications for the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin. He notes that the responses by central banks to stabilize financial markets—such as the Federal Reserve’s decision to provide a blanket backstop in March 2023 following a series of bank failures—indirectly benefit cryptocurrencies. This intervention led to a surge in Bitcoin’s price, reinforcing its status as a viable alternative investment during times of financial instability. Moreover, Hayes points out the operational details of the FIMA repo facility, which was expanded by the Fed to bolster liquidity. He explains, “A rise in the FIMA repo facility indicates an addition of dollar liquidity to the global money markets. Y’all know what that means for Bitcoin and crypto … which is why I thought it necessary to alert readers about another avenue of stealth money printing.” This mechanism allows central banks to exchange their holdings of USTs for dollars, increasing the dollar supply without flooding the market with bonds and potentially driving up yields. Related Reading: German Government’s Bitcoin Dump Surpasses $195M As Selling Spree Persists The implications for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are profound, according to Hayes. He suggests that as central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan, might use these facilities to manage their exposure to USTs, the resultant increase in dollar liquidity could drive investors towards cryptocurrencies. This movement is seen as a hedge against potential inflation and currency debasement resulting from these monetary expansions. Hayes vividly describes the effect of these macroeconomic maneuvers on the crypto market: “Just as many began to wonder where the next jolt of dollar liquidity would come from, the Japanese banking system dropped Origami cranes composed of crisply folded dollar bills upon the laps of crypto investors. This is just another pillar of the crypto bull market. The supply of dollars must increase to maintain the current Pax Americana dollar-based filthy financial system.” In a rallying call to the crypto community, Hayes concludes, “Say it with me, ‘Shikata Ga Nai’, and buy the fucking dip!” Through this declaration, he underscores his belief that despite the volatile market conditions, the underlying economic and monetary developments are creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin’s growth. His analysis suggests that savvy investors should view the current price drops as buying opportunities, given the broader economic backdrop that he believes will continue to propel interest and investment in cryptocurrencies. At press time, BTC traded at $64,159. Featured image from Forkast News, chart from TradingView.com
In a technical analysis shared by noted crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz on the social platform X, there appears to be a significant bullish sentiment building around Bitcoin, particularly if it surpasses the crucial $72,000 mark. Olszewicz, leveraging both the Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci extensions, illustrates a scenario where breaking this key resistance level could catapult Bitcoin towards a target of $91,500. Here’s How Bitcoin Could Skyrocket To $91,500 The analysis utilizes the Ichimoku Cloud, a complex technical indicator that provides insights into the market’s momentum, trend direction, and potential areas of support and resistance over different time frames. Currently, Bitcoin’s price action is depicted as being in a bullish phase, situated above the cloud. This positioning above the cloud is traditionally viewed as a bullish signal, suggesting a strong uptrend with robust support levels formed by the cloud’s lower boundaries. In the Ichimoku setup, the conversion line (Tenkan-sen) and the baseline (Kijun-sen) cross occasionally, providing buy or sell signals based on their intersection relative to the cloud. As of the latest chart, the conversion line recently crossed above the baseline, reinforcing the bullish outlook depicted by the cloud’s positioning. Related Reading: Mt. Gox Bitcoin Transfer: CryptoQuant Analyzes Potential Market Effects Of The $9.4B Movement Adding another layer to the technical narrative, Fibonacci extension levels have been plotted from a significant low at $56,485.87 up to a high, providing potential targets and resistance levels. The 0.5 Fibonacci extension level is marked at $63,727.40, already surpassed by the current price trajectory. The 1.0 extension finds itself at $71,897.29, closely aligning with the analyst’s noted pivotal level of $72,000. Beyond this, the 1.618 extension at $83,456.87 represents a lucrative first price target, while the ultimate 2.0 extension looms at $91,513.53. A key observation is the volume profile, which shows a declining trend in trading volume. This decreasing volume can often indicate a period of accumulation, as less selling pressure allows prices to stabilize and potentially build a base for an upward breakout. The declining volume trend line underpins the consolidation phase seen in recent months, suggesting that a sharp movement could be imminent once accumulation concludes. Related Reading: Whales Push Bitcoin Into Narrow Consolidation Range: What To Expect Next Olszewicz’s emphatic remark, “BTC: when this baby hits $72k you’re going to see some serious shit,” underscores the high stakes associated with this resistance level. This is not merely a technical observation but a signal to the market that once $72,000 is decisively broken, the path to much higher levels becomes increasingly probable. Such a breakout would likely activate a flurry of trading activity, as both retail and institutional investors might see it as a confirmation of a sustained upward trend, potentially pushing the price towards the $91,500 mark indicated by the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. At press time, BTC traded at $67,783. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
