Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp correction after losing the $115K support level, triggering a wave of uncertainty across the market. Following weeks of consolidation in a tight range, BTC has broken down, fueling debates among analysts about the asset’s short-term direction. Some experts warn that Bitcoin could face further declines as investors take profits and sentiment turns cautious. Others maintain a more optimistic view, suggesting that the correction is a healthy pause before BTC makes another attempt to reclaim its all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Selling More Aggressively As Bull Cycle Matures: Risk Appetite Fades? Key data from CryptoQuant adds another layer to the analysis. Metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in an “overheated” state, with valuation indicators signaling excessive bullish momentum. This suggests that the current consolidation phase may extend further as the market works to reset. Until demand stabilizes and new liquidity flows in, Bitcoin could continue to trade in a volatile environment, with the $112K–$115K range acting as a critical battleground between bulls and bears. With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and global macroeconomic factors still in play, Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on a combination of market sentiment, institutional demand, and the broader risk appetite of investors in the coming weeks. Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Signals Overvaluation Top analyst Darkfost recently shared insights on X, highlighting the significance of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow reversion (S2F) chart as a reliable indicator to assess Bitcoin’s valuation cycles. According to Darkfost, when the S2F metric rises above a value of 3, it typically indicates that Bitcoin is entering an overheated phase, signaling a high probability of a market correction. Currently, the S2F value is approaching this critical threshold, prompting Darkfost to caution investors that it may be an opportune moment to lock in profits before a deeper correction unfolds. Darkfost’s analysis points to historical patterns where similar S2F readings have preceded substantial price declines. In September 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $63,500 to $30,800 after the S2F metric crossed into the overvaluation zone. Again, in November 2021, BTC crashed from $67,000 to $15,800 following a peak S2F signal. More recently, in March 2024, Bitcoin corrected sharply from $73,000 to $54,000 after entering overheated territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Holds Strong Despite Price Drop: Accumulation Trend Remains Intact This preset alert system, designed for long-term market participants, serves as a strategic tool to help investors navigate Bitcoin’s volatile cycles. While the current correction might seem abrupt, Darkfost emphasizes that such pullbacks are essential for the market to reset and build a sustainable foundation for future growth. Investors are urged to remain cautious and monitor the S2F chart closely as Bitcoin navigates this critical phase. BTC Struggles To Reclaim The $115K Level Bitcoin is attempting to recover after its recent decline, currently trading around $115,019 as shown in the 8-hour chart. The price has managed to bounce from the $112K support zone but faces strong resistance at the $115,724 level, which previously acted as a key support during the two-week consolidation range in July. The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are now positioned just above the current price, adding to the overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA around $110,677 continues to provide solid support, keeping the overall uptrend intact for now. However, BTC must reclaim the $115,724 level and consolidate above it to regain bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline Volume has been relatively low during the recent bounce, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction. If Bitcoin fails to break above the $115K resistance decisively, it risks falling back to test the $112K zone again. On the upside, a successful breakout above $115,724 could open the path to retest the $122,077 all-time high resistance. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has still not become overbought according to the Mayer Multiple. Here’s the level BTC would need to breech in order to enter this territory. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Has A Value Of 1.37 Right Now In a new post on X, the analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the latest trend in the Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin. The “Mayer Multiple” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between BTC’s spot price and its 200-day moving average (MA). As Glassnode explains, The 200DMA is a widely recognized tool for gauging macro bull or bear bias. The Mayer Multiple measures how far BTC is from this long-term average. When the Mayer Multiple has a value greater than 1, it means the price of the cryptocurrency is trading above its 200-day MA. On the other hand, it being under the mark implies the asset is below this historically important level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shark Wallets Set New Record: Bullish Foreshadowing For 2025? Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm, that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple over the last few years: Looks like the Mayer Multiple is greater than 1 right now | Source: Glassnode on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has a value of 1.37 right now, which means that the asset has a notable distance over its 200-day MA. In the chart, Glassnode has also highlighted three lines where the spot price of BTC would assume a Mayer Multiple equal to a historically relevant value. The green level (bottom) corresponds to the indicator assuming a value of 0.8. BTC being under this level has generally signaled oversold conditions. The line is currently situated around $60,000, meaning that the asset would have to drop under this mark to arrive at the bottoming zone. The red level (top) is located at $181,000 right now. At this price mark, the cryptocurrency’s Mayer Multiple would reach a value of 2.4. Going beyond this level usually implies that the asset is becoming overbought. “Although BTC is above its 200DMA, it’s quite far from the overbought territory,” notes the analytics firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Hits 60-Day Low: Is This Bullish? Bitcoin would have to break the $181,000 level if it has to cross above this level in the current cycle. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the asset would breach the level in this cycle at all or if it would top out before it can happen. The last line in the graph, the blue one in the middle, is just the 200-day MA of the asset. That is, the line where the Mayer Multiple is exactly equal to 1. BTC dipped under this level for a while during the consolidation period last year. