Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for the past 25 days, a sign that could point toward returning demand from American institutional traders. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Gap Has Been Climbing Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. This indicator measures the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). When the value of this metric is above zero, it means the cryptocurrency is going for a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance. Such a trend implies the users of the former may be applying a higher amount of buying pressure (or a lower amount of selling pressure) as compared to that of the latter. On the other hand, the indicator being underwater suggests the Binance traders may be the ones participating in a higher amount of accumulation as they have pushed BTC to a higher rate relative to Coinbase. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-hour MA of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap fell deep into the negative zone during the asset’s decline from its January high, suggesting selling on Coinbase may have been the driver behind the price drop. Coinbase users affecting the asset’s trajectory isn’t anything new for the market. In fact, since the start of 2024, there has tended to be some correlation between the Coinbase Premium Gap and BTC’s spot price. This may be because of the fact that the exchange is the main destination of institutional investors based in the United States. Even the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) use the platform as their custodian. From the chart, it’s visible that while the metric was inside the red zone earlier in the year, a shift started to occur toward the end of February, with the indicator’s 30-hour MA value flipping into the positive region. Since then, it has steadily been going up inside the zone, indicating the cryptocurrency’s price on Coinbase has risen relative to the Binance market. “The Coinbase Premium Gap just logged 25 consecutive days in positive territory, the longest streak since October 2025,” noted the analyst. Bitcoin has shown some recovery alongside these green values, a potential sign that American institutional entities may once again be playing a role in the market. BTC Price Bitcoin surged above $75,000 earlier in the week, but the coin has since gone through a retrace as its price is now floating around $70,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund's tokenized share class runs on Base as the $3.5 trillion fund services giant Apex applies tokenization across its business.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has reiterated his $250,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin. With Bitcoin trading around $70,100, that target would imply roughly 256.5% upside from current levels and a clean break above its previous peak at $126,000 from October 2025. Reiterating Bullish Predictions Arthur Hayes is one of the most outspoken bullish proponents for Bitcoin. He has, on multiple occasions, pointed to Bitcoin breaking above $200,000 among his long-term bullish expectations for the asset. That earlier stance has now been reaffirmed in a recent YouTube interview. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Still Bearish And Price Is Headed Below $50,000; Analyst Given how Bitcoin’s price action has unfolded since those earlier calls, Hayes was pressed on whether his outlook had changed in a recent YouTube interview. Hayes was asked whether his Bitcoin prediction for 2026 has changed, and his response left little room for interpretation. He stated that he would “go the same number,” repeating his $250,000 Bitcoin target by the end of the year. The consistency in his outlook shows that his conviction has not changed despite recent price fluctuations and the inability of Bitcoin’s correction to find a bottom. Although the $250,000 prediction did not come with a direct breakdown at that moment, Hayes has always given different reasons as to why he is bullish in other similar predictions. He has previously noted that a prolonged US-Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to print more money, which in turn would have a ripple effect in driving the Bitcoin price higher. Can Bitcoin Reach $250,000 In 2026? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,100 and now seems to have registered a bottom just above $61,000. Therefore, a move to $250,000 would push Bitcoin far above its previous high at $126,000 and establish a completely new price range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Flashed The Most Powerful Fractal In The Market, Here’s What To Expect Recent price action shows that Bitcoin has struggled to break out of its current consolidation, repeatedly moving within a broad $60,000 to $74,000 band without a decisive trend in either direction. A rally to $250,000 would require Bitcoin to first clear its current range and then reclaim higher price zones that were lost during the correction from its 2025 peak. Technical analysis suggests that once Bitcoin breaks through certain supply gaps above $76,000, then it could rally fast due to thinner resistance. Hayes had earlier projected a bigger Bitcoin target in the $500,000 to $750,000 range by the end of 2026, with his prediction based on escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, he has also noted a bit of caution for Bitcoin while speaking at another similar podcast interview. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said, stating he would only become a buyer when the Federal Reserve begins easing. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
While bitcoin has shown relative strength against gold since the war in Iran broke out, investors are better off holding off "dry powder" while prices swing wildly on headlines, said Wintermute's Bryan Tan.
