Bitcoin has regained footing after a turbulent week of selling pressure, reclaiming crucial support levels and signaling early signs of recovery. Bulls are cautiously stepping back in, though conviction remains limited as the $110K resistance — a key psychological and technical barrier — has yet to be tested. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Flips Bullish On Ethereum: Now Up $15M On A $119.6M Long Position According to CryptoQuant data, underlying market dynamics suggest that a continuation of current momentum could fuel a potential surge toward $115K. The rebound follows a period of heightened liquidations and bearish sentiment that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $100K, triggering panic among short-term traders. On-chain metrics now show improving stability across several fronts. Spot exchange outflows have increased, suggesting that investors are once again moving BTC into self-custody, a sign of renewed holding behavior. At the same time, derivatives market data indicates cooling open interest and reduced leverage — conditions that historically precede healthier, more sustainable uptrends. Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Potential for Bitcoin Recovery Top analyst Axel Adler highlights that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV ratio has shown early signs of recovery following last week’s sharp correction. On November 7, the metric reached a local low of 0.9124, nearing the lower boundary of its historical range — a zone that has often aligned with short-term market bottoms. As of today, the STH MVRV has climbed to 0.9514, signaling that selling pressure among short-term holders may be easing. This stabilization suggests a potential shift from capitulation to recovery, as traders who bought at higher levels begin to reduce loss-taking behavior. Historically, when the STH MVRV holds above 0.92 and begins trending upward, it often precedes a renewed bullish impulse. Adler notes that if this pattern continues, the metric could rise toward the upper boundary of its range, typically associated with price levels between $115K and $120K. This trend aligns with Bitcoin’s recent technical rebound and improving on-chain sentiment. While further confirmation is needed, maintaining the MVRV above this critical threshold could indicate that the market has absorbed much of the short-term selling pressure — laying the groundwork for a potential recovery phase in the weeks ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Trading Volume On Binance Surpasses $6 Trillion: A Speculative Frenzy Unfolds Reclaiming Ground After Sharp Correction Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after a volatile drop below $100K, reclaiming key technical levels and stabilizing near $105,000. The daily chart shows a short-term bullish reaction following the bounce from the 200-day moving average (red line) — a critical dynamic support level that has repeatedly marked the bottom of corrective phases throughout this cycle. However, the broader trend remains cautious. The 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages are above the current price, and both are flattening, signaling that momentum remains weak. A decisive breakout above the $108K–$110K resistance zone is needed to confirm a potential trend reversal and shift sentiment. Related Reading: SharpLink Gaming Wallet Moves Freshly Redeemed Ethereum to OKX – Details If Bitcoin maintains support above $103K and consolidates with rising volume, the next target could align with the $115K region — in line with on-chain signals pointing to a recovery. Conversely, a breakdown below $100K could reopen downside risk toward $95K. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could target $139,000 next, according to this on-chain pricing bands model. Bitcoin Has Broken Past 0.5 SD MVRV Deviation Band In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where Bitcoin may be heading next based on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This pricing model is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin against its realized cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder RVT Nears Cycle Lows: A Healthy Reset? The former represents the value currently held by the BTC investors, while the latter is a measure of the value that they initially put in. As such, the MVRV Ratio basically represents the profit-loss balance of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the market cap is greater than the realized cap and the average investor is sitting on an unrealized gain. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the investors as a whole may be considered underwater. The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands takes the mean of the MVRV Ratio and calculates standard deviations (SDs) from it. It then determines price levels that correspond to these standard deviations. Below is the chart for this Bitcoin pricing model shared by the analyst. As is visible in the graph, the mean of the MVRV Ratio is currently situated at $94,650 in the model. What this means is that if Bitcoin declines to this level, the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to its mean. During BTC’s recent decline, its price slipped below the +0.5 SD level of $116,700. With the latest recovery run, however, it has smashed past it. The next level on the model is the +1 SD, located at $138,800. Bitcoin has surged above this band twice in the current cycle so far, with a top following for the cryptocurrency shortly after each break. The explanation behind the trend could lie in the fact that investors become more likely to participate in profit-taking selloffs the higher their gains get. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? CryptoQuant Says These Alerts Are To Watch The MVRV Ratio being 1 SD above its mean corresponds to holder gains being notably higher than the norm. As such, it’s not surprising to see that BTC topped out shortly after crossing the threshold during both of the 2024 breakouts. It now remains to be seen whether this latest surge above the +0.5 SD level will lead Bitcoin to another retest of the +1 SD band, or if the run will fizzle out before it can happen. BTC Price Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery run of almost 7% over the last week that has taken its price to the $119,200 level. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading around $111,000 after several days of losing ground below its all-time high of $124,500. Bulls have managed to keep the price above the key $110,000 support, but momentum remains weak as attempts to push higher continue to fail. Some analysts warn of a deeper correction ahead if buyers cannot step in with stronger conviction. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces Risk As Binance Leverage Ratio Skyrockets To Record Levels Top analyst Axel Adler shared new insights, pointing to the behavior of Bitcoin’s annual Adjusted MVRV. Currently, the metric has pressed against the 1.0 zone, meaning the short-term average (30-day) is almost identical to the longer-term average (365-day). In practice, this shows that the market is in a balancing phase: recent profit-taking and volatility are being absorbed by the longer-term growth trend, keeping the overall structure neutral. Historically, this 1.0 level has often represented a pause within bullish cycles rather than the end of them. It signals that the market is digesting recent gains as short-term holders hand coins to longer-term investors. Whether Bitcoin breaks down to test lower demand zones or stabilizes before another leg higher will likely be decided in the coming weeks, as traders closely watch this critical support zone. Bitcoin Adjusted MVRV Signals Pause, Not Reversal According to Adler, Bitcoin’s annual Adjusted MVRV is currently pressed right at the 1.0 zone, and the dynamics behind it tell an important story. The annual basis remains positive, and its curve looks largely horizontal because two opposing forces are offsetting each other. On the one hand, the 30-day metric has cooled significantly as volatility eased and profit-taking slowed after the latest push to all-time highs. On the other, the heavier 365-day average still reflects the gains of past months, holding up the broader trend. This synchronization between numerator and denominator compresses the difference, keeping the basis line steady rather than sliding downward or accelerating upward. In simple terms, the market is digesting the previous rally rather than breaking down. Adler stresses that this situation at the 1.0 zone should not be mistaken for the end of a cycle. Instead, it represents a pause within an ongoing bullish structure. As long as the annual basis does not reverse downward, the market is essentially redistributing coins from short-term speculators into the hands of more patient holders. There are no strong signs of capitulation, only consolidation. Over the next couple of weeks, the reaction at 1.0 will be critical. Whether Bitcoin holds firm and builds momentum or slips toward deeper corrections will define the next phase. For now, Adler sees this as more a matter of time and balance than a warning of a cycle-ending reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Aligns With Critical Indicator: Support Builds Around $100K Level BTC Testing Support Around Pivotal Level Bitcoin continues to consolidate after a sharp retrace from its all-time high of $124K, now trading near $110,823. The daily chart shows BTC struggling to hold above the $110K support zone, which has become a key battleground for bulls and bears. The 50-day SMA is trending around $116,600, while the 100-day SMA is near $111,600—levels that are now acting as resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA sits lower at approximately $101,000, marking the deeper structural support. A decisive loss of the $110K zone could accelerate selling pressure, potentially leading Bitcoin to test the 100K–107K support range, a critical confluence highlighted by analysts due to the alignment with the STH Realized Price. Related Reading: Bitcoin CEX Netflows Still Green Despite Large Sellers Rotating To Ethereum On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim the $115K–$117K region to shift momentum back in favor of bulls. Failure to do so risks further consolidation and market uncertainty. The rejection at the $123K level last week highlighted strong overhead resistance, with sellers stepping in aggressively. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates just below the $120,000 mark, concerns are mounting over whether the top cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum is fading. However, some analysts believe BTC still has room to grow, citing key on-chain indicators. Bitcoin Rally Far From Over According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin’s rally is not yet over. The analyst points to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator as evidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Spikes Without Price Drop – Strong Demand Or Delayed Reaction? For context, STH MVRV measures the profitability of Bitcoin held by short-term investors – typically those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days – by comparing the current market price to their average purchase price. When the STH MVRV is high, it suggests short-term holders are in profit and may sell. On the contrary, a low or negative MVRV indicates undervaluation and potential for further upside. Darkfost noted that during the current market cycle, unrealized profits among STH have yet to surpass the 42% threshold. Historically, every time the STH MVRV reaches around 1.35 – implying a 35% unrealized profit – it has triggered a wave of profit-taking, followed by short-term price pullbacks. As of now, the STH MVRV stands at approximately 1.15, well below the profit-taking zone. The analyst attributes this to the STH realized price exceeding $100,000 for the first time in Bitcoin’s history on July 11. At the time of writing, this realized price has risen above $102,000, providing BTC with a robust support base. To clarify, STH realized price refers to the average price at which all Bitcoin held by short-term holders was acquired. When Bitcoin’s current market price remains above this level, it reflects growing market confidence among newer investors. Darkfost added that BTC could rise another 20–25% before the STH MVRV reaches its critical level again. If this projection holds, Bitcoin could potentially hit $150,000 before the next wave of widespread profit-taking. Fresh Liquidity May Help, But Exercise Caution Bitcoin may also benefit from fresh liquidity entering the market. Fellow CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha recently highlighted a $2 billion USDT deposit into major derivatives trading platforms, signaling potential leverage buildup. Related Reading: No Mania Yet: Bitcoin ATH Lacks Hype, Suggesting Further Upside Potential Similarly, favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to support risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The recent weakness