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $106,600, up almost 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions. Bitcoin Has Surpassed Highest MVRV Deviation Pricing Band In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Could See A 53% Surge If This Resistance Breaks, Analyst Explains Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network. Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report. In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value. From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility. Related Reading: XRP Binance Inflows Spike: What It Means For Price The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then. In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows. As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model. BTC Price Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Here’s what the legendary Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MRVRV) Ratio says about whether Bitcoin is currently overheated or not. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Risen Alongside The Latest Rally In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about the MVRV Ratio of Bitcoin. The “MVRV Ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The market cap here is just the total valuation of BTC’s circulating supply at the current spot price. The other metric, the realized cap, is also a capitalization model for the asset, but it doesn’t work so simply. Related Reading: Ethereum Volatility Soon? Derivatives Exchanges Receive 82,000 ETH In Deposits Unlike the market cap, this model doesn’t put the same price on every coin in circulation; rather, it assumes that the last price at which a token was transacted represents its ‘true’ value. The previous transaction of any coin is likely to represent the last point it switched hands, so the realized cap essentially takes the sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. One way to look at this model is as a measure of the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. The market cap, in contrast, signifies the value that these holders are carrying in the present. When the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market cap is above the realized cap right now. Such a trend suggests the investors as a whole are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the indicator being below this mark implies the average holder is currently underwater as they are holding their coins at a value below the price they bought them for. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio had surged to significant levels back when BTC had broken the November 2021 all-time high (ATH) in the first quarter of the year. An increase in the metric has also followed in the new ATH break, but the metric is clearly not near the same high as earlier in the year yet. Historically, the cryptocurrency has made tops whenever the indicator has risen to high levels. As the quant has marked in the chart, however, how high is a ‘high’ MVRV level has been declining over the last few cycles. If the trendline drawn by the analyst holds, then the current cycle should see a top around when the MVRV Ratio would hit a value of around 3. At present, the metric is at 2, so there may still be a while to go before Bitcoin becomes overheated. Related Reading: Dogecoin Rockets Up 12%, But This FOMO Signal Could End Rally As for why the asset tends to get overheated when the MVRV Ratio shoots up, the reason is that investors become increasingly likely to take part in profit-taking the larger their gains get. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,100, up almost 8% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data of an on-chain indicator could suggest Bitcoin is currently not at a stage where its price would be at a significant risk of facing correction. Bitcoin 365-Day MA Growth Rate Is Sitting Below Historical Overheated Zone In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the recent trend in the “Growth Rate” metric for Bitcoin. The Growth Rate basically keeps track of the difference between the changes happening in the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The Market Cap here is naturally just the simple valuation of the cryptocurrency’s total circulating supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap, on the other hand, is a bit more complex. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again? The Realized Cap is an on-chain capitalization model for the asset that takes the “real” value of any coin in circulation to be the same as the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain. As the last transaction of any coin was likely the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time would act as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this price for all tokens of the asset, it essentially calculates the sum of the cost basis of each coin in the circulating supply. In other words, the Realized Cap measures the total amount of capital that the investors have used to buy their Bitcoin. The changes in the Realized Cap would, therefore, represent the capital inflows or outflows happening for the cryptocurrency. As the Growth Rate keeps track of how changes in the Realized Cap are reflecting in the Market Cap, it basically tells us about how reactive the market is being to capital flows. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Growth Rate over the last decade or so: As is visible in the above graph, the 365-day MA Bitcoin Growth Rate has been at positive levels since early 2023. When the indicator has green values, it means that the Market Cap is growing at a rate faster than the Realized Cap. At present, the indicator is sitting at the 0.001 mark, which is a relatively high level. Thus, it would appear that capital inflows have been rapidly driving up the price recently. Historically, during periods of euphoria in the market, where Market Cap has exploded relative to the Realized Cap, tops have become more probable to take place. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery From the chart, it’s apparent, though, that the recent levels of the metric, although high, have still been below the 0.002 mark beyond which corrections have become likely in the past. The Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) back in March, which has continued to be the top for the rally thus far, had also occurred when the Growth Rate had surged above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin had slipped under the $67,000 mark yesterday, but the asset has since seen a recovery push that has now taken its price back above $69,300. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest has observed a notable cool off recently, something that could be positive for the rally’s hopes. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Cooled Down From Recent Overheated Levels As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Open Interest has registered a retrace recently. The “Open Interest” here […]