Bitcoin tended to show muted performance on quadruple witching days in 2025, followed by weakness in the days to weeks after.
Nearly $600M in deep out-of-the-money puts highlights tail-risk positioning, though flows point more to volatility strategies than to outright bearish bets.
Bitcoin’s biggest limitation is being challenged as OpNet brings native, yield-generating DeFi directly to the Bitcoin mainnet.
Bitcoin is back at a point where the next move may carry more importance than an ordinary resistance test. The latest rebound has pulled the price back into a zone that could be the line between a continued recovery and another leg lower, especially as it is still early to judge whether the bounce from the yearly low has real strength behind it. Now, all eyes are on one specific zone that could either launch Bitcoin to a new all-time high or send it to another yearly low. A Roadmap Playing Out In Real Time The setup comes from a technical outlook shared by analyst Crypto Patel, who noted that Bitcoin has now entered its most important zone of 2026. The reaction inside the current order block will determine whether Bitcoin can continue building back to the upper resistance bands or slip into another breakdown sequence. That view is coming as Bitcoin broke above $75,000 again following weeks of trading below the level. Related Reading: XRP Trend Exhaustion Says Price Is About To Jump, Here’s The Target Crypto Patel’s prediction strategy is built around Bearish Order Block 1, a zone running from $74,567 to $79,289. According to his roadmap, Bitcoin already reclaimed $76,000 and pushed through the previous $74,000 resistance, confirming the bounce he had mapped from the $60,000 support area. The chart that accompanied his post presents this range as the first major test of the current rebound. Price is shown climbing out of a local low near $59,809 and moving straight into that overhead supply region. A projected path on the chart suggests two very different outcomes from here. One path shows Bitcoin getting rejected in this first order block and rolling over into a break of structure that could drag price back to the range in the low-$50,000s. The other shows Bitcoin pushing through the zone, establishing a higher low, and then making a run into the next resistance cluster. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X New All-Time High Within Reach If Structure Holds The bullish scenario for this technical analysis. Bitcoin needs to break through Bearish Order Block 1 and keep building. If that happens, then the next upside target is in Bearish Order Block 2, which is between $86,000 and $90,600. Related Reading: Ex-UK Prime Minister Blasts Bitcoin, Here’s What He Said The analyst also placed a change-of-character level at about $97,900 and noted that a higher-timeframe close above that region would be bullish. That would mean Bitcoin is no longer just bouncing inside the structure. Bitcoin closed around $73,926 on March 17 and around $71,256 on March 18, which means the price action is still close enough to Patel’s first decision zone for every small move there to matter. The bearish case is just as straightforward and probably more immediate. A rejection inside the $74,567 to $79,289 band could send Bitcoin into a fresh yearly low. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Developers are already working to address quantum risks, and investors shouldn’t mistake a long-term challenge for an immediate threat, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn.
Bitcoin fell 2% while gold and silver saw sharper declines as oil prices surged and the Fed flashed hawkish signals.
