Bitcoin has pushed above the $95,000 level for the first time since mid-November, reigniting debate across the market. For some analysts, this move represents a constructive breakout that confirms underlying strength after weeks of consolidation. For others, the rally is viewed with caution, framed as a classic relief move occurring within a broader corrective or bearish structure. With sentiment split and volatility compressed, the market is once again searching for confirmation rather than direction alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH SOPR Signals Early Capitulation, But Selling Pressure Remains Contained Adding an important layer to this discussion, an analysis by Darkfost highlights a notable shift beneath the surface: OG Bitcoin activity has dropped sharply. OGs—holders whose coins have remained dormant for several years—have historically played a key role during major cycle transitions, often distributing aggressively near macro tops. During this cycle, their activity surged earlier, coinciding with strong institutional demand and elevated prices. However, recent data shows that this selling pressure has slowed significantly. This decline in OG spending suggests that long-dormant holders are no longer actively distributing into strength, reducing a major source of structural sell pressure. While this does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, it changes the risk profile of the current move. With fewer legacy holders selling, price action above $95K is now being shaped more by marginal demand and derivatives positioning than by long-term distribution, making the next phase especially critical to monitor. OG Selling Pressure Fades as Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet Darkfost’s analysis uses UTXO behavior to understand how long-term holders are acting beneath the surface. UTXOs, which track when and how previously unspent Bitcoin is moved, provide a reliable way to identify activity from OG holders—coins that have remained dormant for several years. When these coins move, it usually signals intentional distribution rather than short-term speculation. Earlier in this cycle, OG activity was unusually elevated. Long-held coins were spent at levels well above those seen in the previous cycle, coinciding with a favorable environment for distribution. Institutional inflows, spot ETFs, and even government-linked demand created deep liquidity conditions that allowed legacy holders to sell without destabilizing the price. That window appears to be closing. Recent data shows a clear shift. Spikes in OG spending during local price peaks have become smaller and less frequent. The rolling average of spent older outputs has fallen materially from prior highs, indicating that the heaviest phase of long-term distribution is likely behind us. This does not imply that OGs have turned aggressively bullish, but it does suggest reduced urgency to sell. From a market structure perspective, declining OG selling pressure removes a major overhead supply source. With fewer long-dormant coins entering circulation, price action becomes increasingly dependent on short-term demand dynamics and derivatives positioning. This transition often precedes either consolidation or trend continuation, making OG inactivity a quietly constructive signal rather than an outright bullish trigger. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Near A Profit Flip: A Key Level Comes Into Focus Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance After Short-Term Breakout Bitcoin has pushed back above the $95,000 level after weeks of consolidation, marking a notable short-term breakout. On this daily chart, price has reclaimed the descending short-term moving average and is now testing a former resistance zone that previously acted as support during September and October. This area around $95K–$96K is technically significant, as it coincides with prior range lows and a visible supply cluster. The rebound follows a sharp corrective phase in November, where BTC printed a local bottom near the mid-$80,000 region. Since then, price action has formed a series of higher lows, suggesting an improving short-term structure. Volume remains moderate, indicating that this move is not driven by aggressive speculation, but rather by steady spot demand and short covering. Related Reading: Trump-Powell Conflict Fuels Volatility While Retail Sells Bitcoin At A Loss – Details However, Bitcoin still trades below its longer-term moving averages, which continue to slope downward. This implies that, despite the recent strength, the broader trend has not yet fully flipped bullish. A sustained hold above $95,000 would take it into the $98,000–$100,000 zone. A level where stronger resistance and prior breakdown zones sit. Failure to consolidate above current levels could result in another retest of the $90,000–$92,000 support range. The chart reflects a transition phase: momentum is improving, but confirmation will depend on follow-through and acceptance above this critical resistance area. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com v
Bitcoin is currently trading below $92,000, and the market is showing clear signs of exhaustion as selling pressure intensifies. Fear has pushed sentiment toward the bearish end of the spectrum, with many analysts now arguing that BTC may be entering a new bear market. The loss of key support levels and the rapid acceleration of downside volatility have only fueled these concerns, especially as short-term holders continue to capitulate at scale. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Deepens Around $90K Level: Classic Late-Stage Fear Structure Emerging However, not all perspectives are bearish. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may be forming a local bottom, as the current correction resembles previous mid-cycle retracements seen during strong bull markets. They argue that the broader macro environment remains supportive and that long-term holders have not shown signs of structural weakness. As selling pressure concentrates among weak hands, the possibility of a reversal increases — especially once forced sellers exhaust themselves. Adding to the uncertainty, new on-chain data from Lookonchain revealed that Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden just deposited all his remaining 2,499 BTC into Kraken roughly an hour ago. Moves like this often trigger speculation, as exchange deposits from early holders can signal potential selling. Yet historically, similar events have also occurred near cycle bottoms when panic is at its peak. A Massive BTC Transfer Sparks Market Speculation According to fresh data from Lookonchain, Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden has just deposited his remaining 2,499 BTC (worth $228 million) into Kraken roughly an hour ago. This move has immediately raised questions across the market, as large exchange deposits from early whales often signal potential selling pressure. What makes this development even more notable is the context: just two weeks ago, Lookonchain reported that Gunden appeared ready to offload his entire 11,000 BTC stash — a position worth over $1.12 billion at the time. Now, with this final deposit, it appears he has officially completed the move. For many traders, this confirms that one of the oldest and largest long-term holders has fully exited or is preparing to exit the market. Such whale behavior can amplify fear during corrective phases, especially as Bitcoin continues to struggle below $92K. Moves of this scale not only contribute to short-term volatility but also influence sentiment by signaling that even early accumulators may be reducing exposure. However, historically, capitulation events from long-term holders have often coincided with or preceded major turning points. If this massive transfer marks the end of Gunden’s sell-off, the market may soon absorb the pressure — potentially clearing the path for a recovery once the fear subsides. Related Reading: Nearly 7M Bitcoin Now Sitting At A Loss: Highest Unrealized Pain Since January 2024 Short-Term Trend Still Under Pressure Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart reveals a market that remains firmly under short-term selling pressure, despite occasional relief bounces. The price is struggling to reclaim $92,000, a level that previously acted as support but is now working as resistance. The series of lower highs and lower lows highlights a persistent downtrend that has shaped BTC’s trajectory since early October. All major moving averages—the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA—are positioned above current price action and pointing downward. This alignment confirms a clear short-term bearish structure. Each time BTC attempts to recover, it meets strong resistance at these declining MAs, signaling that sellers remain in control. The most recent bounce barely reached the 50 SMA before being rejected again, reinforcing the weakness of buyer momentum. Related Reading: XRP Supply In Profit Falls to 58.5% – Lowest Since 2024 Despite Higher Price Volume remains elevated on downswings, which indicates that sell-offs continue to be driven by conviction rather than random volatility. Buyers are stepping in around the $89,000–$91,000 zone, but so far, this support has only produced temporary pauses rather than meaningful reversals. For a structural shift, BTC would need to reclaim at least the $95,000 area and break above the 100 SMA. Until then, the trend remains tilted toward further downside or continued consolidation near current levels. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com