Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $70,000 level after weeks of volatility. Yet repeated failures to hold that threshold with confirmation suggest that demand remains fragile. Each push above this psychological barrier has been met with renewed selling pressure. Reinforcing the view that the market is still navigating a corrective phase rather than establishing a sustained recovery. Sentiment remains cautious as liquidity conditions tighten and traders look for clearer signs of stabilization. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply on Exchanges Mirrors 2016 Levels: What Happens Next? Recent data shared by top on-chain analyst Maartunn highlights a notable shift among large holders. According to the analysis, many whales who entered the market near the $96,000 region are now sitting on significant unrealized losses following the subsequent price decline. After briefly testing those higher levels, Bitcoin reversed sharply, leaving late-cycle entrants exposed to downside pressure. This dynamic suggests that some large investors may be reassessing risk, either reducing exposure or repositioning portfolios amid uncertain macro and crypto-specific conditions. Such behavior often contributes to heightened volatility, particularly when leveraged positions unwind. Whale Capitulation Signals Market Redistribution Phase Recent data shared by on-chain analyst Maartunn highlights a sharp wave of realized losses among large Bitcoin holders, pointing to an evolving market structure rather than a static downturn. According to the figures, realized losses reached approximately $944 million on Feb. 3, $431 million on Feb. 4, $1.46 billion on Feb. 5, and $915 million on Feb. 6. These numbers reflect significant selling activity from investors who accumulated BTC near higher price levels and are now exiting positions under pressure. Such realized losses typically indicate capitulation among late-cycle entrants. When whales sell at a loss, it often means that conviction has weakened or that risk management considerations are taking priority. However, this process also implies redistribution. Coins do not disappear; they transfer from weaker hands to buyers willing to absorb supply at lower prices. Maartunn notes that the estimated cost basis for the newest cohort of large holders is now around $90,000. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent accumulation occurred near that level, creating a potential overhead resistance zone if the price attempts to recover. Markets often evolve through these phases of redistribution. While short-term sentiment may remain fragile, shifts in cost basis and ownership structure can eventually lay the groundwork for stabilization and future trend development. Related Reading: Ethereum Crash Below $2,000 Triggers Record Token Movement: Hinting At Capitulation Bitcoin Price Structure Signals Continued Distribution Phase Bitcoin’s recent price structure reflects a market still dominated by distribution pressure rather than sustained demand recovery. After failing multiple times to consolidate above the $90K–$100K region, BTC entered a persistent downtrend characterized by lower highs and increasingly aggressive selloffs. The latest decline toward the $60K–$70K zone came with a sharp expansion in volume, typically associated with forced liquidations, panic exits, or large portfolio reallocations. From a technical perspective, price now trades clearly below the major moving averages shown on the chart, all of which are trending downward. This configuration usually signals a mature corrective phase rather than a temporary pullback. The inability to reclaim those averages quickly suggests weak spot demand and continued caution among institutional participants. Related Reading: Binance SAFU Fund Adds 3,600 Bitcoin ($233M) As Market Faces Pressure The $60K–$65K region is emerging as a critical support cluster. A sustained hold above this range could stabilize sentiment and allow consolidation. However, failure to maintain this zone would likely expose deeper liquidity pockets below, potentially accelerating volatility. Short term, price action appears reactive rather than directional. Until volume stabilizes and BTC reclaims key trend indicators, rallies may remain corrective. Market structure currently reflects redistribution rather than confirmed accumulation, keeping downside risks structurally elevated. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 level as markets react to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union, with fresh concerns tied to geopolitical friction around Greenland. The renewed risk-off tone pressured equities and crypto alike, reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global headlines when uncertainty spikes and investors reduce exposure across high-beta assets. Related Reading: Binance Order Flow Suggests Ethereum Is In Correction Mode: Demand Still Missing Beyond price action, on-chain data suggests a deeper shift is taking place inside the Bitcoin market. A report by analyst MorenoDV highlights that, for the first time in history, “new whales” now account for a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales. Realized Cap tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement, meaning this change signals that a substantial portion of BTC supply has recently changed hands at higher prices. This transfer of influence matters because it reshapes short-term supply dynamics. When newer large holders dominate realized capital, market behavior can become more reactive, with marginal supply increasingly controlled by investors who entered later in the cycle and may be more sensitive to volatility. As Bitcoin battles to reclaim $90,000, this evolving whale structure may help explain why rebounds feel less stable and why selling pressure can reappear quickly during macro-driven pullbacks. New Whales Now Dictate Bitcoin’s Short-Term Direction Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing coins at the price of their last on-chain movement. When this metric shifts toward new whales—short-term holder whales holding more than 1,000 BTC with UTXO age below 155 days—it signals that a meaningful share of supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices. In other words, market control is moving away from experienced, cycle-tested holders and toward capital that arrived late in the trend. This transition helps explain Bitcoin’s current behavior. The realized price of new whales sits near $98,000, while spot price continues trading below that level. As a result, this cohort is estimated to be carrying roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses. These losses are not just paper drawdowns—they shape decision-making and increase sensitivity to volatility, especially during sharp corrections. On-chain realized PnL data suggests that since the market peak, new whales have driven the bulk of realized losses. During the recent drawdown, they repeatedly sold into weakness and used brief rebounds to exit positions. Reflecting risk management rather than conviction. Old whales tell the opposite story. With a realized price around $40,000, long-term whales remain deeply profitable. Their activity has been limited relative to the flows coming from new whales. For now, Bitcoin’s direction is being dictated by this newer, more fragile whale cohort. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Builds Without Overheating: Open Interest Climbs And Volatility Spikes Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Support Bitcoin is showing renewed weakness after losing the $90,000 psychological level, with price now trading near $88,300 on the daily chart. The structure reflects a clear downtrend from the late-2025 highs, followed by a failed attempt to recover. After a sharp drop in November, BTC stabilized and built a short consolidation base, but the rebound into early January lacked follow-through and quickly turned into another rejection. From a technical perspective, BTC remains trapped below its major moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance. The shorter-term average has rolled over sharply, while the broader trend line above continues to slope downward. Signaling that momentum remains capped, and sellers are still in control on rallies. The recent bounce toward the mid-$90K region was rejected aggressively, confirming that overhead supply remains heavy and buyers are not yet strong enough to flip the trend. Related Reading: Trade War Headlines Trigger $800M In Liquidations Overnight: Longs Get Wiped Out Across Crypto Markets Volume patterns support this narrative. The biggest spikes occurred during the selloff leg, showing forced activity and distribution. While the most recent recovery attempts have been met with weaker participation. As long as Bitcoin stays below the $90K–$92K zone, price action suggests the market is still searching for a stable bottom. The downside risk remains elevated if fear accelerates across the broader crypto market. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been realizing losses recently, while Old Whales have remained at the sidelines. Bitcoin Has Faced Loss Selling From The Newbie Whales In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the profit/loss realization behavior of the Bitcoin whales. “Whales” broadly refer to the BTC investors that hold at least 1,000 tokens in their balance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Puell Multiple Plunges, But Not Inside Bottom Zone Yet At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort is equivalent to $91.6 million, which is quite significant. As such, this group represents the big-money hands of the market, who can carry some degree of influence. Whales can be divided into two subgroups based on holding time. Investors of this size who purchased their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales. Similarly, whales with a longer holding time are called the long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the net amount of profit/loss that these Bitcoin whale groups have been realizing through their selling over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin New Whales have shown some loss realization spikes recently. This underwater selling from the cohort has come as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through a decline. The New Whales include the inexperienced hands of the market who tend to easily panic in the face of volatility. It would appear that this quality of the group has held through the latest crash as well. The Old Whales, on the other hand, are considered to represent the resolute side of the network. From the chart, it’s visible that there has been some loss selling from these large dormant entities recently, but its scale has been small compared to the New Whale capitulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be At Risk Of A Deeper Bear If This Ratio Compresses, Says Glassnode The fact that the presence of the Old Whales has been relatively muted through the bearish shift, as well as the rebound that has followed, could be a signal worth keeping an eye on. Speaking of the recovery, the Bitcoin rally has meant that its price has climbed back above a major on-chain cost basis level. As analyst Ali Martinez has shared in an X post, the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) suggests a strong amount of buying last occurred at $84,500. In on-chain analysis, strong demand zones below the spot price are considered points of potential support for Bitcoin. Similarly, levels above are assumed to be sources of resistance instead. One such major level is present at $112,300. BTC Price Bitcoin’s recovery has furthered during the past day as its price has returned to $92,300. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the recent bearish Bitcoin price action has put the network’s short-term holder whales into a significant unrealized loss. New Bitcoin Whales Have Dived Underwater In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has discussed about the latest trend in the profit-loss situation of the short-term holder Bitcoin whales. The “short-term holders” (STHs) broadly refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Chainlink To $100? Analyst Says This Breakout Could Be The Trigger The STH whales (or “new whales”) are the holders with 1,000+ BTC (equivalent to $110.8 million at the current exchange rate) who got into the market during the last five months. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the net unrealized profit/loss held by the STH whales over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH whales have seen their profit-loss balance lean heavily into the underwater territory following the recent bearish wave in the cryptocurrency’s price. This means that the members of this cohort are now carrying a heavy amount of net loss. More specifically, the STH whales are holding about $6.95 billion in unrealized loss, which is the largest for the group since October 2023, about two years ago. This indicates significant pressure among big-money investors, especially considering that the STHs control a notable chunk of the whale Realized Cap. The Realized Cap is an indicator that basically measures the total amount of capital that Bitcoin investors have put into the cryptocurrency. The Realized Cap of the new whales, in particular, corresponds to the big-money capital that came into the network during the past 155 days. From the above chart, it’s apparent that the new whales today control around 45% of the total whale Realized Cap, which is a new record. Considering that the cohort as a whole is underwater, this capital is naturally being held at a net loss now. The recent growth in the Realized Cap of the STH whales has come as the long-term holders (LTHs), covering investors with a holding time greater than the STH upper limit of 155 days, have been participating in distribution. Related Reading: Ethereum Death Cross That Last Preceded A 60% Drop Just Returned As the chart shared by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn shows, 337,300 BTC has exited the wallets of the Bitcoin LTHs over the last 30 days. So far, new capital has been coming in to absorb this selloff from the HODLers, but with the STH whales now under pressure, demand for the cryptocurrency may be starting to weaken. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $111,000, down 1.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the short-term holder Bitcoin whales have recently increased their Realized Cap share to the highest level ever. Bitcoin Is Currently Being Dominated By New Capital In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the share of the Bitcoin whale Realized Cap held by the short-term holders. The Realized Cap here is an on-chain indicator that measures, in short, the total amount of capital that the BTC investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. Changes in this metric reflect the incoming or outgoing of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retests STH Cost Basis Again: Is This Where Support Flips? In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of only a portion of holders is of interest: the whales. These are the entities carrying more than 1,000 BTC (about $111.4 million) in their balance. Whales can be further broken down into cohorts on the basis of holding time. Whale-sized holders who bought their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or new whales. Similarly, those who have a holding time higher than this cutoff are called the long-term holder (LTH) or old whales. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows how the Bitcoin Realized Cap dominance of these two groups has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, new whales have rapidly gained ground in the Bitcoin Realized Cap recently and hit a dominance of 44%. The STH whales represent the big-money capital that has come into the coin over the last 155 days. Thus, it would appear that 44% of the capital stored on the BTC network is currently “fresh.” This is the largest share of the whale Realized Cap that the STHs alone have occupied in the cryptocurrency’s history. To put things into perspective, the 2021 bull run topped out at a value of 31%. The STH whales gain Realized Cap dominance through two means: a transfer of coins between members of the cohort at a higher price and selling from the LTH whales. LTH whales are the resolute hands of the market who hold out through volatile periods in wait for profitable exit opportunities. These smart-money investors usually ramp up their selling during bull runs and transfer their coins to new money coming into Bitcoin. As long as demand is high enough to absorb this distribution, the rally continues, but once capital inflows drop off, the asset hits a top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Unlike LUNA & FTX Collapses, Says Glassnode: Here’s Why So far, the growth in the STH whale Realized Cap share has maintained, but it only remains to be seen how much room is still left. BTC Price Bitcoin has been struggling to recover since Friday’s crash as its price is still trading around $111,400. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The CEO of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how the Bitcoin whales have been showing a shift in their Realized Cap recently. New Bitcoin Whales Are About To Overtake Old Ones In a new post on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed the recent trend in the Realized Caps of the new and old Bitcoin whales. The “Realized Cap” here is a model that calculates the total valuation of Bitcoin by assuming that each coin’s ‘true’ value in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred or sold on the blockchain. The last transfer of any coin is likely the last point at which it changes hands, so the price at its time could be equated to its current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap measures the sum of the cost basis of the BTC supply. Or, put another way, this metric keeps track of the total amount of capital the investors have put into BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Nears 20%: Could This Trigger A Fresh Surge? In the context of the current topic, the version of the Realized Cap that’s of interest is limited to just two segments of the market: the new and old whales. Whales refer to entities carrying more than 1,000 coins in their wallets. This cohort is divided into two based on age using a 155-day cutoff. All whales bought within the past five months belong to the short-term holder or new whale cohort, while those who have been holding for longer than this duration are called the long-term holder or old whales. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the relative percentages of the Realized Cap contributed by these two Bitcoin groups: As the above graph shows, the Realized Cap of the new Bitcoin whales wasn’t anything significant before 2018, indicating that veteran capital was king on the network. Following 2018, though, the percentage dominance of this group gradually started to show an improvement. And this year, the growth in the Realized Cap of this cohort has blown up, with the metric’s value now sitting at $108 billion. For perspective, the indicator is standing at $113 billion for the old whales, which suggests the disparity between the two almost nonexistent. “Bitcoin whales are experiencing a generational shift,” notes Young Ju, based on this trend. “Realized Cap of new whales is expected to surpass that of older whales soon.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Not Sold On Uptober As Sentiment Remains Neutral As for the sudden sharp growth in the Realized Cap of the new whales, it’s likely that the inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been falling in this category. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,200, down more than 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com