In his latest video update on YouTube, renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the complex dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s halving events, articulating a compelling case for why the market has yet to fully price in the halving which took place on April 19. Drawing on historical data and patterns, Rekt Capital provided an in-depth analysis of the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements post-halving, suggesting that substantial growth phases still lie ahead. Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In Rekt Capital began by revisiting the historical impact of Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the block reward received by miners by half. This constriction in supply, if demand remains constant or increases, typically leads to a significant price increase. “The Bitcoin halving is not priced in,” Rekt Capital asserted, pointing out that each previous halving led to a rally that not only reached but also surpassed previous all-time highs. “The halving every four years always precedes a fantastic surge in Bitcoin’s price action towards new all-time highs,” he noted. This consistent pattern forms a compelling narrative that the post-halving market dynamics are predictable to a degree, yet complex enough to remain partially unanticipated by the market. “Two phases remain in the cycle: The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation phase (red) and the Parabolic Rally phase (green),” he stated. Related Reading: Parabolic Rally In The Making? Bitcoin Regains $70,000 As Traders’ Paper Profits Collapse To 3% Focusing on the reaccumulation phase that traditionally follows each halving, Rekt Capital highlighted that this phase typically lasts about 160 days. During this period, the market often sees a consolidation of price before a breakout leads to a parabolic rally. “We are currently in a reaccumulation period again in this cycle. This is post-halving reaccumulation,” he stated, emphasizing the significance of this phase in setting the stage for the next bull run. The analyst elaborated on the nature of these cycles, noting deviations in the current trends compared to past cycles. “This cycle is exhibiting an accelerated rate, with new all-time highs appearing 260 days prior to the halving, a first in Bitcoin’s history,” he explained. Such deviations suggest that while historical patterns provide a roadmap, each cycle can introduce new dynamics that affect market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bargains: Expert Reveals Ideal Buy Zones For Maximum Gain Rekt Capital did not overlook the potential risks and market corrections that could occur. He warned of the initial rejection often seen after reaching the high range of post-halving prices, a trend noted in previous cycles. “Every time we’ve seen an initial attempt to get to the range high resistance after the halving, that first attempt after the halving is one that rejects,” he explained. This observation is crucial for investors expecting immediate gains post-halving, as it tempers overly optimistic expectations with a realistic view of possible short-term retracements. The analyst also addressed the issue of diminishing returns in successive cycles, a factor that seasoned Bitcoin investors watch closely. While each cycle’s peak has historically been higher than the last, the rate of growth has slowed. “If this was a one-to-one extension from what we saw in the previous cycle, getting us to $250,000 might be unrealistic this time around, and we are probably looking at a more subdued increase,” he predicted. Nonetheless, Rekt Capital maintained a bullish outlook for the long term, suggesting that while the explosive growth rates of early cycles might not repeat, the overall upward trajectory of Bitcoin’s price post-halving remains intact. “This is going to be the most parabolic phase of the cycle where we see those gains come very quickly in a short space of time,” he concluded, affirming the significant opportunities that lie ahead for Bitcoin investors. At press time, BTC traded at $68,561. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data analysis that sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest insights highlight a period he describes as “Quiet and Trending,” suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side pressures and shifts in volatility. Bitcoin Follows The Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern Since December, Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over 1.5 million BTC being sold. “Around 30% of this came out of GBTC, but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,” Check explains. Despite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements might imply. A striking aspect of Check’s analysis is the transformation in Bitcoin’s volatility profile. “The overall realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,” states Check. This trend indicates a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early years. Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s volatility: “What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!” He posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull run, rather than nearing its end. Related Reading: Most Important Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon? A critical tool in Check’s analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases. According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0 and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. “Only when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,” Check notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions. Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to $57k, Check observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability of short-term holders. “The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a top-heavy market.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Rally Over? Top Analysts Predict Imminent Price Corrections He further highlights that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands. Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart comparison of Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility against top-performing US stocks, showing that Bitcoin’s volatility is well within a manageable range. Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the “out sized performance of the Magnificent-7,” which is counterbalanced by the poorer performance of the other components. By highlighting the structural aspects of the current “Quiet and Trending” market phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial asset. He concludes, “Overall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks fairly structured, following stair-stepping rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that can lead to instability.” At press time, BTC traded at $66,288. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
In his latest technical analysis, veteran crypto analyst Christopher Inks offers a detailed look at the current Bitcoin market structure through a comprehensive chart analysis. The chart, recently shared on X, shows Bitcoin’s price movements alongside several key technical indicators and levels that could signal a potential reversal from its bearish trend. The analyst illustrates Bitcoin’s price action with daily candlesticks over the past few months, pinpointing significant support (S1, S2) and resistance (R1, R2) levels. As of press time, Bitcoin traded at around the $63,000 mark, encapsulated by two descending trend lines which represent a bearish market structure. The Bottom Signal For Bitcoin “We still want to see a breakout above the noted level to signal a break in the bearish market structure that began at the ATH,” Inks stated. This level is of paramount importance because it serves as a junction of multiple technical elements: the daily pivot point, the upper descending green resistance line, and the two-month range equilibrium. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Nearing Historic Lows – What This Means For BTC Price According to Inks, “an impulsive breakout and close above the daily pivot/descending green resistance/2-month range EQ confluence area will signal that the low is likely in.” This suggests that overcoming this barrier could herald the end of the bearish market structure that commenced from the all-time high. If this resistance breaks, the next major resistance is located at $65,541. Afterwards, $68,000 could be on the cards. “Breaking above this level breaks the bearish market structure from March 13th,” according to Inks. Then, R1 at $69,000 and R2 at around $78,000 could be the next targets. On the downside, the most crucial support is at $56,522. It represents the lower boundary that Bitcoin needs to maintain to prevent a new low, which would exacerbate the bearish sentiment. Related Reading: US Mega Banks JP Morgan And Wells Fargo Unveil Bitcoin Exposure As BTC Drops To $60,000 Inks articulates the importance of this support, noting, “If we can print a higher low now, which would require a breakout above the $65.541 level without printing a new low below $56,522, then that would really add support for the idea that the bottom is in and a new ATH is incoming.” This statement underlines the necessity for Bitcoin to hold above this support to avoid further declines and stabilize within its current range. If BTC breaks below the pivotal support, the price could be headed below $56,000 (S1) and $50,90 (S2). Notably, the analysis is supported by a variety of technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering around the neutral 50 mark, suggests a balancing act between bullish and bearish forces. The RSI’s position indicates that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential upward movement if bullish signals strengthen. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) currently shows that the MACD line is below the signal line, a traditional bearish sign. However, the proximity of these lines also hints at a possible upcoming bullish crossover, should the momentum shift. The Stochastic RSI also indicates potential for movement in either direction but is particularly useful for identifying when Bitcoin might be entering overbought or oversold territories, which are critical for predicting short-term price reversals. Inks also commented on the market’s dynamics, stating, “The positives of the range are that supply has continued to decrease throughout the bearish market structure.” This observation suggests that diminishing supply, paired with maintaining key support levels, could help stabilize and potentially increase Bitcoin’s price. At press time, BTC traded at $62,902. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has experienced a notable resurgence in its bullish momentum, with the Bitcoin price reclaiming the crucial $61,000 threshold. This recovery follows a week-long downtrend that led to a 20% drop to $56,000 on Wednesday. As the bullish momentum returns, the possibility of further testing upper resistance levels and reclaiming previously lost price levels grows stronger. Bitcoin Bulls Eye $68,000 According to market expert Justin Bennett, a recovery of the $61,000 resistance level would open up potential areas such as $67,000 to $68,000. However, at the present moment, this level continues to pose a significant resistance. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Bank Analysts Sound Warning Alarm: Bitcoin Price Can Still Drop To $50,000 Analyzing the recent correction in the Bitcoin price, analyst Crypto Con suggests that the market correction was necessary for the long-term price trajectory. The full retest of the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support at $56,700 and the return to indicator support zones, such as the Directional Movement Index, indicate a healthy price consolidation. In addition to the technical indicators, on-chain and market data analytics firm CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, highlights the current bullish sentiment. According to their data, whales accumulated a significant amount of Bitcoin, totaling 47,000 BTC, within the past 24 hours. This increased accumulation by large investors further bolsters the positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin Price Poised For Bullish Surge Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has provided further bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price, suggesting that recent corrections have resulted in the grabbing of leverage longs liquidity. In addition, the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI)on the 5-day chart is on the verge of crossing into bullish territory. This occurrence has historically been followed by an upward price movement in Bitcoin, leading to higher highs. Such a pattern has the potential to fuel renewed investor confidence and attract further buying pressure. Related Reading: Why This Crypto Bull Run Might Not Live Up To The Past: Analyst Another positive signal highlighted by Titan of Crypto is the recent buy signal generated by the Supertrend indicator, as seen in the chart below. This technical tool helps identify trends in an asset’s price movement. The buy signal, which occurred just three months ago, implies that Bitcoin may still have significant room for growth before reaching its cycle top. According to the analyst, historical data suggests that the average duration from the buy signal to the cycle top is approximately 19 months, indicating the potential for a sustained upward trend. Currently trading at $61,600, Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of 4.7% in the last 24 hours alone. It remains to be seen if BTC will successfully break above resistance levels, while also challenging the ability of previously retested support levels to withstand potential future downtrends. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
In the early US hours of Monday, Bitcoin witnessed a significant surge, with its price climbing above the $72,000 mark. The ascent, marked by a more than 4.5% increase within a mere five-hour window from below $69,500 to an intra-day high of $72,579, can be attributed to a confluence of factors that have stirred the crypto market. #1 Strong Bitcoin Spot Demand The rally appears to be fueled by robust demand in the Bitcoin spot market, hinting at the potential sustainability of the move. Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) noted the healthy market dynamics, stating on X, “Funding rates still looking solid. Healthy reset, price slowly grinding up. That’s what we want and how we want to keep it. If longs start aping again while spot bid stops, then that will end up in another flush at some point. For now, all good.” Related Reading: 12 Days Until Bitcoin Halving: Why $100,000 Isn’t Much Further Away In tandem with the rising spot prices, data from Coinglass reveals that $40.7 million in BTC shorts were liquidated today, further propelling the price upwards. #2 BTC Halving The imminence of the next Bitcoin halving, slated to occur roughly 12 days from now on April 20, has also probably played a pivotal role. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a pre-halving price retraction followed by a significant rally leading into the event. The halving will reduce the Bitcoin reward from approximately 900 coins per day to 450 coins. Skybridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci shared his insights with CNBC recently, highlighting the unpriced nature of the upcoming halving and its potential to further drive Bitcoin’s price. “They’re now saying that the halving is priced in. I don’t believe that. I think Bitcoin has a lot more to go here,” he stated. At current prices, roughly $65 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows per day are needed to buy up the daily mined supply. In 2.5 weeks, that’s only $32.5 million. #3 BTC Follows Gold The correlation between Bitcoin and gold, both considered safe-haven assets, is another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price movement. Gold’s strong opening this week, reaching a new all-time high of $2.253, has been mirrored by Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Gold enthusiast Peter Schiff and crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe have both remarked on the positive correlation between the two assets, suggesting a shared momentum amid economic uncertainties. Gold bug Peter Schiff commented via X: “It’s been a volatile Sunday night for gold. After an early $27 sell off, it rallied over $45, hitting a new record high above $2,348. This is an early stage of a major repricing of gold to reflect much higher future inflation. It’s a warning that monetary policy is too loose.” Related Reading: $115-Million Bitcoin Whale Wakes Up From 10-Year Slumber – What’s Next? Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe remarked: “There we go. Gold opening up with a big new upwards candle and Bitcoin is back to $71,000. Given the strength on commodities and the current price action of Bitcoin, I suspect we’ll see a test of the all-time high coming up.” #4 Strong Weekly Close The significance of Bitcoin’s weekly candle close was highlighted by CRG, a renowned analyst, who pointed to it as a contributor to the rally. The ability of Bitcoin’s price to close sustainably above its 2021 high for the second consecutive week signals a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Great weekly close Fresh all time highs this week Source: my plums pic.twitter.com/wyxwomdDjZ — CRG (@MacroCRG) April 8, 2024 #5 Hong Kong Readies For Spot ETF Launch Finally, the anticipation of the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong may have injected optimism into the market. Reports indicate that major Chinese asset managers, such as Harvest Fund and Southern Fund, managing assets worth over $230 billion and $280 billion, respectively, are positioning themselves through Hong Kong subsidiaries to enter the Bitcoin ETF market, awaiting regulatory approval. #6 Extra: The “Ethena-Effect” Ethena Labs has started purchasing BTC as part of a cash-and-carry trade in order to create a “safer” USDe synthetic dollar product for users. The move is being critically observed by the crypto community. Ethena now holds more than half a billion in BTC hedged across Binance, OKX and Deribit Ready for the halvening ₿ pic.twitter.com/auquK59DfY — Seraphim (@MacroMate8) April 8, 2024 At press time, BTC traded at $72,103. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin market has witnessed a significant downturn, with prices plummeting below the $66,000 mark. This abrupt -5.6% price movement can be attributed to four major factors: a long liquidation event, a rising US Dollar Index (DXY), profit-taking by investors, and spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. #1 Long Liquidations The main force leading to today’s downturn in Bitcoin’s price was a significant deleveraging event characterized by an unusually high level of long liquidations. Before the downturn, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) Weighted Funding Rate was unusually high, indicating that leveraged traders were paying premiums to maintain long positions in anticipation of future price increases. This optimism, however, made the market vulnerable to sudden corrections. Related Reading: Hedge Fund Manager Predicts When Bitcoin Price Will Reach $150,000 Crypto analyst Ted, known as @tedtalksmacro on X (formerly Twitter), remarked, “Today was the largest long liquidation event since the 19th March.” He further elaborated on the effects of this correction by noting, “Nice reset in overall positioning today, even on just a 5% drop lower for Bitcoin… Next leg higher is loading I think.” This comment highlights the severity of the liquidations and suggests a potential rebound or restructuring within the market as it stabilizes. Coinglass data reveals that over the last 24 hours, 120,569 traders were liquidated, amounting to $395.53 million in total liquidations, with $311.97 million being long positions. Bitcoin-specific long liquidations were at $87.42 million. #2 DXY Puts Pressure On Bitcoin With 105.037, the DXY closed at its highest level since November yesterday, evidencing a strengthening US dollar. Given Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the DXY, the stronger dollar might have shifted investor preference towards safer assets, moving away from riskier investments like Bitcoin. This correlation stems from the global market’s risk sentiment, where a rising DXY often signals a shift towards safer investments, detracting from riskier assets like Bitcoin. However, analyst Coosh Alemzadeh provided a counter perspective, suggesting through a Wyckoff redistribution schema that despite the DXY’s recent uptick, the next move could favor risk assets, potentially including Bitcoin. #DXY ⬆️4 weeks in a row/broke out of its downtrend so consensus is that a new uptrend is starting yet risk assets are consolidating at ATH Next move ⬆️in risk assets on deck IMO pic.twitter.com/u6ORa76vkj — “Coosh” Alemzadeh (@AlemzadehC) April 2, 2024 #3 Profit Taking By Investors Profit-taking by investors has also played a significant role in the recent price adjustments. The Bitcoin on-chain analysis platform Checkonchain reported a spike in profit-taking activities. Related Reading: Start Selling Bitcoin When This Happens, This Quant Says Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst, Checkmatey, shared insights via X, stating, “The classic Bitcoin MVRV Ratio hits conditions we characterize as ‘heated, but not yet overcooked’. MVRV = above +0.5sd but below +1sd. This indicates that the average BTC holder is sitting on a significant unrealized profit, prompting an uptick in spending.” The profit-taking coincided with Bitcoin reaching a peak of $73,000, marking a cycle high in profit realization with over 352,000 BTC sold for profit. This selling behavior is typical in bull markets but plays a crucial role in creating resistance levels at local price tops. #4 Bitcoin ETF Outflows Lastly, the market witnessed notable outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, marking a reversal from last week’s substantial inflows. The total outflows amounted to $85.7 million in a single day, with Grayscale’s GBTC experiencing the most significant withdrawal of $302 million. Meanwhile, Blackrock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC reported positive inflows, totaling $165.9 million and $44 million, respectively. Commenting on this, WhalePanda remarked, “Overall negative day but not as negative as the price implied. Closing of Q1 so taking profit here makes sense. Some fuckery around [the] new quarter and halving is to be expected.” At press time, BTC traded at $66,647. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com