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Bitcoin has rallied massively over the past seven days by posting an impressive price gain of nearly 9% after climbing from around $108,300 to almost $118,800. This move was quite surprising, particularly as the process saw Bitcoin clearing its previous all-time high from late May by breaking above $111,970. But according to Bitcoin technical analyst CryptoCon, this breakout may just be the beginning. In a recent post on the social media platform X, CryptoCon revealed a long-term cycle pattern that points to a more ambitious price target for Bitcoin. Analyst Unveils BTC’s Golden Number For This Cycle In a recent post on social media platform X, CryptoCon revealed a long-term cycle pattern that points to a more ambitious target for Bitcoin. His analysis is based on the 5.618 Fibonacci extension, which is a number he says has perfectly aligned with every prior cycle top. The projection opens up the possibility of whether Bitcoin’s current move marks the start of another parabolic run. Related Reading: Market Expert Says It’s Now ‘Illegal’ To Short Bitcoin, Here’s Why CryptoCon’s technical chart analysis builds on the recurring 5.618 Fibonacci extension level in previous market cycles. The analyst shows how Bitcoin’s previous tops have fallen within striking distance of this precise extension by measuring the move of each market cycle and applying this golden ratio.  The chart shown below features the $30.84 peak in June 2011, the $1,205 top in November 2013, the $18,702 high from December 2017, and the peak of $63,839 in November 2021. Each of these market tops, as shown in the Bitcoin multi-year price chart below, converged on the same 5.618 multiple from their preceding bear market lows. Now, using this same approach in the ongoing cycle, CryptoCon projected that the next major step for Bitcoin is somewhere between $170,000 and $180,000. Particularly, the 5.618 Fibonacci extension points to a “Golden Number” of $184,181 for Bitcoin’s price in this cycle. Bitcoin Price Compression Is About To Expand Violently Several major forces appear to have contributed to BTC’s recent surge in the past 48 hours. A significant short squeeze earlier in the week reportedly wiped out over $1 billion in bearish positions. At the same time, US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered over $1 billion in daily inflows in the past two consecutive days. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Breakdown — Here’s The Best Time To Buy In his X post, CryptoCon also commented on the current state of Bitcoin’s chart: “All the boring price action is coming to a squeeze; it can’t stay that way forever.” This observation reflects the long period of tight, sideways trading between $105,000 and $108,000 that Bitcoin experienced in the previous two weeks. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,762, retracing slightly after reaching its most recent all-time high of $118,667, according to CoinGecko data. Other crypto analysts now find themselves watching the $130,000 region as another zone of consolidation activity on the way to the possible cycle peak. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has officially entered a new chapter in its bull market, surging to fresh all-time highs near $118,800 after weeks of tight consolidation. This decisive breakout marks a pivotal shift in momentum, with analysts pointing to a potential explosive leg higher as bullish sentiment returns. The move above previous highs has not only reignited interest in BTC but also fueled optimism across the broader crypto market. Related Reading: Ethereum Targets Liquidity Above $3,000 – Price Magnet Forming One of the most telling indicators of the current cycle’s strength is Bitcoin Dominance. According to top analyst On-Chain Mind, BTC dominance has climbed to 65% since the beginning of this bull market. This sharp increase highlights a clear preference among investors for Bitcoin over altcoins, solidifying its position as the market’s anchor in times of volatility and growth. As Bitcoin leads the charge, market watchers believe the breakout could trigger a wave of institutional inflows and renewed attention from sidelined retail investors. With momentum building and confidence growing, the breakout above $118K may just be the start of an even larger move, one that could define the next phase of the 2025 crypto bull cycle. Bitcoin Leads The Charge After weeks of sideways consolidation below the $110,000 mark, Bitcoin has finally broken out, launching a new bullish phase and pushing the broader crypto market into motion. Altcoins, which had lagged in recent months, are now climbing above key resistance levels as confidence spreads. This coordinated move comes amid a backdrop of macroeconomic shifts, with market participants increasingly anticipating a weakening US dollar and the return of inflationary policies under US President Donald Trump’s administration. With expectations of rate cuts looming and pressure mounting on the Federal Reserve, the market sees crypto—especially Bitcoin—as a natural hedge. However, caution still lingers. US Treasury yields remain elevated, continuing to flash warnings of systemic stress in the traditional financial system. That tension has only strengthened Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign, hard-capped monetary asset. Bitcoin dominance tells the story clearly. “At the start of this bull market, it sat at 40%. Today? 65%,” noted On-Chain Mind, emphasizing how investor preference has overwhelmingly leaned toward BTC. This dominance reflects a trend that has barely flinched, even as Ethereum and other altcoins attempt to catch up. As BTC leads the market higher, its dominance reinforces its role as the primary beneficiary of macro uncertainty. While the altcoin space is beginning to show signs of life, it’s clear that Bitcoin remains the anchor, and investors aren’t ready to rotate just yet. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Oscillator Predicts First Sell Pressure Level At $130,900 – Details 4‑Hour Chart: Post‑Breakout Cooling Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a clean breakout followed by consolidation, a typical sign of strength after an impulsive move. Price surged from the long-standing resistance at $109,300 to a local high of $118,000 in less than twelve hours, marking an 8% rally. This breakout flipped prior resistance into support and triggered strong volume, validating the move. Volume has decreased during this period, which is characteristic of a bullish consolidation rather than distribution. The 50-period moving average (blue) has crossed above the 100-period (green), forming a short-term golden cross near $109K. This crossover supports a bullish outlook, with the 200-period moving average (red) trending upward from $105K, reinforcing the structure of higher lows. Related Reading: Altcoins Jump Off Critical Support Level – Relief Or Reversal? As long as Bitcoin remains above $112K, bulls are firmly in control. A drop below $109K would invalidate the breakout and raise short-term risks. However, if price can break above $118K with conviction, it could open the door to a run toward the $120K psychological level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has surpassed its previous all-time high, reaching $118,254 and marking a notable milestone in its price trajectory. This latest milestone comes after BTC’s former high at $111,000 levels in May, representing a 10% gain over the past week and roughly 5.9% in the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $117,584. The sharp price increase appears to be giving strength to activity among both miners and leveraged traders, prompting a closer examination of current market behavior. Analysts monitoring on-chain activity have flagged a resurgence of miner activity alongside a rise in derivative positions, suggesting multiple forces may now be contributing to price movements. Related Reading: Research Predicts $160,000 Bitcoin By EOY—If Treasury Firms Hold As these two segments of the market engage more actively, questions are emerging around the sustainability of this rally and whether these behaviors signal confidence or caution. The current on-chain environment shows both selling pressure from miners and increased exposure from long-positioned traders. Bitcoin Miner Activity Rises Alongside Price Surge One of CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributors, Arab Chain, observed a marked increase in miner activity as Bitcoin crossed the $118,000 level. According to the analyst, this uptick in activity is tied to miner transfers to exchanges, marking the first such increase since May 23. This trend suggests miners could be taking advantage of recent price gains to realize profits. As Arab Chain explained, “The continued activity of miners, coupled with Bitcoin’s price rising to new highs, clearly indicates that they are selling Bitcoin.” Despite this renewed transfer volume, miner behavior has not yet reached the scale of over-the-counter (OTC) selling seen in previous months. Historically, large-scale selling by miners has introduced notable volatility into the market, particularly when sustained across a broader period. The analyst also pointed out the economic leverage miners hold in decision-making, owing to their ability to manage operational costs and balance between holding and selling mined Bitcoin. Whether this increase in exchange flows will develop into heavier selling remains to be seen. Derivatives Market Shows Renewed Leverage Exposure In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Enigma Trader focused on derivatives market activity, highlighting a 24% surge in open interest from approximately $33 billion on July 1 to over $41 billion by July 11. The timing of this increase coincides with Bitcoin’s breakout above $118,000, and reflects renewed leveraged interest following a reset late last month. This level of open interest suggests that traders are positioning more aggressively, potentially anticipating continued upside. The analyst also noted a shift in funding rates from negative to their highest positive reading in a month, around 0.012% per eight hours. Positive funding indicates that long-positioned traders are paying to maintain their positions, a sign of bullish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Intact, But Binance Activity Warns Of Short-Term Pullback However, Enigma Trader cautioned that such positioning can become precarious if momentum slows. “This setup often fuels upside continuation if spot demand backs it, but also increases the risk of a long squeeze should momentum stall,” the analyst wrote. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to post new all-time highs (ATH), reaching as much as $118,869 on Binance, market indicators show little sign of overheating. The lack of retail-driven hype amid BTC’s record-breaking run suggests there may still be room for further growth in the flagship cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ATH Sees Absence Of Hype According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkemeci, Bitcoin’s current rally is notably characterized by the absence of retail investors. The contributor argues that this lack of retail participation implies BTC may still have significant upside potential. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Ahead? DXY Breakdown Suggests Capital Shift To Risk-On Assets The analysis centers on the Spot Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge metric, which tracks the frequency of retail trading activity in the Bitcoin spot market. The analyst shared the following chart to illustrate the trend. When retail trading activity rises significantly compared to the one-year moving average (MA), the chart forms bubbles. Green bubbles indicate that there are very few retail investors currently in the market. Orange bubbles show that trading activity among retail investors is picking up. Similarly, red bubbles indicate caution, hinting that there are too many retail investors in the market and that it may be a good time to consider exit strategies. As the below chart shows, retail activity remains subdued – even as BTC continues to reach new ATHs. In fact, the metric has stayed within the gray zone since March 2024, reflecting a lack of mass retail entry. Historically, retail trading tends to surge as BTC approaches or exceeds ATH levels. The analyst notes that this absence may indicate the cycle top is still ahead: The bull market is still largely driven by institutions and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). When retail finally enters the scene, that might mark the beginning of the final phase. BTC Witnessing Subdued Selling Pressure In addition to the low retail presence, other on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s current rally is not overheating. For example, the Miner Position Index has been declining since November 2024, implying reduced selling pressure from miners. Another key metric, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, is holding steady around 2.2 – below the 2.7 levels observed during ATHs in March and December 2024. Recent analysis predicts the next significant resistance may emerge at around $130,900. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heating Up? NVT Golden Cross Hints At Potential Local Top Despite weak selling pressure and limited retail activity, some recent exchange trends hint at the possibility of a short-term pullback. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $117,746, up an impressive 6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s summer rally accelerated in the early hours of 11 July, when the benchmark cryptocurrency sliced through $118,000 and printed exchange highs that peaked above $118,800, depending on venue data. The spike wiped out an estimated $1.25 billion in short positions within a single trading day, according to CoinGlass figures. Bitcoin Bull Trap Or Breakout? Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards took to X as the breakout unfolded. “New all-time highs beget new ATHs. It’s usually unwise to ignore a major breakout like this, until invalidated,” he wrote, adding that corporate treasury demand has “grown exponentially, with dozens of new companies popping up in recent months.” Edwards’ base-case projection calls for a further 50–70 percent advance over the next six months—roughly $170,000–$196,000. Related Reading: Research Predicts $160,000 Bitcoin By EOY—If Treasury Firms Hold His focus on treasuries is backed by hard data. Public companies added a record 159,107 BTC in Q2—pushing aggregate corporate holdings above 847,000 BTC, or about four percent of max supply. Corporate Bitcoin acquisitions have even outpaced ETF net inflows. Matthew Sigel, head of digital-asset research at VanEck, framed Bitcoin’s trajectory within a broader macro and policy backdrop. “The natural course for Bitcoin remains higher, driven by persistent US debt and deficit problems, demographic tailwinds, a weakening dollar, growing momentum around Fed rate cuts, and the potential for a new Fed chair next year,” he wrote on X. Sigel also highlighted Capitol Hill’s looming “Crypto Week,” where stablecoin legislation is widely viewed as the most passable of several digital-asset bills. Those developments, he argues, make $180,000 “very much in play for 2025.” Law-makers appear to share the sense of urgency. A press statement from the House Financial Services Committee confirms that the week of 14 July will be dedicated to advancing the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act and the GENIUS Act. Passage would establish the first comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins and market structure, a change Sigel says could “unlock wide-open capital markets” for the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is One Candle Away From $141,300 Breakout, Chart Master Warns Spot Bitcoin ETFs are hardly idle: net inflows into BlackRock’s iShares fund alone have pushed its holdings past 700,000 BTC in the 18 months since launch. Yet Edwards and Sigel both note that treasury companies have become the marginal buyer in 2025. The dynamic creates what Edwards calls a “cap-raising flywheel,” as firms showcase outperforming share prices—up nearly 60 percent year-to-date for the treasury cohort—when courting investors. Notably, the rally is unfolding against a supportive macro backdrop. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a Dallas Fed audience he is “open to cutting the policy rate in July,” arguing current settings are “too tight” given waning inflation pressures. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continued his attacks on Fed chair Jerome Powell over the past weeks, demanding immediate rate cuts. Trump’s tariff escalation also seems to fade out, supporting the Bitcoin rally. Notwithstanding euphoric headlines, technicians warn that momentum must sustain above $110,000 to avoid a failed-breakout pattern. “This theory would be weakened with closes below $110K and invalidated below $105K,” Edwards concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $117,854. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has set a new all-time high (ATH) above $118,000, but on-chain data from Glassnode shows BTC volume remains low despite the breakout. Bitcoin Volume Still At Historically Low Levels Just recently, Glassnode had revealed that volume related to Bitcoin had dropped to yearly lows, potentially hinting at the start of a summer lull. Now, following the breakout to new highs, the on-chain analytics firm has shared updated data in a reply to an X user, showcasing how volume has changed since. From the chart, it’s visible that both the Spot and Futures Volumes, corresponding to Bitcoin trading activity occurring on the spot and futures platforms, respectively, plummeted at the end of June and remained low into early July. Related Reading: Solana Breaks Out Of Symmetrical Triangle—Next Stop $164? With the latest price breakout, however, both metrics have seen an increase, suggesting activity has noted an uplift across both the spot and futures markets. That said, while there has indeed been an uptick in trading, volumes still remain low when compared to history. Historically, rallies have usually only been sustainable when they have been able to capture mass attention from the traders. This is because the fresh activity is what ends up providing fuel for these runs to keep going. “The takeaway here is that BTC hit an ATH despite thin liquidity – worth paying attention to,” notes the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the activity increase would continue in the coming days or if the lull is here to stay. In some other news, a key Bitcoin indicator still remains outside the euphoria zone, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. The metric in question is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of the long-term holders. The NUPL measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of unrealized profit or loss that the BTC investors are currently holding. Here, the NUPL of the long-term holders (LTHs) specifically is of interest, who are the investors holding their coins for more than 155 days. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL over the past year. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin LTH NUPL has observed a rise alongside the latest price rally as LTH profits have grown. However, despite this, the indicator stands at 0.69, which is under the 0.75 level that has historically separated euphoric markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Not Just Hype—$4.4B Inflows Back The Move “This cycle has seen just ~30 days above the 0.75 threshold, compared to 228 days in the previous cycle,” says the analytics firm. The metric was last above this level in February. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $118,000, up over 9% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price is holding firm despite growing chatter about the end of its market dominance. However, analysts are turning their attention not to Bitcoin’s price but to its waning market share as signs that altcoins may finally be ready to take center stage in what could become a full-blown altcoin season. A post on X has highlighted a specific breakdown structure in BTC dominance, which is linked to nine factors indicating that the altcoin season has begun. Technical Factors Showing Fall Of Bitcoin Dominance According to the analyst, Bitcoin dominance reached a peak of exactly 66% on June 27, 2025, a date he calls significant for its esoteric code 434 and its occurrence on a new moon. From a technical perspective, the 66% mark coincided precisely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, a region many traders consider a reversal zone. More importantly, several warning signals are flashing for Bitcoin traders. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Not Remotely Close, Bitcoin Dominance Still Too High: Market Expert Says  The analyst’s post on the social media platform X features a few price charts to emphasize how the Bitcoin dominance might be fading, alongside nine factors. From a purely technical lens, the dominance chart looks increasingly exhausted. The first factor is the most recent highest monthly RSI in the history of the Bitcoin dominance chart. This event has created an overbought condition, and the next outlook is a possible crash of the RSI. The MACD, in fact, has already crossed into bearish territory. Furthermore, the histogram has turned negative, and the faster line has moved below the slower one, which is a classic signal of an impending downtrend. Another interesting factor is that Bitcoin dominance has now broken a key diagonal support line that held firm through much of 2024 and 2025, which is another possible structural breakdown.  Fundamental Factors Show Strong Rotation Into Altcoin Pairs While the technical picture is deteriorating, the fundamentals are also stacking in favor of altcoins very quickly. The first fundamental factor is the importance of upcoming altcoin spot ETFs, which have the possibility to redirect institutional flows from Bitcoin into Ethereum, XRP, and others.  Related Reading: Time To Forget Altcoin Season? Bitcoin Dominance At This Level Is This Only Hope ETFs such as the Spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana ETFs could rapidly increase inflows into the rest of the crypto market, similar to how Spot Bitcoin ETFs caused massive inflows into Bitcoin. The analyst also highlighted the likelihood of upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would tilt market conditions in favor of altcoins over Bitcoin. Momentum has also begun to shift in some trading pairs, particularly XRP/BTC and ETH/BTC, both of which are showing reversal signs from critical levels. The XRP/BTC chart displays repeated failed attempts to break above 0.0000215 BTC, a horizontal resistance that has now been tested five times on the daily candlestick timeframe chart. At the time of writing, the XRP/BTC pair has returned to this level yet again, and based on this pattern, any clean breakout here could confirm a decisive rotation into XRP.  Likewise, Ethereum has begun to recover from long-term oversold conditions when measured against Bitcoin. The rounded bottom pattern forming on the ETH/BTC weekly chart shows a reversal from undervaluation, which in past cycles has caused substantial gains for Ethereum relative to BTC. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has officially broken through its previous all-time high of $112,000, surging to $118,000 just hours ago and entering uncharted territory for the first time since late May. The breakout confirms bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation and failed attempts, with price action now showing clear strength. With the psychological and technical barrier of $112K cleared, many analysts believe this move could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s next expansive rally. Related Reading: Altcoins Jump Off Critical Support Level – Relief Or Reversal? Bulls are firmly in control, and on-chain metrics support this breakout narrative. According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands currently stand at 2.25. Historically, Bitcoin enters the overheated zone around 3.0 or higher, suggesting there is still room for growth before reaching excessive valuation territory. This metric, which measures the deviation between market price and realized value, helps identify when BTC is overbought or undervalued relative to past performance. At current levels, the data points to continued upside potential without major overheating concerns, fueling confidence that this breakout could extend further. Bitcoin Enters Expansion Phase As Market Eyes $130K After weeks of tight consolidation below the $110,000 mark, Bitcoin has finally broken out, signaling the start of a new market phase. The breakout above previous highs has reignited investor optimism, not only for BTC but also for the broader altcoin market, with many altcoins now pushing above key resistance levels for the first time in months. This move comes amid growing anticipation of a weakening US dollar and renewed inflationary pressures as Washington adopts looser fiscal policies. The market is increasingly pricing in the effects of tax cuts, high government spending, and dovish political rhetoric—all of which create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Still, the macro backdrop is not without risks. US Treasury yields remain elevated, flashing warnings of underlying systemic stress in credit markets. This tension underscores the fragility of the current rally and the importance of monitoring fundamental shifts. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights using the MVRV oscillator, a model that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. According to Adler, historical data over the last four years suggests that when MVRV reaches 2.75, Bitcoin tends to face its first wave of meaningful selling pressure. If the same pattern holds true in this cycle, Bitcoin could reach approximately $130,900 before seeing notable profit-taking activity. While the current MVRV reading remains below that threshold, the model offers a clear signal of where long-term holders may begin offloading. Until then, the breakout sets the stage for a potential leg higher, with bulls now in control, pushing toward price discovery and a possible test of the $130K zone. Related Reading: Ethereum Back At Range Highs: Breakout Above $2,800 Could Ignite Altseason BTC Enters Uncharted Territory With Strong Momentum Bitcoin has officially broken into price discovery after blasting through its all-time high resistance near $112,000. The 3-day chart shows a massive bullish candle pushing BTC up to $118,683, representing an 8.94% gain in the last session. This breakout is the first clear sign of a strong bullish continuation after weeks of sideways consolidation below key resistance. The chart highlights a textbook breakout structure. BTC respected the $103,600 and $109,300 support zones multiple times throughout May and June before finally gaining enough momentum to pierce through the upper resistance. The recent surge came with a noticeable spike in volume, adding confidence to the breakout’s sustainability. Moving averages also confirm the bullish trend. The 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines remain aligned upward with increasing separation, suggesting that market structure remains strong and trend continuation is likely. Bitcoin is now trading well above all major moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day Average Funding Rate Drops – Bullish Setup Takes Shape With no historical resistance levels above, BTC enters a price discovery phase. The next psychological target for bulls will likely be $120,000, followed by the MVRV-based resistance level around $130,900. As long as BTC holds above $112K, the momentum remains decisively in favor of the bulls. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

A sweeping new research report by Ben Harvey and Will Clemente III, commissioned by market maker Keyrock, projects that Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by the end of 2025—but only if the capital structure supporting Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs) remains intact. The research, “BTC Treasuries Uncovered: Premiums, Leverage, and the Sustainability of Proxy Exposure,” dissects the capital structures, market impact, and debt profiles of the fast-growing cohort of “Bitcoin Treasury Companies” (BTC-TCs), led by Strategy (the renamed MicroStrategy). The Impact Of Bitcoin Treasury Firms Harvey and Clemente open with a startling figure: “Bitcoin Treasury Companies have accumulated around 725,000 BTC, equivalent to 3.64 percent of the entire BTC supply.” Much of that hoard sits with Strategy’s 597,000-coin trove, but the analysts track more than a dozen follow-on players—from Marathon Digital and Metaplanet to newer entrants such as Twenty One Capital—whose combined exposure now outstrips US spot-ETF holdings by more than half. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is One Candle Away From $141,300 Breakout, Chart Master Warns Yet the report’s headline forecast is explicitly conditional. Keyrock’s bull case assigns a thirty-percent probability that global liquidity remains flush, institutional demand accelerates, and Bitcoin rallies fifty percent past today’s levels, “pushing BTC to over $160 k by EOY.” That outcome rests on the fragile flywheel of net-asset-value premiums: BTC-TC equities still trade, on average, at a seventy-three-percent premium to the dollar value of the coins they custody. Those premiums let boards issue new shares “accretively,” convert sentiment into fresh BTC, and—crucially—service the $33.7 billion in debt and preferred stock the sector has rung up to fund its buying binge. No company illustrates the reflexive loop better than Strategy. Since August 2020, Michael Saylor has driven Bitcoin-per-share (BPS) up eleven-fold, an annualized sixty-three-percent run rate that dwarfs the 6.7 percent CAGR needed to justify the firm’s current ninety-one-percent NAV premium. “If an investor believes that Strategy’s BPS growth rates will hold long-term,” the authors contend, “holding MSTR would be far more beneficial in BTC terms than holding spot BTC.” Still, that calculus assumes the equity premium stays afloat; if sentiment turns, dilution flips from accretive to punitive overnight. Debt maturities pose the next stress point. BTC-TCs owe a wall of convertible notes in 2027-28. Harvey and Clemente calculate that Strategy alone has issued $8.2 billion of the cohort’s $9.5 billion in debt; Marathon follows at $1.3 billion. Most instruments carry zero-to-low coupons and conversion prices well below current share levels, but a deep Bitcoin drawdown could drive equities under those strikes, forcing firms to repay in cash or refinance at far harsher terms. “Since many BTC-TC valuations are tightly correlated to Bitcoin price performance,” the authors warn, “a sharp BTC drawdown could drive down equity value, increasing the risk that conversion thresholds are breached.” Related Reading: Last Time This Happened, Bitcoin Jumped $50,000—Is History Repeating? The report splits the universe into cash-flow-generative names such as Metaplanet, CoinShares, and Boyaa Interactive—each with eight or more quarters of runway—and capital-dependent players like Marathon, Nakamoto, and DeFi Technologies, which could face dilution above three percent per quarter merely to stay solvent if premiums persist. Should those premiums compress, equity issuance “becomes purely dilutive,” and treasury companies could be forced to sell Bitcoin, undermining the proxy thesis that justifies their existence. The Base Case Keyrock’s base case, to which it assigns the highest probability, envisions Bitcoin finishing 2025 around $135,000, with NAV premiums cooling into a thirty-to-sixty-percent range. In that environment, well-managed treasuries still out-perform spot, but the leverage trade loses its shine. The bear scenario—assigned the lowest but non-trivial odds—combines a twenty-percent Bitcoin drawdown with a glut of new treasury listings that flood the market with supply. In that world, premiums vanish, refinancing windows slam shut, and “the entire investment case for BTC-TCs comes under pressure.” Harvey and Clemente do not dismiss the BTC-TC model; rather, they frame it as a high-beta overlay that amplifies both the upside and the solvency risk inherent in Bitcoin itself. They credit Saylor’s “Bitcoin yield” thesis—using premium-funded share issuance to compound coin holdings—as a demonstrably effective strategy to date, but caution that it relies on a delicate equilibrium of bullish sentiment, cheap capital, and meticulous execution. “The premium to NAV is of the utmost importance here,” the study concludes, “assuming a BTC-TC doesn’t have a core operating business that can cover debt payments, or is entirely free of debt payments altogether.” Whether Bitcoin can sprint to $160,000 by 31 December hinges less on hash-rate projections or macro modeling than on the continued faith of equity investors willing to pay a dollar-fifty for a dollar of embedded BTC. If those investors blink—if premiums fade or convertible maturities collide with a broad risk-off shift—the leverage that has propelled treasury companies to date could flip, turning “one of the best performing equities on the planet” into the market’s most crowded exit. For now, Keyrock’s research leaves readers with a simple countdown: hold the line, and the path to price discovery remains intact; lose it, and the proxy trade could unwind long before the New Year’s fireworks. At press time, BTC traded at $117,788. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin open interest has risen rapidly once again, with the price pushing above previous peaks to new all-time highs. The BTC price has also stayed over the $100,000 mark for an extended period of time, triggering a new wave of confidence that the cryptocurrency has found its bottom. This has led to crypto traders making their bets and driving the open interest up, pushing it back above December 2024 levels and May 2025 peaks. Bitcoin Open Interest Crosses $70 Billion Again Back in December 2024, the Bitcoin open interest had recorded a new milestone after the volume rose to over $70 billion, marking a new all-time high at the time. The Bitcoin price had also risen sharply at this time and was able to hit $100,000 for the first time in history, triggering even more interest in the asset. Related Reading: Last Crash Before The Surge: Why Bitcoin Is Set To Drop Below $107,000 However, once both the price and the open interest hit these milestones, it wasn’t long before the shorters began to take over the market. The Bitcoin price quickly plummeted back down below $100,000, and over the next few months, open interest would crash back down to the $40 billion territory, resulting in a 40% loss by May 2025. Now, once again, the Bitcoin open interest has crossed the $70 billion mark, sitting close to the $77 billion peak recorded back in May 2025, data from Coinglass shows. In the same vein, the BTC price has been able to maintain above $100,000 and has hit a new all-time high of $117,000. Going by historical performance, it is likely that the Bitcoin price will continue to rise from here, but this break to new all-time highs could carry bearish implications. This is because it is possible that the trend from December 2024 could play out once again. If this happens, then the Bitcoin price could retrace after hitting new highs, an expected correction as shorts pile up. BTC Price Risks Another Crash As the Bitcoin open interest continues to rise and the price has already broken out to new highs, the expectations of a downtrend have become stronger. NewsBTC reported that crypto analyst FriendlyRox expects the Bitcoin price to crash by almost 50%, putting the target as low as $60,000 by the time it’s done. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP’s Rise To $1,000 Will Happen A Lot Sooner Than Anticipated Crypto analyst and market expert Capo of Crypto has also joined the train, predicting a notable crash event that will send Bitcoin below $100,000 and obliterating altcoins in the process. This comes as institutions are piling into the crypto market, with Bitcoin in the lead, and Capo forecasts a possible ‘Black Swan’ event like the COVID crash. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high (ATH) yesterday, climbing to $111,999 on Binance exchange before dipping slightly to around $110,000 at the time of writing. While the broader trend remains bullish, some analysts now anticipate a short-term pullback. Bitcoin Remains Bullish But Some Pullback Expected According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisVest, early warning signs suggest that BTC may face a brief correction. The analyst noted that if momentum doesn’t pick up soon, Bitcoin could struggle to maintain its bullish trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heating Up? NVT Golden Cross Hints At Potential Local Top Binance taker buy/sell volume has shown a noticeable spike in aggressive buy orders – usually a bullish signal – but sell volume has also risen in tandem, effectively absorbing most of the demand. Despite this uptick in buy volume, BTC’s price has not responded proportionally, suggesting distribution or selling pressure. For the uninitiated, Binance taker buy/sell volume measures the amount of aggressive buying versus selling on the exchange using market orders. A higher taker buy volume indicates strong buyer interest, while higher taker sell volume signals stronger selling pressure. In addition, Binance open interest has surged during the recent price rally, signalling an influx of leveraged positions. While rising open interest can support further gains, the subdued price reaction raises concerns about Bitcoin’s short-term strength. Meanwhile, funding rates have stayed mostly neutral throughout the rally. However, the most recent push to a new ATH saw BTC’s funding rates turn slightly positive, hinting at increasing long exposure and renewed bullish sentiment. The breakout also triggered significant short liquidations, likely fuelling a short squeeze. Data from Coinglass shows that over the past 24 hours, $521 million in positions were liquidated – $448 million of which were shorts. Market Needs A Breather Before Climbing Higher Concluding, the CryptoQuant contributor noted that despite the emerging signs of caution, Bitcoin’s overall bullish structure remains intact. However, the market is now seeing the early signs of a potential short-term pullback, especially due to the spike-driven nature of the move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising Other analysts share a similar outlook for BTC. For example, crypto analyst Christian Chifoi suggested that the current price action may be a deceptive move designed to trap bullish traders – potentially pushing BTC down to $97,000 before the final rally begins. That said, the recent weakness observed in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fuelled hopes for a capital reallocation to alternative assets, including BTC. At press time, BTC trades at $110,885, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price action has shown intense strength in recent days to finally bounce fully from the weakness in late June. After briefly dipping into the low $108,000 range in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin managed to surge to a new all-time high of $112,022. According to data from Coinglass, this move was enough to cause over $470 million in short liquidations across the crypto market. Bitcoin’s latest price behavior has sparked a shift in sentiment and aligns with the argument that the window for shorting may have officially closed. According to crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto, it is now effectively “illegal” to short Bitcoin. New Bitcoin Impulse May Have Already Started Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto noted that it is now illegal to short Bitcoin. This comment comes alongside a 24-hour period of intense price activity, with on-chain data showing a trading volume of $60.15 billion.  Related Reading: Institutions Buy Bitcoin In Record Numbers, But Why Is Price Still Below $111,900 ATH? CrediBULL Crypto posted a detailed chart and technical analysis on X, explaining why he believes shorting Bitcoin is now a dangerous strategy. Notably, his analysis is based on the Elliott Wave count on the 8-hour candlestick timeframe chart. His previous wave analysis reflects two possible scenarios. The first involves a brief rejection above $110,000 followed by a corrective pullback toward the $102,000 zone, an area he highlighted as a key daily demand level. The outcome would be a sideways consolidation before the next major upward impulse. However, he has since acknowledged that Bitcoin may have already begun its next major leg up, which is the second scenario. This scenario bypasses the corrective phase in the first scenario entirely. As the analyst phrased it, “there is a non-zero chance that the next impulse up has already begun.” In either scenario, CrediBULL’s commentary stresses that the downside from current levels is limited, and shorting Bitcoin now is equivalent to fighting strong upward momentum. Why Shorting Bitcoin Now Is A Dangerous Bet It’s now illegal to short Bitcoin. Not in the literal legal sense, but because Bitcoin’s current structure no longer supports bearish bets. The current setup is one of a continuation above $111,000 in the coming days. If Bitcoin does clear the $111,000 to $112,000 range with enough conviction, it would confirm a vertical rise into wave 3 of a new Elliott impulse cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 52% Increase To $166,000, Analyst Reveals Tight Timeline Interestingly, the price target for this Wave 3 is around $130,000. A correction may follow from that level to form an impulse Wave 4 before Bitcoin enters another strong bullish leg. Then, finally, the most bullish scenario places Bitcoin on a final Wave 5 movement to $150,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,270. The downside is currently limited, and the focus now should be on identifying long opportunities rather than attempting to short what may be the early stages of another explosive rally. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has set a new all-time high (ATH) above $112,000, and if on-chain data is to go by, there is some real conviction behind the move. Bitcoin Realized Cap Shows ATH Breakout Not Just Speculative In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the “Realized Cap” of Bitcoin. The Realized Cap is a capitalization model that calculates the asset’s total value by assuming that the ‘true’ value of each coin in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Moving With Stocks, But Ethereum’s Correlation Is Fading This is different from the methodology that the usual market cap employs, where all tokens part of the supply are assigned the same value: the current Bitcoin spot price. The last transaction of any token is likely to represent the last time that it changed hands on the network, so the price at that time could be considered as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this value for all coins, its value essentially represents a net cost basis for the entire supply. In other words, the model can be looked at as a measure of the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the market cap is the value that the holders are carrying in the present. During the past day, the Bitcoin market cap saw a surge as the spot price set a new record. But what about the Realized Cap? “Unlike market cap, Realized Cap reflects actual capital inflows – only rising when coins move at higher prices,” notes the analytics firm. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode, showing whether or not real capital inflows occurred for Bitcoin with this rally: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has been following an upward trajectory for a while now, suggesting capital inflows have been coming into the asset. With the latest price surge, too, the metric has seen a leg up, corresponding to a whopping $4.4 billion flowing into the coin. “The $4.4B jump as $BTC broke a new ATH above $112K confirms real conviction behind the move, not just speculative markup,” explains the analytics firm. In some other news, the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is currently sitting around the 2.25 mark, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has pointed out in an X post. The MVRV Ratio measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and Realized Cap. From the chart, it’s visible that BTC encountered resistance the last few times the metric hit a value around 2.75. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? Right now, the 2.75 level corresponds to a spot price of $130,900. “This will essentially be the first selling pressure point,” says the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen some pullback since its ATH as its price has come back down to $110,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest hourly close may be offering more than meets the eye. With the 25- and 50-hour SMAs holding firm and the MACD showing renewed expansion, some analysts believe a breakout could be quietly brewing, and smart traders are starting to take notice. BTC’s Momentum Builds With Healthy Technical Backing In his latest 1-hour market update, Shaco AI noted that Bitcoin continues to humor the bulls, printing a strong close at $111,225.5. The price action has maintained a clear bullish bias, staying well above both the 25-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $110,147 and the 50-hour SMA at $109,420. This positioning suggests that BTC is building a solid base for continuation, with short-term trend followers likely remaining confident in the move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Moving With Stocks, But Ethereum’s Correlation Is Fading Furthermore, the MACD has widened impressively, with a gain of $589.72, reflecting persistent buying pressure and bullish sentiment. As the MACD histogram expands and signal lines diverge, it reinforces the idea that the bulls may be far from done, and dips could be viewed as buying opportunities. Shaco AI also pointed to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which now sits at 63.73. This level shows that the market is in a healthy bullish zone, strong enough to maintain upward momentum, but not yet in overbought territory that typically invites profit-taking or cooling off.  Adding confidence to the trend, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has hit 38.93, which Shaco AI emphasized as a key confirmation that the current trend has strength and durability. With all key indicators pointing to continued bullish structure, supported by rising momentum, trend alignment, and strong directional force, Bitcoin’s short-term technical picture remains decisively positive. The bulls are in control, and the chart suggests they may not be done pushing just yet. Breakout Or Breakdown? Bitcoin Poised At A Technical Crossroads Shaco AI, in his final remarks, highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching critical territory, marking resistance at $111,999.79 and support at $108,096.55 as the key zones to watch. He urged traders to “watch these like a hawk!” as price action around these levels could be decisive in determining BTC’s next major move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Resumes Upward Move — Can It Break New Highs? He also pointed out that trading volume has been unusually quiet, joking that it “seems to have missed some coffee breaks,” with just 395 units recorded compared to the average of 869. This lighter volume signals reduced conviction, which could lead to sudden volatility or fakeouts near those key zones. “Keep those eyes peeled for potential breakouts or retracements as BTC flirts with key levels, but do remember there’s caution in the air with this lighter trading volume,” the expert added. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Top analyst Aksel Kibar (CMT) believes Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment on the weekly chart. In a post shared on 9 July 2025, the veteran technician noted that BTC/USD is “holding right at the pattern boundary.” The annotated chart he released—covering Bitstamp weekly prices back to mid-2022—shows the cryptocurrency compressing directly beneath a horizontal resistance band at $109,000, the neckline of what he labels a six-month head-and-shoulders (H&S) continuation formation. Bitcoin Poised For $141,300 Kibar’s chart first revisits the basing sequence that reversed the 2022 bear cycle. A textbook inverse head-and-shoulders bottom completed in early-2023, with troughs at roughly $17,600 (left shoulder), $15,500 (head) and $19,500 (right shoulder). The breakout above the neckline sent Bitcoin to $31,400. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? Immediately thereafter, price stalled in a six-month rectangle bounded by $25,000 support and $31,400 resistance. The eventual topside resolution propelled the market to the rectangle’s implied target of $38,000, validating two consecutive classical projections in less than a year. Afterwards, the BTC price grinded higher. Below $73,700, BTC consolidated in a falling wedge, ending with a breakout toward $109,000. From that point, the initial pullback bottomed at $91,200, creating what Kibar designates as the left shoulder. A deeper descent to $76,500 carved out the head. Then, the Bitcoin price formed the right shoulder at $101,500, echoed by the blue bowl-shaped arc on the chart. Throughout this structure the neckline at $109,000 remained intact, acting as a clear demarcation between consolidation and fresh highs. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern spans roughly half a year, matching the analyst’s “6-month-long” annotation. Related Reading: Last Time This Happened, Bitcoin Jumped $50,000—Is History Repeating? Using the orthodox H&S continuation rule—adding the vertical distance from the head ($73,700) to the neckline ($109,000) to the breakout level—Kibar derives a price objective of $141,300. He notes in an X reply that this target is separate from the earlier $137,000 objective, which came from a larger cup-with-handle on the monthly scale. In other words, the shorter-term weekly pattern now projects modestly higher than the longer-term structure. At press time Bitcoin, Bitcoin traded near $111,000, surpassing the neckline. However, from a technician’s standpoint, the breakout still needs to confirm with the weekly close. Confirmation requires a decisive weekly settlement north of the $109,000 neckline. As Kibar notes: “Breakout needs to take place with a long white candle, similar to previous pattern completions. There should be no hesitation.” Invalidation would emerge on a weekly close back below the most recent swing-low support at $101,500; deeper failure beneath $91,2000 would unravel the pattern entirely. For now, Bitcoin sits at the fulcrum of its six-month equilibrium. A weekly candle or two should reveal whether the largest digital asset can convert yet another classical chart formation into a measured move—this time toward mid-six-figure territory. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price movement remains in focus as it continues to consolidate just below its previous all-time high. Despite a brief surge that brought it within range of its $111,000 peak, the asset has struggled to establish a breakout. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $108,927, representing a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours. The persistence of this consolidation phase comes amid growing market discussions around spot and derivatives behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know Binance Spot-Perpetual Delta Reflects Cautious Leverage One of the more notable on-chain observations comes from CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, who analyzed the prolonged negative delta between spot and perpetual prices on Binance. According to the analyst, this delta has remained in negative territory since December 2024. That means the spot price of Bitcoin has consistently traded above the perpetual futures price on Binance, an unusual structure during what appears to be a bullish market trend. “When the delta flipped negative last December, Bitcoin had just marked a then-ATH,” BorisVest noted. He explained that this divergence signaled an aggressive buildup of long positions in the perpetual market, just before Bitcoin corrected to $74,000. Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs recently, the delta still hasn’t reversed. “The sustained gap shows that leveraged traders have yet to commit to the rally in full,” he added. This trend could indicate a phase of accumulation in the spot market, which historically precedes stronger price movements. The analyst also warned that when perpetual prices eventually flip above spot prices, it may signal a shift toward a more speculative environment. In such scenarios, sudden price corrections could occur if long positions are unwound rapidly. Traders monitoring the spot-perpetual relationship can potentially use this as a signal to adjust their risk exposure. Dollar Weakness May Signal Tailwinds for Bitcoin Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted a macroeconomic trend that could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, the weakening US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, is currently trading at its most significant deviation below its 200-day moving average in over two decades. This decline coincides with rising US debt levels and has historically aligned with strength in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Darkfost pointed out that when the dollar loses its traditional safe-haven appeal, capital often flows toward alternative assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash To $92,000 Or New ATHs? Analyst Explains The 2 Options “Historical data shows that these periods have consistently benefited Bitcoin,” the analyst stated. While Bitcoin has yet to respond in full to this shift, the trend could support a future upward move, especially if liquidity continues to increase. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The US national debt recently hit a new all-time high (ATH), surging above $36.5 trillion and putting significant pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY). As the DXY struggles under the weight of mounting debt, crypto analysts believe capital may soon shift to risk-on assets like Bitcoin (BTC). DXY Breakdown Suggests Bitcoin Rally According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, the DXY has dropped to a historically weak level, currently trading 6.5 points below its 200-day moving average (MA) – the largest deviation in the past 21 years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Floor Rises Toward $100,000, Reinforcing Bullish Sentiment For the uninitiated, the DXY measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It is widely used as an indicator of USD strength or weakness and often influences investor sentiment across global financial markets. While a breakdown in the DXY might seem alarming at first, it historically benefits risk-on assets like BTC. A weakening dollar typically precedes capital rotation into alternative asset classes. Following that logic, the recent softness in the USD could prompt investors to reassess their portfolios – potentially increasing allocation to digital assets. Darkfost illustrated this point with the below chart. The chart highlights periods where the DXY traded below its 365-day MA. Historically, these phases have aligned with strong BTC price appreciation. The analyst added: We are currently in a phase where the weakness of the DXY could fuel a new rise in BTC but the price didn’t reacted yet. This tool serves as a valuable indicator for identifying early bull market phases and periods of euphoria, not because of pure technical triggers, but because it reflects increasing liquidity potentially flowing into crypto markets. According to data from CoingGecko, BTC is currently trading just about 2.2% below its ATH of $111,814 recorded on May 22. With BTC decisively breaking through a bullish flag, the flagship cryptocurrency looks set to hit a new ATH in the near-term. Some Warning Signs To Watch Out For Despite a favorable macro backdrop, several warning signs could dampen BTC’s bullish momentum. For instance, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand metric has recently turned negative. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising Similarly, some on-chain metrics suggest that the BTC rally may be running out of steam. Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross recently showed signs of a potential local top. That said, Bitcoin continues to show resilience, absorbing persistent selling pressure in the derivatives market and avoiding a breakdown below the $100,000 mark. At press time, BTC trades at $109,520, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to hover just below its previous all-time high, consolidating around the $109,000 mark despite a modest 1.9% gain over the past day. The asset reached a 7-day high of $110,307 but has yet to reclaim the historic high of $111,814, a level set back in May. While short-term price action remains within a tight range, on-chain data reveals deeper structural developments that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead. As attention focuses on Bitcoin’s potential for a breakout, some analysts are turning to supply dynamics for clues. One notable observation comes from CryptoQuant contributor Chairman Lee, who has identified a significant reduction in BTC held on centralized exchanges. This trend may serve as a key indicator of future price behavior, especially in the context of institutional demand and exchange activity. Related Reading: Last Time This Happened, Bitcoin Jumped $50,000—Is History Repeating? Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Drop to Multi-Year Lows Chairman Lee’s analysis highlights a continued decline in exchange-held Bitcoin, with reserves falling to a multi-year low of 2.4 million BTC. This figure is down from over 3.1 million BTC reported in mid-2023. The consistent drawdown in exchange balances is interpreted as a signal that selling pressure is decreasing, which historically has preceded price expansions. According to Lee, “This persistent decline in reserve levels suggests that sell-side liquidity is drying up… Historically, such conditions—where BTC held on exchanges is low—precede major bullish expansions as demand exceeds supply.” In past market cycles, including the 2020–2021 bull run, similar drops in exchange reserves were followed by sharp upward movements in Bitcoin’s price. The logic is based on basic supply-demand mechanics: when available BTC becomes scarce on exchanges, any increase in demand, particularly from ETFs or institutional buyers, can lead to accelerated price growth. Lee emphasizes that this current trend could act as a foundational tailwind, potentially supporting further gains if current demand patterns remain in place. Binance Dominates Whale Transaction Flows Another piece of the market structure puzzle comes from CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, who examined large-scale BTC transactions across major centralized exchanges. According to his report, Binance has maintained its position as the dominant venue for Bitcoin whale activity. Whale flows are defined in this context as daily inflows or outflows exceeding 1,000 BTC. Binance has recorded cumulative whale inflows of 31.36 million BTC and outflows of 30.82 million BTC, along with 53.2 million whale transactions, significantly more than any other exchange. Notably, these numbers do not reflect unique BTC, but rather total flow volumes that include repeated movements of the same coins. High transaction volumes suggest Binance is favored for its liquidity and infrastructure, allowing whales to engage in trading, custody shifts, and arbitrage with minimal friction. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? The data also places HTX Global and Kraken in the second and third positions, respectively, for whale inflows, though their volumes are substantially lower than Binance’s. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below its all-time high of $112K, holding firmly above key support at $105K despite repeated bearish attempts to push the price lower. This tight trading range reflects market uncertainty, yet the structure favors bulls as long as support levels remain intact. Related Reading: Ethereum Turns Key Resistance Into Support – Momentum Builds For Range Breakout Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions are evolving rapidly. The US Congress recently passed President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” economic package ahead of the self-imposed July 4 deadline, signaling a new phase of fiscal stimulus marked by tax cuts and aggressive spending. Combined with strong job reports, these factors suggest inflation may soon accelerate — a trend that historically supports Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation. On the market sentiment side, funding rates provide a crucial clue. According to top analyst On-Chain Mind, the 30-day average of Bitcoin perpetual funding rates is currently very low. This reflects a lack of excessive greed and typically marks a favorable setup for bullish continuation. Historically, periods of low funding rates have preceded major upward moves, especially when paired with strong macro tailwinds. With economic pressure building and Bitcoin still in a bullish structure, the coming days could define the next major move for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Calm Before The Breakout: Bitcoin Gains Strength Above $107K Bitcoin is up more than 3% since the start of July, holding firmly above the $107,000 local low despite repeated resistance at the $110,000 level. This sustained strength signals underlying buyer support and growing momentum as BTC continues to consolidate just below all-time highs. The $110K resistance remains a critical ceiling — once breached, analysts expect a strong move into price discovery as bullish momentum builds. So far, the market has digested a wave of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Global trade dynamics — including rising tariffs, export restrictions, and deglobalization trends — continue to shape sentiment. Yet, compared to the sharp volatility seen earlier this year, both Bitcoin and US equities appear more resilient. This suggests that much of the uncertainty has already been priced in, reducing the downside risk for risk assets like BTC. A key technical factor reinforcing the bullish case is the low 30-day average of funding rates. This indicator reflects a neutral-to-cautiously optimistic market environment — a stark contrast to overheated bullish phases that often precede corrections. Calm periods like this often set the stage for explosive moves, particularly when supply squeezes and strong demand meet a macro environment ripe for risk-taking. With BTC coiling tightly and sentiment balanced, a breakout could be imminent. Related Reading: ERC-20 Stablecoin Supply Hits All-Time High At $121B – Liquidity On The Rise BTC Holds Steady as Bulls Eye $109,300 Breakout The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) consolidating within a tight range, holding above the key support at $107,000 and testing resistance around $109,300. This price level has consistently acted as a local ceiling, with several failed breakout attempts in late June and early July. However, the bulls continue to defend higher lows, signaling strength and setting the stage for a potential breakout. The 50, 100, and 200 simple moving averages (SMAs) are stacked close together and gradually trending upward, suggesting the consolidation phase could soon transition into a more directional move. Volume remains low, which often precedes a volatility spike, especially near key resistance levels. Related Reading: Ethereum Risks Downside If Resistance Holds: $2,700 Level Is Critical The $103,600 support remains the crucial line in the sand for bulls. A breakdown below that level would invalidate the short-term bullish structure and likely lead to a deeper retrace. On the upside, a daily close above $109,300 with volume confirmation could trigger a rally toward price discovery above the all-time high. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has been showing notable correlation to the stock equities recently, but data shows Ethereum is charting a more independent path. Bitcoin & Ethereum Showing Different Degrees Of Correlation To Other Assets In a post on X, the institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock) has talked about how the latest Correlation Matrix has looked between the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and traditional markets. The “Correlation Matrix” here refers to an indicator that tells us how closely tied together the prices of two given assets currently are. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the assets are reacting to moves in each other by moving in the same direction to some degree. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger the relationship. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark implies there is a negative correlation between the two prices. That is, they are moving in opposite directions. For this side of the scale, the extreme point is -1. Naturally, the Correlation Matrix showing a value exactly equal to zero suggests there is no correlation whatsoever between the assets. In statistics, the two variables are said to be ‘independent’ in this case. Now, here is the table shared by Sentora that shows how the Correlation Matrix of Bitcoin and Ethereum stands with respect to some traditional markets: As is visible above, the index that Bitcoin and Ethereum have the strongest positive correlation to is DAX. That said, the Correlation Matrix stands at 0.46 for ETH, meaning that while some correlation does exist, it’s not too intense. This isn’t the case for Bitcoin, which has the indicator sitting at 0.85, indicating its price is pretty in tandem with DAX. Likewise, BTC has a notable correlation to other stock market indices, with a metric value of 0.7, 0.68, and 0.69 for the Russel 2000, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively. In contrast, Ethereum is almost fully independent from these indices, with the indicator standing quite close to zero for each of them. For US Dollar Index and VIX Index, the last two markets listed in the table, the Correlation Matrix is inside the negative zone for Bitcoin. This means that the digital asset has actively been moving against these indices. Related Reading: Ethereum ETF Inflows Hit 8-Week Streak—Institutions Still Buying “Right now, the spotlight is on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): if geopolitical and macro tensions drag the dollar lower, that backdrop could create room for another leg higher in BTC,” notes the analytics firm. Just like with the stocks, Ethereum is displaying little correlation to DXY and VIX, further reinforcing that the cryptocurrency has been following a trajectory of its own recently. BTC Price Bitcoin is mounting another bullish push as its price surges to $109,400, but it remains to be seen whether its fate will be any different from the weekend move. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

On Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a remarkable all-time high (ATH) of $112,022, breaking free from its previous consolidation phase and lower resistance levels.  Bitcoin Rally Faces Critical Test John Glover, the chief investment officer at crypto lending platform Ledn and a former managing director at Barclays Investment Bank, noted that the recent rally appears to be a retest of the previous all-time high set on May 22, which encountered selling pressure.  As some investors opted to take profits, notable publicly traded companies, including Trump Media & Technology Group and GameStop, have announced their intentions to purchase Bitcoin to bolster their treasuries.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts 50% “Moonshot” For XRP Price If This Line Breaks Glover emphasized that the competition among these companies to accumulate Bitcoin could significantly impact market dynamics, given that the cryptocurrency’s popularity among publicly traded companies appears to be growing. However, the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally largely hinges on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade negotiations. Sid Powell, CEO of crypto asset-management firm Maple, highlighted that any setbacks in trade discussions before President Donald Trump’s August 1 deadline could pose challenges for Bitcoin’s price movement.  Conversely, if trade negotiations progress and inflation continues to ease, the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates, which could further support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Scenarios For A Potential Breakout Toward $130,000 Market expert Doctor Profit recently took to social media, declaring that Bitcoin’s rally is just beginning. He confidently stated, “THE PARTY IS NOT OVER YET,” predicting a potential new all-time high soon.  His analysis indicates a target range of $120,000 to $130,000 for this cycle. According to Doctor Profit, two potential scenarios could pave the way for this breakout.  The first involves Bitcoin reaching the $113,000 to $114,000 range, followed by a correction to the $92,000 to $93,000 level, which aligns with a major liquidity pool and the CME gap. A rebound from this lower range could set the stage for a rapid ascent toward the $120,000 mark. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP’s Rise To $1,000 Will Happen A Lot Sooner Than Anticipated The second, more aggressive scenario suggests that Bitcoin could break through the $113,000 to $114,000 barrier and continue its upward momentum without revisiting lower liquidity levels.  In either case, the $113,000 to $114,000 range is critical, as the market’s reaction to this level will significantly influence the speed and direction of Bitcoin’s next leg. When writing, BTC has retraced back toward $111,422, attempting to make this level its new support floor for further price appreciation.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A new analysis shows that Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a calculated price crash that could take it below $107,000 before igniting the next bullish rally. The cryptocurrency market structure currently reflects a short-term bearish correction within a broader bullish trend, supporting the likelihood of a potential surge to new all-time highs soon.  Bitcoin Prepares For Final Dip Below $107,000 Crypto market expert, Tehi Thomas, in a recent TradingView post, suggested that Bitcoin’s current structure may be entering its final corrective phase. The analyst points to a potential price crash below the $107,000 level as part of a strategic play by smart money.  Related Reading: Bitcoin To Repeat Parabolic Phase From 2017 And 2021? Here’s The Target The analyst shared a chart showing Bitcoin forming consecutive lower highs while its price presses downwards. Across these highs, the market is also respecting a descending trendline, a pattern which often indicates short-term bearish pressure. Notably, this trendline appears to be serving as a potential trap designed to engineer a liquidity grab and discount entry.  Thomas notes that once the key zone and sell-side liquidity area around $107,800 is taken, Bitcoin’s price is expected to dip into a nearby Fair Value Gap (FVG), extending down to the $106,500-$106,200 region. This FVG overlaps with critical Fibonacci levels, particularly the 0.786 retracement near $106,200, strengthening the confluence for a potential reversal point.  Thomas has highlighted this $106,200 level as a high-probability buy zone, where institutions may re-enter the market. Notably, the analyst’s anticipated price correction for Bitcoin is not seen as a breakdown of structure or market failure, but rather a calculated liquidity grab to fill inefficiencies left from the previous lag. As long as the price respects the $106,000 range and displays bullish order flow afterward, its projected correction is expected to complete the accumulation phase.  All-Time Highs In Sight After Key Reversal Following Bitcoin’s projected sweep and fill of the FVG, the cryptocurrency is expected to form a reversal structure that could kick off the next major rally. Despite the projected crash below $107,000, Thomas asserts that Bitcoin’s overall macro trend remains bullish. Moreover, this short-term pullback is considered a setup for a much larger move toward a new all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 52% Increase To $166,000, Analyst Reveals Tight Timeline Thomas’s chart marks the $110,500 zone as the final magnet and ATH target, with a significant layer of untapped liquidity above it. The analyst’s thesis is that once the sell-side pressure is exhausted and displacement confirms the shift in direction, Bitcoin could once again regain bullish momentum.  Furthermore, the TradingView expert has pointed out that the FVG near $106,200 acts as both a liquidity magnet and a springboard, set to launch the flagship cryptocurrency into price discovery mode once again. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $108,744, meaning a potential surge to the projected ATH level at $110,500 will represent a 1.61% increase.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