in the USD has fuelled optimism around capital rotating into cryptocurrencies and other high risk-reward assets. However, BTC inflows to centralized exchanges have been steadily rising as well, suggesting a short-term correction could be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $118,862, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin has officially broken through its previous all-time high of $112,000, surging to $118,000 just hours ago and entering uncharted territory for the first time since late May. The breakout confirms bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation and failed attempts, with price action now showing clear strength. With the psychological and technical barrier of $112K cleared, many analysts believe this move could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s next expansive rally. Related Reading: Altcoins Jump Off Critical Support Level – Relief Or Reversal? Bulls are firmly in control, and on-chain metrics support this breakout narrative. According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands currently stand at 2.25. Historically, Bitcoin enters the overheated zone around 3.0 or higher, suggesting there is still room for growth before reaching excessive valuation territory. This metric, which measures the deviation between market price and realized value, helps identify when BTC is overbought or undervalued relative to past performance. At current levels, the data points to continued upside potential without major overheating concerns, fueling confidence that this breakout could extend further. Bitcoin Enters Expansion Phase As Market Eyes $130K After weeks of tight consolidation below the $110,000 mark, Bitcoin has finally broken out, signaling the start of a new market phase. The breakout above previous highs has reignited investor optimism, not only for BTC but also for the broader altcoin market, with many altcoins now pushing above key resistance levels for the first time in months. This move comes amid growing anticipation of a weakening US dollar and renewed inflationary pressures as Washington adopts looser fiscal policies. The market is increasingly pricing in the effects of tax cuts, high government spending, and dovish political rhetoric—all of which create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Still, the macro backdrop is not without risks. US Treasury yields remain elevated, flashing warnings of underlying systemic stress in credit markets. This tension underscores the fragility of the current rally and the importance of monitoring fundamental shifts. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights using the MVRV oscillator, a model that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. According to Adler, historical data over the last four years suggests that when MVRV reaches 2.75, Bitcoin tends to face its first wave of meaningful selling pressure. If the same pattern holds true in this cycle, Bitcoin could reach approximately $130,900 before seeing notable profit-taking activity. While the current MVRV reading remains below that threshold, the model offers a clear signal of where long-term holders may begin offloading. Until then, the breakout sets the stage for a potential leg higher, with bulls now in control, pushing toward price discovery and a possible test of the $130K zone. Related Reading: Ethereum Back At Range Highs: Breakout Above $2,800 Could Ignite Altseason BTC Enters Uncharted Territory With Strong Momentum Bitcoin has officially broken into price discovery after blasting through its all-time high resistance near $112,000. The 3-day chart shows a massive bullish candle pushing BTC up to $118,683, representing an 8.94% gain in the last session. This breakout is the first clear sign of a strong bullish continuation after weeks of sideways consolidation below key resistance. The chart highlights a textbook breakout structure. BTC respected the $103,600 and $109,300 support zones multiple times throughout May and June before finally gaining enough momentum to pierce through the upper resistance. The recent surge came with a noticeable spike in volume, adding confidence to the breakout’s sustainability. Moving averages also confirm the bullish trend. The 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines remain aligned upward with increasing separation, suggesting that market structure remains strong and trend continuation is likely. Bitcoin is now trading well above all major moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day Average Funding Rate Drops – Bullish Setup Takes Shape With no historical resistance levels above, BTC enters a price discovery phase. The next psychological target for bulls will likely be $120,000, followed by the MVRV-based resistance level around $130,900. As long as BTC holds above $112K, the momentum remains decisively in favor of the bulls. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could face significant waves of selling pressure from the short-term holders around these price levels. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV Could Flag These Levels As Important In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has talked about the trend in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio of the Bitcoin short-term holders. The MVRV Ratio is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The former represents the value currently held by the investors as a whole, while the latter that initially invested by them. As such, this ratio tells us about the profit-loss situation of the network. Related Reading: This Late-Stage Bitcoin Bull Run Signal Hasn’t Shown Up Yet When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average investor on the chain is holding a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss among the holders. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of only a specific part of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The members of this cohort tend not to be too resolute, so they often react to market happenings. In particular, whenever the profit held by them gets too high, a mass selloff from them can become probable, as they look to realize their gains. Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio fell under the 1 mark earlier in the year as the asset’s price declined below the average cost basis of the group. With the latest recovery rally, the cryptocurrency has managed to break back above the line, putting STHs back into gains. So far, the MVRV Ratio has only reached the 1.09 mark, which isn’t too high when compared to past rallies. As such, it’s possible that the STHs may not be tempted to realize profits en masse just yet. In the chart, Adler Jr has highlighted two levels where profitability is high enough that significant selling pressure can indeed become likely to arise from this cohort: the 1.25 and 1.35 STH MVRV Ratios. At present, the former is situated at $118,000 and the latter at $128,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio Surges—A Warning For Investors? It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will rally high enough to retest these levels—and if it does, whether the STH selloff will act as resistance. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,200, up over 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The last trading week saw Bitcoin produce another price rebound as the premier cryptocurrency moved to reclaim the $95,000 price region. However, bullish momentum seems to have stalled in the past day amidst a minor retracement and an ongoing price consolidation. Notably, speculations over Bitcoin’s ability to sustain the current uptrend also persist. Interestingly, popular crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has shed some light on possible developments that could decide BTC’s price movement in the immediate future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Remains In Positive Zone — What This Means For Price Bitcoin MVRV Faces Resistance At 365 SMA In an X post on Saturday, Kesmeci reports that the Bitcoin MVRV is now facing an important resistance at its 365-day simple moving average (365SMA). The analyst explains that potential developments from this situation are influential to Bitcoin’s mid-term future. The Bitcoin MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is an important on-chain metric that measures whether Bitcoin trading price is relatively overvalued or undervalued compared to its realized price. Technically, the MVRV is used to indicate profitability, but this metric can also signal market stages, such as a price top/bottom, or identify the current price trend. Meanwhile, the MVRV 365SMA, which produces an average of all MVRV ratios over the past 365 days, represents a critical threshold for medium-term reversal. Typically, when the MVRV remains below the 365SMA, it signals a bearish market, while a crossover above the 365SMA is interpreted as a bullish confirmation. Following recent market developments, Bitcoin’s MVRV currently stands at 2.13, just slightly below its 365SMA at 2.14. To confirm a long-term bullish market despite recent gains, an upward crossover between the MVRV and its 365SMA must occur, signaling a potential medium-term trend reversal following the prolonged correction phase in early 2025. Related Reading: Ethereum Flips Key Resistance Into Support – Can Bulls Reclaim $2,000 Level? Bitcoin Network Fees Climb By 42% In other developments, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock reports that Bitcoin network fees surged by 42% in the past week. During this time, traders spent $4.03 million on transaction fees, suggesting a high level of network engagement. Meanwhile, crypto exchanges also recorded net withdrawals valued at $356 million. While this figure falls far lower from the $1.3 billion reported in the previous week, it indicates that many investors are still opting to keep their assets. Both the increase in network activity and sustained exchange outflows point to strong underlying demand and positive sentiment in the Bitcoin market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $94,233 after a 0.78% decline in the past day. On larger timeframes, the premier cryptocurrency remains in profit with gains of 11.27% and 8.59% in the last seven and 30 days, respectively. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
The past week has been a rollercoaster ride for the cryptocurrency market, as the value of most large-cap assets took a significant hit over the last seven-day period. Specifically, the Bitcoin price fell beneath $80,000 for the first time since that almost vertical surge in November 2024. As expected, the market downturn has led to discussions and commentary about the price of Bitcoin already reaching its top in this cycle. Nevertheless, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might still have room for a final upward rally. How BTC Price Could Go For A Final Peak In This Cycle In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Tarekonchain revealed the “truth” behind the current cycle, saying the latest market crash might be an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. This prediction is based on a key on-chain indicator, the MVRV Ratio. Related Reading: Dogecoin Open Interest Declines 67% In Three Months – Can Meme Coins Recover? The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is an indicator that tracks the ratio between a coin’s market cap and its realized cap. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it implies that more investors are considered to be in profit at the moment. High MVRV ratios are considered price top signals, as traders typically show a propensity to sell off their assets when they are in the green. According to Tarekonchain, the price of Bitcoin peaked in every previous cycle when the MVRV ratio crossed 3.5. However, on-chain data shows that this indicator only reached 2.7 as the price of Bitcoin notched a new all-time high around the $110,000 region. Tarekonchain noted that the Bitcoin price might not have topped out in the current cycle as its MVRV ratio is yet to reach 3.5 as it did in previous cycles. The Quicktake analyst also noted that while BTC’s slump beneath the 365-day moving average is undeniably a bearish signal, the premier cryptocurrency still has an opportunity to rebound from the critical $65,000 support level. “This does not mean the price must reach $65K, but rather that it’s a strong support level,” Tarekonchain added. According to the analyst, the MVRV ratio needs to at least cross 3.0 to be able to confirm the Bitcoin price reaching the cycle top. If the premier cryptocurrency finds support and successfully rebounds, investors could see BTC target new all-time highs — the final peak of this cycle — around $120K–$130K. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $85,000, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Is Solana In A Macro Trend Move? Charts Show Potential Shift Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The Head of Research at CryptoQuant has revealed why it may be too early to call a bottom for Bitcoin, based on the trend in on-chain data. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plunged Under Its 365-Day MA In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has talked about why Bitcoin may not have reached a bottom yet. “All valuation metrics are in correction territory,” notes the analyst. “It can take more time.” Related Reading: XRP Indicator Reliable Since 2022 Now Gives This Signal An indicator that Moreno has cited as an example of this trend is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This metric basically tells us about how the market cap of the asset compares against its realized cap. The “realized cap” is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the BTC supply by assuming that each token in circulation has its ‘true’ value equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In other words, the realized cap sums up the cost basis of the cryptocurrency’s supply. As such, the model can be interpreted as a measure of the total amount of capital the investors as a whole have put into BTC. Since the MVRV Z-Score compares the market cap, which represents the value the investors are holding right now, against this initial investment, it tells us about the profit-loss status of the cryptocurrency’s user base. The MVRV Z-Score is similar to the popular MVRV Ratio, but where it differs from the latter is that it also applies a standard deviation test to pull out the extremes from the data. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, as well as its 365-day moving average (MA), over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has recently witnessed a sharp decline. The reason for this drawdown naturally lies in the crash that the asset’s price has just gone through, which has put many investors into a state of loss. Despite the plummet, though, the metric remains above the zero mark. Below this level, the overall market enters into a state of loss, so the boundary has historically proven to be an important one for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mega Whales The Primary Sellers During Price Crash, Analytics Firm Reveals An important level that the metric has indeed lost, however, is the 365-day MA. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, past breakdowns of the line have generally led to notable periods of struggle for the Bitcoin price. It only remains to be seen how long BTC would have to stay under the level this time around, before its price reaches a bottom. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $86,300, down more than 11% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed where the next Bitcoin support level could be based on different pricing models. Bitcoin Is Currently Retesting 1-Year MVRV Z-Score Mean In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how BTC has been looking on a couple of pricing models recently. The first of these models is based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, which compares the market cap of Bitcoin with its realized cap and applies a standard deviation test to pull out the extremes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Finally Independent? BTC-S&P 500 Correlation Hits Zero The “realized cap” here refers to an on-chain indicator that basically keeps track of the total amount of capital that the holders as a whole have invested into BTC. As the market cap represents the value that the investors are holding in the present, its comparison against this initial investment in the MVRV Z-Score provides information about the profitability of the userbase. Now, here is the model shared by the analytics firm, that uses the mean and two standard deviations (SDs) of the 1-year MVRV Z-Score to define Bitcoin price levels: As displayed in the above graph, the mean of the MVRV Z-Score is situated at $96,300 right now. Bitcoin’s spot price has been trading around this mark recently, which suggests the MVRV Z-Score has been equal to its 1-year mean. So far, BTC has managed to recover back above this mean level each time it has plunged under it recently, but if the line ends up failing, the cryptocurrency might have to search for support elsewhere. From the chart, it’s visible that the next support level in this model is currently at $80,100. At this price, the 1-year MVRV Z-Score would be -1.5 SD away from its mean. Related Reading: Toncoin (TON) Investors Sitting On 54% Profit Despite Price Plunge This isn’t actually the next major on-chain support level that Bitcoin can rely on, however, as this second model shared by the analytics firm has a historically significant line that’s closer. In the above graph, the average cost basis (formally called the realized price) of the Bitcoin short-term holders is shown. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The realized price of the STHs has often acted as an important support boundary during bullish periods. At present, this level is equivalent to $92,000. As such, before BTC can retest the lower MVRV Z-Score pricing band, it will have to go through this line. BTC Price Bitcoin appears to have declined under the 1-year MVRV Z-Score mean today as its price is now trading around $95,400. It remains to be seen whether this is only a temporary deviation or not. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has had a volatile start to 2025, with price action reflecting both optimism and caution among investors. After reaching the $102,000 mark earlier this month, BTC faced a sharp decline, testing critical support at $92,000. Despite the selling pressure, Bitcoin held firm above this key level and is now showing signs of recovery, currently […]