Bitcoin could be vulnerable to another sharp leg lower if a developing wedge pattern breaks down, according to market technician Aksel Kibar, whose latest chart work points to a possible move toward $52,500. The warning matters because Kibar is not framing this as a macro hot take or a sentiment call, but as a pure technical risk signal built around the same structure he flagged before Bitcoin’s earlier selloff. In one of his latest posts on X, Kibar wrote: “See my analysis at the time of the previous bearish wedge pattern. A similar pattern might be developing. Not a prediction. Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move towards 52.5K.” That caveat is central to the setup. He is not saying Bitcoin must trade there. He is saying a confirmed loss of structure (currently around $66,000) would open that path on the chart. History Repeating For Bitcoin? Kibar paired that with a broader point about trade management rather than directional conviction. “If you got in with a chart signal, you should get out with the chart signal,” he wrote. In a follow-up, he added: “How can charting be used as a risk management tool? By moving to the sidelines when the time is not right, protects capital, frees it for other opportunities.” Read together, the message is less about calling a dramatic collapse than about respecting invalidation when a technical setup fails. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Rare Zone Against Gold, Fidelity Says The backdrop is a call Kibar made on Jan. 19, when Bitcoin was consolidating beneath what he treats as its long-term trend filter, the 365-day EMA. At the time, with price trading inside a rising wedge and getting rejected near the upper boundary around $97,000, he wrote: “The consolidation below the long-term average. With cryptocurrencies I’m taking the 365 day EMA. With equities I take 200 day EMA as my year-long average trend filter. So far BTCUSD respected the year-long average. This is part of the chop and search for a base. The pattern can become a rising wedge, usually bearish in an attempt to test 73.7K-76.5K support area.” That support zone eventually came under pressure, and the chart he reposted now shows a deeper washout toward the $60,000 area before the latest rebound began tracing what he says may be a similar wedge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term MVRV Remains In ‘Opportunity’ Zone: Data Notably, Kibar is one of the most respected technical analysts on X. He is a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts LLC, and before launching his own research firm he worked as a senior technical analyst and fund manager at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, as well as a portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi Investment Company. The CMT Association also lists him as a presenter and contributor. For Bitcoin traders, the immediate implication is straightforward. When Kibar speaks, the market tends to pay attention. As long as price remains inside the wedge or breaks out, bulls have little to worry about. But a break below $66,000 could open the door to another drawdown toward $52,000. At press time, BTC traded at $70,259. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price broke above $75,000 earlier this week, marking the highest level for the pioneer cryptocurrency for over one month. But while this move has led to an improvement in the overall investor sentiment, it could end up being a trap. This is called out by analyst TheOnePct, who explained that the correct move could end up being part of a larger Flat correction that began years ago. In this case, it would only be a matter of time before the Bitcoin price falls again. Bitcoin Break Confirms Structural Weakness The analysis follows the Bitcoin price movement since 2021, expressing that this current move is still part of the correction that began almost five years ago after the 2021 bull market. Instead of marking the bottom for BTC, the crypto analyst explains that it is likely a B-wave of the Flat correction. Related Reading: Can Avalanche’s AVAX Rise From The Dead? The Zone That Could Change Everything The current price movements, the analyst suggests, are actually ‘structurally consistent’ with this Flat correction. One of the things that seems to correlate is the fact that the Bitcoin price has been seeing very aggressive declines. It coincides with the C-wave of a flat correction, which spells even more bad luck for the cryptocurrency. Another thing the analyst calls out is that the current C-wave looks to be terminal in nature. This simply means that the current trend is inherently corrective. As a result, it is likely that the price will reverse and fall further even after the correction. What To Expect Interpreting the decline of the Bitcoin price, the analyst says the trend suggests that Wave 1 has actually not bottomed. If that is the case, then the recovery into the $70,000s may only be temporary in nature. Not only this, but that the digital asset is likely forming a Diametric pattern. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s 1,549% Spike: Can Bulls Take Control Again And Trigger An Explosive Rally? Going by this, the crypto analyst says that the Bitcoin price is likely moving through Wave F, which could end up being more complex in terms of the sideways movement. Eventually, though, this is expected to end in a decline, leading into Wave G. Wave G is more bearish than the previous wave, and as the price begins to move through, it is expected to fall below $60,000, bottoming somewhere around $55,000. “BTC has already shown clear structural weakness, and that weakness is likely to continue hunting the market for quite some time,” the analyst said. “Because of this, the market may remain in a bearish environment for longer than most expect.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
OGs sell as Fed's hawkish stance on rates pressures crypto and other risk assets.