With one week already gone in the month of July, Ethereum has already begun to perform better than Bitcoin. While the gap is still very close, the outperformance of Ethereum over Bitcoin for only the second time this year could signal the entrance of better things for the altcoin market. If this continues, then an altcoin season might be on the horizon, as historical data shows it always begins with ETH outperforming BTC. So, let’s take a look at how both assets have been performing. Ethereum Barrels Ahead Of Bitcoin In July So far, in the month of July, the Ethereum price has been putting in more green candles, suggesting that bulls are making their move again. This has led to a small outperformance when compared to the Bitcoin price over this time period and could be the signal that altcoin season could be starting soon. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Price Could See 180% Explosion As This Indicator Flashes Bullish Divergence Data from the CryptoRank website shows that Ethereum is already up more than 2.50% since the start of July. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price, while having seen some price increases, is up only 1.20% at the time of this writing. Thus, Ethereum is already performing better in the month of July. If this outperformance continues, then this would be only the second time that the Ethereum price will be doing better than the Bitcoin price so far in 2025. The first was back in May, when the Ethereum price rallied by over 41% in one month. This was major compared to Bitcoin’s 11.1% move in that month. However, while the Bitcoin rally in the month of May saw its price reach new all-time highs, Ethereum continues to struggle and remains below its $4,800 all-time high levels. Nevertheless, Ethereum’s rally did translate to bullishness for the altcoin market as the likes of PEPE and BONK rallied by more than 100% in response to this. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Repeat Parabolic Phase From 2017 And 2021? Here’s The Target Given that Ethereum has led the altcoin season in the past, its outperformance of Bitcoin at this level remains a positive. If it continues, then the altcoin market could start to see further increases in price. And if Ethereum rises another 41% from here, it would put it right on the path to $4,000. However, the month of July has not historically been the best month for Ethereum, with an average return of +5.13%. The whole of the third quarter of the year is also a mixed bag for the altcoin, with an equal number of green and red closes over the last decade. Thus, it remains to be seen how the ETH price will perform this quarter and if it can successfully outpace Bitcoin. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Binance Exchange Reserve has diverged between Bitcoin and the stablecoins. Here’s what this could mean for the market. Bitcoin & Stablecoin Exchange Reserves Have Decoupled On Binance In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the Binance Exchange Reserve for Bitcoin and the stablecoins. The “Exchange Reserve” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the total amount of a given asset that’s sitting on the wallets attached to a centralized exchange. When the value of this metric rises, it means the holders are making net deposits of the asset to the platform. Generally, investors use exchanges when they want to participate in trading activities, so them making inflows could signal appetite for trading the coin away. Related Reading: Ethereum ETF Inflows Hit 8-Week Streak—Institutions Still Buying For cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, this is something that can naturally have a bearish impact on the price. The same, however, isn’t true in the case of the stablecoins, as they are, by definition, always stable around the same value as the fiat currency that they are pegged to. Investors usually store their capital in the form of these tokens when they want to avoid the volatility associated with assets like Bitcoin. Many of them, however, plan to eventually return back to the volatile side. Once they have decided to make the switch, they transfer their stablecoins to exchanges. When they make the swap to a coin like Bitcoin, its price naturally observes a buying boost. As such, stablecoin inflows can be bullish for the volatile cryptocurrencies. Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Exchange Reserve of Binance for Bitcoin and the stablecoins over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Binance Exchange Reserve for the two asset classes showed some correlation in 2024. But by the end of the year, a shift had occurred, with the stablecoins witnessing sharp inflows and Bitcoin outflows. The two have remained decoupled in 2025 so far, although their trends no longer diverge as extremely. The stablecoin Binance exchange reserve has recently been trending sideways, while the one for Bitcoin has rapidly been moving down. Related Reading: Dogecoin Resistance Walls Ahead: Analyst Flags 3 Key Levels Thus, it would appear that there is a large amount of fiat-tied tokens on the exchange potentially waiting to be deployed into the volatile side and at the same time, investors are also pulling out BTC supply, hinting at ongoing accumulation. This could hint at bullish conditions aligning on the largest cryptocurrency exchange, but it only remains to be seen whether the setup would reflect in the Bitcoin price or not. BTC Price Bitcoin is holding steady as its price is still trading around the $108,800 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000 since May 7, aside from a few dips to as low as $98,000 in June, which were quickly followed by daily candle closes above the $100,000 level. Recent analysis reveals that BTC has withstood sustained selling pressure on Binance Derivatives throughout this period. Bitcoin Withstands Binance Derivatives Sell-Off According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisVest, taker users on Binance Derivatives have consistently engaged in sell-side activity for at least the past 45 days. Notably, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has remained negative throughout this time. For the uninitiated, the CVD measures the net difference between market buy  – aggressive buying – and market sell – aggressive selling – orders over time. It helps traders identify whether buying or selling pressure is dominating, even if price remains stable. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Floor Rises Toward $100,000, Reinforcing Bullish Sentiment BorisVest noted that Binance Derivatives traders are treating each BTC bounce or rally as a selling opportunity, opening aggressive short positions via market sell orders. However, this strong sell pressure has failed to push prices lower, as BTC continues to absorb the selling activity and maintain support above $100,000. The analyst added that as long as BTC remains within its current range – between $100,000 and $110,000 – while absorbing sell pressure, the potential for upside remains intact. He explained: The CVD metric plays a crucial role here. It aggregates both taker and maker activity to provide a real-time picture of net buy/sell pressure. The fact that CVD remains in decline confirms the dominance of sell-side flow. Yet, the inability of price to drop further despite this pressure may signal that Bitcoin is being absorbed by institutional or large players in the background. That said, other analysts interpret the persistent selling pressure differently. For example, fellow CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk recently observed that new buyer demand is struggling to keep pace with the combined supply pressure from newly mined BTC and selling by long-term holders. BTC Eyeing A Breakout Ahead? Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of heavy selling on Binance Derivatives has once again sparked speculation about a potential breakout. Several additional data points suggest that BTC may be poised to move into a higher price range soon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forming Inverse Head And Shoulders Pattern – Is $150,000 The Next Target? For instance, recent on-chain data shows that “weak hands” are offloading their BTC holdings to larger, more established investors – indicating a broader shift in sentiment favoring Bitcoin. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the asset continues to grow. Additionally, the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend suggests that BTC could top out around $205,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $108,589, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market appears to be coiling for a major move, according to prominent crypto analyst CrediBull Crypto (@CredibleCrypto), who highlighted today via X that over 80% of all Bitcoin in existence is currently being held by long-term investors—levels of supply constraint previously seen only at major inflection points in Bitcoin’s price history. Why No One’s Selling Bitcoin In his post, CrediBull noted, “The only 2 times in Bitcoin’s 15 year history that this % was higher was at 43k before a $30,000 impulse to 73k and at 58k before a $50,000 impulse to 105k+.” Drawing on this historical precedent, he concluded that the market is poised for another massive leg up: “When the majority of $BTC total circulating supply is cornered by ‘diamond hands’, price moves up aggressively at the hint of any ‘new’ demand.” With “excess” supply now redistributed to long-term holders and institutional entities such as Bitcoin treasury companies increasingly taking the lead, the analyst sees a clear signal: “The next impulse IS IMMINENT. This next one will also likely be even bigger than the last two ($50,000+). Who’s ready for 150k+ Bitcoin?” Related Reading: 2025’s Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trigger Is Still Hidden, Expert Reveals The optimism is not without a technical underpinning. In a previous post, CrediBull addressed the current market structure and his own Elliott Wave-based scenario planning: “My original count/idea shared a few days ago had us rejecting at range highs above 110k and seeing a pullback down to the BLUE zone at 102k-ish before moving sideways for a few more weeks before the next impulse begins.”However, the analyst acknowledged a significant alternative possibility: “I do still think this scenario is probable, I also recognize that there is a non-zero chance that the next impulse up has already begun (most bullish scenario depicted).” Given the price action and structure, CrediBull argued that the risk-reward profile no longer favors bearish positioning. “In either case, downside is relatively limited on Bitcoin from current levels imo and so focus should be on identifying potential long opps on Bitcoin rather than looking to short clear strength.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know He punctuated the point with a rhetorical jab: “Why is it now illegal to short Bitcoin? Because there is a non-zero chance that the next impulse up has already begun.” Adding a layer of technical confirmation, analyst Axel Adler Jr provided a concurrent signal from volatility metrics. Adler pointed to a significant Bollinger Bands squeeze underway, writing: “The range between the upper and lower boundaries has fallen to 7.7%—one of the lowest values throughout the entire bull cycle.” Such compressions in volatility historically precede large directional moves. Adler explained, “The decrease in volatility indicates energy accumulation in the market; the price is ready for a rally, and in an upward trend environment, the chances of an upward breakout are significantly higher.” In the current cycle, Adler has identified six episodes of such squeezes. Four were immediately followed by strong price appreciation, while the remaining two saw brief corrections before continuing upward. The takeaway: “Based on this experience, the current squeeze most likely foreshadows another upward impulse, although a small consolidation before the move is also not ruled out.” With long-term holders now controlling an overwhelming share of supply, bullish technical compression in play, and institutional adoption continuing to absorb circulating coins, the environment CrediBull describes echoes past moments of explosive upside. While nothing is guaranteed, the combination of on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s next chapter may already be beginning—quietly, beneath the surface. At press time, BTC traded at $108,738. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent price action is holding firm above the $108,000 level despite a string of minor pullbacks in recent trading sessions. Notably, CoinGecko data shows that the Bitcoin price has climbed to an intraday high of $109,116, but it wasn’t able to hold above and has retreated slightly lower at the time of writing.  