Bitcoin is trading in a world where headlines still scream “bull” or “bear” while the underlying structure quietly refuses to play along. After spiking to an all-time high in the $124,000–$126,000 zone in early October and then shedding roughly a third of its value into November, BTC now sits in the low-$90,000s, still dominant but clearly winded. Into that confusion steps pseudonymous renowned crypto industry veteran plur daddy (@plur_daddy) who suggests the market may be in neither regime at all. “Because of the 4 year cycle, all crypto market participants are primed to view the market as either in a bull or bear phase,” he wrote on X. “What if, as a part of the market maturing, we are simply in an extended consolidation window where overhead supply is being absorbed?” It is a simple framing shift with fairly big implications. He points to gold, which “chopped between $1,650–2,050 from April 2020 to March 2024,” and argues it is “logical to assume that as BTC evolves, it will exhibit more gold-like behaviors.” In other words: not dead, not euphoric, just… stuck in a fat, liquidity-soaked range where supply changes hands from weak to strong for longer than traders raised on clean halving cycles are emotionally prepared to tolerate. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50% The range dynamics are already visible at the top end. According to plur, “sellers emerged aggressively whenever price entered the $120k range.” He notes there are “strong arguments” those sellers were driven by the four-year cycle meme, but “equally good arguments” they were reacting to more prosaic considerations: age, price, liquidity, thesis change, and “emerging tail risks.” If BTC revisits that zone, he thinks it is “rational for people to front run that, which helps reinforce the range.” Classic reflexivity: people remembering the last top create the next one. On the downside, he is not in the doom camp. “This also dovetails with my intuitive feeling that the lows may be in, or at the least not significantly lower than what we have seen, but upside also being capped,” he wrote, adding that liquidity conditions are “poised to moderately improve,” creating room for a bounce – just not necessarily a new regime. Or as he put it with some restraint, he’d “be cautious about betting on regime change.” Bitcoin Market Puzzled: QE Or Not QE? That “moderate improvement” is not theoretical. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, taking the Fed funds target to 3.50–3.75%, alongside a surprise announcement: roughly $40 billion a month in “reserve management purchases” (RMPs) of short-dated Treasuries, starting December 12 and guided to remain elevated for several months. The official line is that this is a technical step to keep reserves “ample” and repo markets functioning, not a new round of QE. Macro voices on X are, unsurprisingly, not unified on that distinction. Plur Daddy added via X: “This is different from QE because the main way that QE works is through pulling duration out of the market, forcing market participants to move up the risk curve. However, they snuck in there that they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out. This is more bullish than expected, and helps bridge market liquidity into the new year.” Miad Kasravi (@ZFXtrading) insists, “FED is NOT doing QE. Just expanding balance sheet via Money-market displacement,” arguing that when the Fed buys bills, the prior holder gets cash that “has to go somewhere” and “some of it seeps into credit, equities, crypto.” Related Reading: Wall Street Giant Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Price To Hit $1 Million By 2033 LondonCryptoClub takes the gloves off. In his view, the Fed is “basically going to print money to keep funding this deficit for as long and as large as needed,” adding that “the debasement trade is on autopilot mode.” He backs Lyn Alden’s earlier remark that “it’s money printing. Whether it’s QE or not is more semantics. Fed won’t call it QE since it’s not duration and it’s not for economic stimulus.” Lyn Alden nails it Markets are going to tie themselves up arguing over the semantics and overcomplicating it Yet they’re printing money and monetising the deficit It’s all the same thing. Admittedly, this is QE-lite…for now at least Believe it or not, market participants… https://t.co/cf7QLogWom — LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) December 10, 2025 Peter Schiff, predictably but not entirely irrationally, commented via X: “QE by any other name is still inflation. The Fed just announced it will be buying T-bills “on an ongoing basis.” Given that long-term rates will rise on this inflationary policy shift, it won’t be long before the Fed expands and extends QE5 to longer-dated maturities. Got gold?” So The Takeaway Is? As Plur notes, these operations expand bank reserves and ease repo stress; the Fed will primarily buy T-bills, but “they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out.” That edges the program closer to “QE-lite” than pure plumbing. It is supportive for risk assets and it arrives precisely during the year-end liquidity doldrums, with further balance-sheet expansion mechanisms waiting in the wings. For Bitcoin, the uncomfortable answer right now is that both things can be true: the “debasement trade” is structurally alive, while price action behaves like a large, semi-institutional asset digesting a brutal rally and a fresh macro shock. Another six to eighteen months of rangebound churn, as plur suggests, “wouldn’t be strange at all.” Whether you label that bull, bear, or just purgatory is mostly a narrative choice. Markets, frankly, will trade it the same either way. At press time, BTC traded at $90,060. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The planned deal will bring Corbiere’s equity and event-driven strategies under Blockstream’s asset management arm.