On-chain data shows the 365-day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has recently been sitting deep inside the negative zone, implying long-term buyers are underwater. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Suggests 1-Year Holders Still In Pain In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the short-term and long-term Bitcoin returns have been looking from the perspective of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This indicator keeps track of the ratio between the Market Cap of BTC and its Realized Cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Profit-Taking Ramps Up As Price Breaks $74,000 The Market Cap here is simply the total value of the Bitcoin circulating supply at the current spot price. This metric can be considered as an estimate of the value that the investors as a whole are carrying in the present. The Realized Cap, in contrast, measures the value that the holders initially put into the cryptocurrency. It does so by summing up the last blockchain transaction price of each token in circulation. As the MVRV Ratio compares the two metrics, its value essentially tells us about the profit-loss status of the network. When the indicator is greater than 1, it means the investors as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the dominance of loss in the market. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire network isn’t of interest, but rather that of two segments of it: 30-day and 365-day buyers. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the metric separately for the two Bitcoin cohorts. In the graph, the MVRV Ratio is displayed as a percentage, with the 1 level corresponding to the 0% mark. It would appear that the metric was sitting at +7.1% for the 30-day investors at the time that the analytics firm made the post, indicating a profitable status for the recent buyers. Generally, holders become more likely to sell the larger that their profits get, so it’s possible that these short-term traders could be tempted to take their gains of the rally. BTC has seen a notable pullback in the past day and it may be due to profit realization from these investors. While the new buyers have been in gains, the 1-year investors haven’t been so fortunate. As is visible in the chart, the MVRV Ratio of this cohort has been around -22.1% recently, which is inside a region that Santiment defines as pertaining to an “opportunity” zone. Related Reading: Cardano Chop Nearing End? Here’s The Key Resistance To Watch Given this dominance of losses among this cohort, Bitcoin may not be set up badly from a long-term perspective. It only remains to be seen, however, how the asset will develop in the coming months. BTC Price Bitcoin has plummeted to the $71,100 level following its price drop over the past day. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has crossed the 760,000 Bitcoin threshold with its latest purchase, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC as of March 16, 2026. The market intelligence company continues to purchase BTC, despite broader market downtrends and ongoing volatility. Against this backdrop, AI analysis is now shedding light on how long it could take for Strategy to reach the 1 million BTC milestone, with different models projecting varying timelines. Grok AI Predicts When Strategy Hits 1 Million BTC Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 761,000 BTC after its record weekly purchase of 22,3337 BTC for approximately $1.57 billion. The company’s aggressive accumulation strategy, led by CEO Michael Saylor, is accelerated by its ambition to grow its Bitcoin treasury as substantially as possible, with some analysts projecting it could reach a million BTC cap by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Saylor’s Strategy Makes Every Time Bitcoin Goes Up By $1,000 However, according to projections from Grok, the AI platform created by xAI and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, Strategy could realistically reach the one million BTC milestone as early as September 2026. Grok’s forecast is based on the company’s recent purchase velocity, which has increased significantly over the past few years. In the three weeks leading up to mid-March, Strategy acquired between 3,015 and 22,337 BTC per week, averaging roughly 14,450 BTC. If the company can maintain this pace, Grok predicts that it could mathematically reach the one million BTC mark by early July this year. However, maintaining such aggressive weekly acquisitions would require continuous capital raises exceeding $1 billion per week, which Grok notes is unlikely. The AI platform noted that the company currently needs an additional 238,932 BTC from its holdings to reach its official target. A more sustainable pace, accounting for historical averages of roughly 2,500 BTC per week with the STRC preferred stock funding program, points to a more realistic timeline around September 2026. This projection takes into account market liquidity, sustainable fundraising, dilution concerns, market volatility, and other key factors. ChatGPT Forecasts Strategy’s 1 Million Bitcoin Timeline ChatGPT AI projects a slightly more conservative scenario based on historical buying trends, capital capacity, and market conditions. According to the AI platform, Strategy would need approximately 5,550 BTC each week to hit 1 million BTC by December 2026, about 50-100% above its recent weekly averages. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Still Bearish And Price Is Headed Below $50,000; Analyst While this goal is ambitious, the AI suggests it could realistically be achieved by 2027. Its analysis indicates that if Strategy ramps up purchases through equity issuance and STRC funding, the 1 million BTC target could be recalibrated to late December 2026. However, factors such as market liquidity, price volatility, and uneven weekly acquisitions make it more plausible that the goal could slip into early January 2027. The AI platform noted that delays beyond this window are unlikely, given the company’s historically strong commitment to BTC accumulation and its funding resources. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is starting to show intriguing signals on the monthly time frame, with long-term data hinting at a potential shift in market structure. While short-term price action often captures attention, it is the higher-time-frame trends that typically define the broader market direction, and those signals are now starting to align in a way that looks increasingly significant. What The Monthly Candles Reveal About Market Direction The latest price action of Bitcoin suggests that the monthly low may already be in, with time-based statistics pointing to a strong probability of higher prices ahead. Market analyst Lennaert Snyder highlighted on X that, based on the past 10 years of BTC data, approximately 97.7% of monthly highs and lows are formed within the first 15 days of the month, suggesting the recent low is likely to hold for the rest of the month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Showing A Major Deviation From 2022, Analyst Says This Is A Different Foundation Snyder noted that around 80.7% of months go on to print a new P2 (Point 2) after the 17th day, based on the timing. These time-based statistics suggest that there is a higher chance that the BTC price will experience upward momentum this month. How Market Structure Holds While Timing Models Shift Bitcoin is showing a subtle shift in behavior as price has broken away from the established 14th pattern for the first time in the past 7 months, causing the market algorithms to shift over time. A crypto trader known as Killa on X claimed that it was possible to capitalize on all 5 occurrences of this setup during that period. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Early Trend Reversal Signs After Major Support Hold However, the current deviation represents only a single pivot from a time-based price structure, which on its own is not enough to invalidate the larger thesis. This simply alters how the price reacts around that specific pivot rather than changing the overall trend structure of the market. Killa emphasized that in this case, pivot helps identify periods where directional volatility is likely to increase, and this consistent pattern over the past 7 months has produced 5 high-quality opportunities. It is important to distinguish between time-based pivots and price structure. While pivots can fail or lose reliability over time, the underlying structural price behavior will ultimately remain a driver of the market direction. Looking ahead, attention is shifting to macro catalysts as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is approaching, and much of the narrative has already been priced in. Institutional players are already positioning ahead of the event. Currently, the price has pushed higher into it, and the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not produce a local up, leaving open the possibility that the upcoming FOMC decision could act as the next inflection point. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Fed chair Jerome Powell said rising energy prices are feeding into the inflation outlook, but "nobody knows" yet how lasting the impact will be.
Bitcoin remained sharply lower for the session following the expected decision by the U.S. central bank.
Bitcoin (BTC) is hanging around $74k, still respecting the post‑shock range and struggling to clear recent highs. Bitcoin Range Holds Today’s QCP Market Colour reports that “the damage has been fairly contained”: the broader crypto market is soft compared with November–January, but continues to be under pressure, as other macro‑sensitive risk assets have fallen harder, although the pullback has been fairly limited in comparison. Dip‑buying interest appears near the lower end of the range, yet spot volumes are light and the tape feels macro‑led rather than crypto‑idiosyncratic. Related Reading: Crypto Payments Are Going Mainstream: Can Tourists Turn Into Daily Users In South Korea? In options, the tone remains firm but quietly defensive. Thirty‑day implied volatility is holding around the 50 handle, still sitting above realized, which keeps carry positive and makes short‑vol strategies attractive for sophisticated premium sellers. At the same time, the term structure is only mildly in contango (short‑dated options are cheaper than longer‑dated ones), signaling a market that is alert to risk but not trading in outright panic mode. Under the surface, skew tells a more cautious story. Thirty‑day risk reversals continue to price puts richer than calls, a sign that traders are willing to pay up for downside protection even with spot pinned near the top end of the range. Skew is not extreme: the fact that traders consistently favor puts over calls implies they mostly hold long bitcoin positions but are protecting themselves with hedges, instead of being outright, unhedged bulls. Further out the curve, a residual geopolitical premium remains embedded, reflecting ongoing concerns around oil, conflicts, and the broader stagflation narrative, QCP reports suggest. The Fed Takes Centre Stage Macro is firmly in the driver’s seat as markets head into one of the densest policy weeks of the year so far: The Fed takes the stage on Wednesday, followed in quick succession by the ECB, BoJ and BoE on Thursday, concentrating rates risk into a 48‑hour window. Higher oil near $100 is complicating the case for rate cuts with sticky inflation prints and higher energy costs just as growth and labor data soften, so markets have dialed back easing expectations. Oil trades at $95 on the daily chart. Source: OILUSD on Tradingview For crypto, that mix is a double‑edged sword. A less dovish rates path keeps real yields elevated and limits the upside impulse from the “liquidity trade” that powered earlier legs of the rally. At the same time, oil hovering near triple digits and lingering geopolitical tension are feeding a stagflationary tone across assets, blurring Bitcoin’s role between high‑beta risk and potential macro hedge. Related Reading: Crypto Rails Go Mainstream — Inside Mastercard’s Bold $1.8 Billion BVNK Acquisition What This Means For Traders The setup still looks like a range rather than a clean trend. Options show no panic, but richer puts underline ongoing demand for downside protection. Until policy guidance or geopolitics provide a clearer signal, BTC is likely to remain trapped in its range, trading as a macro‑sensitive asset rather than a purely crypto‑native story. In simpler words, BTC is no longer behaving as pure high‑beta tech, but it is not yet seeing consistent, gold‑style safe‑haven inflows either. That backdrop favors structured premium selling and disciplined range‑trading over chasing breakouts. At the moment of writing, BTC's price sits in the highs $72k. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, OILUSD and BTCUSD charts from Tradingview
American Bitcoin (ABTC) has climbed to become the 16th-largest bitcoin holder, with 6,899 BTC, as firms compete to build bitcoin treasuries.
