On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed the five key Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to keep an eye on in the coming week. Bitcoin Is Observing Developments On These Metrics In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant has discussed about some Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to watch amid the consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Cardano Whale Makes $54 Million Coinbase Outflow: Sign Of Dip Buying? The first indicator shared by the analytics firm is the 60-day change in the market cap of USDT, the number one stablecoin. As is visible in the above chart, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has continued to sit at a notable positive level recently, implying the stablecoin has been witnessing growth. Stablecoins are one of the main inlets of capital into the cryptocurrency sector, so growth in them can generally be a positive sign. Currently, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has a value of $10 billion. “This is a clear sign of fresh liquidity entering the market,” notes CryptoQuant. Another stablecoins-related indicator that can be relevant for Bitcoin is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures the ratio between the market cap of BTC and combined that of all stables. A low value in the indicator can prove to be a bullish sign, as it implies investor purchasing power in the form of stablecoins is high compared to the Bitcoin market cap. From the below chart, it’s apparent that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the BTC SSR stands at a value of 21 right now, which is considered to be inside the “buy” territory. Another bullish sign that’s developing for Bitcoin is in the Accumulator Address Demand, an indicator that measures the demand that’s coming from addresses that have zero history of selling the cryptocurrency. These perennial HODLers now own 298,000 BTC, which is a new record. A metric that’s still inside the bearish zone, however, is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). This metric keeps track of the BTC flows happening between spot and derivatives exchanges. The indicator has been following a downtrend during the past few months, which is considered to be a bear market pattern. “Watch closely: a shift upward often marks the start of bullish momentum,” says the analytics firm. The final metric shared by CryptoQuant is the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs), which measures the average cost basis of the Bitcoin investors who got in during the last 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Returns Back To Neutral As BTC Breaks $114,000 During BTC’s recent plunge, the STHs briefly dipped into losses, but the asset has since recovered above their Realized Price of $109,775. Bullish trends have historically continued when the coin has traded above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin has climbed back to $114,200 following its recovery surge in the last couple of days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has seen a crash to the $87,000 level in the past day, but if on-chain data is to go by, the plunge could get much deeper. Bitcoin Has Lost An Important Support Level With The Crash In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how some Bitcoin indicators have changed following the plunge in the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Loss Holders Highest Since October As BTC Crashes To $87,000 The first metric that the analytics firm has shared is the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. When the spot price of the asset is trading above this indicator, it means the investors as a whole can be considered in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being under the metric implies the dominance of loss in the market. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a segment of the userbase is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs), who refer to the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin was trading above the STH Realized Price during the last few months, meaning the STHs were enjoying profits, but with the latest crash, the situation has flipped. The STH Realized Price is equal to $92,500, so at the current spot price, the members of this cohort would be carrying an average loss of more than 6%. “A failure to reclaim STH cost basis could mean continued sell pressure from recent buyers,” notes Glassnode. As for how far BTC could fall from here, perhaps historical pattern could hold a hint. According to the analytics firm, the post-ATH corrections of May 2021, November 2021, and April 2024 all saw BTC fall one standard deviation below the STH Realized Price. At present, this price band is situated between $71,000 and $72,000. If the past pattern is to go by, it’s possible that this correction may also lead Bitcoin to near this band. Related Reading: Bitcoin Once Again Arrives At This Bear-Bull Boundary—Will A Break Happen? The Cost Basis Distribution, another metric related to investor cost basis, also highlights this same level as being important for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that a substantial amount of investors have their cost basis at various zones above $87,000. Under this mark, however, very few addresses bought their coins, until the same $71,000 to $72,000 band. “This could mean weaker support in this range, giving bears more control,” explains the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,200, down more than 7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