New fund enables Save the Children to hold bitcoin, pilot digital wallets, and speed up emergency aid delivery.
The dollar, along with precious metals and bond yields, is reacting as expected to easier financial conditions, but crypto remains in a bearish trend.
A recent post by crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards on X suggests that the current Bitcoin structure is giving bears “the perfect opportunity” to short the market down to $40,000. His message was paired with a chart showing Bitcoin falling below an important resistance ever since it broke below $100,000, creating what appears to be a clean continuation setup for traders expecting deeper losses. However, although the chart highlights a similar bearish structure in 2022, the analysis behind his post points to a more layered interpretation of what may come next for Bitcoin. The Setup Bears Believe Is Finally Here In the chart he shared, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoin’s latest breakdown resembles the 2022 pattern, when the price action rejected a major resistance level and fell sharply into what later became a large accumulation zone. The current structure shows a similar rejection just above the $100,000 zone, followed by a drop below the weekly EMA50. This move has brought Bitcoin into a region that is similar to the range where accumulation formed in the earlier cycle. An overlay of the new price action on top of the previous one shows the path downward seems almost predetermined, creating the impression that the Bitcoin price is setting up a natural decline to as low as $40,000 in the coming weeks and months. Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,240. A crash to $40,000 would mean wiping out roughly 55% of its value from here, effectively erasing the entire progress it has built over the past two years. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X Why The Perfect Short Is Not The Analyst’s Real Message After the post gained traction, Stockmoney Lizards stepped in to clarify that his message had been taken too literally. His invitation for traders to short down to $40,000 was intentionally exaggerated, and the market does not behave this way. He clarified that he does not foresee a collapse into a deep bear market. Instead, he believes Bitcoin may consolidate, possibly sweep local lows, but not have a prolonged breakdown. Furthermore, he noted that the worst-case scenario would be a touch of the weekly EMA200, and this is not a place where bull markets end. The real midterm prediction is a higher move for the Bitcoin price. Before posting the supposedly bearish prediction, Stockmoney Lizards had shared another analysis describing Bitcoin as being close to the endboss at the weekly EMA50 indicator. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X That earlier chart offered a clearer view of his actual stance. In it, he predicted that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical pivot and that he expected upward movement into the end of December and Q1 2025. Therefore, the weekly EMA50 is the barrier that Bitcoin needs to reclaim in order to launch its next phase of bullish momentum. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin, ether and most majors fell last month as spot, derivatives and stablecoin volumes dropped and U.S. crypto ETPs saw heavy outflows.
Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day. These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion. Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000. Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The company sells BTC to secure cash for upcoming loan note obligations ahead of its planned uplisting.