A falling hash rate and the resultant pressure on miners could signal another potential capitulation phase, which could push prices down furthe
The price of oil moved higher after reported attacks against Iran's South Pars gas field.
Two Prime data shows post-meeting weakness dominates, even as markets price a Fed hold and limited rate cuts ahead.
BTC consolidated with subdued volatility, while derivatives positioning and macro uncertainty signaled cautious market sentiment.
Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate has slipped below gold’s for the second time in its history, according to Fidelity Digital Assets, marking an unusual moment for an asset long defined by its outsized long-term returns. For markets, the signal is not just about relative performance against gold, but about what a slower growth profile may say about Bitcoin’s current market cycle. In a new Chart Chatter segment posted on X, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has been trending lower over time as the asset’s price has risen. That dynamic, he argued, has now produced a rare crossover. “What we are seeing now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for just the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We have now seen three straight months to start the year of CAGR below Gold’s.” What This Means For Bitcoin That is the key statistic in Fidelity’s framing. Bitcoin has spent most of its history comfortably ahead of gold on a five-year compounded basis, which made the January break notable on its own. The fact that it has now persisted for three consecutive months gives the move more weight, especially coming at a time Fidelity explicitly describes as a bear market. Related Reading: This Week Could Be The Most Volatile For Bitcoin In 2026, Top Expert Warns Wainwright tied the last comparable episode to the end of the previous cycle. “Back in 2022, we saw one such month of this occurring in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was bottoming out in the bear market around $15,000,” he said. “We are now once again in a bear market and below that CAGR for a longer stretch this time of three months.” In Fidelity’s telling, the drop below gold is rare, but it has also happened before during a moment of acute market weakness. The difference this time is duration. One month in late 2022 could be dismissed as a brief distortion near a cycle low. Three straight months in early 2026 suggests a more sustained compression in Bitcoin’s long-term return profile. At the same time, Fidelity did not frame the crossover as evidence that Bitcoin has lost its defining edge altogether. Wainwright was careful to stress the historical balance. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above Gold’s CAGR for the majority of its history,” he said. “So this is truly a unique instance and occurrence in Bitcoin, where it is now below the CAGR of Gold.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Picks Up Again, But $79,962 Remains The Key Resistance: On-Chain Data Gold’s side of the comparison is important too. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, then climbed to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026. That translates into a gain of about 67.1% over the past year and roughly 132.4% over two years — a surge that helps explain why Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has now slipped below gold’s. For now, the takeaway is straightforward: Bitcoin still has the stronger long-run record against gold across most of its history, but early 2026 has produced a rare exception. Whether that proves to be another late-bear-market anomaly or an early sign of a more mature, slower-growth Bitcoin is the question Fidelity has now put squarely in front of the market. At press time, BTC traded at $74,015. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin remains stuck near key resistance around $75,000, leaving the broader market in limbo.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have responded to the latest price rally by participating in profit realization. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Shown A Realized Profit Spike In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Realized Profit for the Bitcoin short-term holders. The Realized Profit here refers to an indicator that measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of profit being harvested by BTC investors through their transactions. The metric works by going through the transfer history of each coin being moved on the network to see what price it was transacted at prior to this. If the previous selling price was less than the latest spot price for any token, then that particular coin’s current transaction is leading to the realization of some net gain. Related Reading: Cardano Chop Nearing End? Here’s The Key Resistance To Watch The exact degree of profit involved in the move is naturally equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Profit adds up this difference for all profitable moves on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Profit of only a segment of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This group includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The STHs are generally considered to represent the fickle-minded side of the market, with its members tending to show some reaction whenever market volatility emerges. During the last few days, Bitcoin has seen a recovery surge beyond the $74,000 level and it would appear that the STHs have reacted to it as well. As displayed in the above graph, the 12-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin STH Realized Profit spiked to a value of $18.4 million per hour alongside the price rally. Since the profit-taking spree has arrived, the cryptocurrency’s surge has stalled. “Consistent with the pattern observed over February, where short-term holders continue to exhaust each rally at the +$70k level, absorbing momentum before any breakout can develop,” explained Glassnode. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can overcome the profit realization pressure from the STHs this time around or if the rally’s fate will be similar to other recent attempts at recovery. Related Reading: Dogecoin Surges 6% As Whales Scoop Up 470 Million DOGE In some other news, the crypto Fear & Greed Index has just returned to the fear territory, breaking a long streak of extreme fear in the market. The uplift in sentiment suggests that the price rally has renewed some degree of optimism among traders, although with the index still at a value of 28, the market mood remains quite bearish. BTC Price Bitcoin broke above $75,000 during the price surge, but it has since returned to $74,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering above the recently breached $74,000 resistance, positioning to reclaim price levels not seen since the fourth quarter of last year. However, this week’s activity is set to be turbulent, with market expert Virtual Bacon predicting it could be the “most volatile week in Bitcoin all year.” Bear Market Prevails In a report shared on social media platform X, Virtual Bacon noted that, although the current Bitcoin price uptrend is optimistic, significant challenges remain. The critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $93,000, while the 50-week SMA is around $98,000. The last lower high resistance is pegged at $94,000, creating a confluence of resistance in the $93,000 to $98,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Simply said, there is a 15% downside risk to support levels in the low $60,000 zone, against a 30% upside potential to resistance. Virtual Bacon emphasized that the chances of a rejection back into the previous range outweigh the possibility of a full breakout into a bull market. “This isn’t me being bearish,” he stated, emphasizing that the analysis is grounded in numerical realities. “We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above the $94,000 to $98,000 resistance.” Market Volatility Expected This Week Virtual Bacon’s concern regarding the expected volatility this week is attributed to several volatility catalysts. The first is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place from March 18-19. There is a 99.1% likelihood of no interest rate cuts. However, the expert believes that any comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—particularly concerning hawkish stances influenced by oil-driven inflation—could trigger a hard market sell-off. Furthermore, the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day enhances the potential for dramatic market movements. Current options data indicates heavy open interest clustered around the $74,000 to $75,000 range, suggesting that prices may stay constrained near this level until Friday’s expiry. Virtual Bacon noted that, if the Bitcoin price moves above $75,000, it could surge toward $80,000. However, if it drops below $70,000, it may amplify the downward trend. The ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding oil prices could further complicate market conditions. The expert contended that if oil prices approach $120, combined with FOMC and quadruple witching events, the market could experience significant instability. Two Scenarios For Bitcoin In the expert’s view, there are two main scenarios to consider by the end of the week. The first, a potential breakout, would see Bitcoin hold above the $75,000 mark through Friday’s expected volatility. He said that this could facilitate a move toward $80,000 and set the stage for renewed bullish sentiment as the market looks for recovery toward the critical resistance levels of $94,000 to $98,000 in the second quarter of the year. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 The second scenario involves a rejection at the $75,000 resistance level, leading to a post-expiry drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range. Virtual Bacon concludes that if such a decline occurs, the S&P 500 could break below its 200-day SMA, and oil prices could escalate, pushing Bitcoin back into prolonged bear market conditions, with scenarios suggesting prices could fall as low as $58,000 or even $43,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Despite a recent resurgence in prices, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are not expected to achieve new all-time highs this year, according to analysts at Citigroup. The company significantly revised its forecasts for both cryptocurrencies on Tuesday, reflecting concerns about the slow pace of legislative progress in the United States, which limits the potential for regulatory catalysts that could drive increased demand from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Targets