The Bitcoin market experienced a modest recovery over the past week following the 15.7% correction in the latter half of December 2024. Amidst this recent price gain, developments from the short-term holders (STH) activity have revealed significant indications for Bitcoin in the coming days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Sinks To Lowest Since FTX Crash: Bottom In? Bitcoin STH MVRV At 1.1 With More Room To Run According to a recent X post, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared a data report on the Bitcoin short-term holders’ MVRV ratio in relation to market price. In crypto, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is a critical analysis tool used to gauge whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued. It is also used to track the holders’ profitability with values above 1 indicating profit and below 1 meaning a loss. Based on Glassnode’s report, the Bitcoin STH MVRV ratio currently stands at 1.1 suggesting that short-term holders i.e. investors who acquired Bitcoin within the past 155 days, are on average, experiencing a 10% profit. Considering BTC’s price fall in recent weeks, there might be increased selling pressure as these holders move to realize their gains, leading to short-term price resistance. However, data from Glassnode indicates that the Bitcoin MVRV STH ratio previously reached peaks of 1.35 in November 2024, and 1.44 in March 2024. These MVRV values suggest that short-term holders may tolerate higher profitability levels before triggering a widespread sell-off. If Bitcoin bulls maintain the current price recovery with rising demand, the STH MVRV ratio could rise closer to these historical peak levels, which could signal a confirmation of Bitcoin resuming its market uptrend. Related Reading: On The Horizon: Bitcoin $140,000 Projection And SOL, XRP ETFs Approval In 2025 Crypto Forecast BTC Must Avoid Fall Below $87,000 – Here’s Why In relation to the Bitcoin STH MVRV ratio, it is understood that 1.0, which indicates no profit or loss, is a pivotal value acting as a support during bullish trends or resistance in a market downtrend. Glassnode report reveals that the current STH MVRV ratio shows that 1.0 corresponds with the $87,000 price zone. According to data from the Cumulative Bid-Ask Delta, there is an air pocket between $87,000 and $71,000 i.e. there is low trading activity or fewer significant buy orders in this price range. Therefore, if the price of BTC slips below $87,000, it will hit no significant support until $71,000 translating into a major price decline. At the time of writing, the premier cryptocurrency continues to trade at $98,081 reflecting a 1.02% gain in the past day. With a market cap of $1.94 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest asset in the crypto market. Featured image from BBC, chart from Tradingview
Here’s what the historical trend of the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio suggests regarding whether the current bull run is over or not. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Could Hint At Where BTC Is In Current Cycle In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju shared a chart showcasing the past pattern in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio refers to a popular on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of how the value held by the BTC investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put into the asset (the realized cap). Related Reading: XRP Jumps 4%, Whale Reacts With $69 Million Coinbase Deposit When the value of the ratio is greater than 1, it means the investors as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it is under the mark, implying the dominance of loss in the market. The version of the MVRV Ratio posted by Young Ju isn’t the ordinary one, but rather a modified form called the “True MVRV.” This variation takes into account for only the data of the coins that were involved in some kind of transaction activity during the past seven years. Coins that are older than seven years can be assumed to be lost forever, either due to being forgotten or because of having their wallet keys misplaced. As such, the True MVRV, which excludes these coins that are probable to never return back into circulation, can provide a more accurate picture of the sector than the normal version of the metric. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the history of the cryptocurrency: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin True MVRV has climbed to relatively high levels during this bull run. This implies the average investor is carrying notable profits. Historically, the higher the holder gains get, the more likely they become to participate in a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking. Thus, whenever the MVRV Ratio rises high, a top can become probable for BTC. From the chart, it’s visible that the tops during the past cycles occurred when the indicator surpassed a specific line. So far, the metric hasn’t come close to retesting this level in the latest epoch. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Greed: More Cooldown Needed For Bottom? According to the CryptoQuant founder, the reason the market cap hasn’t overheated relative to the realized cap yet is that there is still $7 billion in capital inflows entering the Bitcoin market every week. If the current cycle is going to show anything similar to the previous ones, then the True MVRV being high, but not extremely high, could potentially suggest room for BTC left in the current bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced its Christmas rally as its value is now back down to $95,700. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions. Bitcoin Has Surpassed Highest MVRV Deviation Pricing Band In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Could See A 53% Surge If This Resistance Breaks, Analyst Explains Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network. Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report. In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value. From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility. Related Reading: XRP Binance Inflows Spike: What It Means For Price The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then. In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows. As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model. BTC Price Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin recorded another remarkable price performance in the past week, gaining by 19.16% according to data from CoinMarketCap. The crypto market leader established a new all-time high at $93,434 on Wednesday, as odds of achieving a six-figure market price by year’s end are now higher than before. Amidst the current market euphoria, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha has shared some market insights that may indicate an impending price fall. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Has Entered The ‘Thrill’ Phase, Here’s What To Expect Next Bitcoin Enters Profit-Taking Zone – Sell Or HODL? In a Quicktake post on Friday, Amr Taha stated many investors may be preparing for a cash-out as the Bitcoin MVRV ratio reached 2.64. Generally, the Market Value to Realized Value is a trading indicator used to measure whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued or to identify market tops or bottoms. Amr Taha explains that a Bitcoin MVRV ratio above 2 indicates that investors currently hold significant amounts of unrealized gains and are likely to commence profit-taking. However, historical data from late 2021 and early 2022, shows that profit-taking occurs as the Bitcoin MVRV ratio moves into a range of 2.5-3.5, and is accompanied by significant corrections. Following the Bitcoin price surge over the past few weeks, an MVRV ratio of 2.64 presents substantial potential for a major price correction, despite the minor price drops in the past few days. This sentiment is further backed by the asset’s relative strength index (RSI), which remains in the overbought zone. However, Ama Taha further explains that Bitcoin may sometimes only form a major market top when the MVRV ratio reaches as high as 4. Therefore, at 2.64, the premier cryptocurrency may still sustain its current upward price trajectory, if bullish market momentum persists. The analyst advises that investors monitor the MVRV ratio as a rise towards 3 would signal the potential for further price gains while a decline to a range of 1.5-2 indicates a local market top is forming. Related Reading: Bitcoin Volume Crashes 27% As Price Falls, What Does This Say About The Decline? Short-Term Holders Realized Cap Hits $30 Billion In addition to Bitcoin’s alarming MVRV ratio, Taha also noted that short-term holders have now accumulated a realized market cap of over $30 billion, a level last observed in March 2024. The CryptoQuant analyst stated Bitcoin has historically undergone significant price corrections whenever the STH realized cap reached similar levels, signaling another warning for investors of a potential price dip. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,738 with a 3.97% gain in the past 24 hours. However, the asset’s trading volume is down by 7.42% and is valued at $80.73 billion. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin is stretching gains, looking at price action in the past few trading days. At spot rates, buyers are “hungry” and aiming not only to confirm the rally of the past two days but also to close above March 2024 highs of around $74,000. Bitcoin “Golden Cross” Forms The optimism has been confirmed on-chain. On […]
On-chain data shows a Bitcoin signal that has led to at least a 70% rally the last four times has recently formed for the asset once again. Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Seen A Bullish Crossover Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the recent trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The realized cap here refers to an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price. This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, so the realized cap is essentially a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. Put another way, this model represents the capital the investors have put into the asset. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity In contrast, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value the investors hold right now. When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, so they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the metric under this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has seen a surge recently as the asset’s price has gone through its recovery run, implying investor profitability has improved. With this increase, the indicator has now broken above its 180-day MA. Historically, a surge beyond this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has proven to be a bullish predictor for the price. Related Reading: Dogecoin Breaks Away With 9% Surge: Why This Could Trouble Bitcoin In the chart, the analyst highlighted the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. BTC appeared to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions. Going by this precedent, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. It only remains to be seen, though, whether any such rally would be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio may point towards a top being yet to occur in the current cycle. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hasn’t Yet Hit The Peaks Of Previous Cycles In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock discusses the historical trend of the Bitcoin MVRV […]
Data shows three popular Bitcoin momentum indicators recently formed a death cross pattern. Here’s what usually follows this formation. Bitcoin Momentum Indicators Have Seen Bearish Crossovers Recently In a new CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed the latest trend in three momentum indicators related to Bitcoin. The momentum indicators here refer to combinations of some important moving averages (MAs) related to the cryptocurrency. The first is the “Active Address Momentum,” which involves the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the daily unique number of BTC Active Addresses. An address is said to be “active” when it makes some transaction on the network, whether as a receiver or sender. Related Reading: $170 Million In Crypto Longs Bite The Dust As Bitcoin Plunges Under $57,000 The number of Active Addresses may be the same as the number of users visiting the network, so this metric tells us how the blockchain activity is looking right now. Here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the Active Addresses over the last few years. As displayed in the above graph, the monthly average of the Active Addresses saw a cross under the yearly average shortly after the asset’s rally to the new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained under it. This crossover implies activity on the BTC blockchain has been on the decline. Generally, user interest keeps rallies fueled, so an increase in Active Addresses is needed to keep any more sustainable. As investors are starting to pay less attention to the cryptocurrency, conditions may not be right for a bull run anymore. The chart shows that this kind of crossover also occurred at the end of the bull run in the first half of 2021, although the second-half rally did occur regardless. The second momentum indicator is the famous Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which tells us whether the investors are in profit or loss. As the chart shows, the MVRV Ratio has also seen its monthly cross below its yearly, suggesting investor profits have been shrinking. This pattern has historically served as a death cross, with BTC shifting towards a bearish phase following it. The same cross also appeared just before the 2022 bear market kicked off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $40,600 If This Happens, Crypto Analyst Says Finally, there is also the bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day MAs of the Bitcoin price itself. Given all these negative patterns across the different Bitcoin indicators, the cryptocurrency may be heading towards at least a short-term bearish period. BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled recently as its price has dipped towards the $56,500 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is doing a retest that has historically been significant for BTC. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Retesting Its 365-Day SMA Right Now As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is retesting a level that has acted as an important psychological level in the past. The “MVRV ratio” here refers to a popular on-chain indicator that, in short, compares the value that the investors are holding (that is, the market cap) against what they used to purchase the cryptocurrency (the realized cap). When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the investors can be considered to be in profit right now. Tops can become more likely to form the higher the ratio above this mark, as holders become increasingly tempted to harvest their gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Extreme Greed’ Is Almost Here: Price Bottom Now Close? On the other hand, the indicator being under the level implies the dominance of losses in the market. Bottoms can be probable in this zone, as sellers become exhausted here. Naturally, the MVRV ratio is exactly equal to 1 suggests the investors are holding profits and losses in equal parts, so the average holder could be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, as well as its 365-day simple moving average (SMA), over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has been observing a decline since the price all-time high (ATH) set back in March. This trend is because BTC has been riding on bearish momentum since then. Investor profits, which had once ballooned to relatively high levels due to the rally, have taken a sizable hit because of the price drop. However, holders are still very much in gains, as the metric’s value is around 1.8 right now. The chart shows that this is around the same level that the indicator’s 365-day SMA has been floating around recently. Historically, this SMA has acted as an important level for the indicator, sometimes taking the role of support during bullish trends. The MVRV ratio crossing below this line has often meant a transition towards a bearish trend for Bitcoin. As such, this current retest between the indicator and the line can be significant for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Social Media Screams “Sell” As Bitcoin Crashes To $54,000: Buy Signal? It remains to be seen if this support level holds or if the metric will drop below it, potentially leading to an extended bearish period for BTC. BTC Price Bitcoin has only slightly recovered from its latest crash so far, as its price is trading around $56,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin prices are firm when writing and trading at around multi-month highs but below the all-important liquidation line at around $72,000. While up roughly 20% from May 2024 lows, some analysts are already questioning the sustainability of the uptrend, especially considering the level of engagement. Bitcoin Struggling For Momentum: Will Bulls Or Bears Take Over? […]
Though Bitcoin might be shaky, dumping in the London session on April 30, IntoTheBlock data now shows that the market is, after all, solid. In a post on X, the blockchain analytics platform noted that Bitcoin is in a mid-bull cycle. Despite the price cool-off, potentially accelerated by whales exiting, most BTC holders still profit. 86% Of […]
Here’s what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests about where the market is currently in terms of a top. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Seen A Decline To The 2.34 Level According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the BTC MVRV ratio surged high earlier this year as the cryptocurrency rally took place. The “MVRV ratio” is a popular indicator that tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset’s supply at the current spot price, while the latter is an on-chain capitalization model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern The realized cap measures the total sum of the value of the cryptocurrency’s supply, assuming that each coin in circulation has its true value at the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain rather than the current spot value. One way to interpret the realized cap is that since it takes into account the buying price of every token in circulation (assuming that the last transaction of every token was indeed the point at which it last changed hands), it essentially sums up the total capital the investors have invested in the asset. As such, the MVRV ratio tells us how the total value that Bitcoin investors are carrying right now (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been turning down in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has had a value greater than 1 for a while now. When the indicator has such values, the market cap is greater than the realized cap, and hence, the investors carry net profits. With the latest rally in the asset, this indicator has surged to relatively high levels, a natural consequence of the holders’ profits ballooning up with the price surge. After the recent drawdown in the price, though, the MVRV ratio has also turned itself around, as it’s now heading down. At present, the ratio has a value of around 2.34. “Traditionally, an MVRV ratio above 3 has been a reliable marker for predicting price peaks,” notes IntoTheBlock. So far, in the current rally, the metric hasn’t crossed this mark. It did come close recently, but the latest decline has meant it has gained a bit more distance to the level. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode Why have tops historically occurred at high values of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio? The answer is that investors in profits are more likely to participate in selling, and this temptation to take profits only increases as their gains grow larger. Because of this, selloffs are most probable when the market is holding extreme levels of profits, which is exactly what high MVRV ratio values reflect. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,200, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The price of the asset appears to have rebounded over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com