An experiment in Prague might end up mattering more for Bitcoin than the usual ETF inflow chart. Speaking on the “Crypto In America” show on 10 December, Coinbase Head of Institutional John D’Agostino highlighted that the Czech National Bank has begun testing Bitcoin in its national treasury and for payments, and argued that this sort of move by a Eurozone central bank is likely to spread. Czech Bitcoin Pilot Could Spread Across Eurozone “The Czech national bank chose very well in their service providers,” he said, adding that the central bank is “putting Bitcoin on their national treasury and they are experimenting with and learning in real time using Bitcoin for payments.” The pilot is small — “a million dollars of Bitcoin” — but for D’Agostino the signal is not in the size, it is in who is doing it and why. He drew a deliberate contrast with earlier sovereign experiments: “No disrespect to El Salvador… this wasn’t a ‘I want to shake up my economy because I’m heading in the wrong direction’… This is, we are a stable Euro zone country… we don’t have to do this.” Related Reading: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50% Instead, the Czech move followed “all the bells and whistles” of a traditional process: RFPs, vendor selection, formal adoption into policy. That, he suggested, is exactly what makes it dangerous — for the status quo. “That type of thing is contagious and I can see more Euro zone [countries] following suit very very shortly,” he said. The comment did not come in isolation. Throughout the interview, D’Agostino hammered a consistent thesis: institutional adoption has always been less about perfect regulatory clarity and more about liquidity, credible market structure and having the “right” types of participants in the pool. “I’ve always been a bit of a skeptic on the argument that the reason institutions haven’t invested… is regulatory clarity,” he said. Clarity is “top three,” but in his ranking it comes after liquidity and sits alongside alpha potential. If two of the three are present, “people will find a way.” Bitcoin’s spot ETFs, in his view, have already created something the asset previously lacked: a cohort of structurally compelled participants. “The ETFs, in my view, are kind of the surrogate commercial users of Bitcoin,” he argued. They “have to rebalance… it’s codified into their business model,” acting as a stabilizing force similar to industrial users in commodities markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Lacks Fresh Momentum As Realized Cap Growth Still Declining A Eurozone central bank experimenting with Bitcoin on its balance sheet pushes that logic one step further up the food chain. D’Agostino did not spell out a grand theory of “Bitcoin as reserve asset” — he was careful, almost lawyerly, about what he could say — but the implication is not terribly subtle: when a central bank with access to normal EU funding “doesn’t have to do this” and still chooses to, it normalizes Bitcoin inside the most conservative layer of the monetary system. That sits alongside a broader reputational repair job he thinks the industry still has to finish. Crypto, he argued, has had no more structural failures than other markets — he pointed to the London Metal Exchange’s cancellation of billions in nickel trades as an under-discussed parallel to FTX — but “we tend to push the jokers to positions of prominence,” whereas TradFi “does a good job of hiding their jokers.” Between cleaner narratives, ETF-driven “surrogate” demand and now a Eurozone central bank quietly wiring a million dollars into Bitcoin, D’Agostino’s message was that the institutional story is less about a sudden wave and more about erosion. “There’s no wave,” he said earlier in the conversation. “It’s this gradual erosion as opposed to this crashing wave.” If he is right about the Czech experiment being contagious, that erosion may soon be happening from the inside of the Euro system as well, not just from asset managers in New York. At press time, BTC traded at $90,234. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Oracle shares tanked after the firm revealed an earnings miss.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum. Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Solana Enters Bear Territory: Realized Loss Now Outweighs Profit This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation with the current spot price, considering the latest value of the cryptocurrency to be the one value for all coins. In short, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the asset’s supply. On the other hand, the market cap is the value that the investors are carrying in the present. The Realized Cap itself isn’t the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, measuring the 365-day changes occurring in the Realized Cap. Changes in the indicator naturally reflect the amount of capital exiting or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the asset’s netflow. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has witnessed both its 7-day and 59-day MAs reverse down recently, with the former line crossing under the latter. The trend indicates that growth in the Realized Cap has been slowing down during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin is lacking momentum from new cost basis inflows,” noted the analyst. With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator is now flagging the current market to be in a “bear phase.” The last time this signal maintained for an extended duration was alongside BTC’s decline over the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long momentum from new capital inflows will stay weak for Bitcoin this time around. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders are still under a notable amount of stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has pointed out in an X post. Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who got into the market during the past 155 days. Despite the rebound BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still in a loss of 10%. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,400, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Market uncertainty persists due to internal Fed divisions and unclear future rate paths until 2026.
CryptoQuant data shows seller exhaustion as whales pull back from exchanges, while traders prepare for a closely watched BOJ meeting that could influence global liquidity.
"Powell is threading the needle between their two mandates," said one analyst.