Revised Downward In their latest update, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum’s forecast was reduced from $4,304 to $3,175. This suggests that, based on current trade prices, Bitcoin is predicted to increase by nearly 50% in the remaining months of the year from $74,360. Ethereum, on the other hand, would see a nearly 62% increase in price from its present level of $2,314 per token over the course of the year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Citi strategist Alex Saunders emphasized that while regulatory catalysts are essential for fostering greater adoption and inflows into the market, the opportunity for significant US legislative action this year is diminishing. The report further highlights that, under a recessionary economic climate, Bitcoin could see its price dip to as low as $58,000, while Ethereum might fall to around $1,198. Conversely, in a bullish scenario driven by heightened demand from end investors, Bitcoin’s price could reach $165,000, with Ethereum potentially climbing to $4,488. Tight Timeline For Crypto Legislation Progress The upcoming mid-term elections in November further complicate the legislative landscape for crypto-focused regulation. Should Democrats gain additional seats in Congress, the chances of passing the crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) could diminish. For the bill to advance, support from 7 Senate Democrats is required. Citigroup analysts suggest that Bitcoin is likely to trade within a range while awaiting developments in the legislative arena, with $70,000 acting as a significant price point as the US election approaches. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 Earlier on Tuesday, Bitcoinist reported that Alex Thorn from the research team at Galaxy Digital pointed out that time is of the essence. He cautioned that if progress is not made this month, the likelihood of passing the CLARITY Act this year will become “extremely low.” While negotiations in Washington D.C focus on resolving the stablecoin rewards issue, Thorn highlighted that additional challenges could emerge. These challenges may include discussions regarding decentralized finance (DeFi), investor protections, and broader ethical considerations in the digital asset sector. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A single on-chain indicator has quietly called every major Bitcoin cycle bottom for the past decade, and it is now approaching that important level once again. The setup comes from a monthly Bitcoin chart paired with the NUPL indicator, which tracks whether the average holder is sitting on unrealized profit or loss. In each of the last three major bear market lows, the indicator fell into the same area and touched a rising trendline. Nailing The Bitcoin Bottom Bitcoin’s latest break above $70,000 and into the mid-$70,000s has seen a bullish mood slowly returning. The fear and greed index has improved, but one question is still unresolved. Has the market already found its bottom, or is another washout still ahead? Interestingly, a long-term reading of the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, shows that the answer may lie in a pattern that has repeated across multiple market cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Far From Over? Analyst Shares How Painful Bear Markets Can Get NUPL is a clean sentiment gauge in Bitcoin analysis because it strips price action down to a question of whether holders, on average, are in profit or in pain. When the reading is high, the market is sitting on large unrealized gains. When it falls hard, those profits disappear, and losses dominate. The monthly candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin’s major cycle lows have consistently formed when NUPL resets into deep territory and tags a long-term ascending support line. That happened at the 2015 cycle bottom, repeated again at the 2018 bear market low, and showed up once more around the 2022 bottom. Each of those touches came at points when sentiment had already been crushed, and the Bitcoin price had shed most of its previous gains. The current NUPL reading of 22.9 represents a cryptocurrency that is still in modest aggregate profit, although it has shed a huge portion of the gains investors accumulated during the rally to the October 2025 peak above $126,000. Is The Bottom Already In? According to a crypto analyst that goes by the name CrypFlow on the social media platform X, the NUPL indicator is now approaching that level of Bitcoin bottoms again. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may still need another deeper reset in sentiment before the market reaches a true long-term washout. Price may have already corrected a lot, but the indicator shows the emotional capitulation seen at prior bottoms may not be complete yet. The NUPL might continue to push downwards and reach the trendline before a bottom is confirmed. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bulls Have Won And This Is The Next Target Although no single indicator can call every bottom with perfect precision, the NUPL leaves room for the possibility that one final price crash could still come before the next full cycle expansion begins. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $74,220, up by 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com