Volatility has been relatively subdued for Bitcoin above $106,000. However, Doctor Profit, a well-followed crypto analyst, believes Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure, and he outlined two likely paths for the next major move. Bull Flag And Breakout To $130,000 With Retest The first scenario outlined by Doctor Profit involves a breakout to a price level between $113,000 and $114,000, which would take Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the process. However, this all-time high would be very brief. According to this scenario, a sharp correction is expected to follow once Bitcoin reaches this range.  Related Reading: Analyst Shares Bitcoin Cheat Sheet Showing When The Bull Run Begins This correction will send the price back down into the $92,000 to $93,000 range to fill a CME gap and tap into a major liquidity pool. Rather than causing panic, the analyst views this move as part of a bullish continuation. This potential retracement zone is clearly marked on Doctor Profit’s daily candlestick chart with the message “Add more if market allows.” The pullback, if it happens, would serve to reset the market and initiate a bounce before Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory to $120,000 again. Direct Rally To $120,000 Without Retest The second path skips the correction altogether. In this scenario, Bitcoin breaks through the flag resistance to rally past $113,000. From there, the scenario sees Bitcoin continuing upward without returning to the lower support zones. The move hinges on the ability of Bitcoin to gain momentum rapidly and lead to a strong push toward $120,000. Doctor Profit points out that this option is a more aggressive bullish continuation, and both scenarios are valid for bullish price targets in the long term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 52% Increase To $166,000, Analyst Reveals Tight Timeline He also debunked fears surrounding the sudden movement of a dormant Satoshi-era whale wallet containing 80,000 BTC. The analyst believes the transfer was likely an over-the-counter deal between a large private entity and an institution or government and not a sign of looming sell pressure. Volatility is going to be very low in the coming days, as there are no macro market events that can cause price volatility. FOMC meeting minutes are due Wednesday, and there are going to be US unemployment claims on Thursday, but both are low-volatility events. Nonetheless, the $113,000 to $114,000 price range is the most important level to watch in both scenarios. What follows from there, a sharp correction or a straight continuation, will define the speed of the next leg to $120,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,270. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a conversation with The Bitcoin Economy podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart argued that the next, and potentially largest, leg of institutional demand for spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will not come from pension funds, endowments, or sovereign wealth managers. Instead, it will arise when the country’s fragmented network of registered investment advisers (RIAs) finally gains full discretionary clearance to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to ordinary clients. “The biggest bull case for the ETFs has been the unlocking of RIAs in 2025,” Seyffart said. “Right now the vast majority of the assets are stuck in that middle ground where, if a client specifically asks to buy a Bitcoin ETF, the adviser can act—but the adviser cannot initiate the recommendation.” The Biggest Bull Case For Bitcoin In 2025 Seyffart broke the compliance bottleneck into a traffic-light schema that most financial advisers will recognise. A red-light firm bars Bitcoin entirely; a yellow-light firm permits unsolicited purchases (“If you come to me and ask for it, I can do it”); and a green-light firm allows the adviser to solicit an allocation (“I can recommend that you put two percent of your portfolio in Bitcoin”). Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know Wire-house broker–dealers—which still custody trillions of dollars—largely remain in the red or yellow camps, paralysed by multi-year due-diligence committees. Independent RIAs, by contrast, “were the early adopters,” Seyffart noted, because they “don’t have to wait for a due-diligence team of a bunch of people sitting in New York.” Yet even among independents, most advisers outsource portfolio construction to centralised model portfolios; until those models flag Bitcoin ETFs as eligible holdings, discretionary uptake will stay muted. Seyffart’s focus on 2025 is calendrical, not calendrical: the first full-calendar year after launch gives compliance teams twelve months of daily NAV history—often a hard requirement before a new ETF can graduate from yellow to green status. “Usually it can take two to three years before an ETF gets approved,” he said, but the extraordinary size and liquidity of the spot-Bitcoin cohort is already accelerating that cycle. Crucially, the next Form 13F reporting deadline on 15 August 2025 will reveal second-quarter holdings as of 30 June. Seyffart expects the data to confirm that “a lot more RIAs have come online and [are] buying this for their clients,” providing the first concrete measure of green-light conversions. Related Reading: Bitcoin In For Another 460% Run? This Rare Fiat Signal Just Returned If the gatekeeping retreats, model-portfolio architects can incorporate Bitcoin’s historically uncorrelated returns into strategic-allocation frameworks. That in turn would grant advisers legal cover to solicit Bitcoin exposure, unleashing a flywheel of inflows. Seyffart cautioned that the same compliance teams will demand iron-clad fiduciary justifications—volatility, custody and tax treatment remain live concerns—but he argued that the ETFs now provide a wrapper familiar to any wealth platform. Seyffart’s thesis is that the moment a critical mass of compliance committees flips from yellow to green—allowing advisers to recommend Bitcoin rather than merely transact it—flows could dwarf everything seen to date. Whether that inflection arrives in the next 12 months will determine, in his view, “the biggest bull case for Bitcoin.” At press time, BTC traded at $108,250. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the Bitcoin price holding up quite nicely above $100,000 and remaining very close to its all-time high levels, there continues to be expectations of a massive crash that would rock the market. Pseudonymous crypto analyst FriendlyRox points to a number of indicators for this, going from volume to momentum, all pointing to a possible price crash. What is the expected result of this? Losing the $100,000 psychological level and then falling to previous peaks. Bitcoin Price At Risk With Dwindling Volume And Momentum In the analysis, FriendlyRox highlighted the decline in major metrics such as momentum and volume as the major driver of the forecasted price crash. This comes amid bullish news dominating the headlines, such as institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings and supply on exchanges falling toward new lows, meaning investors are choosing to hold for higher prices. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For Explosive Breakout: $5,791 The Minimum Target–Analyst The decline in the volume has been apparent after the Bitcoin price had fallen below $100,000 before bouncing back up in June. So far, in the month of July, the Bitcoin trading volumes have trended lower, with data from Coinglass showing consistent daily volumes below $100 billion. At the same time, there has also been a decline in momentum, with the analyst pointing out a negative divergence in this metric. Furthermore, the Bitcoin price has also flashed a historical trend that has usually predated market tops. This is price reaching the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and then retracing. FriendlyRox revealed that in the past, whenever the price touched the 50 EMA and then extended back, it usually signalled a crash, and the Bitcoin price has done this now, extending even further. Other metrics that have also flashed bearishness include the RSI and the MACD, both of which are now showing a loss of momentum as they moved into the negative. All of these factors happening together at the same time have painted a pretty bleak picture for the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. BTC Bottom Targets With the lineup of bearish developments, the crypto analyst has predicted an approximately 50% from here. As volume continues to decrease and momentum slides into the negative, they expect that the Bitcoin price will be looking to retrace back to the 50 EMA. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Hold $106,000 And $98,000 To Avoid Breakdown The interesting fact here is that the 50 EMA falls below the previous Bitcoin price peak, putting it at $60,000. A crash of this magnitude would only be rivaled by the COVID crash in 2020 and the FTX-induced market crash back in 2022. But nevertheless, it would mean a wipeout for altcoins across the board. As for the timeframe for when this could happen, there is no definite timeline. Going by the analyst’s chart, it could take a couple of years for this to completely play out, with the analyst closing with: “Let us see how it unfolds.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the Bitcoin proxy firm co-founded by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, has made headlines once again on Monday, but not for its usual Bitcoin acquisitions, but for its notable absence of purchases during the week of June 30 to July 6.  This marks the first time since late March that the largest corporate holder of BTC has not added to its impressive treasury, which currently stands at 597,325 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $64.71 billion. Strategy Bitcoin Investment Hits A Pause The lack of activity in Bitcoin acquisitions is surprising, especially given Strategy’s aggressive purchases over the past few months. These purchases have brought the company close to holding nearly 3% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply. From April 7 through June 29, the company invested $6.77 billion in acquiring 69,140 BTC, averaging about $97,906 per coin. At current market prices, these investments have appreciated by 10.4%, now worth around $7.49 billion. Related Reading: XRP Could Hit $35 If It Captures A Quarter Of Remittance Market By 2029 In terms of trading, Strategy’s stock (trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol MSTR) saw a slight decline of 0.7% during morning trading hours, which is in line with the 0.8% drop in Bitcoin prices. As of this writing, MSTR closed the day at $395. This highlights the close relationship between the company’s performance and the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. However, the company’s stock has enjoyed a rise of 38.5% in 2025, outpacing BTC’s 16.1% increase and the S&P 500’s modest gain of 6.1%. Up To $4.2 Billion For Future BTC Investments In addition to this pause in BTC purchases, Strategy did not issue any new common or preferred shares during the specified week. However, the company announced a sales agreement to potentially issue and sell up to $4.2 billion in 10% preferred stock.  According to Monday’s press release on the matter by the Bitcoin proxy firm, the proceeds from this sales agreement are earmarked for general corporate purposes, which include future BTC acquisitions and working capital needs. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Repeat Parabolic Phase From 2017 And 2021? Here’s The Target The new preferred stock, known as Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock, will be sold in a “disciplined manner,” taking market conditions into account, highlighting the firm’s ongoing commitment to leveraging its financial strategies to enhance its BTC holdings, even as it temporarily steps back from direct purchases. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $107,855, marking a 1.5% decline within the last 24 hours, increasing the gap between the current price and its record by 3.5%. This follows a failed attempt last week to overcome the cryptocurrency’s most significant resistance level of $110,000 and establish a new all-time high above its current record of $111,800. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com