In a move that could signal a bullish shift for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, bringing the new rate range to 3.5% to 3.75%. Bitcoin Poised To Surge Toward $100,000? Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser and a leading candidate to become the next Fed chair, commented to the Wall Street Journal CEO Council that there is “plenty of room” for additional interest rate cuts. He stated, “If the data suggests that we could do it, then — like right now, I think there’s plenty of room to do it.” Hassett, who is President Donald Trump’s preferred choice for the Fed chair position after Jerome Powell’s tenure concludes, has been critical of Powell for being “too late” in lowering rates. Related Reading: Crypto Market Structure Talks: Senator Lummis Addresses Latest Legislation Plans While the last rate cut in October had minimal impact on the Bitcoin price, analyst Michael van de Poppe believes that the current rate cut could significantly benefit the cryptocurrency. He characterized it as a “great move” for Bitcoin and noted that a breakout above $92,000 might be indicative of future bullish momentum. Van de Poppe expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the support level between $91,500 and $92,000, suggesting that if it does, there could be a pathway for Bitcoin to approach the $100,000 mark. Can BTC Avoid Historical 10% Decline? Market expert Ash Crypto pointed out that historically, each of the last four times the Fed slashed rates by 25 bps, Bitcoin experienced a 5% to 10% decline shortly thereafter. Despite this pattern, Ash noted that the current market setup differs from previous scenarios, suggesting that different dynamics could be at play. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Climbs Toward $3,300 For The First Time Since November: What’s Driving The Surge? Several positive factors underpinning this optimism include the conclusion of quantitative tightening (QT) after a three-year period. Should Powell hint at the possibility of quantitative easing (QE) in his forthcoming remarks, it could spur a further bullish trend in the market. Additionally, with this being the third rate cut, Ash asserted that there is potential for increased liquidity to flow back into the markets, which historically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Bull Theory has explained why the Bitcoin price has been crashing recently. The analyst pointed out that Wall Street traders were responsible for the price declines, indicating that these trading desks were manipulating the market for their own benefit. Analyst Explains Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing In an X post, Bull Theory blamed Jane Street for the Bitcoin price’s constant crash at 10 a.m. ET when the U.S. market opens. The analyst pointed out that BTC erased 16 hours of gains in just 20 minutes after the U.S. market opened. This has notably been happening since early November, when the flagship crypto fell below $100,000. Meanwhile, a similar price action also played out in the second and third quarters of this year. Related Reading: Confirming The Bitcoin Price Direction: Analyst Reveals What You Should Look Out For Bull Theory noted that another analyst, Zerohedge, has claimed that Jane Street is most likely the entity responsible for this Bitcoin price crash. The analyst stated that the chart shows a pattern that is too consistent to ignore, with a clean wipeout within an hour of the market opening, followed by a slow recovery. He added that this is classic high-frequency execution and that it fits Jane Street’s profile. Bull Theory stated that Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading firms in the world and that they have the speed and liquidity to move markets for a few minutes. The analyst claimed that their behavior is simple: dump BTC at the market open, push the Bitcoin price into liquidity pockets, and then re-enter at a lower price. By doing this, the analyst claimed that Jane Street has accumulated billions in BTC. The trading firm is said to hold $2.5 billion worth of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, which is its 5th-largest position. Bull Theory added that this means most of the dump in the Bitcoin price isn’t due to macro weakness but manipulation by this entity. He expects that BTC will continue its upward momentum once these big players are done buying. Bitcoin At Risk Of A Decline Post-FOMC Crypto analyst Ali Martinez indicated that the Bitcoin price was at risk of a significant decline following today’s FOMC meeting. He pointed out that BTC has consistently reacted negatively to FOMC meetings, with six out of seven meetings this year leading to corrections for the flagship crypto. Related Reading: Bitcoin RSI Shows Shocking Similarities To 2012-2015, But What Happened Last Time? The Bitcoin price had rallied to as high as $94,500 yesterday in anticipation of a third rate cut this year from the Fed. According to CME FedWatch, there is currently a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points (bps). A CryptoQuant report noted how these rate cuts have turned out to be a ‘sell the news’ event on the two occasions the Fed lowered rates this year, with the probability of this price action playing out again. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $92,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support. How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies. Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious. CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price. On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Settles In Consolidation Zone – Levels To Watch Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The anticipated move comes as policymakers are still operating without several key economic data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the U.S. government shutdown.
Michale Saylor and team urged MSCI to maintain neutral index standards after a plan to exclude firms with significant digital asset holdings.
The Elon Musk–run company is moving ahead with plans for an initial public offering that would seek to raise “significantly more than $30 billion.” Even relatively small balance-sheet allocations matter at that scale.