An on-chain analyst has explained how Bitcoin is sitting like a coiled spring right now, a state the asset doesn’t usually stay in for too long. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Sell-Side Risk Ratio Has Declined Recently In a new post on X, analyst Checkmate has discussed the recent trend occurring in the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for the Bitcoin short-term holders. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio here refers to an indicator that tells us about how the absolute profit and loss being locked in by the investors compares against the BTC Realized Cap. The Realized Cap is basically a measure of the total amount of capital that holders as a whole have used to purchase their coins, as determined by on-chain data. Related Reading: Bitcoin Not ‘Overvalued’ Yet, Says CryptoQuant CEO: Here’s Why Thus, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which takes the ratio between the sum of profit and loss with this initial investment, provides info about how the profit or loss-taking from the investors looks like relative to their cost basis. When the value of the indicator is high, it means the holders are realizing a large profit or loss right now. Such a trend may follow some sharp volatility in the asset’s price. On the other hand, the metric being low implies that investors are only selling coins close to their break-even level. This kind of trend could suggest profit or loss-takers in the market have become exhausted. In the context of the current topic, the entire market’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio isn’t of interest, but rather that of only a specific segment of it: the short-term holders (STHs). These investors are typically defined as those who acquired their coins within the past 155 days. The below chart shows the trend in the metric for this cohort over the past decade: As is visible in the graph, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for the Bitcoin STHs had shot up to a very high level when the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH) had occurred earlier in the year. Historically, the STHs have shown to be the fickle-minded hands of the market, who sell easily at the sight of any FOMO or FUD in the sector. As such, it’s not surprising to see that these investors had ramped up their profit realization alongside the rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Solid On-Chain Cushion Below $68,900: Stage Set For Fresh Rally? Since this peak, though, the indicator has gone through a steep decline as the price of the cryptocurrency has been stuck in endless consolidation. Following the drawdown, the metric has now returned to relatively low levels. It would appear that as the tight sideways movement has occurred, sellers among the STHs have seen exhaustion. “Bitcoin is coiled like a spring, and it usually doesn’t sit still like this for long,” notes the analyst. With the asset’s price surging to $71,000 in the past day, it’s possible that this unwinding may already be here. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed an increase of around 3% in the past 24 hours, which has now taken its price to $70,900. Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows Bitcoin is currently nearing two notable on-chain price levels. Here’s what happened the last time BTC broke above them. Bitcoin Is Approaching Vaulted Price & MVRV +1SD Currently In a new post on X, Glassnode leads on-chain analyst Checkmate points out that BTC has been near two on-chain price levels recently. The first of these levels is the “MVRV +1SD.” The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is a famous indicator for Bitcoin. In short, it compares the value that BTC holders are currently carrying (that is, the market cap) against the value they put into the cryptocurrency (the realized cap). Related Reading: Bitcoin 40% Of Way Through Bull Run If This Metric Is To Go By This metric is generally used to determine the scale of profit or loss that the market as a whole is carrying right now. Based on this, the fairness of the coin’s price may be judged. In the context of the current discussion, the +1 standard deviation (SD) of the MVRV ratio from its mean is of relevance. More specifically, the price level at which the market would satisfy this MVRV ratio condition is of focus. The other on-chain level of interest here is the “Vaulted Price.” This indicator is a product of the “Cointime Economics” framework that Checkmate came up with alongside David Puell from Ark Invest. In reference to this metric, the paper reads: Vaulted Realized Price may be considered to be a pricing level that reflects the ‘potential energy’ stored in the system. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the more long-term coin accumulation that takes place, the larger the uncertainty becomes between the proportion of truly lost vs. HODLed supply. Vaulted Realized Price will trade lower in this instance, as more cointime accumulation takes place, and uncertainty regarding future distributive pressure builds (and vice-versa). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in these two indicators, as well as some other “original” on-chain levels, over the past few years: Looks like the asset has been near these two levels in recent weeks | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price earlier broke through the Vaulted Price and went to the MVRV +1SD (note that the labeling is flipped in the chart by mistake, as Checkmate has noted in reply to the post). Since then, the price has come down a bit and is trading under both of these levels. Nonetheless, it currently stands quite near to them and far above the other on-chain price levels like the realized price. Related Reading: Polygon (MATIC) In Buy Zone That Earlier Led To 112% & 87% Surges As the chart highlights, the last time cryptocurrency was in this situation was December 2020. Obviously, what followed then was the bull run of 2021. It remains to be seen how Bitcoin’s interactions with these levels will be this time around and whether a similar euphoric run will follow with a potential break above them. BTC Price Bitcoin had shot up above the $72,000 mark earlier, but it has since slumped back again, and it’s now floating around $69,000. The price of the asset appears to have plunged over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com