When Strategy disclosed its acquisition of more than 10,000 Bitcoin worth $1 billion, market watchers anticipated an immediate rally. Instead, Bitcoin’s price barely moved. The muted response was not a reflection of weak demand but the result of how the purchase was executed. In response to the confusion surrounding the stagnant price action, Quinten Francois explained the mechanics behind the transaction, clarifying why such a large buy left no visible impact on the chart. The Invisible Plumbing Behind Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation On 9 December 2025, Andrew Tate questioned why a massive 10,000 BTC buy failed to nudge the market. The answer, as analyst Francois explained, lies in the operational backbone of over-the-counter (OTC) desks—an ecosystem designed to absorb billion-dollar flows while keeping price action stable. These desks operate entirely outside exchanges. When a firm wants thousands of BTC, nothing is executed against the real-time order book. Instead, OTC operators start sourcing supply quietly from large holders looking to offload position size. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Set To Surge As Sellers Show Signs Of Exhaustion This pipeline includes deep private liquidity that retail traders never see: miners selling block rewards, VCs rotating out of token allocations, market makers rebalancing inventory, and even corporate treasuries restructuring reserves. None of these trades appear on exchange feeds. According to Francois, they do not trigger volatility, sweep liquidity pools, or create the upward pressure that retail investors typically expect from large buys. More critically, Francois notes that these transactions do not occur in a single block. A 5,000–10,000 BTC order is never filled all at once. Instead, OTC desks spread procurement over days or even weeks, accumulating inventory piece by piece. Only when enough matched supply is gathered do they finalize the transaction, resulting in a smooth settlement with no visible footprint on price charts. Why No Price Rally Emerges From Shadow-Side Demand Shadow-side demand refers to large-scale institutional buying that occurs entirely outside public exchanges. These hidden transactions do not trigger price rallies because OTC infrastructure is designed to prevent slippage, volatility, and market distortion. Institutions acquiring strategic size deliberately avoid pushing prices higher, while liquidity providers are incentivized to maintain stability. By keeping trades off public exchanges, both sides protect execution quality and preserve overall market integrity. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights The Condition That Will Trigger A 2,300% XRP Rally To $50 A rally only emerges when open-market demand exceeds visible liquidity. In this case, the demand never hit the open market. OTC desks tap private channels first and only touch exchanges if supply dries up—and that is considered a last resort. If enough sellers are found privately, no exchange-side buying occurs at all. This is why public charts often show sell pressure but rarely show institutional demand. The buys happen in the shadows, the sells appear on-chain, and the price remains anchored. Strategy’s $1 billion allocation did not fail to move the market; it was intentionally engineered not to. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The shares of both bitcoin-related firms are posting modest early gains Wednesday, but remain sharply lower over the past several days.
Bitcoin's volatility indices are declining, just like the S&P 500's.
An SEC filing shows the Kraken facility will be used to retire an outstanding Antalpha loan and requires significant bitcoin collateral.
Bitcoin rebound and equity momentum push Metaplanet valuation multiple to 1.17 to highest level since October.
The new preferred stock offering, SATA, strengthens Strive’s capital options as it expands its bitcoin focused strategy.
Over the last few days, the Bitcoin price has fluctuated, but the most prominent moves have been upwards, going from below $90,000 to over $94,000. As expected, this rapid climb already has investors calling for a return of the bull run, but not everyone is convinced. For some, the current Bitcoin price momentum is most likely a bull trap, and crypto analyst Xanrox highlights this in a recent analysis, outlining the best level to start selling the digital asset. Why The Bitcoin Price Risks A Crash To $74,000 Xanrox’s analysis focuses on the bearish formations that have appeared on the Bitcoin price crash following the recent upward move. While many in the crypto community celebrate the rise above $90,000 again, the crypto analyst sounds an alarm that this is the time to go bearish on the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Why The Litecoin Price Could Stage A 33% Rally To $110 According to the analysis shared on the TradingView website, there has been a clear bear flag formation for the cryptocurrency. This bearish formation is visible on both the 12-hour chart and the 1-Day chart. Regardless, both of these charts point to one possible outcome, and that is an almost perfect textbook bear flag formation. In addition to the bear flag formation, Xanrox also highlights that there is a WXY corrective pattern inside the bear flag. Both of these point to a possible continuation to the initial downtrend that began after the Bitcoin price hit $126,000 back in October. As for how far the current rally could go, the crypto analyst sees it reaching as high as $96,000 before momentum runs out. This presents the “perfect” time to sell or enter a short as the price continues its decline. The target for this is an over 25% crash that will send the price going toward $74,000. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Volume Explosion: Leading Meme Coin Barrels Ahead In This Metric The $74,000 target makes an appearance as it is a swing low from April 2024, meaning that crypto traders who are long on the digital asset would have their stop losses below it. Thus, this makes it an attractive point for market makers to push the price towards in order to clear significant liquidity. The timeframe for this to play out is placed over the next few weeks, riding out the end of 2025 and moving into January 2026. However, the swing low support at $74,000, if it holds up, could end up serving as the next bounce-off point for the Bitcoin price. Featured image from Pngtree 42, chart from TradingView.com
Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its famously bullish Bitcoin roadmap, cutting its 2026 price target in half and acknowledging that its previous near-term projections were too aggressive, even as it keeps an ultra-optimistic long-term view intact. Standard Chartered Downgrades Bitcoin Price Predictions In a note shared on X by VanEck head of research Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered argues that Bitcoin’s traditional halving cycle has been overtaken by ETF-driven flows. The bank writes: “With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) – i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter – is no longer valid, in our view.” The report adds that it will “take a break of the current all-time high ($ 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026.” Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal Alongside that shift in framework, the bank re-profiled its multi-year Bitcoin targets. According to the figures shared by Sigel, Standard Chartered has lowered its 2025 forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, its 2026 target from $300,000 to $150,000, its 2027 projection from $400,000 to $225,000, its 2028 estimate from $500,000 to $300,000, and its 2029 prediction from $500,000 to $400,000 while keeping a $500,000 target for 2030. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, characterises the recent drawdown as painful but not structural. He describes the current phase as “a cold breeze,” explicitly rejecting the notion of a new crypto winter and noting that the magnitude of the pullback remains consistent with corrections seen in past bull cycles. At the same time, he points out that weaker valuations for listed Bitcoin treasury companies have curtailed their ability to act as major marginal buyers, leaving spot ETFs as the primary driver of near-term gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $50 Million By 2041, Says EMJ Capital CEO Wall Street Giant Bernstein Agrees The downgrade also lands in the context of a broader rethink on Wall Street. One day earlier, on December 8, Sigel shared a separate note from Bernstein that reached a similar conclusion about Bitcoin’s market structure. Bernstein wrote that “the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.” Despite an approximately 30% correction, the firm notes that “we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs.” On that basis, Bernstein now moves its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, sees the cycle “potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000,” and keeps its long-term 2033 target at roughly $1,000,000 per BTC. Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein are converging on the same structural message: the halving alone no longer explains Bitcoin’s trajectory. ETF flows, institutional positioning and balance-sheet dynamics are now the core variables, even if their precise price targets and timelines diverge. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,686. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is holding above $90,000 as the market heads into a highly anticipated FOMC meeting, a moment that could define the next direction for risk assets. But while price action keeps traders on edge, on-chain indicators are painting a surprisingly different picture beneath the surface. According to a new CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued to fall sharply throughout 2025, even as price corrected toward the $90K range. Related Reading: Smart Whales Align: Top Performers Go All-In On Ethereum Long Positions With Over $425M in Exposure The data shows that the total amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges has dropped to 2.76 million BTC, reaching one of the lowest levels ever recorded. What makes this trend even more striking is its timing: during the steep November–December sell-off, exchange balances did not rise—they fell faster. The report highlights this behavior in the red-marked zone of the chart, showing accelerating outflows while the price was dropping. This pattern signals something unusual: investors are not sending coins to exchanges to sell into weakness. Instead, they continue withdrawing BTC into long-term custody, suggesting confidence rather than capitulation. As volatility builds ahead of the FOMC decision, the contrast between short-term price fear and long-term accumulation is becoming one of the most important dynamics in the current Bitcoin market. Shrinking Exchange Reserves Signal Structural Strength The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s rapidly shrinking exchange reserves carry important structural implications for the market. When fewer coins sit on centralized exchanges, it means less Bitcoin is available for immediate sale, effectively tightening the liquid supply. According to the data, this decline is not being driven by short-term speculators but by long-term holders and institutional entities steadily moving BTC into self-custody or cold storage. What makes this trend remarkable is its timing. Historically, sharp price declines trigger a wave of inflows to exchanges as investors prepare to sell or panic-exit their positions. This cycle, however, tells a very different story. Even as Bitcoin corrected into the $90K region, exchange balances kept falling, suggesting that buyers with a long-term outlook are actively accumulating rather than retreating. This divergence between price action and on-chain behavior signals underlying strength. While short-term volatility may continue—especially around macro catalysts like the FOMC meeting—the broader structure points toward a market quietly tightening its available supply. As reserves move toward historic lows, a future “supply shock” becomes increasingly plausible. Despite the weak spot market performance, on-chain metrics are slowly turning bullish, hinting that the foundation for the next major trend may already be forming beneath the surface. Related Reading: Ethereum Loses Momentum While OI Holds Steady: Binance Data Shows A Market Reset BTC Tests Critical Support as Market Awaits Direction Bitcoin’s price action on the 3-day chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase. BTC is currently trading around $90,437, hovering just above the 200-day moving average — a level that has historically acted as a major dynamic support during mid-cycle retracements. The recent bounce from the $87K–$88K region suggests that buyers are defending this zone, but the structure remains fragile as long as the price stays below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now sloping downward. The chart reveals a clear shift in momentum. After months of steady higher lows, Bitcoin broke its ascending structure in late November, leading to a fast drop toward the high-$80K range. Volume increased during the decline, indicating stronger participation on the sell side. However, the subsequent candles show shrinking sell volume, hinting at exhaustion among short-term sellers. Related Reading: Ethereum Shows Signs Of Accumulation As CVD Strengthens And Correlation Stays Elevated For a meaningful recovery, BTC must reclaim the $95K–$97K area, where previous support turned into resistance. Failure to break that zone would likely keep the market in a consolidation phase, with risks of another retest of the 200-day MA. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
During what many anticipated would be the year of a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, market expert Axel Adler has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency finds itself at the midpoint of a bear cycle. A Mild Bear Cycle Compared To History As of now, Bitcoin has recorded a modest year-to-date decline of 4%. However, the cryptocurrency has shown some stability this week, consolidating in the range of $89,000 to $94,000, with the latter figure serving as immediate resistance. According to Adler, this current correction, which stands at approximately -32%, is considered less severe compared to previous bear cycles. He emphasizes that approximately 88% of Bitcoin holdings remain in unrealized profit, while only about 12% of the total supply is currently at a loss. Adler points out that Bitcoin’s price action has remained relatively steady within the $90,000 zone, reflecting a mild drawdown in historical context. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Volume Explosion: Leading Meme Coin Barrels Ahead In This Metric The crucial question as the year approaches its end is whether this correction will stabilize between -35% and -40% from its all-time high, indicating a new, more “flattened” cycle, or if the market will follow historical trends that typically lead to deeper declines of -60% to -70%. Analyzing past cycles, Adler notes that major bear markets in 2011, 2016, 2019, and 2023 were characterized by a significant increase in the percentage of coins at a loss, often rising to around 60%. These levels typically marked capitulation points in the market. In contrast, the current landscape shows only 12% of holders experiencing unrealized losses, which diverges sharply from the patterns observed during past bear markets. Can Bitcoin Avoid Deeper Declines? The expert further noted that during recent local cycle peaks, only about 17% of coins were in the red, a figure that remains three to four times lower than traditional capitulation levels. This unusual configuration suggests that the current market may resemble a correction within a bullish supercycle rather than the final downturn of a full-blown bear market. Adler believes that the market appears to be testing the resilience of this correction structure, which stands at -32% from its peak, while maintaining a high ratio of profitable positions. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights The Condition That Will Trigger A 2,300% XRP Rally To $50 He argues that if Bitcoin can sustain this maximum drawdown above the -35% zone alongside moderate unrealized losses, it could bolster the case for a shift towards more “flat” corrections influenced by institutional demand and a structural supply deficit. On the contrary, should Bitcoin’s correction extend beyond the -40% mark, the likelihood of entering a classic bear market increases significantly. Such a scenario would pave the way for deeper declines, potentially reaching the -60% to -70% range, and could trigger a full capitulation phase in terms of unrealized loss metrics. At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $93,000, marking gains of 5% and nearly 9% in the 24-hour and 14-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com